 To talk about some of the market action, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegsdad. Folks, you can read Teddy's Tiger Forex report. He puts it out new issues every Monday with updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check it out under the newsletter tab at TFNN. You can subscribe for $97, comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. Teddy's got some great insights in there as he breaks down the market action. And of course, don't forget about the webinars. Teddy is done. We have the archives available. He's got two up there already. And we've got some more planned in the future as well, but you can reach those right under the services tab, whether you're talking about capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads or Japanese candlestick pattern stock and option strategies with our man, Teddy Kegsdad. With that, let's jump into it. Teddy Kegsdad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Boy, where do we start off, man? I guess, how about some yields? Why not? Because they're driving some of the action at least. We've got some good action today, as usual, when we talk to you. But what do you think about the yield conversation, man? A little bit of a pullback today, but boy, yesterday, quite the acceleration. Yeah, well, we're definitely pounding these new lows in the bond and tenure markets, that's for sure. But this is what we've been talking about for the past few months. We're trading at levels that we should be at right now. Right now, the interest rate market is looking for fair value. I think it's starting to find it. So I think that the media sensationalizes things and the public may not like where things are at. That's because they're accustomed to a fantasy that was a complete illusion. And now I think people are starting to realize that they have to come out from that spell. Yeah, it seems like there's been a dramatic repricing. And I'm not sure it's slowing down just yet. We got quite a reversal from three in the morning last night, but boy, on a longer term picture, not really that big of a reversal considering where we've been and where we are right now. Do you have an opinion of the tenure in terms of where you think it might head to? The third year in the Tiger Forex report as well. But it seems like everybody loves talking about the tenure. We're hearing people out there saying five percent mortgage rates going eight. But what do you have a number out there for the tenure? Is that just going to be dependent on where we go with the Fed? Or do you have an opinion on that one? Well, actually, I'm looking at the next couple of economic numbers because right now we're starting to stretch the extreme for the yield curve. OK, it's from the long end to the short end. So is it are we due for correction? Absolutely. I mean, the volatility we've had over the past two weeks, let alone the past four to five weeks has been pretty, pretty extreme. You know, so when you start to push a trend like that, you got to realize that we're in a bull market for yields right now. So we're pushing the highs from the short end to the long end of the curve. OK, so as we're doing this, we should have some sort of pullbacks. You know, now we're already we already know that expectations are pretty much built in for how much the Fed is going to raise rates over the next probably six months. OK, so let's just say that that is somewhat reasonably right, that it's going to be a quarter to a three quarter point hike over that period. OK, that's pretty much factored into the market consensus already. And once again, we're starting to get to fair value. So can we see a little bit higher uptick in yields over the next like a couple of weeks or so? I think it's very possible. I wouldn't say that we should try and pick a bottom. I mean, like over the past two weeks, there's been some good reasons to fade the yield curve and you'd be you'd be very hard pressed to try and even get a bounce out of that. You know, so I wouldn't try and catch a falling knife with it. I do think that we're going to see a little bit of a retraction in yields. You know, I mean, you got to realize we're coming off of the end of third quarter. Now we're into the beginning of fourth quarter. October, we're going to see what happens with the equity markets. You know, I mean, but right now I think you have all these markets aren't extreme. Gold has been tanking. Oil finally is getting a little bit of a pullback. Obviously yields are hammering, you know, through through new highs, you know, and I think that that trend is going to continue. I mean, look at the dollar, how strong it's been. I mean, all these markets are trending so severe. Should we have a pullback? Absolutely. I wouldn't get married to any pullback. I'd be I'd be looking more for trend trades, meaning like trade the bounces right now. Look for that than trying to, you know, go fade the trend. I'd be very careful fading the trend right now just because momentum is so extreme. I appreciate the take and the analysis and I agree with a lot of it. And when you say, you know, fading the trend as in in the long haul right now, we have rates that are going higher and we have a dollar that's going higher. So is that, you know, the trends that you're talking about when you say that? Correct. Correct. Absolutely. Right now, right now, until until we see a reversal of the Fed, I mean, OK, could we set up a top in the yields over the next like even like week or so? Absolutely. I mean, look at how far look at how far the yields pulled back just over the past six months. You know, I've been talking about it for, you know, four months ago, five months ago, you look at these interviews, I was saying, hey, we need to take out the lows of last fall, you know, just to be even close to fair value. You know, I mean, we were so so much trading at such a discount. I mean, relatively, I remember it's an inverse relationship, you know, that people thought they keep thinking that's the normal. Well, that rubber band effect is gone, you know, and I think you're going to see less and less of that. So right now, yeah, I would look for the bounces. And when you get the bounces, expect a decent pullback in yields, but I wouldn't get married to them. I'd be very cautious, especially like look at the numbers. And if we still see low unemployment for the next three quarter or three months going into the end of the year, that's not what the Fed wants. They want higher unemployment. If unemployment starts to even look like it's down ticking, well, then you might start to see the Fed lean on. We're going to have a full basis point hike over the next like six months or so versus just a half a point or so, you know, and then also look at what happened with where the yen is at, too. We're at that 150 mark. There's a lot of talk about intervention from the Japanese bank coming in. Is that going to happen? They haven't said anything yet, but they are pushing that level. Is that going to really interfere with the dollar overall? Not too much, you know, in the short run, it probably will with that currency relationship, you know. But if the if the BOJ does raise rates and if other central banks raise rates, well, it's very good chance that our Fed is not going to stop raising rates. You know, are they going to be the first one to stop? Very possibly will be. But once again, remember, they're looking for certain economic numbers that we really haven't seen a pullback in inflation like they're looking for. You know, there are certain targets that we're still way off on hitting. You know, and if these if that trend continues, I think you have to still look at the fact that, hey, you know, a year from now, we could be looking at mortgage rates at 10, 11 percent. You know, I mean, do people want to hear that? You know, but that's a reality. And then I could see us pulling back to where we're at right now. I think we're we're setting right now. It's because it's resistance. Eventually, it's going to become support, the area that we're at right now. Yeah, it's it's it's a possibility to say the least, man, as in we're almost at eight percent mortgage rates, right? So people better believe that there's some risk to the upside, even though that seems like quite a number. Boy, eight percent mortgages seemed like quite a number not that long ago. And we're basically that inflationary. If you look at the levels we're at now, you know, over the past year and a half, we've seen a huge jump going from one percent to eight percent market or whatever. You know what I mean? Like that's a huge jump. If we go from eight percent to 10 percent, well, that's really right. Mathematically, it's not that much of a percentage rate. What is funny, though, is that it's not funny or interesting. I was looking at some of the numbers and we all understand it. But boy, when you're compounding that type of interest over 30 years, right? You start going from an eight to a 10. The the payment that goes with it, you know, it's a bigger dollar jump from an eight percent to a 10 percent increase than it is from a six to an eight. Obviously, because you're only going from six to an eight. You go from the eight to the 10. That two percentage point is actually adding more just real dollars to the payment. Right. It just just keeps going, man. Can you hang in with us, Teddy, for one more segment, man? Perfect. We'll keep talking about it, folks. I wanted to talk a little bit just about the Euro in there as well. Talk some crude. We'll come back. We'll talk to our man, Teddy. We'll talk some crude oil to wrap up the program. Stay tuned, folks. Welcome back, folks. We got markets in positive territory, S&Ps up by about 12, pretty much where we've been trading for the entirety of the trading session so far. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Don't forget to check out Teddy's Tiger Forex report and the trading webinars under the services tab, folks. And I got to talk a little bit of crude, Teddy. Quite the pullback from the recent highs. We're at six... Sorry, I'm jumping around my chart right now. We are at 86.72, man. You back it up, though. We were at $95 recently. What do you think of the action in crude? Oh, I love it, Tommy. When we talked last week, we were on the highs. Right now, we're trading in that area that 86 to 84 is where I'm looking for the market to pull back and stabilize. And then I think we're going to get a bounce and start heading back up to the highs again. I think that right now, the trend is your friend. Right, any type of downside action, I believe, is definitely a correction and a break to buy right now. And especially the area where we're at right now, I would say that, you know, could we hold it for a couple sessions or maybe even a week? Yeah, we might see some nice digestion. I think we'll chop around and still test support a little bit. I don't think we're going to get below the $84 area. I think the only way you'd see a turn is if we got back below the $77 range. And I don't think we're going to be anywhere near there for quite some time. I see a stabilizing here around the mid-80s and then starting to poke back up to above 90, 95 over the next couple of weeks. Yeah, the volatility is wild, man. And just I have it up on the chart here as you're talking about it, 86.70 right now. That high from August 10th on my chart, 84.89. And then interesting that high back there in April, 83.53. So both those areas potentially an area that it could trade to. Well, Teddy, I appreciate the time as always, man. I appreciate the conversation. And we'll talk to you next Wednesday, all right? Sounds good, Tommy. Have a great weekend. You too.