 What's up everybody? Today I want to share with you why the real estate market could be bottoming out soon, what that looks like over the next couple years, and why Generation Zers moving back in with their parents at record rates could be an incredibly positive thing for you and your business. If you guys would subscribe so you never miss another video, also click the like button for the YouTube algorithm. And if you would like to join me on December 5th at 5 p.m. Eastern for my 2023 business planning session, you can find the link in the description below. Lot of negativity going on, and I completely get it. People are scared about what happened back in 2008, but I'm here to tell you that it's a completely different situation and that the market is very, very solid. And it's really because of what they did with the lending regulations that they put in place after that massive crash. Now, dude, I think all this is gonna prevent a recession. No, but I think it's gonna be a super mild recession. I know a lot of people probably watching this right now saying there's no way, Ricky, you know, there's gonna be so many layoffs and there's gonna be so many foreclosures and stuff of that nature. I don't see it. I don't see it happening in any way, any form. Now, do I think it could happen on a very small level? Sure, it definitely could happen on a small level, but that's even in question, honestly. But my job here is to play the devil's advocate and really try to show you that more positive outlook on the situation. A lot of media outlets and a lot of YouTube channels are out there trying to really get you to click based on fear and based on negativity. I've said it on other videos and I'll say it here. 2023 is gonna be one of the greatest opportunities that you've ever seen. And think about it like this. When a market is totally expanded, like it has been for the past couple of years, it's really hard to grow because your market share is just kind of sitting there. If you have 5% and the market's expanded as far as it can, how can you grow anymore unless you go get more market share? But when a market is retracted and you maintain that same amount of market share, that same 5% and now that 5% grows with the market as it expands, that, ladies and gentlemen, is how I built my business. In 2008 I got back in and by 2014, I was selling 100 properties a year as a single agent. This is the exact situation that's happening right now for you that you can go out there and literally build a foundation that will expand over the next three to four to five to 10 years to places you've never even dreamed of, I can promise you. But if you just sit around and slow down with the market, nothing good is gonna come of that. You're gonna maybe even possibly have to get out of the business. And I don't want that. So my job here is to continue to push positivity your way, try to show you a different angle and give you a different perspective and continue building your business regardless of what the market's doing. One thing that we know is the market is 110% gonna rebound extremely strong. But the funny thing about this market shift is that when the market does come back, I wouldn't even really consider that a rebound because it's not really even gonna go down that much. Now again, I'm just looking at data. I'm not listening to headlines. I'm not letting people on social media influence the way I'm thinking about stuff and change my perspective. I'm looking at reality. And let's start right here with Chief Economist N. Shepardson, who says that mortgage rates appear to have stabilized a welcome sign for home builders and buyers alike. Now, what is he saying there? He said appears to have stabilized. He's not saying that it's not gonna go up anymore. It could go up a little more. Who knows what it's gonna do. We have zero control of any of this and nobody really needs to try to predict all that stuff at the end of the day. We know two things. One, it could do anything it wants at any time. And two, it doesn't matter what it does. Closings continue to happen. But as we watch this and we do see what's happening, it does seem like mortgage rates, not interest rates from the Fed, but mortgage rates have stabilized. And if you're a real estate agent that is actively in the market, trying to help people buy and sell property, you're prospecting, you're marketing, you're doing your thing, you've seen an uptick here in the last week or so of buyers, of sellers. I know that we have on our business. And I'm hearing from agents all over the country that are telling me the exact same thing. Let's break down what the National Association of Realtors is saying. Let's break down what the Mortgage Bankers Association is saying. And let's also compare that to what Fannie Mae is saying. So Lawrence Young, the Chief Economist at NAR, he's expecting a 1% increase in prices next year, okay? The Mortgage Banker Association is expecting about a 2% decrease in prices and Fannie Mae's looking at a 1.5% decrease in prices next year. So it's all three of these entities are basically calling for a flat year next year. Now, when I look at that and I think, okay, if that happens, that would be amazing to go through this market shift. Prices have shot to the moon over the last couple of years and we're gonna come down about 10% and then stabilize. I mean, that literally looks like, you know, that takes 2019 and we're still way ahead of where we were price-wise. That is simply amazing and what the driving factor here is inventory, okay? Inventory, where's it gonna come from? Some people say there's gonna be so many layoffs and so many foreclosures over the next eight months and all that stuff, I don't see it, okay? But if it does, it'll get gobbled up. But you've also got all three of these entities saying that the average interest rate for mortgages this year is 6.7 but the average next year is 5.4. So around a 5.5% mortgage right next year. Now, earlier this year when things were at 5.5, that was like a sweet spot in the market where it calmed down the buyers, it calmed down the sellers, buyers were able to breed, there wasn't as many multiple offers, there was a little more inventory and things really felt balanced out. Man, 5.5% interest to me earlier this year was like the perfect market. That was like a heavenly market. And all three of these entities NAR, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae all say and predict that next year we're gonna be at that 5.4 range as an average next year. And then we've got 4.5 the next year, 4.5 the year after that. These are all predictions to be taken with their grain of salt but it's something to look at and watch. And speaking of inventory, let's take a look at this chart right here. Back in 2006, seven, eight, we were in that three and a half to four million range in terms of active listings. Right now, we're just over a million. And when you look at this chart, we're really in that all-time low range right this second. And again, where's this inventory gonna come from? Builders have pulled back 20%, regular sellers aren't gonna sell, sitting on great interest rates. I don't see the foreclosure train coming anytime soon. Distress properties were 2% of sales. That has nothing to do with what might happen if we see tons of layoffs. I understand that. I'm not oblivious to that and I'm gonna watch that. But the grimace prediction of all of these is the Fannie Mae prediction for number of transactions next year, 3.9 million. So in 2008, we have 4.1, which was the lowest of that great recessionary period. And they're calling for lower transactions than that. So that'll be interesting to see how that all plays out. NAR is calling for somewhere in the 4.7 range. So is the National Bankers Association. I'm thinking somewhere between 4.5 and 4.7, we'll see where that ends up. But nevertheless, again, I'm just gonna continue to echo. It doesn't matter. Now when you think about the fact that this market shift was totally necessary for us to be able to build our business and really explode over the next three to five to 10 years, you also think about other things that were necessary and that it took this market shift to make happen. One of them is experienced agents going back to the basics. You know, for the past two years, they've kind of had everything fall in their lap and they haven't really had to go back to the basics of prospecting and marketing and doing the things that they needed to do and the things that got them where they are. So now we're seeing those experienced agents go back to the basics and continue building that foundation. And what we're gonna see is those experienced agents, businesses just explode like an atomic bomb over the next couple years. But it's also doing other things that are quite necessary, like taking Generation Z-Hers and having them move back in with their parents at a record rate. The reason why I think this is good is number one, it's smart and it's practical. And I lived with my mom and dad whenever I was getting into real estate and everything and that was really cool. Like I didn't have to pay rent. I could really focus on my business and try to really get this thing going. And that's another thing we need to spend less. You know, a credit card debt is going through the roof right now in the country and we need to really be frugal and really live below our means. That's something else that this market shift in this recessionary period is really presenting us. It's forcing us to come back to the basics of what we know we need to be doing. Saving money and don't spending money we don't have. But the reason why I like this Generation Z moving back in with their parents staying for us agents is because it's gonna build up so much pent up demand. How many years do you think the Generation Z-Hers are gonna wanna live with mom and dad? Not very many. And by that time the market has rebounded interest rates will be lower and they're gonna be in even more of their prime buying years. So if Generation Z-Hers are moving back in with mom and dad at record rates, that tells my mind that that's gonna create a massive real estate surge whenever these Generation Z-Hers decide they wanna fly the coop. I hope you got something great out of this. Leave me a comment and let me know your thoughts and we'll see you guys on the next video. Let's go.