 Gravity is real and stocks just don't go straight out the same way the semi-conductors broke the 50-day moving average here moved Onto this rise in support here the same way they did that as well Well, it's this is this going to be a carbon copy of what happened in these two sequences. I say yeah Welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success Profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and own your future Hey guys getting your buddy happy Monday and hope everybody had a good training day Hope everybody had a great weekend. I don't know if you can tell I got crazy sunburn over this weekend Red everywhere, but again, that's the price to pay right price to pay for a little bit of happiness in sunshine So let's talk about the market today was definitely a case of the haves and the have-nots when you look at The scoreboard today, you'll see a pretty big move in the Dow Jones industrial average They that water cooler cool to call or cold What the hell did I say water cooler talk right would call it? The stock market right and so the Dow Jones industrial average move and it was a very very good move Led by retail led by energy and it's not very hard the Dow Jones to move up to 300 points I think it's very very easy. It's only 30 stocks and when you look at the moves in retail You can see no pretty aggressive, you know, you have Walmart yet Costco, right yet Costco going incredibly strong You had target. I mean look at home depot has been doing so you have a really Aggressive run and this represents the economy. This represents Main Street America, but more important This is representing stimulus right spending and that was a good thing and that's kind of let's Go with the other side of the equation if you guys remember and this is only 24 hours ago If you guys remember from the weekend video We started talking about the semiconductors and the semiconductors that led us on a really big move Especially in the last fiscal calendar year just absolutely nuts The lamb researches of the world and the AMDs and videos of the world and all these companies that have anything to do With microchips with anything right they had a really really big run And if we notice what's been going on for the last month or so when everything else was getting pulled up Right the Amazon's the world Facebook's the apples of the world the leaders that took us higher if you remember from last night's video We talked about they were retesting very very big macro levels today, and we talked about this area here Last night on the weekend video this 241 50 level and you know fourth time was the charm They confirmed the 241 level and this is the first close below the 50-day moving average Making a move all the way down to the 239 40 level now. Why is this a big deal? if You trade any components of the Nasdaq 100 you're going to notice a couple of things number one There's a tremendous representation of the semiconductors in the queues. That's number one. There's a lot of cross listings on on both these ETFs and What happens is when you have such a strong dominant area of the queues Spread out in the semiconductors. They're going to take everything down So for example Friday Tesla had a really really big reversal right and today could have been Day two, but it wasn't Amazon had really great earnings and you know it rested You got denied off all-time highs, but it got hit as well You had names that got upgraded today for example like a Google. Okay got upgraded today went lower You had names for example I got upgraded today because they got sold off to heavily for a solar right they got sold off as well So you have a really big aggressive domino effect happening when the semiconductors are weak And just because your stock has nothing to do with the semiconductors if there is any type of tech Exposure, it's going to be brought down So if you look at the disconnect today with the Dow at one point up 350 points and you look at the Nasdaq composite that couldn't get out its own way You can really see that the market again does not like certainty But the most important part is the market does respect technical analysis And this is kind of where we are and if you look at charts tonight and you'll see a lot of really good-looking charts tonight They're not alongside guys. They're all on the short side And if you go through the semiconductor and this is why it's so much easier to focus on groups instead of Focus on individual stocks because your mind is not all over the place You already identified the semiconductor from the weekend that these were a very this is going to be a very very important day It held support one two three four times today was the fifth time it closed below the 50-day moving average And again if you look at what happens the first time stocks close below the 50-day moving average Well, look no look no further right here Here's the first close on the 50 and you're three days in a row going all the way back to this rising support So again if history repeats itself and again, maybe it does maybe it doesn't you have to love the probability of technical analysis Then we do have a potential move forward in the next couple of days all the way down to the two thirty six level again You can see where it held right this little orange line So a magnet to this area could be in the cards and it's very very important So when you're trading for tomorrow, you know, don't look for bounces right look for names that are about to confirm And when you look at the names in that group There's some names that again have a lot of support still like for example MU is not clean Right MQ has been below the 50-day moving average, but it's not clean I'm you guys have to lose this whole area here AMD as much as it's weak, right? It's not clean yet. It still has to lose this whole channel here When you start looking for clean channels look at a Vago right look at a Vago's channel This thing is one day away from really getting aggressive on the video which I call today to the downside You know now it's not more than just a little bit of a trade You know two three dollars now you're talking about the lows From 422 and the lows from the today are exactly the same lows guys So if this thing starts confirming this channel look how much room you have to the downside so stick to the themes right now the semiconductors are very very weak a lot of Tech stocks are getting sold on upgrades again We saw that today in Google You saw that today in first solar a bunch of other names as well But the most important part is and you have to really recognize for what this is this is not a self-sentiment, right? We're still really really high and really far away from the 324 level that we broke out, but this is still in the midst of profit taking so my point is there again We're not talking about Armageddon. We're not talking about the end of the world We're just talking about being prepared for the downside of the market Taking some cashflow along the way and making a productive day instead of sitting there trying to buy dips of stocks That had major major runs remember the higher a stock or an ETF goes Away from its pivot and the pivot on the cues were 324 the higher Probability you're gonna caught getting caught at some point in this channel here and start removing doubt now If you look at the cues you pretty have a pretty defined line this end here It's held now 334 once twice and held this rising moving average state So this whole channel comes in not only are the semiconductors going to continue to go lower now You're talking about everything's gonna come with it. So would be prepared folks trade both sides of the market be prepared This is just again an area of the market that you don't have to be a victim You don't need to sit there watch your portfolio bleed if you have to do if you have exposure To the semiconductors again Just just realize the technical analysis is real gravity is real and stocks just don't go straight up the same way The semiconductors broke the 50-day moving average here moved on to this rise in support here The same way they did that as well Well, is this is this going to be a carbon copy of what happened in these two sequences? I say yeah, you know, we'll see if they confirm today's action But for the most part they do look like there is going to be a day to Confirmation tomorrow and we can get some pretty good cash flow vibes And if you start looking at other names, especially NAS that composite They look look at you know beyond right beyond traded down to this channel here hit the 50-day moving average of beyond confirms tomorrow I mean look at much room you have to the downside as well Peloton, right? We talked about Peloton Couple days ago. I traded Peloton a couple days ago But now Peloton is starting to come into this macro channel And if this macro channel starts getting hit, you know again There's a lot of downside as well and you saw that today over and over and over again And I think today was very structural It was one of those very I wouldn't say there was an over abundance of value today But this was a excuse me the other way around I want to kind of switch around there This wasn't a value day that quote-unquote value day, but there was a lot of value Usually a value day is everything Amazon this that the other thing in beta This was he had a kind of pick and choose But the pivots were kind of seamless today and very very effective No shakes and the market kind of played out exactly how I thought semi's going we're going to lead To the downside the only pivot that didn't work was facebook to the upside just like everything else got sold But you can see structural balance return You can see orderly selling and when you have a back testing market that is just profiting That's all this is for at least for now until we start Testing major levels on the QQQ's you could still do very very well But you have to have a great game plan. You have to put in your work It's it's a must On the overnight and the most important part is be conscious To trade on both sides of the market just because the market's you know kind of swings on a dime And if you're not prepared you're going to be left Holding the bag and that's not a derogatory Phrase is just being you know unprepared and having your exposure open wide instead of being Protective of your capital. So going into tomorrow, you know, I am so biased semi conductors I am so biased A bunch of names that in the nazek 100 that look like they're about to break down But there is a flip side as well. Look at retail like walmart is a monster Look at this. You know first close on walmart Above the 50 day moving average. That's super bullish right really really bullish. Look at target Right. Look at target really broke out today looking really really good. Look at Costco, right? The retail names look very very strong. Look at look at the run on Costco And this is the first close over supply. So there is a rotation into other areas And if you do trade retailers and you do trade other names that a potential money flow could they could go into Then again, you don't need to concentrate on the short side trade whatever you feel comfortable, right? Not everybody has the same shoe size not everybody has the same preference or likes and dislikes everybody's different Everybody's gonna feel comfortable trading different aspects of the market But the most important part is it's your comfort ability not mine. If you trade retail Hey, this is it. You know, you have great charts and they start confirming to the upside tomorrow You don't need to worry about semi conductors. You don't need to worry about Names and nazek composite stick to your lane and trade it accordingly. So let's talk about today's pivots It was pretty pretty good day. Um pretty good day. You have a lot of stuff going on You had a lot of names that didn't confirm either I was watching coinbase This this channel here if this thing eventually I mean this thing has been a complete dud Since its debut and if you look at the channel here, I really like to set up the problem is it's failed so many times here You can see here this whole channel keeps on dying this whole channel If this thing ever starts confirming that 307 308 area I have to assume unless coin coin base goes zero. I have to assume it's finally going to break its downtrend But unfortunately today was not the day for it. Uh, netflix will talk about that in a second There was a definitive pivot that I finally found that I traded from 16 19 is a pretty good trade Uh, tesla never, you know, obviously never got to the 17 18 level Pool again pool is one of those scenarios that looks really good, but it's not tradable This is more of a macro trade for all you guys are trading long term pool trades Like I said super thin potential for option traders 427 needs to build really nice looking chart. Again, I don't have any it's just way too thin for me But this is again the first close over five 20s 427 Went to like almost 432. It looks good. It looks really really good again the pool market The pool market, especially in the northeast because of covet has been booming like it's absolutely booming and their business Is definitely reflecting that Rd. I forgot to watch our dfm. What the hell did it do today our dfm? 73 I'll never got there anyway. Um, there wasn't even watching that as well FedEx great pivot on on on FedEx. Good job by Darrell. Good job by will putting into the channel 296 and a half 297 needs to build and again look at FedEx FedEx has nothing to do with technology Look at this beautiful move here 296 and a half to 50 this thing went to this is a $10 move On on FedEx right FedEx. So again guys There's plenty of areas in the market that you don't need to concentrate to the short side to be very very whole Facebook obviously never got to 330 level. There was another pivot at 28 only went up a couple of bucks And here's where you started getting to some value to the downside FSLY 6280 for bills below can flush. Here was FSLY Here's a 6280 Went down to like 6085 a nice move there TDOC and by the way, thank you very much. This is where I love the internet in real life if I An adult man What's that tell him in front of you and say some derogatory word, right? There'll be some repercussions into internet. You could say whatever you want So I tweeted this out 167 needs to build some guy on stock towards the whole place goes f you man I hope you don't well he didn't say I hope you died, but f you like I told you to buy TDOC at the wrong price Anyway, 167 the internet's a marvelous place 167 if it builds below can flush trades a little bit thinner here was TDOC Right here is TDOC took out this whole channel here is 67 Traded down to 62. It looks lower. Sorry about sorry about it, buddy. I know I know your two shares will be safe But TDOC is looking lower. I still like this thing. It's a little bit thin Here was the video. I caught a nice move in the video today I I like it now more macro 600 held twice if it builds below can flush here was an avidia Took out the 600 right took out the 600 traded right to this bottom channel in the 591 level I'm telling you guys this thing loses the 591 level tomorrow. It's a lot of room down So keep an eye on that Facebook. Yeah, Facebook just didn't wake up. Um, it only you know It took out the 328 rallied like 50 cents and then completely died like everything else So, yeah, you could see technology which is bad here. So I bought Netflix 516. I sold it all the way up. It traded to the 519 area and then obviously It reversed course a nice move on Netflix take on the way down Next support 597 and went all the way down to 591 fsl y take on the way down Zoom zoom, I still like 313 if it cracks it can flush it could blow down It took out the 313 traded out the 311. I still like it lower for tomorrow Pool 531 on deck and that's it. So I I personally think the value tomorrow Isn't the semiconductors if they do have another leg lower Stay patient everybody again. You don't need to trade every day You don't need to trade every week. The most important part is realize where your strengths are where your weakness are Will make your weakness. It's not a pissing contest. It's not an ego contest You work very very hard for your money and make sure you're comfortable when you are allocating guys God bless. Have a great night everybody and I'll see you tomorrow