 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to CMC markets on the 4th of March Friday, the 4th of March. And today's US employment report for February. I think we can safely assume once I get past the disclaimers, which I have to do as a matter of course and compliance. I think it's safe to assume that I think today's employment report is going to be background noise when it comes to what's going on with respect to the movements in the wider market. We've already heard from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell earlier this week that it's highly likely that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points when they meet in just under two weeks time. There was some debate that they might be inclined to move towards a 50 basis point rate hike. The bond buying the asset purchases end this month. There was there was some speculation, particularly after the payrolls report we saw last month when we saw those huge revisions to the January and December numbers revisions of up to 800,000. And then obviously, this week's ADP payrolls report for January, which was revised up from minus 301,000 to plus 509. I mean, what sort of a revision is that you're talking, you're talking 810,000 jobs, a swing in the space of a single month. So, you know, in terms of the wider numbers, the numbers are important in the context of the US economy, because why they won't tell you an awful lot about what the Fed is going to do in just under two weeks time. What they will do is give you an indication as to what they might do in May and subsequent months. And I think that probably is the wider the wider debate because it indicates the strength of the US economy more broadly and the US economy is is much stronger than its European counterpart. And therefore, it's much more able to absorb more rate hikes. And I think in that context that will dictate how Euro dollar performs. Having said that Euro dollar today has broken below 110 for the first time since May 2020. And we can see that here on this daily chart. If I make that a weekly chart that'll condense it a little bit more and you can see what I'm looking at it in the overall scheme of things. And you can see from that chart there if I draw a trend line from those lows, all the way back here at 103 40. And then through the lows back in 2020. You're looking at the potential for further losses to test that line. And that line comes in around about 108 20 so we're at 109 33 at the moment having broken below 110 110 is triggered a whole host of stop losses. We're probably going to kick. We're probably going to kick quite a bit lower in terms of Euro dollar on this particular chart and towards 108 20. And towards that red line that I've highlighted all the way across here. And the least resistance. Essentially, you know, you know the way you've you've you've listened to enough of my webinars presentations and what have you to know that I'm very much a levels trader. And sorry I'm just going to have to turn something off because I forgot to kill. I forgot to kill my chat and I need to do that now. Well I still can. So please go away sir I don't want to talk to you. Sorry about that. I always forget to do something when I haven't done one of these for a while. So anyway, as I was saying, I'm very much a levels trader once we broke below this low here at around about 111. This is going to be a test push lower. And that's essentially what we've seen over the course of the past few days or the past three or four days. And the turnaround has been quite significant. And it's likely to continue irrespective of today's payrolls report but I will be paying particular attention to two numbers as I said, the labor participation rate, which did improve last month. It's up to 62.2, which was much better than the previous month when it was 61.9. And it was the best number since March 2020, when it was 63.4. And before that was 63.7 so there's still an awful lot of what I would call tightness in the US labor market, and there's still 11 million job vacancies. So what I also want to see is an improvement in the wages numbers, the average hourly earnings numbers. And they came in at 5.7% in January, and they jumped up from 4.9. So the expectation is for an improvement to 5.8 from 5.7. Assuming that the labor market is tight, people are returning to the workforce as all of those stimulus checks from last year starts to run out and they need to go out and basically pay for goods and services. And because rising inflation is eroding their disposable income, you would expect to see wage growth improve as well. So as long as we don't get an outlier of a payroll's number, and even if we do, it's not going to change the calculus with respect to the Federal Reserve Act in 12 days time. So stronger dollar I think is really my baseline scenario. We've already seen the dollar index break out. We've seen the CMC dollar index also break out towards the upside from here. And as you can see from here, we've got a hell of a long way to go before we get back to the levels that we saw all the way back in March 2020. So this 990 area here is going to be very, very key for the CMC dollar index. If we break above these series of highs, then we're likely to see further gains going forward. Sterling dollar, similar sort of story. It hasn't been all cable. Similar sort of story. We're starting to break down. I still think that we're probably now that we now that we've been unable to get back above this trend line here. We're probably going to come back here to 131.60. These are the lows all the way back in December. Stronger dollar should bring us back down here. It should drag Euro dollar lower. It should also to a certain extent drag Euro sterling lower because even though Euro dollars made new new lows cable hasn't. And that's a large consequence of the fact that Euro sterling is actually losing ground as well. We've broken below hit the lowest levels since the Brexit referendum back in 2016. And we can see that here. We're going to go all the way back here. And this is the last time we were at these sorts of levels broken below this, these twin lows in 2020 of 82 70. So the fact that we broken below 82 70 and look to be able to sustain that move suggests that we're probably going to head back towards around about another well at least another 100 points lower to around about 81 70 and potentially 81. The painful process you know sterling is probably one of the most painful currency pairs I've come across, and it's likely to remain so equity markets. Right. Let's look at this because this could be interesting. We've broken down on the FTSE 100. We've broken this little trend line here. I'm now going to remove that. So it's not cluttering the screen. We're now testing this trend line from these lows back in 2020. We really want to hold above this line here. We also, we also need to hold above 6800. If we do break below it. Now we've gone and we've done an impulsive move lower. And we've gone as low as 6980. There are thereabouts. So how we behave this sort of area through here also happens to coincide with the November lows 6970 80 is going to be very, very key in terms of the next support for the FTSE 100. We can hold here. We should we we I would like to see a fairly decent rebound back to around about 7050 7060 there or thereabouts. Given the fact that we've come so far this week. I would be surprised if we go much further, but in this fee brown market. Anything can happen. And that's something that we all very need to be very aware of headline risk in this market is going to be a clear and present danger to any open positions that you might have. Now obviously we saw last weekend. A complete 180 turn on the part of EU leaders with respect to sanctioning Russian banks. So, in the lead up to last Friday, and last weekend, we had the rather shabby spectacle of Italian policymakers lawmakers looking for a carve out the Gucci for Russian sanctions. You know, something that I think they certainly realize in the cold light of day was, well, yeah, it was pretty shameful. And they were persuaded perhaps that maybe that wasn't such a good look. And on the Monday morning, the markets came aggressively lower. Obviously that was that was that was last Friday. And obviously now since then we've seen a complete reversal. Unfortunately, and that gives you an indication those two candles that give you complete indication. This was fudging the sanctions fudging the sanctions. Maybe not. Now let's really go all in and hit Russian banks. And this is where we are at the moment. And then obviously, of course, we've got this morning's news about the Russian nuclear reactor. Now we've got the DAX. The DAX is also approaching some fairly key support levels as well. This level here. Now I've done some fifth levels from the lows back in 2020 to the peaks all the way back in earlier this year. 13,100 fairly key support level on the DAX. Obviously the DAX is getting hit harder than most simply because of the fact that Germany and pretty much Europe is on the frontline of this war. You've got PPI prices, factory gate prices, input prices already above 30%. You've got CPI at a record higher 5.8% in the EU. And that's before all of these inflation spikes that we've seen in industrial metals, in energy, and in agricultural commodities. I mean, wheat alone is up 50% year to date. And it's unlikely that that is going to come down anytime soon. And if we can magic up some spare capacity from somewhere with a missing output that Russia and Ukraine bring to market. They're pretty much reliant on a good harvest elsewhere in the world. So all of these rising costs are going to hit the margins of European companies going forward. They're going to hit the cost of living and they're going to get hit their input costs. So profits are going to be lower. There was an article on Bloomberg earlier today saying that European outflows last week were at a record level. Well, if they're at a record level last week, God only knows what they've been like or going to be like this week. So we're looking at some very key support levels for European indices ahead of the weekend. So as I said, that's why the payrolls numbers are probably neither here nor there. They will probably give a steer in terms of what the Fed will do after March, particularly when it comes to balance sheet reduction. When it comes to pretty much everything else and policy more broadly. But overall in the wider scheme of things, when it comes to yields, yields at the moment aren't reacting to inflation risk. What they are reacting to is the reacting to general risk off. You can see that here in this US Treasury, in this US 10 year Treasury and UK guilt as well. We've seen some big falls in that. By US Treasuries, UK Guilts, German bonds, they've gone back into negative territory because they're recycling money out of stocks and back into the Haven trade, despite rising inflation risk. At some point, those those yields will start to come back up again. But for the here and now what you're seeing is an awful lot of capital flow into safe haven bonds and to a lesser extent, gold as well. But even with gold, we've got to be we've got to be very, very aware that there's a big level of resistance all the way up near 1965, 1975, 1980. And then of course you've got the record highs of August 2020 as well. So we are approaching record highs on gold. So we also need to be aware of that. And obviously the NASDAQ as well US markets holding up fairly well, still above their January lows. So we do need to be aware of that. So the numbers are coming out in around about 30 seconds so I can quickly do that. Resistance on the S&P 14,380. Very quickly resistance on the sorry that was the NASDAQ resistance on the S&P is around about 4,400. And again, above the January lows holding up better than European markets, largely on the basis of their geographical location, more than anything else. So the numbers are out coming out shortly. And I will be quiet and wait for the numbers to hit the tape. And here we go. Average early earnings. Well, that's a big drop. It's 5.1% on the US. So that's a big drop unemployment rate falls to 3.8%. So that's a fairly decent number headline 678 fairly decent number there looking for a vision on the January number and not seeing one yet. I'm not seeing a participation rate number quite yet either. So let's do 678 on the payrolls number. We're just going to publish that to the platform so that you guys can see it. 3.8 on the unemployment revision two month payroll net revision still not seeing a revision for January. Average early earnings on the month on month basis. And that's been revised down. So that's potentially the slightly dollar negative that so you could actually see your dollar start to squeeze higher. On the back of those, those wages numbers because we dropped from 5.8 to 5.1. Which means that we're definitely going to any five basis points in March and the big question is now, what's happened to wage growth in the US economy appears to have stalled out. The revision 481 Sony and modest revision on the January number by 14,000 higher. Participation rate 62.3%. So again, that's slightly higher. So again, US labor market still looks in fairly decent shape. The disappointing one though is this here revised down from 5.7 to 5.5. In January for wages and 5.1. Well below expectations for the February numbers there. So let's have a look to see what that does to the overall picture when it comes to dollar yen. Keep an eye on this trend line on dollar yen. This is this is going to be a very, very key support level. It's been in place pretty much since September last year. It's like it's a little bit like watching paint dry dollar yen, but it is a generally decent bellwether of overall dollar sentiment. But overall we're getting a squeeze high now in euro dollar. And I would expect to see that on the back of those wages numbers. So you're getting a little bit of a rebound on Europe. They're Steve. So that might help you in terms of your euro Aussie position. A weaker dollar will definitely help you in that and help you pull back on your euro Aussie. In terms of Aussie dollar because I know I'm going to get asked that is that you will find that we've we've broken higher on Aussie dollar above the 200 day moving average today. The big question I think we have I have with respect to that is can we hold above the 200 day moving average. Let me just draw a trend line in here from these peaks back in 2021. See whether or not. Yeah, that line there means that we still got a little bit of more upside in in Aussie dollar. Maybe a test back to this 74 area 7450, perhaps the short to medium term, but certainly in terms of this weaker dollar number that may help you out on a little bit of a pullback on your euro Aussie on your euro Aussie position. Let's have a look at that for you. Maybe so you can get a bit get a get a decent look at it on a slightly shorter term basis is probably not helping you that much thinking about it. No it's not not as much help as perhaps it would have been probably because there's not much, not much stuff going on. It's all it's all dollar flow at the moment. Certainly as certainly a drop in the value of the euro will help you getting a bit of a rebound in stock markets more broadly as well. On the back of that number. Right does anyone have any questions on anything that I haven't quite covered yet. I just lost just lost my chat just lost my chat box. One other thing to keep an eye out for us just occurred to me I was doing Brent crude earlier today. And there's a fairly decent resistance level comes in to a long way back mind you from 2012. And it's 126 and a half 126 and a half dollars. So, so we've got that resistance there and obviously we've obviously also got yesterday's highs at 120. So there is still, there is still potential further upside on Brent crude, still potential further upside on gold. It's certainly been driven by very much whisk off Brent crude, higher West Texas higher actually been slightly more orderly the move higher in WTI than it has for Brent. Let's have a look at the longer term targets on that. It's slightly less cluttered this particular chart. But again, you've got these series of peaks all the way back through here. So if I draw that line in there, and we're pretty much through them on WTI. WTI is actually running ahead of Brent. It comes to peaks back in 2010 2012. There's a slight disconnect there. But overall, this is very much a supply story when it comes to WTI and pretty much every other commodity on the planet. Stirling Canada yen. Okay. Right, I will start with Canada yen. Right. Let's see if I can find that. There we go. I can remember when I used to trade Aussie yen back in the day when I was a Commonwealth Bank of Australia. That was fun. It was usually the Aussie that moved it. Well that's shaping up quite nicely old Canada yen. It's fairly decent resistance at around about 92 right in the middle of it at the moment. So certainly I think in terms of Canada yen, there's potential for further downside there a retest of this trend line from the lows through here. It's certainly worth keeping an eye on that. Actually, if we extend that back, we can actually make that a slightly longer line. It's probably not as useful as perhaps this one here. So Canada yen looks as if it's probably going to drift back down towards the 200 a moving average and support here, where we where we could find a little bit of a rebound. Certainly I think Canada yen doesn't look as if it's probably going to head back low while below 92. So, certainly a stop loss below 90 stop loss above 92 might be a bit of a bit of a trade there. What else sterling yen absolutely surf sterling yen. We're just sitting on cloud support at the moment and these series of lows through here. So again approaching a fairly key support level. Let me just extend that back to see whether or not it's an actual relevant line. It's quite interesting to see how this 152 80 level is acted as a resistance and a support over time. So it'll be interesting to see how it reacts in and around these lows on any test lower today. It might be worth my act is a little bit might prompt a little bit of a rebound back into the cloud cover that we've got here. This is these are the sorts of patterns that I like that I like to look for when I'm looking for support resistance areas to see areas where a market is acted as support and resistance and equal measure. And certainly we've got that in sterling yen. So obviously if we do break below there, then we're going to break quite significantly back towards the series of lows, all the way back at 149 around about there. sterling yen hopefully that helps. dollar mix your pet favorite steam yep okay let's have a look at that. I'm surprised you're still playing around with that I mean that must be like watching paint dry. Okay, let's have a look at that. I mean, setting in the right direction assuming you're still long. Russian rubble. Well you might as well stick with it you've been longer you've been long of it enough. It's been long of it long enough so you might as well stick with it now you might as well run it the fairly decent stop at least it's time to move for you today. Yeah Russian rubble at the moment it's currently suspended. It's on reduce only so you can't trade Russian rubble at the moment. It's on reduce only so you can't take out new positions on Russian rubble. Due to the fact that it's sanctioned. And you may well get some moves on it when Russian stock markets reopen and people are able to get out of their Russian positions. So, given the fact that the Russians have closed this stock market until the eighth of March now for from the fifth to the age fifth to the eighth to the eighth. You might see some movement in Russian rubble then but we'll have to wait and see how that goes. I mean it's it's on reduce so unless you've already got a position in Russian rubble you can't take it any new ones. But everything has a junk value of just someone's just said hopefully it has a junk value everything has a junk value. It's just not, it's just a world below what its current value is, I would suggest. As I say, this is this is currently where we are I think I've covered all the major major support levels for the major markets if I haven't. Please let me know so that I can cover it for you. Otherwise, given the fact that this payrolls number was had a couple of interesting bits in it summarize an increase in the participation rate positive and slightly disappointing the decline. In the average early earnings numbers, which has prompted a little bit of dollar weakness in the short medium term, but in the wider scheme of things. The wider theme is basically what's been driving markets today. And obviously that's events in in southern Ukraine and the attack on the nuclear power plant and I think that's the bigger quote that's the big concern at the moment. Have you got a Russian president who's fairly blase about attacking nuclear installations, or saying that he's prepared to use nuclear weapons. Don't be surprised if markets are a bit jittery and that's what we're seeing today. So, all I would say is, please be nimble, please be safe. Don't take too many risks. And I hope you will have a very pleasant weekend and hopefully speak to you all same time. Same place. Four to five weeks from now on the on the first of April, hopefully, assuming nothing bad has happened. Otherwise, I'll wish you all adios because my voice is now starting to give out a little bit. And catch up with my weekly video, which you can find on the website. Thanks very much for listening guys and have a hope you will have a great weekend.