 Hello traders at CMC Markets. Welcome to another update from me, Trevor Neal, Research Director, Beta Group and also at RRG Research. I'm recording this in London and I'm presenting to you on the 4th of July for the 5th of July. In this update I'm going to look at currencies, particularly the yen, the euro and the pound. We're also going to look at gold and we're going to look at crude. Last week we saw some steadiness in the US dollar and some of the currencies which have been doing better than the dollar have eased back slightly and moved from the leading quadrant in the relative rotation graph here with a daily sampling and turning south-westerly in direction but still over on the right so generally stronger than the dollar itself except for the Japanese yen which is looking really poor and still looking poor and still heading westerly which is weakening versus the dollar which is in the middle here. So we've got the furthest the right is the Canadian dollar which is a favorite of ours. Pound which has had that strong bounce, easing back a little bit, euro the same, swissy the same Australian dollar as well despite what's going on in the interest rate side for that but all of them still to the right of the dollar. And here we have gold not doing as well as the dollar not doing as badly as the yen. Flipping around here quite sharply which is quite interesting but in the lagging quadrant. And the other last thing to comment on this Australian dollar move here you see the length of that tail there that's a big swing from just a few days ago being in the leading quadrant down into threatening. So let's have a look at some of these charts individually. Now we're going to take a short-term look at the markets but I'm going to start when I'm looking at the yen here looking at the very long-term chart. These are monthly bars here because I want to bring back years because we're breaking levels and testing levels of decades ago. This rising is of course the dollar rising and the the yen falling and we're moving towards the resistance of 1998 which we tested and we've recoiled to from and then we're moving up towards it probably the next time quite possibly going to break it and then the next dollar resistance level is at 160. So quite tremendous move here down in the yen and and it looks as though it's exceeding but we're looking back in history really. This hype was made in 1990 and high in the dollar. This is what we're up against now so now I'm going to hone in right into this area here. Now on the yen we have zoomed in into the really the last year of trading and we are near that multi-year resistance level around 148 and then the high up here which is right at high for the dollar of 152. I put in here a Fibonacci projection. We've had this little consolidation here so I think this move was impulsive move. This is a pullback move and then this is now the impulsive move. A, B, C, D for it would be 145 at 60. So I think this move can mechanics 145 at 60. Now we have to see what happens at that point. If it zooms through it so if it powers through the 145 at 60 level then I think we're very likely to head up to the 161.8 level which is 150 that high there but it then depends on the behavior at the 100% level. We are seeing some loss of momentum currently and this may be to do with the 4th of July holiday but you see here the MACD, the daily MACD is looking positive, is above its signal line but it's the gap is narrowing and on the RSI we can see it's turned down in here. This happens of course and then and we recover and it's particularly the market moves very strongly when the pullback is to below 50% if that were to happen but let's watch this very closely. Obviously the dollar, the yen is extremely weak and that's still the case. Just lost a little bit of edge. My suspicion is that's only really to do with the holiday. We're close to getting to the minimum price objective from this ABCD move there and that's 145 at 60 just ahead of us there now and as I say my experience is that if we hesitate at that level then it is the end of the move. We've done 100% but if we zoom through it so we have a very powerful big-bodied candle long long bar close near the high then we very often go straight to 161.8 which is up at 150 and we've seen on the RRG chart how the euro has moved into the weakening quadrant there and is performing rather weakly and that's this action in here as it moved down against the US dollar and it's feeling the pressure from this area from what just above 110 up to 111 the high and these three tops in here and then this top in here. There's a lot of pressure at that level there. We're feeling it now the market is easing off the daily MACD is crossing the RSI is pulling back here and looks like going lower and so further easing can take place this currency pair. If we get through the 108.45 level these two lows in here then I think it there's very little to stop it going down to 107.88 and then into the zone of support which is down to this low of 106.43. This area here should be supportive and we should hold above that level to maintain this pattern of higher lows but in the shorter term in the next few days it looks as though it will remain under pressure and we'd expect to see it go lower it just can it hold above this 108.40 low here. If it can that's fine and put in a higher low again up there and continue to press against this significant resistance above 110 but if it does break down then I think we can revisit the support down in this area here which as I said is from 107.80 down to the low here 106.40. Sterling has also suffered from this recent amount of steadiness in the US dollar and here we see it easing down here but it's come back to support and quite good support from this last high in its zigzagging journey higher around 126.30 so we're making higher lows it's been doing really well but of course we have corrections on the way and this is looks like another correction is taking place so we see the ROG moving down into the weakening quadrant but what's going to happen next we bounce well from that 126.30 support the MACD is still negative that's a lagging indicator the RSI however I think has turned up and I would be looking for this momentum change so this breaking up through the the trend down in momentum breaking up like that means that the downside momentum has abated and it looks as though that we're starting to move up here so this is probably possibly we're at the at the beginning of a return to the direction of the trend it's we're at this point here so after a pullback then rallying after the pullback then starting to rally so what we'd look for is is is a good powerful move up from here and to tell us the move is underway we've got protection below this previous high here which was resistance now support so below this low here and then I think that we could project up and let's do the count just move the prices down there a bit I'm going to put on the Fibonacci expansion so a b c where's d for it a b c and here we have 100% is 131 15 a b then add the length of a b to c and that gives you 131 15 and so if this is starting to turn up again and the pullback is complete which it does look as though it might be the case and we're on the cusp of that would catch the turning point around this the equivalent of this area here and we know if we're wrong if we break this low here at 125 80 now moving to our cash gold we are coming down we saw that in the ROG chart the weakness of gold here we see in the MACD it's coming down and the signal line is nice and smoothly moving lower making a new low in here the MACD itself is close to crossing because we are having a little bit of a bounce here but I'm afraid to say this does look like a countertrend bounce to me we're approaching resistance from the recent lows at 1933 got significant resistance of course at 1960 we've got the downtrend line which is currently right where we are now and so we're coming up towards bouncing towards a resistance in a downtrend we look at the RSI and we can see that it's it's come down and it's bouncing there it's nearly at the 50% level any any above 50% is corrected and this looks I'm afraid to say very much like a correction to me a impulse reaction the next move I would imagine is likely to be another impulse if we break the 1893 level there's nothing really to stop it coming down to the 1860 level down here we move very fast up in this area here so it's vulnerable to turning lower right where we are now and if it breaks that low and gets probably through the 1884 level then I think that it will bring in more fresh selling there if we move above the let's say 1940 then all that I've said is wrong and we're pushing in towards into the resistance impressively and possibly putting it in a low and ending the move but to me it looks more like this is a reaction in a downtrend a rather weak reaction which is about to reassert itself in the next few days WTI crude is in a downtrend we've got a pattern of high lower high lower high maybe lower high there we've got substantial resistance from 73 up to about 84 85 area is a massive area of resistance so we're below that resistance it is also supported by these big shadows here so we traded down very briefly to 64 and a couple of times again also 67 bounce bounce quite impressively so we've got support which is in the form of rejection and then we've got resistance which is in the form of consolidation and we're also in the form of a downtrend line the strong of those two is the resistance that consolidation from 73 upwards is really a ceiling for the market and then we've got the downtrend which is being a bade right now so the vulnerability really is on the downside for this market the MACD is drifting higher in here but that's really an attempt to return to zero after the fall here it's not really a bullish sign at all on the RSI we are going up a little bit in line with the market here but it's the reading itself is at 57 and so it's a very neutral reading so here we are at a neutral point I would say pressured by consolidation heavy consolidation pressure and a downtrend line and supported by shadows rejections below of the two as I've already said I believe that the resistance is stronger we're at the resistance point now of the downtrend line and therefore it wouldn't be unusual if the market were to turn down pretty well right here and and turn down and retest these lows here at 67 if it does do that then you've got a good place to protect yourself just above that high there at 71 85 somewhere around 72 level but it hasn't turned down yet I would wait for that to do that but I would not be surprised to see the market turn down very close to here and begin an attack on that 67 low and then possibly the 64 low there's also you there's a Fibonacci projection which is down to 63 for it as well so I think this might be at a turning point though it's relatively steady at the moment I think that this is maybe the extent of the rally and it may be may end close to here of course if I break through 72 level that short term messages is aborted and we break through the 73 level then it's a completely different picture and it's punched hard into extremely heavy resistance but I have strong doubts about that possibility happening more likely is the long-term downtrend is going to reassert itself and it may be about to do it close to where we are right now I'll leave it there for this update I thank you very much indeed for watching it's goodbye from me Trevor Neal at beta group and ROG research and may the trend trend be with you bye bye