 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Allen writes, how does option flow dictate the trade? I've tracked some of the big bets, especially come on Tesla, for example. And I've seen some are some tracked and they some are going up and some are losing bets. Yeah, that's a great question. Number one, we've been tracking option flow for a very, very long time. Number one, option flow, there's two types of option bettors. Okay, the first better is betting on a future event. Okay, that person is betting. For example, if Allen, if you're going based on Friday's close, okay, and you're saying, hey, you know, I think Tesla is going higher. Look at all these option bets coming in on Tesla. They're coming in for this week, like we mentioned before, they came for the 800 weeklies, the 810s for next week, the 820s next week, the 830s next week, the 850s next week. Right. They are betting on a future event. Obviously, the delivery numbers came in and they were betting that it's going to be a good outcome. Okay, number one, nobody knows. Okay, unless you know, then you have a whole different legal scenario to face. But number one, nobody really knows. You're taking a bet that is an event that hasn't happened yet, right? It's still up in the air. It's to be determined. So nobody really knows. So you have two types of bettors. The first better is betting on a future event. And those guys, of course, there's a chance, there's a 50-50 chance that they're going to make money on their bet, correct? There's only a 50-50 chance. They're either going to see expiration with their profit potential or it's going to expire worthless. Those guys are betting on lottery tickets, right? That's what they are. That's why you see so many bets. If you guys remember a couple of weeks ago, we started seeing, before Tesla confirmed this whole 765 macro number, if you guys remember two, three weeks ago, they were coming for the 750 bets when the stock was what, 715, 708, right? So they were betting. They were hail-marrying that this stock was going to hit that level. That's one better. Those guys, you're going to see most chances of them not lose their money on their bets. Because, again, they're betting on an event and, oh, by the way, they have time. So they're betting the stock's going to get to that area and they're betting it's going to get there in the time that they are betting it, right? It's a very, very tough rack at the play. It's a much different scenario than somebody buying the stock, for example, on the equity side, on the underlying security at 708, 710 and saying, well, you know what? I believe in Tesla. My stop is the previous day's low. I think the stock gets to 750 versus the guys who's buying the premium at 708 for the 750 colas and he's hoping it's going to get there. I've personally said, if you're going to trade options, okay, number one, what do you guys need? You need measure potential, right? When you're betting on a future event that the stock hasn't technically triggered yet, then you're in God's hands, right? You're literally in God's hands. So those guys who are making, right, right now, those guys who are making those 850 bets, they're hoping, right? They're absolutely hoping. Then there's the option traders. There are betting on the same 850, 820, 830 expiration, but they're betting when the stock confirms macro, okay? So there's a big difference of the guy betting on the 800 colas here, right? Here and here and here and here and here. They're hoping, right? They're praying. They're forecasting. They're anticipating. So they're not getting any technical reason why the stock should get there. The same buyer, right, the same option player comes in and looks at the chart and looks at the chart technically and says, all right, I know this is the big technical level, right? I know this is the big technical level. Instead of me betting on the 850 colas here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and hoping, I'm at least betting the same area of measured potential because now the stock has confirmed macro, right? The stock has confirmed macro. And now again, if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, well, look at the weekly Tesla chart, right guys? Wouldn't it make much more sense if you're an options player? Again, options and equity completely do two different things. It's like apples and hand grenades, two different things, right? So wouldn't it make a lot more sense betting on the 850 colas on Tesla when the stock trades macro, right? You have a higher probability of your trade playing out the way it should be because look how much airspace you have. If you look at the weekly chart, right? If you look at the weekly chart on Tesla, at least if it takes out this whole channel here, right? Whole weekly channel here. You already know you have a measured potential for the stock to go to the January 25 highs of 900, right? At least you have a measured potential. You have a high probability because you have so much airspace, right? You have so much airspace from this supply zone to all the way up here that your, you know, that your chickens could come into roost. I don't think that's even an expression. You know what I'm talking about. So you have a higher probability of the stock getting to 850 when it confirms macro than you are betting on the stock getting to 850 when the stock is at 736 and now you're hoping and praying. The reason why you are seeing a lot of big bets come out empty handed and have their, have their bets go to zero because they are betting emotionally and anticipating the stock going instead of the players that are betting technically once the stock actually confirms. You follow what I'm saying? So yeah, there's two types of betters in the options market. The hopers and prayers, the misclios of the world that are looking at their crystal ball and hoping to God against their versus the technical buyers. Because I will tell you this much Alan. If the stock opens right and challenges this macro area, I think we all know what this macro area is, right? On Friday, on tomorrow and you start seeing betters coming in, right? If the stock is like, you know, 805, 806 and you start betters coming in aggressively, 825, 830, 840, 850 at least they will be betting technically versus betting emotionally. So that's kind of the best way to kind of look at the options market betting technically versus betting emotionally. So that's a really, really good question. I think a lot of you guys who are trading on the option side, you know, should have a pretty good understanding, especially the way we trade technically that a trade is probably going to be better when it confirms macro. So hopefully answer your question there.