 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The NFL draft is in the books. It was fun as always and it now means we basically got a pretty clear picture of what these Rosters will look like heading into week one It is time to talk some wind totals time to wrap up the draft by talking to Ryan Williams getting his read on this year's draft Talking about some wind totals over's under's the buzzy teams from the draft and where he is leaning where things stand Right now. This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and at number fire calm My name is Jim sawed us. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan the draft is in the books Welcome back. How are you doing today? Oh, man? I'm doing well. It's May 1st We are Hearing up for all the fun stuff man offseason workouts We know the training camps right around the corner as soon as we get to the summertime It's going to be it's gonna be right now We're probably about just a week and a half away from the schedule release Which is always a fun time Jim. So, you know, we're just getting back into the group it's 365 as always and When the schedule comes out of means I have to update my spreadsheet to like have all the So like it's like, oh, yeah, the schedule sounds like oh, yeah I have to like go through and edit my spreadsheets to actually have it like be appropriate there We'll talk about the you know buzz your teams in the draft, but you know, you're you're bears I think did pretty well. I like I Like darno right quite a bit because I do I will pull some weight adjust numbers for the combine and darno, right? Kind of pretty good in that regarding 99th percentile broad jump adjusting for weights So thoughts on your bears from this year's draft Yeah, definitely like the the offensive line pick. I mean, you know, I think they could have gone a number of ways I know that people wanted them to draft Peter Skronsky the kid, you know kid from Chicago I was just so over hearing how many people from Chicago the bears were bringing in it was like we can't bring everybody back home Let's get the let's get what we think is the best player available And you know, I think there are a lot of things to like about darno, right? You also it was kind of rumored that the bears were going in that direction about 48 hours 36 hours before the draft So you love when those things kind of come to fruition, right? But I think you know, they did a good job as far as you know, pretty much like need-based drafting Yeah, you know that they had made flesh moves in the offseason Love to see that something that they hadn't done before and I think in this draft They just you know kind of wanted to go in and get some players and play it safe And that's totally fine when you have looked at how the drafts have gone in the past I do love them, you know trading back I do wish that we could have gotten more than a fourth I shouldn't say I do wish that they would have gotten more than a fourth from Philly For the Jalen Carter trade knowing how much that was gonna mean to Philly But you know, you get another pick and that's what that's what you do and you try and you try and just shore up Shore up the team. So I was happy with it There weren't too many other splash plays that I thought but I think that you know when you're looking at things this Tyler Scott kid from Cincinnati is interesting that they bring in for receiver in the fourth round We know what and this is a different regime But you know historically the Bears have been doing well the past couple of years with these mid-round picks So we're hoping that that one pans out as well too And yeah, I just think it was a it was a safe draft I didn't think there were any splash players But I definitely love seeing them get trenches with the first two picks Yeah, and I think that they attacked areas of need which is kind of what you said where they needed a right tackle pretty badly They needed wide receiver help needed DT help which they got a lot of So kind of just attacking the needs going to some high value positions like cornerback and stuff like that wide receiver So I thought it made a lot of sense. I think that you know again They're making good moves this all season. We'll see if that pans out But I think the overall trajectory is pretty good there We're gonna dive into the draft talk about Ryan's biggest takeaways from what we saw Thursday through Saturday and dissect all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast things Especially crucial this week because I had a schedule for this week. We're gonna have two shows today Kentucky Derby podcast coming up later on today Christina Blacker of fan dual TV will be on to break down her thoughts on the post Draw which is happening at Churchill bounce today. We'll talk about that Then tomorrow we'll talk some golf with Brandon Cadulla talks man be a playoffs as well No show Wednesday because we have three of the first two days So especially important to make sure you're subscribed for this week with the odd schedule here on covering the spread Just search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast or check us out over on the Fandle YouTube page Thumbs up there or a five-star rating if you like which here over on Apple podcast speaking of the Derby The biggest horse races the year is here And there's no better time to get in the action on fan dual racing because right now all customers can get a no sweat derby bet I'll do $20. That means get it to $20 back if your win bet doesn't win The Fandle racing app is super easy to use safe and secure and when you win you get paid fast So don't miss out the derby is coming up this Saturday Just visit racing dot Fandle calm for your chance to get a no sweat derby bet Up to $20 on Fandle racing. That's racing and fan dual calm age and residency Restrictions apply offer valid on first derby win wager refund issued is in non-glitchable racing site credits that expires on June 12 2023 Restrictions apply see terms at racing dot Fandle calm a gambling problem call 1-800 gambler Now before we talk specific wind totals Ryan I do want to talk about the draft and go through that and I want to ask you about your takeaways with the caveat here being It doesn't impact wind totals a lot because the draft capital is already baked in so I was you know Pulling recap wind totals for today and they were only like three that moved only one move towards the under So obviously there's a lot of optimism across the board for a lot of people But when you look at this year's draft any big betting takeaways for you from what we saw there So big takeaways for me is just looking at what's going on in NFC East Because the Philadelphia Eagles had a pretty solid draft I know we're going to talk about them later But so did the Giants to Addressing a lot of positions at need and really just kind of showing up both sides of the football We know the Cowboys they always are tending to make splash plays and things that they do in the draft and beyond I think that division is really going to be key. We talked earlier earlier this year in March I believe when we were doing covering the spread after the season and kind of just like what was happening in a free agency And stuff like that like Jim I don't know what's you know, I still don't have faith in the Tennessee Titans And what's going on the AAP South the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't even have really that that strung of a draft traded back a couple times But I thought there were some other positions that they could have addressed Indy probably had the best one of the best drafts as well too I know that people are kind of unsure about the quarterback there and Anthony Richardson and what he's gonna bring to the Table, but you love that they you know are kind of just going all in on that direction knowing that they've made to Disasterous moves at quarterback in free agency over the past two seasons So I think that that that is one division or those are two divisions where I'm looking at when total specifically On the teams that are not favored at the top Yeah, the Dallas one is interesting because I I've got them above their wind total right now their wind total is not in a half now It's minus 150 on the over so it's a 60% plot odds to go over. I thought 10.3 wins I find that very interesting Not like actively seeking out the Cowboys because I think that their receiver room is still a bit lacking So I think it's a bit odd that they're so high, but the defense is pretty good and stuff like that going back to Indy I think that they just like sorted by athleticism and then drafted based on that You know, you can like if you're doing a fantasy football draft You can sort by ADP they sorted by Freakishness and went by that Anthony Richardson obviously the big one But like even after that like a lot of the guys they drafted are just like outliers in terms of how athletic they are They got the defensive tackle from Northwestern who tested I think he ran like a 4-4-9 at 200 and something like a lot of a lot of weight Ran really well there Evan Hall from Northwestern had a good 40 as well Blake Freeland was a fourth round lineman for them to be why you and he One of the most athletic tackles at the combine So they just went for freaks and like I'm not sure if it'll work out because like a lot of these guys are High variance picks and a lot of them didn't go in the first round for a reason But honestly Ryan, I respect the commitment to just drafting Because football is an athletic competition. You might want good athletes that Nicole at least did lean into that Absolutely, no absolutely, and I mean that's where the when you see Like I think the Eagles were trying to mirror everything after what just happened in the Super Bowl against Kansas City And they I think they truly believe were the better team They were the more athletic team and some things just got away from them So I think they were just how many playmakers can we get on both sides of the football Especially on the D line getting the guys from Georgia now They have the four defensive linemen from the Georgia 2021 defense That was one of the best defensive lines of all time on college football So, you know, and then I think people just trying to mirror off of that Like everybody saw the success that Billy had just from making an athletic offense and knowing where the state of NFL is going And let's just try and get get that going on our side if we can't nobody's gonna Not everybody's gonna get a Trevor Lawrence, right? Not everybody's gonna get a generational pocket pass or a quarterback in the draft So if you can take some chances on on these other guys and and see, you know How that equates to a Jalen Hurts or a Lamar Jackson, etc, etc Then you can feel like you have a shot to be able to do some other things on the other side of ball So I did think I did find that interesting The other takeaway to Jim just overall is like the NFL draft in general is getting so so much fun to bet on When you're looking at how things lead up into the weeks and everything, you know When you're talking about Skoransky and how how he was favorite to be the number one offensive lineman And you have Paris Johnson and don't know why going before like I think everybody Felt like the Minnesota Vikings were gonna be drafting a wide receiver. There was a lot of talk that Addison was gonna be there He was plus 200 on the Fandall sportsbook leading up I know you were on Twitter talking about the CJ Stroud and Houston Texans thing and not too many people had Them drafting a quarterback But it was like everything that we thought of after the season and leading up to was them drafting a quarterback And also just the chaos that ensued for the rest of the other 31 picks shout out to the Dolphins who didn't have a first-run pick for tampering But you know, I think it's just getting so fun when you can look at these markets Especially the week leading into where there's so many people who feel like they're sure fire decisions And really I think it's being one of the most Under talked about things is how you know profitable you can be from taking some swings on some things the NFL draft in general Yeah, you were talking about the CJ Stroud thing I mentioned on Twitter I was like tracking what his odds were to go second overall and like they were shorting throughout the day and like Someone a former co-worker like thank me. He's like hey, thanks point out the Stroud thing I was like no, no, no, I was not telling you saying to bet it I was like Because like I always get nervous about steam chasing because it means you're getting the worst You're not getting the best number at any time Like if it goes in 750 plus 750 to plus 450 that means you're betting it at a much worse number And so I was kind of like I'm tracking this. I am not recommending you bet this I'm glad this person profited off of me phrasing that poorly But I was like no, no, no, I was not trying to get this to happen I was just like I like CJ Stroud and I wanted him to go second. I wasn't saying to bet it So I don't know. It's it's it's interesting event. It's wild. It was so fun to watch that throughout the day I work with a Austin cast the Colts fans. We're talking about the Colts and he wanted Stroud to fall to four and It was just like, oh, no, it's Stroud's odds to go second or going up and it's like It's slowly watching the dream fade away, but it mean he got Anthony Richardson. So, you know, I guess it works out in the end Yeah No, absolutely. I mean time will time will tell right but I think yeah It's gonna be a fun one to kind of monitor how how all these how all these guys do The the other thing quickly Jim was just I really don't know what's going on in the NFC south It's actually kind of concerning like I and I'm not saying anything to the tune of like betting on them Because I don't trust any of these things But I do think that there is kind of like an underlying like Message there if Bryce young can be what the Panthers want them to be like the favorite right now from when total's Perspective is Atlanta at they're sitting at eight and a half and we know I guess we'll see what the quarterback Position holds for them through this offseason, but you know, they're getting to running back in there They've got playmakers on offense and and the defense aside the ball if they can be healthy But it's like, you know, we thought about how how much Tampa has meant to that division And you're looking at the Saints and what they did in the draft and kind of some headscratchers as well there, too But it you know and not having the regime of Sean Payton to be able to carry the load with them For a long time as well, too So I think that's gonna be a division that we definitely want to watch and monitor because I do think it's up for grabs quote-unquote For whatever that's worth. So we're gonna go through some wind totals. We like later on I have two NSC south teams one in the over category and one in the under category You may or may not have touched on both of them, but we'll talk about that later on let's talk about the Eagles you mentioned them and what they did during the NFL draft and They made a lot of noise obviously the Jan Carter pick no one Smith as well So the Eagles generate a lot of buzz and as a result their wind totals now 10 and a half There is minus 140 on the over and that's a big number Ryan But it's also the NFC where we know there's not a lot of great quarterback play in the Eagles Maybe the defense is young, but we've seen the quarterback play be proven so far Do you think there's still value in either the over or the under here or has the value dried up? Thanks to how much buzz the Eagles have gotten Yeah, I think it's dried up Jim I don't think I mean really the the lean here is the over for me personally It seems about right and you're looking at this team that just won 14 games last year and you're thinking Even even with the I mean granted They made a ton of moves in the draft and bringing in the under swift all that good stuff and it just feels right It feels appropriate, which is when I see that I'm not usually willing to bet it because I think that the Juices and worth the squeeze when you're looking at minus 140 there on the over I don't I don't see this team going under those wins unless there's a significant injury And probably would have to come to Jalen Hertz if anything may be on the defense aside the ball that could affect some things I do think though that you know with Dallas being better The Giants seemingly getting better And the commander still being there for what for whatever that's worth I do think this will be a fun division to kind of monitor So for me it's a stay away right now, but it does feel appropriate and I can't you know Really fault people who want to get in on that number because it seems right. I could not agree more on it being a stay away I have it at 10 and a half exactly In my win totals So I think that it's important to remember that yes like the the guys Eagles got are awesome And they addressed important positions I think the Jalen Carter with his ability to affect the past is an important position Even if DT is not necessarily an important position like he himself is important. They addressed important positions They got good values. They seem to be very intelligent how they drafted It's important to remember they did lose a lot of pieces on defense in free agency So to me, this is more so making up for lost ground For what had already happened in free agency more so than adding to a team that already went to These Super Bowl last year. So to me, that's the way I viewed it So I think that 10 and a half is the right number minus 140 is Pretty tough to get to an over for me. So I agree with you where it's a stay away on the Eagles despite the fact They did a great job. I respect the heck out of their draft and they were definitely a team to highlight from this past week Now one team that was not worthy not during the draft But for what they did leading into the draft was the Baltimore Ravens locked up Lamar Jackson long-term got that settled And their win total right now is nine and a half minus 122 on the over there We now a certainty on the Mar Ryan, but it's a very tough division So what's your read on this win total for the Ravens now that we know who the quarterback will be here? Yeah For people who've been following me and the stuff that I've been doing here covering the spread and otherwise I think the Ravens are always a team that I'm looking into Attack when especially when the market's not on them. I mean minus 122 you'd like to see that number a little bit better But when you're looking at nine and a half wins I mean Lamar Jackson has only lost 16 games as a starter Jim that Ravens were eight and four with him last year and Without Lamar Jackson that they don't seem to find success Tyler Huntley was a flash in the pan two seasons ago and he wasn't able to get anything going last year I think they they knew that they had to Do everything that they could to bring this guy back because he's such an electrifying player on the field I think that he has become you know kind of the heart and soul of Baltimore Fandom in general this team has this team and said he has rallied behind him so much and so when I'm looking at it Yeah, I mean the Bengals are always still gonna be there I think the Steelers, you know, definitely are gonna make some noise and we'll see what Deshaun can do for the Browns But I think for this when you're looking at Over nine and a half wins and you look at what Harbaugh has done In his tenure there and you look at what Lamar has done in his tenure Like how are we not, you know thinking that this team can get to 10 wins every season with Lamar being healthy on the field Like the other ancillary pieces for me on the offense Do not matter when you're looking at if this defense can stay healthy The defense has really been able to you know carry the load for them And you know doesn't matter if Antonio Browns out there Odell's down out there like JK Dobbins Like as long as Lamar's out there this team has a chance they got Mark Andrews So I'm loving the nine and a half wins here even at that price Yeah minus 122 again on the over here I have them at 9.9 wins and that is despite the fact that this division is tough So if I just sort by power rankings instead of wins all four yes four AFC North teams including Pittsburgh are in the top 14 in my power rankings right now Pittsburgh is 14th But you have Baltimore and Cleveland both inside the top 10 Cincinnati is two behind Kansas City That might be maybe shuffle them around the bills But like this is a tough division and I saw the Ravens at 9.9 wins We think which I think says all you need to know about what I think about Lamar Jackson where I like him a lot and I Am very skeptical of Odell, but you give him if you look at Rashad Bateman Odell Beckham and say flowers with Mark Andrews versus Whatever on earth Lamar was sorry to last year when as you mentioned they were eight and four with Lamar And they had a very efficient passing offense in that time It's really hard not to be enthusiastic about this team Now it might not be enthusiastic enough to bet the over on their win total, but I think this is a team that has upside So if you're looking for other markets looking at conference championship markets, they're 10 to 1 to win the AFC I don't know if I can get there quite just because again I think their odds to being in the wild card and Playing in that opening weekend or playing on the road that opening weekend are pretty obvious But I think they're an upside team more so than a floor teams I think that's the way that I view it is I do like the over nine nine and a half again I've got them at 9.9, but they're an upside team for me and a team with ceiling And it sounds like we're on the same page there where they're a team that is gonna be a contender a factor despite a loaded AFC Definitely When you're looking at this season awards there like he's six favorite to Be the MVP and things like that when you're looking at those top six You know MVP races you've got to look at the win totals on the other side and see how that equates and you know Nine and a half is a pretty low total for somebody who is thought to be the sixth favorite of MVP So I always love to look at the correlation as you know And so that's one thing that has me looking at the over nine and a half wins there Yeah, the favorites for MVP are an AFC quarterback an AFC quarterback an AFC quarterback an AFC quarterback an NFC quarterback and an AFC quarterback What a brutal conference. What a brutal way things have been distributed there Across that let's talk now about some wind totals Ryan Let's start on the positive side when you look at the wind totals right now a fan to a sports book Which ones have you interested in taking the over for right now? Yeah, you mentioned the Cowboys at nine and a half. I think that's that's very intriguing knowing just How they've been over over the course of time with Dak Prescott at the helm there I think that they have a lot to prove From the offensive side of the ball standpoint and things that nature With the way that the season kind of played out It is minus 150 which doesn't feel all that great But I do think that there is some merit there The other team that I was looking at and if I can find it here we scroll down in the positive side Which is gonna kind of feel gross Jim, but like the Rams at Over seven and a half at plus 132 like I'm interested in that number for sure I get it like Stafford's been banged up dealing with injury but you know missing for Cooper cup as long as they did all of the Narrative behind Sean McBae and is he you know bought into the team does he even want to coach this team anymore? Is he coming back? He does come back It just feels like in the McBae era like not seeing this tent this team hit this total if they're healthy It's just like it you know it kind of it kind of speaks to me and especially with you know The Cardinals are struggling a little bit. I think the Seahawks, you know I've definitely made some splash plays on that in but the NFC West is an interesting one So I think at plus 132. I'm definitely willing to take a chance on that number The other one too was the was the Broncos in the AFC West if we flip it over there At over eight and a half. I mean Sean Payton is gonna have this team, you know ready to roll I think that it would be pretty disastrous We think about him coming into that into that fold and them not hitting on nine wins And not being in contention for the playoffs and that's really what it comes down through right as you're thinking about teams Who can make the playoffs and look at what the wins they'll need and that's how I look at wins all those and so over a And a half wins they they're gonna need that in order to play in the playoffs in the AFC So plus 106 there at that number feels pretty good to be getting in on the Denver Broncos yeah, I'm gonna go back to the Rams because they have the 10th easiest schedule by my numbers for this year and It's because of what you mentioned with the NFC West being pretty poor I think Arizona has a shot to be the worst human football depending on Kyler's health if Kyler can't go. They are a talent I honestly like I have Kyler protective for half a year, which might be low But with that they are the human football by almost a win If they were to get more Kyler that would obviously increase but They're pretty rough and you get two games against them. That's interesting The Seahawks, I think we can all be pretty high on Geno Smith. We all respect Geno. I think that they've made some good moves But you know, there's always uncertainty there and then with the 49ers We're not sure on Brock Purdy and if it's not Brock Purdy with his with his elbow could be Sam Darnell So I Understand that there is a lot of room for upside there in the NFC West couple ones that stood out to me I want to start things off by going back to the NFC North and I think Cleveland is interesting They're over nine and a half is plus 112 and I think there's value in that number because you look back to last year Dishon Watson came back and was pathetic which from a shot in front of perspective was great Huge fan of him struggling and that team being bad in that time But now they've had a full year to mesh full year to get healthy on defense and things like that it is a tough division but their schedules actually not that bad and So talking about Baltimore before I've got them at 9.9 wins. I have Cleveland at 10.2 That's despite the fact Baltimore is higher in my power rankings but it's because Baltimore schedules a healthy amount tougher Baltimore schedule is the 13th Toughest by my numbers whereas Cleveland is 24th. So the schedule favors Cleveland over nine and a half Plus 112. I think that one is interesting to me. It's not fun to Want to have to cheer for the Browns right now But like I do think there is value there the answer NSC South team We're talking about them before that I like the over four is the Saints actually and I would say this number has been People are not on board with me here. So I might not bet this one now Over nine and a half is plus 116 that has been lengthening I think there is a shot that gets eight and a half with how much this number has moved I don't think it's super super likely but it's possibility and you could get potentially get to plus 120 or so over nine and a half but their car for all his flaws has Proven you can command a pretty efficient passing offense This defense had so many injuries last year It was still pretty decent and they didn't lose a ton of pieces along the defensive line during free agency but they replaced them via free agency and then peppered that position in the draft and also I Feel like Michael Thomas like there's at least the upside case there I'm not banking on him like being an upgrade and being a legit piece here, but it's a possibility So I think the Saints of plus 116 over nine and a half make sense I do like the Browns over nine and a half a plus 112 to I think if I'm looking for Optimistic zones to go to I would go there. I do think the Cowboys as well as you mentioned Ryan The team I like any thoughts for you on the Saints of the Browns though Yeah, the Saints one is interesting because I kind of was It's a stay-away for me. I was kind of intrigued in in the under But you know, I might as well 42. I'm not I'm not that sold there yet I think for me, it's gonna be how can how does Michael Thomas come back on this team because I am waiting for that Future market to come out for comeback player of the year and I don't yeah Okay, and a very intriguing one to hit You know usually and we I think we've talked about this together before where you're looking at injuries and things So that nature it's kind of like a scooter injury kind of just like he hasn't been the same player for quite some time But I digress. I do think that's an interesting one there The other team that you were talking about Jim remind the browns The Browns. Yes. So the Browns. I mean You know You think with the Browns and with any team in the NFL, right? If you got the quarterback position that at least it comes for something And so I think there were a lot of times last season where we saw Watson be able to bail this team out in some regards. So it's just Kind of tough for me because I'm just looking at them overall in the unit Especially with those starters the 22 and I just I'm just not seeing I'm just not buying into the the talent necessarily And I thought they really could have done some stuff in the draft Even you know granted how they mortgage the future for Dishon Right still being able to make some some picks there in the mid rounds and I just wasn't wasn't convinced Now and you talked about it like the AFC north. We'll see it's gonna be a tough division So that's what kind of worries me about the Browns, but again, it's like you got the quarterback So that can account for for something especially in close games. I mean the under is to it's too juiced up at minus 140 for me to take a shot there So I think for me, it's just gonna be a classic stay away as well as Philly And if we're choosing a team to root for in the AFC north, they're not I'd rather for the Ravens over nine and a half And the Browns that is that is for sure. Okay, that was the sunshine and roses Ryan Let's make it dark and let's talk about some unders when you're looking to under as you like at Vanduul Sports Book Which one stand out to you there? Yeah, I think the Tennessee Titans at minus 115 at under I've been talking about them a lot and so I got to put my money where my mouth is I'm on that one The Tampa Bay Buccaneers at under six and a half plus 104 Very intriguing to me. I I still am unsure about what is gonna happen at the quarterback position For them, but yeah, exactly. So if we you know, if we're getting plus money on that I'm willing to kind of take a shot there the other team That I was looking at let me scroll back up here So Yeah, I mean the the only other thing that I was looking at was Houston Yeah, where you know five and a half is the number also with the Arizona Cardinals They're five and a half to so I think that's interesting But Houston under five and a half wins is plus one team You know, I think that that number is skewed to how they just did in the draft and bringing in CJ to bring in a Will Anderson and make it some moves there But they also, you know gave up a lot to be able to go back up and get will Anderson to So we'll see what comes to fruition. I would I would think that they're more Act to be able to be winning in 2024 than in 2023 So I'm willing to take a shot on them to say that they'll be you know a top three pick drafting again Here this year. So at plus one 18 kind of like in that number Yeah, I had the Houston Texans over win total last year and that was not a fun ride. So They're tied with Indian week one really killed me I knew that we were playing with thin margins and that did not help so I Don't want to be back on that ride again I think like I've show value in the over but I just like it's tough. It's tough for sure Unders that stand up to me. The first one is actually going back the NSE south and I want to see your thoughts on this one. I like Atlanta under eight and a half at minus 110 I'm not as low on Arthur Smith as most people are because people get frustrated with fantasy stuff And I think that they let that infiltrate their thoughts in them on a real-world coach a bit too much But it is a third round quarterback going into The full year as a starter He does have some really fun pieces around him and I think that they'll be like a fun team They've done they peppered a lot of money at the defense They have the second easiest scheduled by my numbers, but it's still really tough for me to get to eight and a half wins with How much ground they had to make up on defense and with a third round quarterback Third round second-year quarterback. So I think that they're fun Ryan I just don't think I can get to eight and a half wins. So I like the under there What are your thoughts on the Falcons and eight and a half? Yeah, I like that as well to Jim You know, we'll see what Ritter has in the in the tank and even if that's the direction that they choose to go We're still a couple months away from the kickoff of the season Maybe there's something else that could come to fruition that we're not thinking about but I think as it currently stands here This is a good number to to get in on the team that really, you know As as well as they have done as far as getting some pieces there that are exciting on offense and really showing up the defense We were talking about it starts at the quarterback position And if you have any uncertainty like nine wins is a lot. So, yeah Well, I'll I'm with you there to try and take a shot on the under Yeah, the other one I had mentioned or that I had in my notes was the Patriots under seven and a half and even money Feels bad to bet under seven and a half on Bill Belichick like that seems like sacrilege It's like a football fan, but the offense had its major issues last year the piece they brought in to Make it a better offense like Mike is sicky some of the other stuff they've done. It's not really doing a whole lot for me now having like a competent offensive coordinator who doesn't hate the quarterback and vice versa Maybe that will be enough, but and I think their defense is gonna rule I think their defense be really good again But I don't think that's enough to get seven and a half in an AFC East That is very tough like I have the jets in line at their wind total other than 9.8 wins I have Miami at 9.4 wins Buffalo is at 10.2. So like AFC East is very tough and the toughest The toughest Schedule in football right now by my numbers belongs to the Patriots. So under seven and a half and even money I think that's no place to want to go just it is mentally tough to like Bet that low on Bill Belichick given how good his track record is I know we want to like poke fun, but like he's a really good coach and it's tough to to be this low on this team Definitely. No, I think it's gonna be interesting. Do you think that they're better than last year about the same? I think that they will be better on offense. I just think it gets negated by Hopefully healthy Tua and negated by Eric Rogers and negated by other aspects of their schedule Because again, it's the toughest schedule in football. So I think that they'll be a better football team if we can greater than like in a vacuum I just don't know if that will translate to wins the way it wanted to because like looking at the rest of schedule they play The so they play the ASEs, which is tough. They play the AFC West So they get like their home games are against the Chargers and the cheese I don't know if they can win those even in Foxboro. That's pretty tough They get yeah, I believe the NFC East to because they have I see Philly Washington Dallas So they must have yeah, so they get the NFC East to so if we're high on Philly we're high on Dallas they get Philly at home, too So a lot of their home games are difficult so aren't a lot of like easy baked in wins and that's right Yeah, and I just look at it from last year of them going 8 and 9 and really just like in when you look at the season and you go back and I'm thinking to myself how this team get eight wins, you know Now, you know granted there were there was some you know, I think what do they have less the NFC North they had last year I'm looking and then AFC East but yeah Or AFC North excuse me. They play in the East So I think it's intriguing. I think that they will find themselves in More games than not and I think that's going to be the frustrating part when we look at the win total years like right They could really just you know with the defense in the way that that defense plays and how opportunistic they are Bringing them below Brian like, you know, they're gonna be and they have to right They have to in order to compete with Miami with New York with Buffalo So right that that's gonna be another one. That's a stay away from me at this point in time But I think you know one of those things if we talk about long shots You know would it surprise you to see the Patriots kind of make some noise there because you know That's gonna be the thing that because of their opponents like if they're able to put up some wins against these teams It's gonna be like, oh, okay, like is can we buy into Mac Jones like is Bill Belichick back? I can see those narratives start to start to come to fruition in 2023. So that's fun Yeah, again betting against Bill Belichick is not fun. So we'll see how that goes But definitely find out these wind totals up and definitely fun to talk about the them with you here Ryan that's all that we have here for today on this episode of covering in the spread But again back again later on tonight talking some Kentucky Derby will talk some golf and NBA for tomorrow But Ryan want to thank you for swinging by once again as always and looking forward to talking to you again The near future talk about some more NFL Absolutely, Jim always a pleasure. See you next time, bud Alrighty that is Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am S a NN ES back with you later on today to talk about post draws for the Kentucky Derby We'll talk to you all then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network