 of T. F. N. N. trading hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1 877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 now David White. And welcome all to another exciting addition to the power of T. F. N. N. N. N. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So what do we have going on today? Well, Mr. Powell's off his catwalk again after he did a little dance on the catwalk on the catwalk. Uh, so now he's, uh, he's showing his stuff and everybody's kind of scratching it's probably not too exciting. Still up 150 on the Dow 151. Now it's X off 17 Russell, of course, is the big loser down 10. Uh, so once again, we took a run at the highs. Volume is rather a paltry 3.6 billion shares as I wrote my newsletter this morning. Uh, not only is volume relatively down, uh, but the actual dollar notional amount traded is massively lower. Uh, and that tells you a great deal and that is that those small caps are in action. We also saw the dark pool, uh, percentage move up to fairly close to 40%. Uh, so there is a lot out here that tells you that we've got probably a short term high in one of the best indicators that I have is the call ratio on the VIX. Uh, it was under 40 or under 50 yesterday, which generally good sign that there's not much going on. My models for options, of course, show that option market makers, um, have about a, you know, probably what about an equal chance of 30 points higher, uh, in the S and P before expiration, uh, to, uh, maybe 100 points lower. So they're fairly biased to think that there isn't much higher and there's a possibility of a whole lot lower. So the risk reward probably isn't very good being long right now, unless you're in some massively shorted stock, which a lot of times, uh, on high shorted stocks, if you get the opportunity to see that squeeze into a downturn and have the patience, uh, to sit on your hands and stalk it, eventually you'll get up and everybody will quit, uh, shorting it. And within generally about a day, uh, if not hours of that happening when the short's no longer can look down the barrel of that gun and pull the triggers when the market, when the, uh, stock will turn and generally it turns rather massively, especially if you can get, uh, into a sharp uptrend of the, uh, puts on the other side of it when everybody's throwing them, uh, the baby out with bathwater. Uh, some of my biggest, uh, hugest, uh, pops. I was thinking about was a price line with John from Philadelphia that we were talking about in a three-gap play higher. Uh, there's a lot of those kind of things that just instantly turn around on a dime. And sometimes if you've been around long enough, you can see them. Anyway, you can call me at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course you can always put a message in the den. Uh, other things going on today, of course, uh, we always want to keep a close eye on the, uh, dollar 96 69. Uh, but, uh, the volume's kind of telling you everything you need to know, 3.6 3.7 billion shares, which is not much to push those highs. We haven't had a sign of strength since we broke through the highs. Uh, and again, not a lot of reason to think that there's a big catalyst to drive the market higher. So if you want to go short here, I think you've got a fairly decent, not all, but, uh, there's some pretty low hanging fruit down here that offers you, uh, the ability to have a fairly tight stop to the upside, and a, uh, a fairly, uh, um, robust downside if everything goes to hell and a hand basket stocks go up and stocks go down. Uh, don't, uh, if the market starts going down, don't get into the cheerleader mentality of it. Uh, at the highs, you want to be, uh, fearful and at the lows, you want to be greedy. I am fearful now by most people at the top are not. And my guess is I'll be fairly greedy, probably get out a little early, but once again be able to buy some, uh, stocks at the low. I ended up selling some of my longer term positions out and making some decent money on them today. I at least, looking into options all the way through August, I don't see where there's a lot of potential upside. It may just go sideways, but I'd much rather beat out instead of, uh, and instead of worrying and fretting about a market that goes nowhere, uh, then, uh, have money at risk, uh, only to see, uh, maybe one of them step on a landmine and lose a leg. It's all fun games till someone loses an eye. No one else could ever lose like a limb or anything else as a kid. It was always you're going to lose an eye, but, uh, I do digress, uh, gold's down five bucks at, uh, 14, uh, 107 bucks. Uh, had the first question already in today, and that is, uh, if we are starting to pull back here, is there anything that you really want to be long? And the answer, uh, I think is, uh, not blowing in the wind. That was a bunch of filthy hippies in the seven and the 60s. Uh, I think the answer is blowing in the bond market. Um, somebody pointed this out, uh, T, B, T, uh, and the, uh, nice move it has. This may be the most crowded trade of all time, and that is the bond market right now. Um, whatever is going to happen on this is going to be rather, uh, biblical in nature, I suspect. Um, so, uh, hopefully over the last few days, you got, uh, some rest in over the 4th of July, uh, but those, uh, bottle rockets, uh, and, uh, big fireworks displays may continue on through the rest of July. Other things happening. Uh, yes, I am going to be, uh, having a big event. Everybody pretty much knows how much I love space and Apollo project. Yes, uh, that night we're going to go out, uh, and pop on over, uh, to the other side of Florida for a big deal on the 50th anniversary of the moonwalk. And, uh, a lot of neat stuff going on in that there's a big project to, uh, for a lot of individuals to remake, uh, the, uh, Apollo capsule door, uh, and put it all together, uh, in the Smithsonian next to the actual Apollo 13 to show just how far technology has come where a lot of people can in their basements build things. A lot of people think America's forgotten how. A lot of people out there still, uh, able to make things. So, uh, we'll be looking at that, we'll come back, we'll talk about a little bit of history. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. Whether we're in a bull or bear market, a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade. The Taz Profile Scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. 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Details on the Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com educating investors. Oh, toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. And we're going to go right to the phones, which I guess they're hot. Anyway, Larry is on the line from Wyoming. How are you doing today, Larry? I'm doing real well. Hope you're doing good, too. Yeah. Okay. Well, I got a simple question, David. I bought dust this morning near the low and it looks, you know, it looks confirmed on the 30-minute chart in a wave two. And so my question is using your method. I know you don't like day trade, but how would you make a determination? Like if you had to determine right now for dust or gold for a 30-minute, four-hour, five-hour daily look, how would you use volume to determine do I hold it overnight or it's going to just retrace half the bar anyways? There's no point to it. That's my question. Well, what I was going to say is you got pretty much the makings of a much bigger pattern, not a smaller one. So first of all, I would say that I would not get lost on the tree for the forest, because you got to do what one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 days. This went down. You got a handful three days that went up above the three by three. He had one, two, three, four, five. Any clothes back above a nine-day moving average would put this fairly significantly on the side of a major retrace. So for me, the first thing I would look at out here is potentially where this could go back to. David, my question is, these are, I don't enjoy holding these overnight if I don't have to. How do you determine if you do hold it overnight? I mean, let's say it does not close above 1115-ish on the daily chart. How do you just shut it down? Yeah, there's always another trade. You can always get back in it. What I'm saying here is that the risk reward now is unknown, but if it closes back above, it's going to be very well known. And from here, there's a fairly nice confluence area running from what, 2102 to 1906. So, I mean, you could have a move back to 1906 that didn't actually even start to test the long-term bullishness of gold. There's a nice gap there and everything else. You didn't buy options, right? You just bought the... No, just because, well, Basil this morning had mentioned it could be just a trading range. So I didn't do a moonshot with an option. I just bought the dust. That's it. The essence of options is taking the leap of faith. And the way to play the ETF is wait until you get the indication. Gotcha. That's good to know. I never heard you say that, or at least I didn't hear it. Thank you. It is, buying the options and doing it right almost always means that you have to anticipate the market. On ETFs, your risk reward, the asymmetrical reward, is not what it is on options. And therefore, you really have to kind of wait until you get the reaction that you want. You're not going to get 10-1 out of this trade, although I didn't look at the options, although I will hear real quick. See if they are telling us anything about this. But for me, you know, I've been talking a lot about these double repo patterns, because they're all getting fairly set up, just like they did around in May. And we did fairly well on that cycle, too, in the newsletters, both going short and picking up the lows for the longer term stuff. But the idea is, what is it? 11-20. David, when I look at the gold contract, honestly, I mean, I was looking at that for a second-by-second on the four-hour chart. And it really looks like a, you know, a three, what do you call it, a three move in reverse, a three move to the top in reverse. You mean three gaps? Huh? Yeah. I mean three gaps. That's what I was going to say, you've got a nice setup here. And the only thing is, if you get in early and you get stopped out and then you go back in, you get stopped out, that's what I was going to say. Don't try to guess overnight action. That's it. Well, I certainly wouldn't on the ETF here. It's a triple. And that's problematic to begin with. That's where the options, actually, if they're cheap enough, can be a very good play for what you did. But for me, let's go ahead and take a look and see what it says on the, uh, if we just take a look at the options. Um. 11 22 11 15. Um that's, of course, a fairly big move already, right? You're already talking about a 10% move higher to get in. And that is the downside of playing at ETF, but you can get stopped out a lot of times on an ETF. And if you get stopped out three or four times, that's it. The option you already know how to play on a white cough analysis. Does that I'm not an expert in that? I mean, I see volume coming in here on this down move, uh, a little lighter than the down move in the middle of the pattern. If it is a pattern, um, is there anything you can be that can be gleaned with white cough volume? I mean, we've got three lower lows on the daily and in gold. And there's some volume here. No. Yeah, but the I'm going to give you an idea in context. Uh, let's go back because I know the numbers from five years ago. But a. In signal analysis or just the math that follows this. In 2015. A wonder point, a point move in the Dow statistically. Compared to a 500 point move in the Dow statistically is not a five time bigger signal. It's actually about a nine and a half time bigger signal statistically. And I don't know what the numbers are today, but there is kind of a logarithmic, um, response in signals. And the idea that we're going to have, you know, what five five and a half billion shares where we've had 10 and 12 billion shares over the last year, year and a half. Um, you know, generally in an ETF. A 25% move is the equivalent of I mean, a 25 percent reduction in volume is the equivalent of 50% reduction of volume in an individual market. So I appreciate you. Yeah. We'll be back in the path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter using a free trial with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. 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If you'd like to try my newsletter at risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find Market Insights under Trading Newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30-day free trial to my daily newsletter Market Insights today by visiting marketinsights.com. Go get them, folks. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. 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I'm looking at options and dust and the August 16th, we're trading for a buck here a little while ago. So if it went to, let's say that you got a big run and you got back to that gap to 19 bucks, so they'd be worth 8 bucks, so 800% to the upside. If you bought the ETF, you're only going to be able to maybe make 80% or 100% if you get that. Still a good play, not saying it's not. But you can be wrong a multitude of times buying the options. But if every time you lose 10% of a ETF, you know, three times you're down 30%, right? So what I was just saying when you're, you can take a lot more home run swings with options and you can ETFs and that's generally why I would preach that you wait until you get the signal to act and give up a little bit of profit for a lot more highly probable trade. And that's just the nature of those, those two. So again, the signal you're looking for on the nine day would be at least today close at 1122. I like what you're thinking. One of the things that really happens a lot of people don't know about because they haven't been around a long time is that gold does get sold pretty hard in a downtrend in the market. And a lot of people think, you know what? That's that's not something that happens. Well, Jim Sinclair early on, I think around 2002 with a interview with Tom O'Brien talked about how they continue to buy gold to hedge a lot of the portfolios. And they continue to buy gold all the way up. Well, since the market starts going down, they start selling that goal. And for the first couple of weeks in a downtrend, you do get a fairly decent move in gold if the market absolutely continues to move. People sell the gold too. It's not the people like me and you. It's not the people like me and it's not the people like me that bought gold as a hedge position. And guess what? You know, it went up. Now it's time to take some money. And they're probably as they sell that gold, they're probably selling some of the positions and they take that off. They did it as a Paris trade. We're long gold along this other thing were long gold because if everything goes to hell on and basket, it's probably going to be a lot of money. But I do get volume for Dixie, but I do get volume for U. U. P. And right today, it's half way into its most recent daily gap, which is also ice. I'm like no volume and it looks to me like it wants to turn around, right? I'm saying I got the best indication of a change in the market. I put that in my newsletter this morning. It's worked 80% of the days going in front of us. We have a fairly decent indication that we're going to see lower prices. Of course, when I look at the market together, as far as the options, I see a massive amount of fear in the. In the market makers over the last couple of days that's dramatically changed. Let me pull it up. Yeah, that was Wednesday. Okay. Um just to deal. Here we go. Let me pull it up here so everybody can see. But this is what you're saying you confirm people aren't taking profits in U. U. P. They're going. It's going to rally the dollar in the downtrend. Is that what you're trying to say? I'm saying generally in a downtrend they sell everything. Some things more than others. But the dollar will rally probably right? It could. It could not. It's done all kinds of stuff in the past. What I'm saying is that generally. It may will say the dollar goes up a buck. It's not going to change anybody's life. Meanwhile, we're going to have stuff that moves rather wildly. I started the show off with the TBT. That's probably the most overcrowded trade of all kinds of things. But I think there are extended consequences of everybody getting into one kind of instrument in 2008 was everybody wanted to own a house. Right? And then when that turned, especially ill liquid trades like that turn. It becomes rather problematic. So will the Treasury and the government try to stem the flow and make it orderly the answers. Yes, generally, but it's not going to happen. Right? They always wait until the force leaves the barn, and then they'll come in a couple of days later after a bunch of people are fried. And then that's it. But what I'm showing on the options here for the S and P. The spies is that there just isn't a whole lot of difference to the option market makers. If the spy expires at 3 10 or 4 10, they're going to have a trade deal that a trade deal could come out of the woods any day, and we could go a little higher. They're also fearful that it run on bonds or a handful of other things that could come out and they don't in there. You know, their Armageddon is anything below. Well, let's call it 255 on the spies. Doesn't mean it's going down there. But that's really like 305. And they're massively worried about a something happening war, you know, anything 100 things, and they just have zero worry. They don't think it's going to go below 255, but that's about it. And when you see that, that tells you that there's a bunch of stuff going on that they're worried about. If they weren't, then they move the market down, saying that they knew it was headed down. Or they bring the bottom of that chart, the left hand side over to the top, knowing that there wasn't downside, and they're doing neither, which is generally a good indication that whenever this market moves, you're probably going to have fairly large swings and high volatility. David, do you buy that chart or do you make that from your data? I made that. Oh, wow. And this is actually a modified version of that. That's why I'm a TFNN. Okay. Well, as usual, you've more than answered my questions. I like your idea. The it couldn't pay off. It could. I would have waited and I like the much longer than a short term trade. I think that really is a nice set up for a longer term confirmation. And that would be it or buy the options. I mean, if it, yeah, I'm, yeah, it's good. I'm going to, I'll make my decision in the last five minutes if I hold it overnight. So that's the way to do it. There's no reason to move until you have to, but the, you know, going into the break here. Thanks for the call, Larry. Thank you, sir. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the tiger investment program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. 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You've got some fairly good indications that about 58 bucks is where this would bounce to you've got a nice pullback on a lot much lighter volume off this May 1st high. Um and a fairly light volume test of the previous March 25th low, so not a bad setup. If you believe the market is going to be a good setup. There they are. Brought them up. Um the problem is that these things are too thin. I would love if there was a. Calls for August 16th. Um. Open interest is like 32 for 45. And open interest is. Yeah, see almost the same amount. Which I would probably look at those trading around a buck buck 15 right now. Um. But you know, you got to go four bucks to get into the money. But at this point with a market as nasty is looking as I think it is now that would be probably the play if you get a counter move into a downtrend. The most you can look at longer than that. So 50s, you know, but get possibly eight back. Um if you go to the 45s, they're already three bucks. And that seems rather expensive to me. So to me, the play is always the out of the money. Uh. Calls on something like this that have some time to them. So you know, if you're wrong, I would want to see that. But if you're wrong, I would want to see the indication. My guess is this thing is this kind of probably float back around the lows. Um and of course, any close back above a nine day moving average, you're probably going to get probably fairly close to the same dollar. Price point, maybe $1 10 on those calls. So I don't think you would want to get up on you, and then it closed back above it. But I would much rather wait. And see what happens over the next couple of days. See if there's anything else now. I mean, it's not a bad looking, probably one of the better looking or maybe even the best looking chart out here. But again, in a market that could see a fairly decent pullback and we, you know, I think we're going to have some kind of other issue. So I continue to think that it is problematic. Um in the market, but you know what? Um that's what makes the trade. Um I just like the risk reward. Um you know, when the same does turn around, if it doesn't blow out the bottom here, your long term targets $58. So pretty nice trade from 45 especially at a buck for $58. And of course, options are to reduce risk, not take much take more on the play would be to figure out if you were going to play it, just like you were buying the equity and your stop was in there. If you were going to lose 500 bucks, you bought so much stock. And if you got to your stop, you're going to lose 500 bucks. That's how much money you can use to actually buy the option. You're going to lose any more than if you played the ETF. But at the same time, you get all the upside in that option if it pays off. And this is like I said, probably not a better looking chart right now out there that you had significantly lighter volume back down and a test of the previous low with about half the volume at 4402 actually need a little bit more. 4452 is the low here today. So if you're going to play it another day or two, like I said, you may even get into next Wednesday before I would buy the calls on it, but keep an eye on it. Uh, did you do? Okay. Um, someone brought up Shopify. Uh, ETSY had some news. Um, this saying wasn't doing very good. It was kind of like Facebook and Facebook and Facebook and Facebook and Facebook and Facebook and Facebook list. That's okay unless you become a public company and everybody wants you to kick some money out. Well, they're getting rid of a lot more of those tie dyed FM type. Good time, uh, cockroach infested FM types. Uh, and Etsy and you got to start making some stuff that people buy. They're basically making one off things for other people. Uh, that is kind of moved a little long. Anyway, the news has kind of angered some Etsy, uh, FM, uh, incense burning kind of folk, which a lot of at the beginning, I think that's what a lot of them were. I think they're still kind of a decent amount of those folks that'll sell one or two or three or four things a week and they're happy with that. The Etsy people want to sell a lot of people thought that this was going to kind of do it right off the bat and it took a little while to put the flames to the feet of the executives at Etsy. Uh, but anyway, that's the question on whether or not it's moving, um, for Spotify because if you're losing your, uh, your seat at the table with Etsy, you can always go set up your own store over at Shopify. But if again, these people are probably not losing anything by getting rid of the people that aren't doing much. You got to have at least a certain level, uh, to push products. If people aren't able to actually get the orders out, which is generally a thing, you know, a lot of the stuff handmade Spotify, a little different issue in that they really don't care. They're not putting their name behind what Etsy is. Etsy is actually saying, you know, if you order this thing, you're actually going to get it, but you got to depend on that person that maybe they're on vacation, maybe they're fishing today, maybe they're doing a lot of other stuff, not kind of business oriented folk, but they are changing that. Uh, let's take a quick look at Micron as we look at that. Someone brought that up in the den. You got a little bit of a look at the top of this gap down goes back to May 6 came down with a 25.8 million shares yesterday at 51 million shares. So not too bad. Say 23 million shares. So looking much better than the rest. We'll look at some other stocks that have me starting to go home. And that's a little bit of a look at the stock. Only got a couple of minutes to close up shop for the Thursday. And we will do that be back in a. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most people do. And for the last 12 months, timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S and P 500 for the last 12, 6 and 3 months. Timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. 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What I like about this is a fairly good indication to support at about 125 we got to a low of what 129 looks to me like over the next week or so we could probably quickly find ourselves around that 125 area and that's just in the confluence area where support is it will be fairly good there but again this is one of the most if not the most crowded trade of all time. So I'm expecting a fairly quick sort of damocles over the heads of these folks they're in a probably somewhat illiquid market at this time if things continue to go south you've broke underneath the 3 by 3 or 9 day moving average my guess is that you're going to stay under that all the way back down to 125 and of course that sets you up for a fairly decent support level if you wanted to go long again but you know just the way this thing's acted and moved when it couldn't blow out the bottom and now try to blow out the top that 125 area is good the confluence levels come from two different Fibonacci sequences if you're watching on Tiger TV you should be able to see those you take the 3, 8, 2 of one and 6, 1, 8 of the other and if they come very close like they do in this one I like about a percent which is about what this one is that gives you a very good indication of where support is going to be so we'll look for that 125 on the DLT give you a signal that man we're back to the mean in the meantime tell when you can not when you have to and we'll see here tomorrow same bat channel same bat time