 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the general disclosure. All Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure. Trading futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Pass performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Doug chat channel in Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading in the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step of my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in Spot Gama Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups. And when I talk about setups, I will be talking about setups in an underlying asset. And those setups can be taken with futures, shares of stock, or options. And I'm looking at a level that is suitable for all instruments. Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the Options-Doug chat channel on Discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. And hello Karma FX, glad you're here. Welcome. Alright, let's get started. My agenda for today, first of all I want to cover economic data. There's a little bit of data that came out this morning as well as events and earnings for the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review a few setups from the morning and then we'll talk about the live market. So when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know. Alright, so first of all, economic data, news items. Today PMI data came out at 9.45 a.m. That was manufacturing PMI. That was less than expected, less than the previous number and also still less than 50. So still in contraction. Alright, so that was for today and really today is kind of the calm before the storm. So tomorrow consumer confidence at 10 a.m. and also after the close tomorrow are Microsoft and Google report earnings. So that is Tuesday and of course on Wednesday is the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. The announcement comes at 2 p.m. and then the press conference begins at 2.30 p.m. And sorry I can't pronounce your name and you too but he says hello from Ukraine. Hello, glad you're here. Welcome. Alright, so this is the big event for the week. The FOMC announcement and press conference on Wednesday at 2.30 p.m. Eastern time and then meta reports earnings after the close on Wednesday. And then continuing on for the rest of the week on Thursday. Thursday morning, durable goods orders GDP at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time and then finally on Friday, Friday morning at 8.30 p.c. comes out at 8.30 again and then Michigan consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. So a packed week really starting tomorrow and then kicking into high gear on Wednesday. Alright, so that's what's coming up for the rest of the week. Alright, let's take a look at charts now and I'll go through my positional analysis. So this is the S&P 500 futures ES futures and book map before I take a closer look at this. I want to take a look at a larger time frame. I'm going to look at SPX and this is just showing price and key levels. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. This just comes from the options market as well as the dash blue lines showing the lower and upper daily expected move. So right now SPX and ES are both up at just at their upper daily expected move. Alright, there are some spot gamma levels on this chart that's shown by the dark red horizontal lines. First of all, there's the SPX put wall. These are all proprietary spot gamma levels. The put wall is the strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And the next level up is the volatility trigger and that is at 4540. That's right here. That is spot gamma flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to enhance or increase volatility. So if for some reason the SPX starts to drop, then slips into a negative gamma environment that could could enhance or increase the move lower. And then the next level up is the 4500 level. Oops, I missed. I went too high. So there's the 4500 level. That is the absolute gamma strike. And note the volatility trigger did move higher from Friday and the absolute gamma strike move lower. So the put wall at 4300, absolute gamma strike at 4500. That's the strike with the largest absolute gamma. And then the volatility trigger above that at 4540. And then finally, the call wall at 4600. So the absolute gamma strike move lower, but the call wall moved higher. And that is the strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. All right, so those are the key daily levels for SPX. Let's take a look at another SPX chart, just a shorter time frame to see the level center play for today. And now this is the SPX upper daily expected move and prices have been has been oscillating above and below that level now trading above. And that is really the kind of the primary level that's in play for today. For SPX, let's take a look at book map. On book map, I have the SPX level shown and also spy levels. And then here's the upper daily expected move for ES. So note here that the upper daily expected move did act as resistance in the morning. And then the spy 453 large gamma two level around that level acted as support. All right, so that's the SAP 500 trading in a pretty narrow range after pretty sharp movement this morning. Now trading again in a narrow range up and down around the upper daily expected move looks like it may be heading higher to the spy 455 level. And for spy, there were a few shifts and levels as well. So the volatility trigger shifted slightly lower from 453 to 452. And most notably the call wall also shifted higher from 455 to 460. So for the SAP 500, both the SPX and spy call wall shifted higher, moving that potential ceiling for price higher. One thing to keep in mind is Friday was expiration. There was a lot of call gamma that came that expired. So it will take a few days for positions to build for August expiration. But so far today, we know that the based on the current positioning of the options market for the SPX and spy, both the call wall shifted higher, again, raising that potential ceiling. All right, that's the SAP 500 levels that are in play trading in a pretty narrow range today. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So this is the NQ futures and book map. And I'm going to take a look at a QQQ chart to show the levels that are in play for today. So this is QQQ. And for QQQ, the call wall also shifted higher from 385 on Friday to 390 today. And also the put wall shifted higher from 360 to 375. So bullish shifts higher for the floor and the ceiling. And here is the put wall at 375. And around that level, more or less, did act as support. Excuse me. So around the put wall, this morning did act as support, not exactly, but I guess close enough for the NASDAQ. And then this other combo level one has been in play. So really, the range for QQQ has been approximately 375 to 377. And now QQQ is oscillating up and down around the 376 level, which is not a gamma level. All right, so here's NASDAQ. And for NASDAQ, I'm showing NDX levels. And note, this 15475, that's NDX, 15475, acted as, that's the call wall. And that did shift lower from 16,500 to 15475. And that level along with this combo level did act as resistance earlier today. And that is just below the QQQ 377 level. And support here's the QQQ 375 level put wall. And I'm also showing the big round numbers for NQ, the zeros in the 50s. All right, so those are the levels in play for today for the NASDAQ. I talked about shifts and levels. So for NDX, volatility trigger and put wall shifted lower, as well as the call wall shifted lower, and also the absolute gamma strike shifted lower. So shifts lower across the board for NDX and for QQQ, which really is more important for the NASDAQ, both the put wall and call wall shifted higher. All right, let's take a look at some other data now. Right, so this is the gamma notional market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for SPX, SPI, NDX, and QQQ. So this is showing market makers position on the gamma curve. And again, remember that a lot of positive gamma mostly came out of the market expired on Friday. So gamma notional for SPX is still positive, but decreased from Friday. And interestingly, the gamma notional for SPI is still negative, but actually is less negative than Friday. And then for QQQ, gamma notional shifted lower, more negative. So positive for SPX and negative for SPI and QQQ. So based on this, based on everything I've talked about so far, first of all, my thesis for the day was a little bit higher volatility than last week, with all of that positive gamma, call gamma supporting the market expiring on Friday can lead to wider ranges, more, more volatility. So far, that really hasn't played out. You know, there are a lot of other other factors in play than I talked about just a few minutes ago, the data coming up. And then there's one other one other thing to keep in mind. And I talked about this on last last week. And this is from the spot gamma AM founders note last week, I think on Wednesday, showing the impact and on price action of a positive gamma, expiration versus a negative gamma expiration. So this is here, let's just start with start with the April expiration. So positive gamma expiration. And this vertical line is showing the expiration date. And then a few days, right after the expiration, the movement is down. And that is that is that as that positive gamma supporting the market comes off, expires on Friday. So this is the next positive gamics expiration on May. And again, the similar behavior. And there's June, just a few days moved down before the uptrend continues. So the question is, will that will that pattern continue for July? And again, considering all the other factors in play, the earnings, as well as the FOMC announcement. So a little bit of a conflict here in the in the thesis, just considering the move higher and the call walls for SPX, spy, and QQQ, my thesis would be bullish. But then considering this pattern, that that, you know, I guess that is a little bit of a caveat. So really, the key for today was really just to watch, watch order flow. And, you know, in the next few days, we'll see how the the levels start to build into August expiration. All right, let's take a look at some setups. So the first thing that I want to do is take a look at spot gamma hero. And we'll start with the S&P 500. This chart is showing price action for SPX. And then the hero signal hedging impact real time options for those who may not have seen this before. Hedging impact real time options. So this is showing options, trades, and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for SPX, spy, XSP, and ES futures, all under one combined signal. So if you're trading the S&P 500, this is typically what you want to take a look at. Let's zoom in on this. So first of all, for today, for the entire day, this is a cumulative signal for the entire day for all those instruments. And it is negative. So net traders are taking negative delta positions. The notion of value is minus 1.94 billion. All right, let's zoom in and we'll take a look at some setups from this morning. So first of all, this was a great short setup. I like to look for divergences, divergences. So note the hero signal starts to make lower highs. Traders are taking negative delta positions and price makes just around an equal high and then starts to move lower. And then that was the first short setup, just around 945. And then just a few minutes later, price reversed higher as traders started taking positive delta positions. All right, so let's go take a look at book map. Go back to the S&P 500 and zoom in on the morning. So remember, the first short setup was a divergent short right here at 945 at the upper daily expected move. And note that as price started to move lower, sell stop orders as well as aggressive sellers sell stop orders shown by the yellow line and the sub chart and then cumulative volume delta shown by the dark blue line. And you can see all the aggressive sellers starting to come in with the pink volume dots. That's buy minus sell, market orders, aggressive sellers coming in and move price down to around the spy 453 large Gamma 2 level. And the next thing to note here in order flow, as price was falling, larger traders were buying weakness with iceberg orders they used to hide their size. And then as options traders started taking positive delta positions, aggressive buyers came in. You can see the shift, the green dots and then a larger traders came in with iceberg orders, moving price higher back to the upper daily expected move. So short setup and long setup confirmed by order flow and hedging flow in in ES. And then it's been just kind of a slow grind up after that. Let's go back to hero. Alright, so that was the again the short set up nice divergence and then somewhat of a divergence to for the long set up. Alright, slow desire, he says AMC going nuts today. Maybe some squeeze on option sellers. When I get to the live market, I'll take a look at that. Alright, let's take a look at NASDAQ now. So NASDAQ, this is combined signal for NDX and QQQ. Gonna zoom in on the morning. So what I saw in the morning was confirmation short, not not as clear as the SB 500, but said I got setting up a short around 945. And then note hero starts to rise around 955 just in sync with the SB 500. So traders start taking positive delta positions. It took price a little bit to respond. But then starts to move higher. Let's go take a look at NASDAQ. So for NASDAQ, pretty similar to the SB 500, sharp move lower just after the data came out at 945. And note that cumulative volume delta and cell stop orders were already moving lower. And there were some large traders in buying with iceberg orders. It took them a while for to get their way. So as options traders were taking negative delta positions, and aggressive sellers coming in, as well as cell stop orders, price may lower high, and then finally drop below the 377 level as well as the NDX 475 call wall. And then the larger traders with iceberg orders finally started to get their way. As traders started taking positive delta positions, and aggressive buyers started to come in with last test of the 500 level in price rockets higher back up to this call wall level. So just like the SB 500, sharp move down, sharp move up, and then mostly chop or slow grind up after that. Alright, so that is the those are the setups that I saw this morning for the SB 500 and NASDAQ, both short and long confirmed by order flow and hedging flow. Alright, next I want to take a look at some stocks. And the first was Apple, let's go back and take a look at hero go to Apple. And Apple was another divergent short this morning. So what I like to look for is a divergence between the hero line and price. So heroes started to make a lower high, while price made a higher high, and then followed a few minutes later. Alright, let's go take a look at book map. So there's Apple, and a sharp move lower, just around the same time that the data came out 945. And the SB 500 and NASDAQ dropped at the same time. We can take a look at hero. And for Apple, no gamma levels in play for today. Right, the next is Amazon, zoom in on this. So in Amazon, there was a divergent short as well. Hero making lower highs, price made an equal high, and then followed down to the 129 hedgewall and below. Let's go take a look at book map. Amazon. So there's the short set up in Amazon. And actually started before the short set up before the NASDAQ and the SMB 500 few minutes before. So there's hero divergent set up divergent short. And one thing to keep in mind, I have to I'm presenting on one screen, I have to jump back and forth between these screens when I'm trading, I have book map on one screen and hero on another screen. So as I'm actually trading, I don't have to do all this jumping back and forth between the screens. So there's the short set up in Amazon. Remember 129 is the hedgewall. And that level has been acting as support today. Right, the next is meta. So after a strong run, strong one, earlier this year, and last few days, meta has been a little bit weak. Let's go take a look at, at hero for meta. So in meta, traders are selling calls that shown by the falling orange line, as well as the negative notional value here. And they're also selling buying puts. I mean, selling puts, I'm sorry. So that that number is positive. So they're selling puts and selling calls. So that is, that's bullish. And that's bearish. And for stock like meta, it really takes traders buying calls to to move the stock higher. So if they're selling calls, that's a good signal to look for if you're looking for a short. And if they're buying calls, that's a good signal to look for if you're looking for a long. So here was a, if you missed the initial entry, here was a good entry for short. Hero not really supporting a move higher. Let's go back and take a look. So it's price was moving higher. Looks like they were slightly less. Let's zoom in on this. Just so we can see the what was happening in the morning more clearly. So a slight bump higher in the put line. So they started selling puts stopped temporarily selling calls. And then as they stopped selling puts and resume selling calls, price started to move lower. Let's go back and take a look at book map. So there's that secondary entry point at 295. Nice move lower down to the 290 level. Let's go back to hero. And now 300 is the key gamma strike. Let's take a look at Tesla and Tesla is doing its own thing today. So in Tesla, traders are buying calls and selling puts as shown by the rising blue line and the rising orange line, orange for calls, blue for puts, both positive. And note, Tesla is trading below its put wall. The 270 level is a key level that is the put wall, the key gamma strike, and the hedge wall. So it looks like that is where price may be headed. Let's go take a look at book map. And it's almost there. So almost a 15 point move higher in Tesla. Actually, when we zoom a little bit, it looks like it is almost a 15 point move with a test of the 255 level. Just right after the cash open. Let's go back and take a look at hero to the combined signal. Just a steady, steady uptrend in options traders. Again, buying calls and selling puts as price heads up to that 270 level. Alright, so Desiree wants to look at AMC. Alright, that's interesting. So there's a problem with the chart here that I think the hero signal is correct. Showing by the purple line. So that is notion of value positive. But there's a problem with the price line showing flat. So I'm not sure what that is. So Desiree, sorry about that. Options. The hero signal, I'm pretty sure is correct. So an AMC traders of buying calls and selling puts. Alright, does anyone have any stocks they want me to take a look at? Alright, so if not, we'll go go back to the SMB 500. Oh, Microsoft. Okay, we'll take a look at Microsoft. The hero signal was pretty choppy this morning. Looks like it has now straightened out. Right Microsoft reports earnings tomorrow after the close. So it looks like it took a while for this to to play out. The hero signal really started to rise or around 1115, something like that. And then price really responded higher, started to respond higher around 1140. Let's go take a look at the book map, go to Microsoft, and pretty choppy session of Microsoft. And it looks like around the 343 50 level is where price started to move higher. Did a retest almost down to that level. Just below the 344 level. Let's go back and see if there are any spot gamma levels in play for today. No, they're not. Let's take a look at the SMB 500. I want to take a look at more detail and see exactly what traders are doing today. So I'm looking at the all all expressions that is all trades here. And I can take a look at zero DTE. I'll take a look at that in just a minute. So right now I'm looking at all trades all expressions. So that includes today and all expressions further out, separate outputs and calls. So this is showing that traders are buying calls and buying puts buying calls shown by the rising orange line and the positive notional value and buying puts shown by the following purple line and the negative notional value. So it looks like the put buyers are more aggressive today. That is minus 3.4 billion negative four puts versus right around 1.6 billion positive for the call buyers. All right, Hunter asked how to get hero chart. Is it available for all markets? So first of all, hero is part of a spot gamma alpha subscription. So this is one of the tools that is included with a spot gamma subscription. And it is available for a wide variety of stocks. It's not available for all markets, but it is available for a variety of stocks. I'll I'll I'll show you in just a minute show you the list. So it's available for for stocks, single stocks, index products like SPX and NDX, as well as futures. Alright, so let's take a look and see what the zero DTE traders are doing. So the green line, this is trades and options that expire today. That's shown by this line here. And then the purple line is showing all expirations, including the zero DTE. So it looks like the zero DTE traders are making up a large part of the options trades today, maybe about two thirds, just by comparing the notional value. Alright, let's take a look at just the zero DTE. So right now, zero DTE, they are taking negative delta positions. So they're fading this move higher. And just like all expirations, they're buying calls and buying puts, and the put buyers are more aggressive. Let's go back and look at all trades. And then let's take a look at a shorter timeframe to see what traders are doing right now. So I changed the rolling window, the look back period from all day from a cumulative signal to just the last 30 minutes. So right now this is showing that the hero signal at least for the moment has leveled off. Let's go back to the one day signal. And again, so far the trend for today is definitely lower. Let's go take a look at book map. Go back to ES and the slow grind up continues. Looks like there was some resistance at the spy 455 large gamma one level. Assume on this note all these orders in the order book. This is a history of the current order book. Limit orders. These were sell limit orders. Looks like they were filled. And then more sell limit orders that came in here right at this time. And waiting between the 455 and the 4565 level that is spy 455 and spx 4565 level that was noted as resistance in the spot gamma am founders note. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. And NASDAQ is back up at that ndx 475 call wall level and the qqq 377 level. We'll see what options traders are doing. Let's go to the NASDAQ signal. And in contrast to the the SMB 500 signal, this is positive for the day. So net traders are taking positive delta positions. So in the case of NASDAQ, they are buying calls and selling puts. Both the numbers are positive positive delta positive notional value. Let's go back to book mount. So right now NASDAQ trading in the upper end of the range for the day. The traders continue to take positive delta positions. Interesting that the stop line here the cell stop order the stop orders is negative for the day. And there's typically a very strong correlation between this the direction of the stop orders and price action. Let's zoom in a little bit closer. Go back and take a look at hero. So we'll watch the signal and see if traders want options traders want to take this higher. Let's check the SB 500. So so far, the SB 500 and NASDAQ, at least for a shorter time frame, so far right now, finding resistance, the SB 500 at the spy 455 level and NASDAQ at the 475 call wall level and price reversing lower. Any questions? Anybody have any questions? Let's go back to the SB 500. See if traders want to take this higher or lower. So far, there's really no sign in the in order flow of any any big reversal lower. And so don't sorry ask will that wall at 45 93 hold on ES and so far it looks like you know, it looks like it should there's quite a bit of limit cell orders in there. And that was noted as a resistance level the 4565 level and the 455 spy 455 level did act as resistance. We'll watch this for a few minutes. The SB 500 is moving so slowly today. It may not. It may not test it during my webinar. We'll we'll watch for a few minutes. Let's go check and see what options traders are doing. See if they want to push it up. Go back to the SB 500. So far, the trend is lower and hero. We'll go back to a shorter look back period and see if that gives us more insight. And this is ticking lower as well dark in this heat map up a little bit. Alright, so in the SB 500, here's what we know. So far, order flow is bullish. Large traders buying with iceberg orders by stop orders helping to fuel the move higher and also aggressive buyers. These numbers are all positive with cumulative volume delta. Note the lines in the sub chart all rising. So that's bullish. Let's go take a look at hero again. And cumulative for the day options trades negative notional value minus 2 billion. So order flow looks bullish. And the hedging flow, not so much hedging flow looks bearish. And the market maker hedging flow doesn't always have a direct influence on price. Sometimes it takes a while. So right now it really looks like they want to go back up and test those those levels again and that liquidity above. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. And karma FX ask is creation of higher lows and indicative of an uptrend. Yeah, sure that I guess that's probably the the definition of an uptrend higher highs and higher lows. Alright, so NASDAQ made its move first back up to the 472 level. Let's go back to SMB 500. So karma FX we can just draw, draw this uptrend. So after after the around the 10am low, the SMB 500 is making a series of higher lows in an uptrend struggling to get back up to the liquidity above. Now it looks like NASDAQ found resistance again at the 472 level. Alright, so I'm looking at another chart on another screen and I can see that Tesla starting to move lower, Nvidia starting to move lower, Microsoft starting to move lower, as well as Meta, Amazon moving lower, Apple moving lower. So that's starting to to look bearish. Alright, so at least for the time being, both the ES and NASDAQ reached potential resistance levels. And right now at least are moving lower, as well as the the magnificent seven stocks. Alright, my time is up. I want to thank everyone for watching. And I think today is probably the calm before the storm. Again, remember tomorrow, Microsoft and Google report after the close, and then the big events for the week start with the FOMC meeting announcement and press conference at 2pm on Wednesday that will be during my session. And whatever we're whatever I'm talking about on Wednesday, I will stop just before 2am, 2pm, and we will watch the market. After the announcement. Alright, everyone, thank you for watching. Thanks for your questions and comments. And I will see you tomorrow. Bye.