 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook with me, Patrick Munley, for week commencing August 19th. The main focus in the US next week will be on the FOMC meeting minutes, with markets looking for details regarding the Fed fund rate cut of 25 basis points from the last meeting. There will be a special focus on the Fed's risk assessment. Data slated for releases limited to Thursday's preliminary reading for market PMIs. Trade tariffs and the robust US dollar will likely continue to weigh on US firms across the services and manufacturing sectors, while July's leading index should register growth at trend or thereabouts. Housing data such as existing and new home sales are yet to demonstrate appreciation despite the increasingly low rates. The week will finish with focus on the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Powell is due to deliver the opening address on the challenges of monetary policy. From a technical perspective, the dollar index has recovered well this week and looks poised to retest the 9860 to 9890 area. As prices trade up into this area, I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to potentially set short positions targeting a move back down towards the 9750 and then 9650 in extension. Whilst we're talking about the US dollar, let's take a look at the price action in gold. Gold has continued to consolidate at the projected trend line resistance at the 1530-1540 handle. As this area continues to contain price action, we can anticipate a retest of the 1480 support and down towards the 1450-1440 area. I'll be watching price action in and around this level for bullish reversal patterns to potentially set long positions targeting a retest of the prior highs at 1540 and then up towards projected trend line resistance area. In Canada next week, the only data of note for the week will be July's reading on CPI, which should reflect annual core inflation holding at or near 2%. From a technical perspective, the Canadian dollar, as anticipated, retested the 13340 highs from last week and offers have emerged at this level. As this contains the price action, I would be anticipating a move back down to test the support at the 13230 area. I'll be watching price action in and around this level. If we get some bullish reversal patterns, I'll be looking to set long positions targeting move up towards the descending trend line resistance towards 135. However, a failure below 13180 would be a bearish development suggesting a move back down to test support at the 131 handle. In the Eurozone, Monday's core CPI will probably show that inflation remains anchored around 1%. With Wednesday's preliminary market PMIs likely continuing to weaken in the manufacturing sector. The main focus will be on Thursday's ECB minutes with markets passing the statement for clues as to any potential monetary package due for release in September. From a technical perspective, after consolidating for much of last week, the Euro has in fact rolled over and it now looks poised to retest year to date lows at the 11030 level. As we trade down to this area, we'll be watching price action, especially looking for any bullish reversal patterns with requisite momentum divergence confirming the potential for another leg of recovery, frustrating bears as they pile in on fresh shorts in and around year to date lows. If we do get that bullish reversal pattern, I would be targeting move back up to test towards the 11180 area. However, a failure below 11030 will open a move to test the major descending wedge support level down at 10950. Again, I'll be watching price action closely and around this level for bullish reversal patterns, giving an opportunity to set long positions to target a move again back up towards the descending trend line resistance in around 11150. Whilst talking of the Eurozone, let's take a quick look at the DAX. The DAX weakened this week and tested towards the 11200 level, where bids have emerged and probably more profit taking. What we have seen though is some divergence developing with our momentum indicators, which suggests there is potential for a recovery to ensue here, probably a three wave recovery pattern back up to test towards the 12200 level. From here, I will be looking for fresh sellers to initiate short positions, retargeting a move back down to test the lows at the 11,280 level. The data bag in the UK is relatively light next week. Only CBI trends total orders and right move house price index of note, both of which will likely be softer due to ongoing Brexit uncertainties. The sterling pound held the 120 level as support and has made an attempt at a recovery this week. As suggested in last week's review, I'd be looking for a close above 122 to suggest the potential for a further leg higher to target a retest of the prior low support zone in around 12390 to 124, where I would expect fresh sellers to emerge. I'd be looking for any bearish reversal patterns in and around this level as I'd be looking to set short positions targeting a retest of lows and likely an extension down to the 119 post-Brexit lows. In Australia next week, the main focus will be on the RBA's August meeting minutes due for release Tuesday with the market seeking further clarification on the details of the bank's easing signs. With that in mind, we will also be watching for RBA Governor Lowe's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium due on Saturday. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has continued to consolidate above the 6750 level. As we hold this area, there is the potential for a move higher to test towards the 69 handle. However, I'll be watching price action closely at this 69 handle if we see bearish reversal patterns develop here. I would be interested in setting short positions to target a retest of the prior spike lows down towards the 6680 level. However, if sellers don't emerge at the 69 level, then my next area of focus will be on the descending trend line resistance towards the 70 handle. Again, I'll be watching price action closely and around this level for bearish reversal patterns to once again look at the potential to set short positions. Again, targeting move back down to test the current year-to-date lows. In Japan, the focus will be on Thursday's preliminary market PMIs. With the manufacturing reading sub 50 for some time, the services reading should be more robust supported by an uptick in consumption ahead of the introduction of the October sales tax hike. From a technical perspective, the dollar yen staged a meaningful recovery this week and is potentially the first leg higher in what would be a three-wave corrected pattern currently with a target to complete in and around the 10750 area. As this area contains the correction, I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to set long short position, sorry, whereby I would be looking to target the spike lows down towards 10480. However, if we fail to hold the 10560 support level, then we can anticipate an early test of this 10480, where I'd be watching again for momentum divergence to develop and any potential bullish reversal candles in and around this level would be an opportunity to set short positions countertrend, however, but we could then target again a move back towards the 10680 level. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing August the 19th.