 Week 17 is a long a way to return to our comfort zone for NFL DFS because they're actually games We want to stack on this late for this week couple games with high totals and tight spread That is our sweet spot for NFL DFS We're gonna break down those games from a stacking perspective Let you know how we're stacking them who stands out and much more to get you set for week number 17 Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Good new law. He is the managing editor of number fire calm Brandon week 17 is here It is not the final week of the year. How you doing today? Yeah, I'm still trying to get used to that. I'm like, okay. We're one week out from the end of the season so it's week 16 Championship season for season long it's week 16. I'm like, we we've had week 16 So I'm still trying to adjust to that and it's not Not as easy as I would have hoped for it to be especially first, you know, we're just talking about recent weeks We're talking about this week and like I always have to pause like for a fraction and I always feel like it's super noticeable And speaking of noticeable I'm realizing my backdrop is a little crooked. So that's gonna bug the whole show I have no backdrop and it's just like a rogue like it's my mom my stepdad's house So like, you know, I was on more ways to win this morning and I like got some tweets about like the background because it's a You know, it's pretty fast. Yeah, there's a bar behind me, but there's lights and stuff like that There's a giant Santa Claus. I'm pretty sure from Germany over here. So, you know, we got some stuff hanging out I am excited back in Syracuse in the not terribly distant future get my Lovely lovely internet back and we a lot of fun But either way, I think that the people seem to enjoy the the bar behind here, but I think for week 17. I enjoy how Return to basic see this is I don't know if that's a word. We're gonna call it that though return to basics e because as Everyone who is a regular listener knows our process revolves around identifying gains or we could see potential shootouts stacking those games on both sides and Hoping that things play out a certain way There's also a lot of situations where you have good offenses in advantageous matchups spreads may not be super tight, but I think that still Good spots to attack for DFS We're gonna break down those game stacks break down the teams that are heavily favored and how to use those teams and Much more in one second first quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy Podcast feed NFL getting close to winding down so no more recap podcast But as a result of NFL winding down plenty of time for you to play some NDA and NHL DFS Tom Vecchio has you covered with that Via the daily ice and the daily geek that is every weekday right here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Austin Swames talking USC PGA back next week Brandon will have you covered with that. I'm off next week for that, but PGA back on the docket once again a lot of good stuff still to come here on the number fire daily fantasy Podcast feeds heads and scribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Also, FanDuel is now offering an exciting twist the beloved the same game parlay Now introducing same game parlay plus parlay not parley Possly poslay same game parlay plus which allows you to combine the same game parlays across multiple games All you have to do is head over to the FanDuel sportsbook and navigate to the same game parlay tab of the first game You're interested in select multiple bets from the first game and then plus it up Now you can add more bets from other same game parlay labeled games head over to FanDuel sportsbook today and Opt into the same game parlay plus must be 21 plus and present Arizona Colorado Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia Max bonus $1,000 site credit Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.FanDuel.com same game parlay plus available for multiple sports in all states on mobile and web gambling problem call 100 gambler visit FanDuel.com Rg in Connecticut call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it for confidential help in Michigan 1002 707 117 in Tennessee call the red line at 1,889-977-89 in West Virginia 1,800 gambler.net or in Arizona call 1,800 next step our text next step to 533 for two Let's take a look at the slate overview here for week number 17 to me Brandon the overview for this week is the game stacks and having two key games primarily Chief Spengles and Cowboys Cardinals That we want to stack and I think can stack pretty easily and I think that's just the key thing for me is our Process is back. So that's the key thing for me. What stands out for you on this slate? Yeah, that's the number one thing for me is just kind of figuring out what to do from a stacking standpoint in those two games and then What else can I be picky about in terms of rounding out my lineups? So, you know in recent weeks, we've had a lot of low totals. We have plenty of those again this week We've had a lot of big spreads We have those as well. So the spots where we don't have those concerns Are those game stacks, which I love so for me I mean, that's kind of the easy part is really just kind of cycling in players from those games So I think the real key for me is looking outside those games Taking a long hard look at someone like a Jonathan Taylor and how he stacks up against running backs Because we don't know what the quarterback situation is going to be for him Also, I know Cooper cups and like a half-ish sort of game stack game That we would consider what are we doing with him relative to those players in the game stack? So I think that I'm kind of taking that the game stacks as like the baseline so what I'm really focused on more is like the rest of the games and trying to whittle those players down and Make sure that I'm not playing guys in games that I don't like And just kind of chasing some value So I've been trying to figure out the one-off plays more than the game stacks Yeah, I think the key word you said there is picky being selective about the Players outside of these game stacks like they're guys in other games who I think great out well like AJ Brown Has an amazing projected target share for the Titans and I want that every time You know given how good of a player he is given that market share but do I use that over a CD lamb in a Game with a high total tight spread Jamar Chase T. Higgins, etc. Maybe you do I mean like AJ Brown's amazing But like I think that there is the wiggle room to be selective and try to identify the right spots to dive in I think it's gonna be tough this week, but I think that's a necessary step to take I don't know if you said that because you looked ahead on the sheet Okay, because Asia Brown is one of my wide receiver loves he should be he's he's a great option It's just like, you know that is the discussion you have to have Yeah So I think that he is kind of like he would be sort of the poster boy I guess Jonathan Taylor really too, but David Montgomery as well given that game is putrid, but his workload is amazing He's he's kind of the AJ Brown of running backs. I would say yeah So, you know, what do we do with those guys specifically and I kind of see it both ways with Asia Brown's like I'm overthinking Using him because the game's bad. I'm like, well, you know, I'm doing I'm trying too hard because the the workloads there But the game's real bad or I'm trying too hard to avoid that because the game's bad But I'm ignoring the workload. So I kind of I can kind of see it both ways where it's like right kind of Being stupid either way Depending on the the the side of the corner I land on So we can just hedge and you know do middling exposures that way don't look stupid either way Okay, let's break down the injuries and uh, kovat 19 news for week number 17 The big one is Carson Wentz. He has tested positive for kovat 19 His status for sunday is unknown. He can test out of it. Uh, but not until sunday morning In other words, we won't have final word on Carson Wentz until the morning of the games We'll talk about this offense in the trend section. Jimmy Garoppolo has a thumb injury and did not practice wednesday Sounds like he sells a shot to play but there's also a high chance that it's trey lance here Elijah mitchell also returned to a limited session on wednesday We'll talk about the 49ers in the trend section james connor missed practice on wednesday with a heal issue He has been called a game time decision by cliff kingsbury We'll talk more about them in the bookmaker section for rams ravens. Lamar jackson returned to practice wednesday He was limited. He was walking with a limp didn't look great But he was there at least other side of that game daryl henderson was placed in ir this week And there's a chance that came came acres plays Acres was not listed on wednesday's injury report, which means he was a full participant after he was activated from ir last week Reading shaw mcface quotes. It sounds like acres could play this week But nowhere near a full workload. Maybe i'm trying to read into what he said basically and that that's kind of the impression That i got we'll talk about that game in the bookmaker section clad edwards e-layer set out practice wednesday He is expected to miss this week that would put daryl williams back into Lead back duties. We'll talk about the chiefs in the bookmaker section The bills activated both gabriel davis and coal beasley off the cova 19 list on wednesday that means That they will be uh good to go this week and all the bills past catchers are healthy We'll talk about them in the trend section first one. We can discuss here. Here we go Miles sanders has been ruled out this week due to his hand issue jordan howard also missed practice wednesday Due to a stinger nicks irionia said he thinks that thinks that howard has a good shot to play And apparently this issue for howard is separate from the issue that he had a couple years ago They kept him out for like a crazy long time. Oh, which is also a neck issue Let's talk about both scenarios here. Uh, are you using boston scott if jordan howard cannot go and Would you use anybody here if howard does go? I don't think i'd use howard if he plays because i don't know what his workload would be Relative to boston scott it'd be somewhat of a 50 50 split with howard Probably i mean he got some targets last week, but probably have the better goal line role and scott generally profiles is more of the pass catcher, but So if both play i don't think there's enough there if we get scott without howard I think there's some intrigue there just because of how run heavy this team is But i don't know if he's my favorite value back and i really Really want to make sure that the the running backs i play have passed to you know 20 fandal points I think scott has that But he's not going to be a primary play even without howard. So that's kind of how i'm viewing it Yeah, i think that i'd be pretty into boston scott if howard can't go I agree with you where if they both play probably not going to get there We saw three games of them with howard and without sanders this year in those games We go by adjust opportunities, which is carries plus 2x targets in those three games scott was at 13 adjust opportunities per game and howard's at 13.7 68.3 yards per game for scott versus 70.3 for howard, which is not terrible, but also not enough to stand out 37 red zone share for howard So he had a good red zone role their roles outside of that pretty even That's not gonna be enough for me But if you give me scott without howard, I think that's pretty interesting back in week 12 They I think they were facing the giants and in that game sanders got hurt at halftime howard was not playing scott had I think like 15 carries and three targets in that game. That's a pretty good workload and that's even with sanders playing half the game Last week scott, uh, you know 12 carries in that one. He didn't have any targets, but like 12 carries there I would bet that if there's no howard we see a healthy amount of scott The question is do I rank him above dara williams devon singletary in the value range? Potentially chase edmunds in the value range. I think to me if I'm ranking them out If we assume there's no howard I think it's very possible scott would be my favorite guy there in terms of workload I like the situation better for devon singletary and I like the game better for dara williams So I feel like I'd be pretty even on all three personally Yeah, um, so I'm coming at this from I know that those guys are down there. Uh, plus potentially chase edmunds at 65 So if we lump all them together, that's four value backs if we call them quote unquote value backs, um, but we also have Some backs in the seven thousand range. Sony michelle david montgomery. Um, we have Joe mixon. We have austin eckler alvin chimera jonathan taylor on the slate. So if I'm throwing in Not that I like all of those guys necessarily, but if I'm throwing in Four value four value backs. I love, uh, david montgomery and sonny michelle at six jonathan taylor seven You know, that's not that many running backs for most people But I try to keep it to about five across my lineups, maybe six So I want to make sure that I'm again being picky So again, if howard plays I'm not into either of them if we don't get howard and it's full go with boston scott I got to figure out how I'm ranking those guys and I think singletary is still first for me just because of offensive expectations. Yeah But again scott's on that in that conversation and that's That's got a lot of appeal. Um, especially if you kind of talk yourself out of jonathan taylor, which I'm not recommending Or just in those lineups where you're not playing taylor and you want to go kind of heavier at the value backs So I think boston scott's a name to watch throughout the week. Yeah, I think that he will be in the mix and I think that he's Like if if we get edmunds with no connor, then he's edmunds is Like an s tier level play. I'll use your term. Um, that's not your term But it's from you use uh, he's an s tier level play where it's like unquestionably like amazing Um, so he's not in this discussion because that's just a different situation But I do think he's at least in the mix of singletary and williams I'd have to sort out where I view them relative to each other But I think they're all they're in the same tier to me is what I would say with that one The patriots activated remand rey stevenson off the covet 19 list on wednesday He will make the patriots backfield a three man committee once again and typically that's bad But it's a great spot here versus the jaguar So are you chasing any patriots here with stevenson being back? No Um, last time we saw that all three of them play they basically split a third of the snaps evenly That's not enough for me in in a dfs setting if you have these guys in season long and really need them That's one thing but this is not a spot in dfs that I would I would go at even in this match up Yeah, it's a great spot But with all three being active, I think that we can find better workloads elsewhere Especially the harris of it $7400 that's a hefty toll for sure On the side of that gate both james robinson and carlos hyder now an injured reserve for the jaguars Any swipes of the jags as massive dogs here or can we move on? I think we can move on. I know the value Like in terms of opportunity per dollar and salary is going to be there, but The offensive expectations are just not there for me hard pass Mike evans is on the covet 19 list after he tested positive on monday That put him in the window to test out before sunday, but he's also dealing with his hamstring injury The problem is we won't know the practice status for him because he's not able to practice due to the positive test We don't really know where his his hamstring is at because he's on the covet 19 list So I think fair assumptions that he sits again Where are you out in the box against the jets in that scenario assuming evans is out? Um, so I would go pretty heavy At antonia brown even at the salary of 8500 his workload was phenomenal And i'm definitely not going away from rob grungkowski whose salary didn't change from 6700. I know the workload wasn't there um, but it does kind of feel like And this is like a bit of a narrative thing But grok against the jets the team he's played a ton in his career just kind of It's really hard to to fast forward my brain to like the red zone recap where they show every touchdown Which I know is foreign to jim because he grinds the the the play-by-play the actual games Sitting through the commercials. I don't have a brain that's capable of handling red zone I it's really hard for me to envision the touchdown montage without rob grungkowski's name Yeah, that's not the type of analysis. I typically do But I think that we shouldn't just jump ship from grungkowski buccaneers pun, I guess but Just because of the like Yeah, just because the workload was bad last week. Um, that that he was still running routes just to get targeted Yeah, uh, so brown is 85, which means he's in the same range as stifon diggs. Tyree kill diva sannual cooper cup Even though his game is not the best I Might put brown second in that range behind cup and like cups kind of not in that range Like I know that like we got a good question from when I jack on youtube about like talking about teams with heavy spreads I don't worry about that too much with the bucks because They're weird and like vindictive in a lot of ways. I don't think tom brady likes the gents very much Um, and tonio brown has a lot of like contract incentives to chase and he needs a lot of targets to get there He should get them in the spot. Also I worry a lot less about a heavy spread when I know players can score points in a hurry And with the market shares I'd expect for an tonio brown and rob grungkowski in this spot I think they can get that so to me. I think of the 8000 plus receivers I think that brown second behind cooper cup And I think ronk is the final tight end before there is a pretty big fall off at tight end So I think I agree with you we're like Even though it's a pretty heavy spread. I want to be in on both those guys for sure What about ronald jones? $7,000 Facing the jets obviously a tremendous spot did lose some work To quiche on volm last week now. We talked in the recap show about how like hey This is the optimal script for jones and he still lost work But it's the optimal script again in that game. Uh, he's still at 20 carries and three targets That's a pretty good workload Where are you at on him? About 50% of the snaps again this week would be enough for him to have a pretty solid game I don't love the salary here and sorry. I was looking up The Tampa Bay pass rate when they were up by at least two scores They basically throw One up by two scores at the league average rate overall So again, that just kind of goes to your point of like i'm good with brown I'm good with grungkowski and that should Actually help someone like ronald jones even though it sounds contradictory If they're continuing to throw While ahead assuming that they do get ahead and play from ahead because Tom Brady is going to be able to be efficient against this defense That gets ronald jones more touchdown chances. And so yes, the snap rate wasn't quite there But the workload was was pretty solid. And I think he's a very easy pivot away from potentially chalky plays sonny michelle I don't know. David Montgomery never feels like he's really that that chalky, but um, you know I'm not out on jones, but I would rank him at least third behind those two backs at in similar salary ranges Yeah, I think he's very worthy of exposure. But again, we get into the same issue you talked about before We're like, we can't use everyone. We shouldn't use everyone. Um I kind of want to see where sentiment settles out on ronald jones like rosary projections because if he projects to be Not super popular. I could see him being a pretty fun tournament play then I can't use it in cash over michelle or montgomery. That's not even a discussion for me But like roshad pennies in a good match. He's had some big performances recently. You've got michelle. You've got montgomery there If we get jones hovering around like 10 roster rates You know, I could see that being a buy situation there, but um It's not a good role for his For his salary So I would need it would have to be like a tournament type pivot play One thing that helps is that It's a 14 game main slate and even though You know, you and I will cut out a lot of the Lower level plays that doesn't really seem to be the way that the field works So a lot of players like a givante or something will kind of churn out like a few percentage points of popularity so I don't think anybody is going to project to be prohibitively popular this week Even jonathan taylor because the salaries up. Um, we have these other value backs and people I think will love to play Value running backs that they can pay Um higher salaries for quarterbacks tight ends receivers and which I get it's much more viable This year than in years past whenever we've had three or four superstar running backs that you couldn't really fade um, so I do think that we'll get jones at you know tournament level leveraged uh numbers even with that I think we still might get david montgomery and You know sonny michelle closer to that than they should be based on their workloads relative to jones Yeah, I'd agree with that too. Okay. Elijah more is 50 50 to return for the jets this week He has missed the past three games to the injury. He's on i r right now So we don't know what his practice status is jameson crouter missed another practice on wednesday as well So if more returned any interest for you with the jets facing the bucks I don't think so. Um, usually when we play Players from one side we want to have it when we want to be able to run it back with players from the other side We have that with two possibly three games this week. That's usually again as you alluded to that's usually how we like to play Even outside of our the the the game that we're stacking with our quarterback We're running many stacks throughout the lineup too for that correlation I think this week i'm going to have my game stacks. So my quarterback plus, you know, whomever and then Just kind of one offs in most situations and I don't think that you know, so if i'm playing an Antonio brown Outside of a chief stack or something I don't feel like I got to bring him back with the jets I agree and same thing applies to michael carter within the same game too. His salary is very low at 57, but like It's the jets so hard pass Uh, just in fields able to get into limited practice on wednesday meaning he may return after a one game absence It's possibly still doesn't go there because I think he practiced last week too. So How does field status so it's fields versus an adult and versus nick foals impact your view of david Montgomery So fields has been trending up in terms of efficiency the more games he gets under his belt Which is kind of what you expect and also want to see it doesn't always happen for for rookie passers But it is happening with him. Um, they run A ton with fields. They do slow things down, but honestly i'm not going to change too much with montgomery just because his workload is Kind of hard to replace. Um at any salary Let alone his salary of what 72 Yeah, so I I just I love david montgomery this week and I don't care who's at quarterback Which is going to sound strange because i'm going to question a little bit jonathan taylor depending on his quarterback situation But you know the salary comes into play and we really need uh taylor to to score Once at least and have a lot of yardage Maybe twice to to kind of really hurt us at such a high salary. So i'm cool with montgomery either way Uh, but what are your thoughts on on him with fields? Well, his workload has been good regardless of who's been at quarterback past five games He's had three different starters at quarterback. He said three nine seven six nine targets The three came with dalton. Um, and I feel like people would view dalton as being the most advantageous guy for him to play with people seem to have an opinion of him a positive one, um, but like He's had a good role regardless. So I think that uh, montgomery I don't really care too much. Honestly, I should but also I think that part of that you were talking about taylor It is a salary, but it's also I think that nick foals who is like the worst of the three is better than sam ellinger So that's that's part of as well. Uh, deandre swift practiced in full wednesday meaning He should make his return against the seahawks. It is unclear though Uh, who will be his quarterback tim boyle Was at media availability wednesday jared golf off the covet 19 list but has a knee injury now So how would you view swift with golf and how do you view him with, uh, tim boyle this week? Um, so he's not a name. I've actually looked at just because It's the lions and i'm trying to be really picky with where I go outside of the stacks as I mentioned Detroit's implied team total 17.75 On the road against seattle who loves to kind of ruin games If they can um, they should be able to I can see the case for swift is like, uh, you know Usually people seem hesitant to play guys coming back from longer injuries, especially, you know more so than one week absences but outside of like the game theory pivot you still need touchdown upside and touchdown expectations and sure 17.75 Let's call it 17. They score twice swift could have one of those 100 plus yards, um, and a lot of targets He can have a good game But at that salary, I would rather go so many other places So I don't think I'm gonna end up getting to swift because I don't really like the other side of that game either Yeah, I had to pick you this week and actually whittle things down eventually and his workload is very similar to joe mixon His output is very similar to elie mitchell and both those guys are on much better offenses in better situations So I would just take them uh over him. I gotta I gotta cut it off somewhere And I think it's pretty easy to do so there The saints activated tason hill and adam trapping off the cova 19 list on wednesday. They're at home against the panthers How does this impact your view of avan chimera and any tason hill interest for you? Um, this might be an oversimplification, but i'm just not that into chimera Overall, um, just kind of haven't been Hasn't really hurt me aside from he's got some 20 point games in his game log I'm not saying you like he's Toaster or anything like that. I'm not gonna say some team is toast. It's not him. It's the team. Yeah, um, so if i'm if i'm allocating salary For running back, uh, it's not gonna be for chimera You know tason hill's run 11 times in each of its starts There's potential there, but you know, we actually have viable quarterbacks and similar salaries Not that he's a true value 7700. We have other quarterbacks. We have that prescott at 74 um, you know Joe burrow 77. I don't think i'm gonna play tason hill Just I don't really feel the the need to go here Yeah, it's chimera Not just a bad team But also like his workload takes a hit without with mark ingram being there Yeah, 68 yards per game in games with ingram One of them was like the in book game which we can probably toss out But I think he also like 31 yards in the game with hill. So like, uh, you know, it's it's whatever I don't really have any interest there Drew lock likely to make a second straight start for the broncos of teddy bridge water still dealing with his concussion They also placed him patrick on the cova 19 list on wednesday. So Could we see a bronco get six targets week 17 an unprecedented volume level for this team? I I don't think six. I think let's let's not get ridiculous here Maybe five over under five and a half for the for the leading guy. I think is appropriate under Okay fair. Um, Jared you're just getting seven and watch out. Um, But yeah, uh I think that this really just puts me on the chargers defense Yep, I think the only downside of the chargers defense is they're going to face a lot of rush attempts with melvin Gordon javante williams, which does cap upside but drew lock can generate upside in a hurry So I think that they are still a team that is on my list. Okay. Let's take a look at well at those game stacks We were talking about before and diving the bookmaker info quickly though Uh, I forgot to mention that the fan dual podcast network listener league is posted go to fan dual dot com Slash league slash listener league fan dual dot com slash league slash listener league if you were trying to get into it before It was not up. It is now. So go feel free go to fan dual dot com slash league slash listener league five dollar entry three entries max There is no rake five dollar entry three entries max no rake fan dual dot com slash league Slash listener league. Okay. The highest total on the slate is in dallas for the cowboys and the cardinals It's a 51 and a half point total cowboy saver by five as mentioned james conor mispractice wednesday He will be a game time call seems like the prototype for game stacks here It's also indoors at a slate where there is some uh, some wind any downsides of this game or no I don't I don't think no downsides. I mean that's not it There's never there's never a guarantee that a game hits, but this game seems about as primed to Give us a lot of fantasy points from pretty predictable players as we can get Salaries are low enough Um, I think the biggest concern for me is we're not going to know james conor status and it's a 425 eastern kickoff So we'll have to kind of have some flexibility built in to see if we want to upgrade other pieces, you know, if we got a chase admins, which That might actually be a plus in a sense if you're able to be around and kind of do that swap. So No downside, uh, maybe the downside is just figuring out what the the preferred stack is but that's a good problem to have Yeah, I think that a couple ways to work around the chase admin stuff christian kirk is the exact same salary as him Or pretty much the exact same salaries you could put kirk in your flex and swap to admins if Connor can't go other situations where shot penny is playing the late game He is a little bit higher salary than than admins that could be around you take unfortunately like it's not the best slate in terms of Getting there because the value backs we discussed before which were daryl williams uh, boss and scott and dead and singletary all play at 1 p.m And I don't have a high level of confidence that we'll get a shafty bomb the night before because the cardinals have been the One team very committed to actual game day calls and saying hey We're gonna take them to game time. I don't know if they just don't leak or what They should they should leak that'd be great If connor doesn't practice friday, I will have a healthy amount of admins in there Under the assumption that uh, that connor does not go and just kind of hope that you know roster rates stay Suppressed there and then I could switch to to kirk. Yeah, you know Or if connor one's going I'd probably keep some admin still because if connor can't practice He's probably not fully healthy yet, but I think that's kind of way to play things there the one thing That you could maybe consider is and we don't typically love this duo, but the salary's low Um givante melvin gordon both 61 sure Um givante limited in practice, but he was limited in practice last week and then got in a full by friday So, you know keep an eye on that but maybe something and I haven't run the numbers here, but like You know pivot down to to melvin or givante and then up to um, you know from kirk to like a Nmr. Cooper or something like that that might get you there or something. So yeah Yeah, you have you have a few options But that might be that could really pay off if we get the news to break the right way But I'm with you where chase edmunds isn't unplayable even if connor's expected to go Right. He's like his passing in workload is sick Okay, so let's take a look here at the past catchers in this game and also the quarterbacks Let's start with quarterback. Actually I changed my mind. Um, I think that kyler and dak Potentially the top two on this late. I don't know in order. I think that kyler is number one because The public tends to under roster underdogs and they're a five point dog here And we know kyler is a big path the upside, you know, the slump recently made push people away I think that kyler's one for turnies dak is number one for like cashy or like cashy type formats I think they're one too. What about you? Yeah, um I think that they're one too pretty easily I think moholms in that conversation and josh allen is in that conversation Hmm Yeah, I'll talk you into I have to talk you into josh allen. This is weird. No, it's just more again. It goes back to prioritizing the game stacks I've got a way around it. I'll talk to you about this in trends. I got a way around it I'll figure this out. Are you gonna flex a quarterback or something? Um, sure they let me Super they got super flex contests. Yeah, um But yeah, I think murry is the best tournament play dak the better cash gameplay. I think with burrow Like having that game at 71 last week might kind of get people to be like, I'm gonna get dak He's gonna throw for 504 This week, which you know could happen. I wouldn't be that's that's surprised But I think that dak will have a much higher roster rate than kyler murry will um But yeah, they're my one too For sure. Yeah, I think so as well. Okay. So they're the top two as far as the pass catchers go I think the best quote-unquote like values on the the cardinal side You got zack earths and christian christian kirk uh earths in the games without deandre havkins the past two games 28 target share 31 percent of the deep targets and 23 percent in the red zone kirk in that sample 24 percent overall 31 percent deep 15 percent in the red zone He is $6400 earths is 55. I think earths is A top one or top two tight end for this week kirk is Probably my favorite mid-range wide receiver for the cowboys I don't know. I mean, I just kind of take stabs at all three I think that for cash games none of them are really super attractive Maybe michael gall just because the salary is low. Uh, but to me, I think the standouts here are the cardinals guys Cowboys all in play for tournaments, but I think for cash games I'm okay shying away pretty even on all three of them I have a preference for cd lamb just because he is sick. Uh, but I think that's the way I go Where are you out of the past catchers here? It's kind of like them all Uh, okay, kirk earths. I like michael gall up a lot um, his target share isn't quite as high as lamb and coopers, but His target per out rate is not that far behind amari coopers Which I like in a game where he should be on the field plenty and they should be throwing and so Not a whole lot to sort of say negatively against any of the past catchers Problem is kind of narrowing it down to just one stack. I guess Yeah, uh, let me make you do it though. Uh, you got one stack for tournaments. Where are you going? for tournaments probably murray Urge just so that I take care of tight end and cooper Yeah, I have uh, kyler kirk earths and gallop I have both kirk and earths in order to save saury johnson taylor Um, if I use both it gets very easy to get to taylor. Um I've got a pretty good one in front of me which Does that it has taylor in there Not doing anything super super stupid at I have a game stack of chief's chief's bangles in there, too. So I think that using both is probably the route I'll take quite a bit just because You know, we do see tight ends crop up alongside wide receiver teammates pretty often in perfect lineups Or running back teammates. So I think that's the way I go uh, I also like Hypothetically if we get no Connor I would not be opposed to kyler admins kirk and earths in the same lineup I'd probably lost one of the past catchers off, but like I'd be I'd be open to it I wouldn't hate that. I mean the salaries are low enough that that it can work. Um, you know and We want huge upside we can get a little bit less tied to She like raw point upside if the salaries are low enough So I think they're all low enough there. Um for for the The flat will calm flex players here. Um, yeah, because collars salaries high, but yeah I just I love this team and I love this game any final thoughts for you on this game I Stack it Stack it, baby Second highest total is in Cincinnati for the Bengals and cheese total here a shot up to 51 So uh, some action on the over here cheese favorite by five. Uh, the chiefs will get Travis kelsey back likely no ceh for this game Is this game in the same tier as cardinals cowboys for you in terms of stacking Um, I think I have this in its own tier is the second tier a full tier below or a half tier I mean, isn't that just semantics? I don't know. I go half tier. I think it's like just a step below It's not a full like not definitive one too. I think it's like Tier one Tier one and a half well I've got More concerns about this game than I do the the other game. Sure. So I think that's enough for me to say it's a full tier Um, but it's it's it's more like this is tier two Then there's a big drop to everything else. Yeah, so either way Either way this game. I like a lot. I think though the one thing that's sticking in my head is uh, tirey kill status is You know, he got coveted and was exhausted and wasn't himself and like I don't know some guys have lingering issues and if we don't know What tirey kills the health status is that's going to be a little bit of a concern. Um Getting travis kelsey back, uh, but he also tested positive. So I don't I mean, it's uh Some of these guys get affected by it and have conditioning issues and we saw that with the mari we saw that with tirey kill Like I don't know what I so that I think that alone is enough for me to say if tirey kills not a full health This game has to be a full tier below. Sure game. Well, I think that the other takeaway is So like if I look at this game straight up without analyzing that I love travis kelsey because the bengals really struggle In preventing upside games to tight ends and running backs not as much to wide receivers So that would say to me. Okay. Darrell williams grades out. Well travis kelsey grades out well But kelsey as you alluded to just tested positive. So like What's his conditioning level at? I will say it is kind of a homecoming narrative for travis kelsey that can't hurt Plain and Cincinnati. So that's that's a positive but In a vacuum, I like helsey most I have that like slight red flag in my head though Given that he did test positive for cova 19 last week Not sure what the the status would be, you know, like you said tirey killed it struggle with it So i'm not sure that is something sticking out of my mind. It does not mean I i'm gonna avoid them Maybe I lower exposures half a tick but that's about it. I think that darrell williams is Probably going to wind up being my favorite lower salary back like I was talking before I was tough to decide Might give him a slight edge over single terry the one reason i'm not like committing to him as a top guy despite this being a great game is Derek or has played pretty well. It's mostly been garbage time So like he's been coming in for mop up type duty But he's been good and that can sometimes lead to expanded workloads It did not lead to an expanded workload In week 17 because the first three quarters Williams is out snapping him 26 to 9 So that's why I still like williams, but it does stick in my head at least a little bit. So Best matchup for kelsey and williams But the slight slight concerns I think are why I can't be as enthusiastic about this game as cardinals cowboys Yeah, I I think darrell is going to be um Not a core play for me Potentially close to it. I might wind up putting him first among the value backs too I know it's kind of strange to be non-committal at this point, but it's really hard to figure things out and it takes a You know, it takes that long longer longer longer look As we get closer to sunday really nitpick see what other value opens up See what we see the status reports we get on karsten wenz so that we can change how we view jonathan taylor If we don't if we get sam ellinger I'm going to bump down taylor It's that's going to make me more open to rostering multiple guys in the 6000 range as opposed to just like two of them I might play all four of them if If we get ellinger and I want to scale back my exposure on jt So, you know, there's it's it's a lot of moving pieces here But I think that uh, this game is still With any concerns with tire kill great because we can play travis kelsey and assume that he's you know good to go Uh, but for that reason I just I can't put it in the same tier Yeah, uh, again, I think I'm closer to being with you where it's a full tier below that I end up putting it in the exact same tier So I think that's the way I'd say it as far as the bengal side goes Joe mixon is my favorite of the non jt high salary backs because He has the same workload effectively as osu. Neckler But he's in a better Game slash matchup He leads all second tier backs in yards and scrimmage per game and is most relevant sample Tied with deandre swift for red zone share and each guy is most relevant sample Best game very good offense. I like that a lot for for mix it as far as the past catchers go in a vacuum in a cash game Give me t higgins. I think he's tremendous. He's $7,000. Very good player gets good workload shush. Keep your mouth shut um Great workload for tournaments. If you give me a single entry lineup, I want to get to jimar chase because T higgins just blew up t higgins has a lower salary people are probably going to gravitate that way uh chase in the game siss higgins returned Still has a 24 target share. He actually leads the team in deep targets the 38 higgins 31 22 red zone share as well. So if we're talking about Probability of eruptions. It's probably pretty similar between t higgins and jimar chase So for tournaments, I would like to get to chase because I think that he is going to be Less popular than higgins this week despite the fact that should be about about even I think that's pretty attractive to me So that's where I'm at the bangles. What about you? Yeah, it's it's it's funny because I've been going uh to t higgins Because the workload has been better for t higgins And the popularity expectation is generally lower Yeah, and that's kind of flipped with the salary discrepancies. And so now I've been playing jimar chase more in recent weeks and of course Um, you know that didn't necessarily pan out for me last week. It wasn't terrible jimar chase was still pretty good Uh, but it wasn't t higgins level, but yeah, I'm with you where I think that that chase is the better Tournament pivot both are very much in play like joe mixon a lot The one thing I will note here is that I would anticipate and again quarterback popularity is always kind of flat It's going to be super flat on a 14 game mains late, but joe burrow is As we talked about last week pretty matchup sensitive and he's facing another good past defense this week He's averaged in four games against top 12 adjusted past defenses based on number fires metrics and the cheeser eighth Um, just about 260 yards per game It's I'm not saying that he's going to stay under 300 yards if this game, you know goes back and forth But that's the one other bit of hesitation I have here So like between burrow struggling a little bit more against good defenses Not knowing where tire kills conditioning is That's why again, I'm just kind of I can't put this even a half tier below So I'm much higher on cardinals cowboys and that's going to dictate a lot of what I do Um for my core lineups Where is burrow for you in terms of rankings at quarterback because to me it's like kyler dak one two I think my homes and allen are battling for three Pretty tight there and I think I'd put tray lance if he were to start above burrow too And I don't usually get six quarterbacks. I don't usually get five Um, so I you know that might make it tough Where what about you? Are you in kind of the same page there? Yeah, I think after the eruption um, and after The looking at the matchups and situations for the other quarterbacks Probably just going to be a bit lower on burrow to the point where he's outside my top four top five I'm probably not actually going to play him which is a little bit scary Um, that's not to say this isn't a two quarterback game because I would say this is a two quarterback game But yeah for sure and we just have better options and I can't I can't get out of my head like the idea that that burrow just struggles a little bit against the good pass defense Okay, let's move on here to the uh third game in the bookmaker section My projections have the rams as the third most efficient offense this week behind the bucks and the bills Rams are three and a half point favorites Against the ravens total is 46 and a half lamar jackson may return after getting in a limited session on wednesday Cam acres also has a shot to play which could impact how have you sonny michelle could uh the rams here are very interesting But the question is do you rank them above the offense like the bucks like the bills 49ers patriots Who are super heavy favorites against bad teens because I think that that's the tipping point I get to is Okay, I like these two game stacks more Here I start to look at the uh the better offenses. What about you? Um, so the rams overall, I don't know that I like more than some of these other teams But sonny michelle specifically I like a lot I think it's virtually and I don't like to project and assume Like without seeing some stuff and whenever there's uncertainty I just try my best to stay away, but I cannot imagine kim acres entering like a 50 50 timeshare with sonny michelle or anything I think sonny michelle is going to have at worst A 70 snap rate more realistically product 75 80 percent With cam makers barely factoring in so for me I'm not going to say that I like the rams better than the bucks or the bills or the 49ers, but I do like more than the patriots. I'll say that much because yeah, I mean, who do you like? Who would you like on the patriots? so Sonny michelle, uh, definitely is a standout here, but I don't think I'm going to get to like stafford anyway I'll play a lot of cooper cup if I can which is like the Tamest take of all time, but you know, I might Not get there a ton if I end up on jt like I got a kind of There's not that much value to where I can play cup and jt In the same lineups and feel great unless I go with the trailance lineup And even then I might have to see how that shakes out Yeah, I think that if it's if we get karson wenz here, I'm going to choose jonathan taylor over cooper cup In terms of prioritization among the studs. That's not to say I would be upset to use cup if uh, if Elinger were to start over wenz, but I think that's a fair discussion to have I think michelle is kind of the key standout here. I think the bigger implication is I'm not Super super itchy to get chairs of like odoe beckham van jefferson. I've used a lot of van But like, you know, you look at the the game since they're by week Things started to shift more towards odell in the five games 19 percent target share for odell versus 16 percent for van odell has leads in both deep targets And red zone targets over van too and the sour gap is just 600. So like I think odell actually does work in that mid 6000 range because he's competing Uh with So t higgins gets lopped off. He's by a monrasse brown and marie cooper dk mech half then odell michael pantman christian kirk. I would rank kirk above him. I would rank cooper above him But then odell comes in after cooper. So like he's in play, but I prefer those guys over him Yeah, so I don't really think i'm gonna play much of the The rams pass catchers outside of cup. I'm trying to take a long hard look at mark andrew's within this game I know we're talking more about the rams, but yeah If i'm playing mark andrew's I think I gotta play well So I just stack with sony michelle most often, but I think if i'm gonna play andrew's I at least need to be more open to like beckham and van So I think that that might be just a very easy pivot away from cup who probably have a lot of popularity Sure, even at that salary michelle might get there himself unless the the concerns about can makers scares people off So I think andrew's and like van is a Very justifiable pivot that you don't have to kind of convince yourself too hard on But outside of that i'm not gonna play van and and odell. Yeah, I'd agree with that. I'm looking at the raven side of things here marky's brown I like think I should like because he gets targets he's $6,300. I love andrew's so like why wouldn't I like brown So I thought of his game log here is recent yardage totals 44 43 41 55 51 37 The last time he went for more than 55 yards was november 7th In that overtime. I think it was an overtime game against minnesota If it was minnesota, it was probably an overtime game. Correct. Exactly Like it's been it's been bad and that's despite getting at least seven targets in all those games He had 13 for 37 in one of the games you had 14 targets for 43 yards. Yeah, like It's rough like I tried to talk myself into him because like, you know, it's a decent game, etc. Etc. But like That's tough. Um Will you get to lamar if he plays or no? You know, I think it's yeah, we have a lot of quarterbacks. It's uh, if he's hampered stuff like that Any stafford for you? I don't think he does enough relative. Again, if I were playing In Six quarterbacks, he might be I could maybe put him in for six because I like the game enough to bump him up a little bit more But other than that, like I'm not quite there. And so that probably makes him a really good tournament play I'm not saying he's a bad play. I'm saying he's not high enough on my list that I'll actually sit here and say I'm gonna play a lot of stafford. Okay, so acres practiced in full wednesday They've said that he had there's a possibility plays In addition to those quotes, that's the one that got blurbed up on mbc sports edge Other things that shaw mcvay said though is that he's been acres have been running off to the side Uh, kind of doing his own thing to ramp himself up. He doesn't know if or when acres will play so He could play this week, but like reading those quotes makes me think if he does it will be in a very very limited role Are you getting a similar vibe? I'm just the vibe i'm getting is sanny michelle is going to play like 85% of snaps. Yeah, if he does that for 71 I know the matchup is tough, but I don't care. Yeah Whatever, so I think we're on the same page there. Okay, let's move into the trends discussion here for week number 17 starting off with the colts some uncertainty around whether carcin wens will play but I think the fair assumption right now is he does and We have to discuss what we'll do a jt if that does happen You're going to take a look at what the colts have done in similar matches to what they get this week. What did you find there? Yeah, so of course, there's uncertainty about carcin wens But I think either way we can do a little bit of a trend on them Let's either colts against sort of past funnel defenses or the colts without carcin wens, of course Not a whole lot of uh sample size on sam ellinger, but we'll get there The colts play the raiders Who are 25th and adjusted past defense based on number of fire smetrics but fourth and adjust their run defense So that means they're more beatable against the pass pretty tough against the run And the colts have faced three teams that are 18th or worse against the pass but also top eight Against the run now all of these came week five or sooner So that was before jonathan taylor's role spiked But in those games carcin wens averaged 300 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns for 20.5 fandal points per game In all other games 194 yards 1.7 touchdowns 15 and a half fandal points per game So the passing production has actually been there in similar spots But again, this is before they started leaning so heavily on jonathan taylor Now their non garbage time pace. So when their pretty snap win probability was between 20 and 80 percent They averaged 31.6 seconds per play on passes and runs that would rank 30th out of the split 33 seconds per play that would rank last either way. They're not fast, but They're pass rate in these games against again against like good run defenses beatable pass defenses 61 That would rank 11th on the full season Out of that split 55 56 percent that would be 20 second. So That does show a tendency to kind of do the right thing throw the ball more against bad pass defenses with good run defenses Now they have face four top 10 rush defenses since that week six role change for taylor But all of them are also against top 11 pass defenses. So just good defenses overall So it's not a perfect fit for what this matchup is But in those games karsten wenz has had 26 attempts 51 in overtime and sort of trailing Later in the game to the titans. So again 26 51 20 and 28 um and in those games jonathan taylor's averaged 23 carries three targets For 29.3 adjusted opportunities per game 136 yards 25.2 fandal points per game. So Even though there's a chance that they throw the ball a bit more with wenz There's still plenty for jonathan taylor and again throwing the ball Against bad pass defenses is generally a good thing for running backs. So i'm not that concerned My fear was just going to be that they actually because this team is They've shown that they're they're smart enough to kind of take advantage of matchups So even with that, I don't think there's enough to go away from taylor Um, that was the ultimate goal for the trend assuming wenz plays I will say in in those four games against the get like a tough rush defenses Michael pitman juniors got a 30 target share. It's nine targets per game 34 percent error to share I think he's a very viable pivot if we want to go away from taylor You know assuming wenz plays So if we get wenz, I like taylor I think that pitman juniors is a decent pivot if you want to kind of talk yourself into that But if wenz isn't cleared the team is going to start sam ellinger the team seems to like him well enough, but Just a super small sample in the preseason 31 pass attempts 9.3 yards per attempt three picks and the touchdowns He had a 63.8 passer rating or passer grade from pff Like I just I can't imagine that there's going to be enough there So you say okay, they're going to lean on jt feed him as much as he can if they're starting sam ellinger Usually we're going to say that's not a good thing And I think a lot of people will think that's a good thing because the efficiency for this offense is going to go down so Basically i'm anticipating minimal passing efficiency and scoring opportunities for this team. So i'm having a hard time Getting super excited about taylor if we get ellinger Is that dumb what's your read on taylor in this offense this week? Yeah, I think um It Okay, so like let's say We have a situation where ellinger ellinger is going to play i'm not going to cross off taylor But i'm going to lower him a lot because yeah What's your what what percent of rosters you think taylor will be on if we get wenz and then what does that drop to with ellinger? I would say 50 to 60 with wenz Yeah Yeah, and then dropping down to 25 percent with ellinger probably I was going to say 25. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's probably where I'd wind up as well. Um So it's a significant thing For the reasons you mentioned. I don't think i'm going to get to pitman if wenz plays Um, yeah, I think the target stuff makes sense But like he's by kirk. He's by Other like amari kooper is there gals beneath him Uh, really hard for me to go with him there, especially, you know, I mean wenz did test test positive too Not sure what his conditioning level will be so uh, I think that's where I'd be so Cutting exposure in half to jt if it fits ellinger and probably not him on the past catches regardless Yeah, I think i'm with you where it's uh, it's enough to downgrade jt And I don't view it as a positive that they'll just run the ball more We don't really think that way here, which can be wrong The workload but the thing for for taylor's the workload's going to be good either way So you might as well want that tied to better at touch on expectations And and people do think that way because when erin rogers was out Against the cheese erin jones was among the top seven backs and rostrate that week Despite issues with his workload and stuff like that. So people do think that way So We should be reacting to what they're not Okay, let's talk here about the 49ers because jimmy garoppolo has a thumb injury. There's a chance he plays this week So this trend could be mute some moot similar to brandon's but it's worth digging in To see how we'd alter our view of the team In a very good matchup should tray lance start We do have a one game sample on lance that was back in week five against arizona It's important to note that george kiddle did not play in that game had he played Things might have gone better for the offense because he's a massive massive difference maker With that noted the early down first half pass rates in that game was 41 That came on just 22 plays cardinals ran 29 the first half the 49ers ran 22 It was a pretty slow game The early down first half pass rate for the 49ers and games that garoppolo started is 50% So you'd expect their pass rate to decrease about 20% From where it typically is as a passer lance average negative point one two passing net expected points per drop back He finished with 31 drop backs He should be more efficient here with kiddle healthy and in a much better matchup versus houston But it seems like the fair baseline assumption is that they will be a low value volume passing offense With lower efficiency than what they have with garoppolo I think that lowers the appeal in all three of kiddle debo and iuk significantly Potentially to the point where I don't use them in dfs this week I do think lance would at least be a consideration His salary 64 dollars ran 16 times 89 yards Now he's getting uptick and passing efficiency due to the matchup and kiddle It is a good slave for quarterback So I don't want to get too high on him, but I do want at least some lance in my player pool I think that he's worthy of that even if it doesn't mean I use a fifth quarterback this week Which is more than he typically do we also Might be able to adjust to void all headache here and use elijah mitchell Mitchell returned to a limited practice on wednesday in the games He has played this year mitchell has averaged 98 yards of scrimmage per game with 18 carries in two targets Whenever he has been healthy they have committed to him. He's 7800 dollars. That is not outrageous. So I'm into lance as a second tier quarterback play if he goes Likely out on the past catches that that happens, but I'd be very okay at mitchell if he plays How do you view this team brandon if trey lance gets a start on sunday? Yeah, I think It's it's kind of whether lance starts or if we get like a not hundred percent jimmy garoppolo I think I'd have to be lower on Uh, george cato and brandon iuk specifically. I think that there would be enough Just like low a dot targets and rushes for debo samu to be a little bit of a nuisance, but At a salary of 9 000. I don't think that that's enough to kind of justify Going with debo samu, but of course i've been I won't say anti debo samu because I like debo samu. I'm just like it's super hard for to project someone like samu Overall now kind of trying to adjust for a really run heavy script even more so Probably not going to play debo at 9 000 either I do think this would be a big bump for elie mitchell. It's 78. I think that he would be potentially A top five running back play for me if he's good to go Because of the situation the houston's not a good run defense He has shown You know feature back workloads. The only thing I would really be concerned about is losing goal line touches to trail lance, but I think i'm just kind of out on the past catchers. I consider that I think we're on the same page here Like I consider some lance I tried to build a lineup With taylor cup even zacher. It's there just to kind of minimize Titan salary the panthers at 36 for defense with trail lance So it's no need a running back two receivers in a flex and i'm at 6075 left, which is doable. That's pretty doable. Yeah But you got like narrow paths two of those 6000 is running backs like a michael gallup. It's doable. Um I don't know if that but I don't know if that's so my thing is like If i'm staring at that And we're looking at like our bobble hat contest our head-to-head I don't know if that's enough for me to say. Oh, this is definitely the right route right And I feel like it should like I feel like I should probably Feel better there So I might try to just get up an extra thousand to get to dak in a spot like that Yeah, I mean, I think that that's a fair discussion to have, you know Is lance someone I need in my player pool know what I like him. Yes I think that's the way that I'd view it there if it gets me taylor and cup Maybe I do need it, but uh, you know, I think that's kind of the discussion. I'd be having there for sure Okay, let's move to your second triangle and talk about the chargers here because we do have osse neckler on this slate Mike williams should be back keen now and is here a lot of high usage fun guys But they're facing the broncos broncos kill fun So brandon you're talking about uh upside games allowed by the broncos and whether We should still be in the chargers in this spot Yeah, so we have a few obvious games that we want to get to this week So when looking outside those games again, I talked about being picky being really particular If we're looking outside those games we want upside we have some big names In this chargers offense, but I don't know if we have the big upside that we really want And part of that is just because of the broncos But I would say like the chargers just based on like team player recognition is like This could be a spot that like people aren't on as much as they should be but I'm gonna pump the brakes here. Um before even digging in to the numbers There's a second time around divisional matchup for them And the first game jesson herbert did put up 303 yards to touchdowns two picks for 21.7 fandal points, but That was the highest single game output for any quarterback against the broncos all year I see lowest peak of You know allowed by any defense Speaking of peaks like single game peaks in terms of fandal points Denver has also allowed the seventh lowest single game output for running backs Second lowest for receivers and the lowest for tight ends So basically if that's a little confusing The best game against Each team based on each position the broncos basically have just suppressed blow-up games for every position Receiver tight end running back quarterback. It's it's it's crazy what they've done We've talked about that a little bit throughout the season, but That is a big negative whenever we're we're looking at broncos games and of course With what they're doing on the offensive side They ruin their own team So broncos games generally just bad and i'm trying to get i'm willing to be different. I'm willing to look deeper at teams that aren't so obvious because I know If you're listening and you're looking for like tournament plays and we're talking about stacking the games the high Totals and tight spreads. It's not the most fun But there's a reason sometimes and the reason is like some other games aren't as good as they might We might want them to be now. Herbert has been great. He's at point two zero passing that expected points per drop back Double the league more than double the league average of point zero nine He's performing over expectation if you adjust for opponents But against teams ranked six through eighteenths So comparable to the broncos at 13th and adjusted past defense Herbert still averaged 302 yards per game 2.7 touchdowns coming off a down game the chargers can't afford to lose There are concerns that you know denver runs the ball often and well because the chargers are 30 second against the run Probably according to every metric, but specifically here according to number fires adjusted metrics But you know herbert still threw 44 times in negative script in week 12 like Austin eckler had eight targets 12 carries keenan allen had 10 for 85 getting mike williams back like I still kind of want to tell myself that the chargers are a sneaky offense Despite the fact that the broncos defense has said everything to the contrary So We're looking for any sort of ways to be different pivot Are you looking at the chargers or are you just kind of crossing them out? I can't cross off eckler, but I want to like that's that's what I'm at is I'd like to I can't but I'd like to So there have been Three times this year where either a bronco or their opponent has been in a perfect lineup. Can you name any of those? So three times a bronco or an opponent has been Yeah, three total times No Malik turner in week nine against the broncos that game where the broncos towards the cowboys and lake turner got two garbage time touchdowns melvin gordon week 14 I think that was the lions game Where he had like two touchdowns and so did javante williams and noa phantom week six That was when jerry judy was out. That's it They are a garbage team for dfs like they kill all things fun and like they've been a good team This is no shots higher at a denver, but like for me the dfs player Bleep them. I don't I don't want any I have I like I hate them So I just don't want to deal with it. I'd like to cross off eckler. I might Would like to get there because it's a just a dumb a dumb situation. I've got a lot of options I don't want to force it in bad situations Yeah, so I think I might even be out on eckler We're trying to narrow down our our running backs and our player pool in general I think there's not enough for eckler even again. He might get double digit targets But I don't know if that's enough for me I agree with that. Okay, so let's move on to my second trend and talk about the bills because they are justifiably 14 and a half point favorites against the falcons. My numbers say it should be 11.4 So, you know, not quite that big but still a one-sided game I want to dig in to see How we should alter the bills on a game they're likely to dominate Lucky for us There's a large sample here because the bills despite almost not being in the playoffs Have won nine games by at least two scores is here. They're a wild team in those nine games Josh Allen has crushed. He has averaged 27.3 fan dual points per game He has scored at least 31 fan dual points and three out of nine games He has scored 36 twice Our worry about quarterbacks and games with heavy spreads is upside That is not an issue with josh allen specifically his salary is $8,800. That's the highest in the slate I love the quarterbacks in the game stackable games But i'm considering putting allen in a quarterback Stacking him but having no bring back and then i'll game stack the shootouts with the other slots on my roster There's a strategy brand to get around it. I was talking about before The upside issue has been more partnered with the past catchers in those nine games Only four times has a receiver had 20 plus fan dual points The fun thing is it was a different receiver every freaking time. Love it Uh, there have been 17 guys who have gone for at least 15 fan dual points in these games Five of them were running backs. Dawson knocks it three times Which leads us with nine times where it was a receiver So basically one receiver per game topping 15 fan dual points in those games And to me, that's a bit underwhelming Plus coal beasley gabriel davis are back Less open in terms of targets than it was last week with both stafan digs and isaay mckenzie Had double digit targets. I also don't really know what the snap distribution will look like with all guys being healthy I think the takeaway for me is that I should be very open to running allen by himself Out there as a quarterback I should also give strong consideration to stacking him with dead and singletary or dawson knocks that way I sidestep the receiver issue and can keep the receiver slots open for the game stacks I'm still going to use to fondig's. I think he helps me justify going else But I but I think that like he'd be the one guy I'd want to turn to here But this discussion has made me open to being a bit weird with my quarterback slot specifically with allen So a do you agree with being high on allen and b Are you receptive to being higher on singletary and knocks for stacking? I'm cool with with josh allen like in a vacuum I have nothing bad to say about josh allen but you i'm glad you clarified because uh, you said in your notes say that um You're considering putting allen in a quarterback stacking him and having no bring back The issue is in the middle of that stacking him is He is so hard for me to stack Harder than probably any quarterback I primarily play because You think it'd be to the fondig's But it isn't usually to the fondig's it can be but it also can be anybody else It can also be like nobody in particular and that is an issue because If josh allen puts up 30 and you have him with stiff on digs or even like a gabro davis Or or just whoever and they get Like 12 points. Yeah, that's not a good output. That's not like a good stack So you have to be open to playing josh allen by himself, which I am But then the probability uh goes down for your lineup to hit because generally when a quarterback has a good game His receivers have good games. This team just doesn't operate that way So I've been lower on allen just in terms of like I i'm always high on josh allen But I don't play him as much as I should or as as much as I like him So I think that you're on to something with like a single terry knock stack I don't know if I'll get there with knocks because I have too many other tight ends that I think are in good spots, but A single terry allen stack is probably going to be my favorite and I don't actually know If i'm building 10 lineups Overall not 10 josh allen lineups if i'm building 10 allen lineups I might just stack them only with single terry and not risk Trying to guess at the at the receiver stacks, but the overall takeaway is you're receptive to that strategy of like yes Yeah, okay, cool. I think the best corollary in terms of Who is healthy for this week would be week 14 That was the game where they are facing uh tampa bay in that game Stifon digs at 13 targets colby's li at 11. Those are inflated because they Played in overtime and were playing from behind, but this was a large guy there. Yeah Dawson knocks in the game did have nine targets. That was more than gave davis more than devon single terry I think that's kind of interesting so I think that knocks is I might just use him with allen, but I think I would use him with allen I think the honest is like if you give me 10 allen lineups. I'm probably going Three knocks three single perry three digs one naked Somewhere I don't I don't have anything Against that if you're cool running out 10 allen lineups So market share wise that that week digs would be at 26 bz 22 nox 18 davis 16 single terry 14 Yeah, um, those are fine market shares. Those are good But even concentrated over five players is kind of a lot Yeah, it is so yeah That's what I struggle with. Yeah me too. Uh, but I think that This gives us at least a workaround uh for using a quarterback who's objectively in a very good spot Let's talk about weather for this week. Is allen is allen your qb3 3a or 3b. I think because my homes is like They're really hard for me to pick between. Yeah I don't know Michael allen Michael allen it's tough. I'd go my homes, but it's close, right? Oh, you were in the cheese shirt. Okay. It's actually got my home's name on the back But I'm not really a surez. Okay. Cool. Uh, but it's close for you, right? We're allen's right there It's close But again the stack ability here because I could also stack my homes with darrell williams too and go that route True very true. Okay weather for this week. There are some uh, there are no like red flags There are places I would check back on though Those places are syncing natty for chiefs bangles winds are 11 miles per hour Buffalo for the bills falcons winds are 12 miles per hour Nashville for titans dolphins winds are 12 miles per hour Chicago for bears giants winds are 14 miles per hour in baltimore for the ravens and rams It is 11 mile per hour winds uh with some possible rain Light rain is possible in washington as they host the eagles winds. There are 10 miles per hour 10 mile per hour winds and rain are possible in new jersey for the jets and bucks And rain is likely in seattle for the seahawks and lions wind speeds are just nine miles per hour though So no games to me right now super concerning just wants to check back on later in the week any, um, any, uh, when concerns for cardinals cowboys If there are something has gone wrong I guess they they could keep it open. They typically don't Um, I think someone was mad at them for not opening it up a couple weeks ago But that might have been a story Anyway, let's move now to our positional plays for week number 17 brandon starting off at quarterback Who are you prioritizing this week on fandal? I'm gonna go with patch with my homes 85. I think he's a qb3 Your two loves are my one and two, but what's the fun in having so much overlap? my homes is in So this game is not in the same tier My homes is probably also not in the same tier is dak and kyler, but the bangles are 17th against the pass according to number fire Um versus non or non top or bottom eight past the offenses So like the mid tier past the offenses, which is more applicable here Um, my homes is a 0.21 passing that expected points per drop back again League average 0.09 so more than double that 0.13 over expected per play So really strong number adjusted for opponent Didn't actually finish two of those games, which might be one of the bigger concerns But um, it's in the full games 291 yards two and a half touchdowns 25 fandal points per game I'll take that. Um, and then my second love is dak for the salary being just so low at 74 There's big upside at the low salary. Um, I think that matters More this week than the last week One of the reasons I didn't play as much Joe burrow as I wanted to is there just kind of didn't need To get salary to go up. We have tons of reasons to go up at salary Um, you know at running back receiver and tight end. So I think that has a lot of appeal there Um, dax has been really good this year his success rates over 50 percent And in five games against, uh top 12 adjusted pass defenses 306 yards per game 1.8 touchdowns over expected efficiency and he's got all those receivers Yeah, dak is one of my loves too. Uh part of it's because I expect, uh tyron smith back this week In the games or with smith on the field per next gen stats. They're a 0.16 epa per drop back They're a 0.03 without him massive drop off. Uh, like you said all three receivers are healthy healthy 74 to dollars I got dak up there. I also do like kyler other game you mentioned My top two guys being potentially your two favorites. It's kyler and dak like I said before Typically the public under rosters Slight underdog quarterbacks and kyler murray is that with a being a five point dog on the road He also gets a line in the back this week with rodney hudson Uh similar splits as with the cowboys and tyron smith The epa per drop back goes from 0.16 with him to 0.01 without him also almost identical Which is wild but like centers and left tackles matter a lot the completion percentage over expectation increases 6.6 percentage points It's indoors. It's easy to stack under salary stacking candidates. I love kyler. I think that kyler and dak to me The two standouts on this slate. Let's go to running back. What do you have there? I'm gonna go with david munk armory at 72. Uh, since a week nine return He's played on 80 of the team snaps Uh 56 of the routes He he's ran a drop he's he's ran a route on 56 of their drop backs Averaging just shy of 27 adjusted opportunities per game 59 red zone rushing share 41 red zone opportunity share giants are 25th and rushing success rate allowed to running backs I'm gonna take that regardless of who the quarterback is second love sony michelle at 71 daryl hunderson's outs cam makers if Look if if cam makers returns from his his injury To overtake sony michelle this week or make sony michelle irrelevant Then I you know it it just happens, but I don't think that takes that loss very realistic I'm thinking like roughly 85 percent of snaps for michelle and in four games as I featured back He's averaging 22 carries three targets Uh, well, I should leave him some catches out there because his catch rate over expectations low Then my third love is devin singletary for now I think that we have four potential potential Value backs to go to but I don't think that I'll talk myself out of singletary either way So I feel pretty good naming him as a love here It's not a divisional game Which is kind of a plus for you know at any team at this point against the falcons Who are 28th and adjusted fandal points per carry allowed to running backs 23rd and adjusted fandal points per target allowed as well He got a lot of targets early on in that game last week The snap rate did roll back a little bit But he's played on 81 percent of the snaps ran a route on 62 percent of drop backs Over the past three games with a roll shift Even last week he was at 71 percent of the snaps had a good red zone roll Don't really want to overthink it on devin singletary. Okay, so let's finish up the value back discussion here quickly The guys in this consideration or chase edmunds if there's no james connor boston scott if there is no mild sanders devin singletary and darryll williams rank them Edmunds is in there just a reminder If there's a connor Give me the list again edmunds with no connor scott with no howard And then singletary and williams edmunds with no connor won correct Look how there's it there is the right answer. Uh Probably singletary Williams Scott yeah, uh, only flip for me is williams over singletary, but it's very close I had to like double check my sheet to see where I wanted to go I think it's very close. I go. I think I still think a little bit less of a concern that singletary loses work Sure, that's our um, okay But chase edmunds if there's no james connor is the best running back on this lake. That's what I would say there So there's no james connor chase edmunds no matter what my first love is jonathan taylor I'm assuming is assuming wens will play In the 10 games with his snaps being up taylor's at 144 yards per game if we go back to your Numbers and say 136 yards per game against tougher matchups. That's still the best in the slates by nine yards over chase edmunds without james connor for each guy in the most relevant sample if connor plays It is the best in the slate by 22 yards over sony michelle in his game as a feature back That's a lot. That's worth 10 000. So I want to get to taylor if wens plays I will still use him if there's no wens, but I will be less aggressive in doing so Getting ryan kelly and quentin nelson back. I think mark luinsky is back this week too That'll help a lot as well by second love same as yours sony michelle K makers may be back, which would be cool. I'd love to see him But I can't expect a big workload, especially when michelle is playing decently. Well 115 yards since footage per game As a lead back. He has a 44 red zone share and yeah, the the match up with the ravens rush defense is tough I kind of care a little bit less about match of erronee backs I think that michelle grades out really well. My third love is daryl williams I think that I have him above single terry for right now He's at 95 yards since scrimmage per game in the games. That's the eh He has a 33 red zone share which works in this offense and the bangles let up a ton of targets to erronee backs so Slight edge over single terry, but I do like both quite a bit I would still use scott to be clear be a rotational play though, uh versus Inching decor plays for daryl and a single terry Let's move to wide receiver. What do you have there? So I already mentioned this uh earlier in the show Could be dumb. I'm gonna go aji brown 75. I think that Look the offensive expectations aren't great. The implied team total is 22 points But that's actually not terrible on the full slate tight spread, which I never hate high a dot receiver at home We're not going to have to guess if the volume is going to be there and I tried numerous times to Study what leads to big games from receivers You can't really predict stuff that well the one Uh The one factor that is really tied to all big games is volume and that should be here. So Um and and tennessee's on 10 days arrest because they played thursday Miami played monday That I think is at least something that we can take advantage of And I kind of don't feel bad about aji brown even though The offense is not expected to be one of the best of the week Uh, we don't usually do this but give me your thoughts on aji brown I would say so other guys in the mid seven thousand or in the seven thousand range, which is broad knit Yeah, he's the best cash gameplay, right? I agree So like that justifies tournament inclusion Regardless, so I will naturally I think wound up lower on him than the field But that's not because that's just because like So many of my receiver slots will be allocated to gain stacks this week. It's not because of an aversion to him Um, but I think for a cash game, I'd like to get him in there for sure Yeah, so I think I'm going to be hiring him in tournaments Then I would expect to be even if I don't stack the other side He's one of the few one-off plays I feel good about I think the salary is It's high, but it's not so high that I would need to avoid it because he just got over half of the team's targets, so Pretty good there second love christian kirk 64 in games since zacher. It's Had his role get better and in games without Deondre hopkins. He's at 22 of the team's targets 29 of the area. It's that's eight targets per game With some leverage 1.2 downfield targets per contest and dallas 19th and passing a dot allowed so Middling there 20 30 yards per target allowed on downfield attempt So I think it's a pretty good spot for christian kirk whose salary is just frankly a little bit too low Um, and my third love is michael gallup at 58 over the past three weeks with all receivers playing relevant snaps Uh, mark cooper is has a 21 waited target share Which accounts for downfield and red zone work Waited a little bit more than just your average target cd lamb 19 gallup at 17 because he gets So much downfield and red zone work. So We're getting a pretty similar Overall workload. Of course, it's it's third. I'm not saying gallup is the best Playing a vacuum, but at that salary very good play For this week Would you use gallup in a cash game just to get low sourced exposure to that game? I think I would yeah, yeah, I'd consider it. I'd prefer to get to kirk, but like I'm Open to it I think I would if I if we get word that wenz is playing and I really feel like I gotta play jonathan taylor I agree. Okay. My first love is cd lamb in that exact same game because you can beat the cardinals via the slots he has in the three games with cooper and galloping full goes 21 overall share for cd lamb 26 deep target share His salary has come down. It is 7200 dollars. So I don't think he'll go overlooked, but like Maybe the Spread out shares in this game will keep him from popping up in optimizers. I would take that for sure So I like cd lamb here. I also love t. Higgins. He is my boy. He has always been my boy He will forever be my boy. Do not let past jim tell you any way different I've always loved t. Higgins. I've never called him a fake player Since the return t has a 25 percent overall target share 30 percent deep 24 percent in the red zone as mentioned. I do want to get to jimar chasen tournaments because I think that the roster rates will deviate towards uh Will gravitate towards higgins, but you know, I'll take it for sure My third love is christian kirk and the two games without deandre hopkins kirk is at a 24 percent overall target share 31 percent deep 15 percent in the red zone. He's largely been in the slot, which means We don't have to worry about shadow coverage. I wouldn't worry about it from trevon diggs. Anyway, he's so aggressive But 64 to christian kirk. I love that target should be good great game. Great situation. Love it all Let's go to tight end. What do you have there? So i'm going to go back to robert gankowski 67. I don't want to again Abandon groanke in a spot that should really Benefit him again. I'm just I can't really shake like the Brady groanke against the jets sort of narrative Like there's just something that that I can't stop But also there's more to it than that the jets are 30th and adjusted vandal points per target allowed to tight ends And groanke ran 77 percent of the routes last week, but had just two targets. That's eight percent of his Routes he drew a target on his full season rate is now 25 percent. So things should get better there And then my second love zacker. It's just kind of too easy I'm gonna be heavily exposed to zacker. It's I can already feel that 11 and 13 targets the past two games and again in in five games without hopkins since his role has been better He's at a team high 24 target share that's 8.8 targets per game in a shootout You don't really often get tight ends leading their teams in in target share, but we have that with urge And I think that's here to stay Yeah, I think it is too is zacker. It's also one of my tight end loves this week He has a 28 share past two games just absolutely disgusting In that time he gets deep work. So we talk about we talked about this on monday opportunity caused the position Typically there is that with low salary tight ends. I don't think that's the case with earth I think that he has the upside to hang my high salary love is Travis Kelsey because the Bengals let up a lot of production to tight ends They faced three elite tight ends darren waller george kiddle mark andrews all three of them Had 15 plus fan dual points Uh, he they let up 22 plus points to george kiddle and mark andrews And Kelsey in their three games since the buy in the three games he's played has a 27 target share He has a 29 red zone share. So Kelsey homecoming game going to since natty I think that he is worth prioritizing this week Do keep in mind is brand to mention that he did test positive for covid. So conditioning may not be fully up But I still like him quite a bit. Let's move to defense. What you got there I'm gonna go with the charges at 4 000. I'm getting jerry bosa back True lock. I know that there's a lot of rushing attempts that they'll be facing Which is not what you want to kind of have against a team that allows the run whenever you're targeting their defense, but Um, true locks just been bad takes a lot of sacks 10.1 percent sack rate Just been terrible second time around matchup. I know it's a different quarterback here But like I'll take the charges at 4 000 and feel pretty good. Yeah, I think that uh, they're pretty solid as well One that I like that doesn't really go in line with our process is the panthers I think they grade out well at 3600 dollars. They generate a lot of pressure. The saints will give it up their tackles are still not healthy Taysom's not great. Um, so I I think that like if you're looking for like a Under the radar type play that doesn't fit our typical process. I would go panthers at 3600 dollars I will get thought to the the dolphins. They get a lot of pressure the face in tannahill I know that he gets upgraded a lot with a j brown being back Uh, but still take some sacks. Uh, that helps me. I like the raiders Facing off, uh, if it's ellinger, I do like them. I like the charges as well as you mentioned So some good defense this week not great ones below 4 000 if you can get up to other teams I would try to but still We can spend down We need to for this week That is all that we have here for today Brandon any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for today You know after talking through all this I still think it comes down to figuring out how you want to stack the best games if you don't want to do that that's Kind of fine, although I don't really see the case to avoid those games because it's a 14 game slate Team you know players in those games on such big slates aren't as popular as they generally should be for the most part So I don't really feel like I have to differentiate and if I am I need to make sure that the upsides there So i'm really trying to nitpick again Rolling out teams like the chargers even though they might feel like they're a bounce back team Not matchups not really there So I think we have the luxury to be nitpicky this week, which we haven't had for quite some time Yeah, it's a nice feeling we get to stack some games be nitpicky Got some potentially good value So keep a close eye on those running backs we discussed before to see what we do with them and more for sunday Don't forget to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed You can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast on Apple on spotify on google podcasts wherever you get your podcasts you can find this and while you're there Leave us a rating and review as well Also, don't forget to get yourself into the fan dual podcast network listener league fan dual dot com slash league slash listener league fan dual dot com Slash league slash listener league to get yourself enter for that five dollar entry three entries max and there is no rake Brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at goodwill 13 g d u l a one three and i'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today We'll talk to you once again next week to get you set for the final regular season slate of 2021 this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire