 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets and this pre-FOMC webinar where Colin Zizinski, Interonto and myself, Michael Huston here in London, preview this evening's Federal Reserve rate decision. But before we get to that, I think it's also important to look at this through the prism of what the Bank of Japan did this morning because ultimately I think the biggest mover I think of these combined central bank moves could well be Dolly Yen. We've already seen a 200 point move in Dolly Yen today. I have to get a little bit of housekeeping out of the way first so I'll put the disclaimers up while I'm talking so that you can digest the disclaimers, the risk warnings and what have you. But the biggest mover today thus far we've seen is in Dolly Yen. We've seen a move up to 102.70 and we saw also a very sharp rise in the Nikkei as well. Now Japan is off tomorrow so I think the fact that Dolly Yen has since declined after the Japanese close could actually have repercussions for where the Nikkei opens early on Friday morning because ultimately once Japan gets back off its holiday we could find, we could well find that we get a little bit of an air pocket open up in Dolly Yen but in the Nikkei because a strong Yen does not help Japanese exporters and a strong Yen hurts the Nikkei. So first and foremost, I'm just going to mention because it's the Japanese holiday that also means that the effect of whatever we do get today is going to reverberate through the rest of the week because some people will have a chance to trade it today, some people tomorrow the Japanese not till Friday so it's going to be, this is going to be an ongoing reaction that can spark market swings for the next several days. And I think that really is the key component to all of this. What happens over the next few hours is going to affect market trading into the rest of this week. So let's actually dissect what the Japanese did today because ultimately despite the fact that they didn't cut rates which I have to say wasn't entirely unexpected. I think what they've done today is pretty much an admission that the negative rate policy that they brought into place in January this year was a mistake. And on that Michael, even the small cut to 0.2 negative rates that had been kicked around wouldn't really have been much of a cut anyways. No, it wouldn't but it certainly wouldn't have made the profitability or the margins of Japanese banks any better. And I think this is what this is all about. I think this tweaking of the yield curve so that there's much more of a gradient in terms of short dates, short rates and long rates is an attempt to try and restore that big margin between borrowing short and lending long. Ultimately, I think it's doomed to failure simply because certainly if you look at the spreads between the 2s and the 10s, for example, or the 5s and the 30s, they'd already widened out quite significantly already between the lows that we saw in June and where they are now and they're now coming back. And I think the market reaction is actually a direct effect of that because ultimately Japanese 10-year yields closed at minus 0.06% last night. So the Bank of Japan's efforts to basically orientate 10-year yields back around 0 is actually a fiscal tightening, not a fiscal loosening, and that is essentially why you're seeing the yen start to gain. As people started to dissect the decision, the fact of the matter is this tinkering around the edges is not going to help the Japanese economy. It could help the banks but I don't think it will change the overall economic outlook at all. And that's why I think you're seeing the ribbon dolly end. And I think also that what we saw initially with some of the early reactions was people were trying to paint this as a kind of easing or a different type. What it's really like is what the Fed tried to do a few years ago with their twist operation and that ended up not really working at all and they ended up coming back with more QAs as they needed. But in this particular case, I think and Michael will agree that between the Bank of Japan today and the ECB last week, one message we're getting is we're reaching the end of what the central banks can do in terms of easing and that negative rates are having a negative impact on the banking sector. We've seen that in Europe this year and that it's going to take some creativity and things that people are going to start looking for in other directions. I think that's the big takeaway and I think we heard an awful lot about the risks of cutting rates too low in the aftermath of the Bank of England rate decision to cut rates to 0.25%. We saw Guild Yield slump sharply and we heard pension funds complain about the fact that their pension deficits were soaring. So on the one hand you're getting long term effects where you're not going to see the effects of it for at least 10 or 15 years out. The short term effects are you're hurting bank profit margins and ultimately I think when people realise that they're going to have to save a lot more to actually have the same sort of a lifestyle that current pensioners are actually accustomed to, they're going to save more. They're not going to spend more. They're going to actually save more money. So actually negative effects, negative rates, completely overlooked, overlooked human psychology. If people are uncertain about how much money they're going to have in the future, they're not going to spend it. They're going to save it because they're going to need more for the future. They're not going to need less. And ultimately that's why I think negative rates are counterproductive and I think central banks are suddenly growing or coming to that realisation and I think that's why it's unlikely that we'll see the European central bank cut rates further either. They're already at minus 0.4. There's already significant resistance from the German banks about the effects of negative rates. And you've only got to look at Deutsche Bank's share price to understand that for all the concerns about the Italian banking sector, the biggest elephant in the room right now is Deutsche Bank. But that's going off topic ever so slightly. In terms of what the Bank of Japan have done today, it's basically taking a P-shooter to a gunfight. And ultimately I don't think that it will work. And we're seeing that. This is the Nikai. This is where the Nikai closed earlier today. And in our short-term Nikai or Japan 225 chart, as Dolly Yen has slid back, we can see that the Nikai has also slid back. Not as much because obviously it's a it's a futures derivative contract. But ultimately, I think if you compare it to what Dolly Yen has done today, it's quite plain to see here. And I've posted an awful lot of charts on Dolly Yen and on the chart forums over the course of the past few months. This cloud, Ichimuku cloud resistance has acted as a real significant barrier for the decline in Dolly Yen since those peaks in December. Now we can see where the negative rates came in at the end of January here. We got an initial pop higher in the same way that we got today. And then suddenly since then, since negative rates came in, Dolly Yen has continued to decline well below the cloud resistance here and here and once again here. So the line of least resistance for Dolly Yen at the moment, unless Auntie Janet pulls a rabbit out of the Fed hat tonight and helps out the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan would love that. They would love they would love the Fed to raise rates tonight. Unfortunately, I do not think that they will see that wish granted, which means that for Dolly Yen, the line of least resistance on this chart here is down. And we can see that indicated here in this Ichimuku Kumo cloud here, which is something that I use on most of my Yen related charts simply because it tends to be a fairly decent indicator of trend. And it is a trend indicator and it is very, very important. And for me, I think the trend will remain down while we remain below one or two fifty and one or three twenty. That is basically the cloud resistance here. It's going to take something substantive to really push us through the September highs here. If we get through the September highs, then I see there's a significant chance we can come back to one or seven. But ultimately it's going to need something substantive to really push us through one or three. And we tried we tried it this morning, didn't work. It gave up those gains and now we're back down here. So we are now a pretty serious failure this morning. It is. It's a very significant failure. On top of that, because it also failed at the one of the averages. I think it was a fifty and a one or three. And also there's a falling channel in there. And and that it also failed at that. So it was a pretty major failure at one or three this morning. And if you put it in the context of what's happened here is we've taken out the highs of this day here, this day here, here and here. So we've taken out the last four days highs. So it's ripped out all the stop losses and dolly in. And now it's lower. That's a very bad sign for sentiment. So depending on what happens tonight and let's face it, this is a daily candle chart, so it hasn't yet closed. So where we close tonight could well dictate where dolly in goes to next. And I think this is why the Fed meeting this morning is important in the context of where we go to next relative to the move in dolly end. But ultimately, I think the dollar, the risky side for the dollar is not the upside. The risky side is the downside. I think the dollar could well weaken into year end. And there is a chart that I would like to show you. And I'll go into a little bit of detail as to why this Fed meeting is important. But what I'm going to show you first is Colin wants to talk to you about the FOMC economic projections of the Federal Reserve Board members and the dot plot charts. Now, I'm very skeptical about the dot plots. Personally, I think they're about as much use as a glass eye on a frosty morning. However, policy makers do look at them. They are there for a reason. But if you looked at the dot plot charts and they're on the screen now, I'll let Colin talk you through them. Thanks, Michael. So what we're looking at for the Fed meeting today and what we've seen from the ECB and the Bank of Japan is a lot of people were expecting that they'd go mega dovish, which would make it hard for the Fed to raise rates and go the other way. They've both gone to neutral. We're near the end of this monetary easing cycle. We're way out at one end of the pendulum and we're slowly starting to come back the other way. The question is for the Fed, they're late. They're going to raise rates sometime in the next few months. The question is, when are they going to do it now? Are they going to do it in December or hold off until early next year? I personally am leaning towards December. I think that this meeting is a little bit too soon. I'm figuring about a 30-40% chance of a hike today and 60-70% chance to hold off till December. There's a number of ways that the Fed can signal a rate hike in December. You can see more descending votes in the FOMC statement. And they've got the dot plot and also the member projections for this month coming out as well, plus the press conference. So they've got a lot of tools they can use. The dot plot, what we'll probably be looking at this time is to see a center around one rate hike this year. If you don't get one today, that would forecast towards December. What's more important is as we look out to these future years, we're still looking here at people thinking that there's going to be three and four percent interest rates further out. And that's simply not true. The number of the Fed members have been increasingly coming around to the idea that the neutral rate for this cycle is probably one percent or one and a quarter percent. So not two or two and a half percent. And we're looking at two percent inflation. That would probably be what would usually consider that to be the neutral rate. This cycle, it started with Leo Brainard and a number of other Fed members have basically have increasingly agreed with her. It's more like one and one and a quarter percent. So if we get one rate hike this year to bring us up to 0.75, you're looking at one or two more in 20, 16, 27 or sorry. Just lost the audio, Colin. Colin, I've just lost your audio. It appears we lost Colin, you need to check your microphone. It's going farther out. You need to check your microphone. I just lost the audio. Yes, I am. I lost your audio for about 30 seconds. So can you just recheck your audio and then we can try and do that a little bit again. Can you hear me now? Yeah, perfect. OK, so that last that last minute we lost you. OK, so basically what I'm going to say is that the long term neutral rate has come down from about two percent to about one and a quarter percent. So even if the Fed goes hawkish short term and says we're going to raise rates sometime this year, the longer term forecast is they're probably only going to raise rates two or three times max and then they're done. It's not it's not like the 11 rate hikes of the of the previous cycle or anything like that. So that's how we're probably see a balanced report come out of the Fed this time. So what you're saying is essentially these dots will come lower and then instead of being around three and a half, three percent, there'll be around two, two and a half going out. Yes, I think we'll see the whole thing shift. Yeah, I think we'll see the whole thing shift downward. And that'll be important, too, that that even though there's not much more easing, we're not looking at a huge amount of tightening initially. Anyways, they need to do a little bit, but but it's not like previous cycles. They will also be up here as Michael has. Go ahead, Michael. They will also be updating their economic projections. And these are the projections that they came out with on the June meeting. So they're targeting two percent GDP growth for two thousand and sixteen. And that was down from two point two percent in March. Now, were you going to sort of finish up because I was just about to go off at a 10. Go on. Sure. I just wanted to mention one quick thing. So yeah, so we might see so signals here would be an increase in the core PC inflation or if they start to move back up on GDP, which I think would be tough for them to do because the OECD came out this morning and they cut their U.S. GDP growth forecast to one point four from one point eight. Now, on the other hand, we've had all kinds of various conflicting numbers out of the U.S. in terms of whether their economy has rebounded or not over the summer. So it will be interesting to see what the Fed thinks and do they use GDP or employment or inflation to to signal towards a December rate hike. And I think I think that is the key component of this. I'm going to just shut this down. You don't do you need this anymore, Colin, this particular. No, I'm good. OK. So let me actually I'll just minimize it. OK. Now, there's something that we were talking about potentially. What the Fed could signal in terms of a December rate rise. Now, there's something on the CMC markets website that actually is quite useful. And it's called the economic calendar. Now, we have a comparison function on the economic calendar. And this is the annual GDP annual growth rate for the United States. So ultimately, the question that I think everyone needs to ask themselves and I think it's particularly relevant at this time. This is the US GDP chart of annual growth. Now, since 2015, March 2015, when the GDP annual growth rate was growth rate was 3.3 percent, GDP in the US has been declining every single quarter since then. Now, they're targeting 2 percent GDP growth for 2016. The current trend growth up to the end of the last quarter, Q2 is 1.2 percent. And we'll get the final revision of that GDP number at the end of next week. Now, what we've seen thus far in terms of economic data out of the US for Q3 hasn't been great. Non-farm payrolls for July was fairly good. But August came in 151 and the ISM manufacturing and the ISM services numbers for August were very disappointing. If you actually look at the GDP numbers for 2016, actual GDP, US GDP is trending at 0.9 percent. So for the Federal Reserve to hit its 2 percent GDP target for 2016, you're going to need a significant amount of outperformance in September, October, November and December. The big question is, is that likely? And the second question is, is that likely if the Fed raises rates? Because ultimately, a higher rate acts as a titan on the US dollar and actually could push the dollar up at a time when US exporters are finding that the strength of the dollar is a problem. Another thing that I would like to quickly show you is the contrast between US GDP and UK GDP. So here we've got a situation where UK GDP is actually rising and US GDP is falling and yet we're talking about a US rate hike and a Bank of England rate cut. If that's not an oxymoron, I don't know what is it. Anyway, that's on the news and analysis section of the CMC markets website. It's a very useful feature. It's just been added and I think it's quite powerful. So let's move on to the let's move on to Euro dollar or the Fed decision tonight. So we've talked about that and we've talked about essentially what the Fed is likely to do tonight if in the event they decide to keep rates unchanged. Because I think the big outlier here is the presidential election, which is now 48 days away, 48 days away. And Clinton and Trump are pretty, pretty neck and neck in the polls. And while you'd like to think that the US voters wouldn't vote for Donald Trump, a lot of people thought that the UK wouldn't vote for Brexit. So I don't think there's anything, anything, any such thing as a done deal here. The problem at the moment, I think for the US voters, is the fact that Donald Trump is pretty unappealing. But Hillary Clinton isn't is only only slightly less, only slightly less unappealing. And I think there's a lot of Americans who think she should be in jail. So yeah. Yeah. And unfortunately, that highlights the polarities. I think not only I think in the US economy, but pretty much highlights the splits, the polarizations, the populism that we're seeing here in the UK, what we're seeing in Europe. As a result, I think of, I think some part of it is due to political incompetence, but an awful lot of it is also down to central bank monetary policy, which is helping basically boost the haves to the exclusion of the have nots. And I agree. You know, that's going to be a big problem. Yeah. And it's important because I think in a lot of ways, this Fed decision is actually quite could be taken as become politically charged, whether they mean it to or not, because historically the Fed tries to stay away from politics and basically right away from it. But you had actually recently, Donald Trump has been accusing the Fed of keeping the interest rates artificially low to help the Democrats, which is quite interesting. The and so if they do take it, if they do hold today, you could see more comments out of out of Trump. Of course, also if you if you keep rates low and send the signal, well, gee, the US economy is still too weak for the that we can't raise interest rates, that they could then take that as an example of America is broken and we need to fix it. Whereas actually a rate hike could be seen as favoring the Democrats on the basis that you can say, yeah, the economy is doing great. It's fantastic. We're raising rates anyways. And Democrats economic policies can or Clinton can say and Obama can say, well, our economic policies are working. So it's actually even regardless of what they do, somebody is going to take a political read off of this today. And so they're actually trading on some fairly thin ice here, even as it is and even as though normally you'd want to just push it off till after the election and stay out of the whole thing. I think it doesn't matter what they do. So it doesn't matter if you do something and I'm getting caught up in it. Anyways, yeah, I think that's the problem. They're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. Ultimately, I think in the wake of Jackson Hole, I think there had been an expectation that the Fed would raise today. Unfortunately, the economic data hasn't been playing ball. And unfortunately, I think there's an element of Fed credibility here because at the beginning of this year, we were talking about the prospect of four rate rises. Now, you know that I've been very, very skeptical that we'd probably see even half that Colin. And at the moment, it looks to my mind as if that could well be the case. But ultimately, the Fed will be the Fed is in a no in situation here. If they raise rates, they invite political criticism. If they leave well alone, they invite political criticism. But ultimately, I think what I think is important amongst above everything else is what the price action is telling you. And the price action is telling me is the dollar is likely to remain under pressure. And if the dollar is likely to remain under pressure, you then you then extrapolate that as to how that will how that will unfold. And the only way that I can see that unfolding is if the Fed is dovish in its statement, if it does raise rates, or if it puts off a rate rise and tries to keep December on the table. The problem with keeping December on the table is if Donald Trump gets in, there's no way they're raising rates in December. No way. Because I think the markets will take fright if Donald Trump wins the presidential election. And that could cause that even though he would even though he would be pushing the Fed to raise rates, I think you're right. I think you'd see the the market react negatively to it. And they haven't yet, right? We've seen that the markets have been quite complacent about this about the prospects of Trump winning election throughout this year. And and the reality is otherwise that a lot of the people out there also in the media and the markets would be thinking that Hillary Clinton would be winning by 20 points by now when she's not, which means it's a lot closer election. This is going a lot more like the Brexit campaign did than and and the markets could be in for a big surprise. Yeah. So I mean, I think to summarise what we expect from today's Fed meeting is that Janet Yellen generally tends to be a fairly cautious central banker. I think unless she's unless she's steamrolled into a rate hike by her more hawkish colleagues, then I think her caution, her propensity for caution will outweigh any hawkish concerns that the rest of the committee may have. You may see some dissent on the committee. Mester has already, I think, dissented. Is it center? Is it master or George? It's one of the two. George dissented and I wouldn't be surprised if Mester does as well. Yeah. So you the one that'll be interesting and to me is that and you're absolutely right. Yellen is very cautious and and I suspect Fisher will probably be pushing for a rate hike. So the question is so the one I think it's going to come down to is probably Dudley and because he was the one in August that tripped everybody over because he's been dovaged for most of the year and he was the one that kind of started to switch sides in August. And the question is, would he be that? Will he push it through or will the will the nutricide win it? Will he get, say, offset by brain or or something like that? I think I think don't underestimate Leo Brainard. I think she carries more cloud than most people think. A lot of people haven't heard of her, but she's I think she is well regarded. And I think Yellen listens to her probably more than she does Fisher. That that being said, you're right about that. Let's look at the charts. The other one is Williamson. He was starting to lean on. She leans listens to Williams, I think. Yeah, but he's he's not he's not a voting member. So he's not a voter this year. Yeah. So let's let's look at the charts because one thing I did know. So I'm going to look at Cable in a minute because I find that very interesting because we're approaching a very key support on sterling dollar on the four hour chart, linking the lows from July and we're currently just above that. And I think while we hold above that, I think sterling strength could well outweigh any dollar strength there. But what has been particularly interesting is that gold. What's happened with gold today? Now, we've been trading sideways in a slightly downward channel since we peaked in July. But what we've seen today, I found actually very interesting indeed because we got an initial sell off lower in the wake of the Bank of Japan rate decision. And I can't really account as to why that happened. I'm looking at a 10 minute chart here. But since then, we've gone full reverse and we've gone full reverse all the way back up to one thousand three hundred and thirty dollars an ounce. And one thing that, despite all the dovishness from central bankers and all the dovishness, you know, about easier monetary policy, central banks have been buying gold steadily all of this year. And actually, if you look at what gold has done this year, it's actually done fairly well. It's up around about 25 percent. And since July, it's been trading sideways, albeit in a very gradual downtrend, but with very, very solid support all the way through here at thirteen hundred. And I think that for me is key. I think if gold holds above thirteen hundred, then the dollar is unlikely to strengthen that much. And that for me suggests that we could well see dollar weakness and currency strength against it. We're seeing it in dolly and already in terms of what we saw this morning. We are now seeing it in gold. And that suggests to me that for all the bullishness about the dollar, I think the line of least resistance is that we could well see more dollar weakness over the course of the rest of the year. And similar sort of story. And also, Michael, go on. Oh, sorry. Can I just add even here with the dollar index around 95, 96, the markets are already pricing in one or two rate hikes this year. Even if we do have the Fed lean towards a short term rate hike, that's probably not going to push the dollar up very far. That's very true. Actually, I always said that go on. I think at 96, you're still pricing in two hikes this year or two hikes within, say, the next 12 months. OK, what you talk away because I'm just about to bring up a dollar index chart because I actually think that this dollar index chart speaks volumes as to what's been happening. Just going to bring my Bloomberg across. Absolutely. So what we've seen with the US dollar over the course of this year is it has been weakening. But you'll recall back at the beginning of the year, it was at par at 100. And that was up when people were thinking there were going to be four rate hikes in 2016. And that obviously hasn't happened. And my feeling has been that if you're looking out over the course of a year at 90 year pricing in zero, 92 and 92, 93 year pricing in one, 95 is two, 97 is three, and 100 is four. So in this 94 to 96 area, you're likely pricing in to what I was I was using up until recently, say, two rate hikes this year. I think it's two rate hikes over the next 12 months. The interesting thing is if the Fed did decide to raise rates today, they actually should have raised rates back in June. And I think everybody now will pretty much admit that they should have, but they didn't know what was going to happen with the Brexit vote. And more importantly, what it was going to mean for the markets and the world economy. Well, the impact turned out to be quite shallow and quite brief. So it ended up that the Fed didn't have to worry about it. But who knew that at the time? So if you get a rate today, it's really the catch up from June more than than they actually need one from now. If you're looking at a program of once every six months, if they hold off till December, then maybe you'll get another one in June of 2017. You're probably looking at six months. I think that program would be probably six months between rate hikes and just that they've missed one now. So and the other question is if they do raise rates today, then maybe the next one comes in March, six months from now. Indeed. And also looking at this dollar index chart, you can see that actually from where we were, let's say in the beginning of August to where we are now, we've already seen a significant tightening effect in terms of the US dollar. We're at the highest levels that we've been at for around about a month now. And actually, we've only ever been higher very initially at the beginning of August. And obviously, these peaks here in July, just seen Croylet crude oil crude oil inventories fell 6.2 million barrels. That's a big, big fall. So I think you'll see oil spikes sharply on that. We're expecting a build of 2.6. So, again, that's going to see a significant oil. You've got a big spike for crude oil. It's up 60 cents in the last two minutes from 44.30 to 44.90. And so we'll probably see oil rolling up. We're here on this news because it is a big positive surprise. Yeah, there we go. So if I do the daily chart there, you've also got to put it in the context of also where we've been over the course of the past few days and weeks and we are. We were just coming off two week lows. So you would think you would think that basically there's an awful lot of short positions out there in terms of where we've been to and where we were at the beginning of September. So it looks like we could see a significant rebound. But if you look at where crude's what crude's done over the course of the past few days and weeks, there's plenty of scope for us to go higher and keep the downtrend that's been in place since the June peaks. Well intact. So so certainly, I think from the prospect of crude oil, probably going to see a little bit of a spike higher, doesn't change the overriding demand picture, supply and demand dynamics of crude oil. We've seen we've seen a decent rebound, certainly got scope to potentially go a little bit higher, maybe come back to around about $48 a barrel, which is around these sorts of levels here. Going slightly off topic there for a minute. And I've lost Colin. I think I think he's I think he's had too much Mike trouble for his own for his own good. Always back now. I wonder where you've gone. Sorry about that. That's all right. I just suddenly saw the Red Cross come up. So so basically crude. I was just saying crude oil inventories. We've just been trading off two week lows. So I think there's a certain element of a short covering going on there. I would agree. And there was a little bit of pre-buying ahead of that. Anyway, after after the inventory data that we saw out of the API yesterday, which came in with a surprise surprise, was it a surprise draw as well? Yes, it was a surprise drawdown, and it was certainly bigger than than people were thinking. And on top of that, now, we've got this big conference in Algeria this weekend with all kinds of rumors back and forth of could Russia and OPEC agree to a one year deal? Do they even need to come up with a deal? Will they even still be speaking to each other at the end of the meeting? And if they do come up with a deal, will they just cheat on it anyways? There's possibility of an emergency OPEC meeting next week if they actually make any progress, which remains to be seen. But certainly this has this has put some fundamental support in underneath the oil price now heading into the weekend. And we're going to have all this speculation around have all the speculation around what happens at this week's conference. And also likely have the pot boiling right in the next week. Absolutely. And I think if you also look at this WTI chart that I've got here, it's been quite it's been quite noticeable that we've bounded off bounced off a very significant support level on the WTI contract. And it's always a very, very good idea to look at the two and how they correlate Brent and WTI. I always tend to do that just so that I know that if we do see a break, if it's confirmed on the other chart and we could see that it wasn't in the case of Brent or in the case of WTI, we actually bounce pretty much to the to the to the dollar to the cent of this support level here around about forty two dollars and forty cents. So that's a key level there. Why is it key? Because ultimately it acted as support there. It acts as a little bit of resistance through here and support there. And it also coincides with this nice little trend line from the February lows here. So now we've got three touches in the uptrend on crude oil from the lows in February. So very much the trend is your friend here, very strong support here. If we do break through forty two forty, then I think you could see a very sharp ratchet down again, technical analysis, the chart, the prices are telling you what the fundamentals maybe are not telling you. And I think in that context, it's very, very important that you look at the charts and then try and formulate an opinion based on what you think the charts are going to do. Now, let's have a quick look at US markets, because I think US markets are going to be very, very driven by what the Fed does later today. And certainly, I think if you look at the S&P 500, you can see we've seen an awful lot of choppiness in recent days. We've had pretty much all over the summer. It was a bit like watching paint dry, very, very, very, very small ranges, very, very tight ranges, a bit of sideways consolidation. We had a very sharp down move a couple of weeks ago. And then it was followed by a very quick, sharp up move. But what we do appear to be seeing here is resistance at twenty one sixty. Why have I chosen that? It's quite simple. If we look at a line through these lows here, we can sort of see straight away that there is a significant area of what I would call confluential support. Now, that may seem a bit of a flowery way of basically saying, but if you look at the number of times the market has bounced off twenty one sixty over the course of the last three months, we can see that it is a very significantly important pivotal area in terms of support and resistance. And I think that's why it's important that you bear it in mind if we get a surprise from the Fed today. Also on the downside, twenty one thirty five decent support, twenty one sixty decent resistance. Those are your key levels for the S&P 500 in the event of a surprise from the Fed later today. Let's extrapolate those out onto the Dow Jones, the US thirty. Slightly more difficult to really draw any conclusions on that, because it's not immediately apparent where the support and resistance levels are. But at first glance, it's a fairly similar chart in terms of where the support and resistance levels are. But ultimately, it's probably a little bit less reliable, certainly in terms of the fact that the Dow is so heavily weighted towards companies like Apple and Exxon. Therefore, a move in one of those share prices is likely to skew it quite significantly to the detriment of all the others. So you look at the Dow, it does still look a little bit soggy. And what I would hope to see, I think, on the Dow is for a recovery through these these peaks here that we've seen over the course of the past three or four days of 18, 260, 18,260 and support around about 18,000. Colin, I know you wanted to cover the RBNZ before we sign this off. So do you want to go ahead and do that? Sure, absolutely. So three hours after the Fed meeting, we get this month's meetings decision from the RBNZ. The Street is expecting them to hold interest rates at 2 percent. They cut a quarter point at their last meeting down from 2.25 percent. Since then, New Zealand economic data has been mixed. Australia economic data has been mixed. We look a lot at what the RBNZ does relative to what the RBA does. So the RBA held their interest rates steady at their last meeting, and they were pretty neutral in their statements. So all in, it looks as though the Kiwis are going to keep their interest rates steady this time as well. Now, their dollar has picked up a bit in the last few weeks as US dollar has weakened. So they do sometimes try to talk their dollar down. You may see them have another go at that. I'd be more concerned about that if it was up closer to 75. It's just above 70 and 73. But basically Kiwi dollar has been tracking higher into this meeting. The Street is expecting them to remain neutral. And that's pretty much where we're at with that. But it does tend to trade quite a bit around the decision. So the decision comes out at 5 p.m. Eastern time, that's 10 p.m. in London and New Zealand dollar, US dollar does tend to be active around these around these developments. On that note, we might as well have a quick look at the Aussie dollar and look at where we are with respect to that. And that's certainly a very interesting chart on the Aussie. If I change that to a weekly chart, we can see how very important that up a line on the Australian dollar is. This is on a weekly chart, the 2013 peaks at the moment has managed to contain the recent rebounds in the Australian dollar. So we can see straight away that we've got a significant area of resistance coming through between 76.5 and 77. So I think if we get a decent, if we get a particularly dovish Fed or a particularly dovish outcome, I think you could see or the Australian dollar push higher quite significantly. And that will give the RBA a significant headache because the last thing they want is a stronger Aussie dollar. And you could well see a further rate cap from the RBA by the end of the year. OK, what I'm going to do is I think that's reasonable. And the dollars are important that way, both the Aussie and the Kiwi dollar, they're both quite concerned about them going up too much too quickly. OK, so on that note, ladies and gentlemen, what I'm going to do if anyone has any questions about any of the currency pairs or anything that we haven't covered, I'd like to throw it open to you now. So if you want to ask any questions here by basically replying to this message that I've just about to send out. Otherwise, Colin and I will wrap this up and wish you all the best in trading in and around tonight's Fed rate decision. Yeah, there's been a lot of uncertainty heading into this. So there's a good chance that people are going to be surprised in regardless of what happens. We'll probably see quite a bit of market action around the around the decision. And we can see it in phases too often. We'll get an initial wave of reaction on the on liquidity. Was it is it good for a liquidity hawkish or dovish? And then later on, you start to see other moves based on what does it mean for the economy and for corporate earnings. So we can see quite a bit of trading action and swings in both directions off of today's developments. Indeed, we indeed we certainly will. And we also have to remember that obviously Europe will have gone home, London will have gone home. So it'll probably be quite thin and it will be quite choppy. So please be careful out there. Anyway, thanks very much for your thanks very much for listening. I'm going to wind this up now, wrap it up and then post it on YouTube within the next couple of hours. Thanks very much for listening. Oh, question on Aussie dollar. Given the fact that many analysts aren't expecting a rate hike in moderate hawkish tone, will Aussie dollar rally? Well, again, I think there's a decent chance of that. But I think it really depends if they do hold, then I think they will have to try and at least keep the option of a rate rise on the table. But at the same time, they don't want the dollar to rally too sharply. So Mrs. Yellen has got a significant balancing act to adopt. And I think it will be interesting to see how she fends off some of the questions in the press conference. Vis-a-V, the fact that earlier this summer, she said that she expected to see rates go up by the end of the summer. We're now at the end of the summer and we still yet to see a rate hike. I think I said rate cut there, I meant rate hike. Hopefully that answers your question. If you have any other questions and you want to contact Colin on myself, you can find us on Twitter. I'm at mhuisan underscore CMC. Colin is at C. Szynski underscore CMC. Otherwise, thanks very much for listening. And just be careful out there, don't lose any money. Thanks, Michael, and thanks, everyone. Have a great day trading. Cheers, Colin.