 There you go, we're live. Oh, that's it. Yeah, it actually says like everyone's, the banner came up. Hi everyone, my name is Jamie Higginbotham. I don't know if you actually remember me. It has been a hot minute since I've been on the show. I am coming to you live from Vandenberg Space Force Base and I apologize in advance for my terrible, terrible bandwidth. We're trying, you know, before we get into the news, which is absolutely, at least for me, the most exciting thing, Blue Origin going to the moon. I do want to say, and we'll talk about this at the end of the show, but we're doing out new technology on the show and I guarantee you some of it's going to fail today, right? Like that's just how this is going to work. But we're doing that because we're losing station 204. Not by my hand. It's going away because it's not going to be renewed. So we'll talk about that later in the show because I really want to get into Blue Moon really quickly. Yeah, Blue Moon, it'd be Blue Moon, right? Is that that? Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely. Who arguably in this room is most excited about Blue Origin going to the moon? Oh, Dolly, like, is... Wait, am I the most excited one in the room? I'm excited, too. So, I mean... I'm excited. I'm impartial. I don't know. Am I meant to be excited? I'm not not excited, but I'm also, like, not jumping for joy excited, which is kind of my mood generally. This is pretty much as excited as I get, so... That's fair. That's fair. That is your mood. That is your mood. Jared, what's your excitement level? Like, one to ten, where are you at? I'd stand at, like, a seven, seven and a half. Like, I'm just like, they're fine. I'm at a ten. This is humanity going back to the moon one way or another, right? Like, having all of our eggs in one basket, and don't get me wrong, I'm part of the big basket, right? So, like... I want, I want... But, like, why choose one? It's why pick A or B when you can have both, right? And so, I'm really, really excited about our prospects of actually being able to get to the moon and having a backup plan for being able to get there. Now, it's interesting that they chose Blue Origin. So, actually, who knows about the story? I feel like we haven't described the story at all yet. Like, Dolly, you want to tell everyone what's going on? Sure, sure. I'll be happy to talk about it. There was an award of just one contract when a lot of people expected there to be two, and that contract went to SpaceX. And much, much drama about all of that, and now they have gone back and grabbed a second provider, which provides all those lovely benefits of the redundancy, the improving our risk profile about being able to provide something excellent. And I think competition of two companies working toward a common goal actually motivates even better with that whole competition vibe, friendly competition both trying to get to the same thing. That's excellent. So, Blue Origin, I mean, personally in my mind, obviously the second choice, though I really like some of the things about that low slung lander, the math of it didn't work out for me. So, I'm preferring the Blue Origin. The math only in the sense of it seemed like they had, I don't know, a payload buffer. They needed to adjust their masses a bit and they were pushing too close. I'm sorry, on which one? On the SpaceX one or on the Blue? No, no, this is one of the third ones. It's the low slung one. The Dynetics one? Dynetics, it's the one that drops tanks and it's low slung and it steps off and out to the ground, which is lovely. And, you know, I'm not actually bothered by ladders. Ladders and safety cables? If I've gone all the way to the moon, a 10-meter ladder doesn't scare me anymore. So, I'm delighted that we have both of those on the table. And the reason I'm only at a six is because it's so far off. I see so many steps between here and there that could change it. So, I'm being all stoic and reserved. But we're taking the steps. Oh, yeah, we're doing the steps. I do want to bring up a comment from the chatroom really quick, if I may, and that it's from TSM Space. And I think this is a really good point as well because I said it's, you know, all of the, you know, TSM says it's not about better chances. It's also about perspective volume of travel to the moon. I actually think it's both, right? Because by doubling your chances, you at least have some volume to the moon. But if both of them succeed, now you've got double volume to the moon. So, ideally, there is a world in which, I mean, you could. Why not? No, you don't get double volume. Why not? Because there's a 10-to-1 difference in the volume of the two vehicles. So, adding the second one only adds 10% per flight. Yeah, okay. It all depends on the number of flights as well. Sure, sure. So, right? I mean, they can choose to fly more. I mean, they probably won't. You're right. I mean, in terms of the landed map, absolutely, I agree. It's hard to argue with a SpaceX Cadence at this point. I say from my hotel room in Vandenberg. A little bit of West Coast bias there, I think. Ryan, why are you not at a 10? How am I the only one that's at a 10? I don't understand. Why are you not at a 10? And by the way, while you're answering in the chat room, what are you guys at from 1 to 10? Let me know in why. I don't know, really. My... Hmm. I don't know how to word this, really. It's like, of course, I'm excited that there's another... there's going to be another lander, but... I don't know, really. I'm just not up there. Maybe it's because I've spent the last six hours trying to render a video. I don't know. I'm just not figured it. I'm just not figured it. Ryan, this is your generation, right? I know. The Artemis generation is your generation. I'm not excited. I'm just... I don't know. Maybe I spent all my hype on the Starship H, I guess. Maybe. I don't know. Interesting side comment from Eduardo. Eduardo, I believe, volume. We need to get rid of the Space Launch System to get real advantage of the volume. Why? See, this is... Not happening. For yet. Jared, I agree. And why do you think it's not happening? There's this really cool thing here in the United States called Congress, and they really like money in their districts. So that's not happening. So if they lose that, they will lose votes, and they don't want that to happen. So, you know, it's, of course, engineering by lawyers. So, no, it ain't happening. So we do joke constantly that it's the Senate Launch System, right? Okay, let's put a pin in that, because we're going to go down a very deep rabbit hole when it comes to the Space Launch System. And, Jared, actually, since you were talking, I'm curious all about you. Why are you not 10 out of 10 on this system? Like, Ryan is never 10 out of 10 on anything. He is 5 out of 5. Well, he loves it or hates it. He's always 5 out of 5. Straight times the middle. He'll be 5.1 if he's really excited, or 4.9 if he hates it, right? I just thought that was a pretty interesting. Yeah, yeah, 1 out of 10, Jared goes from bandana to orange smelling, right? That's your scale. So, like, exactly. If I were to ask you 1 out of 10, you'd be like, pineapple. So, why are you not 10 out of 10? Okay, so obviously I feel like blue has a lot to prove with some of their development and things. You look at the BE4 engine, and you see that some of the issues they've been having with that, and some of these are, like, very much issues where you look at it, and you go, come on, guys, don't you understand the fundamentals of how physics works? Wait, wait, wait, wait. Hang on, where are they measuring the fundamentals? Very, very tough for me to look at it that way. And I have to sort of take my expectations, and I don't want delusions of grandeur to take over with things like this. This is not, you know, it's not the super-fast and break-stuff attitude that we see from SpaceX. It's very much slow and steady from Blue Origin, and in some cases slower and steadier. But, of course, that's always debatable, so whether that's going to pay off in the long run or move fast to break stuff is. So, in the group's opinion, I think everyone here tends to agree, I mean, Blue started before SpaceX, right? Yeah. I will also point out that from my perspective, Blue's concept seems a lot more complicated and convoluted than the Starship HLS, so that may have something to do with my kind of opinion on it, because for the Starship HLS, yes, it requires refueling, yes, it's reusable, but it's one system. You've got Starship tankers, Starship lander. It's all one thing, but you've got, at least how I understood the announcement, I may be wrong, but you've got the Blue lander, you've got the Blue tanker, you've got the gateway integrate, it seems like there's many different things, and you've also got the New Glenn, which is the launch vehicle. Starship is the launch vehicle, it is the tanker, it is the lander. Blue's concept seems to have many different things tying together with collaborations with Lockheed and whatnot, so that's kind of my perspective of it. A while ago, he has entered the room, exactly. If I can temper expectations for a moment, how many times has Blue Origin launched total, and how many times has SpaceX launched this year? Like 15, I think, maybe. I'll get the actual number. It does. I've long thought, and I may be, it feels like, and maybe I'm crazy, it feels like when Blue does finally hit that mark, they're going to be able to actually just start running with speed. And it's going to take a minute to get there. It's not like they're going to launch once, and then suddenly they launch a week later. That's not how this works. It's going to be kind of that hockey stick, maybe. There's a lot of work between prototype and ramp and rate. Says someone who has experienced that firsthand. Ha, Dada. But I mean, that's a long road to travel in a short period of time. And that's going to be very, very difficult to do that well. Not to say that they can't do it. I'm just saying it's going to be difficult. And SpaceX has done this, and Blue Origin is going to have to do this much quicker to try to catch up or keep up. But it's only impossible until it isn't, right? And like Jared, I remember, you've said for years, no bucks, no buck Rogers. Well, guess who has all the bucks? Elon. Guess who has other? Elon and Jeff. If there's two companies that have the bucks, it's those two. Dolly, you've been quiet for a moment. In your opinion, when A, do you think Blue Origin is going to accomplish the goal of getting to the moon? I have a 40% confidence that they will accomplish it within the time window that will be satisfactory for the project. Ooh, a lot of qualifiers. What is the time window that would be satisfactory to the project? In the same sense that I think right now, Boeing has failed to meet that standard or might if they don't actually get off the pad with crew in the next 12 months in that they will have essentially missed all of the window that we want a commercial crew to cover, at least in the first issue, and like that. If Blue Origin does something like that where we get all these landings done on the moon and we're now looking at the second phase and finally Blue Origin is testing the unmanned, I would consider that kind of a failure mode to be not in my 40%. So, I have about a 40% confidence that they will be able to get crew on the moon within that convenient window of still while SpaceX is doing it for the first phase. Obviously, that's extremely vague. No, I understand, but like a follow-up question of that because I think if I were to regurgitate your premise and I'm not, like, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, but to reword it to make sure I understand it. You're basically saying there's a threshold of time that they need to be able to execute on the program before they've kind of like failed and no one cares anymore. Is that a... Yeah, yeah. Well, they might actually, you know, succeed by contract but not by satisfaction. Hit the letter of the law and miss the spirit of it. And I think that's only just because I have a low confidence in there being willing to do what it takes to, I don't mean hit a deadline, something like a very loose deadline. They can't hit a deadline. No one in aerospace for the record can hit a deadline. Right, right, right. Everyone does Elon travel, but like name one rock. Yeah. Yeah, deadline and Elon time, you know, sure. All of aerospace works on Elon time. Everyone gives Elon a hard time, but like, is Vulcan flying? Last I checked, no. First new plan. But he's close. He's close. Is it? Wow. Do we end with a video of that second stage again? The second stage? The second stage for Vulcan. Yeah. They wet dressed it. They blew it up. Yeah, they boom. Yeah, but they were the one that's actually going to fly. They wet dressed it. Sure. Sure. Okay. So let me push back on your point ever so slightly. Yes, please. Going back a little bit, which is, I think I agree in that, you know, you've got a certain amount of time before people just kind of like lose interest, right? But we also have very short memories. And so I think let's use, I think you used, or someone used Starliner as an example, when it does fly, isn't that going to be cool and awesome because it's flying now? It's going to be the thing that's now, right? And so like, yeah, there will be a little bit of talk about how late it is, but it's still going to be the thing that's now. It's going to be the thing that's sending humans to space right now. And so even though at this moment in time, it feels like they've kind of failed because they are woefully late. Once they are flying humans, will we still feel that way? Or will our collective consciousness shift to the excitement of the moment? Hmm. I guess I'm not as down on bowing or blue origin on this as would be projected. Like, I don't care at all. No, I will be very excited when it happens. And I am extremely delighted when that happens. And I would not consider bowing or blue origin to have failed overall if they simply late for my preferences. Fine. I think Lupi mentioned my point better than I ever could have. And he said, they said, where's all the SLS haters after November 16th, 2022? Right now, there certainly are some, but follow-up comment. They stopped having as loud of a voice, that's for sure, right? Because it was cool. As aerospace nerds, can we honestly sit here and pretend like SLS wasn't freaking awesome? It was amazing. I love it. Yeah. It was awesome. It syncs up with Freebird perfectly. Does it? Yeah, you just got to just send it to Freebird, and it does perfect. Yeah, Bennett brings up, like, yeah, we all went straight from meh to yay when SLS rolled out. And I remember just watching it, and then the hurricane hit, and remember that? And we were like, oh, it's going to happen. Right? It was exciting. And like those, the decades of being like, well, I say decades, it felt like decades. You know, the, you know, talk about, talk about Elon's mind. I go, John's about to start writing about national launch system. Ready, go. Jared, here's the baton. You have the floor. Go. Ready, go. Yeah. Is it kind of like I'm going to, you know, the first flight of New Glenn, I'm going to be like, wow, that new shepherd upper stage is really awesome, you know, with it there. So. All right. I'm excited for, uh, Jared, I forgot, forgive me. Did we get to your why you're not 10 out of 10? Or did I divert? I believe you asked me. So, but don't, don't think that I'm not excited about this. My gosh, just like, you know, I'm, I'm still excited about it. It's just, I may not be like super excited about it because the timelines just, I don't feel like the personally the timelines are going to be moving like they should. That still doesn't mean I'm not going to be excited about it when it actually, or when, when we're on the cusp and it's finally happening. I mean, once Starliner made it to the International Space Station, I was just absolutely ecstatic about the fact that they took a photo with a Crew Dragon and Starliner in the same frame. Like that was to me probably one of my favorite photos, uh, I could think of in recent memory from space was that there, there were the two commercial Crew vehicles right there. And yeah, one took a little bit longer than the other, but I'm much rather interested in program getting it right than trying to speed ahead and risking losing a vehicle or losing a Crew. So if you can get it right, do it. And if you don't get it right, then you need to do everything you can to get it right again. Dada, I never got your reaction. Add yourself back into the scene. I want to know, because I can see when he's added in, I want to know one to 10, what's your excitement level for Blue Moon? I haven't processed this yet. So I, I didn't, I heard that there's news. I haven't processed the news yet. I'm working on job applications. You all can forgive me. But I'm more interested in understanding the technology before I apply my excitement. And call me the, call me an engineer or whatever. Like the concept, cool. Yay. Okay. We're going in, going, going to the moon. And they've got concepts, but what, what's the hardware look like? What does the infrastructure look like? And that's what, that's the, the things that I need to understand before I get excited. Dada, did you just say, yeah, cool, we're going to the moon, like it's no big. Yeah. Did you just nonchalantly be like, yeah, cool, whatever. It's fine. Because, because we've been doing this since the seventies. We've, we've had, we've had concepts. We've had high fantastic art. We've got, we've employed Ralph McQuarrie for all sorts of fantastic pictures and portraits. Like, But how many times has Bill Nelson got in front of a podium and like actually announced it? When are we going? Where's the hardware? Well, some of it. Shuttle up. Some of it blew up in Brownsville not that long ago. And like, this is one of my gripes with blue is that like, I don't know. Right. Like no one knows anything about blue. They take a very old school mentality to media and getting out there and getting humanity excited. And for a show that we build that's all about getting humanity excited. Like that's, that is directly opposed to our mission statement, right? I will blatantly plug the latest NSF flyover though, because they did leave the doors open on the factory, which is nice to see. So we saw some tanks. That was it. But we saw some tanks. Also, by the way, Ryan, you're doing a fantastic job over there. I just want to give you some kudos. Like, Thanks. Your work has been absolutely magic over there. That's it. That's all the more kudos I'm going to give you. Now you're dead to me. All right. All right then. This long lead thing, I think is part of part of the problem that I have at least with getting excited about it. I can get excited about it. And then what I'm getting excited about isn't what's actually going to happen. So like, like some, like seeing a fantastic looking concept car that your favorite car manufacturer produced for the Tokyo auto show. And you're like, oh man, I want that car. And what comes out looks like a old school Toyota Prius. Like, So Molly, Molly Mars gal in the chat says people who have gotten tours of blue say it's amazing and that there's hardware, but they can't say anything at all. It's so frustrating. I'm in this aerospace. Yeah. And you know, and I haven't really seen, I haven't had a tour of blue for obvious reasons. Why not JV? Just come on in. Clashing hair color. Take a camera. I want to see everyone on the start. If you can change your hair color for a month, I'll let you in. It's fine. It's fine. I'm just on my phone. I'm just on my phone. Just don't wear a red one. Just scrolling through. Anyhow, I lost my entire point. Oh, my point was I haven't seen any hardware, but I do know some of the engineers that work over at blue, and they are freakishly good. Like, and this is why I'm so surprised that they haven't made orbit yet, right? Because like, I know some of the people working on those projects, and it's insane how smart these people are, right? I wonder if, actually, let's keep talking about blue. I didn't mean to go on for this long, but like, we're going to keep going. I wonder, I wonder if they just have access to too many resources, right? When you don't have the pressure of time and money, then are you really ever forced to deliver? I wonder, I wonder if like, removing some of those resources would actually force them to do better. Dolly, I'll start like, I'll go around like, what are your thoughts? You've got the beard, rubbing moment, you're contemplating, what are your thoughts on blue? I learned from not just you and your boss, but several other people that are important leadership examples in my life that reducing the number of people on a project often speeds it up, because if you can find the people that are taking the most communications load and getting down to the core that are making it run, they can run faster without the other ones behind them. That's one of the ways it works, and that's very much in line with, let's go with more lean and see if those lean group can go here and let these other people find their best group and get parallel, and anyway, lots of ways to allow people to work their best, and as you say, rich uncle kind of resource level goes against that. No, there was someone, and forgive me, so I will say in the new system, I do, and I've been giving Cole a hard time, but I do want to say I do miss the old chat room. I think we all do, because we can queue things up and we can see them right there and then we can just push into the air, but that adds a layer of complexity that we are just not ready to go with right now. But I had a point. Anyhow, someone had basically said, I'm not sure isn't blue's thing that they're not getting enough funding, which brings up a, I don't actually know, like I haven't had my opportunity to walk around blue on my phone checking my text messages, I'm just texting. Oh, there we go, thank you, I doubt it. Bennett Elder, I thought limited funds was long the story from blue. So the, it's not, I don't think it's limited funds, right? Jeff Bezos, my understanding is would sell like billions of dollars worth of stock every year in order to just fund blue out of his own pocket. But when it comes to aerospace, let's just say a billion dollars, that doesn't actually go that far. So maybe it's a case of they've got a billion dollars, but they've bitten off more than they can chew too many projects. I will say that the NASA contract like got awarded today is worth just shy of three and a half billion and they're fronting 50% of the development costs. So let's say that blue moon development from this point onwards to the the landing or whatnot is going to be roughly seven, eight-ish billion kind of roughly is what we're assuming based on what blue and NASA have said. So that's kind of the ballpark that we're playing with here. And that's assuming they stay on budget, right? Yeah. I mean, name an aerospace program that stayed on budget. That isn't SpaceX. If you do get a chance to get into blue, your phone is awesome. Spherical, please, if you can manage. Why is the lens on your phone so large and why isn't there a screen? Jared, how about you? What do you think is holding blue back from actually executing? Like they've been around longer than SpaceX. They have billions of dollars. Why haven't they made orbit? I don't think anything is holding blue back. I think that they just don't care about other people's timeline. They're running their own race in their mind and they don't see themselves as competitors at other people. They see themselves as sort of, I don't want to say like it or in a different league or however you want to phrase it, but there's no pressure on them to speed themselves towards success. They just want success. And there's something to be said about applying a lot of pressure and making those diamonds that you make with it. There's also something to be said about making sure that you take your time and get it right. And I feel like SpaceX is very much a pressure cooker and Blue Origin is very much to take your time and both have their own results that hopefully will come out. I really am hoping that everything that blue comes out good because frankly like you mentioned the more that we can have the better. But ultimately I think blue just doesn't really care what other people have to think about themselves. They're just here and they're just doing their thing and they're going to do it at their pace when New Glenn flies and then whatever bigger rocket they want because they've said New Glenn is their smallest orbital rocket. Maybe they're not as focused on New Glenn as they should be because they're doing something bigger. I don't know. Are you saying you think potentially blue is playing a game that we don't even know about yet? Like 4D chess or something like that. Are they just like is their vision just so far out there and they're like look we don't have to sell you on this so they're just like I would think in the things that we've seen from Blue and the things that we know about Jeff Bezos and his love for things like Gerard K. O'Neill's The High Frontier and other things like that about moving humanity not just off of Earth but having a permanent presence with a large amount of people and uplifting everyone to actually be a part of that and have a better life thanks to space and have a better life by living in space as well. I feel like they are much more focused towards the middle of the 20th century as opposed to the now and for them, if that means that they have to take the time to do that then that way they could come in and enable some sort of cis-lunar economy that comes in then that's the way they do it. It takes time. I'd also argue that they've kind of been playing the wrong game for a little while especially when there is some bickering with Virgin Galactic to do the first space tourism flight or whatnot I feel like maybe they've put too much focus on that aspect but comparing it to SpaceX they were orbital from day one. I feel like Blue Origin may have spent too much time and resources trying to get the rocket to send people to the edge of space or however you want to define it put the resources and whatnot into the cool thing that's going to send people beyond Earth instead of a 5 minute joy ride to 300,000 feet. Dolly, you're excited. Go Dolly. Go Dolly. I am just actually absolutely thrilled if you want to stick me on the first time untried rocket if the upper stage is a new shepherd I am way more willing because they've already worked that out now obviously I want something like Dragon capable on the return put all those things together and they have already proven the upper stage part of it this is now when I say that 40% on the lunar landing I'm kind of assuming that the tech that is that upper stage motor that they use in New Steppard I know it they're using it as a booster but it's an upper stage motor no really add a little bell okay that's what they would use for the moon so they've already worked out the work and it's going to be six times easier in terms of gravity rates and that kind of thing time gravity difference moon so I think they are as qualified as SpaceX to do a powered landing already and so the bit that's on the second stage and above oh blue is my favorite that's not SpaceX right now my only question is my only lack of happy is blue's schedule not their quality well okay was that intentional it seems obviously intentional that New Shepard was the development of an upper stage to me that it was an excuse to develop upper stage engine otherwise why ever use hydro locks for a carmen line jump what the heck no I actually think that's a good question dot I like to go around the room on that one Ryan do you think that it's been intentional that we've been watching them unfold their cis-lunar economy in front of us and like we didn't even realize that that's their upper stage that's coming to the moon I don't know they haven't said so they haven't said anything exactly the only thing we can do is fill in the blanks since they're not going to tell us what's going on the entire thing is a brag we need to fill the whole thing in there are no brags to fill if it's entirely brag we hear Tori Bruno say what he wanted from them and to what degree he's been able to get it so we have some feedback yeah but the needs of ULA and the needs of blue are very different right right I'm just saying that there's a little bit of view into blue because Tori's talking about being a customer of them so we get to see more than if if not that if not for Vulcan we would not see anywhere near as much about timelines blue is making and failing to make I get the impression and he has never said this but I get the just gut feeling that he's not super excited about being a blue customer I think he was very excited at first and it feels like that relationship has kind of crumbled a little bit over the right did everyone else I don't feel like he was ever excited to be a customer of the Russian supplier for their engines that was handed to him right he didn't have a choice there and it was interesting that he like Aeroget Rocketdyne was like hey ready go but I think the hubris of Aeroget Rocketdyne is what cost them that contract again no insight just me speculating and I've got stories I can't tell in public about how much fun that was to deal with Russian engines it's just us and a few billion people on the planet go ahead on the internet live forever we're all friends here Jared what do you think do you think that we've been watching blue build their cis-lunar economy in front of us and we didn't even realize it 100% I feel that the BE3 engine is what they're going to be using we'll have to see if that's what ends up happening in addition to that vertical takeoff vertical landing is important if you're going to do that with something in terms of like grabbing resources and taking those resources elsewhere especially from a place say the moon in addition to that they've also flown experiments that are essentially landing systems in order to test them Mars landings, moon landings these systems that are taking data in to try to determine radar and other things like that so to me that was to me when I heard about them testing these Mars and moon landing systems on New Shepard that's when I was immediately like testbed like that is exactly what's happening here so they are that data is going to get shared and Blue Origin is going to be able to go back and look at their New Shepard vehicle and also look at that data at the same time and combine whatever they want out of it in order to get some sort of lander for a surface and yeah I felt like it's been there for a while it's just that nobody's really wanted to connect the dots because either A, Blue's not talking about it or because B, everyone just doesn't seem to like Blue for some reason they're going to combine the Flora and Voltron I want to be the red they were tigers, the red lion they were lions, right? I want to be the red lion wait was there a purple lion? I want to be the purple lion there is now there is now, thank you I love how Doug has done it just removes himself from the scene he's just like alright I think we've harped on Blue enough did anyone have any final comments on Blue either in the chat room or here I haven't researched that the report today very well and maybe you all have have you noticed any hardware changes that were part of today's news different from what was proposed prior because I'm very familiar with their hardware and the numbers and all that stuff from prior I'm wondering if they've made any choices to sweeten a deal or anything hopefully it's not still an inflatable silver painted balloon in the middle yeah too soon, too soon ouch ouch it's only a backdrop Jared I just want to remind everybody that this is also how aerospace works you don't want a single provider doing anything you want to have multiple providers commercial cargo developments used to have really good example of that because Falcon 9 was lost on CRS 7 and then before that previously we'd also lost in Antares with Cygnus so yeah it's kind of important to have more than one provider whether you like it or not really great example of what happens when you have a single provider look at the space shuttle in the early days of its program it was made law of the land that you had to fly all of your payloads on shuttle that didn't end so well it's like Titan 4 and other stuff out of that so yeah I'm glad to have another player there because that's how it should be since you mentioned the space shuttle if I may really quickly and then I'll hand it to you Ryan I'm sorry because I'm in Vandenberg for you space nerds who have never done this before just google image search space shuttle Vandenberg some of the most beautiful and real pictures of the space shuttle with like mountains in the background and the beautiful it's incredible I'm so sad it never flew out of here Ryan Baton the launch pad saying in chat bring on Dream Chaser I have to agree with that I've been waiting so long for the baby shuttle to finally fly Vulcan is a thing we're also waiting but still I want to see it not only because fingers crossed it will land in the UK I don't know what purpose that will serve but it's a cool thing that's going to happen but yeah come on Dream Chaser I think we've all been huge Dream Chaser fans from the beginning right I was really I was surprised that they didn't win the commercial crew I thought it was going to be SpaceX and Sierra Nevada right? I wasn't because I figured that they probably looked at Dream Chaser and said oh another shuttle well we don't want something complicated again yeah but that's not Dream Chaser I think it was the maturity of their product not the concept I think the concept is fantastic and I don't think it was the maturity was quite there for them to be selected at that stage okay so again how many astronauts someone in the chat remind me I'm having a hard time remembering this number the Boeing Starliner how many astronauts has it brought to the space station if I remember right they were paid an extra 3 billion dollars for their schedule assurance that's a couple kind I think what I'm suggesting is more a cross between company maturity and product maturity this was before the great downfall of Boeing as well like this is before the 737 MAX stuff this is kind of before Boeing was still looked at in the entire industry it was a very dangerous position I mean clearly actually it's kind of a not great position because then where can you go up from there I think it's so hard to take risk when you're in that case they kind of went conservative with the 767 they went super ultra conservative with the 737 they went super ultra conservative with the 737 MAX just taking this older technology keep adapting it and as opposed to taking a clean sheet and I think a company that is really resting on their laurels is going to take these tiny steps and in this case those tiny steps should have produced a consistently reliable answer and because it didn't we're all surprised I was surprised I'm going to push back on that a little bit their conservatism was incorrectly placed their conservatism was for incremental design but they also were too big to fail and thought that they could get away with not having to being too conservative being too conservative and not having to update flight manuals and properly trained pilots for new equipment and that was their downfall it wasn't that the design was faultier the design was bad it's that they didn't train pilots how to deal with it and that's what they used to slip that through by the FAA and not go through the cost and time expense of recertifying the new of the plane and that was what their downfall was all the changes that they made to the 737 were fine and would have been fine if the pilots on board knew how to deal with them when they went wrong so they were conservative in the wrong places I don't think it was just the 737 MAX I think it was a combination of bad timing that happened all at once they had that they had Starliner have valve issues because of course it does it's an air spaceship they had to drop out of I mean they also had to drop out of the XS1 project as well for DARPA they fly 10 times get the payload up their project they eventually dropped that because they said that's too complicated but I don't but you know what actually Jamie I feel like I know what you're about to say which is that was a DARPA project so of course it's allowed to have that sort of wiggle room what I was going to say is I also know engineers at Boeing and also absurdly smart people I found that the problem in most of these companies is not the engineers I look at these engineers and they're phenomenally smart people and then there's also Dada I'm just giving you shit but no really truly they're incredible I just want to point out to the entire community he had to put on the big huge smile while doing that he then had to turn and look and hit the button to allow it to actually go back down it was pretty well done Dada well done but truly these engineers are absolutely incredible I know like I don't think Boeing has bad engineers and I don't think they're not up to the challenge I think Boeing has a management problem I don't know how we got on this topic from Blue Origin although does Blue Origin have the same ooh mmm they both take a very similar mentality huh that's maybe a future show I'll tweet that out as a poll you see where I'm going with this one right does Blue Origin have the same mentality problem that Boeing has that old space like we can do no wrong hard to say I don't know I'm going to do a show about management I don't think people realize just how big a thing that is in aerospace it's what arguably the downfall of Boeing I'm going to disinvolve myself from that conversation I'm sorry Dada I'm sorry Dada you know there are no guarantees in aerospace what's the joke what's the quickest way to become a millionaire in aerospace start a billionaire so for this conversation obviously we can only allow uninformed amateurs to speak I mean welcome to the tomorrow shows exactly but I mean that's what this is it's a bunch of aerospace nerds geeking out over aerospace and then having a fun conversation with you the community right hopefully you guys are enjoying yourselves and I need to do a better job of bringing in your comments but yeah okay I think we have stalled on the Blue Story I'm going to I think I'm going to go around the room and since in my interface Ryan you're in the upper left hand corner and I read left to right top to bottom why don't I hand the baton to you did you have anything fun or did I steal your Blue Story well for me I'm actually in the bottom right but anyway I'll go on with it this is going to be the most jankiest transition you've ever seen but I'll roll with it by the way are you wearing an Artemis shirt yeah there you go oh man this is in the wrong place here we go this is brilliant okay so you know we're talking about pretty yeah so this is the launch that happened the other day you can't remember when don't really care anyway we were talking about pretty launch sites the other day the other day the other minute and I just want to bring in the Shi Chang Satellite Launch Center because if we if we ignore the orange spicy smoke that's the only thing I saw I saw that fire if we ignore the orange spicy smoke and the person starting five meters away with their phone recording it I think it's one of the most beautiful launch sites it's so pretty wait a minute it's so pretty you saw a person standing there watching it what this is mobile phone footage oh okay well yeah there's a zoom on some of these cameras I will tell you're not wrong that is really go back go back that's like a large forest fire waiting to happen but it's so pretty absolutely gorgeous and all I could see was the trees aren't hypergolic actually they're green so they probably would not burn easily nothing wrong at all it's very pretty though I like that we all just stopped and watched the launch yeah yeah so are you saying that this camera is not remote it's this is a so this is a remote camera let me skip forward again this is a remote camera but there's a slightly different angle here you can see the quality goes down slightly as well this is 100% someone holding their phone up scary close to the path you don't know that to be true if that's true why did that person do such a heroic nonsensical thing that violates our rule no dying well they didn't die I don't know no but this is that come towards them because like maybe I mean 99% of the time what you see is what you get and the other 1% of the time oh screamy screamy death but yeah it's neat no shuttle slick 6 so you're right it is not slick 6 so again Jared making a call back to the space shuttle in vantaburg it was but there's no fog so you win some you agree some yeah but the pictures of the shuttle on slick 6 did not have fog also oh my god so much fog this morning I I doubted you brought yourself back in does that mean you've got a point to make or you were just excited about slick 6 there was there was something about the smoke in that video that makes the hypergolic the spicy smoke looks look fake just the it's like the color and how it overlays it makes it look like it's it's faked on on top of it might be just like plumes do weird things I know I'm not questioning it's questioning its validity it just makes it look weird it almost seems like the initial startup mixture had a darker more orange smoke and then once it got to full power it was a different color well yeah it was undiluted spicy because it shoved all of the toxic hypergols the concentration of spicy was was greater than initial startup oh man alright so let's move on unless you had anything else Ryan like you were like oh my god this is really pretty and just wanted to show that was it just pretty pretty old footage absolutely totally allowed for the live show right that's the point of the live shows us nerding out and being like look how gorgeous this is and that was gordish are you eating mustard on your getting at it trying to get the spicy out of my mouth ah so that's how you clean hypergols you get a whole bunch of mustard in ya that's what I heard let's hand the baton to Dolly did you have anything fun or exciting that you wanted to talk about this week yeah yeah you got a new colleague if all the rumors are correct and they seem to be uh Kathy Looters I've been a fan of hers for freaking ever well no not but long enough probably probably yeah probably uh since like seven years or so ago when I started talk hearing her talk a lot about requirements shift requirements approach shift in commercial crew and commercial cargo that she was a really big part of uh and I got so thrilled about NASA changing their approach even a little bit in terms of requirements and risk management and sharing information on siloing between people getting requirements and and I note that um like it was last year year year and a half ago uh Tim Dodd had a uh interview with Elon at Boca and at Starbase and uh he was talking a lot about requirements and it reminded me of Kathy Looters talk about requirements and I just you know my wishful thinking says that she had a huge impact on Elon and that and I don't really care which other one what I'm seeing here is heroic and excellent progress on doing things better doing things smarter and in the mouth of my heroes and now she now gets to go work with him primarily even though working with him secondarily is one of many uh for all these years now she's going to SpaceX and taking you know my home team because rockets are my sports ball and SpaceX is my home team personally and taking my home team to uh yet more all-star games yeah so Kathy thank you thank you for your past thank you for your future thank you for our future anyway thank you Kathy yeah moving to SpaceX to uh continue her career doing amazing things worked very well with her commercial crew and things like that so it's certainly exciting to see her move up to basically kind of not second in command but that kind of layer reporting directly to the top uh to to Grand Shop now so a very senior position uh pretty much the most most experienced commercial company at the moment with the launch cadence yeah very very cool and I wanted the oh yeah what you got Dolly no uh go ahead oh no you if you got more to say oh no and I was just going to say and of course uh uh Jamie is allergic to talking about anybody who's like anywhere near SpaceX apparently this this offended her and I hope she will forgive and come back at some other time and not hold it against me yeah and uh what do you what do you think in terms of the human spaceflight management what do you think would change with Kathy coming into play here gosh I don't know I don't see anything in my mind about SpaceX doing it wrong or right uh it seems like they are hitting a good balance of risk and aggressiveness with their customers intentions uh so if anything I would think Kathy coming in would just help them focus on what is that optimum and I don't have any clear idea myself I have no insight as to whether they are below or above that optimum or how to adjust or anything else to to find uh the that best but I trust that Kathy does so I'm happy she's helping with that I just personally find it very interesting that she is being specifically sent to Starbase where Gwen is kind of running the show now so now it's Gwen and Kathy working together and they both obviously have a very I would imagine they're probably a very good working relationship with each other because of all the work that they've done for commercial cargo and commercial crew so very exciting two people that definitely know their stuff all located in the same spot focusing on the same spot so definitely have to see what kind of elevation that may add to it How much should we speculate that her being at Starbase is about Artemis and Starship and of the people not in dragons but in things that are uh the next uh the dragon thing oh the uh human landing system yeah all of the stuff that isn't dragon currently which would be like the most obvious place for me to put Kathy because of her experience and everything else and how much effort and and cadence and everything else we're doing in terms of dragon with the human space flight or instead putting her entirely focused on the on the next generation of SpaceX human space flight which is necessarily going to be stainless steel I think well we'll have the at the point where Kathy was in charge of commercial cargo and commercial crew that was the next generation of space flight ah yes so she is Starship is the next generation of space flight so you put her on at this very start very start we'll be going for a little while but theoretically the very start of that journey towards I guess and and and so forth that's kind of where Kathy was involved from commercial crew commercial cargo indeed indeed and she's far from a rookie she she is incredibly well qualified to jump in on the team so yay old gay man who's saying in chat dragon XL yeah that's funny dragon XXXXXXL that's what Starship is yeah we haven't heard anything about it so nine X's that's all at least me personally that's all I've got to say yeah we can we can welcome Jamie back and shut up about SpaceX okay yeah whatever Jamie is certainly welcome to return it's gonna be funny because now I'm gonna hand the baton so for those who don't know right like I remove myself from those conversations so nothing against you Dolly but like I can't talk about that in the easiest way to ensure that nothing happens right it's just to turn off my camera and audio right so that's it was also the first time because normally when I'm in station on station you know next to Jared the SpaceX stories come up and I what I literally do is I just slide away I just do this yeah and I back out and I back away from the camera and away from the microphone so they can't see or hear me but when I'm remote like this my version of backing away is to turn off all my cameras and whatnot I think you guys did a really fantastic job though like I think you did a really great like awesome thank you but there's also a chance that Jared's gonna have a SpaceX story I'm gonna have to turn it off again but like you know moving the baton drumroll exactly right uh Jared so I do not have a SpaceX story and I'm okay rolling my camera on now I'm rolling through this now to try to try to get where I'm at so as we all learn Vmix here that's the good stuff right so did you say Vmix did you say Vmix Vmix Vmix Vmix oh my god I swear these it feels like every week we've got a new one we're working on and it's six one half dozen or another whatever the phrasing wait wait hang on we should we gotta all look at the right do I have to look this way where am I looking this way I gotta go this way right alright alright enough of us alright alright well all I can see is this on my screen that's the hard part about this and I don't even know if that has it up yet or not but I just wanted to give a quick shout out to Saturn for having had 62 new moons discovered just this or at least that data was just released this week so now Saturn officially has 145 moons going around it which it has snatched that the king of the moons or whatever the top mooner I don't know can't we argue though that each of the different rocks in the rings is also a moon you know you could but then this would get into then Saturn kind of wins by Saturn wins by like I don't know a margin bigger than the universe itself there's no way anything else it's Pluto all over again you've created the exact same Pluto debate why Ryan why did you do this Ryan we can't have that happen again I mean people have nearly gotten into fights physical disfights at conferences over that okay so let's just I'm not going there it's just it's a hundred it's 145 because they found 62 new ones Saturn is now on top of the moon count here and speed up Jupiter and I'm sure probably later this year someone will drop a study on Jupiter and it'll get over Saturn's again it'll go over that hurdle and then they're just going to hurdle their way up and up and up for more moons so it's all it's all moons down from here so shout out to Newsy go ahead Ryan I was going to say there's a boardroom of astronomers in the back area just be like alright we're beating for now but we got it we can get back out on top what's our game plan here how are we going to do like white boarding things out trying to find more moons alright so how are we going to we should just figure out how to put this in here how about we do there's that one person in the background who's like why don't we just call the rains the moons and then everybody just like wrote something out of to make him be quiet so we could figure things out and you know how are we going to you know it's got these many moons okay I have two things then one is shepherd moons okay never mind one is shout out to New Zealand and Japan and parts around there where it's already Saturn's day hmm crossing that date line it's already Saturn's day in parts of the world right now because we're close enough to midnight in my time zone that a lot of the world's already in Saturn's day so honoring that and me it's Saturn's day in Ryan's space right there I did get it right that shouldn't be too difficult should be easy we'll just use the Death Star that we have hanging out out there and just moving on I can handle it in Kerbal give me a couple of iterations I'll work it out before we talk about what's happening with tomorrow did you have anything you wanted to talk about I know that wasn't your homework I just figured I'd ask yeah yeah I know make Dada do the homework too right because he's always on us like do you have your meeting do whatever what well do you Dada do you I've been researching jobs oh oh he made me feel bad as well you should I'm sorry Dada alright so before we go and before we think all of our members you'll note that like the shows have been a little bit rocky and I haven't been on them for a hot minute so I apologize for that I'm trying to find ways to make this this happen but my schedule at Company X has been bonkers I don't think actually quite outlines how like I just I'm always on an airplane now just join from the airplane they won't they won't notice you're in first class they don't care they don't care when I when I went to New York in December right there when I signed up for the internet there was a specific thing that said no video calling or phone calling what not how would they know if I just don't talk if I'm just there they won't know how would I host the show if I'm just sitting there on an airplane you'd put it in chat text text and smirks you just see a picture of me you just do emoji reactions we just have to learn sign language oh god all right so I've been traveling a lot one of the things I'm contemplating doing and nothing is set in stone so don't take this for anything is I'm thinking of moving the shows to weekends because I found it's a little bit easier for me to get into the shows on weekends and they do miss everyone I miss everyone in the live panel I miss the I miss you the chat like everyone right so I would love feedback in the comments as to what you think about like weekends and then like times what you think would work because like weekends are hard for people you know and that's why we don't do it on a weekend also it does into our days right it eats into our family time and that's kind of why we moved it off of weekends to begin with but like if I can't even be here then what's the point basically I'm saying this all about me that's what I'm getting at the second thing is we're using a lot of remote tools and we're not using the remote tools because I'm remote although that doesn't hurt we're using the remote tools because we are losing station 204 at the end of the year we the the landlord we got a new landlord and they have a different vision for the facility and so they are not renewing anyone's leases in the new year and so we are required to move out by December 31st 2023 so I was kind of like you know do we want to spend do we want the capital outlay of this entire big studio space or do we want to find a way to just do this wherever we may be and it makes me a little bit sad because Duda built this phenomenal set and I would argue that thing it's a shit yeah exactly Jared right like it's real right like yeah go knock on it yeah you can we can't see that go knocking it somewhere else go knock on a different bit there we go there's some of my blood in that spot on the other side oh oh we all blood on that we all blood on that Duda the most Duda blood and sweat and like Duda is also half made of MDF MDF dust now that's a blood so much that his hat actually bled off and morphed onto the back of the set itself it did it's part of his structure now he requires MDF anyhow you're muted I feel like I should be putting this on my resume you absolutely should anyhow so we're going to lose the station and I think I just want to move into a remote workflow so I've been playing behind the scenes for a few weeks and Ryan has been privy to some of this and lots of me swearing I've been playing with different remote options to try to do something just kind of cloud based which is everything that I'm against I do believe actually I was saying it to Duda earlier like I believe that's you know milliseconds matter and like you know having these really tight shows kind of matters and like you know anyhow it's really hard to do that in the cloud and so we're struggling a little bit with these shows it's a new technology we're trying to figure out what the workflow looks like and we have not mastered this workflow yet so I just ask for a little bit of patience as we try to figure out what this all looks like and how this all goes together like we'll get Duda some better tools actually have this stream deck here with me in Vandenberg but like that'll make his life easier so just click on the button and boom things pop up because tactileness actually does matter so anyhow just if you wouldn't mind bear with us and then like constructive criticism being like hey and actually I would argue things that work are just as important as things that don't so a lot of people will tell me the negative things and I do appreciate that like I want to know the things that aren't working for you does the time not work, does the format not work things like that but then also like things that do work because if you don't tell me what does work I may inadvertently eliminate it thinking it's not working and I'm constantly changing the show trying to make it better but I don't want to remove the things that are working I just want to remove the ones that aren't to like improve it but I don't want to remove the change isn't just change for the sake of change it's change for the sake of improvement so yeah that so any feedback you have there would be appreciated with regards to all of it one of the other things I'm thinking about doing is adding interviews back into the show I have no idea how that's going to work out but I think what we'll do is here's where everything breaks in this new format so I'm going to do this in the member chat and for those of you who are YouTube members we'll continue this conversation and kind of see how things go and you might be like hey where's the link for the member chat and the problem is we can't build one in advance so what we have to do is like finish this show and then like go back and do a new one it's not great so give us give us a minute to actually like end this show and if you're a member like go back over to YouTube go to youtube.com if you're not a member it will show up in the memberships area just click on that and we'll continue this conversation it should be a lot of fun if you're not a member and you'd like to become a member please do we've got a bunch of really awesome members already you can subscribe at a ground support level which is like as little as I think I heard oh I fell off stage oh wonder why I wonder why maybe when the photos went up it kicked us out well anyhow well but I could hear you guys hang on hang on let's find we'll figure it out in the member chat so those are a bunch of different things I'm sorry that you lost all of our audio and we'll figure out how that works in the future oh oh muted that's all because it's a pre-built scene and so you have to build the scene with the audio and I didn't build it with audio I only built it with the slides so you can go back and build that scene better because you can build anything you want so you can actually make it EVMUX can do the power of EVMUX you can do anything you want the downside of EVMUX is you can do anything you want and so you can do yourself up exactly like I just did so anyhow I hope you guys had a fun time like I said watch for the membership show Dada hit the button that's it for us this week we have an opportunity to see you guys next week