 My name is Derb MacDonald and I'm delighted to be here to spare the blushes of the IIA panel and other all male panel. We urge you to have Lynn Boiland of Fortress, who isn't available this morning, but I want to reassure all the men here and I just hope that my Easter dinner is enough for you. The net impact of Brexit is going to be impossible to George. I feel a little bit guilty. I've been on a bit of a cottage tour. Everybody has kind of grown up around Brexit and I've been guilty of taking part in that. I suppose I come to Brexit with all of the emotional and cultural and psychological hang-ups of somebody who grew up on the border in the shadows of the largest British army base, probably in the north, during the troubles and the frustration sometimes that when you are a reporter or anybody from the north in the south that generally and all of the previous panel of the editors seem to reassure us or confirm something that sometimes there isn't an awful lot of interest in the north in terms of staring me in the face and it's been quite funny in some respects watching our colleagues in the UK, Google who are the DUP and why does it matter. But in the last hour we've seen why it does matter. They've just negotiated a deal of one billion, possibly up to 1.5 billion sterling for the north. So I suppose I do come to the Brexit debate with a particular focus on the border but what we've invited each of the panels to do this morning to Matt Carthy, Stephen Donnelly, Michael McDowell and Neil Richmond is to close their eyes and imagine what life might be like in 2025. I think if we've learned anything from the last two years is that it really isn't possible to predict anything. But I wonder in 2025 will we be still in negotiations with a couple of Volomias in the way, perhaps not too happy. Will the UK have thrown in the toil on the back of the negotiations fatigue or perhaps the full impacts or real impacts of it at that time? Are we in a united Ireland or will we have had a border pole by that stage? Brexit certainly has accelerated a debate that two or three years ago would have not been a mainstream debate. Are we in federal Europe or on that path will the Macron magic have continued? Will it be all about Brexit anyway? Will all the issues have come to the fore and taken over? I find sometimes naturally that because we are here at the epicentre of the Brexit debate it's something that we speak a lot about and discuss an awful lot about, but the further away you go especially on the continental Europe where I was speaking we see about Brexit and even further afield Dan and I were we see in Australia at an EU Australia leadership forum and the feelings about Brexit are different depending on your perspective and what region you are in. So I wonder will there be other issues? What will the China story be at that stage? What will the US story be at that stage? And where will the migration crisis have evolved at that point? But what we've asked each of the panellists to do is to outline what outcomes they expect, what they'd like to see and what positions the key players should be adopting at this point. They won't have seven minutes each, they'll have five minutes each. That's the difference between a female and a male editor. Keeping strictly to that. Because he's got a big impressive book that he brought in with him Michael Mordola, look on the floor to you first. Okay, I was just wondering if they were talking about how do you describe a group of editors. I'm just looking around this room now, they're called Leavers. The first thing is to envisage Ireland post Brexit and clearly as long as we are in a state of ignorance as to how hard or soft the border will be and that in turn depends completely on how close the trading relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union is. We are speaking about an unknown and an unknowable at this stage. But myself and Neil Richmond have been serving on a committee chaired by Neil which is about to publish a report in the very near future. On our view at this stage, given our imperfect knowledge of the implications for Ireland of the Brexit process and without divulging any secrets, it will be a good report and a comprehensive report and it has been solution orientated from the very beginning. So Neil may want to say something further about that later. I believe the common travel area poses no problems whatsoever. I don't believe that there is any significant problem and that people who see complications arising from it are manufacturing doubts. The fact that a French person living in Sutton may have different rights when going to the United Kingdom from an Irish person is a matter of completing difference to the courts in Great Britain and their status in Great Britain will be regulated by whatever deal is done but the difference between how they are treated and how Irish people are treated is irrelevant. So I believe that there will be common citizenship open to people in Northern Ireland as is at the present. Irish people will be able to travel to England and British people to Ireland entirely freely. They'll be able to vote in each other's parliamentary elections and they'll be able to freely establish business in both countries after this. That I think will remain. So I don't think that's an issue. The second major issue is freedom of movement of goods on the customs union side and the freedom of movement of goods is obviously dependent on how approximate to free trade the British and the European Union negotiate their deal. I don't know whether total freedom of movement of goods is likely, I doubt it somehow, but I do believe that the elaboration of a customs control on the border depends very much on the size of the problem and the nature of the problem. One of the things that is very obvious to me, though, however, is that in Ireland in particular and in both parts of Ireland, the agriculture and agri-business sector have very similar interests at the moment and the Tories are going to, they have guaranteed that the present situation will endure up to 2020, and Michael Gold was talking about cheap food policies thereafter and that is absolutely pregnant with consequence for Ireland if you're looking at what's going to happen after that. And Northern farmers in particular and their subsidization and any difference, any major difference in subsidization on either side of the border is a big issue and whether Irish farmers will be selling expensive food into a cheap food market in Great Britain has huge consequences for us. Apart from trading goods then there's the single market issue which is separate from the customs union and I do agree with Sarah Kerry that the distinction has to be clearly underlined but Ireland has nothing really major to fear about the extent to which Britain is excluded from the single market and it is going to be excluded from the single market quite obviously. There are ups and downs and that there are disadvantages. Some businesses will tend to move into the United Kingdom to be regulated there other businesses will move to Dublin to be regulated here and I don't know how they balance out but the implications I think are fairly predictable given that Britain is getting out of the single market. Can I just then look forward which is what I'm supposed to be doing very briefly and say that in my view if your EU's reaction to Britain's exit was to intensify the integration process if that was the reaction among the federalists in Brussels it will put a massive strain on this island going forward because one part of the island will be going in one direction a bit like you know you see these documentaries about the Galapagos islands moving over volcanic areas under the sea we will be going in different areas there will be a San Andreas fault type thing in terms of where the two parts of Ireland are going unless Britain is so close to the European Union like Norway or Switzerland or something like that that it doesn't really matter as to what will happen in Northern Ireland the demographics are very obvious now that the Catholic section of the community insofar as that's a way of looking at people meaningfully from their political outlook is concerned they will be in an effective majority but in the population fairly soon and they will be in an effective majority in the voting population in about 20 years time that's the way Northern Ireland is going at the moment all the demographics show that is the case but it does not mean in my view that there's going to be a border pole because being Catholic in Northern Ireland by no means implies that you want to switch from highly subsidized membership of the United Kingdom and if I may say something which may surprise you I agree with Gerry Adams but I'm surprised that he has taken so long to realize it that the fundamental duty for republicans in this island among which I count myself is to achieve an entirely new relationship of respect between nationalism and republicans on the one hand and unionism and royalism on the other hand that process will take a generation probably but it's never too soon to start the work of reconciliation of this island I want to go maybe to Stephen because I know you've taken particular interest in the north and obviously a lot has moved on and Michael has spoken to the demographics but a lot hasn't 9 out of 10 social housing is still segregated along traditional political and religious lines you look at our school system in Northern Ireland where the 90% of young children are educated in segregated education it receives the largest fiscal transfer from any region in the UK including the head of Wales so where do you see what we next need to do there in terms of prioritizing not just the border but the position of Northern Ireland as the breadth of process moves There goes my speech I think what has to be put front and centre is the welfare of the people of Northern Ireland so there is identity politics going on which is fine but we have to recognize that before Brexit happened Northern Ireland is starting considerably further back in terms of prosperity and progress than either the Republic or the UK so the UN Human Development Index has the Republic listed I think at joint 8th with Germany the UK is at about 14th and Mark Daley worked with the Iraqis research team recently to run the numbers for Northern Ireland so the Human Development Index is an aggregate of GDP per capita, life expectancy and education so you can actually pull them out and run them for a region and they are not published for a region but were they to be published for Northern Ireland Northern Ireland ranked 14th so you are in transition economy Eastern European levels the first thing we need to understand is because of the peace process probably because of the the geography where it is and size and so forth it is starting from way further back and Brexit is without a shadow of a doubt going to make it harder to progress economically in Northern Ireland and identity politics are played so I was at a meeting in Belfast recently with ex-paramilitaries and clergy and senior business people and most of them or many of them were supporting Brexit and I said you have thrown your own people under a bus here economically, like what you have done is madness and they said that for them and some of them a bunch of them would have been DUP supporters they said it is not about economics it is about identity and if there is a decision to be made to strengthen the union with the UK or strengthen the union with the Republic we will always choose to strengthen the union with Britain and that is the way it is so what do we do about that first of all we need to have an honest conversation about the fact that Northern Ireland socio-economically is very significantly behind both UK and Ireland and the closer integration in either way normalisation with the Republic for example would inevitably help the second thing we have got to do is we have got to safeguard the Good Friday Agreement now the DUP obviously aren't supporters of the Good Friday Agreement the Tories are probably lukewarm with the Good Friday Agreement there is talk of as an immediate step we are in a period of uncertainty rather than instability we are in a period of great uncertainty and big things are changing the border pole is an example of trying to get an extra change in there at the same time that would be a really bad idea the Good Friday Agreement needs to be protected so when it comes to Northern Ireland we need as much stability as we can get while Brexit is happening try and batten down the hatches and protect as much as we can there is going to be damage minimise the border minimise any potential trade links also between the north and the UK and let's get through Brexit and then let's have a conversation about border poles and those kind of things in three years or whenever it is but certainly that kind of thing shouldn't be happening right now another critical way of protecting the Northern Irish economy is to try and maintain whatever ongoing linkages we can between the north and the EU so sector by sector special status special status exactly but special status means different things to different people now interestingly Simon Coveney in his first speech on Brexit at the launch of the committee report the other day because he was observing three days into his brief and he doesn't know that Eddie Kenny brought it from special status Charlie Flanning from special status to unique circumstances but Simon Coveney actually was impressive in his tone he said special status special status needs to be an ongoing sector by sector linkages now I spoke to Michelle Barney about this after he addressed the joint houses a few weeks back and said could you see ongoing linkages small things like Erasmus what important cultural student exchange he said yeah big things like horizon 2020 which is the full European and he said difficult but maybe what about even bigger things like the common agricultural policy 87% of farm incomes in Northern Ireland coming from Europe now Jeffrey Donaldson when we debated this a while ago said that they had a guarantee that that full amount would still come from London maybe you will maybe you won't the UK Treasury is going to be under increased pressure the DUP being there probably helped in terms of the short term but certainly not in terms of the long term so if we could maintain whatever linkages we can because you can deconstruct the EU to an extent into the different sector by sector agreements fisheries, agriculture, research student exchange now obviously it is more than some of its parts but actually you can go piece by piece and say well is there some way we can continue to do this and we have this I think unprecedented situation where we'll have is a 1.85 million people all of whom are entitled to Irish citizenship so it would be the biggest block of EU citizens outside of the EU now is there some way of continuing to give them access to the European Court of Justice or the European Bill of Rights I'm not saying it's easy but that kind of detail thinking this is an unprecedented situation where we're saying we've nearly 2 million EU citizens who are shortly going to be outside the EU outside the political institutions the legal frameworks, the single market the customs union is there anything we can do to continue to afford them legal linkages economic linkages, cultural linkages with the rest of the EU the initial rhetoric from across the world hasn't been too good on institutions such as the ECJ Neil, you've been charting the solutions do you want to share any or some of them with us I'll share a few because the report isn't due out until Monday and I do have a copy here that deeply highlighted you can give it to me there Michael threatened to put in about 78 amendments by close business tonight so it's definitely not a final report and one com that was made I think by Lord Oledais was our last public speaker and he said the difference between difficult and impossible is impossible, takes over and that's kind of a real aspect in regard to approach the negotiations and the discussions and trying to can say everything needs to be done by 2019 or try and visage in 2025 while it makes for a great sound bite it's not necessarily realistic we do have set timelines but ultimately whatever is going to be agreed or not agreed by the deadline is going to take a considerable amount of time to implement and we'll be able to go such as an EU-US open skies agreement that can be done quickly and it can make sure as Michael Oledais says that the planes actually take off the morning after the deal has struck and there's a tripartite agreement between Ireland, the UK and France in relation to the horse racing industry all these things can be done quite easily quite quickly and it can be front loaded and I think we can get those easy sort of wins and they're good for Europe, they're good for Ireland and good for the UK lengthy submissions we received to the committee of possible solutions we only wanted solutions most people came and they said we're going to lay out all the problems and we had to cut across and say you five minutes so no and then we have huge, huge tranches of written submissions where they all laid out the problems but where they identified solutions some of them are going to be really really difficult some of them are knee jerk some of them sound great the great difficulty is the situation you find us in the short term is we don't know what the UK is we have a fair idea what we know the UK doesn't know what it wants and ultimately when these negotiations conclude do we know if we'll still be negotiating with the Theresa May led administration or the Conservative led administration we don't, with the EU we do have an element of consistency that the EU 27 has agreed something that put the process in place and even if there is a change from September from Angela Merkel to Martin Schultz it's still going to be roughly the same EU 27 and I think that's a positive for Ireland it's a positive for the process as a whole and ultimately I'll go back to the key point there's probably four key areas that might happen in 2019 either the UK reverse decision has another referendum and decides to abandon Brexit highly unlikely but it is a possibility and I don't think we should abandon that possibility because it's probably the best solution for Ireland and then there's the ultimate that we have a clean, completed Brexit given full assent by the European Parliament Graeberpeel, Bailarack, classes Westminster ultimately when Brexit was voted upon just over a year ago we probably thought that would happen, we're hopeful for it but that has been completely thrown out the window now it's again, that's probably as likely as getting the UK to change their mind on Brexit at this stage and then with the other two scenarios that are probably more likely and more scary is that we don't get any agreement and we go to WTO rules and that's really, really the worst case scenario, in my opinion I think bar for some ideologues in the Conservative Party is the worst case scenario for most and then ultimately what I think is most likely to happen I'll put a health warning, maybe give it a 20% or 15% chance because no one really knows anyone who tells you they know exactly what's going to happen is either lying or delusional but there is a fair chance that we'll have a minimal agreement that will allow for a transition period of 10, 15, 20 I think sort of lots of grace periods being mooted over at the weekend My card to 2025 you wake up, is it a United Ireland? Is it what kind of an Ireland do you see? Is it a hard Brexit? Well to deal with the United Ireland issue first I suppose in 10 years time it's a bit longer than 2025 we're going to be at the position vis-à-vis United Ireland that we currently are with Brexit by and large in other words we're going to know what's going to happen it's actually going to become part of the political reality the de facto acknowledgement of everybody who is looking at it independently now whether or not the poll will have taken place or not, I'm not sure but we will actually be in a position where we will all know that there's going to be United Ireland and the question that I think needs to be answered is whether or not we want that to be happening in the same context that Brexit is happening now in Britain where nobody actually knows what it's going to look like or whether we put in the groundwork between now and then to actually map out what the political constitution and even some of the economic frameworks will look like in that United Ireland that's what Sinn Fein are actually engaged with. The short-term challenge for us all is Brexit and when I say in the next 10 years I think Brexit has accelerated that process probably by editing to another 10 years so it's going to be happening a decade earlier than probably it would have naturally happened anyway so the challenges that Brexit present are huge regardless of what the political circumstances in Ireland were whether without partition, Brexit was always going to create challenges it's our nearest neighbour we have what's called a shared future or a shared past it's not a term I particularly like it's a hugely important trading partner and it stands between us and the rest of Europe so one way or another Brexit was always going to create huge challenges every one of the challenges that it presents is multiplied by the fact that we have a partitioned country we're a very small island on the edge of Europe a little over 6 million people and we have two of Everton and we're now faced with the prospect of Everton that we already have two of being having a further wedge driven between us so there's lots of things that we need to resolve obviously we all want to see an executive established in the North I don't think that's actually going to address the fundamental problem that we have that whenever that executive is re-established the two largest parties of it are going to have exactly the opposite position on Brexit the DUP were pro-Brexit, their supporters I think this has been acknowledged earlier did so because for many of them it was their border pole that was their opportunity to say that a certain their political loyalties as opposed to any consideration the rhetoric around the border pole in the wake of the assembly elections where Sinn Fein came to within close to a thousand votes actually galvanised the DUP I think that rhetoric backfired on Sinn Fein because it galvanised the DUP and it's now led to if you look at the political map in Ireland a more divided political map now do you agree that that kind of rhetoric and the fact that we haven't addressed those issues in the North around the citizens are identity politics actually backfired for you well no our vote increased from March to to the most recent Westminster elections it did but if you look at what happened actually within unionism the unionist vote it can actually increase what happened was that the unionist vote consolidated and the consolidated just consolidated around the DUP but I think if you look at and I know there was a lot of fake outrage in this city around Sinn Fein's abstentionism policy in relation to the election of our seven MPs I think what happened in the North and what's happening in the North is very similar to what happened across the entire country a hundred years ago in that nationalists have said that they no longer consider the center of their political lives to be in Westminster and they are increasingly demanding that that the epicenter of progress happens on this island and I know it's easy to describe you know talk of border polar polar unity or whatever one wants to call as rhetoric but I think if anybody looks at what we have been doing in Sinn Fein over the past number of years this work began prior to Brexit in terms of trying to outline and engage with others in relation to pursuing our ultimate objective we are not making any apologies for that I have seen Irish reunification we have been going to great lengths to engage with everybody including the unionist community that work has been happening by a large behind the scenes mostly at a civic level where we have been meeting with church leaders we have been seeking meetings with the orange order we have been meeting with unionist commentators we have been hosting conferences in which we have invited every other political party to come along the majority of which actually just simply refuse to acknowledge it the Brexit deal is going to be negotiated not even by Ireland but the EU 27 and the UK and there is now no voice of nationalism at Westminster I wanted to just deal with that at some point Michael is that I think that politics of abstentionism was kind of fine when the STLP were there kind of flying flag as it were but is that kind of loss of voice of concern to you at Westminster I think that if they had taken their seats we would have almost 20 from the block of Northern Ireland, rather than just 10 what matters is correct in one sense that there was a polarization between the two on either side of the comment by the Northern Ireland and he says that the increase in the Sinn Fein is an answer to you saying it backfired but I mean if you look at things in a slightly different way it did backfire and it was very evident before the election it was backfiring because Gerry Adams decided that he was going to talk up the board of police in certain instances where we all know that the board of police now it would be beaten 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 at least in Northern Ireland if there is a board of police and this is kind of the process of polarization shoot the suits Sinn Fein very much it suits them to polarise opinion to maximise their support within the green side of that divide the actual physical map of Northern Ireland in electoral terms has now pushed the orange section east of the band and north of our map and around Belfast so I mean a polarization is happening in Northern Ireland and depolarisation is the fundamental issue and reconciliation between the two communities in Northern Ireland is the fundamental imperative for wolf tone style Thomas Davis style Republicans and that has not been pursued and that is why we are going backwards a bit at the moment in my view but I don't want to get involved in an ideological argument I am saying this though that the DUP is now getting one and a half billion as the ransom for their support and that's in the context of the Tories planning 10 years of cutbacks everywhere and progressive cutbacks which are going to cross the whole of British society their austerity program which I consider to be misconceived it would otherwise have bitten much more heavily into Northern Ireland and would have created a crisis there because Sinn Fein and the DUP neither of them can really live with austerity digging in deeper into that society and then finally to come to the point about being optimistic because I don't want to be argumentative here I do believe in the United Ireland reconciliation but if the response of the European Union is to impose an increasingly integrated and different order on the member states I go back to the point I made earlier the tectonic plates will be moving in different directions and the reason I brought the book along it's a book about the Habsburg Empire I believe absolutely that any attempt to impose an integrated Federalist European plan for Europe in this context now will lead to disintegration rather than integration I don't believe that a top-down thing such as this paper by Giver Hofstadt is right at all I think what's needed in Europe is a big pause so that all of Eastern Europe and the Balkans and all the rest of us can come together and see what's wrong with Europe at the moment it is fundamentally intergovernmental and that in my view is the way it must remain because there isn't a common European people, a Bulgarian and a marriage person cannot even talk to each other in the same language we cannot understand the same jokes we can't watch a president of Europe's presidential debate on TV without wondering what the hell is going on so I mean let's be realistic let's keep Europe in touch with the people and let's keep it at a governmental level Well that segues nicely into the next question for the panel what is going to be the future of Europe and Ireland's relationship with it because some have perceived the rise of Macron as kind of a reason for a closer European integration especially we're now, it's kind of been around for quite a while but certainly the discussion around the potential for a eurozone treasury is certainly gaining much much more traction now but it comes with caution for smaller member states I think it was Michael Noonan possibly at one of these events who heard caution about how Europe could become a cold place for smaller countries essentially around red line issues such as tax and in particular I think the context he made in speaking and I stand to be correct it was the CCC TV so is this an opportunity for those in Europe who want to push ahead and actually is that something that could backfire and worse even do we fit in within that debate We're going to have to box really really clever for the next few years because several things have happened and they're probably all negative or neutral for Ireland in terms of our position in Europe we've all seen first of all just going back to when we joined the monetary union we saw what being out of sync with the mainland did at a time when the price money needed to go up for us the price money went close to zero which led to this huge influx of cash into the country and we all know what happened after that so we already have some reasonable experience I think out of sync with the main powers in a monetary union we now have another problem because the UK one of the things that hasn't been said enough on Brexit at all is that the European project is now much, much poorer without Britain without the UK for us in particular but the union as a there was a great YouTube video of Patrick Stewart doing a take off of the amount of life one of the Romans ever done for us and they were making the point that actually the European Bill of Rights originally came from the UK they've been huge contributors I think you need a big powerful Eurosceptic country in there because the European project has been phenomenally successful in certain ways in what it was set up to do which was to stop Europeans sticking pitchforks in each other and it's worked incredibly well and it's worked well economically notwithstanding banking and monetary stuff in recent years part of that is due to the UK now from Ireland's perspective there's only two civil law countries in sorry common law countries us and the UK they're gone or going so that causes a huge problem for us at a bureaucratic level so for example the European directors get written in civil law there's then an army of very clever British bureaucrats who do all the due diligence and translation into common law and my understanding is that our civil servants then essentially do the due diligence on their work and we transpose it in and it comes before committee and committee's kind of not at the EU directors go in we now have a massive skills deficit in terms of taking civil law and bringing it into common law but we're also... there's a huge push for harmonisation there's also a big problem for us that we have lost our closest ally and our only big ally and my understanding is that Britain and Ireland have voted almost identically for decades within Europe one of the things that the UK has largely protected us on as you say is cooperation tax it may be a coincidence but it would be an extraordinary coincidence within 24 hours of the Brexit vote last year the European Commission re-launched the CCC TV I would be astounded if there is no link between those two things now whenever you talk to diplomats from other member states or politicians from other member states they say of course we recognise Ireland's problems of course we recognise the unique issue with Northern Ireland we're very sympathetic and we are going to help you and then they pause and they say we want to talk to you about your cooperation tax though so we need to be very clear that the various things that we are asking of our other 26 member states there is a quid pro quo so all of this special status in Northern Ireland or we'll do this for Ireland or we will maintain the common travel area for Ireland that's not free there is diplomatic capital and political capital being used up so our cooperation tax is far more at risk than it was and of course the way you get it is not to try and change the treaty because the 12.5% is protected by treaty it's the CCC TV and you just undermine it and that will wipe the space because we'd end up with somewhere between I guess a third and a half but here a huge amount of it going out to the big countries where they actually buy this stuff so that is a big problem and I agree with Michael I'll finish on this the European project went too fast for too many people Bertie Ahern when he was giving his speech in the US to the joint houses he gave a second speech to the Harvard Kennedy School and he was talking about Europe and I asked him from the floor I said to him the European constitution the EU constitution it got put forward and it got voted down it looked like it was going to get voted down in other areas and his response was more or less now in power phrasing we saw that and we pretty much changed the title of it and that was a lot more votes now if the European project thinks that it is okay to treat European citizens like that something bad has happened I think there is going to be a push for further integration I think Macron will be big on this Giver Hashtag obviously is big on this and without the UK we have to have a very serious conversation in Ireland about how we maneuver this because we forget sometimes how small we are in this whole thing we forget Euro barometer surveys Ireland sometimes it takes a wee bit of an oddity to agree to various referenda but it is consistently high support in the main for the European project could that change if in the Brexit process some of the red lines for Ireland and now very much a small country without one of its biggest closest brothers in the union do you think that could change on how much of a risk is that as the Brexit process unfolds there is a few things I think the key thing when it comes to Ireland's relationship with the European project is we have to be very very careful when ministers from all parties and none and MEPs go to Brussels or Strasbourg we are very good at painting ourselves as good Europeans who desire to be at the heart of Europe and that is worth while being part of the European project has allowed us to come out with the UK shadow but then when we come back home to Dublin we are very very quick to knock the EU and blame oh we can't do that because Brussels is doing this or you know and our referenda are the exact examples of that oh no we can't be voting for the fiscal to be treated lead to abortion and demand absolutely no relevance in the question of sick but those are the sort of Ireland's that are put and we as a political collective and a media collective don't question that we don't question the easy excuse and I am putting this challenge down to my own ministers in my own party that when they are making a slight against Brussels shortcomings because something will happen on a European level that comes with a massive, massive cost and that cost we see in the UK now years upon years of doing down the EU to the extent that it looked like a sketch led to Brexit by a very very narrow majority fed fuelled on a campaign based on lies but it would be a campaign but now we are at that point so therefore when we are talking about our engagement so Europe we can say we can't always say that we are under threat we are being attacked they are pushing for integration against our will we are all isolated and people who say that Brexit is the time we stick up for ourselves and threaten to leave it's the most ridiculous proposition we can make we threaten to leave Europe if we don't get our way and absolutely agree on everything as Stephen said we need to negotiate heavily we need to get in there and we do it very well and I think the last 12 months at a political and diplomatic level when it wants to on that European level domestically I think we are wanting so therefore when we are looking at the threats and they are coming people will want further integration and people hold my crown up as the person who is going to push further integration nearly as many Eurosceptics will be doing the first round of presidential elections and the first round of pen so you know he is not exactly on a 100% he has a strong mandate in the second round himself he is not even better on an assembly level I don't think there is necessarily going to be this push towards full united states of Europe way too soon it depends on who you are listening to it depends especially on areas around defence and justice and home affairs if you look outside the Irish and UK press there are a lot of people who see Brexit as an opportunity to move that project forward and certainly any time I almost all of the European leaders it was one of the criticisms I have had in the EU immediately after Brexit it was seen as an opportunity by some including John Kelly Johnson the very first press statement EU Army was mentioned Consolidated Corporation tax was mentioned and it is one of the things I find most striking within the European institutions including some MEPs actually it is not just something that we talk about the democratic deficit these are real disconnect I just found it bizarre that so many people very intelligent people who have been around politics for a long time were celebrating the fact the good news that only 35% of French people voted for a fascist that is not really something to be celebrated in my view that is something that should be sending a very stark message to EU leaders that there are still a lot of problems and a lot of disconnect between the people served by the EU from our point of view I do think and I get what Neil said and it is something that I have challenged your ministers saying it is that shower over in Europe for decisions that maybe not them but their predecessors actually signed off in the closed room but I do think sometimes we need to get beyond just our own sound bites we need to box clever and sometimes we need to actually say out loud what our red lines are because sometimes we have as an official government position these nuanced positions and we are expecting the EU to understand what we mean by that is that we are not really happy with this but we are almost afraid to upset anybody I think when we rightly commended those people who have put Ireland into the frame in terms of the third point that is mentioned to remember the first meeting after the actual Brexit vote the first council meeting of the EU 27 went in and championed Scotland didn't actually mention Ireland he was the modern day braveheart going in on behalf of Nicolaus Sgt and the Scottish people rather than actually pointing out even at that early stage that the north of Ireland has every single argument that the Scottish have except that two additional arguments one that is part of a country that was divided and is in the process of a very complicated conflict resolution process I think Stephen made earlier on that every citizen in the north is entitled to Irish and therefore are de facto EU citizens and it was only with the kickback at home here both politically and within the media that the government started to realise that a week into it they still hadn't got the central premise and there has been a guard against upsetting or insulting those people who are whether it be the British government or the DUP for that matter who are on in this case the exact opposite side of us so we need to be upfront with them and say you are on the opposite side of Irish national interest and in this case we are going to have to be articulate in a different position Michael we are going to open it to the floor about 10 or 12 minutes I agree completely with me look at the original round of voting on the French election Fionn was not a strong federalist he was in the middle of the road for European more into my own views the far left guy he was he was positively anti-European and her leadership was positively anti-European so I mean in fact of the four front runners who accounted for 80% plus of the votes only one of them was but the French system actually magnifies the winner to an incredible position and if you look around Europe the fact that Donald Trump was taking his crowbar to Europe and trying to break it up a few months ago is now over, that crisis is over the Dutch elections the Austrian elections and what's going to happen in Germany in my view means that the kind of external threat is over but the mere fact that normality is coming back to Europe should not be interpreted by the federalists as because you're rejecting Trump and because you're rejecting Menachal you're rejecting the pen that you are saying please give us more Europe no matter what one final point when the Irish times last measured Irish views on European attitudes it was in the context of David Cameron going to Europe and the interesting thing is that on all the points in which he was seeking concessions whether he was right or wrong the Irish people supported him two and a half to one on all of the issues that he was concerned about no unlimited integration the Irish people and I think most people in Europe are not on the same wavelength as the small minority in Brussels who are pushing the thing too fast it isn't like a bicycle it isn't something that if it's not going forward it falls flat we should have more confidence in Europe the federalist agenda is not the only agenda for Europe there are plenty of other agendas for Europe and this is why this institution and the Irish media generally should get rid of the Eurosceptic versus the Euro Federalist punctual duty show and should concentrate on the middle ground of Irish politics where most people are located so I'm going to throw it up into the floor Sarah Kerry in regards two points one to Matt I agree very much with Michael's analysis of the north and the polarization and how it does suit Sinn Fein to have that and yes, you were right the Union has voted Brexit because that was an identity issue for them at some point though the penny is going to have to drop with them that the money is going to be a factor and there won't be this endless flow of money from Westminster by constantly talking about the border poll and by bedding down on those identity issues are you not making it harder for them to change their mind when the point comes where they inevitably must change their mind and that there is a responsibility I don't know if Conor McHevitt is still here he can speak to anyone about how the centre did not hold in the north that now that you've won your end of the argument is such you have to bring your people into the centre to make it easier for the DUP to do that U-turn when they need to make it for Michael I agree with a huge amount of what you said especially about that gap between the leaders of Europe and the people but with regard to halting the project surely one of the great solutions and I would follow the work of people like Kevin O'Rourke on this is that the monetary union must be finished that the reason we hate the EU is because they left us right but actually treating it is a legitimate solution to a lot of the problems that we wouldn't have been left holding the can so the definition of that is the completeness well say the monetary and banking union that the next time or here's another one you mentioned defence and of course okay well let me put a scenario to you and I'll wrap it up then so when we hear defence we go oh a European army alright but there are two sides but number one Russian aggression western or say the eastern border Latvia are facing the very real prospect you know of an encouragement and are we going to stand by and say absolutely nothing secondly on defence contracts we're always hearing about how we have problems getting air cover and coast guard cover and if we were able to do a common defence contract and buy helicopters and airplanes cheaper that would be a benefit to us so in one way are you not falling into the same trap that Neil mentioned where we blame the EU for certain things or maybe they could actually be providing a solution so Michael answer to pass the mic back to I don't agree that we first of all the people alter the constitution to say we will not participate in the European defence it isn't simply an option as some people have written it's a positive prohibition we're out and they're not going to change their mind about going in and if we want cheap coast guard helicopters and fishery protection vessels and all the rest of it I have no problem with that but the protection of Latvia is in my view best undertaken by NATO and not by some new thing somewhere in Brussels other than NATO can I just in terms of whether or not we should be talking about a border pole a united iron is the reason I got involved in politics the reason why I developed an interest in it I firmly believe the partition is stumbling back to us as a nation reaching our full potential I believe it's the cause and root of a lot of problems that we face and it's the best solution for us to provide us with the means to get over some of those problems so I actually find that frankly in Sultan when people say it to me you should keep your mouth shut about the issue that you care most about what I do agree is that we have a responsibility and I said this quite clearly I mentioned a big large conference in about past the weekend which unionists were in attendance and which other independent commentators and we were talking about these whole issues and I said and I believe firmly I don't ever expect to get the people who vote for Gregory Campbell to ever vote yes in a poll on Irish unity but what I do expect and what I expect of me and others who support a united iron is to convince them that they may not like the final outcome but they have nothing to fear in terms of their own identity so that's the work that we're doing because we're laying the ground work in my view and we want others to join with us in doing so in setting out the parameters of what a new iron will look like so at the very minimum what we do ask people to vote they know what they're voting for and yet consent is at the heart of everything in the Good Friday room before I pass over to you Partying the same vein as Sarah I wonder about the consensus on the panel that European integration is something to be sorry European integration is something to be warded off and feared and something that the Irish public definitely don't want last opinion poll I saw on the subject which was done late last year suggested that most Irish people do want further European integration and like if you can boil it down to a practical level if you wanted to sell that idea to people to benefit of it if Irish people really felt that they could ring up a motor insurer in Germany or Italy and get car insurance from them or if I knew that my son could apply for a job in France or Germany and his Irish qualifications would be automatically recognised as just as good or if we knew for a fact that Irish bond yields will never go through the roof again because they'll be European bonds there is a big argument to be made for the benefits of further European integration the completion of the single market and I'd just say we shouldn't automatically assume that Irish people don't want that and are close to that argument I think it's probably what Stephen and Neil were speaking about earlier it's a sectoral by sectoral thing there may be areas that they're very happy about but red lines have done up before I go to Emma to go to the editor I wanted to ask Stephen Stephen the point you made about there ain't been nothing for nothing in terms of the trade off and tax I think it's very sort of pertinent and relevant so I'm wondering how and when might or could that be nailed given how complex the whole thing is and nobody has any idea I mean it's a very realistic scenario but how might it come about I don't know how it might come about it's diplomatic ebb and flow and it's political capital and it's side meetings at a European conference or whatever it is so my sense is I haven't been enough I haven't taken part in formal European negotiations so I'd have to say I don't know someone like Michael would have a better idea of exactly how it comes about from the position I'm in it's a general raising of awareness of it it's a general sense of A the stuff you want ain't coming for free there is a quid pro quo for all of this stuff and pretty much the only topic that ever comes up in terms of the quid pro quo is tax and it comes up regularly and politicians diplomats, officials right across the board there's always just a little pause after the we're going to help you out and then you've got to talk about your tax though you know now I think in fairness the previous government has helped that a lot I got into a debate with the Reuters Brussels based journalist on this the other day and he was still kind of making asserting that well it's still very you know it's very fast and loose in Ireland and well actually it's not you know the double Irish loophole has been shut down we're at the forefront of the OECD the BEPS process so I think in fairness the previous government they actually did put several things in place that gave us a little bit of pushback but I do think without one is we are asking for stuff of the EU of our 26 colleagues and you know there is a balance sheet and secondly we have just lost our greatest political ally and a very large political ally in there it's interesting I think after the Apparulian there was a lot of debate as to whether the you know vestiger was it kind of using the Trojan horse of tax avoidance to actually hurl in greater tax harmonisation it's interesting to say that there's many different ways to skin a corporate tax cat and I'll give you the final question before we wrap up I'm going to echo David's point I challenge a lot of Michael's suppositions about the situation it's like as if you're slightly fighting last year's war and indeed the Brexit war because you don't want punching Judy but you use the phrase Euro Federalists I mean for anyone who supports integration I disagree absolutely that the bicycle can just stand still if anything Brexit has shown us that the EU can't just complacently go along and allow this kind of toxic internal debate I think people would support in Ireland further integration obviously in an accountable and transparent level but for other reasons that haven't been mentioned which is the global situation the threat from China the obvious military threat from Russia you say NATO can take care of that in terms of Latvia but more than just a military border regional thing it's a global issue and you mentioned that Trump and that threat has passed his disengagement but if you look at all the people who have voted for Trump they would continue to have that isolationist anti-European anti-EU sensitive withdrawal so I'm a little bit I used to be very Euroskeptic but now suddenly with the British gone I'm kind of with the Germans and the French Europeans who want the project to work and saying we have to build a space and I think a lot of Irish people are more supportive of that than they used to be well just briefly I'm pro-Europe I voted yes in every European referendum but I do not want a single European super state now you say to use the word federalist that I'm being sort of slightly majority of the news in the term there is a federalist movement in Europe it's all around you take a look at it it's not an invention of mine it's not a label that I chose for them it's a label they choose for themselves read Guy Verhofstadt's book on Europe or Europe or Europe now or whatever it is he actually is asserting that Europe must become an empire and he uses the phrase a good empire and I don't want to be part of a European empire dominated by Germany I think we've had that argument and our France and Germany in combination what do you want I want Europe to be first of all I wanted to consolidate itself I mean we've had big problems with the Baltic Serbia and all these places applying for membership we have to say no finally to Turkey for 50 years because they've gone in a different direction now but given that we have this huge big area it does not have to pretend to be the United States of Europe it does not have to create kind of a centralized power because if you create a centralized army if you create a centralized prosecutor if you create centralized court systems and all the rest of it which go with federalism you have to have a democratic government and a democratic government requires a demos who actually share not merely legal values at a constitutional level who actually feel a loyalty who feel that they have something in common the United States had that the Europe and that's why I brought the book on Habsburg and it collapsed and any attempt to create the power structures without the genuine popular support will create something far far worse I'm going to try the words to Neil Yeah I suppose Michael's very right to say that the Federalists surround him as a member of the young European Federalists myself Arrest them man I surround him every day in the chamber and you know as Matt said United Ireland is why he got involved in politics further the power in the dream Europe as corny as it sounds is why I got involved in politics as someone who kind of looked at Ireland where you're in a fall, where you're Celtic where you're Rangers all this stuff you had to look to Europe for something progressive and new and came and you don't get excited looking at the Birdieman or the buildings in Brussels or directives and lawyer linguists pouring things over into common law to get that but you can still say you're a Federalist and at the same time to come back to David's point and say that we don't need to go on full integration just yet the European dream has only been going 60 years I wanted to last 60 more and 60 more after that it's not a rush to get everything done in the next 6 months or the next 6 years and there's no point saying that maybe one day someone will still aspire to the United States of Europe probably not in my lifetime but we have to consolidate Europe and we just start selling Europe Europe has to start selling itself but we also have to have the responsibility that we are going to be pro-European that we don't run to knock everything out of that problem with something that's 99% good otherwise there's going to be no Europe to fight for in 10 years, not in 60 we've promised you a kind of I have a dream session and we're going to wrap it up now on your behalf I would like to thank Neil, Steven, Michael and Shikli Tomatoe who stood in Berlin