 Okay, very good morning to you Anthony here from the desk Friday 24th of July and don't forget to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel If you are watching this briefing there You've got a brand new video coming out for Milan a follow-up to the video. He did about what is algorithmic trading He's put together a video of five points to creating your own algorithm five things to be aware of So really great video. I've really watched it. It's going to be released on Saturday So if you subscribe to the channel hit that Bell notification and you'll get an alert as soon as that goes out otherwise, let's get straight to it and talk about the markets for this morning and Yeah, the the risk off sentiment has continued on from the negative close on Wall Street So overnight the Asia-Pacific session generally lower the main Chinese CSI index was down about 3% Remember that was the main index of the largest companies I was talking about just about a week ago when Chinese markets were just moving Powerful to the upside now science to see a bit of reversal over renewed US China tension So we'll look at that in a bit more detail shortly turns of the heat map The big tech stocks It's almost inevitable is when everyone starts talking about how the proportion or representation as we were talking the briefing yesterday of So few becomes so big We get a bit of a pullback. So Amazon which of course had been on fire recently and At the beginning of the week remember that in the singular day, they were up 8% they were down about 3.7 Similar losses observed elsewhere Microsoft post earnings were down about 4.3 Apple down about four and a half percent. So some of those big tech out performers Those mega cap tech stocks just pulling back a little bit So in regards to the NASDAQ all major US indices were low yesterday It's the first time you've had a downside day of an excessive 1% across three indices in a while and you can see just the Decisive move here from the sell-off breaking out through what was a period of relative consolidation through The prior day is price action on the 22nd and a breakdown through quite a key technical point of previous Resistance and then support on that session on Wednesday And then a break down to the lower bound of the range which we've been trading in the middle of last week So all in all, I mean if you look on the daily continuation chart here on the NASDAQ Now yesterday's setup was was meaningful, but generally speaking on the bigger trend The 21 DMA we are trading just below there at the moment And that was a strong level of support of which could be meaningful here in terms of the price action for today from at least a technical Perspective you can see that area at 10 5.05 was an area of support back on the 7th and and the 8th of July also had a Force break and then retested on the 16th, but acted as good support as well on the 23rd So yesterday's session, but we have gone below there now with the NASDAQ future already down about 77 points going to the European open So it will be quite interesting because any further push to the downside is obviously quite a big level that would come in quite a bit lower down at 10292 in the NASDAQ future a nice level here of resistance and Support and that trend line then that dates back all the way to read April's price activity Don't be keeping a very close eye on so definitely here. There is a possibility then technically for a further move lower I guess going into Friday, and we've got some major data of the week coming out shortly the PMI numbers if they fail to really excite and Given the fact that US data this week from consumer confidence to yesterday's jobless claims have all been on the disappointing side And as we were kind of discussing yesterday about this city group surprise index now having Peter Deaked coming lower as data points now if anything coming out on the downside rather than this String of upside surprises we'd have for such a long period a little bit of profit taking then the NASDAQ I don't think is wholly that surprising That would be a big level though if we get down to challenge there if that does materialize today But all in all I think a little bit of a pullback and that what we have seen through the second half this week after We hit all-time highs. I don't think is Hugely surprising could we see some more downside down to those lower level targets? I think perhaps we could and that could indeed happen today, but you know looking at the S&P on a on a daily continuation Again similar to the NASDAQ there's a really key level here on any pullback that I'd be particularly interested in watching today And that's around that 3200 or 30 30 196 here You can see that that area where during the mid part of July going really from the 15th through to the 20th That out such a strong level of support. So if we did remain under some pressure, that's not too far away We've already got to go about another 20 points here in the S&P to get to that area So if we do see continuation of yesterday's kind of risk of sentiment keep an eye on that around that 3200 3196 in the NASDAQ if we get a Simultaneous break with the NASDAQ on those on that longer term kind of trend channel then things could get a bit Bit spicy going into the weekend and certainly then you know the one trade that probably is a winner in either direction Is gold because it's already been moving higher with relative calm But then it just gets another You know kick higher when we get this risk off trade as well so such a good asset that's played out well recently and We hit 1900 in the futures Yesterday and we're not that far off dead of the all-time high sitting just 20 bucks above that level The all-time high water the 1900 came late in yesterday afternoon when things really got fired up Shortly after the comics open and in silver taking a bit of a breather From the the rapid gains that have been seen throughout this week what near 20% And so that trend line which we were talking about a briefing yesterday You can see when it broke quite a severe move lower at the time and then we found Respectively some resistance back at the same point So quite a lot of people obviously watching around these same levels And then we've we've just consolidated if anything At around the 22 and a half being the floor to some of the recent price activity here for silver So that also worth keeping now again silver comparative to gold A little bit more volatile So you just need to be mindful of that if you're trading that asset It's the technical levels will be quite key to see some quite rapid movements from point A to point B As speculative traders have been That's been one of the main focal points that they've been locking in on this week has been the price of silver So let's run through some of the headlines then And going to start off with the the situation here overnight this has come of course After that move we saw from the US earlier in the week So China has come out and ordered the US to close the Qingdu Consulate in its retaliation move That after the US forced closure of the Chinese mission in Houston We had Donald Trump speak overnight talking about the China trade deal means much less to him now and the secretary of state Michael Pompeo was saying some pretty inflammatory comments in reference to China as well last night So this is the latest and certainly it just helps Further fuel Why I think more of anything is a little bit of profit-taking on this run-up that we've had in markets in the first half of this week You just have a little bit of a catalyst then to trigger To kind of remove all some of those short-term longs that were chasing that market hire. So Where do we go from here with this issue? I think this is probably about the most we'll hear of it for this week I can't really see too much more in the way of further escalation at this point The one thing of course that has been happening I'm going to talk about in a second is the COVID situation in America is getting worse and there has been I think quite clear Identifiable trend between the worst that COVID gets domestically the more Veminous the US attack on China becomes in order to kind of frame the narrative that it's China's fault and to I guess discount any Accountability for for the situation as it's developing at the moment in America The response then from China you probably remember the Global Times editor who she's in He's talked about Pompeo specifically And basically taken a few pop shots of his own and then also been talking about this headline that we've had this morning In regards to this kind of reciprocal principle and so on The other thing of course though it was in focus yesterday was this this jobless situation This does lead me to enter a bit of a wider discussion point about the US economy and its economic recovery or at least its trajectory that it may or might have been on and This did cause a bit of interest yesterday The jobless claims largely for many weeks have been a little bit of a non-event But it was the first Basically the first uptick in US jobless claims We've had since March and March of course is when we had this is massive spike up to around 6.6 million But generally speaking after that initial knee-jerk reaction to the pandemic Statist and then the full lockdown that happened during latter part of March and and through the month of April The jobless claims have been decreasing albeit a decelerating rate However, a bit of an uptick yesterday just made people a little bit nervous and why does it make people nervous? Well, don't forget as well. We've got these talks on going throughout the entire week With the US GOP stimulus bill likely will not be released now until Monday Amid disagreements over jobless benefits and other issues. So a lot of people of course Watching this closely because Trump has blamed Democrats for scuttling his idea for a payroll tax cut Other areas of contention of course remain around this expanded unemployment benefit scheme Which provides around additional six hundred dollars a week a cushion for out-of-work Americans And that is due to expire of course at the end of the month on July 31st So again this exploration of some of these programs just making markets as well as a little apprehensive I would say though that this is for me politically. I wouldn't be too surprised by this This is always, you know, although these deadlines The timeline is diminishing. This is just a natural order of things of compromise tending to come right the the last minute but certainly if it didn't that does raise some complications perhaps about the the economic recovery in the US and all of this of course is coming admit an ongoing COVID situation This is the latest looking at those kind of key hotspots California, Texas, Florida, and Arizona as you can see a little bit different from the last time I did bring up this graphic. We are somewhat leveling out or at least a trajectory of increases is Decelerating slightly from the more rapid steeper trajectory. We were on just a week or two ago But a few things to show you on this front. Let me just bring a shot into screen and make it a bit bigger This one here is looking at a few different things. We've got number of positive cases So new positive cases now are a new high 66,870 and we've also got Hospitalizations at a new high in the US and deaths the higher since the 5th of June as well at the moment looking on a seven-day average So, you know, it's definitely One of those things here where if you think about the COVID situation if you think about the the exploration and the political difficulties of getting further stimulus to support the economy At the moment then this could all have a great influence on this shape or Almost this idea of a double dip implications for the US economy So there's definitely some reason for the movement. I think that we saw yesterday You throw in the factor of markets, you know, if you remember on the 13th of this month That was when the markets have these episodes of getting super overextended that was that day when You know Tesla was up some 20% in just a single day. It's almost like you get these these catalyst moments That are really symbolic almost for the initiation of profit-taking Tesla would have been one there and you know earlier this week with Amazon up 8% And then these phenomenal increases and we hit record highs that that retested the record high on the NASDAQ midweek It's almost like right. Yep. That's a time to take just a little bit off the table. They're medium term Horizon I don't think it's right. This is this is the commencement of a significant correction in the US equity markets I don't think that is the case Not yet, but certainly is there could there be a potential for some downside today? I think possibly I would not would not be too surprised if that was going to materialize But again those key levels I suggested in the US indices are going to be the ones to watch The other thing of course was earnings We did have Intel aftermarket last night and they basically warned on production delay Ways that further weighed on kind of negative sentiment that was increasing last night I'll look at their shares in a second, but the the seven manometer chip process Very specific for the company is now trending around 12 months below its All behind its intended target for for its rollout and what happened to Intel shares? Well, they got absolutely Hammered in aftermarket trade. You can see them here. They're trading at 54. They were down 10.6% but one companies Failings is another company's game and given the space of which Intel operate in is a fairly small Sector in this kind of chip-making environment. Well, one of their biggest competitors AMD They were up about 8% in aftermarket again. No fault of their own This was just on the back of the coming out of Intel and one of their major competitors benefiting in that situation On the earnings front just to be aware of you do have a couple Pre-open that are worth keeping an eye on visa and American Express visas around 5% of the Dow in terms of a market capitalization Amex is about two and a half percent. So, you know, good seven and a half percent of Dow coming out pre-market honey. Well shumma Jay also Very sizable in terms of market cap So few things to keep an eye on there as well and then on the weather front for any energy traders just been keeping an eye on the NHC website because of Tropical storm Hannah, which currently is close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico If I just bring up this chart Hannah is forecast to strengthen and is expected to bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the Texan coast Where a tropical storm warning is effect is in effect understanding is that a number of Facilities there from oil majors and refiners are on standby at the moment Is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana southern, Texas and northern Mexico However, if you actually look at the trajectory here on the mapping and the projected direction and timings Should not have too much of an influence. It's kind of just missing some of the key critical areas within that Particular location, but definitely worth just keeping a half an eye on perhaps But again should not really be too much of an issue Throughout the rest of the day That is pretty much the main bulk of the news the main thing is now forward-looking For the PMIs now we have had some UK data out this morning The UK retail sales month-to-month came in at 13.9 percent above the expected 8 percent But sterling really hasn't reacted a great deal if anything at all to that number remember Brexit We've been talking about a lot of political Kind of elements now that are being factored in and certainly a bit of a divergence on the fundamental perspective Comparative to the euro solid performance this week Euro still trading in excess of that 116 mark for the PMIs though These will be interesting and you know could this fan the flames if you like of some of that brewing negative sentiment We saw develop yesterday Because what's quite interesting is we got the French and the German PMIs this morning of course followed up by the UK at 9 30 and most of these readings are Anticipated to bounce back into expansionary territory after being highly depressed Amidst that kind of major April slight bounce back in May into these now June and this is being the July readings So if they remain Suppressed and these numbers disappoint again that could be quite interesting because it just comes at a point where You know sentiment generally is a little bit fragile this morning. So for the French numbers They're expected to be pretty solid actually fifty three point two for manufacturing fifty two point three for the Services number both would be particularly on the service side quite a strong improvement the analysts are anticipating on the German front Manufacturing still expected to remain in contraction But about from around forty five point two to roughly around forty eight is the consensus services moving back above the fifty marker and then in the UK Manufacturing expected at fifty two from fifty one spot one or also from fifty spot one and the services in the UK Obviously, though the more important metric expected to move back up to fifty one point five from forty seven point one The US that number also will be coming out alongside new home sales and the Baker use rig count for the main releases in the US afternoon This is expected manufacturing to bounce again to fifty one point five and services to fifty one both having been below fifty before so I think it'd be quite telling Just from almost a symbolic point of view because we're right on that tipping point now on that key area of being expansion or contraction so If we get a disappointment, it will just be interested to see if we get a bit of a retest on those lower levels again If we get out performance talking the other side of the book that say the numbers in Europe Particularly from a German perspective and France on the service side if they come out and really bust on the upside Expectations in a positive fashion All the more reason then for a little bit of further elevation in the euro currency And if that comes in the context then of the US number being weak Then you might see a further breakout in a euro on the upside today to finish the week on a really firm footing for the currency pair So, you know few things to think about All right, that is it nothing much more else for me to add So remember again, if I could kindly ask you to subscribe to the channel. We really appreciate your support for growing our community Feel free to engage leave comments always happy the team and I to help where we can and as I said Milan's got a new video One of our tech guys coming out talking about algorithmic trading on Saturday. So hopefully you'll enjoy that And I wish you a fantastic weekend. All right. Take care