 Hello and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday, the 1st of July 2019. At the time has just gone 945 British summer time. First things first, happy Canada Day to any Canadian viewers out there. Today's the 1st of July, so today is Canada Day. Looking back at the events in Japan over the weekend, we've had a quite a decent start to the European equity market this weekend, this Monday on the back of the events of the weekend. Trade relationships between the US and China seem to have proved, haven't proved somewhat. Both sides agreed not to increase further tariffs on each other, although President Trump said he's in no hurry to reduce the tariffs that are already in place on Chinese goods. There seems to be a slight loosening of the ban on US companies dealing with Huawei, the Chinese tech company. So that's seen as another step in the right direction. And basically, we've had a large push higher in Asian equity markets overnight on the back of the G20 update, and that has spilled over to the session here in Asia. We've also had a meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong-un of North Korea, the first sitting of US President to visit North Korea, so that is seen as another kind of step in the right direction for political stability in that region. Despite the fact that we've had disappointing, not overly impressive manufacturing numbers, non-manufacturing, and cash in manufacturing figures out of China over the weekend, that seems to have have been overridden by the fact that trade tensions between the US and China seem to have decreased ever so slightly. But it is worth pointing out, there are some major sticking points, particularly in relation to intellectual property protection. You know, as a way of smooth things over, the Chinese government committed to purchasing more agricultural vehicles, agricultural machinery from the United States. But essentially, there are no amount of tractors and compound harvesters that China can buy that are going to actually ignore the fact that the US are majorly concerned about intellectual property protection over in China. I'll take a quick look now at the week ahead calendar, so we can have a look at some of the major events of the week, and then we can look at some of the major markets as we go on. So this morning, we've had a raft of manufacturing PMI numbers broadly speaking out of Europe. We've had disappointing numbers from the UK, and they've been poor numbers from Italy and Germany as well. Tomorrow, we have an industry decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. We also have the OPEC meeting runs for a couple of days, so the major old producers are meeting and are meeting, and they're tipped to extend the existing production costs that are in place. This, by the way, the week ahead article can be found on our platform, cmcmarkets.com, under news and analysis, and you'll find the week ahead article. On Wednesday, we have the very different services numbers coming out from major economies around the world. On Wednesday, we have figures out from Sainsbury, the British supermarket retailer. On Wednesday, we have full-year figures on Purple Bricks. On Thursday, we have full-year figures from Superdry. On Friday, international consolidated airlines have the June traffic figures, and on Friday, we have the all-important US non-farm payrolls report, and this is often seen as the most important economic indicator of the month. Please keep an eye out for the kind of full details of the report, and not only the headline figure, but also the unemployment rate, and more importantly, what's becoming more important to keep an eye on is the wage growth rate. We're actually going to be holding a live non-farm payrolls webinar event on that particular day, covering the numbers and the market reaction. If you go to cmcmarkets.com and under learn, under webinars and events, you will see it here on the 5th of July. So like I was saying, global equity markets have had a decent move to the upside on the back of the G20 meeting. Starting off the FTSE 100, we can see that the market's been in a solid trend, upward trend for basically the last six months. The FTSE 100 has pushed on higher here this morning, even at levels not seen since late April. So I'll give an indication of how bullish things are looking, and if you continue to press on higher from here, should we take out the upper highs? We could be looking at this area here, 11 knots seen since late September, and that is 7,558. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at heading up towards 7,600. I want to talk about this blue line here, the fifth day moving average, which comes to the play at 7,345. And it's quite important metric to keep on our fore, because we can see here on a few occasions in recent weeks and months, metric acted as support throughout June. And then that metric, well, just north of it, acted as resistance in May. So we've seen a lot of movement in around that area. So it's possible if the market does manage to have a drift lower, the currency support come into play in around 7,400, or perhaps from the fifth day moving average itself in 7,345. And even if you drop below that, support could be found from this yellow line here, the 180 moving average, we can see that managed to act as support on a few occasions in the last few months. And that comes into play in at 7,293. But the fifth day moving average is pretty irrelevant because the FTSE is holding above its fifth day moving average. And we'll see who would take a look at the DAX, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500. They're all holding firmly above their relative 50, their respective rather 58 moving averages. So we could take a look now on the DAX at your market, similar situation whereby the DAX has been a solid upward trend for the last six months that the highest here of today have come to be taken up the highs of early May. We back to levels not seen really since the back end of 2018. So given the indication of how bullish the DAX has been, so if we continue to press on higher from here, we could be continue to press on higher from this area. We could be looking at targeting this area here in around 12,740. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at targeting this area here last seen in July last year in around 12,887. If you do see a move to the downside of the DAX, this region here in around 12,400 might act as support or possibly this blue line here, the 50 moving average, which comes into play at 12,156. Like with the FTSE 500, I just saw a moment ago. There's been a few occasions in recent weeks and months where the DAX's 50 moving average did provide support. And once again, if a metric is applied, it has been irrelevant in the past. It makes this more likely it will be so in the future. Obviously, there are no guarantees. So looking at the Dow Jones, the Dow Jones after having by a large, large rally to our 2019 had a fairly size of a correction between April and early June. But you notice a steady move to the upside and we are expecting to be pressing on higher once the cash session in New York gets underway. We can see that the Dow Jones is comfortably above its 200 moving out, sorry, 50 moving average, this blue line here, which comes into play just north of 26,000. And essentially, while we hold above that metric, it's likely we could see further gains coming in from here. So if we do let the press hire on the Dow Jones, we could be looking at how to back up towards in around the highs of late September last year, not too far away from in around the kind of 26,950 there about smirk. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking heading up towards the psychology port and 27,000. It's only really if you have a slice of a break below this this area here, the fifth of the moving average, just north of 26,000. Because then we'd be you know, be concerned that the the bullish trend has come to an end and we could see further move to the downside. We could see support coming in around the kind of 25,600 mark coming to play with this trend line comes into which this trend line comes into play. Take a look now at the S&P 500. So the S&P 500, as you can see here, has gapped higher over the weekends on the back of the optimism of the G20. We're currently the S&P 500 could actually well open could print an interday all time high was cast trading gets underway, but that isn't for a few hours yet. So the sentiment is clearly bullish in relation to US equities. And if you continue to get a press on higher from here on the S&P 500, we're currently expecting the cash market to open at 2972. If you need to press on higher from here, we could be looking directly to the psychology port and 3000 mark. Any moves to the downside and the S&P 500 may attract new buyers buying on the dip has been a popular strategy in the last few weeks and truck wider 2019 period. So at the market does turn lower support could be both in this area here in around 2,910, 2,900 or possibly even from this blue line here, the fifth movie average, which comes into play at 2,881. And the reason why I was going to mentioning the fifth movie average and its importance on the FTSE 100 video or a chart was because down theory tells us that the averages must confirm each other. And we've now seen FTSE 100, the DAX, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 all come to be above their respective 50 day moving averages. And you could be more if you're buying it, if you're if the pointless markets are above their respective 50 movie averages and while all markets are above their respective 50 movie averages, the FTSE, the DAX, the Dow, the S&P, you can be more confident that the wider bullish trend is going to continue. And obviously there are no guarantees, but just makes the makes the wider bullish move more likely. So we're to kind of show you the flip side of the coin. We've had a reversal on some of the kind of flight equality assets. So last week we saw gold print a six, sorry, sorry, not last week, but yeah, actually yes, it was last week, I apologize. Last week we saw gold print its highest level in over six years. It got up to in around 1439. But we have seen that the metal drift back a bit, drift back a bit back in the last week. And in light of the light of the news from the US China trade talks over the weekend, we have seen the metal gap lower. So the metal has pushed to the downside. It's been a steady decline in positive momentum. So we could see the gold market, if we do break below 1382, if we do drop below this area here, we could see a further move to the downside and the gold down possibly as low as 1360 or perhaps even down at this area here in around 1350, 1345. The wider upward trend and the fact that we had a six year high was going to suggest that, you know, the market is quite bullish and it is worth noting that the gold market rally is something in around the region of about 9% in the month of June, 9 or 10% in the month of June. So it was a major move to the upside. So we might see the wider upward trend continue but at a less aggressive pace. So we might pull back down to what possibly was going to 1360 before things mellow out and potentially look to kind of press on higher again. So if the wider upward trend does continue, resistance could be coming to play in around 1410 or perhaps at the recent high in around 1439. And then if you go beyond that, we could be looking at heading back up towards the 1485 region this year here. Levels not really seen since about since late April 2013. We talked about how the major all producers OPEC and some of the some of the some of the all producers that are in OPEC put off and work online with OPEC offer, you know, the likes of Russia often refer to as you know, the OPEC plus alliance or OPEX plus. So take a look at what's going on on the oil market. And try to look at the oil is kind of move the same direction as equity. So oil is definitely a parameter for the strength of the global economy. The global economy is weakening, perception of demand falls off and we see weakness of the oil price. But take a look here at Brent, we can see that that that there's a this region here in around just kind of on $61 a barrel in around kind of 60 30 as actually a fairly decent floor. And we haven't seen the oil market push on higher. In fact, we've recently hit a level not seen basis since the end of May. We're coming up against the eternity we will be averaged this red line here, which comes to play at 60s in around 67 40. And if you can press on higher from here on break on a break through at all, we communicate are going to get a $69 a barrel and then beyond that you could take it up towards this year here in at 70 spot 63. If you if the Brent market does manage to turn over on itself again, we could be looking at a back down towards $63 a barrel and then below that we could be looking at testing the $60 area. Like I said, we've only heard from Russia and Saudi Arabia and it looks like we could have the existing production cuts extended for about six six to nine months. And then I still heard nine months is looking at more likely of the two. So similar situation here on WTI, the market has found a decent floor around the kind of 50 spot 50 region or $51 region here. If you continue to press on higher from here and hold above the tour the movie average, which comes to play at 50 58 spot 44, we could be looking at pressing on higher and heading back up toward this area here in around 64. We can see in a few occasions as this is our nation in around $64 a barrel on WTI to keep that area in terms of upside move. If you do drop back below the kind of 57 region here, we could be heading back down towards this area here in around 54 spot 75 or down as low as 54. Take a look at the euro versus US dollar. So the wider view has been very much to the downside, but we did see a fair we did see the euro dollar since late May third stage a fairly decent comeback. In fact, only last week levels not seen since the middle of March. So it's fairly quite bullish in terms of the rebound. But you can see here that the market has managed to actually fall back towards the tour to movie average. And we're currently trading probably a bit below that. And if we if we can hope if we can, while we hold below the tour to movie average, it's likely that the wider downward trend that that's been in place for a number of months is going to continue. And we can be looking any back down towards 113. And if you move below that could take us back down toward this year here south of 112. And if you have a break below that, it could take us back down towards one spot 1110. If you do manage to get a press on higher, take out this high here in around one spot 1412. If you press on higher from there, we could be looking at targeting the the the mid mid-march highs of in around one spot 1448. And if you go beyond that, we could make a target of the 115 region. Last you know, take a look at the pound versus a US dollar. So the the pound versus the US dollar has been a fairly obvious downward trend basically for the last over months by series of lower lows and lower highs. There was a move back there was a press higher in late June, but the market has seen the kind of trend lower yet again. Essentially, while we can hold south of this area here in one spot 28, it's likely that the kind of wider negative trend is going to continue to be a play. And if you do move lower from here, we could be looking at heading back down towards 126. And if you take out the recent the lows of the middle of June in at one spot 2506, we could be looking at targeting this area here, the lows of December last year in at one spot 2476. It's only really if you have a size of break north of 128. Because then we look heading back up towards this red line here, the truly moving average, which comes into play at one spot 2918. And I got my move beyond beyond that could take us up to the psychological important one 30 mark. That's all for me this week. If you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos, please feel free to do a review of reviews. Thank you very much.