 Good morning, everyone. My name is Tom Sanderson Code director of the transnational threats project here at CSIS Welcome for those of you first time in our building. Welcome to our new place for Super meetings and gatherings of all sorts We have emergency exits up the staircase and also on the left there. There are two exits emergency exits two doors that go out to the alleyway In case anything Okay, absolutely. I'll leave I'll leave right behind these two Anyways up when you speak this morning, please make sure you use your microphone because we are webcasting the event We are in the process of hosting a series of events Coming out of our work on the Middle East and North Africa region for the past three years We've been conducting a three-phase study called militancy and the arc of instability looking at South Asia Completed about three years ago the Middle East North Africa, which we completed with our Code directors from the Middle East program here And we're doing a spin-off from that study now looking at foreign fighters in the region and phase three Which will be with our Africa team some of whom are here today will be on Africa's to hell And also with a strong connection to Libya, which is one of the reasons why we are having today's discussion Not only because Libya is in a state of chaos right now But because as we look at the African Sahel and the Milton groups and the trafficking that goes on there and the General instability we know there's a direct connection to Libya for this So we want to begin examining that we will have more events on this over the next few months So please stay tuned for that We'll have a visitor from the White House come over from the National Security Council to discuss the Levant We'll have former intelligence officials and diplomats come in to discuss Libya again But right now we have Najla Mangush and Hunter Keith to discuss this They have superb experience in Libya and in the region generally speaking Hunter is in Jordan and Libya in Egypt for many years and With the Office of Transition Initiatives and then more recently with development alternatives in Libya And Najla is from Benghazi, correct? Okay, and it's been spent most of her life there All as well as the UK and now is in school in the United States and I'll leave it to them to add any other Points of interest about their background, but I've been impressed with my last few months with hunters We've gotten to know each other Through some work and I can tell you very high value input that you'll hear today and Najla being from Libya and given her academic background is likely to provide just as good a content I'm looking forward to the discussion So we'll have Hunter go first for 10 or so minutes then Najla will go and I think we have some slides for Najla And then I'll have a series of questions then we'll open it up Please identify yourself and your organization and any relevant background and please make the questions brief Or the statement very very brief I know people just can't avoid making a statement, but please please keep all that brief because we have now about 80 minutes to go So with that I'll turn it over to Hunter Hunter. Thank you very much for joining us Let me start by just saying a couple of things first on the on the positive I want to say how appreciative I am for the Collegial relationship that I've had with mr. Sanderson and his whole team here at CSIS It's been a remarkable six months of activity Since I started participating back in October and I just think the world of the of the work that the organization is doing I also want to say how Honored I feel to be here with Najla Mungouche who is an old friend of mine from Benghazi Nudla has done That was that was a terrible way to phrase that Nudla has done extraordinary things for for her country for her city and Now she's doing extraordinary things I think for herself and for her family here in the United States and it's wonderful that she's been able to come with her two lovely daughters to to Contribute academically and At the at the university where she's studying here in Virginia The slightly less positive thing that I'll say at the outset is that I Motivated these days In in what I what I would call a continuing interest in Libya, although I left the country About this time last year and ceased being a resident But I motivated these days by what I think is an appalling lack of specificity When it comes to our identification and discussion of those groups in the country that have a meaningful impact on its future And also an appalling lack of discernment when it comes to the motivations that those groups have and those individuals have As they compete for influence and other other kinds of resources There needs to be a much a much better I think discussion of how exactly Libya has been evolving over the last three years and how it will continue to evolve in the Near future. I'm not sure that I can give every answer today about the the the exact profile of different actors and groups today in the country because I do think that One's distance from the country hinders one from from making those kinds of judgments and descriptions But I'll I'll do my best and I'm sure Nujla will do much better but there there I think that this is a symptom really of of I Wouldn't say a failed engagement strategy because I think that many parts of our strategy in Libya or our engagement there have been positive But it is an unfortunate reality in 2015 That we do not have an embassy there that many many countries do not have embassies there and that more than that we have We've seen a broader disengagement of the journalistic class and others who would who would be in a position to provide us With with meaningful information, but that said Let me get into some of the questions that were posed to me by the team here at CSIS I think very very rightly they they focused on On what we can do to know more about the political context that exists today and where it might go What we understand to be the the sort of broad Outlines of violent extremism in Libya and then some of the more specific natures of different organizations that we would put into that category and also What both of those? trends say and and mean for the broader security environment in in the region When it comes to where we are today in Libya, I like to talk about the The various conflicts that have existed in the country since the revolution by dividing the period of time that we've that we deal with into two main Components and in the first phase, I think we the I'm sorry the 2011 revolution and in in Libya The first phase I think was defined and extended up through 2013 middle to late 2013 and was defined by what were largely backward-looking conflicts the remnants of a revolution that still had a Fair number of regime supporters present in the country and if they weren't present they were certainly believed to be present by many of the many of the security actors in the country at the at the In the immediate post-revolutionary phase and in that phase of conflict There was I would say defined largely by a sense of optimism that the various competing actors in the security sector in particular But also in the political arena They they looked out at the challenge of building a new state from from a perspective of optimism mainly because I think people during that time Felt like the state had enough resources at its disposal that it would eventually be able to make all the competing claims to Influence and resources whole in the in the fullness of time and So that was a very that was a very constructive phase. I think there were problems, but what we saw in terms of Demilitarization of certain actors that came out of the revolution as well as a number of different political Compromises that were very important for stability during that period We had a we looked at a very positive context at the time and in 2013 particularly in late 2013 the phase shifted to the conflict phase I think shifted to one where people were no longer as Confident that the state would be able to divide up resources fairly or at least in the ways that various groups Hope that they would be divided up Security sector actors became far more politicized And the conflicts themselves were far more open-ended people and arm groups in particular We're concerned about their future roles in the country and the level of influence that they might be able to obtain and so the what we had then in 2014 with the the the clashes and Tripoli And now what we have in terms of a highly polarized Factionalized country and and set of institutions and actors inside of it Is something of an entirely different nature and something that I think is far more concerning? As you talk about the you know what happens today, I think it's important to To sort of take as units of analysis if I can if I can use that term without Without causing too much laughter But to take as as your units of analysis the the political the security sector and the development tracks In the beginning Immediately following the revolution. I think we had a very very good very close Correspondence between those three different tracks you saw I think a gradual coalition of political interests even as Two very different political groupings mainly The to Halif and the Adelao of a nut Parties even even while those parties express very different. I think objectives in the end they were They fully believed in the state-building project and they were willing partners with one another and making institutions Making institutions respond to a new kind of political reality in Libya That went along with I think a lot of a lot of confidence if not actual Progress on the ground but a lot of confidence in the development agenda that the state had at the time There was a budget surplus People felt that there was enough money coming out of the oil sector To to do very many great things in the country with respect to infrastructure and services And so there was a great deal of confidence there and the ministries in Tripoli as well as some of the local units of government around the country I think we're working again with that sense of optimism that they could make Development happen in ways that it had never happened before and then in the security sector it was fascinating to watch how immediately after a massive Revolution involving thousands of people and and quite a lot of violence by summer of 2012 and Nudgeley you can say later if you agree with this but by summer of 2012 it was remarkable to see that Very many of the armed groups had stowed away their arms and the and the and the daily sort of ostensible presence of military groups in the streets Went away for the most part All of that is different now We've those whereas those things were in phase back in 2011 2012 They become wildly out of phase today. So for example the the the sort of Marrying of politics and security Has come apart completely to the extent that you can describe political movements still active today in Libya if you go back to Talking about the Tahalaf and the Adela Wabanat movements. These would be broadly speaking the liberal and The more conservative movements in the political arena those movements have fallen very very deep into obscurity as the security actors in places like Tripoli Benghazi serat and others have risen to prominence and So when you when you try to think about how a dialogue process for for example might bring those things back into phase It's very very difficult to imagine progress in Morocco. For example this week when you have parties who who are represented on Two different governing councils the GNC and the and the House of Representatives Those parties are no longer possessed of the same kind of influence over the armed actors in places like Tripoli and Benghazi Misrata and others and so their capacity to do a deal is actually is actually much lower and meanwhile the the idea that the country might be able to Move itself forward or move these agreements forward using as as pieces of influence that a development agenda that I think hope is is very very diminished in In 2015 as well only because we've seen the total collapse of institutions capable of of using Libya's considerable resources to make differences in in terms of infrastructure and services So so the idea that you could recreate the same sense of optimism and teamwork that existed in 2011 2012 is I think a very a very distant one and it It is very difficult for me to sit here today and wonder how all of this might be put back together and into You know a Credible way forward. We I would enjoy talking more about exactly what is happening today in terms of negotiations in in Morocco in Places like Algeria and others But basically I feel like we're dealing with a problem now that is is going to be very difficult to solve using The same sets of institutions and actors that we've been dealing with for the last two or three years you Move to the side a little and take the question of violent extremism As as a sort of subset of the conflict that exists today in the in the political space and also in the security space It's interesting to see exactly how Libya represents it I would say a slightly different profile when compared to other countries in the region Where where those violent extremist groups are concerned? No question we've had a problem of extremism in Libya since the very conclusion of the revolution and and the The attack on the American embassy or the American consulate in Benghazi is certainly The the most prominent example of how that extremism had manifested up till that time But it's very difficult to see The major correspondences I think between the organizations like on South Australia and Libya and how they The their path forward might resemble or not resemble what we see happening in Syria and Iraq for example with with the ISIS movement The the conflict that has come out into 2015 is one that is still dominated I think by organizations competing claims to legitimacy across the country and That includes violent extremist organizations or organizations that we might call violent extremists Answer I'll show you being the most prominent among them, but others like obviously in Martyrs Brigade the Libyan Islamic army and Darna and now to some extent the the organizations that have aligned themselves with ISIS We might take those organizations insert and Darna that have aligned themselves with ISIS as exceptions But the the broader movement I think if you include on Sarashtraia and and some of the smaller organizations is one that still tries to appeal daily to to everyday citizens as legitimate as legitimate political actors and so the the the way forward I think in in In terms of violent extremism in Libya will be one dominated by a kind of ebb and flow of these organizations ability to bring local populations over to their side. It will not I think be It will not be the the the problem of violent extremism will not be one dominated by by ISIS ISIS like groups if only because those groups will have a very hard time in Most cities around the country bringing over people to their side and and and and bringing them over in a in a in a political sense I would say in particular so we as I think I Think as we look at organizations like on Sarashtraia. We really have to look at them as as Problems that that extend out of the lack of services and infrastructure that is being provided by the state in places like Benghazi and if those problems can be addressed reasonably in the future by a Unified government of some kind. I think that we'll see you know a dramatic reduction in the influence of those kinds of organizations across the country If we talk about ISIS in particular I think I the advent of ISIS surprised us all It it is no surprise perhaps that ISIS appeared first in places like cert and Darna which were so far from the the reach of central institutions and and and so long abandoned by any form of formal security Following the revolution the fact that we've seen I think We've seen an internationalizing you know attempt in places like cert the appearance of Sheikh Ben Ali from from Bahrain who is a leading ISIS theologian There insert a few weeks ago is trying to rustle up sort of local local recruits is something that would suggest You know that that ISIS really does have a play in the country Whether or not that play is something that can survive The attention of militia forces in Misrata. I think is is somewhat questionable we've seen Debates in Misrata over the last couple of weeks swirl around whether or not they need to can they need to sort of maintain the The presence that they have in Tripoli and in the south and to some extent Benghazi or whether they should turn their attention to organizations like ISIS Insert and the results of those debates has been To a large extent that that the attention should be turned to the problem of of ISIS and a more virulent strain of violent extremism I think that's encouraging But I think that the central problem it raises is one of you know, how We all as an international community and how Libyans themselves define Those organizations in Misrata that that are driving most of this most of this fight in in places like cert if those organizations are considered as by all of us in the international community and locally as as Ultimately part of a future Libyan state and and and constructive elements in at least part of the security Framework in Libya today, then I think we'll see a successful pushback against organizations like ISIS if they continue to be sort of marginalized in the in the state building process going forward and if if the international community can't come to terms with what a more conservative although not by any means extremist strain of Islamism in these organizations If we cannot come to terms with how that fits into a state going forward Then I think there's going to be there will be many problems in in manifesting a large enough Coherent enough push against ISIS to really overcome the problem So I'll leave it at that. I'll let Najla talk and fill in I think Some of the some of the questions that are more socially relevant and and maybe talk a little bit about Benghazi too and where it sits today Thank you hunter Thank you hunter Thank you Thomas for this opportunity as you mentioned my name is Najla mungouche originally from Libya Benghazi and I Just came here to the US 2013 so I've been part of the conflict and we work together in different activities with hunter in the civil society and So I think I'm gonna focus more about Just highlight the history of Libya Try to just focus in specific drivers for that conflict because the importance of highlighting or the those Indicators actually to understand why we have this current crisis now at Libya So I'm gonna go. I don't know how I'm gonna do that. I'm sitting but So Here as you see the slides, I'm gonna just very fast go and try to analyze some drivers in the Libyan conflict To just have initial thought ideas about the history of Libya So what are the indicators as I mentioned that we're present during the early days in the Libyan revolution that we could prevent actually from this current crisis Here is a very complicated map, but It's really make a lot of sense when you look to the so here actually in the green Where we have this actual dynamics the legacy of dictatorship and colonizations for a long time We have 42 years from dictatorship before that we have Colonizations Italian colonization the bridge before that we have the Turkish So really we have a long history of colonizations And then we have this short period of the Kingdom era and then we have a dictatorship Gaddafi for 42 years One of the five drivers actually we have political vacuum Gaddafi loyalty fragile institution lack of power sharing and evolutions of weak security injustice and When you see to those drivers actually they overlap and they actually, you know interconnect together It's so difficult actually when you see what kind of problems that we have now And actually we have even since the revolution started so the revolution when it started in February 2011 Was actually sparked and make those drivers more obvious to the people But we during that time which really interesting. We wasn't actually aware about what's going on with we was really Revolution was the revolution of people we were was optimistic We were trying actually to work as a civil society, but we ignore all that issues that we already have And So I'm gonna just highlight very quick the lack of power sharing and political vacuum and also the security because I feel Three of them so important and I feel those the reasons actually for the global You know tourism and extremist that we have now Libya So for example from the early days we have execution From for specific groups and if you remember Hunter like the NTC from the beginning was the idea We want to work with specific people who will work trust which is really understandable But that's mentality actually keep they they they dealt with the same mentality until today Where they exclude some groups of people and just work with specific groups of people and the criteria was we want just people trust them one people they they they never work with the daffy regime before and After that the GNC the the general national Congress in 2012 12 they actually promote they start They promote law it's called political isolation law where everybody actually worked during good daffy era since 1996 tell the revolution Prohapted to work in any public, you know or political You know Positions in Libya so that really creates a lot of conflict instead of bringing the people together They cancel that that this law this year, but the question will be How we're gonna change the mentality of the people and how really we create the idea of how we can work together instead of exclude each other Especially if we want to think about the future of Libya resisting feedback and Rationist of elections and lack of leadership I'm gonna also give example about the rationalist of elections because really I feel so crucial and so important because What happens? Libya have really successful election process and you will be surprised Compared to the security crisis that we have and it was really successfully was really you know promising and Everything went perfect, but what's the result? We have six now temporary government since the revolution started in 2011 until today and This government don't have legitimacy even with those people being elected. So where's the problem here? When you rush the election you have winner and loser and when you have loser those Loser should be reconciled and should be part of the process to build the country so that election actually bring more conflict and Show failure actually in the in the Libyan experience today when we have those different Government and to explain more a little bit about the government So we have now two Parliament one located in Tobruk in the east and one located in Tripoli and we have two government and We have extremal groups and we have also international interference security and justice Police dispowerment actually it's a big huge issue absence of strongest institution. I'm a lawyer. I work for four years The legal system and then I work as a professor in the criminal law. It was really corrupted and a lot of legal issue that we dealt with During that time one of them actually the daffy triate you know Mentality where people don't respect the police or the legal institution He disempowered them. There is no training. No weapons. No power. They can't actually control anything The idea just vision you can see policemen in the streets where he can't actually Stop you stop you or try actually to suit you because he don't have enough power for that And he did that for a reason he want to disempower those legal system and actually Disempower the idea of the rule of law. So that's actually we have now this problem until today Definitely, we have you know Preparations of weapons everywhere and that happens From the beginning of the revolution. I remember in 2011 We have just one military pays in Benghazi Skull for the aboumar and it takes just maybe two or three days and then they take over this this You know military base since that day we have a huge number of weapons Disappointed in the city and that's was actually the beginning because Benghazi was the first city liberated in the east and after you know eight month Who been controlled also Tripoli? Military actually also without resources This is a big issue in Libya and I need to highlight that a little bit because it's so important now to understand the military role in Libya Especially we have now the dignity movement again, it's the down movement We want to understand that really because there's a huge debate in the Libyan society now about the rule of the military People some of them they don't trust the military especially in the West and some of them They're really passionate about the military ideas and let me go back a little bit to the history of Gaddafi Gaddafi actually Try to have different approach in the east and the west so because we have a long Conflict of an history of conflict between the east and Gaddafi So Gaddafi one of the things he tried to do There is no military base in the east and there is no training or resources to the military He can't trust the military as institution because he was concerned about those military one day Well, maybe cool or maybe try to take over Gaddafi regime So there is no military base and and in the beginning he tried actually to push the militaries In very failures world for example the war between Chad and Libya He killed a lot of people who tried to stand against them So he tried to disempower the idea of military also in the east and the other hand in the west you can see Because he was paced in Tripoli. So he have his own, you know security Security service where those will trained very skillful Have resources and they was you know controlled by his family and his sons So he create this military base in Tripoli will have and those military actually they've done a lot of crimes against The people in Tripoli and the west so just put that in your in your in your mind for a while And then think about why we have division now today in Libya between the east and the west By people supporting dignity and others. So when you see that the east Let's say 90% in Benghazi. They're supporting dignity movement and I will explain the reasons later But for the West when it comes to the idea to the military everybody Have suspicious about Hefter a military and the idea of the military in the east because they feel that those will be actually Just extensions of the you know the human right violations and the history they have been through in the West Okay, so what are the current positions for Libya right now? We have negotiation process as Hunter mentioned Start January 15 the UN Initiated initiated talk and then actually try to gather those conflicted governments and Parliament in Libya Which is amazing and I feel it's promising step, but really I have a lot of a Lot of criticism in terms of the process how it's look like and and how really we make sure that we can use this Negotiation process as a rep moment that really can help the future of Libya so So when the negotiation process start in January 15 in January 19 they decide to have ceasefire and was the goal to stop the violence between the extremists and the dignity movement after two days they preach the ceasefire and Until today we have this So they initiate the token Geneva and then in Morocco and then Algeria and then they're gonna start again in Morocco What really those people the process missing from the beginning there is no public participation with the negotiation process It's top-down approach. We're really there's they're disconnect between the grassroots level and between You know the elites and the government and especially those elites if they had don't have political Well, it would be so difficult and you don't have social foundation to support this negotiation process that will be so difficult to have successful a negotiation and What I'm trying to suggest here the grassroots actually should start the conversation Start to talk about and ask harder questions about what we need as a Libyan now today How we can approach, you know, the negotiation process. What's our role? Are we are ready really to you know? Think about ceasefire and why it's important for us as a Libyan and From the international community actually we need a lot of support And I believe insider should be to do the hard work in terms of the conversation and try to engage with the armed groups But I believe also the international community have really a tremendous role to support the negotiation not even just the negotiation But the peace process in general in Libya So, you know, they can do that politically and practically and by capacity building They can influence actually the government and those armed groups to come to the table by in sanctions You know processes Trying to use a political pressure Practically need we need actually for the international to play a role to you know, also you depression of the spoilers Who who are you know from different countries Qatar, you know emirate? Yeah, I'm a turkey like have many countries that really play now rule to support part against other and also we need capacity building and And and you know almost of the NPCs now closed in Libya. There is no financial aid And and I understand that because the security crisis But again how we can support the civil society there How can really we help those people to start the conversation without training without financial support without at least We have that we want the basic of skills of facilitation negotiation to build the trust and the confidence with the civil society to be able to Start the conversation with the armed groups I love this picture because really I feel Yes, the negotiation process is considered red redness moments, but also in Libya. We need cultivated We need to cultivate that we need actually to use the event of you and talk as a as a as a chance as Opportunity that can we work together and try to communicate together and think about What's options that we have scenarios that we have as a Libyan how we can really stop that violence and think about the future of Libya It's not easy, but it's will be it's really one of the things that we need to think about And we need also to include everybody in the process So when I think about that just to make it more realistic I'm thinking about key people who can really for example when you speak again about the civil society when you speak about armed groups because Those people have been affected every day by the violence and people tired of violence You know, I was calling my father yesterday that people really tired and affected by violence no electricity No gas, you know Schools have been closed for a year now children without school the daily life is so complicated now, Olivia There is actually division in the social fabric between the Libyan by themselves because they mobilized Mobilized by those different groups. So we have people even against or with and had that really affect the life the daily life So we need to think about Alternative ways we have key people and I when I think about key people I keep I think about the women I think about the youth and I think about the moderate religious and also I think about the traditional leaders who play a huge rule now To solve the conflict in Libya, especially with the absence of the legal system How we can use those people actually to start the conversation and strength the foundation for the social fabric? That will be possible. Just depend on those key people We need both we need key people and we need more people to be mobilized To work together and try to make social political change in the Libyan society This is the last one and and and I think really the the solution for Libya how to own the process if And then again why I mentioned the civil society the civil society actually Play huge rule since the revolution started in the beginning. I believe in civil society I was worked as the head of the public engagement unit for seven months as a volunteer which is Consider one of the department for the NTC National Congress And we did a huge and tremendous work. It's not me. The people was really fantastic and And and the just the power of the civil society how really we did a lot of activities a lot of fantastic work And I just when I just go back and think about that Hope and passion and power how we can really actually keep going the same and try actually to to you know rebuild the the trust and the element of the trust within the civil society, so Again why I'm focusing in that the lack of political will as a part of the national leaders We need to strengthen the social fabric and create salt foundation Libya produce local leaders believing in unviolent movement and inspire the community to make change from local leader Civil society can pursue national leaders to change their behavior. Thank you so much now So they have the next meeting will be in Morocco Physically will be in Morocco Yeah, Morocco the country Not in Libya outside Libya One thing that I think would be very helpful and in both of you have touched on it is let's just define the basic players in their locations So Any one of you can jump on that? I mean it depends again whether you're talking about political players or military ones So the political players the way that the way that I say it and I might see it differently But the political players institutionally are bound up in the GNC the general national Congress Which was first elected in the summer of 2012 And has since extended its mandate it the mandate it first expired in February of 2014 and that was by we could call it statute that was by a constitutional Document that was written up during the revolutionary phase In the meantime another Parliament was elected. This was last summer And it refers to itself as the House of Representatives and it is based in Tobruk and then by the to some extent which are two cities in the east that are relatively secure So institutionally you're talking about two parliaments. You're also talking about two governments Omar Hassee is is serving as sort of the chief executive in the west in Tripoli And you have Tini who is serving as prime minister in the east Underneath that sort of super structure, then you have what I think is a fascinating situation You have ministries that are still functioning in Tripoli Those ministries though. They are in Tripoli do not necessarily correspond only with the general national Congress That is governing from Tripoli Across the sort of ministry landscape you find different responses to the question sort of how do you how do you go to work every day? What what do you do? Who do you respond to? You have some ministries that are more closely associated with one government or the other But by and large the response that I get from people when I ask that question is We're trying to go to work and remain neutral day by day That is Especially important I think for all of us here considering what might happen in Libya next But that is especially important for some very sacred cows in the Libyan context. One is the central bank right because the central bank is the one that pays first of all the salaries of Just about what was the latest? Nudgele might know better than me what the latest individual count was in terms of Public salaries, but the budgeted amount for public salaries in the country is right near 22 billion dollars, right? and the central bank is the is the The the waypoint by which all of that money winds up hitting the street and if those salaries aren't paid Libya would be in a much different place today than it than it is right now So the central bank maintains that that degree of independence and other institutions like the national oil company The Ministry of Finance These institutions all have to maintain in my view They all have to maintain this sense of independence if there's going to be any modicum of security going forward So so we can consider this sort of ministry landscape as as a kind of detached Operational to some extent, but a detached governing structure and when I say operational to some extent what I mean is As I said before the development track is way out of phase at this point They're there when you talk about capital investments in the country. There's virtually nothing happening, right? Which which in one sense is is a big problem in another sense It's what I think is causing there to be a great deal of of What I want to say, but a great deal of reticence in on the street to to to really To to really expand the conflict right because there's just not that much money being spent across the country So there aren't that many opportunities for people to perceive unfairness slides, you know Whatever the whatever the case may be what they are doing though the ministries in general they are paying salaries to government employees to the employees of government-owned businesses and and and to others and those salaries Are I you know to again to my mind those salaries are what are holding the country together at this point? Excellent Okay We will open it up to questions. I have several but we have a good crowd here today. So let's let's jump right to it Okay And please make sure you use the microphone bill. Thanks and identify yourself in this on bill sessions Where do they physically meet when they come to negotiate? Is it over in the east or is it in the west or how do they get together? Is it congressional? Who sponsors it what happens? I Thank you. This is very good question. They didn't do any negotiation process in Libya So the first meeting was in Geneva in Switzerland So they try to invite people from the parliament both east and west. Yes. Yes. Yeah Yeah, and also from the west from Tripoli and then they follow this meeting with other meeting in Algeria and Morocco And then they went to Algeria. So every time they meet they try to extend more people To make sure they they're more representative and those people go back to Libya and try to have conversation With their groups or where their party and then they go back to continue the negotiation process What is the seat of government? Is it Tripoli? Is it to Brooke? Where is it? Sorry? Where is the seat of government? Yeah, that's actually the problem. It's in both places. It's in both places. Yeah So when they meet they don't meet what is internationally recognized, but I just let me clarify one point here so The the elected, you know, buddy, it's the parliament in the top rick This is they they went by election, you know legal election and then because the security crisis was in Benghazi So in the in the beginning of the content and written in the constitution that they should actually have the parliament in Benghazi So this is the main conflict when they when they have the The security was a big issue and still in Benghazi Then they decide actually to choose Tobruk because it's savor and close from Egypt there and they can't control it So they went there and from this story the conflict start because some of the members of those parliament refused to go to Tobruk and say No, we need to meet in Benghazi or Tripoli So some of those group group actually stay in Tripoli They refused to meet there in the parliament and from there the crisis happens because they start mobilize people around them And then they say we need to have our own parliament and our own, you know, government. So this is just There's another important point here, which is that the the the sort of UN track of negotiations is happening And as much as I said, it's sort of it. They've made attempts to organize Dialogue inside the country in red them as for example those attempts haven't been all that successful. So they've opted instead for international venues There's a separate track of negotiations that has been happening It's a significant track. It's been happening largely in Algeria over the last sense about December and What's interesting about that track is that it's it's much more focused on personalities and behind-the-scenes actors, right? So in Algeria, you'll have you had in December you had Mahu Jibril and Salabi who's a Religious figure that also commands a lot of influence among some of the militias that are operating out of Misrata and Tripoli you had them meeting for the first time in Algeria in an attempt to sort of cool the the political fires that existed between Mahmoud Jibril's group, which is the the the Hall of group of the sort of so-called liberals And the and the so-called conservatives that that track of negotiations has continued and And and and is still there's a there's an open channel of communication in Algeria between Between the the figures that are at the head of some of the more potent military organizations in the country and those negotiations are also supported in Indirectly and directly by other regional actors to include Turkey and Qatar and and and by extension or by implication Also Egypt in the UAE That is do they have an agenda where they're both talking and all those separate about the same things? I mean that's very I think that I Think personally that they're the the interests that are represented in those negotiations and One what we're talking about then are the interests of the the cities of Benghazi Misrata of Tripoli of Zintan other other influential localities across the country I think it's fair to say that those actors are all interested in the state-building process That's to exclude the extremist organizations that are that are fundamentally different They have they have a totally different perspective on how a state should be should be built over the long-term From them and the group that is meeting. No, no, there would be no for example There would be no on Sarash Ria representation at these talks My name is Nate Mason I was the commercial attache at the US Embassy in Tripoli 2011-2013 From the beginning my sense has been that people are largely fighting on the basis of a fear of exclusion from From whatever it ends up being the power situation as opposed to having some sort of positive agenda like we're fighting for Islamism or you know, I think that's sort of been misconstrued in the West but Do either of you can you identify things that people are actually fighting for other than simply trying to avoid? Marginalization and exclusion at the end of whatever process So as Hunter mentioned like the dynamic completely changed since 2011 till today. There is a lot of Dynamics and different factors and I think the diff I have a problem with the definition so people when they decide to do something under specific definitions or it will be so difficult to clarify What's really that definition means to those people, you know So when you see it's so difficult also to say we are Islamist we are Muslims country And so the problem now with this new ideology now people using actually the Islam as as you know As executes but we know it's it's not the you know, the reality. It's just for political agenda and they so I think there's other reasons for people look for Definition they are really feel comfortable with Because they have their own needs and I think though those there for example, most of those youth they have problem with economic They're looking for jobs. They're looking for You know dignity they they're looking for identity You know Others they use you know They are less education than the other so so so easy for them to mobilize those youth for different reasons And the beginning was for to just to fight against Gaddafi But after that, you know, we actually also forget about the trauma issue with those militia groups who have been involved And since the you know, the revolution it was civil war actually wasn't revolution So how that really affects, you know the way how those militia see themselves and how they keep continue today I think this is will be the question. I don't know if I answer your question and Nate what I would say is is that you're exactly right that It's much more a question of being excluded than it is a question of fighting for sort of You know Islamist way of governing to what and what that means. I think is very very Open for discussion even among the organizations that are commonly identified as Islamist, but when you say excluded And and fighting a you know in defense of one's inclusion in government what we're really I mean What's so important to understand about Libya is that the revolution at the beginning was experienced very Individually by by different towns across the country and the militarized response to that Revolutionary context was different in every community and the militias that we see now today are To a large extent born of that of that context, right? Miss Rata experiences the revolution in a very very brutal kind of way And and the city is forced to raise up a huge number of neighborhood defense forces that That that you know are capable of protecting the town from a very serious onslaught by the regime Well, yes, I mean the No formalization has ever come to the security sector in Libya since the the conclusion of the revolution Even those forces like That what we hear are the state special forces in Benghazi. That's that that's just another militia acting in a very ambiguous space But what I'm saying is that when we're talking about exclusion We're talking about the exclusion of localities and their future role in the state And it's important that we understand that you know a city like Miss Rata might feel threatened or might feel Paranoid about its future role in the state because that means that the solution to the the current political crisis is one that has to Fundamentally deal with with localities in my in my opinion. Some people would will argue that that the tribal influence is strong some people will argue that perhaps that there's a Religious element that is powerful for some powerful motivating factors for some of these groups But I I really think that what we're what we're talking about is the competing interests of municipalities and localities across the country and when you talk to people When you talk to people these days I think it's strongly felt across the country that a Possible alternative to the negotiations that are happening in Morocco right now between the parliaments is to take What exists at the local level civil system? Sorry municipal councils And use municipal councils and their connections to civil civil society organizations on the one hand security organizations at it up at the other to negotiate a sort of Final status for for for government going forward or interim status for government going forward Unless we're able to kind of deal with that That fundamental reality that that cities matter. I don't think we're gonna we're gonna come up with a successful negotiation strategy Thank you for your question I Think one of the obstacles that we have again because the division So how really you you try to encourage the people to think outside the books? How really you you take this emotional have been involved with that the problem with Libyan? Let me speak about Benghazi again because really what I can notice since I left there is really a Division between the society now between agonist black or white either you are with dignity or even your word down and I think the reason reason for that because people involve with with those You know with those dilemma directly so every family you have husband or you know brother or you know friend or neighbor They are involved either way with down or with dignity So I think there is interest here is happening within the family themselves So really how we can actually challenge that and try to bring the people who and I believe the vice Bystanders because also the civil society the problem with civil society. They've been a lot of civil society. They supporting Dignity for example, you know and most of them they support dignity and that really dangerous when it comes to the You know how you build the element of trust because people they are not going to listen to you Especially the armed groups if they feel you are against them or you are having a side So how you present yourself? How you select the right people and how to bring you know Develop training for those people. I'm happy to to hear like the UN and the US Thinking about that but as as far as I know like I have good relationship with the civil society there There is no there is no training happening to the civil society in the ground We have two million people now outside the region in Tunisia and flee from and you know flee from the conflict And I was thinking talking with one of my friends why we can't try about alternative Approach where how train those people and then they can go back or try to communicate with others in the region But also the challenge now with the security So how we can start with the conversation? Secretly with small groups where they can actually build this foundation and the social fabric within the community And then they can actually have this foundation for all of the whole region, you know So I so far I know there is no funding happenings now or work in Libya It's very few like they just trying to ending some project correct me if I'm wrong But especially in Benghazi like there is no work have been done there and all the time the excuse is the security So how we can reach those people how we can help them and support them. I think this is the question also, I think that there's there's a sad story to tell here in the sense that Really we look at those those the question of social engagement. I think we look at that question from the perspective of lessons that we've learned We failed I think to to invest Substantially enough in the early phase and what especially in places like Benghazi. We were there in the beginning We the international community were there in the beginning and when government Libyan government moved to Tripoli in in the early fall of 2000 2011 There was a huge sucking sound as all the engagement moved to the West and suddenly Benghazi which saw itself as sort of center of the World, you know post post revolution, you know this very well Looked around and said what the heck just happened And where did all these where did all the interest go and where did all the services go and where did it? And you know the city stuck by its guns and its guns were civil society at the time It's guns weren't you know the the various brigades and Ancel Shreya and the others the city stuck by its guns for a very long time even beyond the assassination of Chris Stevens But after a time the space where civil society could really make an impact was taken over by by arm groups That were just far more powerful and today I think we don't get back to this position where we can deal with civil society in these constructive ways Until there's some there's some deal done track one that that allows the security That allows people to have confidence in the security environment and that brings back all these people who left because after all You know the the real key stitches to all this social fabric They've they've left the country now in the last six months to a year. That's a huge problem Let's Jump outside the country a little bit or look at some of the connections outside two questions I'd like to address one. What is the impact and activity that Libya is having with the Sahel region? And let's look at that historically. We know that Gaddafi was meddling and causing a lot of trouble across Africa But since the revolution what's happened with a little bit look to the past in number two Who are the regional players who are making an impact? kinetically as well as financially and otherwise in the region from the Emirates to Qatar to Egypt Italy others We could split those and take whatever one you want I mean the south and Libya is a fascinating place it's very very different from the rest of the country very different What drives much of the south are Trading schemes we will just call them schemes for the moment a lot of it is what you would call illicit trade But a lot of it is you know trade that's existed for for decades if not hundreds of years And is it is just traditional nevertheless there is the the subsidy regime in Libya allows opportunities for for very closed very suspicious networks of traders to profit To profit greatly by by taking things like refined fuel across the border into into places like Nigeria Sorry Niger, Algeria and and Chad That's a problem only because in order to secure those closed trading networks Organizations militarize they come into close contact with one another and they're inherently distrustful plus there's a resource out there that everybody wants to control So what you have then is in places like sub hot and then the network of cities that extend out from sub hot to the border You have competition between these closed networks and largely that competition is is is sort of Separated or the the the actors inside of that competition are separated by ethnic lines and and parts of those You know parts of those groups have been historically either supported or neglected by by the regime So they they have sort of historical antagonisms that are at play But when you talk about how those organizations organizations Then impact a sort of broader regional Concern about the flow of weapons and the flow of extremism and ideas It's difficult to get a handle on exactly what the risk is that Libya poses Certainly the weapons are out there and as long as there's a profit to be made they will flow Whether The south and Libya represents a fruitful ground for For you know, the building of extremist movements. I think is something that's a little bit more open as a question It it's it's not been the case That that I've been able to observe or that many of the people that I'm in touch with have been able to observe that you know organizations like al-Qaeda and the Islamic McRubb and others have have Achieved a great deal of influence in the south in society. The problem though is that it's just a huge space There's you know, if there's no if there's no management of the security situation in the north There's certainly no management of it in the south To include especially borders and so there's just a lot of room For people to set up shop and I think that's what Folks who who might be based in Niger these days looking north the French the Americans others are concerned about is that you know To the side of what normally exists in terms of you know illicit trade and and other kinds of troublesome things And in southern Libya to the side of that you do have just a very large space that's open for for groups to operate out of There are other Implications to the sort of competition between tribal groups in the south that that want to conduct trade But largely I think those implications have to do with Libyan stability as as a whole not necessarily with a with a broader sort of regional impact No, I shall have it some of the neighbors This is so difficult okay As I mentioned earlier in the slides like about the rule of international community so Qatar actually play huge rules since the revolution started and everybody was wondering in the beginning I was one of the people like okay. Yeah, great. We want support We want like weapons to the revolution as I was thinking like that in that time But Later we discovered that was actually for specific agenda and especially for supporting the brotherhood in Libya Where they really actually based in the West and Tripoli and they are behind that, you know The idea of having other Parliament and other government they have their own agenda or needs that really affect The situation in Libya in general And also in Benghazi now people flee both who was who was actually supported by Qatar who support the the You know brotherhood they actually have been now fled from the kind of it from Benghazi because they've been threatened And also the people who against Qatar like I have a lot of my friends, you know judge lawyers Activists for the same reason because they actually discovered that there is a lot of influence and that creates conflict within the Libyan Themself. This is Qatar II you also play rule now and Egypt to support the dignity movement Which is the military? In the East they they they seems like that support in the West They they there is a question like they interfere in our, you know local situation in my our country We don't want anybody to be involved Turkey actually also have the same situation like Qatar. She should support the brotherhood and Both of them Turkey Qatar They involve the beginning of the revolution the early days actually they support and they did a lot of work Humiditarian work and then after that we discovered there is something else behind that So I think they really you know Play rule and I I wish if the international community like the US or the EU or they really try to play rule where they can Use the pressure to make balance and try not to actually support You know part against the other because in the end we are Libyan and I think we need to think about the future How we can work together Thank you. Yes, please Microphone and name and affiliation Can my record a world ox? The speaking of the international community the Revolution was heavily dependent on NATO's intervention for its success. How would a direct Military intervention by NATO be viewed today? I'll speculate and then Nigel can give you the truth. I Think in quite a few places it would be popular to be honest Benghazi is sick of what has been a very very long fight there and I think that The support for an organization like dignity led by Khalifa hefter in Benghazi is is almost weirdly Strong, I mean the support for for a resurgence sort of ex-Qadhafi general who's trying to bring over a lot of Qadhafi era military officers and And and and also tribes that had been formally supported by the regime, you know It's it's not intuitively of an inherently smart or an inherently popular Thing but nevertheless Benghazi is is showing a great deal of support for the dignity operation And and I think that you know that suggests really people are looking for any any Opportunity at all to stop the violence Other parts of the country. It's obviously going to be quite a bit more complicated, but The message that I get constantly from Libya is that look There's consensus really at the at the base of it all there's consensus about who the bad actors are And the bad actors aren't necessarily Dignity and dawn the bad actors are Organizations like Ansel al-Saria Isis and other sort of real extremist organizations So if a fight was taken to those groups by an international force I think it would be largely popular if the fight starts to expand to other organizations like Elements of the dawn movement, which are are the most commonly vilified then I think it would be it would be a huge mistake Yeah, I think I think the people Again as I mentioned tired from violence and really want somebody to take the initiative We don't have capable government They can stop the extremist and the only way people see we we can actually solve the extremist problem now Olivia by have a strong military they can actually can You know fight again is this limit this the Islamist or the extremist and And as Hunter mentioned there is a lot of people they have Some sort of ideas about hefter and where he's coming from and his history But they don't mind that person to take the initiative to lead this movement to you know to get rid of those extremist Again, I have my own personal You know I idea about is that the right? Way to do fights against the extremist or try to think about other alternative ways where we can engage them and bring them to the Table and instead of keep ignoring and trying to put those terrorist group You know in the list where they we can't actually just name those as a terrorist group It's a huge problem because you actually decide to close the communication with those group and just decide to fight them again To be made here, which is that you know the the the problem that exists now the specific problem between dawn and dignity was driven in a large part by Expanding the fight in Benghazi to actors that weren't sort of these consensus bad guys Hefter when the operation started in Benghazi talked a lot in the English press Especially about his move against Ancel al-Sharia. This was you know this was a very cut and dry issue of Libyans taking action against extremist organization in their midst The actions though at the time didn't quite bear out that sort of limited Engagement it was a much more broad attack on other brigades in Benghazi that had Revolutionary credentials that had connections to other parts of the country and that really represented a different political point of view a Different political point of view not not a point of view that was opposed to the state building process But one that was that was simply different than than what many people in in the east stood for and so when that fight expanded to those other organizations their You know their network of supporters around the country became very very frightened and the the idea that Some of Hefter's allies were in possession of Tripoli Airport meant to these these these other people mainly from Miss Rata that You know that the the hefter and his allies could begin moving support weapons and other and other Meaningful supplies back and forth between the east and the west so the fight at the airport then erupted because Those interests in Miss Rata wanted to ensure that that wouldn't happen and and once the fight at the airport broke out You know it was a fairly quick descent into into the crisis that we have now So, you know when you talk about you know who you're going to label as the bad guys and the good guys You have to you have to be just you have to be very very specific Otherwise you're gonna make this problem a whole a whole lot worse Ben So I'm with the Africa program here at CSS just on that You know you talked about a lack of discernment and my question is How do you? Who are you referring to me is is? It seems that hefters benefiting a bit from making these his targets and he has a lot of support from UAE Egypt You know how do the downloads fall who do you push back on you know? Who's the person that changes the narrative to say as you said some of these people will be part of the national project And some won't and it's important that we don't alienate some of these groups and lump them in with You know other more problematic actors If you're talking about how you know how does track ones in terms of the negotiations that are currently underway How does track one resolve itself, right? I think the biggest impediments to that track achieving a resolution are Hefter on the one hand literally the person himself and and sort of the immediate group of people around him And and then on the other side there are you know for lack of a better word there are warlords Who who operate out of Miss Ratha eastern Tripoli and and other parts of the country who who probably also? Need to step aside in a way before there can be any real political compromise, but that said It seems pretty clear that interest on all sides political interests at least are interested in coming to a compromise in the very near future my Concern is that those political interests again are out of step with the military interests And it's not at all a straightforward thing to say you know that that dawn sort of corresponds to Muslim brotherhood Corresponds to Miss Ratha all of that is far more complicated than the the the simple story that's often told and And so then I think you know you wind up that if you're trying to find a place where the security the political right and And to some extent even the the development tracks align themselves It's at the the the municipal level in most cases today And so for example in Miss Ratha the the municipal council, which was after all elected has now taken sort of oaths of fealty From dozens of the brigades in that city who are also part of the Libya dawn movement, right? this Intermingling of interests is is a huge problem because we from the outside need to have something in a you know In a 500 word story to grip on to But the fact is that for the for the the the track negotiations What what we what we need to have happen is to find a place where those three things overlap and then to describe them In a nut with enough sensitivity so that we know exactly where the the interests You know lie and and then use those interests and the chips that we have at our disposal limited as they might be You know to bring people to some kind of Agreement I think until we start looking at those those smaller units and and this Those alignments of interest we're not going to you know these talks are just going to kind of go on ad nauseam And and the fact that you know political leaders might make commitments that military leaders can't back up or vice versa You know it's just gonna It's just gonna result in in continued frustration and and a lot more fighting on the ground I Maybe I will flip the question if you don't mind and I see like we need to figure out what's the insider want? You know, I mean that there is really an influence But at least we need now as a Libyan to sit together and figure how we can really Make priority watch what's kind of interest or need that we need and then when we have like this clear agenda That will be so easy to work with international community and say hey actually This is what the groups, you know interest. This is what they need and To make sure we have like at least clear strategy that they keep the international community can support because when you say no I don't want them to Interfere anymore within the Libyan, you know context or they're gonna ask you the next question. Why what they want? No, actually, we won't support that because for example, Libya Egypt case they support the down of the military and their and their reason they they don't want Extremists and they don't want and they are also have concern about the brotherhood So I feel it's it could be both, but my perspective. I think we should as insider as a Libyan decide What we want to do with that conflict and then try actually to think about how the international Community support that that makes sense to you Yeah, and I think you know, there's it's no secret that you know There's a there's a massive struggle underway across the Middle East right now between Supporters of organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood and and and and people that oppose that You know exactly how the the international actors are going to compete for that kind of influence in Libya I think is it is an always evolving story It was fascinating to watch for example the Watan party in Libya, which which ran in the initial elections back in 2012 as a sort of explicitly You know it was an organization that was explicitly supported by Qatar and and That was known across the country and because that was known the party which you know You would you would driving around right? You would you would think that the party was doing very well because there was certainly the best resource in terms of You know posters and and you know all the the sort of material of an election campaign But they they polled what one two percent maybe across the country And I think it largely because they were they were known to be supported from abroad So I think there's there's a huge sort of level of angst at this point in the country about any kind of foreign involvement with the exception perhaps of again that ironic situation in Benghazi where you you have a large number or a big part of the population supporting a movement that is that is very explicitly funded and aided by by interests like Egypt's and and the UAE so You know how this is all going to evolve in the next six months in the context of negotiations I actually I you know I couldn't really say but I agree with with Najla that the you know There is a sort of native interest in In in sort of expelling at least as much as possible the foreign influence and if we can focus on some of those native interests We're probably you know, we're probably on the right track One more question from the crowd Ed Soister Ed Soister old soldier And this is a far out thing as I look at the map and the thrust of all the discussion is a division between East and West Is there any thought of in fact dividing the country and going from there? Well, I was speaking to a official at the central bank A couple days ago and he in fact said the same thing And he's speaking from the position of a of an utter nationalist You know, I think people are at the sort of social level people are starting to talk about that more and more certainly in Tripoli There is an attitude that the east is just far too troublesome to go on dealing with and Maybe it's better if they just handle their future on their own Once that sort of bubbles up into the institutions It gets to be a much more problematic thing and and how you would deal with the fact that most of the oil resources Are in the east is just beyond anybody's ability to really rush ration through but nevertheless there are Movements that have existed since the end of the revolution that have promoted different models of federalism With various degrees of autonomy for for the different regions those movements initially were very unpopular even in the east But who's to say what influence they might have going forward what what is happening though? I can't say is that you know The the Denny government out of Tobruk is doing its damnedest to establish new Institutions in the east that are that are you know, they they're counterpart institutions to institutions in the west There's a guy living in an apartment in Tobruk who's claiming to be the governor of the central bank of eastern Liberia There there's a national oil company that's been established in the you know the sort of genesis of that kind of partition is there I Still personally feel like it's unlikely that we would see any real division But we'll see I mean at the end of the day, too It's it's it's always important to remember that Libya is a tiny tiny place, you know You're talking about five maybe six million people It's a huge area, but but a very small place in terms of people's connections to one another So as a guy who lived there for three years One year in Benghazi two years and Tripoli for example, you know on an average day in Tripoli I'd I'd run into people on the street that I knew very well from Benghazi and that's just the way the society sort of fits Into itself, you know, it's hard to imagine given that that there would be a way to sort of pull apart and to into into constituent units and more than that I think you would You know, you would you would then have to deal with the fact that you know The east would be sort of a kind of transitional state from Egypt's sort of sphere of influence in the west Maybe not quite as transitional, but still, you know, there would be there would be an interesting character there that would change Because it would just be a smaller unit up against, you know, two fairly significant states to the to its own west and the south would be You know, God only knows I just want to comment and Hunter You know just added something again. Libya is so tiny and and personally I find so difficult to To, you know, think about the division idea my father from Maserata, I grow up in Benghazi and my mother from Tripoli and We are really small, you know Group of people we really interconnected socially and and under different tribes and I think it's We for me so difficult to think about that, you know, and yes There is a lot of frustration now in the street because people they feel especially they suffer too long Especially in the east and Benghazi under those extremists and they feel there there is no enough support from the West Especially they have different, you know agenda with this new parliament and government, but again, I feel from the people perspective I don't think so that would be a good idea Thank you for your question and since December 2010 we've seen a succession of governments fall Tunisia Libya Egypt Yemen, we've had a civil war ongoing in Syria There was a lot of promise that was offered to people and then a lot of unmet expectations and a lot of instabilities We've seen Libya is an excellent example of it. I think the public is confused about what's going on there We just don't know a lot of The differences between the players and the changes that go on day by day So we really appreciate having you Hunter and Najla come in to provide some insight to us And we hope you join us for the next meeting Thank you