 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network With there being no NFL this weekend that is for you to stop to talk about a lot of other sports across the sporting universe We've already discussed me PL. We've talked some NASCAR and now it's time to talk NHL and UFC and who better to do So then Austin Swain we're gonna bring him on for today breaking down NHL futures at the all-star break Then we'll get you ready for this weekend's UFC betting card This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here by Austin Swain He is a senior editor for Fandall research You can find him on Twitter at a swing free He of course is the host of our UFC betting and a DFS podcast over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Austin Happy Friday to you. Hi Pete. How are you doing today? I'm doing great and I know you're doing great as well The eighth for those who in the audience who don't know who don't read over at Fandall research Maybe you haven't seen it the one thing Jim and I bond over is cars going in circles We both love NASCAR. They are back going in circles this week His betting guide on Fandall research yesterday my DFS helper coming this weekend. It's so excited to be back Reminds me I have to send you my winsons, which yeah, absolutely yet But also in addition to it being NASCAR time I also have a couple new NASCAR bobbleheads, which I need to get on the shelf back here as you can see There's only the bubble Wallace. I can't figure out. There we go. The bubble wall is Funko pop is the one thing back here We have two Elliott Sather bobbleheads the result of my head ahead of Brandon Gaddula And I need to find us a place to put them So we're gonna do some crafting later on today to try to decide where those go But NASCAR being back on the menu is very much necessary right now for sure Alrighty, so we're gonna today with Austin to talk about his read on the NHL Futures market here at the all-star rank will talk about the Stanley Cup future odds talk some playoff odds as well See where he sees value there over at Fandall Sportsbook and then gonna get you ready for this weekend's UFC card It is between Roman delize and Nasser Nasser Dean Imovav I had a rent that out phonetically to make sure I didn't butcher it and still butchered it regardless We'll talk about that main event and where Austin sees value full of money lines and props later on But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast as mentioned EPL match week 23 breakdown with Austin cast is now up over at Fandall And the Fandall podcast network breaking those thoughts on where he sees value for this weekend at Fandall Sportsbook I also talked about the NASCAR clash at the Coliseum With one bet I liked there and one driver I'm keeping an eye on during practice on Saturday and also if you want my first thoughts on Super Bowl 58 That is up on Monday. 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Hope is here visit gamblinghealthlinema.org Or call 803-2750-50 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 hope and why or text open Y in New York Let's begin things here awesome by talking about the NHLs We are here at the all-star break in as of right now The colorado avalanche are the betting favorites over at vandal sports, but are you an avalanche fan? I know you're in denver, but are you a fan? I am I was at a game just exactly 30 days ago I probably will be again before the end of the season two Okay, I was gonna say because you're your rooting interests are all across the country So I didn't want to just assume that you were but uh, okay, so as fan here to check in they're a to one to win it right now and Stanley Cup playoffs being pretty volatile And I think that that's baked into this number with no clear runway favor right now. So Any value for you in the Stanley Cup odds right now, Austin? Yeah, I think there is a little bit, you know as someone who cheers for the avalanche I have to check my bias of course, and I don't see them as the cup favorites currently I'm not alone on that they're eighth in number fires nerd based power rankings the the nerd metric there Just kind of some issues in goal in goal Alexander Gorgia 48th of 85 qualifying goalies So he's not had the same type of season He had last year and the roster will get stronger Gabriel Landyskog supposed to ramp up for the playoffs But I I think that's more projection than anything to me I think there's at least a little bit of value here because I would favor the Edmonton Oilers outright over any of the teams in the chase back avalanche Bruins Panthers whoever you name it because we always do it was more of an if than a Or was a win than an if with the Oilers because they have Connor Mcdavid Lee on dryside all these Outstanding skaters they've always been able to score, but this year they're playing defense tops in the NHL with a 58.0 Expected goal goals for rate. They've been undone by goal-tending historically But right now Stewart Skinner has shaken off a tough start He's 12th in hockey and goals saved above expectation 12.04 They now are playing defense their top five in expected goals allowed the goal tending has been solid That's how they ripped off, you know, 13 or 15 wins here in this recent stretch I think they are the favorites and I don't really Jim you and I both can kind of fall for the cowboys every year I don't really buy into that can't can't get over the hump can't do this can't do that They've been in these deep playoff series. They were in the western conference finals last Two years ago. I believe against the avalanche. They've been there. They just haven't had the goal tending I think they've got it and I would favor them in this market Yeah, as you mentioned the playoffs have been the big bugaboo for the Oilers, but it is a pretty volatile sport I think that's true for the nfl too where You can have a down game and it can ruin your entire season for some teams and for the Oilers, you know It's just like I said, it's a volatile sport where it's tough to Really pin down Who's the stronger team over such a short series? So right now the Oilers plus 850 At fan duals sportsbook to win the Stanley Cup Finals How sustainable do you think that improvement on defense is like do you fully buy in if it's going to stick around for them? Yeah, I do. I mean, I feel like they've always had the skating talent to make it work And the way they've arranged their line combinations this year I I am a big believer that consistent line combinations both help offensive and defensively with chemistry and communication They've had the top line Zach Hyman mcdavin and ryan eugen hopkins together all year Um evan bouchard plays with that group They've added a couple of like names to their second and third defensive pairings that have seemed to have helped They've they've never really had a problem and expected goals differential even with a like defensive issues. That's how good they are at scoring Um, I I do think the goal is ending. It's it's always a guess like last year We had Sergei Barabsky struggle all year and then all of a sudden he was liked out in the playoffs Got the panthers to the Stanley Cup finals like that can go up and down quickly But Skinner is talented. So I think he can sustain that level of play any more than any of these other volatile options All right So Austin has Connor mcdavin getting his first Stanley Cup with the Edmonton Oilers a plus a 50 is the best value as of right now Fandall sportsbook does also have yes. No playoff odds I believe for pretty much every team right now So when you look at those Austin any you're eyeing to buy or fade as we get set for the all star break Yeah, usually this market is a ton of fun because the hockey playoff picture can stay layered for a long time The way this particular year has broken down We kind of have a good idea of a majority of the playoff field in the west You look at vegas or los angeles would be the two teams that might potentially slip out I feel strongly about them as teams than anybody in the chase pack predators The blues and kraken both have offensive issues and then the flames just shipped off their captain and best players So i'm not exactly looking to target them in this moment. And then you go back to the east Um, there is an established core of teams that are pretty much in either off the board or minus three seven year grader on fandall ruins panthers lightning maple leafs rangers and hurricanes I think all those guys are ostensible locks to make it Then you have this gaggle of teams that could compete for the last two spots Penguins their fourth and expected goals for great good skating inconsistent goal tending fires are 13th in that category The devils are 15th in that category But the one name that interestingly doesn't fit here despite you know being seven points up on pittsburgh and new jersey The detroit red wings their minus 128 to not make the playoffs on fandall sportsbook And the odds kind of speak themselves you get this cushion But there's a reason why they're favored not to make it they have the eighth worst expected goals for rate in the league Fourth largest overperformance in that category compared to how many goals They're putting on paper versus how many they should be They've been I don't want to say lucky But you can be fortunate in a short period of time in hockey because the scoring chances don't always translate to To goals and they have a volatile goal tending situation. It's not even a situation where they have a vezanek contender Alex lying just came over from florida. He's been great for the moment But lion james rimer anyone who has been following hockey for a long time knows those guys have had their ups and their downs And one downward trend for both of them in the right way The wings will lose ground here fast to some of these teams that are putting up offense much more consistently So as you mentioned they are currently even money to make the playoffs minus 128 to miss But they also they get to keep the the points they've gotten so far Is their cushion big enough where you have pause about this or is there so much time left where it's not gonna Worry too much with the minus 128 Yeah, I just I i'm not worried about the cushion because seven points It is a little bit harder in hockey to make up than you think it's not like making up direct wins in the standings Because you can push through to overtime But like I said the bruins currently skating as a top five team in the nhl Not the bruins the penguins excuse me Skating is the top five team in the nhl the devils are a little bit further down But they've been without jack used for a good portion of this first half He's actually missing the old star game as well But he's expected back shortly after that those teams were stanley cup favorites Like entering the year and within the top six of the stanley cup odds They are really solid organizations and clubs seven points is going to go away very very quickly If those guys get on a roll and kind of perform to what we expected them to Yeah, still a lot of season left. So the seven points They're not a big enough cushion in austin's eyes for the wings liking them to miss the playoffs at minus 128 Any other nhl futures you're eyeing as we enter the all-star break here austin? Yeah, so i'm looking at a point total here with what i'm calling the unluckiest team in hockey I'm looking at the los angeles kingster accord over 98 and a half points minus 118 They are two and ten in overtime games and if you're not familiar with nhl overtime It's three on three it can be a little bit more random than five on five skating throughout the entire game before that Just haven't got hasn't gone their way there and They are fifth overall in the nhl and expected goals for rate They got off to a nice start cam talbot the the veteran and goal actually was performing well for them And then he kind of fell off a cliff, but now david riddick is taking over as their starter He's been sensational 11th and goals saved above expectation in the last 30 days He was great in their 4-2 win right on wednesday one of the last games before the all-star break I still think they're the second best team in the pacific behind edmonton They will need 1.26 points per game the rest of the way to make it They're at 1.17 so far and that's even with all the bad overtime luck Even with the cam talbot struggles in december to early january. I really like this mark a lot I think i feel comfortable projecting them over 100 points for the season Yeah, so as you mentioned the 56 points for them They already have as many overtime losses they had the entirety of last year and they're at one below where they were In 2022 which is actually the highest number they had had since 2014 2015 So a lot of ot losses for the kings which worked against them 56 points right now for them austin likes them to go over 98 and a half minus 118 right now over at fan dual sportsbook Let's talk some u.s. See right now We got a pretty decent card over at fan dual sportsbook and that is headlined by roman delize Taking a nostril in imovav right now at fan dual sportsbook imovav is a favorite minus 170 on the money line That is lengthened a bit or as that shortened a bit. It was minus 166 earlier yesterday. It is now minus 170 What's your read on this fight austin anything stand out to you from a betting perspective at fan dual for this one Yeah, I I pretty much was in line with the books win this fight open I have an analytical model still working through some margin for error things But I had no certain am above 51.3 percent to win this fight And so I was closer to how this fight is open He has obviously taken money throughout the week and I understand why he's the younger guy in this space He's probably the more skilled striker roman delize It's kind of hard to handicap as a fighter at middle weight. He used to fight at 205 pounds Now at 185. He's just big and I wrote in my article that's coming on fan dual research today His fighting style is kind of like that of a grizzly bear going after its prey He kind of clubs right hands at people and balls them against the cage But 1.68 percent knockdown rate for delize a elite power 1.7 submission attempts per 15 still doesn't have a submission in ufc So he's due for some regression to actually capitalize on those before long He won it light heavyweight in ufc against some really talented competition 185 these guys are really out outgunned by his physicality had a very tight fight with marvin vittory Who's a former title challenger in this division? And then imov of like I said is much more of a technical striker much more the new thing at 28 53 percent striking accuracy 58 percent striking defense But these guys have fought a mutual opponent phil haas was the mutual opponent imov ceded four takedowns to him He ended up losing that fight by decision roman delize knocked out haas in the first round And that type of mma math is not always perfect But it gives you an these guys should be competitive against each other the way Imov struggled to defend takedowns here comes a grizzly bear that lands them at a pretty efficient clip 50 percent So like I said my my model kind of leans delize at this number Especially is this number shortens on his end Um and or lengthens on his end I should say and then I prefer a little bit longer fight here because delize Controlling with takedowns imov has never had an early finish in ufc delize never been finished in ufc All of these things kind of gear toward a longer fight and this fight is a minus 110 pick them to start round four I lean the over on that with these guys leaning toward 25 minutes, but I don't have any action on this fight officially yet Okay, so uh the money line for delize is plus 138 you had mentioned the common opponent How much stock do you put in that especially when it's two fighters who are Sound it seems like at least based on what you said very different in their styles And then you can like you can still look at despite the fact they're different fighters Or Is it a bit more nuanced than that where you kind of take things with a heavy heavy grain of salt The buzzword that I use with it is transitive skills And like for instance imov had struggles struggles defending phil haws as an american wrestler delize He has similar types of rest. He's more of a greco roman base But it's close enough for government work in terms of mma wrestling I look at transitive skills within fights And I especially love this like if I get two strikers and then they have a striker as a mutual opponent Then i'm starting to cook with gas like you said haws is not a perfect example because he his susceptibility is powered delize Um was able to secure a takedown early in that fight But it had a lot to do with he has very powerful punches and phil couldn't take them Imov not really having that same power extended the fight against haws So it is a good point and that's why a lot of times they call mma math where this guy beat this guy So you should beat this guy. It doesn't work that way because styles make fights. Everyone knows that cliche But it to me at least it tangibly gauged the level and I think these guys are on the same level And that's why my model had it so close when it opened and it was close when it opened And now the younger guy is taking money throughout the week How long would you need to lead zeta length in order to feel confident in the the value there? Like you said, it's he's you know, we've seen imov imov a length or imov shorten here to minus 170 Which means that delize is inherently lengthening. How far does that to move before you reach a breaking point where you say, okay I'm gonna buy into what my model is saying and actually bet the money line for delize I think if I got to plus 150, I i'm not sure exactly what that is implied But I assume we're getting into that 40. Yeah 40 range It's probably where it's without without of the margin for error in my model to a point Where okay, I'm gonna have to take it and by the way with this line trending that way I'm I'm gonna have to be watching on saturday, especially as we take fight with even during the card starting as we're moving up to the fight I might not get to wager on this until I get to that plus 150 that 40 percent implied mark Yeah, the implied odds right now plus 138 or 42 percent and plus 150 is 40 percent that two percentage points Does make a really big difference. We should be price sensitive. Uh, so I think that being cautious keeping eye on the market seeing where it goes and being Picky with stuff like that is always going to be a good thing So you mean towards the leads a right now for austin Potentially more firm in that if it were to get to plus 150 at some point a lot other fights on this card though Austin, so which of the money lines do you see as being values at fandall sportsbook? Yeah, I'm taking an underdog shot on the early prelims when I look at uh, pete rodriguez He's taken on themba garimbo on the early prelims. It's not exactly the most glamorous fight on the card But I do think there is betting value here even without any sort of model I wouldn't model rodriguez a sample of about four minutes anyway These fighters are way too flawed on each side to me to have this wide of a gap Pete rodriguez. I think his true weakness at this point is his size. He's five nine He's probably closer to what you'd see for 155 pounder He just can't make the weight like he pulled out of his last fight because he wasn't able to make the weight His opponent made fun of him for it But he's back at 170 pounds where he fought his first two fights at one and one Could not have had a more stark cap in competition Was way overwhelmed against jack dela matelana top 10 guy in the division in his debut And then he got mike jackson who was the guy that beat up on former wwe star cm punk It was like a wild girth of competition Rodriguez was a minus 1100 favorite in the second fight was a huge underdog in the first fight So we haven't really seen him in a fight that I think goes both ways But he trains at the mma lab in phoenix with shawn o'Malley jared canineer marcus magies some really high level guys that are winning Quite a bit in ufc I love leaning on those training camps and those training regiments And that gym is well known for takedown defense and rodriguez. This is 100% thus far Then the grimbo needs to wrestle because he has not shown a lot of striking prowess thus far 42% striking defense some losses by knockout in his amateur career And he's really shown very little finishing equity of his own He had all this control time over eight minutes against takashi sato could not find even one submission attempt I think if rodriguez has 15 minutes to work Garemba starts to tire from his wrestling advances. He has great hands He throws 22 and a half significant strikes a minute were just about and lands about half of them historically from a great striking gym I don't think he should be plus 200 in this spot. I might line this far closer to a pickum So, um, I love pete rodriguez on the money line this week But I will say I see a lot of interest in his round one knockout prop like, you know, he's just going to go in and start to grimbo You have to be very careful about that because it all determines his own aggressiveness in the first round Maybe his game plan is to weather the storm. I prefer his money line versus digging into any specific Round prop submission prop anything like that. I prefer his money line because we don't know how this fight will progress Uh, rodriguez has never been outside the first round professionally Okay, so plus 198 the money line right now and pete rodriguez taking on a themba garemba That is on the prelim card for this ufc weekend What do you lean on when you don't have a lot of data on fighters? Are you trying to watch tape of them at lower levels? How are you deciding how you want to view fighters like that? We don't have a lot in like actual ufc competition to lean on So I do my best to based on the historical results if I have any sort of ego now rodriguez This is terrible. Like I don't have any tangible measuring stick of a guy that's even been in around Ufc But like you said you can lean on regional footage that that largely drives ufc betting lines a majority of people who do this Professionally they are looking through a tape study model when I look at this. I lean on things like gyms and Historically what they're known for for their training regimen. I do look at analysis a little bit I look at historical results But also pete rodriguez landed 22 significant strikes in the first round on a top 10 guy He's striking offense wasn't the problem in that fight. It was the defense But I feel more comfortable knowing I've seen that against a super high level opponent When I know garimbo striking offense isn't going to be nearly as dangerous or potent Okay, so austin likes pete rodriguez to win against garimbo plus 198 the money line there at vandal sports What about props you got props up a thing for all fights right now at vandal sports book Where are you seeing value there? So, um, I I'm gonna sure I'm gonna go through this and talk about a prop that can kind of if you missed the boat on The line movement you missed the best of the number how you can still kind of get access To the same type of handicap that I have I'm looking in the co-made event Some people say it's the people's main event this week between rinato moicano and drew dover money moicano here I could not believe how short this number is but i'm in total agreement with it I tweeted this out two weeks ago at minus 136. He has ballooned. It was minus 192 yesterday I uh, can't see what he's coming back at minus 188. Yeah, so dover's taking a little bit of money But um, if if you missed the boat on that my model has value on my moicano up to minus 150 I think his submission prop method of victory is a good way to get access to it Moe the thing about drew dober is that he has gone outside the rankings fought lower competition recently But every time he's gotten toward the rankings. We kind of see the same Deficiencies three and four in the ufc career when he seeded multiple takedowns He's lost three fights by submission gave up a bunch to brad riddell five of them submitted by islam maca maca chev venil daryush and olivia obon marcia like these guys that are really high level grapplers He has trouble with them and an auto moikano by submission is super short for an individual outcome here at plus 160 But moikano is the exact same type of fighter lands 1.66 takedowns per 15 Has six ufc wins by submission I am all but certain that is why he has taken so much money this week is because it's just a fresh reminder We haven't seen dober face a grappler in a while Haven't seen him face a ranked fighter in a while But this is what we saw every time he got back into the rankings I I don't even know how realistic dober's win path of like a knockout is in this spot His 1.11 percent knockdown rate not elite by ufc standards as your over two percent is And then moikano has an excellent 60 striking defense himself I think money moikano rolls in this spot gets an early takedown He submitted brad riddell in the first round submitted alexander hernandez in the first round It to me looks like a horrible matchup on paper for dober So the line moved exactly how I thought it was going to but if you missed the line movement on the money line I still think this is why it moved and I think there is value in this plus 160 number That is renato moikano taking on drew dober where the renato moikano by submission prop at fandall sportsbook is plus 160 That sounds short relative to what you'll typically see in this market. Is that correct? It is and I think when you see prohibitive numbers like that in these individual method of victory categories on fandall There is a reason for that. It is because that's particular prop I actually saw it in in different spots around plus 250 plus 280 when other books release early Fandall took that information in they saw how how quickly those numbers shortened That's what that all of this anecdotal evidence as well as if you look at the round total on a different tab gym Under one and a half rounds is minus 124. What does that imply fight is less than seven and a half minutes long Some of that is dober's knockout equity, but like I said, I think that's personally overvalued This number two also keeps dropping all of these anecdotal evidence markers I think that a lot of sharp bettors are thinking like I am that moikano gets the takedown Bunch of round one submissions himself and he just kind of rolls in the spot And that's what i'm going with which by the way, if you play daily fantasy on fandall That's a big score on fandall. So um, I'd be looking at moikano. Maybe in your mvp slot as well I might be bored enough to actually dabble in those ufc dfs streets this weekend So I appreciate the heads up there and if I want more tips on it I can just check out the heat check with austin later on Over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast me to get the full insights there He'll talk some betting there as well Breakdown that aspect of it as he will every single week on the number fire daily fantasy podcast But things austin likes for this weekend pete rodriguez to win plus 198 and then moikano by submission That is plus 160 that is austin sway make sure you check him out on twitter at a swaying three Fun is work over at fandall research and of course on the number fire daily fantasy podcast week every week with the ufc Dfs and betting breakdown austin enjoy this weekend. Good luck to you. We'll talk to you again soon Sounds good. Jim see soon, bud And again that podcast will be over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed find also on twitter at a swaying three I am on twitter at jim saunas. You can find me on threads at jim dot saunas and Check out fandall research on twitter at fandall research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today back with you again next week with five shows breaking down super bowl 58 it's gonna be a blast. We'll talk to all of you soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network