 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we are joined by Gautam Navlakha to discuss the current discourse around Kashmir and also how the valley is faring under the centre's rule. So Gautam, as we know, centre's rule has been extended for another six months. And the speech Amit Shah gave before this extension was granted has drawn a lot of attention, particularly one statement he made about saying that one-third of Kashmir is not with India today because of Nehru's mistakes 70 years ago. But even apart from that Amit Shah said a lot of things about how successful the centre has been in administering Kashmir, that development has arrived in Kashmir, there is democracy again and that militancy is being routed out. So what do you think of all of this, all the statements Amit Shah has made? There is always, you know, half-truths always carry some partial truth and partial silence. They omit the negative part and they've tried to present a more positive picture of the things. Because if you take each one of them, let's not go into the history part of it because there is a lot that many of the people who have been writing on Kashmir have pointed out Congress's role in creating the problem through their mishandling of Kashmir. So let's not go into that right now. But if we look at the question of where Kashmir is today, under not just President's rule or the Governor's rule, but also in the last five years, then we get a slightly different picture. Well, democracy is absent as far as Kashmir is concerned because if democracy is just reduced to election, then even election, the only parameter by which Amit Shah defined democracy and its success was talking about the successful panchayat polls in which 74.19 percent people came out and vote. But he was being very selective with his facts because the reality is that only 10 percent of panchayat wards saw any election or any polling and less than one-third of posts of Sarpanch saw any voting. Even in the urban municipal body elections, more than 180 wards were places where no polling at all took place. Now this is not a remarkable success of democracy. It only means that despite the lack of a concerted campaign by those who espouse Azadi, the people of their own volition, it seems stayed back and stayed away from casting their vote. Now this is not a success for democracy, it's actually a defeat and rather lack of trust and confidence in the electoral process. Quite apart from lack of democracy, the everyday democracy, I mean if it's your freedom to express yourself, freedom to organize and freedom to hold a peaceful protest, these are all lacking in Kashmir and that's been something that one has been pointing out for a long time. So as far as democracy is concerned, unfortunately Amit Shah is wrong but the selective presentation of facts help to create an impression that militancy is under control. But you know this question about militancy under control is also very peculiar. The same figures are also cited by the same government when it feels that it's necessary to show just the other side, the other picture, which is to claim that Pakistan's interference has increased. Look, things are going out of control and it is used to legitimize use of military suppression and to continue to use military suppression to achieve political ends when we know that it doesn't. So let's look at. We know that the number of youth joining militancy is actually increasing every year despite them saying that they're clamping down on militancy. In fact, what is remarkable, Surangya is the fact that if you look closely, Government of India now comes out and says that infiltration in 2019 has been virtually zero. There is just one single encounter in which a Jai Shem Oman militant died but he was not infiltrating, he was exfiltrating, was probably going across, returning to his base camp or whatever. So there has been none. We also know that Pakistan is now at least reportedly cracking down on its militant so-called assets that India believes is controlled or assets which are owned by the Pakistani military establishment that it is cracking down on them. Now with infiltration zero, in any case the infiltration was compared to turn of the century when it used to number into thousands. It has come down to two digits at max between 2014 and 2019. But even if this has ended, it only means that all these claims about Pakistan being in total control or whatever is happening is a make-believe and it's not true. And yet if 250 to 300 militants now that the military claims that they own 250 to 300 militants remain, it's not just the number of militants that obviously it implies that most of them are indigenous local people. So Pakistani's control is much less than what it is being touted. The other aspect is which people don't talk about is the fact that this is a singular achievement of this BJP government that not only did it see revival of Jashim Ahmad which had become defunct in 2003, it's revival in 2016-17. But we also have for the first time again after more than a decade that we see return of militancy in Channab Valley, in Kishtwar for instance. Now this is not a sign of things being under control. So this is I mean the government of India talking with a forked tongue. When it suits them, it talks about how these militants are threatening India's internal security and pose a national security threat. When it suits them, they use the same data to suggest otherwise. This is what we are experiencing right now. So I think there is a lot which has not been said, which has not been cited. It's that that one should focus on because it's then you get a complete picture. Let me end by just pointing out that the remarkable thing is that everybody talks about as if radicalization is taking place amongst Muslims alone in Kashmir, Jammu in Kashmir. Everybody again talks about the fact, not officials and of course Amit Shah never spoke of single word about it, about radicalization of Hindutva elements in Jammu. We have seen it in the case of Kathua abduction rape and killing of a girl child. We saw it in the Vigilante cases of lynchings and in the everyday experience of people it is noticed by those who live in Jammu that this is something which is unprecedented, which they are going through and experiencing right now. So I don't think things are as hunky-dory as they claim to be. This seems more like an attempt at justifying that the pursuit of the same policy by saying that we have succeeded. We have knocked out militancy, although the numbers remain the same. The forced deployment remains the same. Nothing changes. It's to suggest that things are under control and therefore they should push ahead and do the same thing and carry on with the policy of taking the war to the other side. So to say. And also what do you think about his claims on development? Because if there really is development, do we see any normalcy returning to the lives of Kashmiris? Do we see schools being opened and businesses functioning normally? Is any of that happening as well? Let me cite you two examples, say whether it is possible for development to take place. Now because of Amanath Yatra, the government in Jammu and Kashmir announced or rather the administration announced on two consecutive days on Monday and Tuesday of this week. They came out with this order saying that civilian traffic will not fly from 10 am to 3 pm every day for the next 45 days as long as Amanath Yatra like. Then the second day on Tuesday they came out with another order which said that railway service from Baniyal to Kazikunt is going to be halted for next 45 days. On 31st March in fact, 31st May in fact, an earlier order where civilian traffic had been banned from national highway for two days of a week had been that came to an end. Now this is not a sign of normalcy or encouragement to development because what you are doing is that the civilians who want to carry on with their lives, they are being prevented from actually moving around, moving to the place of work or children going to education or to schools or colleges, people who do daily wages and look for daily work are prevented from travelling to get work where they can. If by development they mean and it seems that Amit Shah only meant that Prime Minister's announcement of an 80,000 crore packet for Kashmir that 80% of the money has been transferred to Jammu and Kashmir but may a transfer of money from the centre to the state doesn't mean development. One has to see whether all the projects that the government had promised have come up. Neither all India Institute of Medical Sciences unit which was supposed to come up in Jammu that hasn't come up, IIT has not come up. So I mean what projects are they talking about and if you are disrupting the life by creating hurdles for movement of people on roads, how does it, I mean what kind of a development are they talking about? So I think there is one has to look closely to see then it's internet has become a joke in Kashmir. At the drop of a hat they freeze, they stop the internet. Now a lot of internet-based companies or IT-based companies which need to avail of high-speed internet you know to transfer data from one place to another, they are prevented for doing it. So how does it help development? I have not understood, I mean if this is what is meant by development and if development can take place despite these impediments which the government, the administration itself creates then I like to see the nature of that development before one concludes that there is development taking place. And also we see that there is still no talk of the assembly elections happening right now while they talk about democracy and they say that they have created conditions conducive to elections, they still held loks of elections but there is no talk of the assembly elections. Yeah well it seems that they wanted the Amarnath Yathra to get over before they allow assembly elections. So we might see assembly elections but there is another angle to the assembly election. It seems from reports that the administration and the BJP definitely which is in control of the administration because it is the centre calling the shots there under the precedence rule that they are trying to create a condition where it would be advantage BJP. Now for that whatever manoeuvring or manipulation has to take place seems to be going on. So once that they feel that they are prepared would be the right time as far as the government of India is concerned to decide to go in for polls where they are sure of getting a majority or being in a position to create a majority in the assembly where they can pitch for their own government. So it is not so much, it is not so much because of any you know any compulsion that they face that assembly elections have been deferred. It is more because they need time to prepare the party and consolidate its position which they plan to do under precedence rule that the elections have been deferred for the time being. So I do not see it as a big any big issue as far as for BJP is just a question of timing the proper timing when they decide. And finally Amit Shah in his speech also made it clear that any even the idea of raising the prospect of holding the promised plebiscite is totally out of the question. Kashmir remains a part of integral part of India and it will not be allowed to you know even like the idea of it being of it going away from India. Of course that is not surprising that has been BJP stance but what kind of message does this send to the Kashmiris? Look we should be clear that what is happening today in Jammu and Kashmir is an attempt at large scale disruption especially in Kashmir where they want to do away with the with established order the existing wielders of power get rid of them. That is why you see so many cases that have been filed income tax rates taking place, cases of corruption being filed against from pro-India to anti-India leaders of anti-India group and they are being ensnared in all kind of cases and things like that. This is an attempt at disrupting and destroying the banning of Jamaat-e-Islami and JKLF and especially Jamaat-e-Islami which again Amit Shah defended also fits in as part of this pattern to do away with all those who wield any kind of clout of power or influence in Kashmir existing have to be destroyed. Now in any such large scale disruption that takes place what authorities never realize and reckon with is that every disruption also begets its own resistance. What form and what shape it will take we don't know that depends on the extent of this disruption that is being attempted but that it will goes without saying and the fear is and which has been expressed by many people in the administration themselves who are part of the establishment in Jammu and Kashmir who have expressed concern at this possibility and in fact the former director of Center for Land and Warfare Studies recently in an article in the Tribune Gurmeet Kanwal pointed out that government of India would be unwise if they were to pursue this path because if tomorrow it pitches entire because now with this kind of a disruption what you do is you do away with every element even those who were earlier stood for India. Now you are going to create a polarization where they will be on one side and others would be on the other side. In this situation as Gurmeet Kanwal points out if the masses were to return to the streets no matter how large your armed forces and how much power that they enjoy they will not be able to handle that situation. Similarly people have warned that this is also going to galvanize and in fact give another boost to armed militancy and local militancy not controlled by Pakistan because Pakistan's capacity to interfere as in fact is much exaggerated it's much far less than what it is or it was once upon a time so it would be local militancy that is in it. Now these are these are things that have not been taken into account now which way therefore things will go and move we still don't know but that there will be some reaction that there will be some form of response goes without saying because as a prime minister himself so famously it said every action has its own reaction. Thank you Gautam for joining us today and that's all the time we have thank you for watching Newscript.