 Good morning and welcome to CMC markets on Thursday, the 9th of April and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 13th of April, slightly shorter working week this week and fairly short working week and next week as well due to the Easter holiday. Nonetheless, we have seen some fairly decent gains in equity markets this week, and I think there is some optimism, whether or not that's misguided or not, of course, that that we could well see a little bit of improvement in terms of infection and death rates over the course of the next few days. And the glide path could we'll start to turn lower. I think one of the key drivers this week has been comments from Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases who said that rising expectations that we could we'll see a peak in the next week or so could start to see preparations being made or an exit from some of the lockdown procedures that are currently afflicting not only European economies but also the US economy as well. Now, I certainly think that optimism is a little bit misplaced. But nonetheless, once we get these, once we get these disclaims out of the way, I'll look ahead to what markets are looking forward to over the course of the next few days. Let's start with what happened over the course of the past week or so. And certainly we've seen some decent gains in the FTSE 100 with China pushback above 5700 level. And that could well see us look to test the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level of the down move from the peaks that we saw in February to the lows that we saw in March and one of the things that I've noticed with respect to the FTSE 100 is how we've lagged behind significantly indices like the German DAX and the S&P 500 who have been able to overcome this key resistance level at 38.2% and push on towards the 50%. So keep an eye on that 5809 level on the FTSE 100. That's likely to be a key barrier going forward. If we compare that to the S&P 500, then what we have is a significant outperformance on the part of the S&P as well as the German DAX. And we are now starting to look as if we are heading into overbought territory. You can certainly see that played out on this particular chart here. This 2790 area on the S&P 500 is going to be very, very difficult. And if we round it up to around about 2,900, it's going to be a significantly tough nut to crack, I think, in the short to medium term. That's not to say that we can't make further gains, but I think what we'll need to see is for the S&P to hold above the 2645-2650 level, which is this series of highs through here, and obviously the lows of earlier this week, this area between 2630 and 2650 is likely to be a key level going forward. If we look at the German DAX, it's a similar sort of story, certainly with respect to the key resistance levels that I outlined on the S&P. Or be it, we're still significantly well short in terms of the German DAX if we zoom in on this particular chart. We've broken above the 10,100 area on the DAX, so that's likely to act as support on any pub acts. And the big level really I think is around about 10,880, 10,900 as the 50% level on any rebound or push higher going forward. Obviously a big topic this week has been crude oil. That's going to be a significant move over the course of the next few days because of the OPEC meeting, which is taking place today, as I speak, with speculation about how deep any production counts are likely to be. Numbers in the region attend to 15 million barrels a day. I did a video earlier this week where I suggested that the potential for a short squeeze on crude was quite high. We do have a G20 oil ministers meeting on Friday, and that could well also be a significant arbiter for a kick higher in crude oil prices. Significant resistance, as I indicated earlier this week in my weekly video, or in a video earlier this week, through these highs here around about $31 a barrel. A short squeeze through that area for a bit of a push higher in the event that oil ministers do against the odds come to some form of production cut which is spread across the entire purge of oil producers. You can see on the daily chart here how significant this series of highs is and the fact that every single dip that we've seen the short positions have waited less and less time to buy into it. So it does appear to be based on this chart, pressure for a little bit of a squeeze higher to around about $35 a barrel. Of course whether or not we get that is an entirely moot point. So those are the key levels on on the key indices. Let's now look ahead to the week coming up the four day week coming up, and we've got a whole host of data coming out of China. And that's going to be I think very very important in the context of how well the Chinese economy has rebounded in the wake of the slowdown that we've seen in Q1. Now we're going to get first quarter GDP from China. And this is expected to show that the Chinese economy contracted in Q1. The big question is by how much, you know, will it give us an indication as to what's coming our way. In terms of the contraction that we've seen in the UK economy, the German economy, the Italian economy, the French economy, where we've seen estimates of 6% contractions in the French economy, 10% contractions in the German economy against the backdrop of really massively rising unemployment towards the back end of March. So at the moment we don't really have any clear idea of how bad the data is going to be. It's just really a question of degrees of badness, if you like. We've got the Chinese GDP numbers coming out on the 17th of April or there or thereabouts. We've also got the latest China trade numbers for March from 15th of April, which should give us an indication as to how much the Chinese economy rebounded after the lockdown that we saw in February. The February numbers for China trade saw exports plunged by 17.2%. So you would expect to see a little bit of an improvement on that, though any improvements are likely to be more on the domestic side than internationally because most of China's trading counterparts have been in lockdown for most of March. So the amount of exports they would have been able to export to the US, Europe and what have you are likely to be fairly limited by the fact that people weren't going out and spending money. So the Chinese trade numbers due out on the 15th. We've also got US page book survey of economic indicators, which is likely to paint a horrific picture of a US economy in a self induced coma for most of March. And we've also got the final set of jobless claims numbers, which should give us a decent idea of what to expect from the April payrolls report. We're due to get the latest weekly jobless claims numbers later today for the third week of that particular month and they're likely to come in around six and a half million. Don't have sight of those numbers yet, but anything in the region of five or six million is really going to be putting the non-farm payrolls report for April in the high 15 to 20 million job losses for the April report, which is likely to be a particularly horrific number. And that's why you've seen further speculation about additional stimulus measures from the US government. Another one and a half trillion dollar program being put forward by Nancy Pelosi on the Democrat side of the house, which could target small businesses hospitals as well as an additional payment to under pressure American families. So we had a quick look at gold. Now we're going to. We've also got it's also a big week for American banks. We've got earning season starting in the US in earnest. And we've got earnings numbers from JP Morgan Chase city group Wells Fargo Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. For the purposes of this video, I'm going to be looking at JP Morgan in particular, simply because they've been the standout out performer for US banks over the course of the past 12 months. And I think one of the main characteristics, particularly around JP Morgan's numbers has been how good they've been. They've been a decent bellwether of the US economy over the course of the past two years. They posted record revenues and profits in successive successive quarters over the past 12 months. And in January, the bank posted revenues of $29.2 billion, which was a record for Q4 with decent gains across all of its business areas. Q4 profits also came at $8.52 billion with recent volatility, likely to have boosted its investment banking division in Q1. JP Morgan is not just an investment bank. It's also a retail bank in the US. And the slowdown in the US economy in March is likely to have hit revenues in the area of home loans, autos and credit cards. With this in mind, this week's numbers from the likes of the US banks are likely to come in at the lower end of expectations. And what's more important is how they guide in terms of the outlook going forward. Most banks, most companies are withdrawing their guidance and I fully expect JP Morgan and the other US banks to do exactly the same thing. So particularly Wells Fargo, which has a much more domestic focus for US banks than its peers of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup. So let's look at this Morgan. This is JP Morgan chart and we can see that we're getting what looks like a little bit of a triangular consolidation here in terms of trading off the lows, but finding it very, very difficult to get through that $100 area, which is actually resistance on pullbacks over the course of the past few weeks and was one of the highs around about the end of March. So I'll be looking at that key area there, looking at the support line coming in through these lows here for the next move in terms of JP Morgan and anywhere JP Morgan generally tends to go you'll probably find the rest of the US banking system follows. So keep an eye on JP Morgan. These numbers are out on the 14th and the 15th of April. So that's going to be a significantly important day in terms of the overall direction as well for US markets more broadly. In terms of Citigroup here, slightly more nuanced with a significant resistance around about $46 and through that line there, but also a similar sort of trend line in terms of the overall direction of the rebound that we've seen since the piece that we saw in January. So that's it for this week. Let's just have a quick look at gold for you. I think it's going to be a similar sort of story with respect to gold is struggling anywhere near 1680 the the the highs of the last few months we can see that through here. We had a peak here around about 1680 wasn't able to follow through hasn't really closed above 1680 at all over the course of the last few weeks. And it's going to take I think something significantly substantial for us to move through that over the course of the next few days and few weeks. So close about 1680 could well signal a move through 1700s and a potential revisit of the all time highs 1800 my my long term my long term target for gold still remains the all time highs at around about 1800. So that's that's pretty much it for this week's week ahead. Thanks very much for tuning in. And before we wind it up, I'll just wish you all a very nice Easter, a very nice weekend. And I will speak to you all all next week. Have a great Easter. And thanks for listening.