 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, everyone. Good morning and welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrade.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. So another crazy week and a really, really crazy week of trading. Again, anybody who talks about that the summertime trading is slow and uneventful, you really have to really reconsider the stocks that you're trading. With all the IPOs have been going absolutely bananas, with all the beta names having really good, really good ranges most days. It really is setting up to be a second coming of last summer. If you guys remember last summer, you guys were trading. It was very, very aggressive. So I think anybody who talks about that summer is slow, uneventful, lethargic and all good stuff. Yeah, you can have slower days because people are vacationing, kids are out of school and all that good stuff. Absolutely. But I think if you already put it into your mind that summer is going to be uneventful, you're really missing the boat. So far it's been some really good action. So let's talk about the tape, right? Let's talk about what happened last week. Again, very strong, right? Very, very strong moves from the indexes. And we'll talk about the individual ramifications in a second. Aggressive move by the IPOs. I think all you guys who've been trading, even the last month, you see how aggressive moves, BYND and CHW2, whatever the symbol, FVRR and PSNL, all these crazy IPOs. And it really is a testament how people will continuously bid up aggressive, exciting shares, right? Aggressive, exciting shares. You had the Fed this week, talking about a promise of potential easing. You had China and the United States continuing, right? The two and a half year courtship continuing their progression to trade deal. And this led to really good aggressive action this week. We did have a couple of days that you kind of had to scratch your head because the price correlation did not kind of meet up with the indexes. I'll show you guys in a second, especially with the technology names. But overall, very, very aggressive action. You see here how the NASDAQ 100, everybody talks about a V-shaped recovery. Well, this is as V as you can get. I mean, there's nothing else you can look. This is as V as you can get going from an incredibly oversold scenario to an incredibly overbought scenario. But the difference between this market rally versus the generational market rally or decline that I saw when I started trading is that the indexes don't matter. And again, if you've been watching these updates for even a couple of years, you kind of know my stance on indexes. Indexes are just a guide. There's no such thing anymore as a bull or bear market. They're strong bear intervals. They're strong bull intervals. And it's all about individual process, individual timeframes. Again, for all you guys who don't know, again, I trade the 60-minute channels. These are my ranges. These are my micro channels with a macro range. And it keeps me safe. And more important, not only does it keep me safe, it gives me a very, very long-gated view of potential and measure potential. That's the most important part for what I do, the stocks that I do trade. But I think the most important part I think that we saw this week was the continuation of individual technical analysis. And the way I started out, for all you guys who don't know when you're watching this, I started out a generic trade with Carl and Equities. We had, between 99 and probably 2000 and 2001, one of the strongest desks, proprietary trading desks, during that time. During the time of Schoenfeld and Broadway and World Co., all these really heavyweight trading desks. And the greatest part about that time, when you were trading at that time, you really needed to be on a desk. For you to develop as a trader, you really needed to be on a desk surrounded by good, smart guys. And the one thing that we had a tremendous advantage of that time, everybody was on the same team. No matter what personal relationships people had, strong, negative or indifferent, everybody wanted to win. And everybody wanted to see their buddy to the right of them, buddy to the left of them, win as well. And we kind of really fed off of each other's energy because it was a natural comradity because everybody knew how challenging this markets was, but we wanted to win together. And the information flow was so good that most traders would develop a lot faster because you had that personal interaction. These days are completely different. Majority of traders right now are trading from home. They are really put in a negative tone that they feel like they need to learn everything right away. They feel that they have to cram 20 years of knowledge into two weeks. And if they don't pick it up in two weeks, they can feel their failure. And the problem is, and I continue to talk about this because it's the reality. The problem is most traders, especially sitting at home, their only exposure to the stock market or the trading world is social media. It's just the truth. Social media. It's very rare that a new trader, unless you're getting hired for a very specific desk, it's very, very rare that you have that social interaction with another human being that can kind of show you the ropes, might not show you everything, but will give you a little bit of tidbits here and there that you could build a foundation organically. Now the problem is, the majority of new traders, again, I classify anybody's trading less than three years as a new trader, that they believe that their progression needs to be done, not today, but yesterday. And unfortunately, because of such deeming information, you are really collecting bad information. And I can tell this by some of the responses to ideas that I have that I'm trading on social media. So for example, I could be short, you know, I could be short Tesla and I'll get 50 responses while I'm wrong, right? Or I could be long Tesla and I'll get 50 responses while I'm wrong. And the problem is, you're trying to fight reality. You're trying to fight reality and technical analysis, because you feel you need to be right. Okay, you need to be right. You need to be right right now. You have to show the guy who's 45 years old that you are the 22 year old has been trading for three years, you're smarter than him. You have to prove something yourself. The problem is the stock market doesn't work that way. Trading doesn't work that way. The trading gods, they don't care if you're 45, 25 or 15. If you're a money on the line, you are a potential victim. Okay, you're a potential victim. And the most important part, and I see new traders really, it's pretty obvious when somebody's telling me that I'm wrong on the trade. Okay, it's pretty obvious that your information or your information intake is just flawed. And it doesn't matter if you're trading the year, two years, three years, hell, even five years. Okay, if you're processing wrong information, then your experience level is a mood point. Okay, the trading journey is completely different from everybody. Okay, you could be trading for a year and you'll really get it, right? You'll really, really get it. Okay, you could be trading for five years and don't have a clue whatsoever. And that's okay. In both cases are okay. And the problem is that people put so much pressure on themselves that they need to figure everything out now that they missed the big picture. Okay, they missed the big picture that everybody develops different, that everybody has a different lifestyle, that everybody has a different account size, that everybody has a different paint threshold, everybody's different. Nobody trades the same. It's very, very rare that you find two traders, two random traders that can be trading exactly the same. So why put yourself in a position, why put yourself in the corner that you feel that you need to be better than somebody else, that you need to be smarter than somebody else, that you need to impress somebody else. It's you versus you. The stock market has nothing to do with your imminent success or failure. It's all about you taking information, processing, and really seeing if that information is actually proper for your trading stock. Because again, remember, I trade pivots. You could trade, you could trade for us. What do we have in common, right? What do we have in common? But the common bond, okay, no matter how you trade, the common bond because you don't have that personal relationship sitting on a trading desk. You don't have the ability to go out and have a drink and really pick the brain of a seasoned trader. The one common denominator, no matter if you're trading options, stocks, forex, crypto. Whatever you're trading is technical analysis. And for the most traders who are trading at home and the only exposure you have is the social media, well, you better make sure that the information you're processing is correct. Because if not, okay, you're going backwards. You're not going forwards. And then at some point, your mind is going to start forcing things, the walls, the proverbial walls, they're going to start closing. And if you're processing wrong information, you are really a walking corpse. You just don't know it yet. The one thing that can save you, okay, the one literally thing that could save you is technical analysis. And we've been talking about the foundation of any trading system that believe in anything worthwhile technical is the pure technical analysis. Okay, our opinions, again, they don't matter. I'm an idiot. I'll be the first person to admit this. Not only am I an idiot. Again, as I say it, I am king of the idiots. Okay, so nobody can have that title. Okay, but the one thing that I do know is that I could trust. Okay, I don't need another trader's opinion. I don't need to, you know, I don't need to, you know, to pull 12 traders if I should go along with short Tesla. It's right in front of us, guys. It's all right in front of us. This is all information that everybody's on the self playing field. Everybody has exactly the same information in front of them. Your choice, okay, as an aspiring trader or a professional trader, whether to accept technical analysis or brush it to the side. Again, it's no matter, it doesn't make a single difference. Okay, what another trader is doing? What another trading is saying? What another trader's opinion is? It's you versus the collection of data that we talk about every single week and seeing how it plays out in real time with your hard earned money. So if you're trading at home, okay, the last thing you want to do is go on a message board to try to figure out what the opinion is, what the gauge is, what the landscape is of a stock that you want to trade. It's all right in front of you guys. It really is. It's all right in front of you. You don't need anybody. Okay, you don't need anybody to succeed if you believe in the power of technical analysis and I'm not talking about pivots. My pivots, the way I trade my pivots are completely different than anybody else trades theirs. This is a fact. Okay, this is a fact. This is not something that I found off YouTube and I'm running with. I created this stuff. It works for me. Will it work for you? Maybe, maybe not. I have no idea. Okay, every individual trader is completely built different. But at least I have, at least I have the process of looking at a chart and really seeing in three seconds whether it's bad, good or indifferent, and if there is an edge for me to capitalize. The problem is when you're a new trader, you're looking for, you're looking to put yourself in a position that you want to be right, that you want to be noticed, that you're proving yourself to somebody else that you're smart too. We're a tribe of idiots. Okay, guys, new traders. Just understand this. All traders, we're a tribe of idiots. We really are. We're a tribe of idiots. The only thing that can help us are all these little squiggly lines or all these little bars, they're all these little candles. They're portraying a story for us. They're telling us what potentially could happen next. Your goal is to completely omit the olive branch of 19 different opinions to try to figure out how this, how all this information right here that you see in front of you is going to play into your future endeavors of a trader, whether it's good, bad or different, if you want to go long, whether you go short. But the idea that you need to, you need to put yourself in a situation that you have to prove yourself to anybody is ridiculous. It's all up to you. Okay, whether you sink or swim in this business, it's all up to you. At the end of the day, it's like golf. You could be like Team USA versus Team God knows, Team Europe in the Ryder Cup. At the end of the day, you're a team. At the end of the day, you're an individual golfer. You're an individual golfer. You're playing for yourself. At the end of the day, nobody's going to remember you. Nobody cares, guys. It's not about being social media famous. It's about being correctly positioned that your journey is positioned the right way. And you are in a position to win 10 years from now. So again, technical analysis, folks, technical analysis, technical analysis, these charts matter. Okay, this is the difference between you having a trading career or a winning trade. Okay. And again, you don't need to talk to another trader telling them that they're wrong. Again, I said this many times, no professional trader. We laugh at you. Right. If you're telling a 30, 40, 50 year old man and you're 21 years old that they're wrong on the trade, we're laughing at you. Okay, because it doesn't make a difference. You're trying to prove to yourself that it matters. You don't matter, at least not to us. Matter to yourself. Okay, matter to yourself. Take this business seriously. Trust technical analysis, fall in love with technical analysis, and you'll see your training getting better and better. But again, the guy from, you know, the guy on Twitter handle, fuck you, you know, fuck you daily. Okay, I promise you, I'm not listening to his opinion on my Tesla trade. So again, fall in love with technical analysis, look at charts daily, and again, slowly but surely that light bulb will sink in. Okay, so let's talk about the tape, right? Very, very aggressive, very, very aggressive cycle of buying and selling this week. V shape recovery, is it? Is it not? I don't know. It looks like that way for certain. Again, bear case, too much, too fast. We're going to go lower. Well, we just trapped a whole bunch of shorts on a very, very long trend line. We're going higher. We'll go higher next week. We have no idea. Again, this is what we use technical analysis for. We trust the charts and we try to figure out what happens next. 3%, pretty much 3% all across the board on all indexes. Again, you have progression of a Trump China settlement. You have potential easing for the FOMC. And more important, you have ridiculous amount of strength and speculation money, especially for these IPO stocks, probably one of the strongest IPO market I can remember in a pretty, pretty long time. One thing, and again, I always play doubles advocate. The one thing I did not like. Okay, you would figure after 3% move, you would have really ridiculous strong moves in beta. Here's what I didn't like. Again, I always like to play doubles advocate. I always like to look at the market from, you know, from, from the bad side, right? So, if you look at stocks, for example, like Amazon, even though Amazon had really, really good week, right? Really good week and is gapping up and all that good stuff. If you look at the 60 minute view on Amazon, just to give you an example, right? You'll notice, you'll notice something very, very, something stands out, right? Gap of on futures sold off the rest of the day. Gap up on futures sold off the rest of the day, Gap of on futures sold off the rest of the day, Gap of on futures write, you look in the video, pretty much the same thing every single day. You look at, for example, you look at Facebook again, same thing every single every single day, Alibaba. And again, this is direct correlation with China. Gap ups sell off the whole day. Gap ups sell off the whole day. Gap ups sell off the whole day. And the one thing that, you know, you can make an argument, okay, that this market, because we are putting in such an aggressive V shaped recovery, at least from the lows, at least from the lows of June, okay, you can make an argument that all these gap days that will fade for the rest of the day are just trapping more, you know, trapping more bears. But again, at some point, you have to look at the futures and say to yourself, well, there's something under the hood that might be a little bit skewed. And if you look at the NASDAQ 100, right, if you look at exactly just as a, just a correlating top of this area here, we're very, very close to having a pretty important day. Okay, a very, very important day. The top of this channel right here is roughly the 191 area. Okay, and you can see how close we're getting back to this 191 area. And because of, and because of what we're seeing in the stocks that had really major, really major ranges to the upside that are really not participating outside of the big gap up in the futures, it's starting to really make me think, and this is where we talk about gathering information and collecting data. We're starting to look like a potential double top could be forming. Okay, we're not there yet. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, it's not going to cost me any money. But at least, again, I'm starting to formulate an early opinion. So for example, Roku, one of them, you know, one of the bigger, stronger moves, you know, in the last couple of months, again, if you look at the 60 minute view, you keep on seeing really, really aggressive sellers right after the open. Again, and this is despite pretty aggressive coal buyers coming in, aggressive sellers being cleaned up, all these things. And if you start getting one or two stocks that are doing this, you say to yourself, well, maybe it's just isolated, you start getting a whole group of stocks doing this, maybe you have something more. So I think going into this week, it's very, very important for us to kind of continue to see what happens if this trend continues, what happens if Monday, we gap up again, right? We gap up again, 150 points. Again, if Amazon starts selling off again, that's a problem. If Alibaba starts selling off again, that's a problem. If Apple starts selling off again, that's a problem. And then it goes from a problem to a trend. And that's when I think we start looking on the downside, because again, at the end of the day, and again, we have to prepare for this, nobody's saying it's going to happen. But at the end of the day, the market is just not going to tap us on the shoulder and say, hey, by the way, we're going to sell off, we're going to sell off aggressively, and you better have a chair in the game of musical chairs or you're going to die. And it's a very, very important part of not giving back weeks and weeks of profits because you were, had your blinders on, you had your rose-colored glasses, and you didn't believe it's going to happen. This has happened right in front of us. Whether you choose to accept this or not is a whole different story. And this is why we talk about how technical analysis is the most important part, except for our, for our opinions, they'll make a difference. So I think going into this week, I'm starting to get a little bit, a little bit biased to the sell side. Okay, a little bit biased. I want to see this week how, I want to see this week how these names handle prosperity again. Again, for a perfect example, Disney had a chance to break out like 68 times this week. Okay, like Louis, 68 times this week, the 143 went only up 50 cents, crashed, went up again, above the 143, went down $1.50, went up again to 1.142, took out a range, went down another $2. So you're having strong stocks that everybody was bidding up just two months ago, or excuse me, three weeks ago on this really, really good aggressive V-shape recovery, they're starting to lag and they're starting to lag very, very noticeably. So going into this week, I want to be a little bit cautious, especially for Monday's trading day. If we gap up and these stocks do not rally on this gap up, it's very, very important to start looking at 60 minute ranges to the downside. Because again, if these things start to pull, okay, like perfect example, like a Roku, right? If they start to pull, you have a lot of room to the downside, as you can see here, right? Technically we're starting to get a little bit of damage here, and we're starting to look like we're going lower. Disney, the same thing, all it takes is one more day of selling, and you've got a confirmation back to the downside. You've got Amazon who's, again, looks great. Again, $3,000 a share in a year, $12,000 a share, whatever you want. Okay, I believe you. Yes, I agree. But if Amazon starts losing the 5-day moving average, which is the shortest part of sentiment for me, we're going to go low. Okay, we're going to go lower. And this is not an opinion, this is technical facts. So I really want to keep an eye on all these beta names, especially Monday at the Open, and we want to see what happens when the futures rally. If they don't participate, I think we will start looking at the sell buys. Strong week, Thursday and Friday were a little bit slower for me. The liquidity, especially Friday, the liquidity was not what I wanted. Okay, let's just say that. The fact that it was quadruple-witching, the open for me was really, really tough. You guys notice like Tesla was trading at a $0.60, $0.70 spread. Netflix, for example, even though I caught a pretty good trade on Netflix, and we'll talk about the individual pivots, it was so hard to buy, because number one, there were like a $0.20, $0.30 spreads, you were hoping for offers to come in. Okay, because of the spreads and because of the liquidity, I was hoping in a weird way that more sellers would come because I knew how good the chart was. And Friday was a little bit tough to get really good liquidity, especially at the Open, but it was so important just to kind of realize the landscape. And the more I looked at the market, especially from Friday's session, the more I realized that it wasn't going to be an advantageous day. We did catch some things. There were a couple of good bounces. I caught some Tesla. I caught some Netflix. I had one losing trade. I started a swing on a half position on, I think it was CTVA. It sold off when I logged back today. I noticed I got stopped out. I think I lost like $0.25, $0.30 on it. But it was really kind of one of those odd days that the stocks that I did trade, or I do trade on a daily basis, really didn't participate, right? Especially, you know, and again, we had a great red day for indexes. It really shouldn't make a difference. If you look at all the 60-minute charts, for example, on an Amazon, and on an Amazon look bad, never rallied, NVIDIA, Alibaba, Roku, right? Roku, Apple, right? Apple, Disney looked, you know, Disney just something, something's wrong with it. The only one that's done that, actually, there's two that stand out. The only two that stand out for potential strength going into this week is Tesla, right? Tesla, because you could see the 60-minute channel forming, right? You could see the 60-minute channel forming, and Netflix, right? And Netflix that had a pretty good run. Good call buying all week, especially in the July 375s. There were active buyers in there as well. So again, going into this week, I am at least initially sell bias. I do like the IPO game continuous. I think the morning will provide good opportunities for us to buy stronger names into a 60-minute rising support. And then once that first candle comes, if these stocks still can't rally, I will start looking for confirmation ranges. So let's talk about Friday's session. It was a really good trade. It could have been a lot better if the liquidity was good. So Netflix rejection, 360, 660 twice, needs to confirm, 367. I took this as a second entry. It was just not enough stock for me to buy. It just wasn't enough stock for me to buy at 367, and it kind of took it right really quickly. So it put an initial move to like 367, 30s or 40s, and it was still no liquidity. It was just so tough to buy, it retraced. And this is what we talk about a second entry. Let it go through the pivot, let it establish a new high, let it retrace, and once it goes through the high, that's called the second entry. So I was trying to get stock above like 367, 40s, 50s, and I started buying some in the 40s, and then I added more in the 50s, and the stock finally went. The stock finally went, and it did fine. There was nothing wrong with it. It went to like 371, but man, it was just so tough to buy stock. And again, the one thing I always tell traders, it doesn't make a difference how good the move is. If you don't have enough liquidity, if you're not properly to your size, what's the difference? Stock above 10, if you don't have enough size, what's the difference? So it was very, very frustrating. It did what it had to do, but again, not the liquidity that I really wanted to, but again, as I say all the time, let your worst trade be a green one. Tesla Tesla, that 316 level, never confirmed. Again, we're looking for that second entry above that lowest print, never confirmed, got stronger. We'll talk about that. I actually had a Tesla pivot right here, and I actually bought this thing. It was right over here. I actually bought this thing coming above this 21 area. And again, I didn't post this. I didn't post this. We only did this trade in the live webinar. I didn't post this on the Twitter feed because this wasn't a true pivot. I bought this because a buyer came in pretty aggressively. I think he paid, I think he was buying the 232 weekly calls. I think he was going into the 232 weekly calls. So I bought it off that option sweep, and it ran up like a dollar and changed. I had some good cash flow in that as well. And then we were just waiting for that second wave that never came. What else? What else? What else? What else? What else? Kern, it went red to green, went up like a dollar and change. I don't really play this stuff. PSNL woke up really, really aggressively. Congratulations to you guys who took this towards the end of the day. 2950 needs to build if it wakes up later. And here was PSNL, that 2950, right, the big move, 3160 had a $2 push. Chewie, good job for you guys I didn't trade this thing. I don't have a locate for these things. Negative comments, I forgot by who. 3315, 33 for builds below. It can flush. Here was the Chewie chart, right? So you had that 3315 area, 3315 area, went all the way down to like 3120. Good job for you guys who caught that as well. TRI really exploded towards the end of the day. We talked about a 2920 build. And look, TLR wise, this is the greatest thing in the world. No, it's not. But it put in this initial move of that 4920 pivot to 4950. And once it broke that 4950, went to 5103. So good job for you guys who caught that as well. And here's a perfect example of like, this is why really, I just don't trade a lot of random names. I really like the setup here. So I bought the CTVA. I bought the CTVA. I started to swing on it. It was, you know, supposedly a swing on it, right? So I bought the CTVA and I knew the bottom of the channel was going to be only 30 cents or 25, 30 cents, whatever it was. So I bought it and it just never, it just never, it never did anything. Very, very liquid stock. So I love the liquidity, but never did anything. I think I took like 25, 30 cent loss and I got stopped out on this thing. I'll rewatch it again this week. A little disappointing again, considering it's coming off a bottom channel, that it potentially all it needed to do is reclaim this level and it just really couldn't do so. A lot of sellers there, maybe it'll be better this week. Amazon never confirmed went up like two, three bucks and then the market weakness. And this is kind of how I really, I was looking at the table. I said, well, if they can't rally, especially after the really, really big move, you know, one of the gonna rally, this is kind of why I started collecting data for a possible, you know, possible sell off this week. And I still like Tesla. I really like this Tesla, especially if it starts building, especially if it starts building over this channel here, close to the 223 level, if it gets above 223, it does have a lot of potential. So let me give you guys some plays that I do like this week. And then you guys will enjoy the rest of your Sunday. Let's talk about some plays that do look pretty good. For all you guys are training these small cap stocks, look at this KPTI, really nice looking chart, guys, really, really nice looking chart. Look at the tight flag here. If it starts building above this like 645, 650 level, gorgeous, gorgeous chart potentially can go by the congratulations for all you guys this week in the live webinar and not only did you guys catch it on the long side when the stock closed right here, a lot, I know a lot of you guys got one, the 185 and the 200 calls huge, huge move. But then there was a mass massive pivot on the 182, 182 area. And we talked about the 160 that broke below. And again, everybody loves the growth story. But look at the six, you know, look at the 60 minute view, look at the daily chart. If this thing confirms 150 and starts building below guys, yes, I love meatless meat, right? That's what she said. Okay, once this thing starts building below 150, you have a measured potential all the way down to this 130, 128 level. So keep an eye on that. Roku, I like it lower. I like Roku lower. Again, it closed below the five day close below the 10 day. If it starts reclaiming, if the bulls give up that 102 30 102 level, it has room to 99. So keep an eye on that. I kind of like this PRVB. It looks like a, you know, it looks like a recent actually, it's not a recent IPO thinking just get above this range here. 1280 13 maybe starts this next leg up. And I kind of like this ST okay, it looks like a recent IPO as well. Look at the 60 minute view guys, right? Everybody see this? So the top of the range here, 2755, 2750, 2740, if they could start building above like 2760, right? 2760, maybe 28 with this crazy IPO market, who knows, maybe this thing tests the IPO high. So guys, having great, awesome weekend for those you guys who are joining us in the live webinar, please get there at nine o'clock. We start morning strategy then for all you guys who are trading via the live Twitter feed. It's an awesome, awesome alternative for not being in the live webinar because again, the pivots, right? Begin the pivot. So guys, have a great, great weekend. Have a great Sunday. God bless and I'll see you all in the future tomorrow. Take care. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS 60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.