 Hi allun, Eddie daτwch yn y desg yw Llywよ, gyda chi'n rhaid i gael o'r coronavirus, rwy'n meddwl y ddim yn y llei'n sgolach i'r perffarlant, rydyn ni fydd yw'n ddigwydd o fewn amser, ac fel hynny hynny'n meddwl, yn amlwg y fideo, rwy'n gweithio'n trefnu amdifanc arwod, mae gweithio'r virus dyna bydd cymryd dddangos, felly rwy'n trafnio'r prifs, â'r ddin yn gofyn o'r ddiadwyr, ac rwy'n girthio a ddefnyddio'r sydd. We're going to be talking about the end of the bull market today. I hope you enjoyed the video last week. I've got some really good feedback and really positive comments. Thank you all for tuning in, leaving your comments. Definitely leave your comments down in this video. If you enjoy anything, if you want any video recommendations. If you want me to look at a particular thing. I do listen to the feedback. A few comments I took into account. From the last video I'm now covering in this video. Efallai yma chusio'r hyfforddioli nhw'r form i adŷu schwaith, Deicreu'r modd mwyaf o'r dweud a os gall yoursk yn dweudilo num braketh feddwl cyffredin mor ychyd если ch yn j professions Eu monnig yma escalir yn dda. Yn ddim mwyaf y methu yma hwn o wh��der在no за i dd gim yn ei dyma ch foot y gall hyfforddiol wedi dweud iddo. Kalau gyda chi cofnwch â'n aims gofyni Er eu chlaslaroedd hon再aethhedd yma – Elin o'r gwirio y 19 y byddwch yn ymwneud wrth ymwneud hynny, yw'r angen o'r cyfle cyntaf o'i gwirio ymhyn yn cael eu collad o'r Gwyrddol Gwyrddol, a'r ysgrifennu yma, dwi'n gweithio'r unrhyw ffordd o'r gwirio'r ysgrifennu o'r angen o'r cyffredin i'r unrhyw ffawr y 11 ymlaen. Ymlaen i'r ffordd o'r ffordd o'r cyffredin a'r angen o'r cyffredin ymlaen. felly we had Christine Lagardef, Y ECB a Y Ffederal Reserv yesterday issuing their policy actions. We're going to take a look at the credit markets and some potential falling angels that I'm going to discuss later. And I'm sure, unfortunately a lot of you have been hurt by some of the market moves I think everyone has. I saw H2O Asset Management, one of the firms in the city lost 30% there, well 30% on Monday. Yn ymlaenio'r proffesiwnol ydy'r cyfwyr o gweithio'r amser o gweithio'r ysgol. Rydych chi'n gweithio'r pwysig y fideo aeth yw'r gweithio'r cyfrannu? Yn ymlaenio i'r ddweud? Yn ymlaenio i'r ddweud? Ond yn ymlaenio'r syniadol y dyma yw'r defnyddio'r amser? Yn ymlaenio'r amser? Ond yna yw'r cyfrannu'r ymlaenio'r cyfrannu? A'r prifysgol eich parodau erbyn. Yn y cas, mae'r cyntaf iawn yn phasgau pandemig ac mae hynny'n gweld peirio fawr i'n gyffredig sydd wedi'i fawr o'u gwirio. Roeddwn i wneud yr hyn o'r moll fawr o'r rhai oedd y Gŷedd, ond gwyddech chi i'r sefydliad yr oedd wahanol. Ond mae hi oes, rwy'n gwein, yma gwaith oedd y Welllol. 130,000 o taethig gwaith yn gwaith, ond 70,000 o'r swydd hefyd. Mae hyn o'r cymaint y gallu arall ar y brifiddor. Ond y mewn diemgyrchu'r cyfarwydol wedi'i amgylchedd ac yn ddiddordeb hwnnw, ond oes dy'r cynhyrchu i ddoch i'r bod ni wedi'n gweithio ar y cyfrifau rydych chi'n cyfrifau'n dwarton o'r dda yn gweithio canig neu ddiddordeb mae mor hwnnw yn feth yn ddweud i ddweud i ni am berthyniol o'r bwerd. mae'n cyfrifau sylÙn yn ddiddordeb hwnnw yn weld, ond ond y mewn diemgyrchu'r cyfrifau yn ddiddordeb hwnnw 60% of people that get infected. I am very concerned about our health system, particularly the elderly that are the most vulnerable. I am very concerned about that. My mum actually works for the NHS, and I know that they have been on the huge stress anyway. So this kind of influx of coronavirus is going to be extremely damaging to them, and I think it's worth noting how well all of the health professionals in this country are doing on the front line, you know, not afraid to get infected just to help people. So I think that's worth noting as well. The S&P daily performance, Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, even the big fan names now are down, you know, a lot. This is a blood bath of red. Obviously the energy names being hit extremely badly, but also financials now, Boeing, again, down a huge amount, all the airlines, cruise liners, and there's talk about bailouts for the cruise liners and airlines at now at the moment coming from America, which is completely shocking. And I think all in the good times, all these companies being levering up, taking all this cheap money, and now I think it's kind of echoes the financial crisis where now in the good times, you know, they do very well. But when, you know, the bad times come and viruses expose weaknesses in the markets and with companies specifically, you know, they expect to be bailed out. So we'll obviously wait and see and watch that situation. But there is talk of that at the moment. The financials have been down quite largely recently as well. The year to date performance. So still, you know, Amazon, Microsoft, they are reasonably flat on the year. But the obviously the energy names again financials JP Morgan down 31% Bank of America down 35%. There's there will be opportunities in these names for sure. I think there is my view is bearish for all all banks at the moment from the video that I recorded last week. So if you haven't watched that, check the link in description. I'll put that there. So JP Morgan Bank of America, if you if you want to see, I know talked about some of the stocks that I'm watching in the last video, but if you want to see some of the levels that I'm looking at, definitely comment down below. And that can be a future video of some really attractive levels for the long term that I'm looking at for, you know, the fangs, some of the banks and some other stocks I'm looking at 2019 feels like a long time ago 2020 was meant to be the year of the election. So Donald Trump facing the presidential election is definitely now the year of the virus global growth expectations have been impacted very severely. But earnings were meant to be improving. I think EM was meant to be the trade this year. Now that's turned into a huge pain trade. We had the resolution of the trade war. The phase one deal was signed. It's obviously going to be a big boost for the economy globally and different different countries. But now and that's one of the biggest worries. I think when people were heading into the year, they were reasonably optimistic as a result of that phase one deal. And I think people will be light on their hedging. And as a result, like you saw the biggest asset class performance last year, crude oil up 34%, the best performing asset. The crude oil was down 30% last Monday, right? So that just shows you how many gains from 2019 have just been completely wiped out US stocks up 31%. Small caps are getting hit hugely. The small to medium size enterprises like the Russell 2000 in the US getting hit. Canadian stocks have even fallen below that 2018 sell off that we saw across all equity indices. Fear is driving financial markets. So this is a fear and greed index coming from CNN. And you can see and I really what I want you to focus on is this one month ago that greed was driving financial markets. So that's how people were positioned in their portfolios, in their kind of short short term positions at more tactical plays now. Extreme fear. Extreme fear one week ago. So fear is definitely definitely driving financial markets. And you see this with the panic panic buying and stuff in supermarkets that you see all over social media. Bitcoin falls out of bed. This is kind of addressing a comment I saw in the previous video and thanks for that comment. I thought Bitcoin was meant to be the safe haven, this digital gold. You know, there's been a crypto route, I think, where everything's been falling. I think there's almost nowhere to hide at the moment. But you know, Bitcoin was down 20% today. And this is not an asset class we trade or analyse it amplify. But I saw this and God down 20% in one day. So if you look if you liked Bitcoin at 8000, you're going to like it a lot more at 6000 if you are a crypto trader investor. And so does gold. So gold fell out of bed yesterday as well. And gold is meant to be the safe haven asset that's done extremely well over the last 18 months really. But it was down 3% yesterday and this huge move just in a couple of minutes. I think the thought from the desk was that someone basically dumped 16 billion in nominal terms of gold. And I think it was 100,000 contracts, futures contracts of gold. And the price just saw this wicked move downward. So really there is almost nowhere to hide at the moment. The FTSE, we can't go without talking about this. FTSE was down 10% and this was the biggest draw down since 1987. The German Dax was down around 13%. The FTSE Mib in Italy was down about 17% as well. All the European indices were down huge double digits. Deutsche Bank was down 18%. I saw they have had a bit of a rebound this morning so I can see the FTSE is up 4%. Dax up 3%. Eurostax stocks up 3.4%. S&P futures up 4%. But it really was a terrible day for financial markets yesterday. Not since 1987. It's crazy to see it. It really was history in the making. But again, everything else as well. So this is the MSCI World Index and it's now trading at more than 20% below its peak, peak to trough. And this was meant to be the trade this year. Global growth expectations were meant to rebound this year. Earnings were meant to improve. So imagine how many people were positioned on the flip side of this and how much pain they would be facing now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, I think a really worthwhile thing of saying is that when people start whipping out the longer term charts, I think that's definitely a sign of caution. But as you can see, since this chart started in 1900s, 1999, you can see that there has been huge wealth creation and this is looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But you can see how little this sell-off really is in the context of things. But I think when people start whipping out longer term charts, that's when people are really quite scared and this is a log chart just to let you know. So let's get down into the actual crux of the video. So this actually comes as a result of Gorman but also Bank of America. So they cut their global growth forecasts indicating that the bull market is over. Their old 2020 forecast for global growth was sitting at 2.8% GDP and now the new one is 2.2% and they've also outlined their kind of recessionary scenario where global growth is actually cut in half. And this is obviously looking at China. 5.2% was their previous forecast. Down to 3.2% global growth ex-China. So obviously they're factoring in that this virus is going to spread 2.2% down to 0.8%. So Bank of America coming out with some really bearish calls here revising their forecasts. The S&P 500 as a result of Gorman's call, they believe that there's a 15% downside scenario here. Their signalling and the major strategist came out of Gorman saying that the bull market is indeed over. There is a year end target of 11% but they revise their median midterm forecast down to 24.50%. So that's 15% below where we are at the moment, probably 10% now as a result of yesterday's movements but we are seeing a rebound in S&P futures today up about 4%. But this just shows you how Gorman's accent and all the big banks are indicating that this bull market is over. I was listening to Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, a really good guy to listen to. He's the chief equity strategist who's definitely listened to him. He's actually been saying that his equity strategy has been very defensive for the last two years and he's been positioned more into those sectors like utilities for example and those defensive tech sectors that I talked about in the previous video but he's been positioning his strategy towards those for the last two years and obviously it seems to be the right call. But really we're seeing all sectors kind of sell off at the moment which is, I think this is a function definitely of the behavioural side of financial markets where everyone is just seeing the sensationalist stuff in the media and the BBC news for example. You can't turn on the news without seeing it and they are just panic selling at the moment so I think it is this move is hugely behavioural and this chart basically just indicates the probability of a recession within 12 months so these hopes of a V-shaped recovery have been dashed and this is actually as a result of previous viruses and the actual rebound, the V-shaped rebound as a result of those viruses and now it's looking more of a kind of U-shaped if you want to call it that a longer term I think by the summer we will be looking you know more favourable at this situation but for now I think in the near term it is going to get worse before it spreads into you know it spread obviously into Germany and Italy I think we are yet to see it really dominate headlines and stuff in the UK and US and I think there will be some more pain in the short term as of when we start to see those headlines but the probability of a recession within 12 months has jumped to 55% as a result of this virus exposing against the key point exposing previous weaknesses that we've already seen in corporations in the kind of markets but again P ratios are still above their historical averages which is you know hard to believe right even after the drop the valuation of US stocks remains above the historical average so you can see it's trading at a PE ratio of 16 after the peak of the obviously the dot-com bubble but PEs were you know we saw huge multiple expansion last year and I think obviously you know there's been severe compression as a result of the virus exposing these things but I think again from the previous video the real risk is if and I think it's inevitable now if these earnings so the denominator in this PE ratio start to be revised downwards then we're going to see some real carnage in markets this is a form of relative valuation so relative rather than an absolute valuation like a discounted cash flow but it's still above their 5 and 10 averages but obviously the risk is to the downside so for more multiple compression and the credit markets are flashing warning signals so this is a look at the CDX index so this is essentially an index of credit swap credit default swaps so this is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS essentially compensates the buyer in the event of a debt default or an adverse credit kind of event and this is you know investors use these for a multitude of purposes so for example speculation so if you if you see the obviously credit markets and corporations like I've been talking about as a result of this financial leverage you know if you see an opportunity in credit defaults or adverse credit events you know occurring then you're going to want to obviously speculate on this kind of CDX index but this is also used as a hedge for portfolios you know you can hedge the underlying bonds in your portfolio if you do see that obviously decline in bond price up in yields obviously due to this credit deterioration that I obviously will look at now and talked about in the previous video but the the reason people use these are they are standardized so they are exchange traded they're more liquid more transparent so you can see the CDS is CDS is normally trade over the counter so they normally have you know they're more specialized this is more standardized and you tend to see more liquidity in this market therefore tighter spreads and is obviously cheaper than buying the single CDS and then combining all these you know different compartments of the CDX to form this you know full index so this is a the credit markets are flashing warning signs so we saw the spread on US high grade CDS indexes so the CDX you know the surge the most since the layman crisis all the way up to 130 which obviously is definitely a warning sign and I think if you look at the credit markets they are flashing you know red and this is definitely a thing if you're an equity investor to be looking at and this is just really an emphasis of the era of cheap money and this is a long-term chart of US interest rates so you can see they were you know 6% before the crisis and obviously we saw global synchronized easing as a result of that financial crisis them stay on hold until pretty much 2016 and you just see the like magnitude of these little steps 25 basis points 25 basis points and they just completely unraveled all of this you know to and we are I think now heading to zero definitely like I talked about in the previous video heading to zero in US rates but you can see how long this has taken just little steps you know the market's been extremely sensitive to any tightening of financial conditions and now they'll look back I think 2018 Q4 2018 at the tightening of that you know that monetary policy as a huge mistake but financial markets really forced them into that state of you know if you tighten we're going to sell off and then obviously the when equity indices and financial conditions will organically tighten when when you see that kind of fear in the market of that selling so this is really just an era of this cheap money these low interest rates where corporations have just borrowed and borrowed and borrowed you know really with to feed buybacks and just to you know expand their businesses and lever up just really with kind of no you know no fear of actually ever you know not I don't want to say paying it back but without any with rates actually going up and you can see this in the debt to EBITDA ratios and it's the highest in 20 years so this is just the debt divided by the earnings for interest tax and depreciation and amortisation so this is the debt leverage so the higher the ratio the more levered companies are and the less likely they are be able to cover those interest payments and that debt with those earnings before interest tax and depreciation so really worrying metric to look at and this is obviously the scale of credit quality and credit rating so I actually used to work for S&P the world's largest credit rating so I'm actually going to be biased and look at the credit rating scale from S&P so you can see the highest credit quality here is the AAA obviously the lowest level of credit risks the more likely they are to pay back their debt so the safest investments if you want to want to call it that and as you go down to scale the credit risk of these companies starts to deteriorate so there's a higher probability of default so there's a higher credit risk less likely there will be that these corporations will actually repay their debt and obviously you do get a higher yield and this is why anything below BB- is called speculative grade high yield junk so you do get that higher yield to compensate yourself or any investors for that added risk that you're taking on so this is the rating scale if you've never seen one before but what I want to emphasise is there's two trillion in BB- debt so this is the one level or the one notch if you want to call it that above junk so this is sitting here in the investment grade setting there's two trillion of this debt there's 600 billion in BB- energy debt so this is really what I want to stress to you is that corporations have levered up so much in this area of cheap money there's a real chance now of these credit ratings either dropping or being put on watch negative so royal Caribbean was one that S&P put on credit watch negative so this is the probability has increased of them being downgraded to a to a later notch and this is what we call a falling angel so this is a falling angel is one where a corporation falls from investment grade or down to high yield or junk so I think there's a real risk of that now and this energy debt has led to sell off obviously across high yield bonds the yield to energy has reached its highest level since early 2016 and 27 billion of US oil and gas bonds actually come due this year so as a result of this kind of adverse demand shocks and indeed supply shocks this is going to obviously adversely affect all these corporations their ability to repay their interest payments and their debt as a result of the temporary demand shocks impacting their profitability their revenues and 27 billion of this oil and gas actually comes due this year so what's going to happen with that right so I think there's a severe risk of these falling angels being so these investment grade companies sitting in this kind of pocket being downgraded and Moody's actually have come out saying that high yield defaults may rise to 9.7% so 10% during a worse case scenario and it's currently sitting at 3.6% so this is definitely something that I think you will see in the coming weeks or months of these kind of investment grade names sitting on this BBB minus notch falling down to this high yield and junk and obviously when this happens this is a really negative signal for equity investors and you'll see very adverse price movements in the share prices of these companies and you've seen some oil names already being put on credit watch negative or downgraded and this is from my LinkedIn post so this is my bearish view on financials so I got asked in the in the previous video in terms of the UK banks but I think my view is really the same and this was a LinkedIn post I did like I said oil experience a 30% drop down to 30 barrel 30 dollars a barrel on Monday and it's actually reported that Bank of America and some other US banks have been hit hard and this is coming from data coming from the KBW so this is data that covers kind of banks and they have significant exposure to the energy sector so think of banks obviously you you obviously hear about them being investment banks they're also obviously lending facilities right so if you lend and you know a huge amount of them have to these energy names that going back to my previous slide if they're going to be downgraded to credit watch negative or downgraded in terms of into high yield this is going to put the banks at huge risk right they've got huge exposure over 10% to the energy sector so Deutsche Bank and Bank of America obviously was hit quite hard in some of the mid-sized US banks as well Deutsche Bank is down 50% in the last month 30% in the last five days so Euro stocks banks index is trading at all time lows rates are heading down there's going to be suppressed capital markets activity and what I mean by that is the equity capital markets the debt capital markets of these investment banks the M&A activity you know no one's going to want to deal in this environment you're not going to want to see you're not going to want to IPO into this type of environment and this is something that I actually train on equity capital markets so the kind of the behavioural instinct of IPOing into this type of environment is going to be something that corporations aren't going to want to do and I think I saw Airbnb this was meant to be the big IPO this year their bookings of severely you know gone down as a result of the kind of travel restrictions that you know no one's travelling no one's going to all these you know different locations worldwide and now their IPO is at severe risk so all these banks are going to be impacted by this suppressed capital markets activity this reported energy exposure again and this is kind of another call from Goldman Sachs saying that they face 34 billion a risk or a European bank faces a risk of that hit so my actual title of this piece was you know when things move quickly they bend and then they eventually break so what's going to break and I think we're seeing some cracks appear now and I want to kind of on the flip side of this this is not like the financial crisis you know this is not that bad yet but definitely something to be looking at and I know I'm listening to you know some of the older guys I don't want to call them older guys but the more experienced guys that have seen the financial crisis and they're saying it doesn't feel like that but I think if we do see more downside I think it could you know could definitely spell trouble and this is just following on the flow of the probability of default this is a metric you would look at in credit analytics or credit analysis so Deutsche Bank's share price obviously like we just talked about you know down to four dollars and their five-year default probability is spiked as a result so this really is a really nice graphic following on from the previous points that I've mentioned the one positive for banks so refinancing so this is to do with mortgages for example so Refi activity was up 480% year on year so this is coming from the United States so US mortgage refinancing has surged to the most since 2008 and this is as a result of this easing from monetary policy from the banks where they've lowered interest rates this obviously makes mortgages cheaper but only if you're on a floating rate mortgage right if you're on a fixed rate mortgage this is no good news for you unfortunately and there was a start that 75% of mortgages I think in the United States are on a fixed term mortgage but I just want to show you the kind of the impact of this if you do refinances that you could save about 275 dollars per month on a 30 year loan and this implies a saving of 3.5 billion a month in payments or 42 billion a year for the US economy right so that comes out to 0.2% of US GDP so I think this is the the one kind of ball case for the banks is this refining activity will be up so 480% year on year which is quite a considerable number and there will be buying opportunities so this is just an insight into some of the levels I'm looking at for JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley I think for a long term hold you know I don't want to say that they're going to be around god I think people got hit very hard when they said that laymans you know is not going to default is not going to not ever be there but JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley would be my you know big bets I think from the banking sector Bank of America as well and I think $60 and $24 for those shares look attractive levels for me for a long term hold and actually wrote this this slide when I was doing this deck on Thursday or Wednesday and the ECB joins the virus fight so they've obviously Christine Lagarde had a you know her press conference yesterday and she actually had a really bad day at the office from from the markets perspective she said we're not here to close spreads and then you saw BTPs sell off you know dramatically which was I think a mistake from her she did look a little bit out of her depth but she has so they didn't cut the deposit rate down to 50 negative 50 basis points in the ECB but they did provide additional long-term financing and loans for Bank to provide this immediate liquidity and this is something I've been talking about the key is the availability of credit and financing for these small to medium size enterprises and I think this was definitely the right reaction or this is definitely the right route to go cutting interest rates you know I don't think anyone's going to care about a 10 basis points cut in the in the ECB interest rate right same with the Federal Reserve the coronavirus just because you make money cheaper isn't going to make people travel you know isn't going to provide liquidity to the financial markets or to small to medium size enterprises to withstand these temporary demand shocks they've obviously outlined their more favourable terms for the targeted loan programme and an additional 120 billion euros of asset purchase focused on the private sector and I actually let when I wrote this deck Fed to join I had a laugh of will that you know we saw a big rebound in equity industry futures why because the the Fed have actually announced 1.5 trillion in repo so easing so this is QE now I also did basically a post months ago that asset you know the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has been increasing quite dramatically and they're calling it not QE you know this is definitely QE so what they've done is essentially provided liquidity to the market and they've basically allowed for 1.5 trillion in the repo market three month repo market so this is going to ease liquidity conditions and financial conditions and I saw a lot of graphics saying that you know there was severe stress in the Treasury market this is the US Treasury market and I think that's exactly why the Federal Reserve have stepped in as a result of that because this is the US Government right you know they have the lowest probability of default out of anyone so if there is stressing the the biggest you know most liquid market the Treasury market then the Fed obviously had to step in and provide that liquidity but they've got a real problems now and long-term inflation expectations so this is the market derived inflation expectations and this is by five-year five-year swaps so what's the five-year what's the five-year inflation outlook in five years time and they've both hit record lows so I think there is that threat and this is a cool I've been having for a while this threat of Japanification the negative interest rates in the US the interest rate differentials across the world I think this one was inevitable and I think they've had a real battle with stimulating inflation and now they've got a real risk of disinflation so slowing inflation and deflation as a result of this action so the five-year five-year swaps both USD and Europe have hit record lows and this is the Fed pricing for Fed rates and I think it's just unbelievable when you look at this chart and how it's progressed and obviously I look at this quite a lot but this is the target rate probabilities for the 29th of April so they've got a the Federal Reserve have a meeting in March and this is the probability for April you know zero percent rates are 50 percent priced in now for April from 75 basis points and we hit a high of 225 basis points it's just unbelievable to see that zero on the chart I mean I spoke with Anthony about this it's just crazy to see but now the markets are now putting them in this kind of situation where they're going to need to do this because if the market's priced you know more loosely than the federal funds rate is then that's going to be an artificial tightening of financial condition so this is the same scenario they were in as a result of the previous emergency cut I wrote that that post saying that they have to cut now and cut hard and I think this was the markets putting their you know their hand behind their back and forcing them into this and this is exactly you know exactly the same so I'm sure there is some pain in markets but I think from a portfolio management perspective I need to go through a few things of what to do now and I think the key is don't panic the mood music is blue right now and you know is an extremely stressful time if you're an investor or even if you're just a normal individual but focus on the long term but this is obviously dependent on your time horizon right so this is some portfolio management kind of things that I want you to look at and I'm not your financial advisor you should definitely consult them obviously for your own individual condition but this is some important factors to consider so you need to assess your time horizon right are you a long-term investor you know what age are you what are you investing for you know if you are at the end of your retirement that's going to be you know or the your working life for retirement that's going to be put you in a you know a less favorable position for risk assets right because you're going to need that you know those funds later you know very soon whereas a long-term investor from the age range of let's say 25 to 30 for example you know you're not going to need that those funds for for 40 50 years um so definitely take a look at your time horizon what are your liquidity needs you know what do you need these funds for what are you investing for is it for your kids to go to school is it for you know almost speculative money just to earn a bit of side income you need to look at your liquidity needs what draw downs are you going to need for the for the near term for the longer term what's your financial situation um so a lot of times it's not your willingness to invest or for risk it's your ability so you need to look at your financial situation your salary your other assets that you have you know is it um is this risk that you should be taking uh or are you you know are you looking at your portfolio your positions every minute uh and chances are if you're doing that then you're you've got too much risk on the table um so you definitely look at your financial situation your psychology and I think um I think it's coming from financial media commentators they're saying don't panic don't sell um but really I know a lot of people have experienced draw downs in their portfolio um as all assets have been selling off um and if you are getting to the point where you know you just want out you know it's too much to handle this kind of negative connotation this psychology of this kind of dark cloud can loom over you over you when you look at your portfolio every day and it's you know there's more and more drowned you know draw downs and you're just seeing it fall and fall and fall um it can be tough to take um psychologically um you need to assess your investment goals like I talked about your risk tolerance uh and what assets do you buy next I mean uh I'd say definitely a defensive portfolio is sensible for the the short term but like we saw I think gold foul and what we're seeing is gold take these whip uh you know wicked moves downwards and this is as a result of it being a safe haven status and it's done very well over you know the last 18 months or so but people are now experiencing margin calls um from their equity positions so they're now selling these gold positions and this is why you're seeing negative ticks in the in the gold price um where people are covering their margin calls with these winning positions um so definitely review your asset allocation uh both strategic uh and tactical tactical being near term uh so how you tactically positioning your portfolio and then more strategically for the 20 year 30 years but if you just want to think back um to that dow char I showed you there's been a huge amount of wealth creation uh you know over the last 100 years so in the long term some of the names for example like JP Morgan Morgan Stanley you you would expect you know to rebound and once this virus does pass and it will pass uh fingers cross in you know sooner rather than later we will see a rebound um so if you've got the stomach you know to put some cash to work now then for the long term and this is not a short term play um then definitely that would be a sensible thing to do um but I just want to talk about also the coronavirus and its impact um obviously amplified do offer remote training um both for students if you're a student watching this welcome um if you're a trader as well we obviously do offer online programs um so we are moving our summer internship dates uh online as well so we're giving you the option of remote training uh and what this summer internship training does is essentially rotate you through all the different roles of finance so obviously we're talking about global markets now in trading um but we also cover things like equity research universal banking so you're looking at credit mna equity capital market through our IPO simulation and indeed sales and trading so if you're looking um to get experience and let's say your spring week has been cancelled like i've seen a few have or you're not you haven't got any plans for summer come and join us either in house and we do expect the virus to be uh you know the situation to be a lot more favourable then and we've definitely kept that view um but we have also now made the option for you to access it remotely and we are fully equipped uh to deal with that remote training so i remember last friday um Will our managing director ran a session for credit swiss and bachoni purely online so if you're interested in getting that experience definitely definitely uh inquire now on the website i'll leave my email address down in the comment section below feel free to contact me regarding any of this um if you are a more experienced professional we do have online options and this is different to the student side so if you're a student definitely definitely uh go for the summer internship training programme if you're a if you're a trader a seasoned professional uh so let's say you've worked in law oil and gas or you want to trade your own funds professionally um and for you know for a living we have incredible contact content delivered by our directors uh expertise and indicators for example like i've been through uh in this session our directors have a combined financial market experience uh of analysis and trading of a combined 50 years so this content is incredible it's a rolling subscription of 200 pounds a month so definitely take that out and i'll put the link to the trader side um down there but again if you're a student this is more suitable for you we do cover global markets asset management portfolio management equity capital markets debt capital markets mna private equity real estate uh technology and finance when introduction to algorithmic coding coding all the skills necessary for you to land the top rolling finance um so definitely check that out and that is amplified trading dot com forward slash students i'll leave a link in the comments section uh and for the traders amplified trading dot com forward slash traders so like comment subscribe definitely if you enjoyed this video it's been a pleasure to to speak to you today turn on your post notifications subscribe let me know what you want to see again like i said i did action the 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