 OK. Yn y troedau, mae'n 2 p.m. y UK time. Welcom to another live trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen, if you type a Y in the chat box, just so I know we're ready to get going. Testing audio, if you can hear me and see the welcome screen, if you type a Y in the chat box, great stuff. Thanks. OK, just before we get going and before we jump into today's content, if you do have any questions, if you could make a note of those and at the end of today's session, I'll open up a quick Q&A if there are any questions you have with respect to charts that I haven't covered or looked at, that would be great. So before we jump into it, as always, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. The most important aspect of that for today's purposes is that the views expressed by me are solely mine and they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. For those that are here for the first time, my name is Patrick Munley. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, having a front row seat in the dot com bubble, witnessing people making lose a fortune in the markets quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginner's luck, I racked up some solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit. Say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really have to stand back and figure out if it's going to be feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, a period during which I was not just my technical game in terms of developing a strategy that suited my personality, researching and develop an extensively back and forward testing strategies, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly, I made the more shed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset, you understand the true nature of training being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investment, that hellish emotional roller coaster of living dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of an individual trade or a string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. A multi strategy approach has delivered annual positive returns since 2008. From 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm kind of responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentioned hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also the resident market experts exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tick Mill. My other passion project is leading trader education for a primary trader education brand called fxcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talents at fxcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structure programme that culminates in managing the firms capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. So that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. And if you are interested in learning more about fxcareerswap, there's a number here on the screen to call the trading desk in London where you can drop them an email and they will provide additional information with respect to what we do at fxcareerswap. So let's jump into the charts. I want to premise today's review of the charts with a couple of observations really with respect to the price action we're seeing at the moment. I've informed the traders who I work with, especially today, I noted that we have we've entered a period of extremely low volatility in terms of the forex markets. And as sure as as day follows night, sorry, as night follows day, low volatility begets high volatility. And I think or I sense we're heading into a phase here where in these first week to 10 days of June, I think we could see a significant uptick in terms of volatility, looking at the price patterns that we've got on the most of the charts at the moment. I think we are just on the cusp of maybe a little uptick here in volatility and hence an uptick in opportunity. So let's start with the global equity markets and see where they have their setup and so what we can see and what you'll see is a theme on a bunch of charts today is that we are forming these these wedges and we're getting into the business end of a bunch of these wedges. Now, a wedge can break either way. We can test it and it can break to the downside or we can break out to the upside more often than not the signal that we're going to break to the downside is that of divergence. And when I talk about divergence, I will use a proprietary indicator called a psych indicator, which is essentially just an enhanced RSI tool. Just gives better, better readings. And what we've got here, as you can see, as we're testing the S&P here, looking to test new highs, I'm looking for us to break to the upside into into the back end of this week now. 4300 level, we've got weekly range resistance 4270 monthly range resistance 4278. And then we've got this ascending trend line third test here. And that's accompanied by a significant amount of divergence now. So what I'm anticipating is that we head into next week. We've obviously got public holidays in the US and in the UK on Monday. So we could grind this out into the top side here. But I anticipate as we head into this early part of June that we should we will probably get a signal of a corrective phase to develop. And if this plays out, then I'll be looking for a test of the ascending trend line support back down to 1491 in terms of the S&P. Nasdaq Nasdaq's in a weaker position than the S&P at the moment. We haven't we're not really getting up to retest these highs. And so I sense that the Nasdaq may struggle at current levels or certainly into this resistance zone here. And so the type of thing I've been thinking about with the Nasdaq is we get in here and then we get an equal leg correction. So when I talk about equal legs, that's measuring versus this leg to the downside here. So if we if we do trade into this resistance zone, we get we get various reversal patterns. Then I've been looking for a test down into the 12700 level in terms of the Nasdaq. Dow Jones similar to the S&P. If we break to the top side, look for a test here of the ascending trend line resistance before getting that pullback move, certainly to test the ascending trend line support. So we'll be talking about move from up towards 35,600 back down into 33,840 as the initial downside target. And we could maybe see a little bit more. But what we want to do in terms of when we're setting our expectations for targets is just play it as a logical you know, if we test in the top side trend line resistance, the logical area where downside corrected move would potentially complete would be the ascending trend line support. Dax is squeezing higher here again in this wedge pattern. So I've been looking for the Dax to get up into the ascending trend line resistance zone here, 16,150. And then and then get a pullback, certainly a three wave move. Initially, we've got an internal trend line here that would see us back into 15,370, but we could then test a major of the primary trend line support back down to 14,700 would be the objective on the downside. Nikkei weakest of them all really has has not hasn't seen the recovery that we've seen in US markets. And so we're actually sitting at resistance here. This prior support potentially to act as resistance. And so if we start to roll over here, then we look for another leg to the downside to test this 26,970. Alternatively, we did this type of pattern, double correction into the top side of the channel before getting the next leg to the downside like so in terms of the Nikkei. The VIX, the volatility index is also setting up nicely here. We're we're coming into lows 17. So what ideally what we'd like to see here is as the as the equity markets break to new highs in terms of the S&P and the Dow, not so much than that stack, but what we'd love to see here in terms of another confirmation for this set up will be a test into this 14 area. I think that would set up a spike in terms of the VIX up into the 30 level trend line resistance. Note again with the VIX, we've got plenty of divergence developing. So if we can get this, this volatility crush into into the back end this week or Monday, and then I think we're set to see a volatility spike, and that spike is what will fire the correction in terms of in terms of equity indexes. And then that obviously feeds into the foreign exchange markets. We'll start with the dollar here. Dollar is testing trend line resistance. It looks like it's holding for now. If it holds, what I've anticipated is we break to new lows in terms of the dollar index, and then we'll see if we're going to see that spike in the VIX and the correction in terms of the equity markets, then that should set up a corrected phase in terms of the dollar index. And certainly we can think about retesting 91, 60 to 92 area initially as some resistance. And again, with the dollar index note, we've got bags of divergence developing. So any new lows here in terms of the dollar index would would likely see the psychic indicator roll down to test trend line support. And we use that as an additional confirmation looking for those bullish reversal patterns to play the dollar index from the long side. Treasury yields as well, just creeping up again here. And if we can take out this descending trend line resistance in a triangle pattern here, then we could see yield spike. And again, this is the story that we saw with that initial phase of dollar strength earlier in the year. So we look for a move through the resistance here and see yields trade up towards the 2% level, and that would give support to the dollar index and would like to weigh on equity markets in the short term. And obviously see that and support the VIX move higher. Gold looking for a pullback into support here for gold. We've been training a nice trend channel. And what I'm looking for is a pullback into support 1860 bullish reversal patterns. I think we can set up a move then to test 1960. And from there, maybe we see a bigger corrective pattern developer near term watching 1860 watch with bullish reversal patterns target 1960. Silver sitting on the trend line here trying to try to base to to make another test of that 30 level if we can get up into this area. And I think from there from that 30s, and I think once again, we would see a corrective move develop that correction could be could be this stage then or could set the stage for a break of the 30 level. So watching how we trade out the 30. If we get another pullback move here that finds support into, let's say, let's look at the tradesmen here. So yeah, something into that 38.2 percent retracement that could then set up the move to take out the 30 and build for another leg higher in terms of silver. Crude oil, still once we hold 67, there's still a chance that we trade the equality objective to 5629. Well, certainly down into the trend line support 5832. And again, you can see that if the that would feed into the idea that that we're going to see a bit of risk off tone in these markets. Obviously crude trades in tandem with risk assets. And so if we if we get if we hold the 6704 and get the pullback, then that would that would fit with that narrative. Alternatively, we could take out trend that we could take out these and put in a high into this area into the back into the back end of this week early next week and then get a more sustained pullback in terms of crude. Again, if those if the equity markets take out their highs, then that would fit with crude potentially making a new high here before getting a pullback. Again, note the divergence. This is this is what's key really to all of these charts at the moment is the significant divergence we're seeing. And what we obviously we're not going to trade divergence in and of itself, but we use the price action confirmations then to align with potential divergence, copper consolidating, nothing to do there really. Bitcoin interesting as well as we hold symmetry swing resistance when I talk about symmetry swing resistance measuring the last correction overlay against the current low. So whilst we trade below forty three thousand three hundred, those prior lows there, those prior breakout highs, then I think there's a chance that we test down into this 20,000 level, the yearly pivot, test it for above. And then from there, we've looked potential to put in a more meaningful base in terms of in terms of Bitcoin, the dollar yuan. This this one's under scrutiny at the moment. If we hold, if we can hold support here in the dollar yuan, and get some consolidation, obviously the PBOC have been on the wires, if we can get some consolidation, then there's a chance for the dollar yuan to break to the upside. And if that breaks the upside, that will take the dollar index with it. As this is this is kind of leading the price action at the moment. However, if we take out the trend line support here at the 636 level, then I think we're looking at 630 next. And that will suggest that we actually can see a new low in the dollar index. And then we'll see what sort of momentum divergence we get. As you can see here, it's building even in the dollar yuan. So familiar story. Dollar yen has held trend line resistance. And it looks like it's going to try and make a move to the topside now. So what we've been looking for here is an equality objective. So this is that swing and there. So that will put us back into a double top here, potentially in the dollar yen on 10 85 again. Watch then for this divergence to to weigh on the pair. So we see trying to break out here of its trend line resistance. If it can, then that we can expect at least a three wave corrected move to correct against this pattern, sorry, this leg to the downside. So the minimum what you'd anticipate would be something like this to play out into the 50 percent retracement. And then we'll see if sellers are going to step back in in terms of the swissie. Or we could potentially have a more significant inverse head and shoulder scenario on the cards and we could trade it higher. Dollar CAD. So this is this one doesn't have divergence. And so this is why when I look at this, I think even if we do get a break higher here, it's likely we need to make another low to set to get it to get some decent divergence. Because whilst we on this on this swing to the downside, we haven't got any divergence and so I'm less constructive on the dollar CAD as opposed to some of the other dollar dollar crosses. So need to see a correction to the upside and another new low to get some momentum divergence before we can get more constructive in terms of bigger corrective phase. Euro sitting in the wedge here and looking either to two scenarios. If the dollar is going to make a new low, we look for a test up into the prior highs before setting up a corrective move in terms of the in terms of the euro or alternatively if the dollar holds and it's going to break its trend line, then we anticipate that euro will break its trend line support at the top of that. So what we've been looking for there with the euro to break its trend line support and then put in a corrected move before the next leg to the upside. So we're either going to see a potential double top here with a bunch of divergence or we're going to break down and play for a three wave corrected move, certainly can think about 1950s target on the downside. Then we've got the euro yen trading right into the again looking at the wedge scenario here. Plenty of divergence. So just watching and waiting for a reversal pattern. We've got monthly range resistance 133.75 weekly range resistance 133.19. And we've got this ascending trend line. So any reversal patterns that develop here are going to pay attention to. And I've been looking for a test of trend line support down to 130.50 as the corrective target euro Swiss. Seeing if we can get a test of the equal legs objective here in a double correction, thirty eight point two percent of tracing. This would be the ideals area to see a reversal this one over nine five. And then we can think about a retest. Well, certainly a retest of trend line resistance and a breakthrough there would suggest that we've got a way for low in place and we should take out that one 1150 to the upside. Euro CAD, nothing to do in that one at the moment. Euro Kiwi, this is in this one's interesting, sitting right at trend line support here. So I'll be paying attention if we can get some reversal patterns here in terms of the Euro Kiwi, then I'll be looking at long positions because we have a an equality objective at 172.67. So paying close attention to the next to today's closed, tomorrow's closed, maybe even Mondays might consolidate in and around the trend line support here before getting a signal to go long for 172.67. Sterling sitting at what could potentially be a major double top here. I've got an order in place to sell slowly just below today's lows. Doesn't look like we're going to get filled here at the moment. So what certainly might be setting up for is just putting in one more high here. So weekly range resistance, taking out the stops above this prior high. But what have we got on the chart down here? Bags of momentum divergence, and this is likely to be addressed. And so we could see this type of scenario. Certainly thinking about the sending trend line support initially 139.90 and then swing to 139 would be easily feasible. So watching if we take out the highs and get a reversal just through these prior highs with all this momentum divergence, then I'd be looking at on the shore side in terms of sterling or we break today's lows and that would be that would be sufficient for me to to get in on the shore side in terms of sterling sterling yen, much like Euro yen sitting looking for this trend line resistance here. So we're getting the spike now. So if we can get a move up into 155.70, I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns. And again, we've got plenty of divergence here with the psychic indicator. So watch those bearish reversal patterns short. Certainly a three way of corrective move would be feasible down into the 151 area as a reasonable downside objective. And that's just looking at the last swing that we had to the downside and using that as a reasonable downside target if we get the set up here. Swithia, sorry, Stoning Swiss. This one could give a long signal actually here and what we'll be looking for tonight on the close if we can at all. So certainly we could think about a target up to 128.77, which would be the equal legs objective. And on the basis that we've got this move here. So if we think about the earlier wave structure of this being a potential fourth wave low versus this one, two, three, four, then we can think about a fifth wave objective certainly up into the 132.95 area. So very interesting where we get a close here on the Stoning Swiss. It's psych is gone bullish, bullish on the five period VWAP. And so this this could give a signal tonight. Pay close attention to that one. Stoning Kiwi looking for test of the trendline support. Haven't quite got that yet, but again, you can see this one breaking higher then and we could be thinking in terms of equality objectives back up into this resistance 202.26. Could certainly be on the cards there. Not keen about taking it here. I really want to see it test the trendline and get that better risk reward. Ozzie. Ozzie's sitting in an inflection point here. If we if we lose this this support zone here at the 77 level, I think we can very quickly trade down to 75.36. We could even go lower than that. Let's see an equality objective. Have us down at 74.19, these prior highs. So that would be if we get a couple of closes through this trendline, I think we can start to see that melt to the downside in terms of the Aussie. So pay close attention to that. Sykes rolling over here going negative. There is a man of week of 10 days ago, there were some big downside options protection taken out in terms of the Aussie. And so it wouldn't surprise me to see it start to break lower here. Ozzie yen. Looking for a test. It's a 70 wedge top here will be 86.79. Again, if equity markets make new highs and drag the Aussie in with them. And then maybe we see that roll over. Ozzie Swiss. I like this one on the long side as well. If we get a close through 69.70s, and I think we can see the 71.43 get tested. We've held the 38.2 percent retracement of this leg to the upside and symmetry swing versus this corrective leg overlayed against the high and we're holding and we've held monthly range support. So keeping an eye on the close tonight. The Aussie Swiss could be another one sterling Swiss. Obviously they've just talked about as well. The Aussie cad has potential. Ideally what I'd like to see here with this Aussie cad is that we take, we make a move to test the yearly pivot from above. We've got 38.2 percent retracement of the advance off the off the March lows last year. We've got an equality objective and we've got monthly and weekly range support. I'd be paying very close attention to this 92.60. And certainly we can think about 96.80 as an upside objective if this trade sets up. So keeping a close eye on this this confidence over there. Kiwi. Seen a spike through the trend line resistance. If we get a close back through it to the downside today, we can think about that as a false break to the upside and we're sitting on then a potential fourth test of this trend line and third tests are great. But by the time we tested the fourth time, more often than not, we'll see that break. So if that broke and the Aussie broke to the downside and we start to see risk mark risk assets roll over 68 will be the area. These prior highs to the downside. So paying close attention to the to the Kiwi here. We did see a slightly hawkish read from the RBNZ, but we're not not seeing this thing take off like one will expect if the market really bought into that story. And we could actually be sitting here at a head and shoulders type top. So paying close attention to the Kiwi. Kiwi yen looking for it to test the target zone here into the 80 level and again with it with risk assets and risk markets poise, we could see rejection from here and then we could be looking for a test of 78 to the downside Kiwi Swiss. I was looking for this to hold the trend line resistance. We'll see if it does or if it doesn't. But if it does hold, then I think we get a move down to 64.06 for the Kiwi Swiss. Kiwi CAD isn't I was looking for it to test the trend, the trend line resistance here doesn't even look like we're going to do that at this point. But if we do get a test here, watch for various reversal patterns, I think we could see a leg to the downside. Swiss yen looking for the 22.06 monthly and weekly range resistance 2053, alternatively look for a breakthrough, the weekly pivot 121. I think this one along with a bunch of these ends is set for for a corrective phase to develop. So I'm just watching for the price action and again, plenty of divergence. So not not confirming these new new highs has been well supported. And hence vulnerable to a correction. Cadian looking for a break into a new high here. And again, we've got plenty of divergence to look at. So any new high here where we don't take out this prior high in terms of the momentum study leaves us vulnerable to a corrective phase. So those those are the charts I'm watching at the moment. And so like I say, watching really closely now over this next seven to 10 days to see if these patterns play out. And we we address this significant momentum divergence that we're seeing across a number of asset markets and certainly watching the equity markets as a lead, watched VIX and the dollar index. So, yeah, see some interesting opportunities in the week ahead. Are there any questions? Equally, if you don't have a question, typing an N in the chat box is useful so that I know we're we're all on the same page. OK, good stuff. Well, if there aren't any questions, I'll wrap this one up here and we will reconvene at the same time next week. And I have a question in a second about you. Can we take another look at Swissy? Yeah, sure. So yeah, I'm looking if we can break out here, if we can break this trend line on a closing basis, then I'd be looking at a three wave corrective move in terms of the Swissy. And we could be we could be potentially looking at an inverse head and shoulder scenario here as well. I'll just draw that in for you. So I mean, it could be a more meaningful in place. I doubt. I would say this juncture, I'd be initially just looking for a three wave pullback into the 92 area. If we take out the trend line, then again, I could see us. If we think about where the dollar index is, where the euro is, where these risk markets are, then it would be reasonable to expect at least a three way correction to the 50 percent replacement. And then from there, we'll see whether or not sellers are going to step back in. That's a cable. Cable, I'm looking at the potential for a significant double top here. Albert, just watching. We've got a lot of divergence here and that should be addressed before we before we move higher again. I think there is potential to go higher. But, you know, anything into this 44 area, third test and the same trend line in what could be a pretty significant wedge, or we hold a double top on a closing basis. And that momentum divergence gets addressed. Euroyen. So the Euroyen, I'm looking for a test here of the 1.3370 to 1.3390 area. And I'm watching again. The reason why I'm watching is we've got a lot of momentum divergence. So bearish reversal patterns. I think set up a test of the ascending trend line support at 1.3040, Albert. Any other questions? OK, if there are any questions, I'll wrap this one up here. And that was helpful and I'll catch you all at the same time next week. Thanks very much, everyone.