 I'm Maria Mamolo, so now today we change a little bit the chair of the sessions in order at least to make a little bit, giving a change always makes things a little bit more dynamic. It's a great pleasure to introduce Dr. Sergei Sherbov. He is working in Vienna at the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, and he will introduce us, so he's a demographer. His topic, more recent research topic is on population aging, and he will introduce us with a new perspective on population aging, and at this point I give you the floor to present this interesting topic. What I kindly ask you is to be sharp with the time slot, because I think this is important than to trigger more discussion between us. Thank you. Thank you, Maria, for introduction. Well, thank you very much, Matteo, thank you, Maria, for inviting me to express some of the ideas that we had. Well, actually I became demographer probably about 30 years ago, 35 years ago, initially I was in space programs, aviation and space programs, but many demographers came from different sciences, like Nicolle came from nuclear physics, so. Okay, so today I talk about aging, a new look on aging. So the work is basically based on what we did together with my colleague, Warren Sanderson, from Stony Brook University, for the last 15 years at the World Population Program at that time, it was called like that, the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. So my talk will be basically like introduction to the book that Harvard University Press published very recently, it was just a couple years ago, and it was called that my lectures is exactly, has the same name, Perspective Longevity, a new vision of population aging, that what we basically were working with Warren Sanderson for the last, for the past 15 years. So I will first talk about, I will first talk about some definitions of aging, because I guess that many people sitting here are not much aware of demographic definitions. Then I will talk about some new ways to measure aging, give some introduction to so-called characteristic approach, and give some examples and how the world, how aging in this world looks very different if we introduce, from my point of view, much more realistic definition of who is old. So it is on purpose, I put here 2017 UN World Population Prospects, it's just the major message that according to the data from World Population Prospects 2017 revision, the number of older persons, and it explicitly shown here, those age 60 or over, that's in 2017, United Nations defined old people, 60 plus, and then of course they're saying it's triple the number of old people, double and whatever. Now before we start talking about aging just few headlines, like newspapers, journals, very prominent journals like Economist, they all write about the same, the global aging poses significant threat to global prosperity, aging population poses global challenges, and so on. So before we talk about aging, let's look at the definitions of aging. So general definition, population aging is a process by which older individuals become a proportionate larger share of the total population, it's very general, or aging is a summary term of shifts in age structure towards older age groups. How do we measure population? The aging of population is often measured by increases in the percentage of elderly people of retirement ages, that's one of the definitions from Encyclopedia of Population. The median age, the age at which exactly half population is below this age, half above is another very popular measure of aging, and they are saying the population aging occurs when the median age of the country or region rises. Now of course old age dependence ratio is also very popular measure of aging where we look at the ratio of population at retirement ages compared to the population at working ages. That was probably the most popular measure, and that's what for example economists would always use. But who is old? That's a key issue. So how do we measure the proportion of older people? We have first to define who is old, and the United Nations until very recently defined people age 60, but even if it's 65, we still have this boundary kept constant, so it would be 60 or 65. Now this is a small question to people sitting here. Definition of who is old, age 65 is generally set as a threshold of old age since it is at this period of life that the rates of sickness and deaths begin to show a marked increase over those of the early years. When do you think this definition was made? Any ideas? 1916 by American sociologist Isaac Rubinov. So more than 100 years passed and we still consider people old at age 65. Sometimes we even consider them old at age 60. And this is one of my favorite tables. It's the record of oldest male Summitor of Everest. You see, the youngest was, the oldest was 39 years old, well, from Nepal in 1953. Today, I mean, it's 2018, it's 80-year-old Japanese guy. And he, as far as I remember, was planning to do it again at age of 85. Of course, equipment is different, but people are also very different. So it's not that only equipment. Okay, now let's look at some traditional measure of aging before we move to defining some new measures. So I use some UN data, basically, in terms of forecasts, more or less for our terms, doesn't really matter. For our purpose, it doesn't matter which population revision would take. Now median age, of course, in all regions, rising. That's clear from 1960 to 2000, from 1960, 50 even, 2060, 2050, it just rises everywhere, or even Africa here is coming up. Proportion of age 65 is rising. So it's all following, you know, these alarming statements. Everything is, you know, we see that, for example, if we take Europe from 10% in less than 10% in 1960, up to 30% in 2050, and this is just Europe as a whole, if you take individual country it will be even much stronger. And all the age dependency ratio, it's triples, even sometimes five times higher. Now let's talk about new measures of aging. So first let's look at age itself and at prospective median age. So the literature of population aging is exploding, but the notion of age is still the same. Who is old? It's still the same. It doesn't change. So the concept used to analyze aging have remained static for the last, I don't know, 100 years probably, since Bellot introduced all the age dependence ratio in something like 1911, something like that. Now this is to illustrate this concept. Suppose a man living in Western Europe is going to celebrate his 60th birthday. Is he old? Now I guess we have a mixed group of people, some would say, oh no, no, he's not old at all. He's very old. But I think in general, today, it's probably, the person is probably not considered at all because 93% of men would survive until this age, at least in countries with high life expectancy. However, about 150 years ago, only 25% of men would survive until this age and probably at that time someone at age 60 was really considered to be pretty old. Now why is the person who is considered middle age today was considered probably a pretty old, you know, 150 years ago? Because traditional age measures only how many years we live since we are born. And it backward-looking measure. So all people, you know, having the same age, they live the same number of years. And this measure is not complete because it ignores changes in life expectancy. That's why young and old notions where we have to take into account life expectancy. So in two papers, one published in Nature, another in Science with Warren Sanders, with my colleague, we basically introduced measures of age, first of all, we call it prospective age. Prospective age is a forward-looking measure. And in a minute it will be clear what it means. So basically decisions that people make today, they're very much dependent upon how many years people expect still to live. Like probably 100, 150 years ago it would be very uncommon that someone buys a house at age 70. But today it happens a lot. Hundred years ago it would be very unlikely that someone goes to university at age of 55. I knew lots of, I was teaching for many years in the Netherlands, in Groningen, and we had many students above age 50. So people know their future, know how many years they will be still around and they make decisions accordingly. So many, many aspects of our life, economic, social, they depend upon our general knowledge how long we're going still to stay on this planet. So basically prospective age, as we introduced this measure, prospective age measures how old people are not only from the date of their birth, but taking into account basically adjusting this age with lengthening life expectancies. For example, coming back to our example, so using the concept of prospective age you may say that someone who is 60 years old today can be compared to someone who was 43 years in 1850. And vice versa, someone who was 60 years old in 150 years ago probably could be compared roughly to someone who is 74 years today and in a minute it will be all clear how this calculated. Basically we recognize people of having two different ages. One age is chronological age and all people, all groups of people who have the same chronological age they leave the same number of years. Now in contrast we have prospective age and it's concerned with the future and everyone with the same prospective age has about the same remaining years of life. So prospective age requires a year of reference which is called standard year. And for example all people who have a prospective age 40 have the same remaining life expectancy as a 40 year old person in a standard year. This is slightly like inflation in economics. And after we introduce this measure of prospective age there was sort of explosion of papers and also we called it as inflation of age. But inflation of age is probably a good thing because we use in economics we use price indexes you know to adjust for inflation and we measure for example prices in standard dollars of 1960. Similarly we do here we measure age but in for example standard years again in 1960 but instead of price indexes we use life tables to do this in demography. So this is an example which will clarify just especially for Italian data. So suppose this what do we have on this slide? We have prospective age 40 standard period 1950. So what do we have here? 1950 females at age 40 had remaining life expectancy 35.3 years. Men at age 40 had remaining life expectancy 33.7. So in all those periods for example in 2019 women at age 51.3 had exactly same remaining life expectancy the same was men at age 50. So all those people have the same prospective age as we select as a standard 1950. That is the basic. So if it's clear we can move further. Now that's how this ages look like. Now what we have here? I selected as a reference year 1940 sorry 2019 I didn't touch 2000 because 2000 you see here it just it's COVID so it's slightly changed the things but then at least prospects United Nations forecasts and most of the cases they basically ignore the small change in life expectancy. So let's look at this trajectory 40. So in Italy females in 2019 at age 40 had particular life expectancy. It's not important what was this life expectancy. At age 40 now at those ages the longest curve they had exactly same remaining life expectancy. So in 1960 women at age 30 had exactly same life expectancy as women in 2019 at age 40. So this is basically scientific justification that 40 is a new 30 and you would see it all same food for men even sometimes stronger and see this. Basically for most of the ages well of course when we move sort of higher it's slightly different but still we have 60 is a new 50 70 is yeah basically new 60. So which means people are different and the same you have for men that was United Kingdom also very very similar. This is Japan. Japan even stronger. You see you have here in age 40 in 2019 it is like 25 in 1960. So 40 is a new 25 yes. Thank you. Have you analyzed the any qualitative indicator so we can't say that 40 is the new 30 unless we look at the health at that age because the fact that they are living longer may just be because when they get chronic diseases they are living a low quality of life for longer rather than seeing the onset of illness later and I think it's important to understand that we're good at keeping people alive longer now. That doesn't necessarily mean the quality of life is demonstrably different. And so thinking about what your grandmother was like at age 40 versus your mother at age 40 are there health wise indicators at those equivalent ages. Yes this is this important question but this is this is this is the topic of the whole presentation. Yes I will mention about that and this book that I referred to the beginning it has two I think three chapters devoted to that and in simple response is that people are healthier and you can see for example for men if you look man they're just they're healthy life expectancy goes basically in parallel with their with their life expectancy overall. If you take female that's also a topic of special papers because subjective health of women usually is lower subjective but what is subjective health. We had this 2008 crisis financial crisis and then suddenly everyone share share show that everyone had bad worse health because it's subjective. Many things are so that's but that's a very separate topic. If you look at some objective measures of health basically people are healthy. Okay so the same you have the same for the United States for France basically this is general picture. And also now now let's look at aging if we introduce this concept of prospective age. So basically we standardize age with increase in life expectancy so that's what I put here so using the concept of prospective median age we may come to the different conclusion about the whole history of aging look here here we have traditional median age. What is it here we have here Switzerland you know from 1876 so of course median age comes up on average now but if we standardize it with increase of life expectancy basically we select a standard year I think here I selected 1980 that's why they were over crossed in this year now let's look this is a history of prospective median age. Populations are becoming younger once we take into account increase in life expectancy populations are becoming younger and of course they cross over here at the year of standard. Of course this curve important is to see the dynamics not the level because the level would depend which standard you are we select the same as with standard dollar if we select 1960 it will be one level if we select 2010 it will be different level so the same story here but important is the dynamics so population is becoming younger now England Wales very similar story so for the last 150 years population now is younger than it was 150 years ago if you take into account increases in life expectancy. So these are for some countries for some selected countries again like Italy of course you have here some jumps that was Hispanic flu this is a wartime but the trend is that population somewhere at the end of well before 19 was younger than it is was older than it is now the same here Sweden you have similar to Austria for Russia it's very different because life expectancy was decreasing in Russia for the last 40 years it's only slightly increased recently now projections so that's how you end okay that's life expectancy okay here is median age this is traditional media age median age for all regions of the world and this is median age prospective median age if you take into account that life expectancy is increasing so basically not much aging is observed in the next 100 years and that's for for some countries for India whatever for India I think China but I will have more pictures on that now we had we used 2017 probabilistic projections and I show you that probably together with with people from UN we on this picture you have probabilistic median age traditional probabilistic median age so what is probabilistic which means that the chance is 90 90% median age in 2000 2100 will stay in this area okay now this is prospective median age of course it is much smaller it comes down but the probability range prediction range is about the same but much lower level I think the same we have for the for Germany so median age is stabilizing somewhere by the end of the century because the structure becomes almost stable and prospective median age comes down now this here we talked about median age analog of median age prospective median age now let's talk about second measures that we discussed with you that's proportion of all three people or an old age dependency ratio now what we have on this picture here we have proportion of people above age 65 for OECD countries you know from the beginning of last century it is increasing definitely now this is just simple averaging now how life expectancy was growing at age 65 that's life expectancy at age 65 it was also growing for all those countries you know from 19 up to almost now okay I think it's something like 2010 but it doesn't matter now this is average so it was growing now let's see somewhere in the end in the middle of 70s last century 1970 1975 life expectancy at age 65 both genders combined was about 15 years now let's assume that like in the 70s someone with remaining life expectancy 15 years is old okay now let's see what would be the age that would correspond to life expectancy 15 years and less that's OECD countries so you see definitely it's around 65 in the 70s but it's coming up and today I think it will be something like 75 close so this is combined averaged you see it's already in the 2000s it's already 70 age when remaining life expectancy is 15 years and less so let's assume that someone is old as I mentioned already when on average life expectancy is below age 15 let's call this age old age threshold now how would proportion of old look like with this new definition of older people so this is proportion of people with remaining life expectancy 15 years and less and it's average no aging for the last 100 years no aging once we consider dynamic old age threshold there is no aging and this is very strange at least to my point if you and that's why we started all this work when we compare people of age 65 over of age 60 hundred years ago and hundred years ahead it's these are completely different people their health different their mental capabilities are different everything is different physically they're different as I showed you at the beginning this example of every summit of so people are very very different and we still consider them comparing someone was 100 years ago with 100 years ahead just assuming that people are the same now let's look at projections with this new definition of age so we look at we say PC people age not at age 65 but when they have remaining life expectancy 15 years or less dynamic old age threshold now this is traditional 65 plus of course it's strong aging this is when we have proportion of people above all the expression which is remaining life expectancy it's very very different picture see for some countries it's we become younger people become younger but it's very very different picture now this is all the independence ratio basically the same you see triples six times higher and these are combined Europe or Africa if you take for example Italy next picture I think I will have Italy and this is prospective old age measures which take into account increase in life expectancy a dynamic old age threshold it's completely different picture and this is just a few European countries look here Italy it starts with 0.4 0.2 in 60 where is Italy this one even less and it would be just in in 2050 something like 0.8 of poor for 10 people working eight people in in retirement ages if you consider them traditionally 65 retired person and it's completely different picture we take into account that people are not old age 65 they're older much later which we have to take into account life expectancy that people live longer okay that's another another example that we did some time ago actually I think even with Maria that was when we made this European projections European demographic data data sheets so this is a picture this old age dependency traditional age dependency in 2013 and we see that the blue color show low level so low level is in the Eastern Europe and high level is in the Western Europe of traditional age dependency this is when we take into account life expectancy it's completely different picture it's reverse picture now people from countries from Eastern Europe they are becoming immediately old because life expectancy is much shorter okay this just I just did some using not to level just some old age threshold for Italian regions and you see this is for females the highest old age threshold is Trento above age 75 so women should be considered middle age problem till age 76 and men balsana is something like 73 so someone is below age 73 probably they're still almost young and but we what was surprising to me very pretty big difference this is old age threshold it's about four fourth your difference it's regional difference and that's old age dependency traditional age dependency also Italian regions and if you take into account increases in life expectancy that your person is old when his remaining life expectancy is 15 years and less completely different picture okay this is for probabilistic sense this is even more interesting because you take people 65 plus this is Germany that's traditional proportion 65 plus this proportion with threshold old age threshold 15 years and less it's not only that it's much lower but also the variance the spread is much lower and that can be shown mathematically in the book I think we have a chapter in application in appendix where we show this mathematically and this is China and this is old age dependence ratio here it's completely squeeze uncertainty so this is traditional age dependency this is prospective which takes into account that that people takes into account life increase in life expectancy so not only it's just much slower it's just also much certain this is China okay now let's look few at some features of dynamic old age threshold now on this picture I show like for several European countries proportion of adult life above age 65 what I call here by the adult life that the person yours leave above age 65 in this case divided by overall person yours leave an adult age above age 20 so people spend more and more time males and females above and their old age if you look at traditional pictures now that's how old age threshold is changing you see if it was around 65 and the 80s now it's above 70 for female for males and above almost 75 for females that's how proportion of adult life looks if we take into account this new old age threshold it's completely different picture people spend less and less time in adult age in old age so they spend more more time in the productive ages this is another justification why we should look at the different old age threshold not 65 not fixed what we have here five year death rates at two old age threshold one traditional 65 and another this dynamic you see traditional one life death rates is just declining declining everywhere Austria Italy Sweden well Russia special case and if you look at the prospective old age threshold dynamical dates cause it is basically constant for the last hundred years mortality at age at the old age threshold is almost unchanged these are period date now the same as for cohorts which is even more important these are cohorts you see of course the cohort have to die out then we can check what happened to cover you see this is tragedy this is traditional 65 so mortality rates at age 65 would fall all the time but at at old age threshold the invariant the invariant for all countries so that's what we should select as a threshold and not something which is changing you know every every year now we all know that life expected the highest life expectancy the lower the more aging is happening this is only when we look at this traditional from my point of view not not justified a measure of aging of age now if we take into account new measures of aging that take into account changes in life expectancy people are living longer that they're healthier that they're physically stronger than pictures very different this is just example projections for Germany increases in median changes in median age from 2013 2015 if we have this first scenario is no change in life expectancy this one is one year change in life expectancy to your change in life expectancy per decade now now what happened if we don't have any changes life expectancy population Germany median age population Germany is three years older by 2050 with one year it's four years with two years per decade population becomes six years older median age with perspective measure is completely different of course if there is no changes life expectancy is the same but if you have two years per decade changes increase life expectancy then population is becoming younger now we generalize it all you know it also in this book we introduced the whole concept which is called characteristic approach to the measuring of population aging so what it does basically we look at characteristics of people and we see how this characteristic change at different ages and ups what is this what is the sound sensor and using this approach we may study aging and the speed of aging along different dimensions because aging is multi-dimensional thing we have to look at a different currency physical cognitive health and old age threshold can be different in different if you use different characteristics what is good with this approach that we convert everything to the same metric and this is age and then they can combine different measures of aging like walking speed and chair rise or hand grip completely different measures we can combine them in one measure because everyone every measure refers and trans translates particular measure into age and this is just I think important example for United Kingdom showing different characteristics although taken from live table now what do we have here in 2010 at age 65 we fix life expectancy we fix mortality rate and the fix we call it life course ratio it's the ratio of people at 65 it would be 65 person yours live above age 65 to a person yours lived above age 20 what do we see here now if we take mortality rates so what what is here here we say that in 2000 if we fix it in 2010 then according to UN in 2040 mortality rate that was observed of people at age 65 in 2010 would be observed to people at age 70 in 2040 now the same remaining life expectancy as was at people at age 65 would be in 2040 for people 67 or 68 and life course ratio which is basically also in this book we have the whole chapter about pensions some very very rough estimates should be to have intergenerational equitable pension age it should follow this trajectory it's a life course ratio as we call it so basically if people are retiring at this trajectory they're retiring at better health conditions if we can say that mortality is a proxy for health condition and usually it is and there were a number of papers you including one gym hotel which shows that basically it's there's a strong correlation this is also another example of use of a different characteristic which is called hand grip strengths it shows that people with high education are aging slow more slow than people with low education here for example reference group is people with low education United States it's health retirement study at age 60 they have the same hand grip strengths as people as male at age 65.8 with high education and women at 65.7 and of you see of course it diminishes because of the selection further there is I think selection is manifested very strongly okay this things this this approach was or has already been used by United Nations it was used in a world aging report in world aging 2019 actually we are planning to do some joint paper with them also now and that is I think time is already running okay but this is the last thing you remember I showed you that people were called older persons called by 60 in 2017 revision now in revision 2019 they're not calling them anymore older they're just calling people age 65 and over and I think that's partly you know maybe some some of our influence we have data sheet if someone is interested we prepare data sheet on aging just all countries of the world based on UN data plenty of different indicators based on you old age threshold on new definition of age are calculated and yeah okay and the major conclusion is that of course there will be sort of challenges due to aging but we should not there is no reason to exaggerate them simply using mis-measurement that's it thank you thank you very much Sergei for your interesting presentation and I think there is quite a lot of space for questions from the public thank you for this interesting presentation so now well I have a technical question so how do you compute expected the life expectancy I mean just on the statistics of the current population or this is one question the other question is yeah so so somehow it's a little earlier question so the how much as say expenditure in health system increased in in this year and and and also how much more time have we spent in education age I mean how how longer did the people I mean spend in education probably that's increased I mean so the well-educated people maybe we didn't have PhD programs for example I don't know a hundred years ago and so is there a measure of how much the education time has increased on average so first question is very simple because in demography it's very very standard way of calculating life expectancy it's called period life expectancy based on this year mortality rates so we measure mortality rates for every age group and we calculate it's just standard it's called these are called life tables from this life tables we know expected life expectancy at every age so this is very standard technique there are cohort life tables and I showed some example with covert life tables there we have to wait until all members of court you know die and then we can calculate so-called cohort life expectancy fact that the prospective age is just constant I mean if you define prospective age in this way I mean it's just the distribution which is moving I mean so your question is basically is it the question is whether we calculate life perspective age using period or covert life table is that the question because this is very important demographic question usually if you see it in a group of demographers that would be a question and the good thing is and we also had several papers on the issue that unless there are strong disturbances then period if you calculate a prospective if you have prospective median age or you calculate based on period life tables or cohort life tables results are basically the same so the measures of prospective measures of age they are basically very very similar and that's good thing because otherwise how do you measure it as you do use period life tables or court like that now regarding education if I understood it correctly how do we know education of people well they do spend longer in school because simply I mean I guess if you take 100 years ago first of all it would be a very small selection of people who would go to with education with a high education and I guess it would be not like now you have some to be a medical doctor I guess you have to study maybe almost 20 years or 15 years so they do spend but well that's slightly different question I guess it's just you know I think is Anna is here and she may know because she was doing a lot with education thank you I think we have another question there on the other side of the room that was great that was really interesting I'm just curious about in this last section on characteristics and so forth on of course there is a there is also an effective absolute time in terms of how much we know right so one of them is just it the attitude towards do you look at things like what better correlates with attitudes to risk or optimism or attitudes to change to what extent is perspective age a better predictor of some of the characteristics that we consider at least in the last couple of days critical to changing our attitudes to time on the planet right so if you if you're if you're impatient to make your career successful because you think you're going to be old when you're 60 that might have unintended consequences on the planet and so I'm just curious about this whole obvious effect of absolute time on absolute levels of knowledge and which are better predictors of attitudes towards say the environment is it is perspective age the thing that's going to be more important or chronological age now first of all perspective age has nothing to do with our expectations I mean in terms of individual expectations we have forecasts of life expectancy how they're done it's different story many organizations many institutions are making projections of life expectancy or population projections now when you make population projections you have to assume something about future development of life expectancy and if you look if you ask demographers I don't think that there is any unique sort of idea of what would be life expectancy and say 30 or 40 years but there was a great paper of Jim Wopel with I forgot with someone it wasn't in science it was probably maybe 20 years ago that we always underestimate increases in life expectancy always so life expectancy would be projected by UN and in few years I mean in 10 15 years it would be high the highest life expectancy would be higher than it was expected so in this sense what we are using here there is nothing to do with subjective feelings subjective feelings are extremely important that what what I mentioned like if you take subjective health because you may make measures of health life expectancy and it's extremely tricky I absolutely understand that distinction I'm not it's just that it has an impact on attitudes towards the future if I know this to be the case right this physiological fact not subjective or psychological fact if I knew that to be the case at the age of 20 I might have decided I'm gonna spend 10 years I'm not gonna go to university I'm gonna spend 10 years doing something completely different which is collectively profitable not personally profitable so I'm interested in those kinds of shifts in characteristics attended upon the insight that you're giving us well I think definitely you have your peers you leave you see that most of your peers are still alive okay and if you would compare for example with the previous generation probably people would live less so you knowing from from the literature from from from environment from people around you you know that people live longer so you know that probably you would live longer because that's what you that that's where medicine comes where all this research comes so that's why probably most of the people would not consider that they pass away you know when they study you know the university that there will be you know dad at age 40 45 they know of course it happens with some delay I guess in this sense of course you're right because you don't know what's going on to the future we didn't experience it but you know what has already happened you know when our parents die when some people close to us died they died definitely in most cases at later age than our grandparents so we see this dynamics and of course I think this dynamics also is sort of projected for our own behavior in our minds if this is a response hi if if this prospective age was had had to be used not only to study population dynamics but to take decision on the individual like retirement age or whatever right then the individual person would probably might have different prospective age depending on which region or you you you calculate the estimate so for instance if I I have a prospective age based on expected life in Italy or in Europe or maybe my home region or maybe in the region where I'm resident now because you saw that there are different you show that there are different life expectancy changes across regions so how to choose you know the the special group country region of Europe to to to to use to to to define the prospective age if prospective age had to be used at individual level prospective age is always population measure because life expectancy is population measure so you can you can construct certain groups and you can sort of you know having that what we also also did like you could sort of associate yourself with a particular population group and then you may say okay that's my prospective age but you see most what I was telling today and try to say it's not about even the future it's about the past that we always we compare people today at age 65 with people at age 65 almost 100 years ago or 60 years ago and that's already not correct because people were different in Europe we have on average about two years per decade increase in life expectancy okay at least before COVID COVID is it will have very little impact it has impact on period life table on a particular year of COVID but if you just do sort of cohort things it will have almost no impact so what I was mostly telling showing the history you know this history the population is becoming younger if you take into account changes in life expectancy so there is not much how put it our subjective feelings you can be we are actually one of the chapters we do this type of things on subjective health on subjective issues but most of it is objective you had life expectancy particular life expectancy you know the proportion you know the people the age structure of people you know life expectancy we can adjust things and you see that that population is it's not really aging I think that is the major message so we have to use correct measures and we have to take into account that people live longer because what's happening now governments increase pension age on one hand like 66 67 68 now but they still say that we are old at age 65 which has no logic because they say okay then they increase our pension age in in old age instead of saying no people are different now people are not old anymore at 65 and that what strikes me usually because when I read okay 65 old age okay then people have to work until age 67 68 so they force people like to work at old age no they should say 65 is not anymore in old age so that is the message so if there are no other questions I would I thank Sergei for his presentation and I invite professor Brian