 We've got a bit of an odd ball slate tonight for daily fantasy baseball where all the pitchers are not Super high strikeout guys you look at the composition of this slate And you don't see many guys who have the potential to put up 10 11 strikeouts as we get at least from typically one guy each night in MLB DFS So that does alter our plan of attack quite a bit because typically my approach is to just go to those guys and try to Get the upside today Might be able to play things a bit safer at pitch prioritize High-floor matchups and kind of go with just the best real-world pitchers, which is typically not our approach So we'll break down who that leads us to where we're turning for tonight and more to get you ready for Friday night And then they'll be DFS welcome on into the solo shop That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm my name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down Friday night's 10 a game main slate with Lockstep for 7 0 5 p.m. Eastern for today Now there are three games on this slate on the east coast that have some potential for some rain that could lead to Either delays or potentially post-pomance the first one is involved for the Orioles and Mariners And we have New York for the Rangers and Yankees and Philadelphia for the Phillies and the Mets of those three It seems like the Philadelphia game is the one most at risk of delays or a post-pomance just based on the timing of the rain Baltimore likely safest with rain clearing out right around first pitch So if they you know do a delay and then play that could work out okay for them with no in-game delays and New York seems like the rain be getting there towards the end So I feel personally right now, okay using Baltimore and New York players in those two cities Philadelphia, I'm a bit sketchier on especially because it's two pretty good pitchers there. So The risk of a delay becomes a bit heightened when it's a pitcher versus when it's batter So most concerned about Philadelphia But then also would want to check back later on timing for Baltimore and for in New York We'll outline why that's Baltimore game may be a bit important I in stacks later on today and we'll get you set with the pitchers in just one second First a reminder that baseball season is in full swing and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers can get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 That's up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win So don't miss your chance to snag a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join Fandall today Fandall official partner of Major League Baseball Major League Baseball trademarks used with permission must be 21 plus and present in select states first online a real money wager only $10 deposit required Refund issue is non withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply seful terms at fandall.com a slash sports book Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 42 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat an indiana 1 809 and with it in Wyoming and Kansas 1 805 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana's 1 8777 770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 5050 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1 8778 hope and wire text open why and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Pitching preview for this Friday main slate Logan Webb comes in with a salary of $10,200 he is your highest a salary guy on this site Lucas G. Alito is 10,000 Cody Senga potentially in the rain in 99 Shane Bieber 96 Taiwan Walker facing off with Senga at 94 Chris Bassett they played a dome at 93 Kyle Gibson 92 with Logan Gilbert in 9,000 Then we had Joe Musgrove JP France Brian Bayo and that she and Patrick Sandoval and James Caprellian as the others at $8,000 or higher Now given the lack of strikeouts on the slate I think we are allowed to go at guys who are good real-world pitchers and in good real-world matches We'll get to that here in a second, but I think the top guy I just want the best overall pitcher on this slate and to me that guy is Logan Webb Now the matter for Webb is not great. He's facing Arizona and I don't like using That their pitcher facing Arizona because they're a very good team 114 WRC plus against righties and they can run like crazy So not a good matchup, but I really like Logan Webb We're up to 15 starts this year and Webb has a 3.19 a skill interactive ER a that is the best on this slate By almost a half rod in each pitcher's most relevant sample the strike area for Webb is 25% Which is not huge But it's also not bad relative to others on this specific slate and Webb will get a good number of ground balls That all leads to a 3.11 ER a for him and he can have big individual games He's hit 11 plus strikeouts twice now We've seen Webb face at Diamondbacks just once and that game he pitched really well one run allowed across seven innings Not a lot of strikeouts there But that game was on the road and this one is at home and Webb Does seem to get more strikeouts at home versus on the road So on a lot of slates if we have like a ton of high upside guys Maybe we're not getting to Logan Webb, but on this one I just want the best real-world pitcher and to me that guy is pretty definitively Logan Webb So despite a non great matchup I still think Logan Webb is the best pitcher on tonight's slate tend to me a very fair salary for a guy I feel great about despite not having a great matchup for tonight The second pitching option is a guy who is in the mold of good real-world pitcher in a High-floor matchup and that's going to Joe Musgrove. So he's pretty similar to Webb where he's not a high strikeout pitcher He's not a high strikeout matchup but I think he's a good a real-world pitcher and I do think that Musgrove has a better matchup overall than what Webb has Musgrove is facing the Nationals They do a good job of avoiding strikeouts But they don't do a whole lot with it because they have a 92 WRC plus against righties with a 135 ISO and a 33% fly ball rate Musgrove is also himself had really nice bad at ball data recently across six starts with more curveballs He's led up just a 21% hard hit rate He has the best mark in that department by 10 percentage points on this slate and a 28% fly ball rate as well That's a big part of why Musgrove's ERA in the stretch is so nice at 2.88 now the strikeouts haven't really been there He had just one strikeout last time out But has had some spike games eight strikeouts in one of those games and he's faced some low strikeout teams like Boston and Cleveland So that takes the sample a bit But he also gets a low strikeout matchup here It all leads to a pretty low strikeout projection from Musgrove of 4.6 and that's not big and typically I'm not gonna consider that on a full slate but Again, this slate is just different where there aren't a lot of high strikeout options and Musgrove I think is a good picture with the ability to exceed that number even in a Not elite matchup. So Musgrove is not unfaithable or anything I don't think that by any means especially given that he is a pretty heavy favorite for tonight Which does correlate well with daily fantasy popularity, but if you've gotten inclination towards someone else You can definitely follow it But to me it's gonna be web 1 and Musgrove 2 as the top pitching options on tonight's slate over on Fandall.com Now with Musgrove being the value play we got the entire board open to us for that third slot I think you could consider both Lucas G Alito and Brian Bayo facing each other But I'm gonna give Chris Bassett the slight nod here Bassett salary is $9,300 he's at home against the A's and that does help matters quite a bit Bassett has had some stumbles recently And it's annoying because it seemed like he had righted the ship from his early season struggles Whereas Velo is down didn't have great results. It seemed like he had gotten better But I don't think he's fully regressed I would say his bad games in the recent stretch have come against the Rangers Orioles and Twins Those are all offenses with some firepower and all those starts were on the road The one home start for Bassett in this time was against the Astros He held them to two runs across eight innings He also threw seven and two-thirds shutout innings against the Mets on the road before that So we've had recent good starts, which means our job is to basically make sure he hasn't broken between then and now I will say that the velocity for Bassett did go down in that range of star Which it was his most recent one, but it hadn't find the start before that So I think the Velo dip does mean you can and potentially should avoid him If he's going to be the chalk in tournaments and there is a good chance that he is given how heavily favored the blue J's are for tonight and That's easier to go away from him with web and Musgrove also available here, but straight up I'm gonna rank Bassett third on my list But I would say both him and Musgrove you got the ability to deviate I think they will probably want to be both pretty popular So I feel firm and like ranking web first despite the fact his matchup is not great And then I will go Musgrove to Bassett three we'll talk about Brian Bale as a potential pivot in things to watch later on First they'll let's dive into the stacks for today beginning with at course field of the angels They're facing Kyle Freeland who had a stomach bug earlier on this week So his start got pushed back and that might have been advantageous for him because weirdly He's been a lot better at home than on the road this year And so it could be a bit unnerving to stack against him with this game at course field Freeland at home this year three point one nine era with a five point nine two era on the road But those numbers last year in a larger sample or flipped where he was much worse at home And then he was on the road and as always we're dealing with small samples here So unless we believe that Freeland has conjured more gravity and can make course field less of a launchpad I think we should expect him to have worse numbers at home than on the road over a larger sample So to me, I'm not gonna worry too much about the home road splits for this year specifically Most recently we've seen Freeland trying to correct the issues He has had by throwing more four seamers and fewer sinkers and hasn't worked out ten percent strikeout rate doing that For the full season Freeland has a four point four era with a four point eight seven expected era He's letting up too much hard contact too many fly balls and the angels are a team That can punish those because they have a thirty nine percent fly ball right against lefties so far this year on the active roster And it's course field. It is one of the warmest temperatures of the night and I think all in all I don't see much to fear here. I don't buy into Freeland success at home and I don't buy into You know Thinking that what he's done so far will be sustainable So to me the angels are a great play and they are the top stack for tonight I do want to dig into Hunter Renfrow quick. He has not been himself this year It's ISO against lefties is muted at 198 His batted ball numbers in June are the exact same as they were the first two months as well So it's not as if he's getting better because I always kind of want to look you know Have you improved the past couple weeks or so and we have not seen that from Renfrow He's been pretty much exactly the same. He is striking out a bit less Which could mean that he's sacrificing hard contact in order to put the ball in play more The positive is that even with the decreased power numbers well to do his baseline They're still not bad like a 198 ISO is okay So I'm still down to use him especially with Renfrow salary at $3,500 for tonight that for a core field slate with it or $3,100 that for a guy with his power core shield Pretty tough to turn down. So I do like Renfrow and I will be going there I just am not as enthusiastic about as it would be in previous years until seeing that salary 31 I think that that can make us feel a bit better about that for sure number two stack is a Padres They're facing Patrick Corbin who I think we've seen recently we can stack against him still Especially when he's facing tougher spots and he does get one of those tonight We're up to 10 star sample on Corbin since he scaled back his slider usage and in those 10 starts He has a 4.45 era which is fine But there have been some rough games in there as well He let up six certain runs the Royals and four earned to the Marlins and those two teams not elite against lefties by any means The reasons we've seen Corbin have down games is because he's still letting up too much hard contact in this sample This 10-star sample his hard hit rate allowed is 47% Just a 14% strikeout rate which means more balls in play and when 47% of them are hard hits That's a lot of hard contact the Padres can't hit lefties Well 114 and WRC plus there in a 197 ISO they went bananas against Alex Wood last night So I think we got the green light to stack them once again here on this slate I talked to the yesterday show leading into that woodmatch about how I was willing to be high and want so too against lefties And I'm still fine with him But I would bump him down a bit extra here because lefties have an ISO below 100 against Corbin this year And that's with teams keeping just their best lefties in the line to face him and last year over a larger sample that ISO was 143 so even when Corbin is really struggled He's been good against lefties and again that's with teams putting just their best lefties out there to face him So so does fine. I still think he'd be in the top four for stacks But yesterday I thought that he could push him below many Machado's and her Bogarts I think for today, especially with Machado going going off last night I would go to tease one Machado to Bogarts three and then maybe putting so to and then next for the fourth spot after those two teams in the angels and the Padres The Jays are the next logical stack and I don't mind them We'll talk about them and things to watch But I want to talk about a bit more contrarian option here instead because the angels are of course field the Padres are facing Patrick Corbin tonight or after they put up like, you know, 37 runs So both those teams will and should be popular. So I want to talk about a more contrarian option So let's discuss the Baltimore Orioles They're facing Logan Gilbert and if you listen to the show all year, you know, I like Logan Gilbert a lot I've used him as a pitcher a bunch this year and it's worked out a decent number of times But Gilbert's in a funk right now across his past seven starts He's throwing fewer foreseen fastballs and that approach has not worked He's letting up a 44 percent hard hit rate with a 46 percent fly ball rate He typically does struggle in those areas. So that part specifically is nothing new but the strikeout rate is also down for Gilbert it's at 21 percent and That strikeout number being high for Gilbert is the key to masking his issues with hard contact And that number is not where it needs to be right now Gilbert's predictably has struggled in this time with a 4.85 era He let up six runs the Angels five to the Yankees He has had some good starts, but it seems like there is upside in stacking against him here The Orioles very good team against righties with a 110 WRC plus So we haven't sent it to be different tonight given how chalky our first two stacks are and the Orioles get us that differentiation in a matchup with a lot of hard contact and there are good offense themselves So I think it all adds up To checking out Baltimore tournaments tonight and feeling pretty good about them So to me if you want to get a bit different without being totally dumb I think the Orioles are your best stack for tonight beyond those two we discussed earlier on It does seem like Ryan O'Hern is establishing himself as the cleanup batter for the Orioles against righties Which is kind of fun because the salary is still $2,600 But he has a 279 ISO against righties across 93 plate appearances Now we've seen this from a her and stretches before which does mean it could stop But it also means not totally out of nowhere. So I don't think it's totally fluky I like O'Hern as a value play even if you don't go for a full stack here at $2,600 The Padres are pretty easy to stack I would say especially given the pitching salaries But if you want to maybe get to Otani at $5,000 in Coors Field Maybe O'Hern is a value play to help you get there for tonight. Let's go now to things to watch I said earlier, I don't mind Brian Bayo and I wanted to expand on that here given that Musgrove and Bassett Have pretty good odds of being very popular for tonight But Bayo is facing the White Sox. They had just a 90 WRC plus against righties this year Not a big strikeout team, but they're about average There's not a low strikeout team and that's fine in this slate Bayo has a 3.93 skill interactive ERA across 11 starts So we don't need as many strikeouts to hang on this slate Which means I'm fine giving Bayo some thoughts as the third pitcher if you're worried about Bassett's velocity We're about popularity. We're about Musgrove's popularity I think all those things are valid and I would be okay going to Bayo if you're worried about that I mentioned the Jays before for stacking I think that there was really solid consideration and again probably would rank them third straight up They're facing James Caprellian who is not a big strikeout guy and it means they also get to face EA's bullpen I am a bit lower here because Caprellian does a good job of keeping hard contact and check But I think they're the Jays are definitely fine option here There's not quite as high in them as the Padres or the Angels And I felt okay deviating for that third stack earlier on the Rockies Obviously also in Coorsfields facing Patrick Sandoval and you never want to fully ignore a team at Coors But the Rockies are just so bad against lefties. They have a 60 WRC plus Wolf Sandoval does get a lot of ground balls So I don't mind the Rockies for one off. So there are guys you like against lefties here But it's hard to get a full stack given how wretched they have been Against lefties so far this year. So stacking options to me are going to be the Angels and Padres Followed by the Blue Jays, but then the Orioles are a really fun Contrarian option I do want to get to especially in single entry tournaments where I think people will focus primarily on the Angels and the Padres Let's finish up here is some Dinger calls for today the boring one. Let's go Brandon Drury I know his numbers against lefties this year have not been great We've seen him be kind of weird in that regard previously too, but it's Drury at Coorsfield I think this makes a lot of sense. I still believe in Mike Trout. This is not like an anti Mike Trout thing I think that the bad of ball data still tells us that the slump will not last forever So still in on trout But let's go Brandon Drury as the boring Harun call for today for the fun one I want to go Ryan O'Hern again Matchup where he is facing guy. What's up a lot of hard contact and fly balls Oh, her and has been hitting for power in the big leagues so far right in the middle of that order So we'll go with him as the fun one. So Dinger calls for your Friday gonna be Brandon Drury and Ryan O'Hern That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot I want to thank you all for tuning in for today and this entire week Do not forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast eat wherever you get your podcast If you'd like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or on Spotify also check us out on the Fandall YouTube page And on the Fandall TV plus app on Amazon fire TVs Apple TV and Roku as well to get us along with Covering the spread up and Adams run it back all your favorite Fandall TV shows along with your favorite Fandall podcast as well If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups for tonight and we'll talk to you once again Monday for another week of MLB DFS this has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network