 What is going on ladies and gentlemen today is The 10th today's 1010 it is October 10th 2023 12 0 5 p.m. And We are back with episode 29 of let's talk crypto. I am your host Bitcoin J And I am on my own today The BTC queen is still traveling. She's on the other side of the world So we haven't been able to kind of get our schedules to align So I will be doing this one on my own again this week Hopefully we can get her back soon though. So let's talk about what is going on this week What we're gonna be talking about on this live stream today Starting off with bitcoins price Currently sitting at 27,400 dollars There hasn't been too much happening over the last week or so today we're gonna we're gonna kind of dive in a little bit on On what I'm watching right now as far as crypto and prices We're gonna do kind of an analysis on everything going on when I'm currently watching what trades I'm currently looking at watching what setups. I'm currently looking at what my targets are what I think might happen We're gonna go over some news and we're gonna go over the economic calendar, of course Today this week is kind of a big week. We have a big event this week on Thursday So we have something tomorrow. We have something even bigger Thursday. So we'll get into that and And then we'll end it of course with a Q&A So if you guys has have any questions about anything that we cover in today's video in today's live stream Make sure to drop it in the comments And we'll answer it at the end of this of the live stream. So let's go ahead and jump right into it, right? Starting off with the bitcoins price currently sitting at 27,400 dollars Kind of been sitting here for for a little bit now, right since we broke in here on Sunday, October 1st we've kind of been consolidating in this range here and like we spoke about Last week probably there's a big big Resistance here. Let me switch my chart out here There's a big resistance here at 28,000 dollars that we have not been able to break through yet So I'll dive a little bit deeper into that In the analysis Let's go ahead and take a look at the rest of the market and see how it's been doing over the last seven days We can see that over the last week Bitcoin is dead flat right now Hasn't gone up hasn't gone down just kind of sitting in the same spot Ethereum over the last seven days is down five percent We have BNB down three percent XRP down two and a half percent after it's run up So it's back back to the 50 cent area, which is an interesting area for me If you're looking for for some trades there with XRP We have Solana down eight and eight point eight percent. That was a big mover The previous week, right? Cardano down five and a half percent doge down four and a half percent Tron down 1.2 percent Polygon down eight percent polka dot down six percent like coin down four percent. So Basically, we have a retrace here of The the big move that we got at the beginning of the month, right? kind of everything's kind of pulled back a bit And retraced back to where everything started. So let's take a look at the top 100 top gainers and top losers over the last seven days At top gainers, we have the trust wallet at number one up twenty four percent tokenize exchange up eleven point one percent Clayton up five and a half percent Monero of five percent as an og right there and Render up four point three percent and also avalanche three up three point nine percent. So As on top losers, we have red X down twenty four percent I feel like red X we it is always on this list whether it's a top gainer or top loser But it's always on the list Either up a lot or down a lot. It's never out of it though. We have Thor chain down seventeen point seven percent gala down Fifteen point six percent Casper down eleven point eight percent eight point down eleven point seven percent So definitely a interesting week going on here Pretty slow overall. It's dive into the economic calendars And this is where things get a little bit spicy for this week on the economic calendars tomorrow We have the FOMC minutes. So what exactly is that? Basically a report of Their last meeting right so they had a meeting last month where they decided to not raise interest rate hikes Not lower them, but just to pause them for the month and then so basically this is a summary of What happened? During that meeting right what what what you know made them come to that decision So we're gonna get that tomorrow on the reason that could bring some volatility is because it could give some hints on Potentially where things could be going next and what they might decide for their next meeting So the next meeting is on the 1st of November Right now the market is anticipating a another pause But this will give us more insight on if that might be the case or if maybe they're leaning towards Another rate hike which if that were the case then you can expect prices to potentially drop down lower so Definitely something to look out for that. That's tomorrow Wednesday October 11th at 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Then on Thursday, this is when we have the The big day right big day of the week, which is the inflation inflation rates. All right, so We're getting inflation rates the report basically from last month and Right now consensus is at 4.1% right last month it came in at 4.3% This month consensus sits at 4.1% so it's expecting for inflation to go lower Now this is definitely going to bring volatility into the markets One thing that we need to be aware of is where that report comes, right? So Consensus is basically what everyone is expecting and what the market is expecting, right? So if it comes out at consensus, you know, there there there might be a little bit of movement But I don't expect too much movement now if there if it comes out higher than consensus We could see some volatility where the prices could drop if it comes out lower than consensus Then we could see the same thing but To the upside where prices could go up if you guys remember back in the beginning of the year During the week of the inflation reports Bitcoin is is like Bitcoin was was pretty much taking off It was an igniter for Bitcoin's price as as inflation dropped Bitcoin's price would go up. So It's always something interesting to keep in mind and to watch for here this week to see how price Reacts once this comes out. This once again is on Thursday, October 12th at 8 30 a.m. Eastern standard time. All right So other than that on Friday nothing too important Looking forward to next week Again, nothing is super important the next main thing which would Impact markets would definitely be the the Fed interest rate decision and that's not until November 1st So we still have a few weeks before we can start looking into that So I'm talking about the threat interest rate decision Let's take a look at where we're at as far as the target rate Probabilities for that meeting that's gonna happen on the 1st of November and right now as you can see 88.3 percent. There's an 88.3 percent probability That interest rates will stay the same and there's an 11.7 percent chance that they would go up So there's there's pretty much a no chance of it dropping as of November, right? So we're not seeing any drops in interest rates this year However, when we go towards when we start looking towards let's see I think it was we looked at it last week May and June We start seeing the market is thinking that there is a drop in in Interest rates, so that's definitely gonna be an interesting time and that's going to align with Bit the Bitcoin halving event as well so That's why a lot of people including myself are thinking, you know, 2024 is definitely gonna be a good time for the market Where we can potentially see Bitcoin's price really take off. So Now we've covered, you know, the overall market where prices are And what we're looking for this week in the economic calendar Let's go ahead and jump into some of the headline news over the last few days that that we've been watching here so the first thing is last week began the trial for Sbf, San Bank, Manfreed and You know Basically, they're saying what we already know that the Empire was built on lies and They've pretty much been been going at him and and saying that the US government said that the His crypto empire was a house of cards built on a lie in the opening opening trial statements So he they said he had wealth. He had power. He had influence, but all of it was built on lies So that was pretty much the opening statement there things got as things got rolling then they had F an X FTX developer who disclosed eight bill of eight billion dollar discrepancy during the trial and Let me see he went on to say he recounted the vet that the event that led to his resignation Because he was a former Let me see here he was a witness He says he resigned from FTX after finding out Alameda Research used stolen customer funds to repay loans So he was a former FTX developer who revealed a software bug that had a profound impact basically, so that that is definitely pretty crazy and I mean, I think a lot. I think a lot of it is stuff that that we pretty much Thought that was happening in you But I think there's gonna be a lot of surprises that develop during this trial as well And and I think he's definitely if he does not spend get any jail time then They're definitely somehow paying off the courts because there's no way that this guy does not get jail time I just I refuse to believe that Moving on in other news. We have fidelity Who labels Bitcoin the most secure and decentralized crypto? So 4.5 trillion dollar asset manager fidelity says that Bitcoin is the most secure decentralized and sound digital money compared to any other digital asset, of course, these are things that we've been Preaching about for the last few years. We're just glad that that others are starting to catch up They the report read that Bitcoin is fundamentally different from any other digital asset No other digital asset is likely to improve upon Bitcoin as a monetary good because Bitcoin is the most Secured decentralized sound digital money and any improvement will potentially face trade-offs so Yeah, that's that's definitely what we've been kind of talking about here I know since I've gotten into crypto back in 2016 And started Kind of putting this info out there in 2017. So we've been talking about this this these things for a long time for about seven years now We're glad that others are finally catching up, right? So let's go ahead and dive into the analysis pretty much, you know, as far as news is pretty much all I got there There's not too much going on as far as headline news Let's go ahead and dive into the market analysis here and take a look at At what's going on currently where things are at What I'm watching how I'm playing it this week and some potential trade setups that we could that we can be taken here so let's go ahead and Turn to the monitor here and let's take a look here now The first thing that we're watching or let's start off here on the weekly time frame This is this is always where I like to start. I like to start on the weekly except when When we have a new month, then that's when I take a look at the I Take a look at the monthly time frame But other than that you really don't need to look at the monthly time frame that often just every new month It's good to look at it to kind of see from From a top view Right where things are so let's let's go ahead and take a look here on the weekly and I'm gonna go over an analysis that I did a couple days ago for the discord group here that we can You know, I do a breakdown every Monday Basically with my group where I do a top-down analysis. I look at everything from the economic calendar the DXY Then we look at then we do a top-down analysis on Bitcoin from Monthly weekly and daily and then we build our trading plan for the week using that that market report market analysis on Monday So that's that's usually how we break it down. So let's go ahead and kind of take a look here at it I'll just kind of be reading it here to you guys so and showing you on the chart. So Let's start off with the DXY actually here and the reason though that we like to look at the DXY is This is a dollar currency index And it's because remember that Bitcoin trades again directly against the DXY right so It it definitely correlates and it definitely matters What the dollar does because when it goes up like this, you can see that this is a weekly chart for 11 weeks in a row The DXY went up During this period of time when the DXY went up Bitcoin's price dropped over 12% So now you see why why this matters, right now The reason it's important that we look at the DXY here is because We we've hit a key area here a key resistance here that's played It's played as resistance. It's played as support Multiple times over if you look back on its history, right? so right now what we're watching is We had the support here that we bounced off Several times then we had a deviation lower Right, and then Bitcoin's price moved up And then what happened? Let's look at the resistance side, right that we're currently at right now It was support and we broke through it then we had resistance Resistance and now we're kind of breaking above that resistance. However This is similar to what happened here, right a deviation This this could be a deviation here that were that we're seeing to the upside to kind of trap that liquidity up there And we could potentially see the DXY revisit You know over the next few months revisit this area down here It doesn't need to go all the way back down here, but it could you know retrace a bit here pull back a bit here so That's why we're watching that and then on top of that Look at this candle right here specifically. What is that candle? That is a bearish pin bar So that's a bearish pin bar is a bearish signal especially when it happens at a resistance level so not Alone a bearish pin bar alone is doesn't have that much weight but a bearish pin bar at resistance has can carry a lot of weight because that is a bearish reversal signal and it's saying that basically Sellers are taking over and the buyers have run out of steam, right? And if we look at the current candle here It's looking very very simple. It's another bearish pin bar. So that now this is a new candle that just opened up, but Those are key things that we're watching here so moving on to Bitcoin Let's Pull up. Let me see Let's pull this one up here on the weekly So here on the weekly, let me remove this We can kind of get an idea of what's going on here we spoke about Previously we had this double top type of pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern When we got this double top pattern when we're when we're up here we spoke about if We dropped we probably dropped to about twenty three thousand dollars because that was a double top pattern target and Indeed we saw this candle happen here now We didn't go to twenty three thousand dollars, which was a target that that we were looking at But we went as low as twenty four thousand dollars Right here. So now what we're what we're looking at here is a potential double bottom pattern and With the double bottom pattern that's gonna that's gonna give us a potential target of about thirty six thousand dollars So so that's currently on the luck on the larger time frames. That's currently what we're watching for here That potential double bottom pattern Breakout and the breakout for the for the neckline here is on at about twenty eight thousand dollars So which is exactly where we're stuck at right now So if we do get that breakout above twenty eight thousand dollars, there's a potential here for a move up To about thirty six thousand dollars now This is not meaning it's gonna move directly to thirty six thousand dollars as soon as we break above it Because this is a weekly time frame and you can see from the time that we saw the double top To the time that we reached our target. It took what one two three four five weeks So now we're not saying that in in five weeks This is gonna happen But this is something that we can potentially see in Quarter four, which is the quarter that we just entered over October November December So something that we're watching here Potentially a potential play for the end of the year, right? So let's let's see what else we got here Again, we're still stuck below twenty eight thousand dollars I think that's a key level here that we need to watch for and then we need to pay attention for Last week's candle It was a doji candle So that's kind of an indecisive candle, right? We need a weekly candle to close above $28,000 before we can say that we have flipped that resistance into support So until then we can expect price to continue getting rejected at that level So even if we we continue to go above it if we don't get a weekly candle to close here We're probably gonna continue to get rejected there Support levels currently right now are gonna be twenty seven thousand dollars. You can see here about twenty seven point three thousand dollars Then we also have of course twenty six thousand dollars That's played as a big support here. And of course twenty five thousand dollars has been the big Bottom here during this this time period here. So Of course as far as chart patterns we look we already spoke about the potential double bottom here with the target of thirty six thousand dollars Um Liquidity levels so let's let's take a look at liquidity levels here. I'm gonna pull up the high block liquidity Chart here the heat map here so we can take a look. Let's start off on the Let's start off on the 12 hour. So this is the most immediate that you're gonna see, right? And we're going to just kind of look at this area here To give us an idea of what it is that's going on where the the liquidity for bitcoins price is right now Which could potentially lead us to? give us a target or a Give us an idea of where those next moves could be to so Right now you can see that there's two main levels of liquidity here We have this bright yellow spot down here. This is sitting at twenty seven thousand two hundred and fifty dollars And we have this up here sitting at about twenty seven thousand eight hundred dollars So it's basically a six hundred dollar level and that's if we look here That's basically where bitcoins price has been trading, right? We've been kind of trading in that range right there so We're thinking that price is probably gonna touch Both of these levels, right? We can potentially drop down lower here to that twenty seven thousand dollar level Before continuing up or if we see the price move up first Then this is this is the play that I've been doing lately and this is probably my favorite play right now But at twenty eight thousand dollars, especially if we don't hit this liquidity level down here and We hit the one on the top then up here at this liquidity level I'm gonna be looking to open short positions here So so that's something that I'm watching especially as we go into Into Thursday when we expect some volatility during the inflation report if I see a Move up here For any reason I'm gonna be looking to to potentially open some short positions up there as close to twenty eight thousand dollars as possible If we see a move lower, then I'll probably hold off and see how price plays out I still feel like that twenty seven thousand dollar area is you know, at least twenty seven thousand two fifty is not a place that I'm opening trades because there is some liquidity at lower levels that we're gonna look at now So we're kind of really zoomed in here looking at the twelve hour heat map. Let's let's Take a step back look at the seven day map here Now in the seven day We can see this is of course a longer time frame but we can see There's a lot again a lot the the majority of the liquidity is To the downside, right? That's where the bright yellow spots are so and that is sitting pretty much right at twenty six thousand from twenty six thousand nine hundred to twenty seven thousand dollars When you go up Yes, there's a little bit of of liquidity here But it's not as much as a liquidity to the downside right now that twenty six thousand nine hundred level So if I'm looking for long positions I'm looking for long positions in this liquidity area right here. So that's gonna be around that twenty seven thousand dollar area So if price drops down to twenty seven thousand dollars and you know Takes out wipes that liquidity level That's that's been a spot that I'm interested in opening some long positions For a move back up with a target at the liquidity levels up here at the twenty eight thousand dollar area so that's that's a Play that I'm looking at as well. So and that's probably we're gonna we're gonna see that play out this week when Probably leading up to the either leading up to the inflation report Or when then the inflation report comes out and Bitcoin makes a move So we're watching for which way that move happens if it's to the downside and it takes out that liquidity pull down here that we're watching and It bounces it starts to bounce back up there at twenty seven thousand I'm interested in opening a long position there if that happens Or if price goes up instead We test that twenty eight thousand dollar level takes out the the little liquidity that we have there We saw in the previous timeframe They're not there. I'm interested to take a short position. So that's pretty much how I'll be playing it this week Depending what happens? And if we go back a little bit further, this is the monthly heat map here liquidity heat map Here we can see that the majority of the liquidity right now is to the downside And that's sitting in that twenty five thousand dollar range Now some liquidity is starting to build up here at that top twenty thousand dollar range Which is just above the highs here that we set up recently But but yeah, and and you can see here guys if we look at If we look back we can see that usually price goes to where the liquidity is So when we were when we were over here, you can see that this was a bright yellow spot price went took that liquidity And then as after we took that liquidity, you can see that the liquidity built up to the upside What are bitcoins price do went to the upside took out that liquidity now? It's just kind of hanging out here and guess what now the liquidity is building to the downside So are we going to have one last move to the downside to take that liquidity out? That could that is a possibility and that is something to watch for and keep in mind Now not saying that that's exactly what's gonna happen, but it is a possible scenario So we always like to kind of Way out all the scenarios to try to see what the best play is at that point If if price were to drop down to those levels at twenty six thousand and twenty five thousand I'm happy to open long positions at those areas there. So definitely something that we're that we're looking for there That I think that's pretty much it I think we pretty much talked about covered everything we wanted to talk about And and you know did the analysis and what I'm looking for this week and how I'm gonna be playing it Taking a look here at This is our trade room trades So I basically log every trade that we take in the trade room in the discord trade room You can see that in September we had a pretty good month overall Let me see it's these here. So September we won every single trade One two three four five six. So we only took six trades again Not a lot of trades Because the market hasn't really been moving a lot. So when the market's not moving it's hard to take trades, right? We don't want to just random randomly jump into trades but You know every trade that we took we won here one two three four five six So we went six for six in September And you can see our entries here. You can see the dates here. So on the first of September we entered at twenty five thousand five hundred It took profit at twenty six thousand then on the six five days later same entry twenty five thousand five hundred So again, just small moves right to profit at twenty five at twenty six thousand then again five days later on the 11th We we entered at twenty five thousand three hundred and this time we wrote it this one was a big one We wrote it all the way to twenty six thousand five hundred So that was a big trade here for four hundred and seventy four dollars profit Hit all it was a forty seven percent profit trade with ten X leverage Then on the 20th, we took a short position at twenty seven thousand five fifty all the way down to twenty six thousand for five hundred and sixty two dollars profit fifty six percent profit with ten X leverage and On the twenty fifth five days later again took a long once again switched over to a long twenty six thousand two hundred up to twenty six thousand seven fifty and Then another long on the twenty seven at twenty six two hundred twenty seven thousand. So This month we started off a little a little slow. We took a loss here. That was our first loss in two months And the crazy part was that on this trade after I signaled the trade and we took the trade I did a a my Monday market report a deep analysis on on the market And I came to realize that you know, even though it was a good setup It was the setup that I like to take it wasn't a good spot for it after doing the report So what we should have done here was just close the trade at break even and flipped our trade into a short and we would have won that Because I even set it in the discord But you know, we kept it open we're like, you know what let's just see what happens And of course it ended up being a loss That was a great lesson though. And then after that at twenty eight thousand and next two times we stuck with our reports We shorted at that twenty eight thousand dollar level. We won both of those trades For small profits. So so so far this month two for two for one Two wins one loss So I guess two for three um, if if we look at a at the summary we can see that we've taken a total of 76 trades here and this is in twenty twenty three With a total profit loss of ten thousand three hundred and thirty nine dollars This is based on a starting capital of ten thousand dollars. I just make I just use that to keep it as simple as possible The total profit loss were up a hundred and three point four percent on the year fifty winning trades twenty three losing trades And we have a win rate of sixty five point seven nine percent Our average win is around three hundred dollars average losses around two hundred dollars So which gives us a risk reward of about one point four to six So we've definitely had had a pretty good year even though it's been a really slow year We've had a decent year overall on average. We were hitting our first take profit around sixty eight percent of time We hit two of our take profits at almost fifty percent of time and then our third one We hit it only thirty percent of the time But that third one is usually a three so a one-to-three risk reward So we're getting a really good risk reward When we do hit that TP three And overall we're up over a hundred percent on the year so Very excited for that very happy about that I don't know why here it says we've taken seventy six trades Here we're at seventy three is I'm about to take a look at that to see why That's happening, but oh I think because because of these here if I take these off. Let's see. Let's take that off Didn't seem to do anything Yeah, I'm not to see why that's showing that but but overall We're able to break over that hundred percent barrier And and and we've had we've had a we've had a pretty good. We've had a pretty good year so if you guys are interested in Intaking any of this trades and kind of following your here we go I fixed it and following the trades that that we're setting up here, you know every single day In our trade room, you can check out the discord link is in the description below of this live stream of this video If not, you could just tune into these live streams where I give these breakdowns And I really I give you guys my plan on how it is and I'm playing it now The thing is that over the course of the week plans change and you have to reevaluate and you know things change You know depending what's going on in the market, so That's what we do in the discord We kind of talk it out and and I I help out with whatever questions you have you might have Whatever set ups and stuff like that and I give up I give I show basically the exact trades that I'm taking so in the exact time So that's pretty much it guys. I appreciate you guys. Let me see. I'm gonna take a look to see Usually we do a Q&A here at the end of this Let me see if we have any questions here So let me let me pull up I asked on Instagram as well Hmm somebody asked is it still good to invest in Bitcoin right now? Once again, I still think that we're at the bottom of where Bitcoin's price is probably gonna be In the next two years, right? I think from here Even though we could pull back to there is a scenario where we pull back to like 23,000 dollars I think worst case scenario $20,000 even though I don't think that will go down to $20,000. It is a scenario But I think the best thing you could do right now is be buying weekly right now at least put a little bit of money into it every single week dollar cost average and and In the next year or two that that is gonna be that's gonna be up because Bitcoin's price is definitely gonna be going up over the next two years in my opinion Let's see any other questions Somebody asked does Bitcoin drop more because of war? And that's a great question So I only have history that I remember from while I've been in Bitcoin of The Ukraine war right when that happens and we saw that during the Ukraine war Bitcoin's price did drop and The reason why it's usually war means uncertainty, right? There's there could it could it brings uncertainty into people's lives Especially of course people that are living in the areas of war so When things like that happen When there's uncertainty people tend to One want to have cash, right? So They tend to want to want to have cash Because in the worst-case scenario, right? What good is it gonna be having your money invested into the stock market or into? Crypto or whatever it is If it ends up being no good because of a war right in the war You can't pay if think if think if everything went where to go down because of a war. There's no electricity or whatever Your investments are no good, right? You need a cold hard cash So because of so that's why during wars does an uncertainty people like to go to cash and gold basically so So yeah, definitely during wars There there always is potential for not only Bitcoin, but overall all markets to to for prices to drop and Then the last question that I have here is do you think crypto will crash one last time before halving now? I wouldn't say that it would crash Per se, but a pullback is definitely in the cards We just looked at at the liquidity levels right now We saw that there's a lot of liquidity to the downside At 20 sitting at twenty six twenty five thousand dollars So there is a potential for Bitcoin's price to drop back down to those levels I'll pull back. I wouldn't call it a crash per se, right? I think a crash would be more if Bitcoin's price dropped from where we are right now to like 20,000 or below, right? I don't think that happens There is a low probability of it happening so that means that it could still happen But I'm not thinking that that's gonna happen I'm thinking I'll pull back. We could potentially see you know, twenty six twenty seven twenty six twenty five thousand dollars again And I think that's it guys. That's all the questions that I have here Appreciate you guys tuning in if you guys missed any of it. You guys can just watch the replay Or I'll be putting it up. I'll be putting it up on Spotify Or wherever you listen to your podcast tomorrow So that's it for us guys. Thank you guys so much for tuning in I'll see you guys on the next one next week and as always peace and love