 For the first time in a long time, the NASCAR Cup series is heading to a short flat track this weekend. And for me, when I run my model for each race, the tracks at which it tends to perform best are the short flat track. So, you know, Hampshire, Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, those tend to be the spots where my numbers work the best. So I'm always excited for these races, but we haven't had one since April. So it's a question of, will it still be good knowing that we haven't been to a track like this in quite some time? It's possible teams have improved since then, et cetera, et cetera. And I'm excited to see how things play out for this week. And I think we've got a pretty good read on who will compete. So we'll break things down and get you set for DFS in New Hampshire. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network in Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com. Here to preview this week's Fox Woods Resort Casino 301 in New Hampshire. Lock is set for 3 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. And the starting order has been set. So as we go through the podcast for today, you can fill out lineups as we go and get those things set in advance of Sunday's race. But first, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, we've got PGA podcasts each week. Also, UFC with Austin Swain. That should be up tomorrow morning. So make sure you check that out by subscribing to the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear or if you win some money, leave us a rating and review as well. Hey soccer fans, this season, FanDuel and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan Soccer Pick'em, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you have to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You will earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDuel and enter the Captain Morgan Soccer Pick'em today. Must be 21 plus to participate for more details. This is FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply. And don't forget to make game day more delicious and sub in the Captain. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for this week in New Hampshire. And it's a very different track from Atlanta because Atlanta is high banked. It's fast. It's a 550 package whereas New Hampshire is slower. It is flat and it's the 750 package. So very different tracks. But the overall strategy for this race is going to feel very similar for DFS. And that's because the race length is similar. There are 260 laps. There were 260 laps last week. There are 301 this week, which leaves us 30.1 FanDuel points for lap leaders. And that is more than enough for us to feel good using drivers up front if we think they can lead laps. And I think that we do need to prioritize getting laps led into our liners. We talked last week about getting in three drivers with the ability to lead laps and maybe win. And I think the same is in play again for this week. Our most similar race this year was at Phoenix back in March. And that perfect lineup had three drivers with salaries of $10,000 or higher. Only two of those guys actually left laps. Basically what we're doing is we're giving ourselves more darts to throw at the board. If we roster three drivers who could potentially lead laps, we're giving ourselves more chances to correctly identify the drivers who control the race. And for me personally, I would love that extra dart. I know I'm going to get stuff wrong, but if I give myself more chances, then the odds that I accidentally stumble into being right are higher. So for me, the default build this week will be three drivers who I think can lead laps and squeeze out a top five finish at the end of the day as well. Similar to last week, we will be able to use the waves approach here. Of the eight most likely winners in my simulations, five of those drivers are starting 10th or lower. So five out of eight starting 10th or lower. And that means those drivers are not going to lead laps early on, but they can still win the race. That's why we want to use the waves approach. We use a wave one driver starting near the front who can lead laps early. Then we can use a place differential guy or a wave two driver deeper in the pack to lead laps late and push for a win. That waves approach worked out well last week, and I'm on board with it again this week, so that I'm not sacrificing those early laps led. It does work out sometimes where the guy who leads laps early, leads laps early has trouble and doesn't finish well. So it's not always like a must, but my default build will be, I have at least one driver up front in most of my lineups. I also do want to clarify that we don't have to go this route. Like I use the waves route when I want to utilize a driver starting deeper in the field. The most likely winner for me this week is Denny Hamlin. He's starting sixth. Second most likely winner is Martin Truex Jr. He's starting second. There's no waves element to that, and that's fine with me. I will use both guys in the same lineup. The waves approach is something to utilize if you want to use someone who will not lead laps early on. You have full leeway to use two guys at the front if you want, if you think that they will be the guys who contend for a win, and there are more than enough laps led for us to do that. In last year's race in New Hampshire, there were two lap leaders in the perfect lineup. They started second and fourth. In the Phoenix race earlier this year, the three drivers at $10,000 or higher all started inside the top 10. The waves approach is an option, but it's not a must. The lone must is making sure you have a guy up front who can lead laps and run out front and shoot for a win. As far as the value plays go, we do have some guys starting deeper in the pack who can get some place differential, but similar to Atlanta, we're going to have to be okay with lower salary drivers starting in the front half of the field because of the top 20 drivers in projected average running position for me, only three will start lower than 18th. Those guys are Ross Chastain in 20th, Eric Almarola 22nd, and Ricky Santos Jr. in 29th, but none of those guys ranks higher than 14th in projected average running position for my model. Your choices are slim, and the finishing upside there is okay for those guys. If you want good finishing points, which you do because you get points for that, they will likely need to come for the most part from drivers at the front of the field. We'll talk about some exceptions that later on some guys who can get you some place differential, but this is not going to be a race where we lean heavily on place differential. We want to get lambsled upside from our studs and good finishing upside from our values, which is naturally going to push us towards the front with some exceptions here for this race. As far as which races to emphasize when trying to decide which drivers to use, New Hampshire is a short flat track, as mentioned. That is the fourth race this year on a short flat track. The other three were Phoenix, Martin'sville, and Richmond. Those are the tracks I will be leaning on most heavily to decide who will be fast. After that, it's just overall performance in the 750 horsepower package that adds in Nashville, Dover, and Darlington. Maybe Bristol Dirt Race if you want to in there, but it hasn't correlated as well to how drivers have run elsewhere. So to me, first of all, I'm emphasizing Phoenix, Richmond, and Martin'sville in that order, and then I will go Nashville, Dover, and Darlington after that. So to recap before this week, you need at least two lap leaders in every single lineup, and I want three for mine to try to get a third crack at a potential lap leader for this race. You can use the Waves approach, but basically just ensure you get one driver at the front who can lead laps early on. Then you have flexibility with where your second driver is starting. So basically using the Waves approach gives you flexibility with the second guy. If you're in the sixth, cool, if they're starting 16th, also cool, totally fine. For value plays, you will have to have some drivers close to the front. There are some place differential options, but we have to be comfortable using guys closer to the front once again at this week. And then finally, emphasize the short flat tracks from looking for high quality plays, but after that, emphasize the 750 package overall on the ovals for the secondary races for this week. So the question is, which drivers best fit what we're looking for for this week? Let's do that now by checking out the tier by tier breakdown based on the salaries over at FanDuel.com. The elite tier this week is Kyle Larson at $14,000 through Chase Elliott at $12,000. And it's really hard for me not to be drawn towards Joe Gibbs racing this week. Primarily that's Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin. Kyle Bush is also in this tier, but he has been better in the 550 package than the 750. Truex is starting second. Hamlin is in sixth. They have been two of the three best cars in the 750 horsepower package this year. You can argue the two best, but I think just two of the three. The two of the top three guys for sure. Truex has actually won three of the six non-dirt oval races in this package. Two of the three were on short flat tracks. He also led 100 plus laps in two of the races he did not win in this package. He did that in Bristol and I believe in Richmond, the other one where he led a bunch of laps but did not win. So I think that we need to have Truex number one in this tier. Hamlin is two. His average running positions on the short flat tracks have been fourth, second, and second. He finished on the podium in all three races. Plus he was awesome in New Hampshire last year. He's a three-time winner here. My win simulations do have Hamlin as a more likely winner, but Truex is starting second, which means he has better access to laps led. So for DFS, I will go Truex one, Hamlin two. I wouldn't write off Kyle Larson. I know he has not been as good on the short flat tracks, but he had plenty of speed in Phoenix. He just had to work his way through the field a couple of times there. So to me, it's Truex one, Hamlin two, Larson three, Kyle Busch four, Chase Elliott five in this upper tier on FanDuel for this week. The second tier is Brad Keselowski at $11,500 to Ryan Blaney at 10.5. And I mentioned before that Truex and Hamlin have been two of the three best cars in this package this year. The third guy is Joey Logano. He ranks second behind Hamlin in aggregate average running position in the 750 horsepower package on non-dirt ovals. And second on the short flat tracks also did win in Bristol in this package, despite it being dirt. The short flat tracks specifically have been awesome for Logano, not just this year, but also last year. He had a top three average running position in both Phoenix and Richmond. He led 140 laps in Phoenix, which is awesome. He is a former New Hampshire winner. It was I think in 2014. So quite a long time ago, but he finished fourth year last year. He had a sixth place average running position. So that's good. I think Logano is a tremendous under salary potential lap leader at $10,800. And I would say for me, I want one guy in the upper tier and then Logano as my second stud for a cash game, given that he does have some plays differential and can lead laps. So Logano, pretty much a cash game lock for me on Sunday. Kevin Harvick is starting 12th and he is $11,300. I cannot tell you the last time I was excited to use Kevin Harvick. And I might not use the word excited here, but I'm open to it, which is a deviation from me. He ranks third in my models, projected average running position. He ranks fifth in my win simulations at 9%. And he has been much more lively in the 750 horsepower package than he has been elsewhere. He has led just 10 laps in this package and his best finishes fifth. I'm not going to go too crazy here, but I am open. I would say I am as open to Harvick this week as I've been pretty much the entire year. So this tier to me is ranked Logano 1. I will go William Byron 2 because he's starting 16th and he's been good overall in this package. I will go Harvick 3rd, Blaney 4th and Brad Keselowski 5th. He's been slipping recently and now obviously it's been confirmed he'll be leaving Penske at the end of the year. So I'm okay being a bit lower on Keselowski in the narrative, but also because he's not been good in this package, so Blaney and Harvick above him as well. The mid-range is Alex Bowman at $10,000 through Eric Almerola at $7,500. And I want to start here with a guy who will not get you placed differential, but I think that he's in the same mold as Kurt Busch and Tyler Redick last week where he can pay off even without placed differential. That guy is Christopher Bell. He's starting in ninth at $9,000 and I think he's going to push for a top five here. He was awesome on this track type and this track specifically in the Xfinity series, one here twice in New Hampshire, eight of his 16 wins in the Xfinity series came on short flat tracks. Plus he has three top tens in three similar races this year. He was fourth in Richmond. I want to be overweight on Christopher Bell in tournaments this week. I will include him as a third stud at times, but also like he is just a high quality play in general if I wind up in this so even if I'm not leaning on belt lead laps, I still think that the finishing upside frame is good enough to still be really aggressive with him for this week. Again, similar to Kurt Busch and Redick from last week. The big place differential guy in this tier is Eric Almerola. He is starting back in 22nd. He is $7,500. He has tremendous track history here and it's not just when he's been with Stuart Haas racing. He actually had a couple of top six finishes here when he was in terrible equipment with Richard Petty Motorsports. He has had a top nine average running position in all three races here with Stuart Haas racing and plus he's been good on similar tracks even this year when SHR has been bad. He finished sixth in Richmond. He came through the pack a couple of times in Phoenix. He had a ton of speed in Nashville, which is another flat track. So I am very in on Almerola here. I would say I mentioned Legano is a cash game play. Almerola might be the second guy go to there outside of the studs. I think among the value plays, Almerola is the primary cash game option for this week. I'm going to rank this tier Almerola 1, Christopher Bell 2, Matt DiBenedetto 3, Alex Bowman 4, Kurt Busch 5 and Tyler Redick 6. I think that you can consider Redick for sure, but the short flat tracks definitely not his forte as much as they are for Bell. So that's why he winds up being lower on my list. The value tier is Austin Dillon at $7,300, Ricky Jenos Jr. at $6,000. I do think we can get some place differential at a Ricky Jenos Jr. this week. He is starting back in 29th at $6,000. He has been good in this package. He has the best aggregate average running position out of any owner of the salary lower than $7,300. He finished top 15 in Phoenix and Martinsville. He was 17 in Richmond. He's not terrible in New Hampshire. A couple of top 10s here. He has also been the top 15 in three of the past five races. I'm in. You do have to put a cap on your exposure due to his massive, massive, massive volatility, but I do want to be there and I think that's Stenhouse a high quality play for this week as much as that does make me very nervous for sure. Ross Juste is pretty fun at $7,000 starting back in 20th. His performance in the 750 package has been awesome recently. He has had a top 16 average running position in four straight races and one of those was in Richmond. He had decent speed on flat tracks in the Xfinity series. Really good in Nashville, finished runner up there. So, Chastain has some Stenhouse in him where he's pretty volatile because he is very aggressive, but he has upside to compensate there. So, both those guys, to me, worthy of looks this week. I'm going to rank Chastain one in this tier. I'll go with Stenhouse two. I just think that the upside in Chastain is better. So, I'll go with Chastain one. Stenhouse two. Austin Dillon three, even though he's starting 13th he's been pretty good in this package still. I am lower on Chris Buscher than usual this week because it seems like Roush Fenway racing has been prioritizing the 550 package more than the 750 package. They are trying to zag while everyone else zigs. So, I think that I'm okay with being lower on Buscher than usual this week based on the emphasis they are seemingly not putting on this track type. The punty tier is Chase Briscoe at $5,800 on down and I do think we have guys we can turn to here. One of them is Daniel Suarez. He is starting 31st at $5,700. He does have three top tens in this package but they all came on either dirt or concrete. On the short flat tracks Suarez is finished outside the top 15 each time. I think Suarez will get a lot of buzz. I've seen his salary on a different site. It is very high which means they expect to be very popular. It's a different scoring system but like that's going to translate to some popularity here for sure. Stenhouse is $300 more expensive also starting in the back and I might prefer Stenhouse straight up and I think I'll be pretty alone in that. I could be wrong but I feel like I'm going to wind up being underweight on Suarez in tournaments. I think he's a solid play but I think that I do want to be over on Stenhouse under on Suarez based on the way things shake out for this week. I said this before where I've been like okay I think I'll wind up being underweight on this guy and then just no one uses him for some reason so maybe I'll wind up being over on Suarez not intentionally going under but I think that my natural optimal exposure levels on Suarez will be lower than a lot of other people so to me it's Stenhouse over Suarez among the lower salary guys starting super far back. Among the punting options the guy with the best aggregate average running position on the non-dirt ovals using 750 package is actually Bubba Wallace he's starting 18th at $5300 he had a really fast car in Phoenix he was running top 10 some strategy got in the way of that good run it seems like the team has been making strides recently so I find him pretty interesting I prefer Stenhouse and Suarez for the place differential but I will have exposure to Bubba Wallace this week. This tier to me is ranked Suarez 1, Bubba 2 Eric Jones 3 has been pretty good in this package too good quality driver he's Briscoe 4 I'm also down to have some Ryan Priest shares because he has a bunch of familiarity on this track good speed here last year starting 25th he's $4000 I will have a non-zero number of Ryan Priest lineups for Sunday because I think that he can be pretty solid here once again. So let's finish up with the win picks and a little bit of pressure because we've been on a heater here for the lower salary guys we got wins out of lower salary plays we got drugs Bowman and Pocono, Kurt Busch and Atlanta. I had Christopher Bell in Road America finish second there so some pressure for this race for the lower salary guy below $10,000 I will go Bell once again I think he has had too much speed in this package and on this track type to ignore him so among the lower salary guys give me Bell then I will stick with my sins and go Denny Hamlin among the higher salary guys to win this week there's no more betting value in Hamlin at 9-1 on Fandall he is plus 450 I believe as of this morning so hopefully he got in before because there is no more value there but hey win picks I can pick whoever I want so we'll go Hamlin and Bell for this week. That is all that we have here for the heat check fantasy podcast for this Foxwood's resort casino 301 should be a fun one again numbers tend to be pretty predictive on this track type so excited to see how that cranks out but also I'm just excited to see maybe non-hendrick dominance continuing once again for this week we'll see how that cranks out on Sunday once again make sure you subscribe to the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts if you have questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week enjoy the race enjoy the two week break to the Olympics we'll see you once again I believe for Watkins Glen coming up actually I'm out that week we'll figure it out anyway we'll figure out Watkins Glen but either way I'll talk to you again in the very near future enjoy the break enjoy Sunday go win some money this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire