 Is Keir Starmer's leadership about to end? Now this is a question more and more people are asking, seeing as it's becoming almost a consensus, the guy isn't particularly good at his job. And as we've discussed on this show more than a few times, he's made a few too many enemies. Now, obviously, this is all in the context of these disastrous by-elections for the Labour Party. There's going to be, we don't know if it's going to be disastrous yet, but quite likely it looks set to be in badly and spend next week. Now, of course, if he were to go, this would be an extraordinary development in British politics. Labour leaders normally last a little while. It's not a party known to put the knife in and take leaders out if they don't think they're winners. They gave it a go with Corbyn. They failed. Will they have more luck this time around? I'll be discussing that with Ash Sarkar. How are you doing? I'm good. Although I took a nap this afternoon and I woke up and it was like October. Like it's freezing and raining and I'm not happy. It's a disgrace, an absolute disgrace, but there's not much we can say or do about it. So we're going to stick to those things that we have a little bit of agency over, or at least some people do. We will also be talking about whether or not double-vaxxed people should get more freedoms, that's especially with reference to self-isolation and travel. And we've got a couple more Labour stories to boot. I'm not going to give those away just yet, but definitely worth waiting for. Now, as ever, let us know your thoughts on tonight's show and tonight's topics by tweeting on the hashtag TiskeySour and if you're new, hit that subscribe button. First story. The bad news keeps on coming for Keir Starmer in the Cheshuman Amisham by-election. The party secured only 622 votes. That's the worst tally for either of the two major parties since 1918, really phenomenal statistic. Now, since then, the first poll has been released for the Batley and Spen by-election. Now, that suggests Labour is set to lose. Again, this time they'll be losing the seat. Now, the results from this poll are that the Conservatives are on 47%, which would be 11 points higher than they achieved in 2019. And Labour would be on 41%, which would be down to from that election. George Galloway is on 6% and the Lib Dems on 3%. Now, were that to happen, were Labour to lose the Batley and Spen by-election? It would be the first time the governing party had gained seats in two separate by-elections since in the same parliament, sorry, since at least 1950. Now, that's as far back as Wikipedia goes. I've been asking on Twitter and apparently it does go back a fair bit further than that. This is very, very unusual for governing parties to lose by-elections for them to lose two in the same parliament, two in the same year. Sorry, the governing parties to win two in the same parliament, two in the same year is almost unheard of. Now, this grim sequence of events likely explains why this weekend we witnessed a series of changes in Stammer's top team. Both the director of communications, Ben Nunn and his deputy have resigned. And Stammer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, has been moved into a different role. So it's clearly trouble at the top of the team. They recognise that something needs to change. Now, to me, this looks, these are very small changes around the edges. Shuffling chairs on the Titanic is the image it gives me. We're also seeing headlines like this at the moment. So Adam Biancov in Business Insider this morning asked, is Kier Stammer's time as Labour leader about to come to an early end? Now, that article included quotes from unnamed MPs from different wings of the Labour Party. An MP from the left of the party told Biancov, I think with Batley and Spen so close, none of those interested in challenging Stammer want to risk being left open to the attack. They cost us the seat by coming out of the traps first. After Batley and Spen, that won't apply. They spoke to another MP who was critical of Stammer. They told the paper, you get the impression that Kier doesn't want the job anymore. It's possible the communications team's departures are a presage of that. Why carry on busting your balls when you know your boss has lost his mojo and is unlikely to be PM in the event of a leadership challenge? I'm not even sure Kier would contest it. Now, those are MPs from the left and an MP who is known to be critical of Stammer. There was a Stammer MP who spoke to the paper who was calling for unity. So they said, people should grow up and focus on building a winning coalition. Now, of course, that's not a particularly forthcoming defence of Kier Stammer, rather just a generic call for unity. Those MPs, of course, have all remained unnamed. I do want to look at a comment this morning from an MP who is speaking publicly. This was Emily Formbury speaking to Sky. Give him a chance. Let's see the MP. How long is the need? We need to get out of the pandemic and then he needs to have his chance, right? He needs to have his chance to show who he is and to show his metal. And what if your boss is in the by-election? It's a by-election we will move on. We will move on from that. He needs to be able to be given his chance and people need to hear him and meet him and know who he is and know that he is so much a better potential Prime Minister than the one that we have at the moment. That was very damning, in a sense. It was such faint praise. He would make a better Prime Minister than the current one. Now, that's very, very different from saying he'd be a good Prime Minister, just to say he's better than Boris Johnson. Now, as a Labour front-bencher, that's... You're holding the bar very, very low. If all you can say about the leader... And you're in the Shadow Cabinet, by the way. This isn't a back-bencher who's always hated Keir Starmer. This is someone who's in the Shadow Cabinet supposed to be speaking for the opposition and she's saying, well, he'd be a better Prime Minister than Boris Johnson. Now, Ash, the reason we're talking about the positions of MPs... Well, MPs from different wings of the party think about Keir Starmer is because for there to be a challenge to his leadership, the only people who have control over that would be the PLP, the Parliamentary Labour Party. If he doesn't want to resign, which I think is unlikely to resign because the right want to keep him in post until they can change a few more rules, then you'll need 40 MPs to support a challenger. So it really matters whether or not there is enough disquiet in the Parliamentary Labour Party. Do you think that if they lose badly they could see the kind of unstoppable momentum that could unseat Keir Starmer after only a year and a half? I mean, so I think that it's obvious that Keir Starmer would be a disastrous candidate to take into the next general election. I hear what Emily Thornberry is saying of while we've been in a pandemic, he's not had the opportunity to show who he is. But if you're not good in a crisis that is showing something of who you are as a politician. Secondly, we don't know that the pandemic won't continue to shape our politics for a few more years to come, perhaps going in and out of lockdowns or having to adjust border policies in response to what's going on elsewhere. It's not necessarily the case, although I hope it would be, that you get to Jaloon, that's a weird way of saying July, June 19th, and suddenly everything's fine. That's not nailed on. So I think that she knows that she's just trying to say something appropriately nice without going overboard and isolating herself if it is time for a coup. She's just doing the job that I think any shadow cabinet minister would do. So it would be disastrous, disastrous to put Keir Starmer in post until the next general election. However, you only really have leadership challenge mounted when there's some kind of plausible other candidate. Right now, you've got Andy Burnham who looks somewhat prime ministerial and compelling and charismatic, great name recognition. You've got Angela Rayner, of course, but she's also been doing her best to alienate her parties left recently with some kind of unforced errors regarding Jeremy Corbyn and so-called photo bombing. So in terms of who was the obvious candidate, well, there isn't necessarily one. And thirdly, you've got the question of, well, who would want to take Labour into the next general election? Because it's very rare that you've got a candidate putting themselves forward going, you know what, I am just going to be a kind of interim opposition leader until the next person comes along and they are a viable prime ministerial candidate. So I think that you've got all these other considerations which you might end up with the PLP saying, well, it's better to keep this hopeless guy in post than take his job now. Yeah, I think there are a lot of people probably thinking that. Let's get up one more set of responses from Batley and Spen. So this is from the same Salvation poll that we sort of started the segment with. They asked, constituents, in your view, which of the following political leaders do you trust the most on the following issues? So you've got Brexit, 57% of people say Boris Johnson only 17% say Keir Starmer and then the rest are obviously Neva or don't know. When it comes to COVID-19, 55%, trust Boris Johnson, 21% Keir Starmer with the economy, 55% Boris Johnson, only 21% Keir Starmer and even with the NHS, 45% trust Boris Johnson and only 30% trust Keir Starmer. Now remember, this is in a seat that Labour held in the 2019 general election. So those are pretty poor results. And what people always say, look, Corbyn also polled terribly for much of the time that he was leader. Now, as we've talked about on previous shows, in fact, Keir Starmer and Jeremy Corbyn are actually polling almost exactly the same at the same period in time. What's different about Keir Starmer is that he hasn't been subject to any smear campaign, so it's quite difficult to see how when there's, you know, even reporting in the press there could be some turnaround because people are seeing the real Keir Starmer, I think, and they just don't really like what they see. It's not that they've been blinded by a smear campaign because where are the smears? I haven't seen them. You know, even Keir Starmer's people aren't saying, oh no, they've been distracted by all of these lies told about him. I can't think of any of the lies that have really been told about him. There was one article about the donkey farm, wasn't there? I don't think that's affecting everyone's attitudes in this particular poll. So it's difficult to see how he will turn it around. If anything as well, Ash, you know, as we saw Emily Formbury there saying, that oh, we can't expect people to have formed opinions about Keir Starmer because we've been in the middle of a crisis. Now, I would say in response to that, actually, isn't it precisely in a crisis where you would make up your mind about a potential leader? You know, because thinking about it, yeah, who do you want to be your leader? One of the main things you want them to be able to do is to be good in a crisis, is to have astute thoughts and sort of the capacity to make tough decisions in tough circumstances, not just sort of step back and make some abstract policy proposal. I mean, he hasn't done that either. But this idea that suddenly once COVID has gone, as you suggest it might never be gone, he's going to be able to speak to people and show people what he's about. I don't see it happening unless you think that maybe now he's got rid of his director of communications, there could be some sort of turnaround incoming. Labour loves a kind of symbolic sacrifice to prove that they're taking issue seriously while ultimately preserving the arrangement of leadership. So I'm not sure how much the departures of Ben Nunn and Morgan McSweeney are going to do for changing the fundamental problems with the leadership because it's not so much one of communication. Of course, the communication has been dire. It is that void at the heart of the project, no ideas, no vision, and it's politics by aesthetics, look sensible, look prime ministerial, i.e. wear a suit that's not rumpled, and then hope that people are into it. And that's just not where politics is at the moment. And Michael, I'm not just saying this because I'm blowing smoke up your arse and I like coming on this show, but you have been a more effective leader of the opposition over the course of the pandemic than Keir Starmer has. When it comes to holding the government to account, putting out the points that really need to be said and developing a critical narrative, that's the kind of work you've been doing. Whereas what is it that Keir Starmer's been saying? One, we will support the government. So doing this whole weird government of national unity by any other name's spiel didn't really do that much for him. Two, talking about the government's vaccine bounce. And again, giving all the credit to Boris Johnson not so much to the NHS and doing the Tories comms work for them knowing they've really played a blinder with this vaccine. And then three, he's been going around the country, as I've said before, just talking about how shit he and his party is. And I think we were talking about it earlier this morning in our editorial meeting, Michael. You said people like a winner or they like a trier. And Keir Starmer comes across as neither. He looks like somebody who cannot decide whether he is playing a head of government in an Aaron Sorkin drama. Or his job is to go around telling everybody how bad the party he stands for is. He's torn between these two things. Neither of them are anything to vote for. I mean, it's a bit like if I started Tiskey Sour every day by saying, look, guys, I apologize. I've got a bit of a boring hour lined up for you. We've been trying to change the format because it's not really working. I've been asking people for advice. Obviously, my co-hosts, they're fine. But I mean, what are you going to do? If I was you, I'd probably watch GB News. If I said that at the start of every show, I wouldn't be surprised if I only had 10 people watching half an hour in. Now, that is Keir Starmer's style of leadership with the Labour Party. So it's not much of a surprise. You don't need a comms director to tell you that's a bad idea. But you look at the way in which they're going into battling and spend, which I know we're going to talk about in more detail. Do they look like they're going into that by election trying to win it, trying to hold on to that seat? Did they go into Hartlepool with the attitude of a party that really could win it? No, they're going into it and making their excuses early. And it is so unattractive. The votes haven't even been cast yet and you're already telling me why I didn't vote for you. I suppose actually the thing I didn't add, if I was like Keir Starmer, I would say, did you enjoy Tiske Sauer last year? You're probably racist. So we're looking for new viewers this year. So maybe you could send this to someone who's less racist and they might enjoy this really boring show which has no self-confidence and doesn't really have a plan or a structure. I'm not going to go down that route because I want this show to be a success. If you do too, please do like the video. We have over 2,000 of you watching tonight and I'm going to shut up about how shit the show is to take Keir Starmer because I'm worried that some of you will take it seriously in turn. So we're going to go straight to our next story before I'm just going to get a super chat. Anne Haepel with the tenor says, really look forward to your show. Thank you so much. A very lovely comment and we do appreciate the donation. A big problem for Labour in the upcoming Batley and Spen by-election is that many Muslims in the constituency think Keir Starmer has taken their votes for granted. Now, we know this from interviews on the ground, some of which we'll show you in one moment. We also know this from national polling of Muslims. Now, the following shows the attitudes of British Muslims towards Starmer and Labour. This is a poll done by Survation. Now, what you can see here is that while 61% of Muslims polled had a favourable attitude towards the Labour Party, so that's very popular among Muslims, the Labour Party. Keir Starmer is quite the opposite. So 61% of people have a favourable, 61% of Muslim voters, sorry, have a favourable attitude towards the Labour Party. Only 22% of Muslim voters have a favourable attitude towards Keir Starmer. Now, when we go to unfavourable attitudes, 19% of Muslims have an unfavourable attitude towards the Labour Party. That goes up to 29% for Keir Starmer. So this isn't just a case of Labour being famous and Keir Starmer still being unknown. No, there's actually quite a lot of active hostility to Keir Starmer. More than half of people know who he is and, well, more than half of Muslim voters so we know who he is and they don't seem to like what they see. Now, as I mentioned at the start, this negativity has also been visible to journalists interviewing Muslim constituents on the ground. These clips were featured in Owen Jones' Minidoc from Batley and Spen. White took the leader up till the Prime Minister's question last week to actually mention Palestine and do things. People are not happy. To get them changed in the next two weeks, it's going to be tough. Keir Starmer, I emailed him about this Palestine and never got an email back. And he's not good for the public. He's not good for us. He doesn't support... He doesn't hear our voices. We want Mr Keir Starmer hosted out because he's not a good politician. Do you think Keir Starmer will fall? That will be the end of his leadership. Definitely. That's foregone conclusion. He has to go. Just quickly, who would you like to take over? If Keir Starmer goes, who? Burnham. So, that voter wanted Burnham to replace Keir Starmer. Obviously, Andy Burnham is not going to be on the ballot paper in Batley and Spen. And many people who seem to want to punish Keir Starmer are turning to George Galloway. We have got a little clip of an interview with Owen Jones and him. Let's take a look at that. The very first thing I saw when I came into Batley for this campaign was this flag. It's why this cafe is a bit of a favourite of ours. Palestine is hegemonic in at least a quarter of the constituency. And in a by-election, a quarter is a lot of people. And they're outraged by Labour's dramatic switch. I think there's a settled will here that Keir Starmer has to be punished for the turn away from Palestine that is made. Now, as Owen Jones makes clear in the documentary, there are many, many problems with George Galloway. He voted Conservative in the past election in Scotland. He's said some very obnoxious things. He's an opportunist, essentially. But there are many people in Batley and Spen who are looking to vote for him, including former Labour voters, Labour members and even former Labour councillors. And from the interviews that Owen did, and I've also spoke to Aaron Bostani, who's been in the constituency, he's saying, this is mainly because they want to punish Keir Starmer. I think the agency we have in this by-election is we can cause a defeat for Labour, which will lead to ultimately the weakening of Keir Starmer, because Keir Starmer has been very weak on the issues we care about. In particular, Palestine also cashmere coming up quite a lot. Now, you might think that in response to this kind of disquiet among Muslim voters and a disquiet which is likely going to cost them a seat, the Labour Party might be trying to love bomb Muslim voters to say, sorry, we don't take you for granted. We're really sorry if you've got that impression. Actually, if you read our policies on Palestine, they're not terrible. I think they could be better, let's be honest, but they're not terrible. They might be trying to reassure people that know that they really do care and that their positions are ones which Muslims can vote for with pride. That's not what they're doing. They've gone down another route, apparently saying that Muslims don't vote for Labour because they're racist. Dan Hodges, one of Britain's most bone-headed columnists, wrote a piece in the mail on Sunday to this effect. It was headlined, who's spreading the poison that could put the final nail in Kierstahmer's coffin? Hodges suggests, the poison that would put the final nail in Kierstahmer's coffin, this article suggests, is not Palestine cashmere, I mean, I've obviously never talked about those as poison, but rather that Kierstahmer has been too tough on anti-Semitism. Now, Dan Hodges finds someone who will furnish this argument, he gets a quote from a senior Labour official, and they say, we're hemorrhaging votes among Muslim voters, and the reason for that is what Kier has been doing on anti-Semitism. Nobody really wants to talk about it, but that's the main factor. He challenged Corbyn on it, and there's been a backlash among certain sections of the community. So there you see, you've got all of these interviews of people saying, this guy was not strong enough on Palestine, he was not granted, and a senior Labour official tells Dan Hodges, one of the most divisive columnists in the country, the problem is that Muslims don't like to see a party that's been tough on anti-Semitism. I mean, the implication there is essentially that Muslim voters are anti-Semitic, they're not voting for the Labour Party because they're racist. Ash, I mean, we've had conversations about these attitudes before, but I haven't seen it down on paper so explicitly as that quote in Dan Hodges' column on the weekend. I think that was always part of the implicit criticism of Corbyn, that his perceived proximity to Muslims and his alleged anti-Semitism were one and the same, and so you could use one to prove the existence of the other. And what that is a product of is of course a very Islamophobic perspective, a deeply racist way of looking at the Muslim community and looking at the importance of the issue of Palestine to the Muslim community in this country and saying that is in itself anti-Semitic. So it is an ideological position which pre-exists Jeremy Corbyn and it's something which coalesced around him. Now, of course it was bound to have a second life after Corbyn's expulsion from the PLP and so you have this strange vault fast where first it's anti-Semitic if you want to vote Labour, to now it's anti-Semitic if you don't want to vote Labour. And what both of these things are predicated on really is the delegitimisation of Muslims having a voice or a champion or an advocate in national politics. And I think that while of course this is deeply racist what I would be wary of is saying too much the other way which is anti-Semitism has nothing to do with Muslims turning away from Starmer. Now, let me be very, very clear. This is not me saying oh and it's because Muslims hold anti-Semitic points of view. I think what it is to do with is the fact that if you're a Muslim and you've seen how the anti-Semitism crisis played out which is a minority community suddenly having a very powerful voice within the national media their concerns are seen to be taken very seriously and ultimately that's got the power to reshape politics in a way which had the effect of marginalising and excluding the left you'll have Muslims going well hang on why can't our community's concerns be like that? Why can't we be taken seriously? And so you do that not by unquestioning loyalty but by exodus, by leaving by saying we can take our votes elsewhere thank you very much and that was something which I've been saying for months when it comes to Kier Starmer and bane voters overall which is the point of view of Labour has been to either marginalise or to distance or to act quite frankly embarrassed of the support that it has from Black and Asian minority ethnic voters and the gamble there is the same one which they used to have when it came to post-industrial towns in the North and the Midlands which is well where else do they have to go? What the problem is is that you'll have some canny operators like Galloway saying well here is the place you can go and of course people can always just stay at home this is a crisis which emerges from Kier Starmer's strategy it's an unforced error and it comes from I think this very insulting view that he and his leadership have of bane voters I mean it does really show I suppose the risks of I mean weaponising issues about racism in such a cynical way as they were in the Labour Party over the last five years I mean if you remember all the people who said how dare you talk about anti-Semitism and other forms of racism like how was that going to make people who were victims of other forms of racism feel if you say even mentioning the systemic abuse you face that is itself like an offensive thing to do how dare you mention Islamophobia if you're told for five years that when you mention issues that affect you you're guilty of what aboutism then how are you supposed to feel included and like you have any respect or that you are respected by the party that you are supposed to vote for it just seems like I think this was always bound to happen the other thing that I mean I've seen in sort of videos from the constituency is people talking about Zionism now Kier Starmer's a Zionist or whatever now I don't always think that Zionist is the most helpful sort of label to throw about because different people mean different things by whatever but I do think that for all the leadership candidates to say in that JLM Hustings we are Zionists, we support Zionism unconditionally that was obviously going to have some consequences given while Zionism for some people means safety for Jews for other people it means a dispossession of Palestinians so if you just say without any qualification I'm a Zionist then obviously people are going to see you as taking one side in a conflict and an occupation and they're going to respond badly to that because everyone can see what you say in every debate so while they were saying that to reassure that JLM meeting you've got all of these people who have solidarity with Palestine who are seeing all of these people bending over backwards to make out that they're more Zionist than the person next to them and of course they're going to take that as a sign that you don't care or respect about the concerns that I have and it's why they probably should have come up with a more sensitive answer to that question then all to just say no of course we're Zionists everyone has to be a Zionist because for many people or for Palestinians that means something very differently to what it means to Robert Peston who was conducting that interview and for many voters in Britain it will mean something very different to what it means to Robert Peston who was conducting that interview I want to go very quickly to the evidence that is put forward by Dan Hodges now I say evidence I should put it in scare quotes really so his evidence that is anti-Semitism which is driving this exodus from the Labour Party is the following Galloway campaign staffers also claim members of the Muslim community have been expressing concern to them over the fact Stammer's wife is Jewish and their children are being raised in the Jewish faith though again they are unable to say who is circulating this information now of course if any voter is expressing concerns that someone's wife is Jewish and that their children that would be awful that would be anti-Semitic and terrible that shouldn't be pandered to that should be opposed dismissed and if those people don't vote for Labour so be it this does seem like quite a flimsy basis for the argument though for a start why would a Galloway campaign staffer say that I mean it would be quite a bizarre thing for them to say because it would make their campaign look worse the other reason it's potentially not particularly persuasive is Labour very recently had a Jewish leader Ed Miliband was Jewish and Butler and Spen comfortably returned a Labour MP in 2015 so I think the idea that this is because Stammer is married to a Jewish person I don't find it particularly convincing now Ash I don't know what you make of this obviously you know we're not in a position to dispute what Dan Hodges was told by a Galloway campaign staffer because it's unnamed it's very difficult to check but it just doesn't ring particularly true to me from the interviews I've seen in the constituency from what I've heard from people who were talking to lots of people in the constituency and as I say the fact that Ed Miliband did not have this problem in 2015 that you know that Dan Hodges is saying something here that stacks up well look when it comes to people who believe cranky conspiracy theories they often have no problem sharing them on camera and you look at the pieces which have been done in Batleon Spen from Owen Jones' documentary to the piece which I know that Aaron Bassani is coming out with very soon that's not what people are saying they're talking about Palestine, they're talking about Kashmir and they're talking about local issues they're talking about the fact that Batleon Spen has ensured some pretty horrific cuts that it's seen that it's magistrates court shut down it's police station shut down and all of this is under a Labour council but the reason why this story is being told in this way has its basis in racism because when you see white voters deserting Labour whether they're supporters of Brexit or any other reason they're not told while you're racist you can go even if maybe one of the reasons in which they're explicitly saying I can't vote Labour anymore is to do with something like immigration you don't get this narrative in the press of well you can go you're a racist bye bye you can go you're a Muslim you're also explicitly telling you something different who are saying that it's on matters of foreign policy or local public service provision still you've got this ability to monster them through the lens of antisemitism and people will believe it because of those pre-existing you know the racialized lens which affects Muslims in this country and so I just think that it's journalism from Dan Hodges if you're going to make an allegation which is that serious you must be able to source it you must be able to cite it and you must be able to prove it because the impact that it's having is bigger than any one by election it has an impact on the entirety of the Muslim community in this country who has their voice in politics being delegitimized by a columnist in the national newspaper I think that's so important to say that the consequences of this article are really serious and for you being Dan Hodges to write this article which is so divisive which is so inflammatory on the basis of one Galloway staffer told me something I'm not going to name them and also they didn't provide me any evidence I mean it's disgusting really it's horrible and for there to have been a senior labor source who then I suppose backed up that article it's shocking now I should say there were some people within the Labour Party who condemned that Annalisa Dodds did as did Angela Rayner but I think there are many people in the country who think that on issues like this Labour have been incredibly non-committal and so it's not particularly surprising that you have senior staffers who think it's acceptable to say things like this to Dan Hodges to a mail on Sunday journalist come on let's go to a couple of tweets cute oid tweets on hashtag tiskey sour winning elections is not Starmer Labour's priority ensuring the Labour rights control is absolutely I do agree with that although I do think that Keir Starmer might be getting bored of being quite bad at his job but I don't think anyone's going to let him resign because they're like you better stay here until we change the leadership rules we ran your campaign we got you here don't you dare resign and give the party back to Corbyn Easters that's what's going to be happening that's really why we need a challenger we need there to be 40 MPs who are willing to say look we actually do care about winning the next general election we're not willing to sit by while you stitch up the party so that members on the left can never have a say again and it will be forever a right wing party or a centrist party that won't have success in elections but will be a guarantor to capital on the financial markets that no one is ever going to challenge them trash goon tweets on hashtag Tiskey Sour Batley's election is the choice between Griff to Galloway a Tory and Helping Starmer it's like Alien vs Predator whoever wins we lose yeah that's quite grim I mean what was quite interesting I actually owe in stock which I do recommend going to look at was how I mean the people who were saying they were going to vote against Labour they'll be portrayed as sort of irrational protest voters who are voting emotionally they don't realise that this is a two horse race between Labour and the Conservatives etc etc but what lots of people were saying is essentially look this election isn't going to change anything here the government's still going to be conservative whatever MP we return the local problems are probably going to be the same so we might as well make a statement and I think there's a lot to that as I say I don't have much respect for George Galloway at all actually but his argument was to say oh input to him well aren't you concerned that if you do well that's just going to benefit the Tories and he was like well the Tories will have a majority of one extra or which of those is more significant as much as I don't like the guy and I think he's a deeply problematic politician there are lots of people I think thinking along those lines and it is because Keir Starmer has taken them for granted and now called them racists as well not Keir Starmer personally but the party let's go straight on to our next story after I do one quick shout out Fox doesn't like it when he thinks I'm going to go on to my next story after this you know this call please do go to NavarraMediat.com and donate the equivalent of one hours wage a month if you do so already thank you so much we really do appreciate it the UK government may have abandoned plans for vaccine passports but they are not rolling out the possibility of providing some extra freedoms to people who have been double that's having had both vaccinations now there are two sets of rules up for debate here so they are those concerning self isolation if you've been in contact with someone with COVID-19 and travel how easy it will be to go in and out of the country now on the former so on the issue of self isolation the suggestion is that as we go forward those who have been double vaccinated will not need to go into self isolation if they've been in contact with a positive COVID case but instead take daily tests so you take a test every day and meanwhile you can go about your life as usual instead of being locked in your house now Matt Hancock was asked about that proposal this morning we can take a look at the answer are you going to lift isolation rules for those who have double vaccinations well we know that the vaccine is working it's why it's so important that so many people are coming forward to get it and we're always looking at how we can replace the restrictions that we've had to have as a country with the protection that you get from the vaccine in fact that's the whole point of the vaccine is to protect life and to get us out of these restrictions now we're not able to make any specific announcements on this today it is something that we're working on and I very much hope we'll be able to make progress soon so he's I mean that's quite a strong hint really isn't it that he's saying we can't make an announcement now but you know listening to that alone you'd think probably they are going to change the rules about self isolation he's saying the whole benefit of these vaccines is that we don't have to have such harsh restrictions if you've been double-vaxxed you won't have to self-isolate after you have been notified that you've been in contact with someone as I said that the rules haven't changed if you're notified that you've been in contact you still have to self-isolate no matter how many vaccines you've had the proposal when it comes to travel is that people who are double-vaxxed will not need to quarantine when returning from countries on the amber list again instead you'll be able to go about your normal life and just take a certain number of tests now asked about that possibility Boris Johnson was just as non-committal as Hancock in that previous clip when it comes to travel will certainly be looking at that but I want to stress that this is going to be whatever happens a difficult year for travel there will be hassle there will be delays I'm afraid because the priority has got to be to keep the country safe and to stop the virus coming back in so no guarantees on exemption from quarantine from travellers who are double-jabbed we're looking at it but I want to stress that the emphasis is going to be on making sure that we can protect the country from the virus coming back in another one of those moments where Boris Johnson says something reasonable but you wish he had been following that logic about three months ago when we deft India off the red list and imported all of the delta variant which has delayed all of our exiting from lockdown so slightly frustrating anyway sticking to the policy question at play right now obviously this only makes sense to the extent to which being double vaccinated stops you catching the virus and passing it on and we do have data so the most recent data from public health England on whether or not this is the case it's somewhat mixed so when it comes to the dominant delta variant the latest figures from PHE suggest two doses of the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against symptomatic disease two doses of AstraZeneca is 67% effective against symptomatic disease so there's still a reasonable chance of catching COVID-19 and passing it on if for example you've been double-vaxxed with AZ now this is still you know there's still that would be enough reason to get vaccinated but we know it's more than 67% effective when it comes to hospitalizations it's upwards of 90% effective when it comes to hospitalizations so the vaccines are incredibly effective in that sense but obviously when it comes to these rule changes the only thing that matters is transmission so for me I'm not sure if 67% is high enough now the risk is you know the risk of catching it and passing on COVID is of particular concern when it comes to travel due to the possibility of variants obviously the last thing we want is a variant to come into the country that's even more transmissible than the one we've got and evades vaccines to some degree now on that issue Callum Semple who is a member of SAGE told Sky that what matters when it comes to travel is less the vaccination of or the vaccination status of the travelers and more the level of vaccination in any destination country was him saying what matters is the level of vaccination in the country that people are traveling to because what we're concerned about is variants and it is more likely that new variants will develop in places with high levels of transmission so it's not so much whether the traveler has been vaccinated but whether the person in the country or whether the people in the country were traveling to have been vaccinated Emily Formbury Labour's Shadow Trade Secretary made a different argument to the same effect this time on grounds of fairness I have always said I continue to say we should be led by the science we should be led by advice and I think there's something in us all moving at the same time I mean I'm lucky to have been second vaccinated but I know that there's many people in their 20s who've made huge sacrifices who haven't yet and we should be working as one community on this So being double vaccinated shouldn't afford people any extra privileges? I don't think so not at the moment I think we have to stick together we've expected everybody to stick together we've expected these youngsters to make all these sacrifices I don't see why we should now have a divided society we need to work together That's a pretty strong argument from Emily Formbury she's saying even if there were epidemiological reasons to say it's less risky to allow people who have been double-vaxxed to do what they want to do given that there are large sections of society myself included who haven't had the chance to be double-vaxxed yet it would be fairly unfair if you say you people who we haven't offered two vaccines yet you have to quarantine but people who were offered them back in January you don't Ash I want to know your thoughts on this if people are double-vaxxed should they get more freedoms than everyone else? I'm double-vaxxed so get me back in the club Michael I don't care if I'm the only one in there I do not care no so look I think that there are two separate issues which I'm going to take one at a time one is should double-vaxx people have different self-isolation rules where instead of staying at home for 10 days they're able to daily test I think that once you get to a stage where a sufficient amount of the population here is vaccinated then yes go for it because I hear what you're saying about the the lesser effectiveness of Pfizer and AstraZeneca against the Delta variant but this is where I think the amount of the population that's been vaccinated here is so important because it's a bit like driving within the speed limit right you're playing the percentages here you driving within the speed limit in this case having a vaccine makes you quite a bit safer but you're not entirely safe unless everyone else is doing it too and that's how you end up with you know not having horrible crashes on the roads all the time right so I think that you know and this is where I think Sage have been really good to sort of suggesting well what is the level of safe vaccination for us to have a lot more freedoms domestically I think that once you start looking at that 70% having had a single dose then yes I think you could have changed rules on self-isolation for double-vaxxed people I don't think that that is as much of a slap in the face say as double-vaxxed people overall being able to participate in more travel or leisure activities so when it comes to foreign travel I do think that that's a question of fairness because you have this huge divergence both geographically and by age in terms of who has had the opportunity to get both vaccines so if you've got different rules on the basis of you know who's had both their vaccines and that dictates whether or not you can go on holiday yeah that would smart a hell of a lot even if you're not part of the cool gang like me who's had both of them I mean also if it's perceived as unfair people just won't follow it right so given that these are you know both self-isolation if you've been contacted by Test & Trace and self-isolation after returning to the country from traveling both of those I mean unless you're a country on the red list and you're going to hotel quarantine are essentially based on trust I mean I have heard of people coming and knocking on people's homes but in general it's quite easy to evade those rules so I would imagine if you've got the government saying look if you're a boomer and you've been double-vaxxed you don't have to self-isolate but if you're under 30 and you haven't had the chance to be self self double-vaxxed you have to self-isolate at home people will just break those rules and perceive them as unfair so I doubt that these rules would come into place before a point at which they say all adults have now had the chance to be double-vaxxed which I would imagine is probably mid-September so this could come in then I mean if it did and if we could do that safely that would be wonderful because obviously the less we have to stay in our homes the better let's go on to our final story we have nearly 3,000 people watching which is great on a Monday night I have to say I think the weather has probably helped us here we did notice that when the weather got really good there are a few hundred people less watching the show so you know it's very very bad of you we need commitment whatever the weather you should be tuned in at 7pm final story if you are a Labour MP with personal ambitions it's fashionable to treat Jeremy Corbyn as if he has the plague like a neo-fascist according to the Labour right Keir Starmer's predecessor should be no platformed never should you stand on the same stage as the person you tried to make Prime Minister less than 18 months ago or in fact a little bit more than 18 months ago less than 2 years ago this context Angela Rainer came under pressure when this photo appeared on Twitter last week so you can see here Angela Rainer speaking at a press event for Barry Gardner's campaign to end fire and rehire so fire and rehire is the practice where a boss can say you either have to accept these new contracts or you don't have a job anymore we can essentially fire you and rehire you on a worse contract Labour want that outlawed Barry Gardner's launching a campaign here you can see Rainer Corbyn and Gardner at a press event now according to Plitico's playbook email this picture got Rainer in a spot of bother and a Labour official complained this is another slight on Keir Starmer from Angela Rainer as she is sharing a political platform with the suspended leader of the British Labour Party I don't know why a Labour official would say the British slightly odd statement but anyway that was the statement given to Plitico obviously as I say a stupid complaint this is the guy they were campaigning to be Prime Minister less than two years ago now you can't even stand next to him at a trade union organised event for workers' rights completely ridiculous a decent politician would have made precisely that argument say look I'm not going to be bullied out of standing next to someone that all of my colleagues fought to be Prime Minister that would just be silly that's children's politics a source close to her so the Plitico report goes on a source close to Rainer insists to playbook that Corbyn photo bombed her by sliding into the shot unnoticed and that she did not know he would be there in advance and did not talk to him now if this was true this would be quite sad Jeremy Corbyn he was supposed to be the next Prime Minister he's now just this lonely guy wandering around Westminster every time he sees a camera he just stands and puts his thumbs up even if they're embarrassed that's what he did what he's supposed to do is just Jeremy Corbyn he's bored he appears in photos that would be pretty tragic luckily it's not true as you'll see from this footage of the event yeah I will back Barry's bill why is everybody so quiet why is John Hendy quiet what's the matter with him thank him one more thumbs up back Barry's bill back Barry's bill now that was not photo bombing you'll also notice the Rainer source told another porky because they said Rainer did not speak to Corbyn in that clip they shared a joke about John Healy so the whole thing was a complete lie completely pathetic I mean I think it really shows a politician without much I mean I just find it very very embarrassing I mean you might say it's a source it's not Rainer we'll talk in a moment about what it means when someone says it's a source close to but in any case all of this is quite embarrassing a fair spawned quite a charming meme so in response to the obvious lie from that source people have tweeted their own examples of being struck by photo bomber Corbyn this is Hazel Nolan tweeting I went for a pint at Glastonbury and got a hashtag Corbyn photo bomb you can also see chair of young Labour Jess Barnard she tweets I too have been the victim of hashtag Corbyn photo bomb crimes thoughts and prayers for Angela at this difficult time I like this one a lot from Fantastic Trader they say and who can forget the time Jeremy Corbyn tried to photo bomb a dog and the dog caught him in the act and then this was the best one this was from Sunday night which was Father's Day and Tommy Corbyn who is one of Jeremy Corbyn's son tweeted the following nice Father's Day meal out with my brothers ruined now you might have to get close to your TV and you'll be able to see their Corbyn's free sons next to what looks like some delicious food with Jeremy Corbyn pretending to photo bomb the photo from the background Ash this was obviously a very cute response from Corbynites online but the original comment I mean we can have a discussion about whether source close to Raina means that Raina endorsed the comment but in any case the whole thing is pretty gross isn't it what's your take well look my take is that as you said it's teenage it's petty it's schoolyard because ultimately it's manufactured around which is more damaging to Angela Raina than simply being pictured next to the ex-labor party leader because now she looks like somebody who either has an out of control comms officer or is herself somebody who's not telling the truth and over what over you know standing next to Jeremy Corbyn not only your former boss but somebody who you campaigned to be Prime Minister both sharing your support for a cause which is a hell of a lot more important than who's standing next to who in a photograph so I think that this is really one of those things which is a panicky attempt to soothe frayed nerves amongst a highly selective and out of touch group of insiders and instead it ends up blowing up in your face in terms of whether or not this is going to be important I mean look I kind of think like funny memes should stay funny memes and I thought the response from you know Corbyn supported Twitter accounts and public figures was really cute but it could have an impact if some of the rumors are true and Angela Rainer is sounding out support for a leadership bid that when she comes to you know take her platform to the membership for a vote there will be a few people going hang on but I remember you being a bit snaky when it comes to Jeremy Corbyn who you know the membership are quite likely to have voted for either back in 2015 or in 2016 so I think it's one of those things which was a panicky response a stupid response and it might have a little bit more damage than anyone would have intended I mean it is a bit of a I mean the Angela Rainer is a very interesting figure in the Labour Party right now because basically you know as we've talked about before anyone who challenges Keir Starmer is going to need 14 nominations it's going to be very difficult for anyone from the socialist campaign group to get if Starmer resigns and they only need 20 nominations that might be possible but if he doesn't resign again which I think is unlikely because there's going to be right wingers on the party saying you don't dare resign right and he doesn't strike me as a particularly brave person so I think the challenge is going to need 40 that person will need some sort of coalition of the left and the soft left in the party that's just how the maths stack up the only real candidate one of the only candidates I can think of who could really do that is Angela Rainer so for the left it is going to be in their interests to back Angela Rainer, mainly because she is going to be less committed I would hope to destroying the left than Keir Starmer has proven himself to be. Keir Starmer clearly has no interest in any relationships with trade union movements doesn't have an interest in winning elections he just wants to beat the left I'm not convinced that is Angela Rainer's priority even though in her role as deputy I mean she's pretty I mean events like this just show she has you know she's not a particularly brave politician so I mean we are in between a bit of a rock and a hard place aren't we Ash we've got someone who is willing to do this kind of teenage politics and really kind of trash the reputation of someone who she really tried to make Prime Minister for quite a long period of time I mean that's the thing and I think someone who we know is committed to destroying the left I mean look that's the thing about Jeremy Corbyn which is you know why kick a man when he's down do you know what I mean like he's somebody whose reputation has been you know absolutely besmirched put through the ringer he's been turned into this monstrous demonised figure when what has he done to deserve it sure he might have come down on a Brexit compromise that you disagreed with sure he might not have done all the things when it came to anti-Semitism that he should have done but he wasn't himself a racist he wasn't himself some died in the wall you know hardline idea log he was someone who a lot of the time seemed to be genuinely trying to do his best right that's that is kind of one of the impressions that like I get from him and for me many of his greatest errors come from a lack of ruthlessness rather than too much right that's just not him right conflicted verse guy so here is this pathologically conflicted verse guy who has become the whipping boy of his own party the national media the government who is still treated as persona non grata and you've got the opportunity to you know side with the bullies right which is even more cowardly than being a bully yourself or actually trying to do I think some sensible and some grown-up politics by being like common who gives a shit what's this about and that is revealing I think of something which which is rather unattractive about either Angela Rainer herself or somebody in her team right I don't know who and when it comes to well what is it that the membership will be looking for right not the PLP who I think would quite like seeing somebody you know stomp on Jeremy's head one more time being a snake is like that you put that on your CV oh wait wait wait the Labour Party you know you spat at Corbin in the eye great phenomenal news you know what party brief would you like we'll give you anyone any one of them during the pandemic even better even better like that's an attempted murder basically but I think when it comes to you know what is it that the membership are looking for and I think this is why Andy Burnham's name comes up so often it's because he's somebody who has distinguished himself in the past year in a bit for taking really principled stands against the government so he's somebody who picks his fights who's visible in picking them and all of them seem to have political legitimacy and communicate a sense of integrity right that's kind of what he's been doing over the last year and so I think when you've got something like this where you know Andrew Lorraine has done a lot of other good things you know in the last year or so but it comes to matters of party management hasn't been particularly principled or speaking up in defence of those who've been unfairly maligned you know she's had her peace to say against the government and it's been good but it hasn't had the same visibility I think or the same cut through as Andy Burnham and stuff like this I do think if you're looking towards a leadership bid can really disadvantage you now isn't the time to go with the crowd now isn't the time to you know try and please some fucking no mark in Keir Starmer's office everyone knows his days are numbered now's the time to put your head above the parapet and stand for something and if you don't do that I think not only does that speak to perhaps a lack of clarity but also a lack of political judgment and a lack of experience I think it just makes you look like you're not in control of what you're doing like oh I was photo bombed it's just pathetic come on it's embarrassing you want to lead a major political party and when you pose next to someone and then you get in trouble for it you say it was photo bombed or a source close to you says it was photo bombed the whole thing is I think it's gross what a shame we have ended on time today for once Ash I'm gonna I'm gonna free you before 8 15 8 30 whatever this is the this is the hour slot I actually have you booked in for I can have my dinner finally at the temperature God intended it to be well I am very pleased for you about that thank you as ever for joining me on this Monday night and thank you everyone for your super chats and your comments tonight we'll be back on Wednesday at 7 p.m. so make sure to hit subscribe for now you've been watching Tiskey sour on the bar media good night