 We are in the middle of the largest housing bubble that we have ever seen in our lives. And it's not the type of bubble that you're thinking of. It's what I want to refer to as this reverse bubble that's building and getting bigger and bigger and bigger every single day. The longer mortgage rates stay up, the bigger this bubble is going to be when it pops and it will eventually pop. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to uncover tons of data here in this video. So watch till the end and I'm going to give my two cents and go a little deeper at the end to really make sure you understand my theory here behind what is going to happen. We're also going to dive into Redfin data, which I love. Talk about how a record number of Americans say right now is a bad time to buy. We're going to talk about the 10 markets in the U.S. that are up the most and the 10 that are down the most. And also why economists think that the worst of the housing recession may be behind us. But first, there's a report out by TransUnion that say that Gen Z say they're waving bye-bye to home ownership right here in the latest report from TransUnion. Mortgages are out. Credit cards are in. Gen Z is saying goodbye to home ownership dreams and hello to the sweet embrace of credit card debt and personal loans when it comes to mortgage originations volume fell to a record low of 899,000 units in the first quarter of 23 down 59% from a year ago. So yes, I'm not going to deny this whatsoever. We are in the middle of a real estate crash. Transactions are probably going to get hit somewhere in the 4.2 million range. We hit 4.1 million back in 2008, which was the worst year of that late 2000s mortgage meltdown. So we are there, ladies and gentlemen. The only difference is prices haven't went down. Yes, we had a correction bigger than we normally have through the fall last year. But it was very short lived and that came from a place of supply and demand, right? And that's the big difference in 2008. And now I'm going to dive deeper. This was very interesting. Purchases made up 87% of the first quarter's mortgage origination volume with elevated mortgage rates continuing to drive boroughs away from refinancing. However, the UWM president and CEO said during yesterday's earning call that he's staffing up for future refi boom fingers crossed. So even UWM, they're sitting here looking at this and they realize that a retraction of transactions and mortgage loan originations is only building up demand of people who want to refi. And all the people that are buying right now at these higher rates are definitely going to refi later when rates go down. Now, when are rates going to go down? That's the only magic question that no one has a silver bullet on. I'll give you my thoughts as we move forward here towards the end of the video. A couple of other key notes to take note of is the inflation report that just happened. It's easing up, but don't celebrate just yet. It's a 3.2% increase right from last year. Okay. What it means your housing and car insurance are still costing you. Thank goodness for those mild inflation levels. All right. Core inflation grew by 0.2% for the month leading to a 12-month rate of 4.7. So it actually, it's heading in the wrong direction, but was better than estimates. 73% of Americans think homes are unaffordable and the majority don't even know the real price. Misunderstanding interest rates and down payments too. Looks like home buying 101 needs to be a mandatory class. So this is a hit. This is a hint, hint for all the real estate agents out there looking for what to create content around. If you're trying to create content for your real estate business, you might want to think about home ownership 101, right? Going out there and saying, not only is it a good time to buy, but here's how to buy, right? I think that's where content needs to go. How to, of course, a lot of people has been doing how to for a long time, but we've kind of gotten away from it. And there's so much content out there about what to do, why to do it, but not how to do it. So make sure that, you know, we think of it as, you know, we do this every day, and this is second nature to us, but it's not second nature to the general public. So think about that when you're out there creating content. Let's look at the Redfin data, right? Let's look at the Redfin data. This is very interesting when I look at this. Actually, I put this on the bigger screen for you and really dive in here. So when I dive in here, these are the amount of home sold, okay? The blue line, of course, is this year. We're down considerably from, you know, 2021 and 2022. But look what happened here recently. And also, if you look at the ebbs and flows of every year, the peaks and valleys line up exactly all through the year, even, you know, through January and then as it rebounds every year. It does the same thing every year. When you look at this, you realize how cyclical the business really is. Even this peak and valley right here lines up with exactly what it was two years ago. And last year, now, but look at what happened here recently. You know, we have a valley that lines up with the other two years right there. But this shot up way harder than the previous two years. So that's interesting. But when you look at that, you have to realize that that is close deals, which means they went pending, you know, 30 to 60 days ago. So when you think about that, right, this isn't a clear evidence of what's happening right now. This is clear evidence of what happened 30 to 60 to even 90 days ago. So keep that in mind when you're looking at closed cell data, so on and so forth. When you look at medium sales prices, okay, right around here, I realize we're going to go positive year over year at some point because we're going to break through this wall. And then right around here, I thought, oh my goodness, I think we're going to get hit an all-time new high again, which we did according to Zillow and other entities. But look here, we normally, you know, level off. And even in 2021, it levels off, right? It went from 344 down to 338. It wasn't a big drop, but it was a drop. Even in the year of the boom, 2021, we did drop in the fall. It happens every single year. And we started to level out here this year, as we always do. But you see it kind of perked up a little bit right there. Now, see it kind of perked up last year too at the same time. So we'll see what happens. That this is kind of the peak of prices for the year, and it kind of dwindles for year. It's going to end up positive on the year, but we just all know exactly where it's going to land. So we'll keep an eye on that, but it's interesting how it's leveled out, and it has a little peak right there. The same with home sold. We saw a little peak, and we see a little peak. So we'll kind of see what happens there. New listings is a very interesting chart to look at, right? It comes across, and we're down like 23%, 25%, 26%, 27%. So we're at down 27% back like 30 days ago, 30, 40 days ago. And then right here, when all the other years tend to kind of come down a little, this year is kind of perked up. Like this year, it went sideways instead of down this time of year. And now you even see it spiking a little bit right there. That's incredible to see. Might we see this year go positive year over year when it comes to new listings hitting the market? I think it's a possibility, especially when you see how far down 2022 actually went. But we're going to experience that this year, I believe, as well because the trend, even in 2021, the year of the boom again, we see new listings dwindle down. And even when prices were really high and sellers could make a lot of money, there wasn't a lot of inventory for those sellers to go out and rebuy something. Let's look at active listings. We're still down year over year 17% as far as active listings, which is a historic low for this time of year. So we'll see where this goes. We normally see that active listings are still climbing this time of year, the past two years. But this year is kind of flat. So that's not extremely encouraging on the inventory side. But that's okay. All right, now let's dive into this. A record number of Americans say it's a bad time to buy. A monthly survey by Fannie Mae finds that 84% of consumers said July was a bad time to buy. A record in polling data going back to 2010. So this is kind of a record that right now is a bad time to buy. Well, why is a bad time to buy? Well, people feel like it's a bad time to buy because prices and rates are so high right now compared to what they were. And when you combine high prices and high mortgage rates, of course it's going to put a damper. What I want to know, the survey that I feel like they should put out and start trying to survey people on, and I've seen a little bit of data here and there on this, is how many people want to move? Okay, how many people want to move? How many first-time home buyers have been priced out of the market that really want to buy a home? That's the number I want to see. I think they should start doing reports on what the pent-up demand is because, guys, it's historic. I'm going to go ahead and break down the two avenues of pent-up demand that I feel like is really brewing right now that's going to cause this reverse bubble to pop. As soon as rates get down to whatever level is going to make this thing pop, and I don't know what that level is going to be. I feel like at 6% interest rates, we're going to see a big spike. I feel like at 5.5%, we're going to see more inventory from people who decide that they will sell. And I think 5% is going to be the absolute end-all, be-all when it comes to more inventory in the market but also even more buyers. And it's just going to be an absolute mess. It's going to be more than anything that you've ever seen in the real estate market. But these two avenues are, number one, millennials who are just becoming 33 years old. I've broken this down in other videos, but let me break it down right here. I'm going to just show you. This is a chart of 50-year birth rates. And what we see here, all right, let me bring it right here. What we see right here is a spike. You see 1990, and right here we see a spike, a massive spike, not just a little spike. And that elevated birth rates for the people that are being born stays at this level for 15, 16, 17 years, right? This demand is not going to stop. And so when you think about how many new 33-year-olds that are in the US and how that trend is going to continue for well over a decade or two, when you think about 33 to 36-year-olds, which is the average age of a first-time home buyer, 98% of these people want to become homeowners, you really start to realize how much underlying demand is out there. Okay, that's just one avenue. First-time home buyers is the amount of 33-year-olds is more than we've seen. Like, it's like double what we've seen in almost 20 years. The other avenue are sellers, are people who are sitting in their homes who want to move. They want to upgrade. They either hate their home or they need to relocate or they need extra space, whatever it is. Maybe they just want a nicer home. They want or need to move, but they can't because it just financially doesn't make sense. It doesn't make sense to go from a 3.5% mortgage to a 6.5% mortgage. So just they're just not going to do it, okay? So, but that demand is brewing more and more and more. I'll show you an article on this. Let me find it right here. Okay, why so many Americans feel trapped with their low-rate mortgages. Okay, let me make this big so you can really see this. All right. Why so many Americans feel trapped by their mortgage, by their low-rate mortgages. Okay, the recent spike in mortgage rates called the so-called, created the so-called golden handcuffed effect. Nearly 82% of homeowners feel locked in by their existing low-rate mortgage, according to Realtor.com. So, 82%, they feel locked in. When you feel locked in, that's basically saying, like, I don't necessarily want to be here. Okay, I don't know that the data is actually saying, hey, those 82% would move, but when you say you're feeling locked in, then that tells me that you don't necessarily want to be where you are. Okay, now look at this couple. And it's funny because this couple is from where I'm at down here in Alabama. These people are from Mobile, Alabama. Bob and Terry Wood of Mobile, Alabama, with their grandson. Okay, these people want to relocate from Mobile and they want to move to Tennessee. Okay, 66-year-old been thinking of selling us home on Mobile. The finance professor and his wife, Terry, purchased the 5,000 square foot home a decade ago. He said, probably it's a time downsized. They don't need 5,000 square feet. They would also like to move closer to their grandchildren in Tennessee. They want to move. Okay, yet we're in the 10th year of our 3.125% 15-year fixed mortgage. Right, they don't want to move now and give up that low rate to buy at a higher rate. We just don't want to pay all that interest. So this is a clear example, guys, of somebody who really wants to move but is just not going to do it because it just doesn't make sense financially. Okay? Wood is among a stockpile, right? A stock of people sitting on very cheap mortgages. Okay, this is Thomas Phillips and a professor of public study at the University of Chicago and former acting chair of the White House Council at the Economic Advisors. Those homeowners would need to finance a home at a higher rate than they could hold, adding hundreds of dollars to their mortgage, which has created an incentive to stay where they are. For them, opting not to move is the right strategy, okay? So that's just so very interesting when you think about it. And right here, you know, you've got all kinds of people saying that 5% is going to be the tipping point where people that feel like they're locked into their homes will probably sell. They'll say, okay, you know, I can deal with 5%. So think about these two avenues. More 33-year-olds that will be 34 next year, 35 the next year, 36. And then another group of 33-year-olds in the average age of a first-time home buyer, 33 and 36, we have probably double or two and a half times more of these people than we've had in over two decades. And we don't even realize it because the moment they turn 33, mortgage rates were on the rise and so they were about to buy and now they're just sitting there. And when these buyers are unleashed, when mortgage rates get down to the point where they say, okay, I can afford it, it's going to be like a tsunami. Not only that, but we're going to have more inventory from the sellers who say, okay, I'll sell at 5% rates. I'll sell my 3.5 and buy at a 4.8% rate. You know, we've been in this house long enough. It's time to move. It's time to move. We're going to see so much inventory. And then those sellers who sell are going to be buyers. So it's going to add even more buyers to this entire equation, right? So there's a lot going on there. Let's look at these 10 markets because this is really interesting, okay? How home data for these 10 housing markets that are up the most and 10 that are down the most, okay? So basically when you look at the 10 that are down the most, it's Boise, Austin, Phoenix, Vegas, Stockton, California, Sacramento, Spokane, Oklahoma City. These are all down the most, okay? There's 10 of them there. Then you've got Augusta, Georgia, New Haven, Connecticut, Syracuse, Rochester, Hartford, Omaha, Knoxville. These are all up the most, okay? So when you go down here and you look at the map of the U.S., you realize that most of the down markets are actually on the western side of the country. And a lot of the up markets are on the eastern side of the country, right? That's just interesting to note, okay? Now down here, I want to show you this chart, which is really breaking some things down, okay? Because the 10 markets that are down the most are actually up over the last three months. Those are year over year numbers. But I thought this was interesting to add, okay? Several firms think the housing, national housing prices have bottomed. This includes AEI Housing Center, CoreLogic and Zillow, okay? However, and all these entities revised their housing forecast to show big positive numbers over the next 24 months, okay? And then you've still got economists at Moody's Analytics and more just saying you think national home prices have a little further to fall. And it'll happen as the housing market exits the season of the strong sales, right? And moves into the seasonally weaker window, the second half of the year. Well, of course, we're going to see, you know, prices come down a tad. It happened even in 2021. So that's not even kind of a genius forecast there. Of course, it's going to happen. But this is the interesting part, okay? The latest forecast model produced by Freddie Mac predicts U.S. home prices will fall 2.9% this year, okay? We're up like big this year. And we're up like close to 10%, you know, from January 1, not year over year, January 1. And 1.3%, so the thing is going to drop 2.9% this year, 1.3% next year, okay? So down this year, down next year, all right? But this is the interesting part. Economists at Freddie Mac appear to have low confidence in their own model, okay? This is what they said. Given the current housing market conditions with historically low inventory and an early read on our data, we will likely revise our negative home price forecasts in the next iteration. We expect tight inventory will push sales and volume, push sales volume down. And we expect it to keep national home prices up. So even Fannie Mae is coming out and saying, you know what? We said it was going to be down 2.9% this year. We said it was going to be down 1.3% next year. But you know what? We weren't even confident in that anymore because the market has just proved us wrong. So we're going to redo our forecast there. So when we look at this chart, okay? These are all the 100 housing markets that they track, right? This could be, this might be 200. It's 100 or 200 markets. Looks like 100. So this is month of, this first column is month over month. The second column is year to date. Then you've got year over year. Then you've got down from peak, okay? Then you've got since March 2020. So that's from the moment of the pandemic, okay? So let's look at the moment from the pandemic. The blue is positive. So there's not a single market down from the moment that the pandemic hit. And all these markets are up 30% to 60% from the pandemic. Even the ones that are in the red a little bit here by 1% here and there, they're still up big, big, big since the pandemic, okay? And if we look at month over month, okay? There's only one there, Austin and one in Hawaii and in Boise. There's only three markets. So three of those seven, three of the 10 that were down the most are actually, are actually, there's only seven of those of the 10 are actually up over the last several months. And the ones that are down are down 0.12%, 0.33%, 0.16%. I mean, let's just call those even, right? It's like less than half a percent down month over month. It's pretty good. It means they're kind of holding firm. So it's just interesting to look at the 10 markets that are actually down year over year the most are actually up over the last several months. So the trend is up, not down. Let's see what else I got for you here as I'm just blowing through the data. I hope this is helping you guys. If it is, you know, throw me a comment. Let me know what you think in the comments. Subscribe if you haven't already. The housing market seller strike is so ruthless that only seven of the nation's 200 largest markets are back to pre-pandemic inventory levels. And this was written by Lance Lambert, who actually I'm going to have on the show. We're going to record an interview tomorrow and I'll have him on and I'll put that out the week after. So looking forward to that, this guy really keeps up with what's happening out there, a big numbers guy like I am. But it's interesting. I thought this part was interesting, this first paragraph and I'll just read it to you. The surge in the housing demand in 2020-2021 was so substantial that the Federal Reserve researchers estimate that housing supply would have needed to increase by a staggering 300% in order to match the pandemic housing demand surge. So back in 2020-2021, when we saw that big surge, they kind of did the research and Federal Reserve researchers said, we would have had to have 300% more inventory to keep up with that demand. The surge was primarily propelled by the shift to remote work and the household formation boom triggered by the separation of roommates seeking greater space. And that also has to do with families being created, right? And roommates decide they don't want to live together anymore, but also new families, people that have children and decide to move out of their parents' house, so on and so forth. At the peak of the pandemic housing boom, only 546,150 homes were available for sale on Realtor.com in July 2021. A sharp decline from the 1.2, 1,239,298 homes on the market in July of 2019. So we went from 1.2 to 1.3 million homes on the market just a couple years ago to 546,000 homes, right? So it's just when you think about all of this guys and you put it all together and you think next year, the year after, the year after, you just can't help but to believe. Now, with mortgage rates, I think there's a couple of things happening. I think that we're going to see, you know, okay, I don't want to speculate on this, but we're going into an election year, okay? And normally they're going to try to spark some economic growth during an election year to make the current administration look great and try to get reelected. So it's going to be real interesting to see if that plays into what we do with interest rates and how that's going to affect the mortgage rate market. I'm very interested in that and to kind of see where that plays. But at the bottom line, let me just summarize the entire video. We're moving into the fall market, which is always slower, even in 2021. So don't be alarmed if you see lower prices. If you see, you know, days in the market go up. If you see, you know, less transactions, this is very normal every year we see it. Don't let the camp out there of people who say prices are going to go down 30%. Scary into thinking that this fall seasonal downturn is the crash coming that they've been talking about because it's not going to be, you know. So we're going to see that, okay? This fall slowdown that always happens every year. So don't be alarmed. What we also see is decades and decades of demand from first-time home buyers and those people wanting to upgrade and downgrade later on down the road. We just have so much business opportunity in the future. It's not even funny. We also see set up homeowners who are locked in who want to move, who feel locked in. When you feel locked in, it tells me you don't want to be there. I'm not saying that's true for all of those homeowners, but I can guarantee you there's a lot of them. And every single day that goes by, they think about it more and more and more and more. And they're just waiting for the day. Their rates get down to, you know, a place that they can actually swallow, that they can actually, you know, deal with. And they're going to go out there. They're going to sell their home. They're going to upgrade. They're going to become a buyer. They're going to add to inventory. And then they're going to be a seller and add to inventory. Then they're going to become a buyer, right? It's just going to add so much spark to the industry. And it's just going to help us get back to that 5 million transaction a year market that we all know and love. And now when we get to the 5 million a year market, you're going to appreciate it way more than you did. Because you know what it's like to go through a very depressed market. And that's what we have, ladies and gentlemen. This is the depressed market. A lot of people want to try to argue and say, it's going to get worse. It's going to get worse. Yeah, it's going to get a little slower through the fall like it normally does. But in terms of this massive crash happening, some crazy thing happens that comes out of left field like another pandemic, a war, something just out of the blue. Now, of course, that could happen at any moment. But when it comes to the fundamentals of the market, when it comes to real data and everything that's happened historically with housing and the outlook of everything, we're in fantastic shape. And the people that are buying loans right now have the ability to repay. That's a big, big, big thing to note right now. That the transactions that are happening that are being mortgaged, okay, these buyers have the ability to repay. They're not giving loans to just anybody, ladies and gentlemen. There's about 5% of loans that are non-QM, non-qualified mortgages. But a good, and even the non-qualifiers have the ability to repay or they wouldn't do the loans. But my point is is that we're not getting in trouble with the loans that we're putting out there right this second because of the regulations that the government put in place years ago to help prevent a massive crash like we had back in 2008 with all the foreclosures and everything. I mean, the regulations have literally saved us because if it wasn't for the regulations on lending and appraisals and stuff of that nature, we would probably be in serious trouble right now when it comes to home prices and people would lose equity in their homes, people would be foreclosed on, and it would cause a serious, serious recession. But we're not experiencing that. Now, when you look at the inflation data, they, in the data, you'll find that really the biggest problem that they're having with inflation is really housing. The shelter costs, the rental and home prices and everything else that has to do with shelter costs, that's really the biggest problem that they have. It's the only thing that's really hanging in there that's really given them a problem. And the big problem from that is, is the higher they keep rates, the less inventory there's going to be, which is going to put upper pressure on prices. So they're really going to pickle when it comes to real estate, I would say, and it's going to be interesting to see how the whole thing plays out. At the end of the day, right, if you're a real estate agent, none of this matters. You go out there and help people buy and sell, closings are going to happen every single day, regardless of what you do forever. Okay, look at dot-com crash 9-11, 2008 pandemic. Closings happen every single day. If you're an investor like me, go out there and buy properties. I just put a duplex under contract this morning. It's an older duplex. It's been fixed up. It's, I love the property. Put it under contract this morning, at least made an offer. Made a full price offer. It's off-market. So hopefully I get that fingers crossed, but I already have five new construction homes under contract. Not three under contract. We closed on two. So I'm buying five total. We've already closed on two. We've got three more. We're closing on one next week. I'm closing on two more at the end of September. And then I've got this duplex under contract. So that's six properties, actually seven doors that I'm buying right now, currently, in this market. So, you know, a lot of people might say, you're a real estate agent. Of course, you're going to say the market's great. Go buy and all this stuff. But what the matter is, I'm out here buying real estate. I'm buying houses every day. Every day I'm looking for deals and I'm putting offers in and I'm closing on properties. So I'm not just out here saying, oh, it's going to be great. Listen, I would honestly, it would be fine with me if prices go down 30%, 40%, 50%, right? Like a lot of the bears are saying, I would love that if that happened. Why? Because I would be buying, I would buy more than I'm buying right now. You know, it's kind of hard to find deals, honestly, right? There's not a lot of inventory. Not a lot of people want to sell. It's hard to find deals, okay? If prices went down considerably, that means there's a lot of inventory. That means there's a lot of properties for sale. I can take my pick of the very nicest properties and get them at an incredible price. Why wouldn't I want the market to come down? Okay? Why wouldn't I want that? I would love that if that happened. But that's not going to happen. And I'm not saying it's not going to happen because I have an ulterior motive that I want the market to go up. I'm trying to convince people to buy properties. It's not what I'm trying to do. What I'm trying to do is just tell you what my opinion is on the market, where I think it's going to go. It doesn't matter to me what it does. I'm going to buy and sell and help people buy and sell in any market. I've already been through all this. I've been selling for since 2002. 2002, you know, I was 20 years old when I got in. So anyway, I hope this video helps you a lot. Gives you clarity on some things. And I appreciate you watching the channel. And reach out if there's anything in the world I could do for you. I am doing a full day workshop. We're going to be prospecting all day, August 18th. So I want to put a link in the description for that. And you know, as always, I love you guys. And just keep crushing it. Let me know what I could do to help.