 Hello and welcome to this quick preview of the week ahead starting the 19th of September and I think the key main factors to keep an eye on this week in the wake of recent central bank meetings from the Swiss National Bank, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are this week's Bank of Japan rate meeting due Wednesday morning and the US Federal Reserve rate meeting due on Wednesday evening and I think that's going to be the main focus for markets over the course of the past few days and I think the primary driver could well be what the US Federal Reserve might do when they conclude their September meeting on Wednesday night. Now recent hawkish commentary from a number of senior Fed officials has unsettled markets in recent weeks given that there is clear evidence that the US economy has been slowing for several months now and continues to look weak in the most recent ISM numbers and also in the latest consumer spending and retail sales data. Now we have seen a fairly nice counterbalance to some of the hawkish rhetoric over the past few days from permanent Fed official Lail Brainard who more than any other US policymaker does appear to be more in tune with what is happening in the US economy than her more hawkish colleagues. She's warned pretty much that there are significant dangers to acting too hastily and actually when you look at the actual GDP numbers for the US economy as dictated by this graph we can actually see that since 2015 the end of March 2015 which is the first quarter US GDP growth has been trending lower currently trending at around 1.2% and on the basis of the most recent economic data that we've seen out of the US economy is actually potentially trending below 1%. Now that's not the sort of data that you'll be looking to hike rates into. Despite all this jaw-boning it does remain highly likely that the Fed will choose to do nothing despite all the hawkish rhetoric and I think we have to take into account the fact that bond markets are starting to look a little bit soggy at the moment and stock markets are also starting to look a bit soggy as well and the fact that the US presidential election is starting to look a little bit more antagonistic and the polls are now starting to get on a knife edge. With that in mind I think the main focus I think needs to be on the Bank of Japan and that would suggest as potentially more scope for a surprise there. It's becoming increasingly obvious I think to most people in the market that the central bank is running out of road on its own easing policy and it has been reported that government corrode could well nudge rates even lower from minus 0.1% to minus 0.2% as well as widening out the central bank's buying program for JGBs and ETFs. There's a big problem here however the bank is running out of assets to buy. It's already one of the largest shareholders in Japan's top companies and it could become the largest shareholder in at least 55 Japanese companies by the end of next year and that's going to be a problem because first and foremost it's not a healthy state of affairs. It could present a conflict of interest with respect to future liquidity and the amount of shares available to purchase in the Japanese stock market and it could make it much more difficult for private investors to purchase stakes in some of the smaller companies given the shrinking availability of the free float of shares available on that particular stock market. So with both central banks concluding their meetings within hours of each other the market I think to keep an eye out for is likely to be dolly yen and that's the chart that I've got in front of me right here. On the daily chart it's a daily candlestick chart we can see that the Ichimoku Cloud has been trending lower along with the price over the course of the past year or so and in the course of that year the price action has never once been above the upper line of the cloud. Now that upper line currently sits just below 103 by the time this video goes out we could well have broken into that but certainly I think the key resistance levels at the moment for dolly yen are in and around these levels between 103 and 104.50 which suggests to me that the line of least resistance for dolly yen is towards the downside and I think that is really the direction of travel with respect to where we could go to next. That's the line of least resistance so I think the risk here remains for a break to the downside given that whatever the Bank of Japan tries to do next could well get derailed by the US Federal Reserve and I think the main focus then will be on Fed Chief Janet Yellen's press conference just after the Fed decision at 7 p.m. UK time. If she plays a dead bat about the prospects of a December rate hike then the US dollar could welcome under further pressure particularly since US GDP GDP growth on the basis of that chart that I showed you earlier has been in decline since the first quarter of 2015. So that concludes this week's preview thanks very much for listening this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets.