 Okay, Tuesday 25th of May hope you are doing well and before I begin the regular briefing just a quick shout out again to remind you of the Amplify live market watch podcast if you just go on to Apple podcast or Spotify and search for it You better find what we have now is about 17 episodes Covering a variety of different things the head of training appears and I have a conversation a new episodes guy every Friday So check it out. Otherwise, let's get straight to it and talk about what's going on in markets this morning and Generally a positive sentiment oil continues to rebound We've now reversed nearly all of the move lower that we saw last week and in fact since Friday We're up nearly 8% in WTI crude and I'll talk about the reason rationale more in a moment Equity index futures continue to reverse course. We'll look at those from a technical perspective as well This follows the positive clothes we had on Wall Street all majors three indices finishing firmly in the green 10 out of the 11 Kind of sectors or groups in the S&P 500 were higher tech out performed S&P up 1% down up half a percent D nasdaq 100 up about 1.75 percent of the clothes So your apples Amazons were up about one and a half to 1.7 percent Tesla Which obviously has been beaten down of late. They were actually up in excessive 5% yesterday Benchmark 10 year Treasury yields and the dollar declined and so as we were talking about in the community yesterday You've got this reoccurring theme. We're kind of back in that space now with inflationary Expectations declining in fact yields moving lower T-notes and equities moving higher and the dollar weaker which is supporting those major currency pairs as Any of that short-term strength in the dollar Continues to be counteracted as Fed officials remain firm with their transit review of inflation So let's just have a look at a couple of charts from a technical perspective Then we'll run through the news in the new normal or regular routine. So Dollar index actually just hitting fresh lows as we deliver this briefing. So the Dixie is now down At around eighty nine seventy one which is a loss of around coming up to point two of one percent on the session. So Just seeing euro dollar just printing fresh highs here. So just breaking out above the double top from yesterday afternoon and euro futures here and The kind of late Asia trade. So just keeping an eye here as we trade one twenty two thirty seven 43 upside would be that area of Highs that restricted price action going from Thursday and Friday of last week and then anything above there We'll be looking at yes last week's weekly higher one twenty two fifty one should we move higher on the daily chart? Of course for the euro these are Important areas that we're trading at from a technical perspective. You can see here stretching it back to late February We've seen this one twenty two kind of fifty area being a difficult level for the market to trade above but in a Period of pretty persistent dollar weakness underlined by the fact that we have seen kind of hedge fund positioning adding to kind of shorts at the moment in the dollar and With potentially favorable economic data coming out from Europe We've got iPhone coming out which is expected to be pretty firm this morning Be interested to see whether or not that can act and enough of the catalyst in those conditions If there's kind of diverging fundamentals at the moment with this really resurgent euro Which you can quite quite clearly see here for the the price over the last eight weeks or so Comparative to the general weakness direction of a weakening dollar that we've had so any broader move above this This is looking on the daily continuation chart Then we'd be looking to target then up towards the kind of early Jan highs and the eighth And basically the one twenty three hander would be the next obvious target above there Then then looking to have eyes on the year to date higher one twenty three sixty eight Again not not necessarily looking for that move to occur today But today's close and whether or not we finish a bubble below that level be quite quite key for the euro Similarly the pound continues to be supported in the weaker dollar environment. So Did see a bit of a chop through that trend line yesterday? But then it's still relatively well respected after that brief Excursion to the downside we saw in the European morning And now I think we've got a fairly nice platform here that the market responded to which was the high that we saw this time yesterday In the European open markets pulled back to that space as Europe's come in and this latest dollar declines Just helping us accelerate back up onto the upside here. So again targeting upside You've got that high that we are printing back around Friday afternoon for the decline Took hold and that would also be the psychological 142 hand on the upside. So for directionally still favoring the upside bias in those currencies And the dollar Fluctuation continues to be quite important for gold But for gold if we just flick it onto a daily at the moment This is kind of what we're talking about in the briefing yesterday. I do think we're in for a period of a bit of Consolidation if anything here in gold prices just given the really Strong move that we've seen I mean from a percentage basis here if we're looking at Just a period of the last Well, if we take it back to the bottom of the move 31st of March, so we're talking about, you know, less than Two months worth of price action. We've risen about in excess of 12 percent. So As you can see here, we tend to go through a push a bit of a pullback consolidation push Consolidation and I think we're in that latter phase at the moment. So On the upside obviously 1900s key target It could trade a little bit more heavy on the pullbacks down to around 64 but Overall if you look at this on a 30 minute and where we're trading at the moment I think this is kind of the range of which we will probably respect for the time being you can see on the intraday You've got this double top from the overnight Asia pack session Which is holding for the moment. So that's to keep your eyes on the upside pivots That's just above that about a dollar and a half above Entargeting some of the higher price action we had from yesterday, which would coincide with the R1 Should we start to see a bit of any further breakout? Likely contingent on on more dollar weakness to get up there on the downside Then got the S1 at 69 and 70 starts to bring in some of those lows and the price action Thursday Friday last week And then you've got this more broader Range kind of plays down from 65. So overall that's what I'm looking at in gold to remain within this 65 to kind of 91 range and that sounds quite wide, but then in respect of the daily I think we need to see that Range play out a little more before we then start to see there a 1900 test or a more deeper correction But at this point And cut kind of just would say better to just play those those ranges for the time being Equities then the Dax has seen on the daily chart What I think is technically quite an important break higher obviously just really strong gains being seen since Friday Sessionless equity recovery says looking on the daily chart and something we've looked at a couple times So just to give you a reference point basically from here. This is the year-to-date price action And we've managed to break above what had been an air of resistance Respected both in April and in in May and we closed above there Importantly yesterday and you can see then this morning. We briefly came back to the level and we're moving back onto the upside again so I think technically that was an important close yesterday for the Dax and Subsequently the US equity index futures also it's just higher Again the Dax move more in sympathy I'd say the US more than lead at the moment just generally for equity sentiment But you can see here it doesn't extension just had a little pop through The late US session high and it's just seen the acceleration of gains We're looking at the NASDAQ 100 here in the future of the 30 minute if we go on the daily Again, I think this is quite an interesting area. I'd like to see how we kind of close here In the NASDAQ today, and it's obviously very early at the moment But whether or not then we can close above this kind of area to see whether or not we can then sort of consolidate within this kind of area price area Rather than if we close below consolidating at around this 100 DMA blue line and That kind of respective previous level that's had Being somewhat of an inflection point for price around the 13,300 level So quite interesting at the moment now at equities is this this this kind of recovery continues to take hold and On the S&P a bit of a squeezing price coming into The kind of Asia session bit of a breakout scene from the from the high that was just before the closing Wall Street before a late dip And on the daily chart again, this is what we were looking at yesterday It's quite an interesting area. We've managed to get our heads above here. As you can see again good area of resistance Around 41 79 and a half. This is what we were talking about in yesterday's briefing. Can we close above that? We we did and we did by a clear distance and now the market is continuing to move higher and on the daily chart here You've got to think a retest of the all-time highs back on the cards again at 42 38 and to help that retest of the highest couple things that are happening one is bit of more stability in in the crypto space and I'm pretty reticent to draw too many parallels to crypto fluctuations to other asset class movements But it definitely helps general broader sentiment when the crypto Sell-off that ensued last Wednesday is not happening and things are a bit more stable and with that as well The US 10 year continues to move higher So any fears of on the rates side and inflation continues to remain fairly Controlled at this point in time the US 10 year you can see horizontally now just finding a bit of resistance around that 17th high And that trend line we're looking at yesterday Which was well respected to start is now playing on the other side as an area of support here So you're pretty tight range You're just trading between that trend line pivot and that previous high on the the 17th And you break up above that the R1 in the 10 year 23 pretty much lines up with the commencement of that trend line On the 11th done. I'll be keeping an eye on so at the moment As long as these moves are continuing you'll decrease Crypto stability Then I don't see any reason my equities can't continue to just kind of grind it up higher to be honest And if we get continued dollar weakness as well Then everything should kind of continue to click as it has done from a correlation point of view Talking of inflation expectations then a couple of things to show you on the screen Off the boil I mean this is looking at market implied US inflation expectations and they have dropped Recently this is looking at the the kind of dollar Inflation swap forward the five year five year on the bottom and the US 10 year break-even rate on the weekly net change And you can see here then really The Fed Continuing to just stick with that idea of transitry and let me remind you we do have some Fed speakers Yesterday feds brain-hard Bostic Bullard so the three bees came out yesterday and they said they wouldn't be surprised to see bottlenecks and supply shortages Push prices up in the coming months as the pandemic recedes and pent up customer demand is unleashed but much of those price gains should prove temporary and So this hasn't caused the move in the market Parse but it definitely just goes to show that you know if you say something enough people start to believe you that old mantra So and that appears to be the case as far as what some of these inflation Indicators are showing at the moment and that for me is a positive for the equity space if this continues to be the pattern that we see Elsewhere oil oil markets I mean we'll just have a quick look at the oil chart because I think you really need to see it in the bit of perspective and This is WTI crude front month futures on a on a 30 minute And as you can see here after a significant selling that we saw Pretty much throughout last week We've now reversed nearly all of the move and having we've traded down as much as 61 60 50 cents we're now back up at Nearly 66 34 at the high seen early this morning So we've seen a decent seven and a half seven point seven percent or so bounce from last Friday So this is only literally about a Session and a bit's worth of price action and we've recovered that loss So really decent buying here and and what's going on? What's underpinning this recovery in oil? Well, there's a couple of different things for one Iran has said that gaps remain in negotiations aimed at reaching a deal To end us sanctions on its crude and you know, this is a good lesson I think in in understanding if you're not If you haven't tracked these types of u.s. Iranian sanction negotiations before It's a very complicated matter on many different fronts in terms of what the geopolitics involved is and so With that then trying to achieve a deal as much as there could be some positive Signs as they were at the end of last week Which really was a key catalyst for the downside Getting the deal kind of done and the ink on the paper is another matter and so they're not quite there Yet, so we've seen a bit of reversal But there's other things and more important things. I think beyond Iran but on the Iran point Goldman Sachs have released a note yesterday. They said that while the market is anticipating The Islamic Republic supply will pick up again by late summer So this is people's concern last week is about how much more oil will Iran bring back to market? Let's not forget that Iran After Saudi and Iraq is the third largest producer in within the OPEC nations GS said the demand Recovery will be strong enough to absorb any of that new supply And that's something that we've definitely been saying and a believer of Going forward because the just impacts of Pockets of the global economy from Very big Nations like the US develop Western world in China Would oversee then the amount of supply that Iran could ever bring back to market Counteracted by a definitive demand pickup Through the months ahead GS actually see Brent trading at 80 bucks this year as economies continue to recover from the pandemic Separately city their analysts have said they expect only a partial Return of Iranian barrels initially remember these things don't just flick on a switch and outcomes one and a half million extra barrels And they actually forecast oil hitting mid 70s dollars in q3 But then prices could retreat Thereafter and the retreating thereafter is quite an interesting concept whether or not then as we go through the kind of Exhaustion of stimulus the market does reopen the data starts to roll over after this boom period in data That will go through where growth is really going to spike up Through q3 once it looked like at the end of the year it could be quite interesting And obviously that would be important for oil prices The other point here then is mobility is in the us is picking up to give you a bit of context here Because mobility in the us has a direct implication then for consumption And with more than 61 percent now of us adults having received at least one dose New coronavirus cases rose Just 0.5 percent last week the slowest increase we've seen in the us since march of 2020 So right at the beginning of the pandemic In addition the upcoming memorial day break at the end of may Is a three-day weekend for many and marks the start of driving season And so there's there's a couple of catalysts here underpinning this recovery Um the ability to strike a deal with Iran not being so straightforward the bigger thing here. I think is Um fortunately we're in a situation where economies can continue to reopen and therefore demand will increase And that will outweigh the supply situation in my opinion So that's the oil side of things um bitcoin Yeah, gotta have a quick mention haven't we so Yeah, this is the latest um Elon musk tweeted last night spoke with north american bitcoin miners They'll commit to publish current plant renewable usage and ask miners w w to do so potentially promising so He was tweeting a lot about dodge dogecoin last night. He was He's obviously tweeted this which is a little bit more complimentary perhaps to bitcoin. It has increased volatility again Nothing to the same degree as what we had last week, but certainly goes to show that this one man Has great influence over the price of this crypto currency and the crypto space you could argue And for me at the moment, uh, you know, definitely as you've probably observed I am talking about bitcoin and so forth more on the briefings and that's because I think that there are you know, if you look at it in the cold heart of day as a trader There are some good opportunities if you're that way inclined liking a high volatility environment And obviously I would say it's more for someone of experience given that degree of risk associated with trading it Um, and so I like to look at it that way I don't like to get too deep into the underlying technology because it starts opening up lots of different conversations that certainly Uh, I think there's people better skilled than I but one thing I can't help but feel is that I can't see how there can be any Institutional adoption of any type of size at the moment Of bitcoin when it's subject to such volatility Down to the fingertips of one man tweeting Whenever he wants about whatever he wants Now, I know some people will come back at me and say well, isn't that what drone power and the fed do? I'd say I'd say no because they have a mandate based on Certain metrics like price stability and maximum employment Not where is my share price? What are my bitcoin holdings doing and you know, how am I invested in these crypto currencies to make a profit? And how big is my ego and so for me? You know jokes aside That's a massive barrier What's been happening over the last two weeks for any type of mainstream of adoption From an institutional basis that this could be a genuine contender as an asset class And I did see a really good image I don't have it up on at the moment about the size of the crypto market Compared to say the credit market or the real estate market, you know, it's marginal at best so Bit of perspective, I guess I mean as I say that doesn't mean you can't trade These things and definitely they've had some some great opportunities. So I'll stick to the chart for the moment and talk about it from that perspective This is looking at the price action of the last two weeks. I think some quite nice technical setup here So some levels to have a look at and you can see this trend line, you know unlike with all crypto currencies, they they tend to have pretty nice technicals given I'd say largely the participants who trade it The emphasis they put on the price action over the kind of relative lack of fundamentals to a certain degree So I'm just keeping an eye on the price action here and I guess before we look at this chart Let's look at the daily 40,000 is still, you know, really a big market here for upside last two sessions here We've kind of got close to it Failed to break it and I think from a psychological point of view, that's quite key I think if we did break above it, I think we can see a decent push back up to 42,000 42 and a half pretty quick Any failure to do so though and we could see some consolidation here at around these current levels for a period of time But downside the same levels still apply. So 32 30 and so on and so forth On the slightly nearer time frame if you're looking at this a little bit closer intraday trades Then yeah upside I'll be keeping it on that trend line, which would come in kind of roughly around the 39 39 and a quarter And then on the downside you've got the rising trend line the pivot level Which I'd keep an on around 37 and a half But that's enough of Bitcoin for now Um calendar wise, what have we got for today? So just to wrap things up from a data perspective We do have the german iPhone numbers coming out this morning They are expected to hit their highest levels since may of 2019 You know, why is that? Well cases are moving lower People are becoming more confident that in the near term the lockdown will ease mobility will increase People can get back to normal and that's just generally lifting sentiment in that reading for the time being so I don't know how surprising that would be But it certainly helps the narrative of the euro at the moment Which is benefiting from the weaker dollar and so could act as a catalyst for a push up higher And we are testing in the euro. Don't forget up at around Those those highs we saw at the end of last week, which could open up a higher move up to 122 50 Then going into the afternoon, um you have Well, these are revisions as far as building permits and we can skip over there None of this data is really that market moving until we get to new home sales coming out the u.s That'll be at 3 p.m. This afternoon Just quickly wanted to show you the last new home sales report we had For the month of march. It came in at 1.02 million That was in fact the highest reading that we've had since August of 2006 Now as you can see here, there's almost like a depressed number Against the rising trend And then it's massive Monster figure that came out last month now Whenever you see data like that what I try to encourage people to do Is if you ever see an anomaly like a piece of data that's a real outlier Statistical outlier against consensus or the historical price pattern Ask yourself why Why is that figure so high and isn't it a bit weird that that previous one's so low and actually You know, obviously when you're in markets week to week month to month, you know, you already know the answer but the point being is is that use that kind of inquisitiveness To get to the bottom then of trying to judge what type of number we're going to see today And if actually look at the number today, it's expected at 998 000 so you could say That number puts us back here and that kind of normalizes us over these last 10 readings, for example Now the actual backstory here is that february was so low because if you think about new home sales Think about the adverse weather conditions that are experienced in texas And in the south in north america in february That was when we had the kind of great freeze if you like so new home sales Obviously were impacted significantly But those people who still wanted a new home still wanted a new home when the weather passed And so therefore they just went back a few weeks later when the weather was better And so therefore anything that was going to come out in february just got bumped and pushed into march if you actually Divide though total and divide them by two we've pretty much got the same a steady reading of around 950 to 970 let's say of which we're going to expect again today so This figure i don't think particularly is that that important but just wanted to talk you through The kind of just Context is always quite key with interpreting these dates and making that judgment call is important Why was it so strong? Can it be that strong again the answer to that is probably not all right Other than that what else have you got api all inventory numbers coming out later on this evening as usual speaker wise Couple of interesting ones beds ebbons barking And qualis is speaking later on at 2 40 1 o'clock and 3 p.m. London time They are all fed voting members And then you've got the chief economist philip lane of the ecb speaking this afternoon at 3 p.m And bank of england member on the npc sylvia 10 raro speaking at 5 p.m. All right, that is it so I'll see you guys in the discord chat room if you're not in the discord chat room Get in there. You've just got to go to amplify live.com There is a free option to join our community chat room. We'd also have a pro chat room But check it out. All right guys. Have a good day, and I'll see you later on. Thanks very much