 Hey everybody, my name is Josh Levitan. I'm the senior instructor of Cybertrading University and here I'm going to break down everything happening within the crypto space and in particular Bitcoin. I know that a lot of folks are kind of in hysteria and wondering where Bitcoin is going to drop down to if this is the end of the drop-off and if it's going to begin to push back up at this point. Are we still in a bull market? What to watch out for across the next three to six months. So I'm kind of here to break down everything for you right now. Now before we go any further, just do me a quick favor. If you enjoy crypto education, stock market education in general, make sure to like and subscribe right to our YouTube channel here, youtube.com slash CybertradingU. And at the end of this video, if you wanted to learn more about what we offer at Cybertrading University, just go right down to our website on the link on the banner below of this video to get yourself started. Now when it comes to the analysis of Bitcoin, there's a bunch of different avenues that we could look to take. I'm going to cover a few different points here and to begin, no better place to start than just basic charting and support resistance. So for right now, just take note that you can see from back at the end of 2020, Bitcoin ended up breaking its all-time high right around 18,000 and change at the time. I drew lines right off of 20, as well as this consolidation area here at 19.5. From that point, of course, you could see Bitcoin took off. It ended up topping off right around major resistance around 40 to 41,000, ended up then breaking out higher later on right around April-May time of 2021 topped off right around 65,000 before it pulled back, but look where it ended up holding support over time. You could see here this next larger red line created a major support off of 29, roughly 30,000. So you could see where some of the thicker red lines created the bigger levels and some of the smaller dashed red lines are actually the midway points between those key support resistances. One talking point is actually from back in early to mid-September. We ended up seeing Bitcoin top off right around 50 to 5, and then going into early to late December, pretty much throughout the end of last year, ended up holding right back under that same peak, that 50 to 5 area. That's actually the midway point right between 65 and 40,000. So from that point, ended up holding that midway as a major resistance before it dropped off. And actually, as we're watching this live across the last 8 to 12 hours, we ended up seeing Bitcoin drop as low as under 34,000, but it's actually still kind of holding above the midway point line between 40 and 29,000 major support across 2021. Dipping into the technicals aspect of trading, I'm a big fan of EMAs in particular, especially with Bitcoin, with as volatile as it is. So on the 4-hour chart, what I'll show here to begin is the 100 EMA, and then the 200, and then lastly the 500. So for right now, you could see Bitcoin strayed pretty far away from all of these, and in particular recently, the 100 EMA, it's really started to kind of stray away from, accelerate from at least here. The last time it did that was back in the beginning of December, where it ended up beginning to break under the 500 here, after a couple of different tests of breaking support, it re-broke the 500 here and then led to a bigger shake. Well, from that point, you could see it ended up leading to a nice squeeze back up at first. So will this acceleration from the 100 EMA lead to a similar squeeze back up? This time, I'm not really led to believe so, and the reason I say that is because, well, dipping into a more macro chart in terms of the daily, you could see the 500 EMA was holding really well going into the summer of 2021, going into the end of last year, but most recently ended up breaking under the 500 EMA heading into January. So, you know, we were calling this out in our live trading room just the fact that this would begin to pull back towards the 500 EMA once again and perhaps begin to break under it a bit. Now, where I was personally wrong with that was the fact that I thought this break of the 500 EMA, I didn't think it would be as extensive as we're seeing right now. I thought that we would tend to see a bit of a break under it, probably a bit of chop and consolidation for a little while, and then for it to begin to slam back up and begin to resume the bull rally. So, I was clearly wrong with that, but what I want to show on that is, well, we have to improvise. And, you know, it's not just me saying that I'm wrong. It's the fact that, well, once we happen to see a major support level break, we would expect that major support to turn into resistance. Look what happened going back into mid-May when Bitcoin ended up breaking under the 100, then eventually the 200 EMAs, it ended up holding the 200 as resistance for a little while for just over the next month and a half, two months. And then you could see heading back into this year, we ended up seeing Bitcoin begin to break under the 500, leads me to speculate that with as big of a drop as we're seeing here under the 500, that I would only anticipate the 500 EMA to act as resistance over time. So, you know, that's where I say with such a big drop, you know, even if it does begin to push back up here, I think it's going to be a little while before it ends up showing true strength and, you know, a real push back above this red line here, the 500 EMA. Now, one of our key philosophies at Cybertron University is to follow the smart money, to follow the big money, to follow the big institutions and market makers out there that are driving an equity up or down. So for that, we tend to look at order books, look at the interaction between the buy and sell orders, as well as once they tend to get filled, we read the tape, you know, old school ticker tape, reading the time and sales window. So recently there's been a website that I ended up finding across crypto Twitter called Trading Light, and this website provides a nice heat map in relation to the orders that are presently out there across the bid in the ask. So we'll tend to make new videos across this year, you know, showing how this website works, how this platform works in particular, but here's what I'd like to show. And, you know, this is a bit of concern for my end here. We ended up seeing, going back into the end of 2020, beginning of 2021, not only Bitcoin take off and skyrocket here once it broke, it's all time high. But we ended up seeing major players out there stack the bid up, these major orders on the bid, you know, practically every, you know, a few hundred dollars or maybe every fifty dollars, if that, these dashed red lines here that you could see create major levels of support. So these are orders for around 200 to 300 Bitcoin, and perhaps even more right here at 246 and change, you could see just over 500 Bitcoin at that price level, and it's there for an extended period of time. You know, notice how far, how long these horizontal lines extend to. So you could see for, you know, about a month or so, those orders were out there presently on the FTX futures order book. Well, it ended up pushing Bitcoin up quite a bit. Over time, though, we stopped seeing that support, and that's okay if we happen to see continuous buying interest as we happen to see orders from the S getting filled. But eventually, once we happen to see the orders from the S stop getting filled, once we happen to see less interest from the buyers out there. If there's not as much support showing from the bid, that's what's going to allow more of a freefall. So we ended up still seeing some more local, you know, volume on the bid around 54-2 here at the time, 55 as it was still pushing up. But off of this major shake, I wanted to show you this because this was pretty interesting to me. We ended up seeing more support continue to show on Bitcoin on the bid. Again, this is the FTX futures order book that we're looking at. But right around 50,000, 51,052, just about, we're still seeing big support of around 300 plus Bitcoin at a lot of these price levels here. Well, over time, heading back into the end of November, early December, we ended up seeing those orders getting pulled, right? And over time, just a few days later, we ended up seeing Bitcoin create this big drop where it ended up dropping down as low as 41,000, right? So, you know, from that point, what's happened? We ended up seeing more support begin to show here right around the 40 level here and just under. But over time, part of those orders ended up getting pulled, part of those orders ended up getting hit, and we haven't really seen much support since. We haven't seen really any major support pop up over the last couple of weeks. You know, perhaps right around here at 33.3 now, you know, this is a daily chart here on trading lights. So you could see some support beginning to develop beginning from the back from the beginning of January here right around 33.3, 33.5 or so. So if we happen to see more stack up there, perhaps I'd be a little bit more convinced of a potential support level building. But otherwise, there's not much else out there that's looking that, you know, not much of a big support as far as the bid, as far as the bid. So this will leave you to ask where will Bitcoin continue to drop down to, especially if this fails to hold its support right around this 33, 33.5 area. So that's where we could take more of a macro look and look more towards the monthly chart actually for this. And for anyone that first started buying Bitcoin when it was around 50,000, 60 obviously, or even right around 40, you're not going to be too happy with what I'm going to show you here. So hopefully this does not happen, but I'm preparing myself emotionally and financially at least for this. So should we happen to, you know, have this as our bull market top? And to be transparent, I certainly was not expecting myself for 69,000 to be the bull market top within the cycle, much like a lot of us within the crypto space, crypto Twitter space, that is. You know, you research and do your analysis and, you know, study a lot of folks that do their analysis and they were expecting Bitcoin to top off over 100K. And that's what I was expecting at least in saying throughout our afternoon meetings in our live trading room. So, hey, let's improvise. Let's, you know, anticipate for this to be the top. What if this is the top? Well, let's see what history says because the last time Bitcoin topped off back at the end of December of 2017, it ended up topping off right around 19,000, 19,6. And it pulled back all the way down towards an eventual low here at the time of just over 31,300. So that actually made for an 84% pullback or retracement off that high. And if you go back towards 2014 here where Bitcoin first made its, you know, major top right over 1,000 bucks, it topped off at 1163 here at the time, what ended up dropping as low as 15240. That's actually as low as an 86.7% retracement. So, what would an 85 or 84 or 86% retracement look like if 69,000 here is the top? Well, I did a little calculation and that line, let me just draw that for you here. That line, 85, 84, 86%, roughly that's going to be right around 11,000, 10,067 here. That number actually represents an 85.41% retracement from the $69,000 price here. Why 85.41%? That's actually the average between these two. So, you know, just to say at least if history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin drop as low as around 10, 11,000. So, you know, I wouldn't be too much for the fan of that myself as I've been buying Bitcoin from, I think, 8,900 beginning from here and accumulating over time. You know, I was buying when Bitcoin was right around 55,000, you know, 56,000. When it pulled back to 41,000, I told a lot of us inside our live trading room that I was buying at that time and I did. So, trust me, I'm not going to be a fan of that move should that come to fruition. But otherwise, though, in terms of looking at some of the EMAs on the monthly chart, look at the 100. The 100 EMA here is in orange and with Bitcoin just kind of beginning to trade back from 2011, you know, the 100 EMA here is just kind of beginning to show dating back to November of 2019 and it has never been tested yet. So, as far as a major support level in terms of an EMA, the 100 EMA on the monthly would have to be, in my opinion, a major support level to watch over time. So, for right now, that 100 EMA is just right around 14,000, 14,141. So, over time as Bitcoin begins to drop, we should expect to see that act as a key support level in the near future. Lastly, in terms of a technical that I want to show and just quickly go over before we finish this video, you know, basic RSI right here on the bottom, but also what's called the TSI, the True Strength Index, something that I've been using across the last two to three months myself with certain crypto swing plays. But it combines very well with the MACD and the RSI. It's basically a combination of them both. But with kind of using these two together, I want to show where, you know, you could have identified a strong bottom within Bitcoin across the last, you know, five to ten years here. So, with the TSI, simply note just when we happen to see this begin to kind of hit this bottom right around, I guess the value is negative 20, that's when Bitcoin began to kind of bottom out here. And when the blue line ended up beginning to break over the red, that's when we really began to see, you know, the bounce begin to build here within Bitcoin. And the same thing happens going back into the beginning of 2019, end of 2018, beginning of 2019, when the TSI ended up bottoming out right around that same valuation, right around negative 19-ish, negative 20 or so here. And then shortly after, once the blue line crossed over the red, that typically does signal more of a bullish reversal or at least more of a reversal off the bottoms there to see a bit of a move back up. So, using that with the RSI as the RSI itself ended up kind of hitting 30 oversold area. Again, on a monthly chart, this is something to put more weight on. Using an RSI on a four-hour chart, an hourly chart, a six-hour chart even daily, it's not going to be as resourceful as it would be on a monthly. So, pretty interesting to see once the RSI here bottomed out right around 30, we ended up seeing Bitcoin begin to make its bottom here and then eventually bounce. So, what's to watch for between the RSI and TSI? Well, RSI right now is right around 40, closing in just under right now. So, we'll have to wait towards officially the end of this month here, the next eight to nine days roughly before we see the RSI on the January close here. But otherwise, it's to say that with the TSI, I would like to see this begin to pull back more right around negative 19, negative 20, where it previously bottomed out back from 2019 and back from 2015 here even. So, that's something I'm personally watching out for across the next two, three, four months. With the way the overall market is moving, the major US indices, if we happen to see continuation within the NASDAQ and the S&P, I'd only anticipate Bitcoin to follow it, whether it continues to move faster on the way down with those or whether it kind of holds its strength as everything is dropping off. We'll kind of monitor everything and see what happens over time. But in terms of at least anticipating this to be the potential top within the bull market, notice how long it took for Bitcoin to hit its bottom. It was just about a year and a month or so. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve. Twelve bar sequence from peak to bottom here, right? So, if 69,000 here was the top dating back to November of 2021, right here indicates just about a year later. So, in the anticipation of 69,000 being the absolute top for right now, perhaps we can anticipate the bottom to be right around November of 2022. And if history repeats itself, that bottom could be right around 10, 11,000, roughly an 85 or so percent retracement from that peak. I don't mean to scare anyone when I show this information, folks, because, again, I've been accumulating Bitcoin back from April of 2020 myself when it was just pushing 10,000. So, I certainly don't hope for this to be the case, but I want to educate everyone else out there, especially those that are new to not just crypto, but just managing their money, putting their money in positions that, ultimately, hey, you control your money, but you don't control the ticker that you invest in, right? Bitcoin is, or was, a trillion-dollar asset. And at this point right now, there's plenty of other folks that know a lot more about Bitcoin than you do, than I do myself. So, we have to just think about all options as far as if Bitcoin continues to kind of bottom out. Hey, guys, I appreciate you taking the time to watch this video. If you wanted to learn more about what we offer here at Cybertrading University, again, you can go right down to the link on the banner below of the video just to get yourself started on a small trial to our live trading room. But otherwise, just make sure to like and subscribe right to our YouTube channel, youtube.com slash CybertradingU. I'm going to try and make a new video like this every month or so just to kind of give you a quick recap as to my thoughts and analysis of Bitcoin as we continue to track the volatility and its price. I wish everybody out there the best in trading, and please stay safe.