 So welcome to the weekly charting analysis with Simsie Markets. We've got the risk warning on the screen. We're going to make our way through that. Definitely an interesting week last week. Sort of a big drop-off in the dollar and a little bounce back when there was the non-farm payrolls on Friday. Difficult time for stock markets but semblance of a recovery in oil and definitely a massive rally in gold which is continuing again today. So definitely a lot of things going on. I think the way we'll do things here is we'll just work our way through the industries, effects and commodities and if there's any extra sort of non-core products that you're interested in or any side questions let me know any time and we can get into that. Now I'd say the thing, you know, the topics affecting global stock markets are the same broadly that they've been the whole of this year, mainly the sell-off in oil prices, concerned about China's economy and the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve policy, US interest rate policy. I wanted to bring up very straight away here. When we're talking about prominent stock markets, the DAX is right up there, the German DAX, one of the most popularly traded index at CMC markets. Also well-watched in terms of European equities obviously just because the German economy is the largest economy in Europe. So top 30 companies in Germany not faring so well right now. We've dropped through this 200-day moving average. You can see here that's happening today and that follows a drop through this fairly significant support area from November 30th and October. So hold on, I'm talking about from December 2014 and August 2015 and September 2015 and then we had a little brief bounce in January and now we're dropping through it. We closed below it last week and now we're continuing that decline down into the 9,000 level which we haven't been at 9,000 since 2014. So hitting some multi-year lows here in the German DAX and this is significant technical developments here. We've had on this longer-term weekly chart that we're looking at, we've had lower highs being formed throughout most of 2015, going on again in this year, but the support has been holding. Now it's not holding, it's given way. Now these things aren't perfect obviously. We've got another layer of support just below 9,000 from these lows back in 2013 and 14 and obviously this big spike flow down in October 2014. Imagine, that's a fairly significant level. I can imagine us getting some kind of bounce from that but a lot of people pay attention to this 200-day moving average. It's a widely watched stock index. It's a bearish omen. Now we could obviously get a bounce back close above the 200-day, get a good rally from here. That's entirely feasible but this is a significant development even if that were to occur. In terms of Germany we do have, in terms of maybe looking at the German DAX and even the Euro, we do have a bit of German economic data this week, German industrial production tomorrow on Tuesday and German GDP and CPI at least on Friday. But really we do want to know generally how the European economy is doing and acceleration and deceleration and the growth outlook certainly impacts things on a broader level. We're in the same environment as the central bankers that are dictating the state of play. Now if we do jump over to the Euro, since I mentioned those economic data releases, I'm going to jump around a bit here but let's talk about what's relevant. So obviously we talked about a big sell-off in the dollar. That was very evident in this breakout from this triangle pattern. In the Euro-US dollar we rallied all the way up to 112, getting a pullback now down to just short of 111. What was notable was that the Euro on one of the days, well it was Thursday, rallied despite really quite determined comments from ECB President Mario Draghi to try and talk the currency down. I say talk the currency down, but he was inferring strongly that there would be some extra monetary stimulus at the March meeting for the European Central Bank. The typical result from that in the past has been that the Euro would drop off on the prospect of further quantitative easing lower interest rates. Didn't this time? Entirely dictated by diminished prospects for rate rises this year in the US, the dollar dropped off and that dropped off in the dollar superseded any potential weakness in the Euro. So we had this big move higher where we moved over 100 pips on the day despite those commentaries from Mario Draghi. So it reduced the influence of the ECB here, which is interesting. Now not only that, but I believe it was the prior day on Wednesday so where we saw the big breakouts of the Euro up to above 111 after having been meandering below 110 for months. Also in Dolly Yen, we saw this big breakdown in the Dolly Yen. So the same thing happened is that we had Bank of Japan Governor Karoda saying that he could easily see an expansion in quantitative easing and further cut of interest rates further into the negative. So they just cut interest rates to the negative in Japan. He was saying they could do it even further into the negative and said they could buy more assets. And keep in mind the Bank of Japan already owns 40% of JDBs, the Japanese bond market. So they're trying to push the pedal to the metal, these other foreign bankers, but they're not having the effect they want because the desire there would be to weaken the yen from Karoda. Obviously we can see from this timber that took place here, that was not what happened. Actually the yen strengthened quite significantly and if we pull this chart out to the weekly chart, we can see that we're at a pretty significant level in Dolly Yen. And it's in a way no surprise that we're seeing similar, we're at similar significant levels on the dowel, we're at similar significant levels on the backs which we just broke because these are barometers for a sort of risk. Dolly Yen tends to move in sync with the Nikkei which moves broadly in sync with other developed stock markets. So we're right here on this support. You know, if there's 116 breaks and FYI, I did do a currency snapshot video on this last week, you know, if there's 116 breaks then there's not a lot stopping us from getting down to 110 where we had that peak in September 2004. So this has been a very much a range band environment and of course we're always susceptible to false breakouts. It's probably, you know, a default assumption that probably it would be the false breakout to start with but that's not to say it can't eventually push down and I would say like a close bill for the day and then the week below 116 is definitely a big bearish development for this Dolly Yen chart. And look, the momentum's been down for a long time now. So we're just, the price is starting to catch up with the momentum at this point. Now I would mention Japanese data, I don't think there's too much significance this week but to be honest with you, it's not really that that's driving this pair at the moment. It's the expectations of relative monetary policy and kind of risk on, risk off attitude towards equities and other risky assets. Now since I'm almost just looking at the biggest movers and the biggest critical levels at the moment, I'm just going to jump straight to gold because this has been the one to play in the last couple of weeks. It's fired higher. So if we get some perspective on this, downward sloping trend on the longer term charts here. But you see, we've alluded to it before in these webinars, there was a false break below this previous low. We've got to push down there but we really didn't make any headway below it, made a lower low but barely. And so once we got back above that line again, which is about the 107, 273 area, we pushed right back up to the previous highs basically. That's where we find ourselves at the moment. So if we jump down to this daily chart again, we can see that it's basically between this peak here, which we've managed to close above, got a drop back down through. This was, I've taken off the chart now. It's lost its significance but kind of like this breakdown area here is where we found support. Kind of this low here, something like that. Using this, this is the prior box that I had on the chart, which basically got a pullback into that box now pushing up higher again in gold. And it doesn't look like there's going to be too much in the way of stopping gold getting up to maybe test this big reversal level here. It could be a struggle to initially get through that, but let's see what was the higher on that day. It was about, it was 1183, pretty much on the money. It's going to be a difficult level to get through. And obviously just above that, we have the round number 1190. Just short of it, we have the 1180. So it's that 1180, as I mentioned in the chart forum here, 1180 to 90 zone is a pretty significant resistance. But the trend is in, the short term trend is pretty much in gold's favor at the moment. We're making higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. We're above the 200-day moving average. But this is basically a failed down trend. And so you'd imagine probably somewhere up here, we're going to get a failed attempt at an uptrend, especially since we're below this long-term trend line here. And we're probably just going to find ourselves in a kind of choppy sideways market until we can make some more determined break to the topside. What would catalyze that break to the topside? Significantly reduced chances of U.S. rate rises this year and probably just an all-out sell-off in stock markets. But if that sell-off in stock markets happens, gold could get caught up in it as well. I would suspect not as much, though, as happened in the last big sell-off in gold that pretty much called the top to sort of 2000. I don't think it's going to be so susceptible to sell-offs in equities as it was then because it's not a favorable asset that everyone's made a lot of money from back then. A lot of people were long gold, and that was one of their few profitable positions. And when the market started to tank, they saw it off gold alongside it. This time, you know, no one's sitting in any big, long gold winds. It's obviously not far off multi-year lows, which is a kind of short-covering rally off multi-year lows at the moment. So it may act as a good hedge, and it has so far this year against the volatility that we've seen in equity markets. So if we move over to U.S. stock markets, the big event of the week is Janet Yellen's testimony to the U.S. Congress. The first day is on Wednesday, the second day is Thursday. Normally it's all about the Wednesday, what she says initially with regards to the U.S. economy, any hints she makes at monetary policy. Based on our Fed statement, I would suggest she's probably not going to give too much away. They're staying very data-driven. My suspect she's not going to really try and highlight too many big risks, because I think that's probably less left-done to the meeting minutes and to the press conferences relating to the Fed. But nonetheless, normally it's worth watching because she's obviously such an important figure. And she could say something of interest, but normally it's just lawmakers grilling her on pretty unrelated issues to monetary policy. So it's a risk-packed term. We're probably going to be chopping around waiting for that. We've just broken below this rising trend line here on the U.S. 30. Obviously there's some concerns ahead of this, but if nothing much different is said, it just leads us in the same state of uncertainty that we are now with probably not much extra information. A general state of play of things in U.S. stocks is that if we pull up to this weekly chart, you can see this was the low from September. We got a false break through that low. We basically found support about this significant line here. This is 15-350. It's kind of equivalent to the German DAX level that we've already broken through. So some underperformance from European shares at the moment, U.S. stocks relatively outperforming. That may not last long because some of the best performing U.S. stocks took an absolute hammering on Friday. Not sure if everyone saw that LinkedIn, the professional social network, so a few of your profiles on there, their shares tanked 40% on Friday in just one day. And obviously that has been, not for a while, but was at one point one of the high fliers, and it definitely had its effects on the other big tech sector stocks out there, like Facebook and Apple and Twitter. Twitter's obviously already fallen off a cliff, and Apple does appear to have topped out. So these big growth stocks that had allowed the U.S. stock market to outperform not doing so well at the moment. If they continue to fall, they'll probably bring the overall U.S. stock market down with them. So that's a state of play here. I've drawn this line in to give us a little sense as to the general bias of things, but I think if we can hold above this low here, then we're pretty much in a sideways market, but it's choppy. We made a breakout here, made a higher high. We dipped a little bit further than you'd want in a healthy uptrend. You'd want to find support here. We dipped right down here. Couldn't get through the highs. Now we're dipping down again to the low. So really no trend at the moment. So when it's a no-trend situation, look at your overall bias. Mine at the moment based on these weekly trend lines and this 200-day DMA is still to the downside. So it's when it's a choppy range bound environment, you know, you almost want to take more kind of speculative attempts at the top of the range for selling. When you get to the bottom of the range, chances for buying, but then again, of course, you're going against that overall bias that you might have. Look at the UK 100. Similar little trend line that didn't have too much base. It's just two points on it, but we've seen a big sell-off through there today. This, so when it comes to technical patterns, they don't always play out, obviously. But what can be used for if you are willing to change, you know, your viewpoint quickly is that say here, this could be argued to have been a inverse head and shoulders. Not perfect, but then they never are. Could call that 610, the neckline, got a good push through there, but then just failed ever since and dropped back through it. That failure of that inverse head and shoulders pattern is a strong bearish sign in itself, because we had a bullish sign, but that was immediately knocked out. So that failure of a bullish sign is actually quite a nice strong bearish sign. You know, even if you took a break even or even a loss on that, on the breakout of this pattern, you know, if you're able to kind of turn your thinking around and think, okay, it's failed now. This has changed the dynamic. Let's look for opportunities to sell. You know, obviously with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that would have been the way to go. So we're right now testing the low of the year, and the low of the year is significant. You know, for those of you attending before, we've already looked at this a little extensively. You know, it's the level back in November 2012. It's four-year lows, sorry, three-and-a-bit year lows in the 50-100. And we've got a few layers of support down there beneath, but you know, certainly not indicative of any real strength in the market. We're going to look at the euro. I don't believe we look to the pound. So we had a nice breakout in the pound after a massive sell-off that began in December, most of the way through January. We've had a bit of a bounce back. Pretty much all dollar-related, and now that the dollar appears to have, predominantly to short-term bottom, you know, we've seen a bit of a top in the pound. And it has given way a couple hundred pips now or more from that peak. And so this, to me, where we had all these, where we had these massive swings the day after day, we've eventually got the breakout, the retest, and then the opportunity to buy up to the previous long-term swing low here, and we've failed from there. That's kind of what's happened. And given that it's not, you know, we've had absolutely no signals from the Bank of England that they're looking to raise rates anytime soon, and we've always got this lingering Brexit threat that's not, in itself, is really a threat necessarily, but it's a bit of a source of uncertainty and could weigh on the Bank of England on whether they decide to raise rates or not. Those combined, not really much strength in the pound. So, you know, while this dollar remains a little bit stronger since those payrolls on Friday, we can expect the pound to be a little bit weaker. So, this breakout level would be, to me, the next logical area of support. Dolly Yen, we've looked at. Okay, so obviously crude down again today. We did actually finish last week, you know, not as positively as it initially looked like it might have been, so we did finish those last two days lower. So, now, looking at Brent, we kind of find ourselves in a situation where we pushed higher and weren't able to take out that high to make another higher high. This was significant support from back in December, so we basically support turned into resistance. We dropped back. We haven't been able to push through that resistance yet. My feeling is that probably if this big push higher wasn't enough to kind of capitalise people to want to jump in, then we're probably going to have to drift through that low. I'm probably down close to $30 a barrel again. And that $30 to me really is the kind of pivot. Well, we're above there. There's some optimism that we've got a bottom. Well, below, we start attracting a few more momentum sellers to the downside and we could actually push to below those multi-year lows. Looking at the general trend, you know, the bias is still very much to the downside. So, even if we are in a kind of slight basing scenario, there's still going to be everyone jumping on the momentum and bandwagon to the downside. Well, technically, we're still very much in the downtrend. And gold we've already touched on a bit. So, unless there were any other questions near at the end here, I think probably best to call it a day. So good luck with trading this week. Big event is the Janet Yellen's testimony on Wednesday. We've got a few important, obviously on the same day, we've got oil inventories. One thing I didn't notice at last week, we've got a big rally even though there was a big stock inventory build. So, you know, look how oil markets react to that inventories data. If we get another build in U.S. weekly inventories, but nonetheless oil rallies, another sign we've got a potential bottom in oil, that could be good for equities. We're below this 200 DMA on the backs. You know, let's look how we can progress past that. And otherwise, good luck with trading. And thanks very much for attending. Jasper Law was running out.