 The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now David White. Welcome all to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour with me, your squeezibly soft host. Once more, do we meet at the appointed time? The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Well, what do we have going on? Well we had a light volume retest of the previous selling climax around $37.50. That had about 18 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated volume. We're far from that today, about 7.4 billion shares. So is it half? It'll be 16. So we're not even halfway there at 207. So we're probably going to have a lot of light volume days, or I mean light volume tests. But my guess, as I said the last couple of days, I figure we're kind of queuing up for a bounce. And if that bounce to I think it's going to be around 4,000 on the S&P cash ends up being lighter, then you have probably a good set up for an ABC on the way down. If we start seeing a little bit more volume come in, that may be kind of a plateau that we hang on to for a while. So I think at least we have a little bit of sunshine coming our way. Don't you knock it off with a negative wedge! Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? Well, I'm saying something righteous and hopeful for a change. And Mad Dog, or Oddball, certainly echoes my sentiments there. So we'll be looking at what I think was a little ray of sunshine going into probably Thursday of next week in a four-day week. We are off on Monday, so markets are not open. But other than that, I don't think there's a lot. Options, at least for Friday's expiration, tend to are starting to auger in like an Alabama tick at $3,800. There's no guarantee you won't get a surprise, but absence of a surprise, that's kind of where this thing is pointing at. As we said before, $38.20 was kind of where I was my target on the puts earlier in the week. And when we got to it, I just went ahead and got out. So you got a little bit more of a dip this morning, but it's going to be on very light volume. It did get down to those previous lows. And we'll see. It doesn't mean that the bear market's over. That would take a lot of effort. It won't happen overnight when it does happen. And I have no idea what would make that happen. I can't think of anything, but that wouldn't be the first time a market didn't do what everybody else thought it was going to do. In the meantime, we have Tim Ord on at 2.15 after the next break in about five, seven minutes. He sent me some charts. If you want those charts at any time, email me, especially into this break, and I'll get them out so you can sit there and study them in all their glorious resolution, native resolution. But just email me at path at tfnn.com, and I'll get those out during the break. And there's some other stuff going on. I think we're going to talk about an individual chart on a monthly he sent me and see what else is happening. I think that's about it. There's a couple things that we've been talking about, and I can't say that it's 100%. But I think it's fairly strong correlation. Unfortunately, it happened at several things. Where is my natural gas? I wanted to look at that. Is it not on this? I don't know why it's not on there. We'll look at the UNG. Crude oil is down about three bucks. We did have a ruling by the Supreme Court, and that ruling pretty much says that the EPA does not have the ability to make laws out of whole cloth from a 1970 low. There is a kind of a thing that they call a, I'm going to, for a short term, I'm going to call it a big deal. And they're saying kind of on the edges, Congress probably will allow you to do a few things. But on the really big things, it better be in a bill passed by Congress if you want to do it, Mr. EPA. They are also a little bit miffed at the EPA for lying about some of the stuff in this, I guess the case is the EPA versus West Virginia. And of course, they're basically Supreme Court saying, hey, you can do anything you want. Just get it passed by the Congress. And of course, running for probably governor of the state is Senator Manchin, and he's probably the linchpin on making sure that none of that gets done. So why we've been in a thing where everybody looked at producers of energy is the lead horse. This may be enough to start moving at least somewhat to those that are in the exploration range, but even some of the other things like natural gas. I know there was a bill, but I'm not thinking that that's all there was. This bill will allow coal plants to continue on. As I said, you'd have to have an act of Congress to thwart it now. But natural gas off 13%, again, start looking for lows in the last two weeks of August seasonally. Natural gas is always fairly weak. I'm not exactly sure if this puts a cap on natural gas going forward. I think a lot of people were sure that a lot of those coal plants were going to go unused and shut down. But you can discuss right and wrong with your priest, but we're in the higher and lower business, and of course more supply generally means lower price. And certainly for natural gas, maybe, unless some of these coal plants are actually forced by an act of Congress to shut down, that may not happen. 877-927-6648. While there's more, as Jimmy in the den brings up, there's more to that ruling. They went about 80% the way that I thought that they would. They didn't just come down and throw a blanket over everybody, but they're pretty much on the line now of saying, you have to use this kind of strict adherence to anything. So the SEC was planning on doing a bunch of stuff without an act of Congress. We've seen the CDC also get thwarted at the Supreme Court level. Probably more government agencies are going to try this, but this is going to be a fast track from now on at the Supreme Court. And if you don't have congressional authority to do something big, you're probably not going to do it. We'll be back in a minute with Kimmel. With booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded as no better place to protect your harder and money-thinning gold. This-the-goals flagship asset is the Moncard Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. 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These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. We are back to a market already in progress over most of these TFNN stations. We're down 12 points on the S&P cash after going down and testing what I think are some recent lows that will probably be on a lighter volume. Dow's down 138, Nasdaq's down 70, Russell's down 4, Crude Oil's down about 3.7 bucks. I was talking about UNG and natural gas and that ruling too. It's off about 13.5% today on that, I think on bigger builds but also the thought that we discussed in the first segment about coal being around a little longer than a lot of people thought. We're going to go to Tim Ord who's on the line. He's written a newsletter for darn near 30 years, if not over 30 years. You can always reach him at Ord-Oracle.com if you want the charts that we're going to talk about. Just email me at pathntfnn.com and I'll make sure those go out during the breaks. Tim's won many awards for Timer of the Year in different facets. We want to welcome once again Tim Ord to the Power Trading Hour. How are you doing today, Tim? Good. Thanks for having me on, Dave. You want to just jump right to the charts or do you want to talk about something else? Well, as much as I want to talk about the Amber Herd Trial, I think we probably can go right on to the charts. We're all about that, right? Anyway, you want to go to chart one? Yeah, chart one. It's kind of a unique indicator. I'm a big fan of panic and I look at a lot of type of panic indicators. A trend is kind of a panic indicator when it gets about 1.5. The ticks are kind of a panic indicator when everybody sells the ticks go down because it measures trays on the uptick and down tick. The VIX is actually a panic indicator and the VVIX also, which is a VIX of the VIX, is another kind of a panic indicator. Anyhow, on this indicator, I'm just looking at the ticks to the VVIX. In other words, when the VIX is going faster up than the VVIX, this ratio goes up. This chart goes back, looks like about a year, maybe a little bit more in a year. Anyhow, I put the RSI to this ratio. When VIX really jumps fast, it's kind of a panic situation. It's kind of like everybody's hitting the sell button. I measure the velocity of the VIX and that worked out pretty well, but it seems to work out better is that ratio of the VIX to the VVIX ratio. When it really shoots up and the RSI gets above 70, it's usually an indication that the market has gone down too quick. If a market kind of drags down, just gently goes down, those are really bad news because that can go on for a while. When a market really jerks down in a very fast fashion, usually they're kind of climatic. A lot of these indicators will explode on you, telling that you're probably near a short term low because you got panic in the market. If you got panic in the market, you're near some sort of a low. I try to develop a lot of indicators on that theory, I guess you might say. Anyhow, this indicator here is updated to today. The RSI is the indicator for the ratio of the VIX to VVIX ratio. Right now, we're around 80 on the RSI. The bottom window is a percent volume or a percent Bollinger band for that. In other words, when it's above one, the VIX ratio is above the upper Bollinger band. When you get those two things to occur, a lot of times at a minimum, usually at least a short term low, if not a bigger low. I went back in history over the last year and find those times when the RSI is above 70 and a percent Bollinger band is above the upper Bollinger band. We reached that here yesterday. Now, the market's down here a little bit today, but it does appear on a short term basis anyhow, that you're making some sort of a low. If you notice, we're going into the 4th of July period. If you ever look back in history, a lot of times the 4th of July period, actually a lot of holidays, mark some type of reversal. So, we may stay down today, maybe, maybe not a whole lot, don't know. And tomorrow will probably become a dead day going into a three to eight weekend. But my indicators suggest that we're making a low in this vicinity, because we do have some panic during the VIX. And actually, even my trend and tick indicators are also being panicked right here. So, we're probably making some sort of a low here. Not saying the mark's going to be up tomorrow. Probably, I don't know, probably won't, because of the three to eight holiday, everybody's probably trying to get out of the market, so they don't have to worry about it over the holiday period. But anyhow, this indicator is a flashing voice. It's not a perfect indicator, but it works the majority of the time, I'll put it that way. So, anyhow, I use it. It doesn't give a lot of signals. You know, you don't get one every week, but you usually get one about it almost every month. And we got one here in mid June, and now we're getting another one in late June. So, the one in April, late April there, that was a failure. Stop, the market climbed down, actually kind of flipped sideways. But after that, it went back down again. That's really the only failure there is. But I'm thinking here, we're making probably a decent important low. And I think we possibly get back to the swing high of May, which is up around that 420 area. I think that's where we're going to go. Then from there, I don't know. But usually in the summer, a lot of times, these are trading range during the summer, and you really get trending markets in the fall. So, I'm thinking, in my opinion, we're probably, that June low is not going to be broken. And we may start a trading range between low, about 380 to 420, probably over the next couple of months. And then maybe September, October, we make a low that basically rallies all into year-end. So, I'm thinking the decline, you know, the massacre we had the first half of the year is pretty much over. Everybody kind of threw in the towel and called it quits. Because I got a lot of different type panic and a lot of different type indicators. So, at least we're going to stabilize here, I think. Well, we'll be back in just a little bit. We've got Tim Ord on the line of the Ord-Oracle.com. When we come back, we'll talk a little bit. Maybe you want to pull up a chart of the spies while we're doing it. I'm kind of looking at kind of a blowout that kind of, we came back into the trading range. Now, we're kind of back over to these days where we did have some huge volume on the 13th and pretty much through the 15th of June. And maybe- So, we're going to take advantage of this sector. Now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software, get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. As we return, getting more charts out here, those are the questions. If they want these at home, to mark up any way you choose, we've got Tim Orrd on the line and we're going to come back. Did you get a chance to pull up the spies there and look at what I'm looking at here? Yeah, I just sent you a chart. Okay. I don't know if you can pull it up. I can. Let's see. Hang on. Give me a second and I'll have it up here with all of our other wonderful charts. Okay, open. Why? Probably didn't name it anything. Okay. So we've got that up in front of the buddy. All right. I was talking about ticks and trend here a little bit ago and there's some blue numbers on the chart. I just go back to the June low. I got 2.88 and 745, but 2.88 is a trend close and 745 is a down tick close for that day. And the market kind of went sideways for a couple of days and fell again and he had a 2.88 and a minus 838. Well, that's another again, the trend close at 2 that day and 838 down tick rings. Those are pretty rare signals, especially you get 2 in a row like that. You think, well, that first one failed. No, it didn't. Actually, the second one just add power to the first. And so you got to rally up, market went up for, you know, four or five days there. And I think all we're doing right now is going down and testing last Friday's gap. You know, that's my conclusion. And if you look at trend today, see where we are. We got a 2.21 trend right now. And so the trend's really kind of just blowing out here over the last, you know, a week or a couple of weeks here. And it's all coming around the 365 to 380 area give or take. Every time you get down in this level, the trend starts to explode. Well, that's just a support range. I've seen this in the past over the years. So when the trend actually explodes in a certain price range over numerous days, usually that's a massive support. So I'm thinking important, according to the ticks and trend right here, I think an important, your midterm lows forming in this range, because that's where all the panic's forming right between, you know, 365 to 380 area. And you know, we're only down here on the, on the S&Ps, you know, less than a half a point. And you got a trend right now at 2.23. You know, if the market was down, you know, 2, 3% or something like that, maybe that trend over two would be justifiable. But, you know, we're, we're not even down a half percent. And the trend's totally blown out here. So I'm thinking this is probably a low here. I'm not sure what tomorrow's going to bring. But you know, we're finishing going down. So I think the next upside target, I got a, you know, scenario there to 420, I think, and we're going to go back up to that late May, early June highs and have to see what's going on there. So, you know, I thought this was kind of important. This kind of also goes with my VIX and VVIX ratio thing. It's just another added panic situation. But you don't get panic. You don't have a bottom. If you got panic, you're looking at a low. So, you know, since we got panic, we're looking at a low. Well, I was going to say that you kind of a Johnny come lately to the tick and trend is you, you only wrote your article, what, in 1993 on this? So it's good. We're almost 30 years down the road on using the tick and trend to actually buy lows and highs and sell highs, I guess. Yeah. Yeah. Stocks and commodities. I'm sorry. Go ahead. I was going to say, I think it was a stocks and commodities article, wasn't it? About 1993? Yeah, way back there. Yeah, I wrote several articles for them and it kind of started off with just ticks alone. Then later on, I added the trend to it. And it's kind of a good confirmation to have both in your, I guess, pocket when you get both blown out at the same time, you got something that you got to pay attention to. So, and we have that now. So, so I'm thinking something important here is going on. You know, I don't, I think for the year, I think this is probably the low for the year, my opinion. But, you know, could be wrong, been wrong before. So, but this is kind of a usual situation where you get these trends consistently high for the last couple of weeks and previous times, that was usually important low. So, we'll see. But yeah, I wrote that back in a long time ago. So, I still use it, kind of got away from it. And I came back to it because it was, you know, really a reliable. So, if you ever see these big declines that continue down, a lot of times, you don't see any panic as Marcus, you know, they're, you know, evidently the small investor is buying that decline to keep these ticks and trend in check that don't show panic. Because when you, when everybody heads to the exit door, you know, these two indicators that ticks and trend explode. And that's what you want to do. So, it kind of transfers the money from one second from the dumb money to the smart money, I guess you might say. And that that ticks and trend helps signal when that happens. So, it's a pretty good indicator. It's worked over time. And I kind of label them here so you can see what's going on. So, you know, yeah, it's a good indicator to use. So, good. Now, if you want to go to chart two now, all right, chart two, this is a chart two is a first chart three chart. Okay, chart two, this is arms again. The top window is a 10 day average of the arm. This, this chart goes back to 2013. And it's pretty rare. It doesn't happen very often. But so this chart goes back nine years. And the top window is a 10 day average of the trend. And it's pretty rare to get above 1.5. But when it does, it's usually an important low. And so we had it back in 2019. It was kind of a minor low. We had it back in 2016. That looked like it was probably some major low. And at the June low, the 10 day got over 1.5. And actually the five day, the two day and the three day all got over into maximum territory. So that's the reason why I think this is more of an intermediate term low than a just a short term low, because we got so much panic going on here. So it's a, it's a longer term indicator. So it's meant to pick out the intermediate term, at least the 10 day trend does. So since we got panic on the 10 day trend, it's a bigger timeframe. There's a base at least forming here. In my opinion, the intermediate term low situation. So if the market does go up here and we get extreme optimism to counterbalance the extreme negativity we had or the extreme panic we had in the, these indicators, that may neutralize it. But if the market kind of goes up gradually and the ticks and trend kind of remain on the bullish side, it'll probably just continue. I hear you, I hear the music. So we'll talk next time around. Right. We'll be back in a few minutes with Tim. We got a couple more charts to go. And that's it. All price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future, call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com. That's 727-329-8322. Call us today. The technology around us is changing every day. 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We're on chart number two, Tim, and we have about five people asking for you to comment on gold before this segment is out. But we have this chart and one more to get to and maybe even another. So we're going to need to step it up a bit. Two, I think we just went over. That's at 10-day arms. Yep. Okay, so you're done with that? Yeah, we're done with that. Okay. Take a look at chart three and you got it up. I do. All right. This is the American Association of Individual Investors, Bold Bear Ratio, and that's that center chart. And it's pretty right. I got a mark there. This is a June 28th reading, which is 0.31. And it's only been that low, I think three times going back to 2007. And it's kind of hard to see, but I put all that that blue line on the American Association of Individual Investors, Bold Bear Ratio is at 0.40 reading. And we hit it once in May low. We hit it again in the June low. So we got actually two readings there. They're kind of not believing that anyhow, what they're saying here is everybody's pretty much on the bearish side. So you want everybody really to be bearish. It's not really a panic reading, but it's a cement reading because nobody's really interested in the stock market right now. If they're in it, they're in a small way or probably even short. But previous times when we got this low, you're at least, at minimum, midterm low. And in most cases, you're at a midterm low. And so it's kind of unusual to get this low. And last, like I said, on June 28th, we were 0.31. And so it's pretty extreme to be this low. So I think this carries a lot of weight and adds to that bullish trend and tick reading along with the VIX and VVIX ratio thing. There's a lot of stuff saying that some important low is being made here. So when you get very few people to agree with what you're talking about, usually you're right. So I'm a big bull, nobody likes to hear it, but there's a lot of indicators out there that says that at least at a minimum, we're going to go sideways here. Not down, either sideways or up. And we have a slide forth coming in there. So go ahead, I'm sorry. I was going to say, I always like what Mark Twain said, which is, when everybody has one opinion, it's time to pause and reflect. Right. And that's a good point because we're, ever right now, according to this bull bear ratio thing going on, everybody has that same opinion, which is basically be out of the market or short or something like that. So there's very few people, according to the bull bear ratio here, is agreeable that an important low is being made here. So that's the reason why I said, you know, about 15 minutes ago, I'm thinking this is more than a short term low. It looks like an immediate term low. And I actually, I'm personally thinking we're not even going to go back down to that mid June low and test it. I think that's probably the low for the year, but I've been wrong before. So, but there's a lot of indicators suggest that. So this is another good indicator that pretty much has stood the time, the test of time going back. So, and this indicator doesn't really get a lot of signals, you know, maybe get one or two a year at most. And you never really get this low, something as low as happened last time it happened is 2020. And before that was 2016. So it's kind of important here what goes on. So anyhow, just another indicator. We can go on to another chart if we got time. We certainly do, but we got a wedge gold in and I got a lot of people asking me about that. So you want to do gold first to just talk about it and then we'll go to the chart. Yeah, this chart out. But what I'm looking at is the bullish, the RSI for the bullish percent index for the gold miners index. Yesterday it closed at 3.03 and now we're breaking down. I see that and we're down about about 3.4% we're putting update on. And with the RSI of the bullish percent index getting this low, I still think we're setting that image term low. If you go back to 2013, there's a trend line on the, at least on GDX is around the 28 to 30 area. And that's, that's where that depends how you do it, but you know, you can draw it different ways. So usually, you know, come in around 28 to 30. And with the bullish percent index on a gold miners index, RSI anything below 10 has been bullish. We're down at 3.03 right now. So everybody's pretty much washed out of the market. They're either out of the market or they're not buying here. So I'm thinking we're back to basically major support and they'll probably look a little low right around another holiday and then we're probably going to go back up and next time up on the XAU there's three tops at 170 area. And I think the next top or the next time up will be the fourth time. And I think that's the time we break through. So, but I don't think a big declines here. I think, you know, we're going to, this is a kind of a washout move that probably won't end today, but it may end tomorrow going into a three-day July 4th holiday. So that's how I'm reading that. Do you think we got two minutes? You want to go through the one chart that we didn't get to? I sent Tim several charts of stocks kind of testing previous lows on lighter volume. You went to the monthly on this one, but it's Amplitude, AMPL. And I have that out. Right. Yeah, it's a monthly chart. The only thing I want to prove here, these signals, you know, especially selling climaxes, they can come anywhere. They can come on a monthly chart, weekly chart, or daily chart. And obviously the monthly chart is an intermediate-term chart because it's pretty much said, you know, the downtrend is pretty much ending because everybody hits the sell button. When you get volume that explodes, you know, 100% compared to the previous month, you got everybody went to the exit. So you got really nobody left to sell here. And, you know, a few sellers are still going on, but they're in small orders compared to the one we had back in February. So I'm thinking this is making a major low here. And this goes along with the stock market. I think everybody is pretty much panicked out of the market. There's really no sellers left. And this Amplitude stock is making lower lows. This month ends tomorrow on this stock. And if you look, ideally you want the volume to be higher than last month's volume, this month's volume, which is June, the higher than last month's volume. The reason why is you want to hit a high of May, hit a higher high. We're out of time here. And of course, this is calendar awareness month. And the month's over today. So these charts when they close, that'll be it for the month. Thanks, Tim. We'll see you in a few weeks. All right. 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For all the details and to get your tiger dollars before the sale ends Tuesday, July 5th, visit the front page of TFNN.com today. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien show, next on TFNN. Get out here. I'm kind of looking for a variety of other reasons about what this market's going to do, but it's nothing new. I thought that we were looking for something. I thought we were, the July 4th thing was probably either going to be a high or some kind of low, and it looks like for everything right now about a low, options continue to kind of auger in right around the 3,800 level, 380 on the spies. So a little bit of this, a little bit of that, but you know, is there a little wiggle room? Yeah, but we're down with 34 points today, but kind of the big story here that I'm looking at is more about the volume as we get into the last time we were down here, which about 18 billion shares. And right now we're doing about 8.3 billion shares. So we're not even 50% of the way there for that big volume day. Now, could we retest the low earlier today? Yeah, I'm not long. I haven't recommended people to buy it. Again, a lot of times you go into these three-day weekends and they'll make you sweat. So generally the thing is, if you think you're going to get a bounce, just wait until Friday's close or maybe wait until the first couple hours on Tuesday. But when we do come back, there will be some fun buying. Generally that is a markup phase. And by the afternoon on Tuesday, they start throwing 401k money at it. And maybe that lasts all of a couple of days or three days. Maybe that is enough gasoline to get some rather damp wood, lit and stay lit. But as I said, I'm not expecting a great deal. I think we're kind of in a range that could go back up to 4,000 on the S&P cash. That's about it. So when you can, not when you have to, we'll be back tomorrow like a bad penny.