 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me Dave Madden. Today's date is Monday the 17th of September At the time has just gone 902 for this summer time Basically the big stories over the past few days have been increased Great tension between the United States of America and China It's looking likely that the US are Edging closer to imposing tariffs on 200 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports But it was also cited in the same article that the US government are looking to impose a 10% levy on those $200 billion worth of Chinese imports rather than the 25% Levy that they are originally talking about so it's believed that the United States Haven't I've gone with the planning and going with the lower rate as a way of a as a way of putting some pressure on the Beijing government and should they feel the need to buy additional pressure They can always wrap up the rate from there So we saw we saw stock markets in China Sell off overnight. We've seen a bit of a sell-off in Europe this morning It is worth pointing out that The trade tensions have been have been getting getting getting worse between the US and China for some time So even though we are seeing every markets lower in Europe this morning and in Asia overnight You start a certain amount a certain amount of this has already been priced in a certain amount of this Has already been expected One one topic which is sort of off the radar for a few weeks is back on the radar again And that'll be emerging market economies the Indian Rookie has fallen to a new all-time low and the South African round and the Turkish Lira are lowered our lower again this morning We haven't seen major sell-offs in those particular currencies, but given that We did see US government bond yields on the 10-year on the 10-year government bond back in the Friday Gold just north of 3% We could potentially see a renewed interest in the US dollar and also US government bonds in the near term Given that the Federal Reserve are having the meeting next week And should we see a push higher in US government bond yields and also the US dollar We could see addition pressure being applied to emerging market emerging market currencies and that could trigger three years about the stability in many emerging market economies around the world which could then spill over to sell-off in in more West Western economies Take a look now at the week ahead The week ahead article can be found on our website if you go to see the markets calm I think go under news and analysis You'll find the week ahead article. So starting with today Monday later today. We will have the first quarter figures out from FedEx Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday. We have UK CPI and UK retail sales also also on Wednesday We have the back of Japan into interest rate decision No change expected there on Thursday. Sorry apologies on Wednesday. We have first half figures out from King Fisher Listed in London on Thursday. We have the Swiss National Bank the SNB Will have released their interest interest rate decision with the SNB There's no no change expected to the industry of policy on Thursday at Dardan the restaurant group over the US They will report their first quarter figures on Friday. We have full your figures from Smith's group listed here in in London And also on Friday with both Canadian CPI and Canadian retail sales So taking a look now at some of the major markets, starting off with the FTSE 100 Which is a touch lower this Monday morning So the FTSE 100 as you can see for the last say Secret seven weeks has been in a downward trend We because if you take a starting off with them with a high from from that from early August Market push lower creating a lower low pushed higher lower high and then only last week Failed back fell back to a level here not seen since April So I give you an idea how negative sentiment was and most of last week We did see the market manager kind of bounce off and recover somewhat from those lows, but Bearing in mind, we're still well below this level here the shred line the dirty moving average Which is off the scene. It's a fairly good problem whether a market of is is a is Is in is enduring positive or negative sentiment and as well below the to the moving average We're not too far away from the from the multi-month lows and like I said, we are lower again today So if you do manage to take out last week's low They could be looking at a back down towards this area here Which comes into play at 7188 and if you break below that we then we head back down to levels not seen I was since early April, so we'll be going to fresh multi-month lows. It should be should be head down there If you managed to kind of push higher on the on the fudsy 100 Keep an eye out for this this level in around here, which comes into play at seven thousand four hundred and twenty two It's the kind of the it's the the low of Friday the 31st of August And if you managed to kind of push beyond that and really keep our for will be this red line here the journey moving average Which comes into play at seven thousand four hundred and eighty seven as you can see that notice how the the journey moving average acts as a support Back in back in mid-August and also act as resistance over a couple occasions in early September And if a metric has a history of acting as support as both support and our resistance Recently that means it makes it all more likely you will do so again in the near term Taking a look now. What's going on over in Germany in the Dax? Relax a bit in fairly weak shape for a number of months now similar to the footsie Last week the Dax hit a multi-month low back to levels not seen since early April So once again quite negative sentiment It's been a very clear downward trend since the July lower low lower high another lower low and lower high And notice how when the market did match to rally here and ready back up to this area, which is in around 12,120 an area which act as very decent support on a couple occasions back in June and also in August So that area was very significant back then and once again it was actually very significant in mid-September So while we remain south of this region here, which comes into play in around 12,120 it's likely that the outlook for the Dax is going to remain negative And if you do look if you do head south of here We could be looking at our heading back below 12,000 and a move back below 12,000 Quick but the recent low on the on the on the radar which comes into play in around 11,800 and 64 Kind of because south of that we could be likely heading back down towards this region here This this region here not seen since the beginning of the year in around the 11,690 area Any moves to the upside in the in the Dax may run into resistance in around the 12,250 area we see a bit of consolidation and In that area recently enough And if you push higher from there, I need to keep enough or will be this blue line here at the 50 moving average Which comes into play 12,440 also on a few occasions. We did even in the market Trade above it acts as a bit of consolidation area both in in later August and also In early August, but the real better to keep a mile for will of course be the journey moving average this red line here at 12,637 as I said, it's often seen as a good brawler of whether, you know Very simple gauge of whether a market is a positive sentiment or a negative sentiment and given that we're well below the grid It moving average and we can assume that how negative sentiment is in relation to the tax On the flip side us markets are looking is still in fairly good shape Even though we have seen a bit of a sell-off in recent sessions So I think this year is the Dow Jones and the Dow Jones has been basically broadly speaking Been been been been pushing higher since since April and a fairly fairly decent upper trend Since July fast example of higher highs and higher lows If you do continue to push on higher from here We could be looking at targeting this area here, which comes into play in around 26,330 and we'll be on that we'll be looking at a backup towards the all-time ice which we've reached in January north of 26,700 moves the downside in the in the Dow Jones may find some support in on this area here Which comes to play at 25,820 or perhaps even down at the East the mid-September low of a twenty five thousand seven hundred and fifty in around this area here Move even if you do drop below that is It makes the remain in the upper trend and the next area of support could come into play at this blue line here at the 50 moving average at really funny twenty five thousand five hundred sixty eight and also the 50 moving average Actions very decent support on the 15th of August As I said before if a metric is acted as support in the past it makes it more likely they will act as a support in future Although of course, there are no guarantees Taking a look now what's going on at the S&P 500 far as similar scenario there or by the marks been in a solid upper trend since April And a pretty decent upper trend since late June It was only at the back in the focus the the S&P 500 rich all-time ice I give the indication of actually how positive at the sentiment has been we've managed to recoup most of the Losses that were incurred in early September. So I think they're looking quite positive The markets been pushing higher in the last number of sessions as you can see here on the MACD indicator on the MacD instagram Although we are still firmly in negative territory on the terms of momentum pause negative momentum as in is in decrease So the markets be marks pushing higher I'm gonna see a steady decline in negative momentum So we get that that move a the back D indicator confirms the upward move that we're seeing in the in the S&P 500 So it makes it all the more likely that the this upward move that we've seen Since around the 7th of September is likely to continue I think it and if you need to push on higher from here on the S&P 500 we could be looking any backup to war back up towards 2,916 and then if you go beyond that 2,920 and 30 with them in the next regions to keep an eye out for Well, if you do if you do move to the downside I will support quickly to play in around this area here as I said the low of September 7th 2,864.1 And even if you just saw there you may find some support to play in around this area here Which coincides with the 50 moving average 2,850 take a look now what's going on in the gold market Seagull remains very much in the in the downward trend that's been in place since August It's our since August since April I apologize the other a Markets been a classic example of a downward trend lower lows and lower highs all the way down Although we have seen a fairly decent recovery over the last month But when the market has bounced back is still really hasn't gained back It's only gained back a small percentage of the ground that has lost over several months and notice how When the market did push higher it ran into the 50 moving average at 1,209 This blue line here and actually failed to actually clear that level So this disappeared in interesting area to keep an eye out for the market hasn't really gone too far south of 1,200 recently but the same time that it's the same time as in managed you can go go too far north of 12 Either if you do manage to break north Of the of the 15 moving average at a 12 on 9 the next year to keep an eye for would be this region here in on the 1225 and a bigger to keep an eye for will be 1236 or 1236 but 37 notice how it actually is in runs it got down as low as As 1237.9 in late July and also the valley here in Apologies in late in early July because it got down as low as 1237.9 and I rallied up to north of 1235 In late July, so keep an eye for 1236 If you do continue to fall back in the end of the old downward trend Thanks here to keep an eye for to the downside Will be 1183 1184 if you go south of that Because you back down toward this district in 1175 and go south of 1175 if you were looking at retesting Apologies the August loan at 1160 Taking a look now at the oil market so now looking at Brent crude Brent crude hit it was hitting a multi multiple actually multi month highs Only at the back end of last week and the manage market as magic and come back a small bit from there But it's been in a firm upward trend since mid-August over the over the last month As you said it hit a multi month high only last week so get an indication of how strong is the sentiment is While we remain north of this yellow line here the 50 moving average Which comes to play out at 75 spots 71 It's like if the outlook for Brent food is going to remain positive And if you can push on higher from there, we keep looking at hitting 80 dollars dollars for barrel And if we go beyond 80 the exit area to keep on that for will be the the may high of 80s by 89 And if you go beyond that we can really looking at our I think 81 spot of 53 and if he once we go bit once we go beyond 80s by 89 we are in multi-year high territories Most of the downside I can say it may find some support from the 180 moving average this yellow line here Which comes to play at 75 spots 71 and even if you go south of that This blue line the 50 moving average may also provide support at 74 spot 62 notice of both those lines Did manage to act as both support in recent weeks therefore making them all the more likely because the addition support coming to play Should be drift floor in the near term Taking a look at WTI not as a not as a strong market as Brent But it's once again, it's broadly speaking in the kind of upward trend that we've seen for the last few for the last day four weeks Taking a look here from the F and the August lows The market has managed to push higher but still give back some of the gains While it remains north of this red line here the turning moving average at six that's just north of 66 dollars in barrel It's like at the outlook is going to remain positive for for WTI if you continue to push on I from here We could look at retesting the recent highs of 61 71 apologies about 69 I think we'll be on that you can be getting back up towards this area here In a 72 spot 79 and then if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting 75 Like I'll say if you take off this red line here The turning moving average at a 66 spot or one keep an eye out for the third the mid-August low At a 64 spot 66, so if you go south of that keep an eye out for the early the low and in mid-June 63 spot 50 58 Take a look now at a couple of currency pairs So the big picture is that the euro has been losing ground versus US dollar since April But we have seen a fairly decent comeback in the euro versus versus the pound So first is the US dollar The market starts began this began this move higher a bottom month ago We've had a we've had the push higher here into Late August the markets pull back to a reaction low here and appears to be pushing higher here yet again The note to keep an eye out for to the upside will be this region here one spot 1750 quite a bit of Solid but very slightly resistance area throughout try to July so we break north of one spot 1750 I mean that would be fairly significant the next area to keep an eye for north of that will be one spot 1850 this region here And although if the market does matter to turn over on itself yet again And I think we do see a break south of this region here in One spot 1510 that will be quite negative And if you go beyond south of one spot 1510 it could take us back down toward the August low of one spot 1301 And this finishing things up now on the pound versus the US dollar the pound dollar has also been declined Since since April rather, but we have seen a fairly decent push higher in the pound recently As you see of the last month the market does indeed pushing higher higher low higher high higher low higher high higher low Market has been has been pushing higher were firmly above the display line here the fifth moving average comes into play in around Just just just it's just south of the one spot 30 region while we remain above one spot 30 For the pound dollars likely we could see these these these gains being extended And if the amount to push on higher from here the next area to keep an eye for to the upside Will be this region here one spot 3250. It was acted as a fairly decent Consolidate solidation area back in both June and also July and if you go beyond that the bigger keeping our for would be the early July high This price here which comes into play at one spot 33 63 But if you do see the power of the dollar trap back low the 130 region We could be heading back down towards the early September low of one spot 2785 And if you go south of there, we can really get it back down towards the August low at one spot 2661 Well, if you've any commentary you want to make any feedback positive or negative on this video or any of the other videos We produce here at CMC markets, please feel free to leave a review on Google reviews. Well, that's all for me this week Thank you very much