 Right, if Google confirms the same way Amazon confirms earnings lows, it can get hit. It can get hit really, really hard. Same thing with Netflix, right? That's what happened with Netflix as well. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com. We can update show, hope everybody is having a great start to the weekend before we even start. I want to wish all the great moms out there, the glues to the family, the common sense to the family, the rationale and just the overall glue that keeps the family unit. Just a wish and awesome, happy Mother's Day. Remember at the end of the day guys, hug your mom, kiss your mom, you only have one mom. So she deserves whatever she gets every day, not just Mother's Day. So hopefully all your great moms are having a great weekend. Hope you guys continue to stay blessed. So let's talk about the market. So, the longer we go, it's kind of the same thing over and over again. Again, by now, if you've been watching this update, you kind of see the same thing playing out, pretty much on a consistent basis. We are now about a month or so, maybe a month or so in below the 50 day moving average. And the same common denominator is playing out on a weekly basis. You're going to see a lot of weakness, right? Channels going sideways, sideways, getting a lot of weakness. The earnings are pretty much being kind of engulfed, right? I think that's the best way of saying, no matter how good or bad the earnings are, there's a lot of selling and a lot of names and we'll get to that individual in a second. But I think we are seeing constant selling pressure. We're also seeing one or two days throughout the week that the market rallies back. And I think the biggest mistake that's constantly being made, especially for new traders are, as soon as you get an uptick back in the market, that's it, bears never learn. Bears just don't learn their lesson. This is the bottom of the market. This is the generational bottom of the market. Here we go again, only to look up a day or two later and we are at the lows. And that's exactly what's playing out over and over and over again. And the unfortunate part, and again, if you're watching this broadcast for the first time, I've traded several, again, like I've mentioned before in the past, I've traded several bear markets, okay? And the one common denominator is that they don't need to last four months, okay? That's the whole point. I traded one that lasted for three years and I traded one that lasted for a couple of years. And the moral of the story is you're wasting your time trying to rationalize to pick bottoms. It just doesn't do anything for you. It's not about being right. It's not about calling a bottom. It's about rationally watching the price action. I think a lot of new traders, they're just kind of in denial. If you started trading the last, hell, even the last six, seven years, all you've seen, again, if you go on the monthly chart of the cues, right? All you've seen for the last seven, six, seven years is this massive, massive rally. So how can we be arrogant enough to think after four months of selling? Again, this is literally month four, right? After four months of selling, how can you arrogantly think that this is it? This has to be the bottom and now we're gonna reverse go higher? Again, maybe we will, maybe we won't. But if you look at charts and you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, that's kind of the whole backbone of the PS60 theory based on this chart right here. This was an individual chart of a Google or a Tesla, whatever the case may be. And I saw this chart. Well, I would say, yeah, listen, the next measure of potential for this thing would be 299, 284, and then maybe, maybe get a softer, maybe even hard landing all the way here at 275. Again, I don't wish the market to go down. I don't want the market to go down. And I would love to see everybody trading on the same side of the market. Again, bull markets just feel good, right? They feel good for everybody, but a good bear market is some really, a lot of really good opportunities. And we'll talk about the individual pivots in a second for Friday, but you're seeing a very clear formation that's forming. And this is the four month, fourth month underneath this rising support here that lasted for about six or seven years. That's a very, very important level. And again, if you're an investor and your time horizon is five, 10, 15 years, that's cool, right? That's absolutely cool. But if you are an active participant in the market and you look and you believe in technical analysis, we always kind of drive the point home of why technical analysis is so important. You could see with your own eyes. It's just building below supply here. How long that's gonna last? Tomorrow, Monday, we could have a whole different conversation. By next week, we could turn around and say, look how quick things change and now we're just above the 50 day moving average and we're about to attack new highs. So anything is possible. I'm not naive to that. And neither should be anybody that's in denial to think the market can't possibly go lower. Remember, six, seven years, upward trend, four months of going lower. Again, it really is not off the table and we could continuously grind lower, move down and kind of attack this soft to hard landing depending how aggressively we get there around this 275 level in our future. And it's still, think about this, even if we get down here, and this is a very next measured potential, but even if we get down here, whether it's a month from now, two months from now, whatever the case may be, look how still how big this monster's uptrend is. We would have to lose 120 on the Qs and we're at right now 300. We would have to lose 120 on the Qs to make it a trend reversal, monthly trend reversal. Until now, this is just one big backfill and we just don't know how long it's gonna last. Maybe it lasts another couple of days, maybe it lasts another couple of months, maybe it lasts another couple of years, we don't know, but to sit there and try to figure out that this is a bottom, the stock is cheap, it's not. Remember, there's no such thing as cheap, there's no such thing as expensive and the market is not oversold. Don't think for a second, I hear this all the time. Again, how can you justify seven years of rallying in four months of selling and talking about the market's oversold? This doesn't make any sense and if you have eyeballs, you can clearly see where your next potential is, but the good news is, and this is kind of, this is a very important point. I think the good news is, if you are a permable and you don't participate on the short side and I think that's a very big mistake because if you are, it's like driving a car and saying I'm only gonna use the gas, I'm not gonna use the brake, or I'm not gonna use the steering wheel. Again, if you're a trader, you should really trade both sides of the market, but the luxury with this particular tape is giving us, especially the permables, they will give you a couple of days, two, three, really, really aggressive days throughout the month that you can trade on the long side, but the ultimate action, the continued theme is, again, here is the 50-day moving average. We broke that one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, Monday will be 20. You're talking about three full weeks of sell bias action below the 50-day moving average. For the market to really scream risk back on, number one, we're gonna have to start reclaiming all these levels that we lose, and every single time we reclaim the major level, the next couple of days you gotta give it all back, like Wednesday. Wednesday was probably one of the most aggressive days I can remember. The market was down two, three, 400 points, and then Powell came on, talked about 50 basis point hikes for the next, for this one and the next one, but then he took off the idea of a 75-base point hike in the future, which really gave the market a lot of relief, and we had a thousand-point rally, and what was crazy about that thousand-point rally, number one, it came at three o'clock, okay? So the market put up a thousand-point move in an hour, just to give you an idea how crazy that is, and what it did in the meantime, in the process, was taking out two weeks worth of selling on one candle in one hour. The nuttiest part about it, and it really does show you who has at least the short-term control of this market, the following day that the Bulls could have really, you know, really started building above the 20-day moving average, what happened was the next day, in the first 30 minutes, we lost this whole candle. So one candle in golf, two weeks of selling, and the next day in the first half hour, we lost everything that this candle made, and the following day lost another couple of hundred points. So again, the Bears are doing a great job right now. The Bulls are hanging on, and there's definitely some pockets of strength here and there, but again, the ultimate theme continues to be the same. We get one day, two days, maybe of upward bias in the market that's really not doing anything because, remember, the channels are contracting because all these supply zones are going lower. There's not a lot of room, that's why they keep on getting rejected. But at the same time, we're still seeing consistent selling, the plays that are working. We talked about this last weekend. Guys, try to stick to names. If you're looking for really aggressive trades, continuation channels, remember what we talked about last week, Amazon, we were waiting for earnings low, Netflix, we were waiting for earnings low, Shopify, we were waiting for earnings low. These are all stocks that blew up. Well, I don't think these were blow up, but had bad earnings, had bad moves down, right? They rallied a little bit, and once they took out their earnings lows, that's when they started trickling down for the next three, four, five days. And we saw many examples of that throughout the week. You saw Verisign, right? Here's my point. Here's Verisign, right? Verisign lost its earnings low. Once it got hit, got hit hard. Amazon, we'll get through the pivots in a second, right? Amazon went down, rallied a little bit, and once it took out its earnings low, had the next two days worth down 100 points or so. Shopify, same thing, right? Shopify, exactly the same thing. Shopify got hit on earnings, and the next day, which was Friday, it confirmed the earnings low, went down at one point and went down another 75 points or so. So we're looking for names like TDOC to turn around the next couple of days to start testing their earnings low. But this is the one I'm definitely, definitely watching going into this week, is Google, right? If Google confirms the same way Amazon confirms earnings lows, it can get hit. It can get hit really, really hard. Same thing with Netflix, right? That's what happened with Netflix as well. Netflix got hit, went sideways, right? And Friday took out the lows. Excuse me, Thursday took out the lows and Friday continued that. So that's the play. That's the play that's constantly working. Just think about that. All these stocks that lost their, had a good hit on earnings, there's no catalyst for them, right? They're dead money. So there's people that are picking the bottoms of these things. But like I said in last week's video, they're not consolidating to go higher. They're consolidating to get its next leg down. And that's the name of the game right now. There's consolidation to go lower, not consolidation to go higher. And until the bulls kind of, just really start negating bad news and start reclaiming macro levels. Again, you're gonna still continue to see a really good sell bias market with pockets of up days, which are fine. Pockets of up days in between. Those days, again, in my opinion, I've always said this, the hardest days are always the up days in a sell bias market because you don't know how much the stock is gonna go higher. Remember, it's a dead cab bounce. At least to the downside, you're going with, right? You're going with momentum. When you're going to the upside, right? When there's an update, there's no telling if the stock is in a rally, 50 cents of $5 or $15, or gets stuffed on the first decline of futures. And that's what we're seeing. Any type of rally that we are getting, even the good strong up days, as soon as it's down ticking futures, man, these bids are scattering and these stocks are getting hit again. So going into this week again, fundamentally, materialistically, opinion, sentiment, whatever you wanna call it, it's not changing. Sentiment, it's still sell biased. Again, you'll get a couple of days that are rallying in between, but until the bulls can really shake off the bears and start reclaiming at least the 20-day moving average to go to the 50, probably you're gonna have still continued themes. So let's talk about Friday's pivots. Very, very aggressive day. We were waiting for this day because Wednesday and Thursday was so crazy, so choppy. We finally got this big measured day and all happened right at the open. We were prepared for the open. And the most important part is guys, when you have a potential premium day and you have on your list Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, NVIDIA, Netflix, Facebook, Apple, stuff like that, the really big stocks of the average to range, the last thing you wanna do is trade something like, I'm just gonna use any symbol, like a lucid or something that's so random that's gonna trade in a 50 cent range. When everything goes down, and that's exactly what happened Friday at the open, when everything goes down, you want to get the stock that could potentially get a one candle move, three, five, seven, 12, 15 points. You don't wanna get, you don't wanna concentrate on the name that's gonna move up, move down, excuse me, 30 cents, 60 cents. You're gonna be fighting for a while. You're getting masses of gravity pull downs at the same time. So I think what you trade is almost as important as how you trade because the last thing you wanna do is waste the window. And the one thing we got was that window on Friday. I think a lot of you guys are very, very happy and it was a really strong morning and let's talk about it. So this was Thursday, right? Amazon 2367 is the earnings low. That's what we talked about this a few minutes ago, major line in the sand, that got hit, put in a low of 2300. So 2300 was Friday's pivot, right? So if 2300 can see 2230s if the market implodes. Here was Amazon, right? Here was Amazon got all the way down to 2260 level, 2260 level before a little bit of a bounce but it was really strong two-day move. Shop got destroyed, absolutely destroyed. 411 is the bottom range of this blow up. That was Thursday, if it builds below can see 366 for experienced traders only. So that day on Thursday got down to 395. That's why the Thursday pivot was 394 needs to build for more downside. Shop got murdered at one point. It was down like another 75 points, got all the way down to 355. I thought it was gonna get down to the 360s, got down to 355, but really aggressive pull there as well. Netflix, same thing. Again, 190 has held three times. If it builds below might see recent lows. So that got hit on Thursday and then Friday 185.60 earnings lows, right? That's the earnings low needs to confirm for the next leg down. Netflix got hit as well as one goes down. They all go down. It's took out the 90, took out the 85.60. That's the whole range of this bottom channel on all way down to 175 and change. Huge, huge move there as well. Google 23 held back to back days if it builds below can see earnings lows. Didn't quite get down to the earnings lows. I went down about 25 points or so. You know, went down about 25 points or so, but I'm still watching for these earnings lows this week. NVIDIA got smashed, really big aggressive candle before it reversed 185 and 182.90. Big areas need to confirm down. Here was NVIDIA. Look at this ugly, ugly candle here at the open. Look at this 60 minute candle. This thing literally confirmed this whole channel here. It took out the 85, took out the 82.90 and went all the way down to 79 and change. Big, big move there. But again, there was massive waterfalls on everything at the open. And those are the greatest days because they are so aggressive and they take such a short period of time. Tesla, this was definitely a phenomenal move. I love Tesla. For experienced traders only off the 868 level it got held six times, literally six times. If it confirms can flush yesterday's low was 85, 85.70. So here is the Tesla pivot. Here's the sneaky pivot we talk about all the time. Here's the 68 level. You see how many times it held 68? 68, 68, 68, 68, 68, finally took out 68 and went all the way down to 843, $25 candle on Tesla got absolutely mashed. Coin got destroyed, 112 held three times if it builds below can flush. Here was Coinbase, again the same. Look at these candles were just phenomenal at the open. Here's the whole 112 channel took out 112 went down to 100. I still like Coin. I think it goes lower. Once it confirms the Bollinger Band on Monday this thing is gonna drop more. I like that as well. You can see there's a ton of value TTD 5380 if it builds below can flush here is TTD, right? Took out the 5380 went all the way down to 48. I still like this thing lower if it starts losing 48. I think there's another leg down. TDOC again, if it builds below this 3225 should be 3235, 2535 it builds below can flush. Here was TDOC. So you kind of get the point, right? Kind of get the point here is it took out the 35 went all the way down to 32. I think if it loses 32, it'll start seeing the earnings lows which why I'll be watching this week. So really good way to end the week. Again, the market is the market. There's nothing you could do about it. The most important point is, and I say this all the time don't anticipate, don't guess. Don't try to be too smart. Don't try to outsmart the market. It'd be nice in a perfect world. The market turns around and we're all time highs in the next month or so. But again, life's not fair. The market's not fair. And again, I don't know why somebody is thinking we're only four months into a selling cycle that it can't last a year. It can't last two years. Again, I've been in two separate cycles that lasted for two, three years. I hope it doesn't happen. I don't want it to happen. I don't think anybody else does. But at the same time it is on the table because that is what the market has done. So guys, stay safe. Concentrate on your plan. Concentrate on your research and make sure you continuously put in the work no matter how much you trade. And the most important part is staying in business. Guys, God bless. Have a healthy and happy Mother's Day. I wish you all the best. And with God's help, I will see you all on Monday. Take care.