 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Tuesday is definitely my favorite days here on covering the spread because we get to cover the whole game We're talking NFL week number four later on We are talking the Sanderson farms championship with Brandon Gadoula and right now We're talking strikeout props with Rob Friedman pitching Ninja getting you said for Tuesday night on the diamond This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as I mentioned by Rob If Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching Ninja find his work over at Fox Sports MLB Nessun peacock everywhere and of course you're uncovering the spread each Tuesday as well Rob only two Tuesdays left in the regular season But sounds like we're gonna have some post season talk later on as well. I am pumped for that. How you doing today I'm doing great. How are you? I'm delightful. I get to watch some fun baseball I think that that's always fun. It is kind of dicey this time of year, you know talking I play a lot of DFS That's dicey, you know strikeout props can be dicey, but I think for tonight It's a lot of what I the word I would use to describe the pitchers for tonight is fun That's the first word I would turn to for the guys pitching tonight. I think that's fair I'm kind of excited for two because it is a kind of a crapshoot right now When we were talking off off camera about how long guys stay in yeah Maybe some have an extra incentive to stay in because if you're you know, you're close to a spot or you're fighting for something You're gonna leave your guys in but then others there's no real reason to and you just have to figure it out Do they need work? Do they not and that's a big part of it? And I think that you because you pay so much attention to baseball you're gonna have a good handle on that So I think that for me I go into the pretty high trust level in your analysis on this stuff So let's dive into this Tuesday slay and look at what your numb what yours the what you're thinking about Tuesday night Like I said a lot of fun pitchers of those fun guys Who are you turning to for tonight in the strikeout prop market? So I have Blake's now 7k's or more Lance McCuller 7k's or more and then Shane Bieber for 7k's or more as a three leg parlay Now with the snow one my numbers have Blake's now projected for 8.2 strikeouts for tonight You've got him at 7 plus strikeouts and like I felt a little bit nervous about that with my projection being that high And because it's the Dodgers But I think snails pitching well enough where he can overcome even that kind of match up and it seems like you agree with that as well I absolutely do and I think number one He's proving something because he's been inconsistent and now I think he's found his form and when he does snails a snails a monster I mean snails illa can rack up the case with anybody I mean he has you know multiple pitches with a ton of whiffs So I like that and I thought his last outing was one of the best I've seen all year like just absolutely dominant and I wouldn't I think he is going to want to set the tone They still have something to play for and I like him. Yeah, yeah I think that was part of I have the Padres money line in this game and part of it was the Dodgers are on cruise control Like you look at their lineups each night. They're like, okay, cool. We got the onesie locked up We're good to go and you can tell that and that that factors into the money line But also factors in for the snow strikeout prop now We were talking to pitch counts pitch counts being dicey Dusty Baker don't care Lance McCullers. He's going deep in games I know that like they're pretty firm and where they're at But I think they it seems like they want McCullers to be like ramped up coming off that injury Is that kind of your line of thinking on him as well? Literally my exact line of thinking on that number one Lance is about as competitive as anybody on the pump His stuff is filthy and I don't think he gets enough credit for it And then they want to stretch him out He has something to prove himself because he hasn't been there all year and wants to show that he is the man For the postseason and he's locked in because that is a great pitching staff. Yeah, and you know, there's not a lot locked in on that Yeah, it's definitely not and I think that firm for me though I was going through McCullers numbers last night and I was concerned because of the walk rate But then you look at his pitches per plate appearance. He's still weirdly efficient despite walking guys He doesn't waste a lot of pitches and I think that that's me was pretty encouraging for the strikeout number on the colors here Now the one you were talking about before the show if you were saying, you know If there's one that's gonna, you know, wreck this it's the Bieber one over six and a half frame individually is minus 102 Your concern here seems to stem around potentially pitch count giving Cleveland's positioning. They've got the AL central I they're they're locked in the postseason at this point already So what still pushed you towards the over on this number because I do agree these six and a half seems pretty fair Against the rays. Yeah, I mean, I think it's it's really facing the rays still like I'm on the fence with him wanting to prove Something or not. He's proven a ton. Yeah, but to keep his ERA below three. I think is a big deal to him As well as like when he's on he just does rack up case regardless of his velocities velocities down doesn't matter He still knows how to pitch. I Think, you know, I can see a situation where he Maybe gets pulled for pitch count to save them some and that's kind of what I was factoring in I'd like him a lot more if it was a you know, a tighter situation. Yeah, that being said, you know His stuff is good enough to just run through That raise line up and with the rays specifically being a high strikeout team I think that gives you leeway where even if he does leave early It's going to help out things out there quite a bit. If you pair those three together. That's plus 457 That's a good number. I think that given what my number say about my colors and beepers specifically I think that's a good number for that trio of strikeout props there Now the one I wanted to ask you about today actually do have one for today one. I found that I liked I've got Michael walker over four and a half. It's over at fandall sports book that is even money right now now walker Has the motivation questions for sure given boston's positioning right now, but I feel like ever since he came back He's looked pretty good in general. What's he been on him specifically? Since he rejoined that rotation His his change up is is phenomenal and I think that's what leads him He has been he's just been great like he is their ace and I actually do you know, you mentioned I do work for nessen He he won my red socks starting pitcher of the year and he deserves it like he's he mean what is he 11 and 1 with a 2 7 And you know I the strikeouts it's tricky with him right like he's a he's a 4 and 5 guy and occasionally will get more than that I do like that number. I mean, I think that he has personally something to prove Um, there's no reason to let up for him and you know, it it definitely wouldn't surprise me to see him Yeah, I think the thing I like about walker is the efficiency. He's going to get you six Maybe seven innings each and every time so he's going to get a lot of chances at those strikeouts And that to me makes me feel better about him. I've got a projection for 5.8 tonight. That seems a little bit rich based on He doesn't have a ton of like up up upside, but he'll be around four or five I can guarantee you that for today based on his track record That's exactly what I see and and I I would you know air on the side of on the high side I think with him And I think he's one of those guys that nobody's really paid attention to Yeah, and he's had a great season Um, and that's one reason why I love that pick just to call some attention to how good walker has been this year Yeah, well pitching ninjas red sox pitcher of the year Michael walker We'll see if he can live up to that that high billing Fortune that against the Orioles again even money on him over four and a half strikeouts That is rob freeman check him out on twitter at pitching ninja as you mentioned you could find his work over at Nessin fox sports mlb and peacock as well rob. I appreciate the time enjoy watching all these fun pitchers We didn't talk about robbie ray. He's pitching tonight, too So it's a lot of fun guys enjoy the baseball. We'll talk to you once again next week. Absolutely. Thanks again, Jim Thank you as always again rob freeman on twitter at pitching ninja awesome often awesome stuff there as always And I do like all those picks he mentioned as well with these strikeout props We're gonna get to brandy gadilla to break down the sanerson farms championship here in just one second But first twisted tea and fando will have joined forces to bring you a one of a con contest series That gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars inside credit introducing twisted teas college football picks A sports betting focused contest series that is entirely free to play the contest is simple Each college football game will be assigned a money line spread and total market with assigned points to each market all you have to do Is make six selections based on those three markets and our points for each correct selection You may if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head over to fando.com slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember Please drink Responsibly we have more pga coming up for this week. We got the sanerson farms championship coming off of the president's cups Let's bring in brandy gadilla right now you can find brandon on twitter at gadilla 13 brandon president's cup in the books USA got the win there jordan spieth friend of fando will go a nut so how are you doing? Good good. Yeah, it was uh You know, it was it was expected to be a pretty lopsided event. Uh, us was basically minus 700 to pick up the win I had I started to simulate that one out. I had it about Roughly 80 20. Um, and that felt a little bit high for the international side, but they Got off through a slow start, but they battled back and I mean You know in the end not as close as uh, like a coin flip But there were a few matches that you know thursday friday saturday if they went a little bit differently then I think that us team Would be sweating even a little bit more than they were so as a internet ended up being a fun one Yeah, there had been a spread on the points. I'm not sure I there might have been but I feel like the international team Probably at least flirted with that spread if that were actually a thing you could do for president's cup Okay, this week at the sanderson farms championship not quite the same Names that we had for the president's cup. Obviously it's at the country club of jackson What do we need to know about this course to bet this week brandon? Yeah, definitely not the who we saw last week, but we do see sam burns, uh, the defending champ plus 950 To win and and it makes sense that he is plus 950 To win coming out of the president's cup because this course should really fit What he does best we've seen the country club of jackson on the pg tour since 2015 so there's no shortage of data, but Driving distances to help it's not a prerequisite. There are some guys who play this course well Without being long off the tee, but you can pull driver and kind of cut some corners a little bit So that's relevant and we know the sam burns just nukes it off the tee. So that kind kind of checks out there And there are some narrow fairways But i'm not really like factoring that in um, and if you look at the stroke scan stats, it's really just Stroke scan off the tee that correlates well stroke scan ranks 14th That correlation between total stroke scan and stroke scan off the tee ranks 14th of 40 courses in my database. So I always like to just use uh stroke scan off the tee here because that's kind of what we're what we're looking at In terms of what actually matters. You don't have to be long. You don't have to be accurate just be one of them because It's a bit of a demanding course off the tee or I guess If you're not getting strokes off the tee you're just falling behind it a course like this But other than that pretty straightforward setup. Um, if you pull up data golf's course table, uh, and you look at the different stats and how they rank among All of the courses with shot link data This one's like right down the middle and so many different stats. Um, so there's not like one specific advantage from there That that you'll see getting a leg up that said Where we really see a lot of separation generally is Stroke scan putting, uh, it's not a full on putting competition. We've seen some bad putters when sam burns actually lost Stroke scan putting when he won Sergio Garcia won here Um So it's not necessarily like a full on prerequisite But guys who may be put really well, especially on Bermuda greens, which is what we get this week Can get a leg up and someone like Danny McCarthy. He's finished top 20 here four straight years You and I we talk about Danny McCarthy very little When we're breaking down things from a dfs standpoint because there aren't many courses that fit Danny McCarthy, but you know, he can hit some fairways and then putt well on these greens. So it's a There's not one specific archetype But if I was looking for one specific archetype, it would be guys who do have added distance Guys who obviously have good iron play and guys who putt well and honestly though The the subset of golfers who were long and putt well pretty small. Yeah, so that's why it feels A little bit scary to fade sam burns if we're going to consider going that route So let's talk about that burns is plus 950 a fan of those sports books. He the gala is number two He's 18 to 1 so burns the runaway favorite here, but he is a guy who can putt pretty well Not a bomber, but he's not short and he is good at placement off the tee Is that enough for you to show value on burns or is plus 952 short for your liking? So in my win simulation model, it's it's a bit too short. Um I think from a more subjective angle. It makes sense I'll talk about burns a little bit later in more detail, but That way we're not totally missing out if burns comes out hot, but I think i'm probably out on an outright on sam burns Okay, any outbreaks that you do like based on the odds for this week Taylor montgomery is 26 to 1 on vandal sports book Again, i'm looking for basically if there's distance added that's a benefit. If not, it's it's not the biggest deal, but T 15 and distance last year on the corn fairy tour This is definitely not the best stat, but he was second in putts per round on the corn fairy tour as well Probably over a full season that stuff averages out a little bit, but you know putts per round You could stick it to two feet from With your wedges or whatever and then you're not a good putter, but you know, that's that's a conversation for another time But he does kind of have that if we can trust those stats he then has a Rare combination of distance as it comes on the pga tour. The putting is really good in that sample It's a little bit scary to putt that well, but it also kind of backs up the the stats we saw on the corn fairy tour So I like him at 26 to 1 scott stallings 29 to 1. He's got some power off the tee I have him in the 86 percentile in long-term Adjusted iron play so stroking approach Good putter overall good on bermuda, which is the greens we get this week and good course form for stallings Which is never a must but whenever you see that that backed up it definitely helps with the confidence Wyndham Clark is 50 to 1 He is super long off the tee. He's a good putter It's a again just a really rare combo to have someone just hit it really far and be a good putter Um, but this is the kind of week where he could pop So I think Wyndham Clark 50 to 1 makes sense. He's also good on bermuda and then another Uh, the final one here because I think if you're fading burns You can be a little bit more open and take on a few more options. Uh, carl you on 75 to 1 he was seventh in driving distance on the corn fairy tour last year Just average putting stats overall, but he ranked top five in stroke scan to teeter green per round at the fort net and I stressed per round because he missed the cut because the Putter wasn't there, but there's you know, so there's some risk Especially if he's going to be an average putter, uh, maybe a little bit of a weaker putter But if he's got that teeter green game going, then I think that makes some sense. It's 75 to 1 Okay, if you had to pick one of those would it be montgomery or Who would you go with? Okay, montgomery 26 is the pick there. Okay. Any other bet stand out to you mentioned a burns one What's your route to exposure on him? Uh, first round leader Okay, uh 22 to 1 I think so this is the this objective part of it. He's he's either going to be So he went 0 3 and 2 at the president's cup, so he didn't get a win Uh, but he played really well. He was actually bogged down at times by his good buddy scottie schaeffler Wow. Um, yeah, it was kind of a thing. Um So I was like searching schaefflers No, I was searching for president's cup results and like someone was like grading everyone spieth got an a schaeffler got an f And I was like, ah Yeah, I think I think the only grade you could give schaeffler was an f based on expectations For being the number one player in the world. He was my I thought he'd be the anchor I thought he would just be like, you know guys follow me like I'll lead by example and Just wasn't there. Um, didn't have the putter, but yeah, I think so I'm having trouble with burns because he's one of the few guys Sebastian munez actually withdrew. Um, and then I think just christian besadenhote also played the president's cup But he didn't play a lot. So I think sam Burns either going to be Tired out from playing the president's cup. Maybe a little bit partied out as well But what are you implying brandon? But he's the He's also the defending champ. Again. He did not pick up a win That might impact him, you know, just mentally and Also, he is a lot better than everyone else in this field So sam burns first round leader 22 to 1 I think he'll either come out hot and be like, okay I should have just went with burns or he'll kind of Faded fade and not have it. I don't really seem grinding out from, you know, a t 40 after the first round So that's the my exposure. Maybe a half unit on that just to get a little bit of protection from a sam burns runaway, but I was like denny mccarthy top 10. That's plus four 10 Um, I have him it's about plus 350 in my win simulation model. Uh, based on his top 10 odds Uh, he has great course form. Again, not long off the tee. We definitely know that but just a fantastic putter Four straight top 20s here great on bermuda as well Um, I think he's also kind of in play for a first round leader. It uh, plus or at The 48 to 1 In case the putter runs hot early. Yeah, that's a high variance play, but maybe he Falls off the high variance market though. So that's actually fine. Yeah. Um, and then last one here Andrew putting on top 10. That's plus 850. Um, just definitely not long I have him in a second percent time on driving distance over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national's data But a really really good short game really strong bermuda putter and frankly just the the long term adjusted strokes game numbers A bit too good, uh for him To be you know, plus 850 to finish top 10 in this field. So I think those are great odds plus 850 Just honestly great odds for top 10s. Uh, So I think putting them, uh, is definitely someone that'll be thrown on the card So we get burns to start hot and then mcgummery to finish hot Uh, we get the we can get bold, you know pork in all those dose Yeah, I mean first round leaders on favorites, you're gonna get go from basically like again this week. We have plus 950 to plus 2200 Plus 950 doesn't really excite me. Um ever but plus 2200 sounds good Especially and there's there's a lot more variants. That's why those numbers are right There's a reason but but you know, you can model it out and burns is a little bit closer value there Plus 2200 Alrighty, we'll see how things go for the sanderson farms championship That is brandon gaduola. Check him out on twitter at gaduola 13 Check out all of his simulations over at number fire.com as well and the heat check fantasy podcast over on the number fire Daily fantasy podcast see brandon. Thank you to you. Good luck for this week And is there another event next week that I can talk to you about? I've looked ahead I don't bother yet. Uh, yeah um I forget what it is already. Okay. Well, we'll talk to you next week then. Yeah. Yeah. Well, yeah, we'll talk Alrighty, we got golf all the time. Oh, buddy. Don't don't I know it. Don't I know it this time of year That is brandon gaduola again. Check him out on twitter at gaduola 13 to check out all of his pga dfs and pga betting work So we talked some baseball. Let's talk some golf. Let's now take our first look ahead at week number four In at the nfl and take a look at where my numbers are showing some value for this week And whether I am betting that whether I agree with that or not the first one that I do agree with Is the washington money line? They are currently plus 144 over at fandals sportsbook. They're taking on Dallas cowboys for this week. Obviously the cowboys now two and oh uh since uh two and oh with cooper rush at the helm I don't necessarily buy into that though. Washington's money line is plus 150 at fandals sportsbook Dallas in my model is here by point one five points. So basically a toss up So you're getting the uh, washington commanders at about a 40% win odds versus roughly around 50% by my model I think that The worry here in terms of this bet losing is that we just saw the washington offensive line get bullied by the dallas or by the philadelphia defensive line and Like The cowboys can do the same thing. So that's a concern for me But I do still think this washington offense has a decent amount of juice. Um, I Don't super buy into a cooper rush has done so far So to me getting washington plus 150 40 applied odds to win That's pretty hard for me to turn down. So I will take them on the money line here Another money line I like on the dog is the titans money line at plus 148 If you can find a three and a half and out out there, I'd probably take that on the spread versus going at the money line Let's get that increased flexibility Uh, there are there's only one three and a half that I saw earlier on out there So most likely scenario you're betting the money line here at plus 148 on the titans The line is plus three minus 104 at fan dual sportsbook So that one may get to three and a half there if you want to hold off and try to go For the spread instead But the reason I like the the titans here is I've got the titans favorite of this game by 1.1 points that is potentially optimistic, but The reason I'm okay buying into that is that my number has been low on the titans The entire off season it's hard to project a good offense when you take away a j brown and add in A couple rookies and treylon berks and kyle phillips is banged up to Be the leaders of this offense the focal points of this offense Robert woods look pretty good in that uh, las vegas game sounds like he's getting more acclimated coming off of his torn acl treylon berks Full snap share for him this past week They're not getting him the ball downfield very much yet, but that's kind of what happened at arkansas too, so I don't know. They just been efficient my numbers like the titans last week and I did not bet it but adding what they did last week add in the fact that the cults I don't think Really played up to maybe perception in that that chiefs game They had a lot of luck a lot of bounces go their way So I the titans favored in this game, which is why I want to go with the money line at plus 148 But I also don't mind if you want to wait for three and a half it might get there at fan duel Just based on the fact that it's minus 104 at the uh, at the plus three right now If you want to hold out for three and a half or you find three and a half Totally feel free to go that way but based on my numbers with the titans being favored I'm okay taking the plus 148 in the money line and plugging them in there We'll see if derek canary can go nutso in this game Hopefully he can to make this look a little bit easier third money line also a dog Denver I know um, I I'm showing value in the cardinals as well I'm not I have not bet that I probably won't I can't do that to myself again And you would think I had the same sentiment towards Denver based on the way things are gone I know they got me a win this past week. We'll talk about that and recap in last week in just a second, but I've got Denver favored by three points here The Broncos have not played well But neither of the Raiders. I know the Raiders have like been close in their games thus far, but I'm not sure they played well just yet. You look at the depth that the Broncos have in their secondary I think that positions them well to both have a handle on devontae Adams, but then also Mop up with the guys like Matt Collins, Darren Waller who can also beat you in other ways So I like the the defensive matchup for the Denver defense versus the Raiders offense And I think that this Raiders defense is sneaky sneaky bad like again talk about the titans last week Robert Woods showing up there part of that was the titans maybe outperforming my expectations But also the Raiders defense kind of stinks in the secondary if you can keep the quarterback upright I feel like they'll have a lot of success. So the Denver money line right now Is that plus 112 over a fan dual sportsbook? I do think that is a good value I'm willing to bet that and we'll take the money line there So showing a lot of value in dogs this week same thing. It's been first couple weeks Sounds like the public is pretty into favorites. So uh the the money line under dogs I like this week not specifically seeking them out but showing value on them Washington plus 150 Tennessee plus 148 and Denver plus 112 all three of those to me pretty good value bets and spots where I either have as a toss up or the the underdog being favored in those games One underdog where I'm taking the points as opposed to the money line is the Rams Rams are plus two and a half right now against san francisco I've got the Rams favorite here by point one three points But I do want the extra flexibility in a game where the totals come crashing down. It was I think like 40 It was up a couple Uh, we were looking yesterday total like game was a bit higher. It came crashing down. This is a Monday night game By the way, uh, it's now down to 42 and a half. So you see the spread or the total coming down that lends itself towards more, uh You know taking the points effectively So denver or sorry, los angeles plus two and a half right now again I've been favor by point one three and part of the reason why I had them favor despite the fact the rams Haven't played all that well so far is the trend williams injury trend williams is Arguably the best offensive lineman in football high ankle sprain. He will miss four to six weeks You will not play this weekend that impacts san francisco in every aspect of their offense so you take away trend williams and you take a a Probably below average quarterback and jimmy garoppolo and put him in a Less optimal situation. It's a lot of bad situation. George kiddle brandon iuk diva samuel all those guys It's still a good situation, but it's not the best situation Which is what garoppolo has dealt with for most of his time here in san francisco. So to me It's kind of situation where you've got the rams defensive line Facing off against an offensive line that doesn't have trend williams and has some holes on the interior at one of those spots So I think it's situation where you just kind of go with the the rams plus two and a half here minus one ten Because of the situation you have the trend williams missing this game I think that there is value there. So i'll go with the rams plus two and a half money line is plus one Oh wait, obviously showing a bit of value there, but I prefer to go and take the points at um At plus two and a half There are a couple totals. I like as i've mentioned previously. I don't have a totals model So don't have specific numbers to show me that these are actual values I do have a way to project out each team's offensive efficiency though and looking at that Cross-referencing versus each team's pace I like the under both the browns and falcons at 49 and a half and the under for the lions and seahawks at 50 Browns and falcons, uh, both these teams have been pretty efficient open in the year and my model does know that it's accounting for that a bit, but It's still a lower efficiency game Both teams like to run the ball quite a bit 49 and a half is a pretty big number The miles Garrett injury. I'm not sure what his situation might be following his car crash last night, but based on Reading, you know the situation there. It sounds like it was pretty minor I don't really know no broken bones from what I read. So there's a chance. He plays this week That'd be a good thing for the under here the browns I mean, I've been pretty impressed by it's coming percent But at the end of the day, this is a game quarterback by marcus mariotta who I adore And you can be preset and the total is 49 and a half even with this game being indoors even with the falcons defense not being You know elite by any means like they played pretty well so far I think this total is way too high. So 49 and a half to me and under does Does look pretty tasty and I will take that for the browns and falcons other total I like is the lions and seahawks under 50 now The lions are an over team I think we can say that definitively based on the way things have gone so far this year a very competent offense a not as competent defense So that sets up well for an over but the seahawks do not the seahawks offense is like the most under offense of all time If things aren't going well if they are moving the ball efficiently They're gonna run the football that drains clock that keeps the clock rolling And does help things as far as Getting ourselves towards and under on the lion side of things. Deandre swift is going to miss this game Most likely it seems like and running backs don't impact things too much But I think switch is one of the guys who does in the sense that he can actually spring a big play Running the ball typically lends itself towards and under the times we can get over is when it's a big play And swift is a guy who is far more capable of that than jamal williams Craig reynolds, justin jackson ever may be filling in for deandre swift for this week So to me you get this total of at 50 I think it's just kind of a situation where people got a bit too enthusiastic about The way seahawks games have gone thus far or the way lions games have gone thus far I cannot overlook the fact that p carol is one of the coaches in this game p carol is not someone you expect to see in a total of a game with a total of 50 when gino smith is his quarterback so to me With the the seahawks projecting me a bit run heavy as always with troit missing a guy who can Spring a lot of big plays. I think the under is the way to play this thing So two totals like this week the browns falcons under 49 and a half and the lion seahawks under 50 Do you want to go through a couple where my numbers are showing value, but I have not bet yet? I might but I haven't done it yet one of those is the dolphins plus three and a half the reason that i'm guessing them the market is Higher on the bangles here is because of the fact that dolphins defense just ran 90 plays in the miami heat now plays thursday Bad situation and I will be honest. That's why I've not bet this one yet. It does stick out to me But this dolphin's offense I think it's pretty legit you look at their numbers so far even in games where they placed Played a decent defense in buffalo. I still respect the new england defense despite the fact I got shredded by lamar jackson this past week the miami offense is freaking good man like they Their efficiency numbers very good. I had a pretty high prior for them in terms of passing efficiency They have exceeded that So it could be a situation where my numbers just overreacting because I had the high prior because they've been so good so far That's part of it. The defensive Rest stuff is the bigger issue for me So i'm showing value plus three and a half on miami if it were to move more If we get a situation where everyone talks about the defensive rest and suddenly gets to Four four and a half the money line keeps moving then I could buy into miami. I've not done so yet, but I'm I'm open to it is what I would say. I've not gone there yet though. Other one is new england plus 10 and a half I don't want to bet on brian hoyer really. I don't really want to but Putting him in there as the new england starting quarterback It's under 10 for me So getting 10 and a half is enticing in part because of the fact I think it's over reaction to mac jones being out but also because this is probably going to be a pretty low scoring game Greenbay has shown that if they've got a lead, they don't really care too much about running up the score They just want to win the football game get themselves to the postseason and be in position to play well them They don't care as much about this so Narratively ice can see plus 10 and a half um from a A data perspective I see plus 10 and a half because I can't get to that number based on my numbers But it's just so hard mentally to bet on brian hoyer. That's part of why this number is big, you know They know Sportsbooks know people don't want to bet brian hoyer. They want to bet everyone rogers in this matchup. So I'm still considering it I might go 10 and a half. We saw it move from nine and a half overnight to 10 and a half now Maybe it keeps on moving and maybe I buy and then I I think i'm tempted because again it is such a low total game I haven't gone there yet But I I think that if between these two i'm probably more likely to bite on my on uh, New england than I am in miami Just because the way this game sets up. Uh, so between those two more likely to bite on new england I'm trying to value in the chargers right now facing off at houston. I had to take uh My son rachan slater out of this matchup Which broke my heart because rachan slater One of the best left tackles in all the league taking him out though still shows value in the chargers now right now They're uh five and a half at vandal sportsbook. I saw a couple four and a half this morning Which is part of why I've not bet it yet because i'm curious to see if this number does keep moving And keep on coming down It's a four and a half right now draft kings minus 115 on the charger side of things The five and a half at vandal does stand out relative to the market. So I want to sit out here I will probably wind up betting the chargers eventually But I think we could see a situation where maybe we see a lot of money come in on houston because of You know no rachan slater bad vibes around the chargers given that brandon staley has suddenly gone Opposite end of the spectrum in terms of being hyper hyper conservative as opposed to hyper hyper aggressive I think the chargers the right side here. I just want to see what number I can get before I actually bet it So not betting a five and a half i'm showing value there I want to see if the four and a half's cave or the five and a half's cave Once one of those cave, I will be willing to dive in but I want to see which direction that goes first If I can get a four and a half. I want it but Right now holding off So considering the dolphins plus three and a half uh the the patriots plus 10 and a half And the chargers minus five and a half but holding off right now the ones I do like as of now Washington money line plus 150 the titans money line plus 148 or three and a half you can get that The denver money line plus 112 and the rams Plus two and a half at minus 110 totals I like browns falcons under 49 and a half and the lion seahawks under 50 So we'll see how things go there Now before we wrap up we got to do covering the past year and recap What went down this past week on the college football side of things ed was one and one this past week Although two and one if you go with one of the leans that he mentioned ed had maryland plus 17 They lost that game by seven. Uh, so good showing by maryland honestly played pretty well the entire game Not a fluke he covered they just played well So he got maryland plus 17 there He had tennessee minus 10 and a half that one looked pretty good in the third quarter early fourth quarter Florida though scored twice to make it a five point game a wound up being there Game didn't close at 11. So I have to point a movement there for ed Uh, I didn't quite get the win But uh on the back door there by florida not really a back door because they had a shot to win that game But you know, uh, they did rally late to cover there So one in one week also ed did say he liked ohio state minus 18 and a half Uh, they won by 31 so hopefully he followed him on the lean there But overall a one in one week on the official bets for ed NFL side didn't go Super well, I'm not sure if this was true for you all as well But for me not the best week by any means I was two and four I had the the titans raiders under 46 and a half that closed at 46 I was at the airport and couldn't see that game so I had up my phone and Saw the the hollands touchdown was like oh boy. Here we go two point conversion Luckily the titans did did hold so I finished at 46 As the raiders missed two point conversion to get the win there Other who was the den room money line at minus 102, but I got bad movement there So it feels like a hollow win Not sure if I would have won that had Trent Williams not gotten hurt So even one of the wins I got felt bad So not the best week there other misses the misses for me were the cardinals plus four got good movement Plus three and a half the Steelers plus five and a half got good movement there I would not have won Even if that lateral at the end of not happened So that wasn't even a bad beat just a beat despite getting good movement there I had the cheese mine is five and a half Weird game all around and then last night I had Zeke alley under 72 and a half rushing plus receiving yards He finished the 75 the second he had that long like 20 or whatever yard it was rush I knew I was toast I didn't think it'd be as close as it was honestly to to still lose by just two and a half yards, but Once he had that long run. I was toast. So I'm okay betting against long runs for Zeke alley in the year 2022 So the fact that it didn't work out. I'm okay with that You know, I think honestly, that's true of most of them Tanner Hudson didn't score as well mentioned him 11 to 1 score touchdown for the Giants last night I honestly feel pretty good about the process for most of those. I think I you know Maybe I shouldn't have bet the Broncos, but that's one of the games that wound up winning I don't know. I'm on them again this week. I think that Maybe I should have been more reactive to the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo was starting public seem to like The 49ers a lot in that one. There was a lot of money on the 49ers too So I think the biggest mistake I made was one of the bets that won on the Broncos money line. So Odd week for sure Feel good about the Zeke bet feel good about the Steelers The Chiefs as well So, you know, not a good week, but I don't think it was a bad process week Odd most as outside of potentially the Denver one Ryan Williams, we had him on Thursday and Monday to talk about the full slate and then about the Monday night football game Ryan rallied a bit Monday nights. I'd close out the week on a high note He hit the Zeke Elliott anytime touchdown at plus 150 Also at the under on that game 39 and a half finished with 39 points there. So Good job by Ryan on both of those Loan mystery and last night with the Tony Pollard first half touchdown that was five to one So obviously not a full unit bet there, but two and one night for Ryan overall there Finished the week four and five overall got the Bears money line at minus 138 got to watch that victory in person as well Because he's a season ticket holder He had the Bengals minus five and a half against the Jets Jets never really the Bengals didn't play great But the Jets still never really had a chance to cover in that game. So those were the other wins besides the Monday night game This is where the bills dolphins over 52 and a half Eagles commanders over 47 and a half Bucks minus one and a half 49ers minus one and a half But good finish by Ryan on Monday And still overall good year for Ryan thus far JJ's aque recent bad luck on his props missed a couple by Finn margins He was hitting the Tom Brady passing yards under 22 45 and a half the entire game Brady got their super latest in garbage to Russell gauge Traylon Burks almost scored for the anytime touchdown That was plus 280 that got super close other touchdown props were Amon Ross St Brown plus 135 DJ shark plus 230 Then he had Joe mixon over 73 and a half rushing yards Um, that one didn't hit because mixon effectively got benched late in that game But good read by JJ on two other backfields He was on a Travis etn over 16 and a half receiving yards and part of the analysis there was hey You know the Jags are underdogs in this game. That should be more of a etn script versus Robinson That didn't happen But etn still hit the over it hit pretty early on he finished with 30 receiving yards there So even with the script not going to plan still got the the bet there for JJ with the etn receiving yards Other one was the Patriots backfield. He was talking about Ramon or Stevenson's role now props were not up at that time, but Stevenson Probably hit the over on every market. He had 73 rushing yards 28 receiving yards. He had a touchdown in that game so If you had gone rushing yards receiving yards rushing plus receiving yards, you would have hit on that one So bad luck by JJ on the the tom brady over the berks non touchdown there, but still a good process across the board so Disappointing week for us here on the podcast. I think for me I was on try to remain level-headed in terms of like now analyzing like was I correct in this and I think the Denver one is the one that I'm questioning the most right now. So we'll see move on to this week I think this week I there are numbers. I feel pretty good about if I were Predicting one to feel bad about next week on Tuesday when we're doing the recap it's probably the Washington money line maybe more so than the Denver one, but My numbers are showing value. I trust my numbers. They back test pretty well So despite a bad week this past week still feeling pretty good as we get set for week number four That's all we got here on the podcast for today big show every Tuesday We go through golf mlb and nfl big. Thank you once again to pitching ninja rob freben for breaking down his thoughts On tonight's strikeout props checking out on twitter at pitching ninja check out his work at mlb fox Nesson and peacock big. Thank you to branding adula akadua 13 his simulations He mentioned are over on number fire.com. He'll cover the dfs side of things on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed later on today I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We'll be back once again tomorrow in the afternoon Talking about college football week number five with ed fang and collin wilson for the action network That'll be a whole lot of fun. We'll talk to you then good luck with your strikeout props for tonight We'll talk to you once again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network