 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Another one Basil Chapman Friday and this is the end of the week middle of the month June the 17th and an extremely oversold condition is unfolding in many areas many stocks that doesn't guarantee that the market has to notice it in fact remember the market like you like a coin being spun heads of tails the coin doesn't know so what we're looking at here is that if you look at the technical side of the picture the weekly and monthly this middle chart is is the weekly this one the right is the monthly these are really poor looking charts and what it suggests is that we could start looking at some positions with a chance that they could be moving higher over a series of weeks they might not have formed the base their base yet but it's an opportunity what I said to subscribers is the first opportunity I'm looking at where I think we can start putting on some positions and using some of that really the huge amount of cash that we built up as a resource but even then in a market like this have we resolved anything in the oil situation well if you look at oil it's down sharply again today down 3.3 at 112.01 in the continuous contract if you look at the SEO which is the inversion the the short side of oil it's done very nicely having gone from about 18 to 20.43 right now but has it have we solved that resolved or solve anything in the whole oil area in terms of the distribution in terms of production that's still sitting there as really an issue a geopolitical issue in the sense that it affects so many countries so that's that's not really resolved if we're looking at yields yes it's been a lovely turnaround from the low yesterday I wear the TLT went to a hundred and seven was an 83 and just check the low was 108.12 that's right 108.12 and trading right now three points more than three points high at 111.73 nice action wait a minute nice action what are we talking about three weeks ago it was up in the 120 area 120 to 108 just in the most recent time 155 from December in six months from December down to 108 this is not a stock this is not an IPO this is not one of your stacks this is not one of your positions in the in the highly leveraged tech area this this is the treasury bond ETF the 20 year I share 155 down to 108 that that I mean that is ready serious all right so within that context that's not resolved at all if you're looking at the higher yields TNX.x look what happened here look at that spiral to the upside made it peak T it is pulling back now and it's almost at the high that was made at peak F in the Chapman wave on the 9th of May all right so let's go through these different different aspects have been talking about how could you really resolve anything of this particular point for an intermediate term trade the volatility index is an issue the VIX VIX.x it's trading down a dollar and a quarter at 3169 it did not make new recovery highs in the last few days even with the terrible action in the market the high of the 6th of the 13th of June was that exact thing of June was that Monday well 13th of June was a high of 30 31.37 sorry high of 35.05 I should type that in 3505 and here we are a whole week later with much lower prices in stocks and it's at 31.68 having not taken that out so in a sense that's a good sign but the fact that we're in the 30s still that means there's a lot of buying of some kind of it's called it security some kind of insurance so and if you look at the weekly chart you remember I drew this in as a resistance Chapman wave inside track repellent zone and that's been working since the 38.94 high back in January the 28th the week of the 28th Fed Russia Ukraine everything going on and yet we haven't taken that out so I'm looking at this and I'm saying okay for subscribers to my opening call this is where we can start stepping in just a little bit more to say what what evidence is there to say that we are extremely oversold and will that evidence be will that permeate the market by having a rally even if there's a lower load to come and then maybe Tuesday Wednesday of next week we start a turnaround that says okay now we can look at three to four maybe even five weeks of upside move it's going to take a lot to do that but there are signs there are number of signs a number of signs are saying that in the in the H pattern now let me go through separately in the H pattern the S&P took out the left side low of 38 10 back in May it made a low yesterday of 36 39.77 it's up only 21 points of 36 88 now but this is the area with the stochastic at 9% under 10% 9% the on balance volume making a W formation the stochastic nine period moving average that's the nine that is how do I explain that the faster moving average of the stochastic is just trying its best to turn over the above the green the green is above the red that's important the MACD is horrible the expansion of the vertical lines that's the histogram 0% line it's still expanding today maybe it's just a little bit less but it needs a lot of work to turn positive the nine period over the 14 no it's under well under the 14 and that means to to break above you would have to see the S&P somewhere filling in one of those gaps trying to get to the 38 98 30 38 yeah 38 98 to the 39 20 area over the next week or two without taking out 36 I'd say 36 32 would be really key support so this is the start of something to get those V shape turnarounds that we'd love to see for those of us who've been in the business a long time that VIX would have to be so disappointed in the market action that it screams into doesn't have to go above 36 54 on a closing basis but it should pierce it in today at least to say hey this is horrible action I'm desperate I'm throwing everything out with the baby with the bath and water but in fact we're not doing that so this is now a process and all I can say is that as a process we can step up to the plate but we don't we still have to have stops of widen the stops a little bit at this particular point but that's the way it is so I wanted to show that I wanted to show the QQQ within the context of the automation we took out the left side low we had three sessions to break in close sharp here about the left side low of 28.21 note sitting we went down to 269 28 so the process says now you've got to get a wise signal in the back to turn around IWF will support each other and I think up back there's a lot switch to discuss health chapter and take questions out at the time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect the harder and money-thinning gold this the golds flagship asset is the monk cod gold project in the northern territory of Australia this is Australia's largest unveloped gold project we are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district this is a large-scale low-cost project 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formations or cup formations it's so often that the price just has its move to the upside and then very commonly reverses and has to move back again to the other side for left side right side price time match and you don't have to have a crash it just comes down but very often going to the upside it works its way and then sort of stalls at the top coming down it has an acceleration to the downside like the last two three bars is a one-minute chart or like crash mode going from 3690 down to 3672 and here we are so we've got about another two three minutes to see if it's going to test the low that was made at 9 30 which is 3671 okay let's get back to our story here oh and I did want to talk about just the moving averages look at this the 200 period moving average once it broke down in the in the e-mini this is the September once it broke down in the at 150 yesterday in the afternoon at the 3789 level that 200 period moving was useless didn't even need it but as you get closer and closer and closer look at that the orange line because it became a repellent a magnet and then a repellent zone at some point today we'll see does it become a magnet again a 3708 and then move above it one to one to the upside we'll see it's options expiration futures observation big a big session today we'll see what happens let me go back yet to what I was discussing I wanted to go through a couple of things I'll do this on the way so don't forget I was asked about the fxi I've looked at it all week and I said yes the fxi's had a really nice move it made a peak in the chaplain wave about six seven sessions ago it's pulling back it's a 32.10 this is the China large cap ETF if it's able at any point next week to get close to 34 35 then the 35 35 200 period exponential moving average will become a magnet up until then it's kind of a repellent zone and you can see in the weekly chart we've just gone from the h pattern that I always talk about the lowercase h that can go to a lowercase m and there it is there's your second art formation it had a successful test of the left side low and it's holding very nicely right on in fact sitting right on the weekly 14 period exponential moving average I like the action so far and what I'd say is yes it is acting well but my biggest concern was we have enough trouble with with stocks in the United States we are going over to China you've got to know what your your limits are you got to know what your what what tensions can evolve and what the market could reflect very quickly negative action and even positive action so just know that and that's fine quab was the next one I was asked about quab which is this is the um a crane shares csi china internet etf had a fabulous move I haven't notated it but it always choose the obvious lowest low bar count each successively peak here it is peak a right there peak b right there next highest peak is peak c right there and I went to a d and these were other things can happen here we are choppy choppy choppy for the last week in a range between about 20 28 70 and 34 and we're at 30.86 right now digesting the gains it did make a higher high than left side low so the next left side high of uh early April so that says that's this is peak a the week oh peak a in the weekly chart right there I believe that's a b let me just check that out so that means the high was something happening I should know about uh yes so that's a little higher I believe this is a c I'll have to come back to it for some reason market uh it's not letting me do something here I'm gonna call it b for now I'll come back and check it yeah so this is starting to move up it had an Eiffel tower moved from back in 2019 screams up to 104 comes all the way back down in the shortest time frame that's what we call the Eiffel tower looks like an uppercase a straight up straight down the next question I had was would I look at the gdx let's do that now because I want you to go to gold one of the things that I always look at in the Chapman wave methodology is how quickly and how short in in in a length is the move from a low or from a high to at least a peak to your trusty in this particular instance look at the work that the gdx did it went from right here it went from a low that was made back on the 12th of May at 29 66 it goes peak a peak b peak c1 peak c2 and then it goes under the 14 period moving average and the nine period exponential moving average and pox 2d and then pulls back and then I didn't do this I thought I had I think I did it in gold in the in this in the pattern that I talk about since this is technical Friday look if I go from there to that trough and I go to the right so that'll become green at the moment it's red but all pink new and I put that in I changed that to pink because it was going up look how short it look at look at the effort it took to go to a peak d normally look what you get huge moves up to a d this is the tiniest little thing and cramped it makes the art formation takes out the left side low of the 12th of May which is 29 66 it goes down to 20 uh let's see 29 34 and now it's struggling so the gdx is telling me you've got to be a little bit careful here in the sense that the move to the upside while it's it's really impressive that under the conditions that uh gold is is holding well while the dollar has moved up so fantastic you went to 105.01 pulls back in the dollar index it goes to 105 is that correct 105 yes 01 and now we're looking at the 15th of june so over a month later it goes to 105.79 uh 105.79 and what happens is look this is the dollar index the technicals here aren't anywhere close to as good as they were before but there are still quite good uh this high right here look look the magd was strong stochastic was strong on balance volume was strong uh no sorry no on balance volume because it's an index but look what happened here the magd is good stochastic was good but now it's under 80 and the nine is still way above so the dollar is showing really good technical strength and the weekly chart is still showing absolutely fabulous strength i've got it as a t-slash c and the weekly chart and there's a leg c and the monthly chart it should still go at some point higher to a leg d so i'm coming back to golden environment the gold right now is down six and eight of these people put about uh dow is down uh 58 if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every monday morning i publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xu hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next 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goes up to a leg e and that was on uh june 13th at 1882.5 pulls back sharply didn't take out the left side low so in a sense that so far a successful h pattern but look at the effort that it took just to get to a leg e and it's not even close to breaking the really important high that was made on a pop-up the 5th of may of uh that's 1916 so i would say that when when and if the gold contract starts to trade you can't just pop up and do what it did before then fail if it can hold above 1900 that'll be the first sign and that'll almost certainly say to me there's a chance now that the dollar could start a bigger digestive phase i mean when you think 105 79 to yesterday's low of 103.42 a little over two points it's just nothing because the technicals are still suggesting money is flowing into into the dollar e u r usd look at this um that had a nice spike yesterday and what i said was yes it's a spike but unless it could continue high into the 1.65 area 1.065 area it's at 1.046 right now it's not good look how it's pulled back again this is the euro dollar currency pair look at the yen uh usd jpy look at this currency pair look at that it made a peak see i said i there's no other way i can count it as a p oh this is what i was talking about there was a chance that this chap we've instant restarted peak d i've seen this happen so many times over the last year and a half where even though you had a full peak a peak f and even a g and then a very sharp time-wise pullback a time not a price move but a lengthy time of a pullback and then a brand new this is like the stochastics under 10 percent under sorry 20 90 turns around nine-period moving average moves back over the 14 period in the u.s. dollar japanese yen currency pair everything here was extremely bullish even the pullback didn't even affect the line at all and that just says that the euro the yen still has a lot of strength left and it should go to a leg d above 135 i think was 59 let me just check what was the high 135 yep 15 59 and it should break above that to a leg d and then maybe next week we start we start to see the dollar and the yen pullback some so i'm i don't want to mess around looking at stuff that i haven't i don't really have a a good sense of of the reversal action other than to say until the yen starts to trade at 130.50 or lower so far the action to the upside seems to be the trajectory still seems to be to the upside aha now what i want to do is a question came in could i look at oh i h oh i didn't finish the gdx sorry just to say the gdx it's not bad and when you think that the dollar has gone to multiple your highs this is still very good action this tells me that gold i always look at gold as a currency of fear it is the geopolitical gold icon that huge investors i'm doing about countries i'm doing about banks i'm doing about the very very wealthy that's where that's where money drifts historically and yes there's been other things you've had alternatives like a bitcoin etc we got out of a completely out of our bitcoin we had huge gains done i'm not there yet i think there will be a trade in bitcoin but i just don't see it at this particular moment the 20 thousand 365 so the geopolitical scene says still says to favor gold and i think that's remember i spoke a long time ago i said i like to keep i used to call them four that's oily sorry bondy for bonds vixy for the vixx index dolly for the dollar and bondy vixy or is another one why am i forgetting that one bondy vixy orally and i'll get to in a moment but in the meantime i added oil for oily and i've said let's keep them all separate because if you can keep them separate you can think independently about each one they used to be very well tied together when the volatility of market goes when the market stocks were going down you would see money flow into bonds as a safety factor we haven't seen that i mean just look at this the tlt high of 179 back in march of 2020 that was the market low then the market had this huge rally but look at this since the since november december january when our market has been saving to the downside so have bond and look at the tnx tnx dot x look at that it's it made new highs yes it's a leg c just like the dollar is a leg c in the monthly chart and i think it will go to a d my target is that orange line which is at way back there oh um wow 50 what the high in the tl this is the 10-year treasury bond no sorry this is a 10-year yield uh in the high was 53 16 gets smoothed out but 53 16 and rear 32.7 and i don't know if it's going there what i can say is that i mean i'm in leg c in the monthly chart and there should be a d that's what i'm going to say there should be higher yields to come all right with that said i have a couple other questions can i look at the ibb so ibb made a dreaded h pattern i went to peak a peak b peak c and there's your d and then it pulled back also a very small move to the upside i do not like small moves to the upside to a d because especially if it's underneath the previous major high because it always fail not always but most of the time it'll fail and retest a significant low well the dreaded h low was tested and now it's at 108.80 i think it's getting ready for the chance of a move to the upside there's an alternate count that's a c and a d now a second by a cell mode in the weekly chart c and there's your d oh look at this now you remember i drew this in a long time ago i do this incredible art formation that was a load back in march i think it was a 2020 hey what happened did i just lose it you know i i change mice and the next thing i know uh let's see font uh no no i don't want that i want to click this yes so let me see status line compending trading app i went to the right where does it say general uh right axis there it is well i don't know how that must there it is right axis back again so look at this the load that was made back in so the load was made march 2020 and then it makes a hundred seventy four high in february and then it comes back to a low in may of 2021 that was my midpoint and what have we done we moved to the uh we've proved we've got two weeks to go to tackle the best side mode 15 are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you 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offer try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz i'm going to go back so i just wanted to show this i can't remember if i actually looked at it with the ice shares global timber and forestry ETF kilometers in the last two weeks below the support level it's down at 74 38 down 80 80 cents and the the Philadelphia housing index is down five at 332.75 that's that's not good action at all and you've got the yields yeah they're pulling back a little bit today but look at this 3.472 on the on the 30 year and the the blue the cyan went above i mean then this is this is not usually a good sign so let's close out of that and go to some of the questions we were looking at the ibb and what i want you to just show you in the ibb was oh look at this this is that peak d in the one minute chart ran up to the 3710 we made an automation same time same price value comes down and takes it out in two bars shorter that was the left side low of the took out in 30 3667 at 1021 and now we're trying to form some kind of a base but if you look at the 10 minute chart look at that 200 period moving average resistance and that was a great peak a because that peak c1 c2 was not pierced so that's a failure pattern took it out and did a one to one to the downside is really important the whole three 3650 3640 area in the e-mini it's going to be absolutely imperative to watch this is a day where options and futures exploration occurs anything can happen can they be excuse me can let me have something to drink here can they be a reversal later today rather than acceleration down remember there were two scenarios the scenario that i think would be the best scenario would be to have a lousy close today and then bad news over the weekend and then a whopper of a pullback on tuesday and then we can try to make a v-shape recovery that says this time we've got a really decent low but as i said before you've still got the problem with crude oil you've still got the problem with higher rates you've got inflation all over the show so i can only call it a temporary but i'm beginning to look at some areas that are just now starting to show a little bit of a little bit of signs that they're not taking out the left side low a number of stocks and one or two ETFs have not taken out that left side low from may in the arch formation and i consider that to be a good sign we'll see what happens the market doesn't hear me it's just doing its own thing and as i said this beautiful arch formation going over a three-year two-year period this is what we're looking at and so far the ibb the rust this is the i shares of the nasdaq biotech area ETF it needs to get it's 109 over the next three weeks it needs to start trading the 120s that's a long way to go though look at quickly pull back from the 119 area so that's the ibb the next question i had was the amazon yep look at amazon hasn't taken yes an example that i'm using it has not taken out the doji low that was made on the 24th of may of 101.26 even though i've been very negative amazon for quite a while actually the fact that it's held that is a little bit of a sign of positivness but the fact that the arch formation never produced a very sharp rebound but just a minor one says oh you've got to be careful because just a hop skip and a jump to take out that or it wouldn't want it to be a hop skipping and a dive to take out the low 101.26 that was made on the 24th a couple of questions i had i said i'd look at something today and that was we were looking oh did i write it down oh yes triple m we're looking at triple m yesterday oh another bad day down almost two at 129 round number this particular point the low so far today is 128.90 this is the age pattern in a very unsuccessful way and what i said is if they're 120 i think i said 126 if the 126 this area goes then it's going to be very difficult for triple m 3m company at trading at mmm trading at 182 128.92 not to get close to the low that was made in march of 2020 114 and since that period it's been up at the 210 area i mean what a move it's going to not yet cut in half but that's a big move the other one i said i'd look at was oh spx you had a call to ask about it and i said just in terms of money management if you just if you're getting just a little bit nervous stay in the position but you can take a little bit off just you know if you want and you can just plan to put it back this i've got this as a leg see it's actually extended today this is the s and p pro shares ultra ultra ultra what is it exactly called these things have such fancy names ultra pro uh s and p 500 short so it's very well it's in a leg d in the weekly chart so this is the place that you could have been in and how hell just held and not worried about any of the balances or anything anything to do with the upside other than the upside of the short position because the market was going down to be very well right now 23.01 another question came in could I look at um oh what was oh oh that's right high grade copper high grade copper oh taking out the left side low at 4.00 hey this is not good news at all excuse me this is a peak d in the arch formation taking out the left side low in a much quicker time frame this is now a leg c in the weekly chart 5.06 was the high backing something like march of 2020 of this year and here we are at 4.00 so copper continues contract still only a peak c in the monthly chart but wow we can do a you know i don't like the fact that wood this is the ice shares global and timber forestry gf and copper which had held so well up until three weeks ago are now really acting very poorly next thing we're going to look at is going to look at telephone uh one wants to look at telephone um you know i i i think you just said look at telephone but not not um do any um whether you're short or long so made a peak c1 c2 that's like a double top in the chaplain wave back in late may early june in the in the 21 was it 21 53 area on the 26th of may training now at 19 under the 200 period exponential moving areas i think of these um the the area of you know telephone atnt as a dividend company yes it's okay but i'm i'm looking at these dividend companies in the telecommunications area and say you know at some point there's going to be a lot of switch over switch of the market keeps coming down people are going to say i don't want to pay these high bills i want to find alternatives to the Comcast which was one of my favorites going into 2022 then turned around very sharply just over 60 announcement captain almost in half it's a 38 made a pd a very quick abcd to the upside and then pulls back sharply this is now an alternate count this is now gdb this is this is next c to the downside in the weekly chart i'm a little i'd be very cautious and oh oh of course i had a lot of calls yesterday and i had questions and i didn't get to so i said that i think that this is going to be a continuous notation in the chat wave and that is probably more like an f than a b at 182.40 on the 8th of june with a little dojo candle in cvx chevron well he's down to this company 182 to 147 look at that general out of that that's the other reason why i didn't get it because rather than the general part you see the wealth so it's pulled back i'll be back sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different 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refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the fibonacci 24 seven newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors hi folks we're back and we're looking at the Dow down to 2.35 to 2.25 the SQ down to 22 and we're looking at Exxon look Exxon made that top in the 105 area now it's at 86 look how quickly it's gone to the downs look at how long how many bars it took to the upside whoops look to the downside so this is just telling me that in the area of the energy let's say look at xle xle duffy wants to know yep there's your pgf doji candle at the high of a 90 1993 that yeah 93 31 on the 8th of june and look at this from from from from 93 area to 70 20 points whoops just like that so there are many signs that i'm looking at that are not your traditional signs for a low that should be made and it could be coming in fairly soon but it's really the individual stocks that i'm looking at and i think that that's really the area that that to me is most important so with that said we're about to wrap up you're going to have a long weekend i hope you enjoy the weekend and you got great programming coming up you've got Larry Pesavento coming up and next you've got uh think of swim you've got that's fast money you've got uh Steve Rhodes and Steve recorded his shows this morning at eight so to be replayed at his one o'clock time two o'clock you've got uh Dave White should be a wonderful show and Dave of course is today's options exploration we're going to hear what Dave is going to say later in the day today it should be fascinating and of course Tom O'Brien is correctly considered that this market is highly vulnerable and he's been looking at the downside correctly so have a wonderful weekend and check out my opening call my daily newsletter i'm just about to wrap it up and let me just do a real quick thing here i want to say that the VIX index will be your clue because it is options exploration anything can happen so the VIX trading at 32.86 there was starts to go into the 34th late today as the market remains very weak that could start to see consideration down today and make it happen because they're so some kind of a stoner because the VIX starting at the start of the split by the 3170 you won't know if the VIX starts to look sharply and it goes up to the top i'm excited have a wonderful day see you