 We don't know if this is the bottom at all. We have no idea. We'll get to that in a second. But bad news, finally, right? Got embrace. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com Weekend Update Show, happy Memorial Day. It is Sunday, 10.45 a.m., right? 10.45 a.m., right? After this, first barbecue of the day, going to my buddy's house, hopefully won't hit any traffic. And this is what life is all about, spending time with people you care about, all about memories, and all about decompressing the mind, the body, the soul, and making sure, again, you just learn how to smile every single day. So let's talk about the tape. Hopefully everybody has a great weekend. Tomorrow, the US markets are closed, so I'll see everybody back on Tuesday. So let's talk about the market. So once, the first day, right? If you guys remember, I mean, this is going back five months. Five months ago, the first update that we closed below the 50-day moving average, I made a video and the video basically said, hey, the fundamental analysis is very, very important if you're an investor, but you need that technical view to enter positions correctly. And honestly, obviously, if you started trading the first, last couple of years, only thing you knew was by the dip, by the dip, by the dip. And you got a lot of feedback of, what's the difference? If Amazon is at 3,200 right now, what's the difference if they came back from 3,400, it's going to go back. And this was five months ago. And my response to that, the counter argument with that is, yeah, all companies that are great are going to continue to stay great macro, but as long as there is supply, right? And that's the most important part in any industry. If you have more supply than demand, things are going to go south. And that's exactly what happened for about five months. And the point was, you could buy a great company, but buy it technically. You don't need to hurry up and buy a great company. You don't need to guess where it's going to be emotionally, six years from now, 10 years from now, three weeks from now, wait til at least it confirms macro back to the upside and you could get into the trade. So anybody who bought stock on that first dip below the 50 day moving average, and we know how important that was, well, five months later, we're talking about, well, we're five months underneath supply. And again, it's a really good view of technical trading versus fundamental trading. Again, if you love Amazon at 3,200 because it just came back from 3,500, but it's an underneath supply, there's a high probability at some point unless the market reclaims supply right away, it's gonna go lower, it's gonna go lower, it's gonna go lower. And this is the first series that I think brand new traders have started in the last couple of years, and finally realized that stocks underneath supply will go lower. The longer we sit below supply and put in a base below supply, the higher probability that your stock, no matter how great you think it is and how great it is on the surface, it's going to come lower, it's gonna come lower. And the moral of this story, this part of the story is, as long as you love the company and just wait for it to commit technically back to the upside, then you have a higher probability of the stock moving higher, same company, same time horizon, right? That you had when it lost supply, but now at least you have a technical fighting chance, and that's where we are today, right? That's where we are today. But again, if you guys remember the video I record, I usually take Thursday nights off, but Wednesday, my daughter had a, what does she have? Saw a podium, soccer game, one of these games. So I recorded a video on Thursday and Thursday was literally the first day, literally the first day that we were bullish. Not because we felt like we are, this is it, this is the bottom of the market, this is the generational lows, the market gave you signals, and that was the whole point. This was the first close above the five and the 10 day moving average, right? It's good, again, technical analysis versus emotional opinion of where you think the stock is gonna go. But this week was really aggressive, right? Especially Thursday going at the Friday session. I don't think we have to review Friday's session. I think anybody who traded Friday kinda knows what happened, right? Any tech stock that you bought above the previous day's range, whether it was Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, anything, okay? There wasn't a downtick for like five hours. It really wasn't. So anybody who traded Friday, that's done is done. We'll talk about the ramifications of what happens next, but it was finally a series, and I'm gonna use the word finally a lot, it was finally a series of events that led up to Thursday nights reclaim and Friday's close, and that was very, very important. Here's the cases in point. We finally, right, finally broke two weeks, or excuse me, two months worth of selling. That's a big deal. Again, that could have been all avoided if you watched the 50 day moving average first time on the close. We were sell buys pretty much every day. Even the days that were up in this whole channel, I kind of left those days alone. Those are either inside days or the days that the channels were just running up on one candle in the last hour, 40 minutes of the day. I didn't care about those days. And what usually happened is they rolled over the next day because they got stuffed into supplies. We talked about what we needed to see kind of around about slowly, but surely bottom. We finally, right, got sellers to be tired, okay? Sellers just like buyers eventually get tired. You could only sell stock for that much longer to finally come realize that, hey, maybe the stock is way too much linear down. The stock is way down, way down to the point to reassess, right? Really reassess its average to range. And once we started seeing the average to range started to shrink, you kind of started seeing a little bit of a clue that sellers start, finally starting to get tired right around here. That was the day we reclaimed the five and got rejected off the 10. So it was very, it was very, very important. We talked about this for months. What do we need to see also for this kind of slowly, but surely round about bottom to start maybe taking place? Again, we don't know if this is the bottom at all. We have no idea. We'll get to that in a second. But bad news finally, right, got embraced. What you saw was a slew of retail earnings. Most of them got absolutely destroyed this quarter. Walmart, Kohl's target got absolutely annihilated. But finally, right, bad news was starting to get embraced. You saw Costco come out with news, market really didn't react. You saw, you know, you saw names like Abercrombie and Fitch, stuff like that. They just didn't really respond. The sellers were almost numb to them. Again, finally bad news, the same bad news that was taken down in these stocks 25% just a week ago was starting to gas out a little bit. Again, sellers were on strike and they were just running out of ammunition. But the most important part of what we saw in the week, and there was some staggering numbers. And these staggering numbers were literally in the last two days, right? Maybe the last three days. You saw 6% moves on all the indexes, okay? Including the NASDAQ that put up almost a 7% gain for the week. Now if you look at the tally year to date, the NASDAQ is still down 22%, which is a mind-boggling considering they made back 7% in one day. But that's a good thing. And I'll explain to you why in a second. So that was very, very important. But most important part, at least for me, right? Going in from that Wednesday session, Thursday, a Thursday session into Friday, you're finally able to be comfortable looking at stocks from the long side because of all the things that we just talked about and not really fearing that every down tick is gonna pull Amazon down $27 on one tick of the futures. So that was really important. But this is the most important part. And this is why we don't have to go rid of it. We don't have to go into the individual trades, blah, blah, blah. We know we happen. For all you guys, congratulations. Phenomenal moves on Friday. The video went nuts. Amazon went nuts. Tesla from the overnight went just absolutely nuts. But here's the most important part, right? People talk about pattern recognition, right? You hear that a lot on social media. You hear pattern recognition. I think patterns eventually get nullified because of the program trading, like the black boxes, the gray boxes, the algorithms. They kind of get smart to it and they start putting on their positions maybe against the retail public at certain areas. But I believe in event recognition and pattern recognition, again, you can make a whole argument that there's a place for it. But I believe in event. I believe in interval recognition. And if you look at the chart, right? And here's the whole, here's our whole five month decline, right? Starting from the first day on January the fifth that we lost the 50 day moving average, right? Everybody see this candle, right? So this started a series of events for at least for the first three months that we were really moving lower, right? So look what happened. I just, I wanna show you guys this. And this is why sometimes the eyeball test is one of the most effective technical tools you could use, right? So we lost the 50 day moving average and we declined basically for the next three months. And look what happened here, right? Guys, everybody see this? This brown line, right? This is the first time we close above this brown line, okay? That brown line is the 20 day moving average. And in the process right here, there's two little candles. They reclaim the five, the 10 day moving average. And this is the first close over the 20 day moving average. And look what happened in the next three weeks, right? We had a pretty big rally challenging the 50, reclaiming the 50 and moving back into supply. Everybody see that? So the sequence of events, right? Not pattern recognition because there's nothing about a pattern here. All it was is a sequence of events, five, 10 reclaim, 20 reclaim, which was super duper important and which led to a three week decline. Now what happens next, right? They ultimately get stopped into supply. They lose the 50 day moving average. And look what happens in the last, right? In the last two months. The last two months, we sell off again. And look what happens. Look at the similarities, right guys, right? Five, 10 day reclaim, right? Five, 10 day reclaim, 20 day close above the 20 day moving average, 20 day move above the 20 day moving average, right? It's a sequence of events. It's not a pattern, it's a sequence of events. Now look what happens. Look where we are, right guys? Look where we are. If you've been with us, I've been hosting the webinar for over 12 years. If you've been trading pivots with us for a very, very long time, and you just know the most basic parts of the PS60 theory, and we talk about this on a nightly basis, because again, this is kind of what technical analysis is all about. You understand that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, right? We've kind of demonstrated that for years and years and years. So if you look at here, right? And this is the whole eyeball test. This is the first reclaim of supply. So the next measured potential of supply was the 50 day moving average, right? There was nothing from here to all the way here. So the NASDAQ had to move on the cues from 340 all the way to 352, right? 352 initially, they rested the next day and they continued the following. Now check this out. If you believe the theory, right? Supply to supply, we just reclaimed that 302. Remember, if you go back to one video, just watch the video on 302, we talked about the significance, how important that 302, 303 close was, right? There's just the previous video right before this one, right? Thursday night, we talked about that technical analysis is not subjective. It's not opinionated. It's either going to reclaim that level and push forward or it's going to get rejected at that level and get stuffed and roll back over. And Friday, we did exactly that. We reclaimed the 20 day moving average just the way we reclaimed it right over here on 315 that started a three week rally. We reclaimed the 20 day moving average right here at 302, closed at the highs of the day and look where the next supply zone is. And this is where if you're a bull, yeah, it's kind of cool now, right? You got 302 plus on the close. We closed roughly, what, 309? So we have room to the next supply zone almost at 320 on the queues, guys. That's my point of the whole video. Look at this. Look how much airspace we have. Now, is it a possibility? We gap up. Remember, we always play devil's advocate like we always do because again, we're not naive. We're not bulls, we're not bears, we're realists. We comply and apply, right? We apply all our thinking and sentiment, everything in between on the collection of data, data points all over the place. So if you believe in all this and we finally closed and it's the same sequence events, and good, is it possible to have another two, three week rally? Look, of course it's possible, but I like to take everything day by day, right? Day by day, I reevaluate. So for example, if we have any type of weakness in the morning on Tuesday, right? And they don't sell off the market after that, after the opening range print, you know it's a res day that we're probably gonna start pushing higher. But if everything goes right, and if everything goes okay, and again, I like to, like I said, I like to play everything on a day to day basis and then reassess to the next day. But from the eye test alone, if everything goes well, I think there's a shot we can get another multi day, if not week rally into the next supply zone of 320. Now, if we have a crappy day on Tuesday and something happens and we lose 302 on the close, then we're gonna roll over very, very quickly. Because again, it's all about technical analysis. So any close continue to build above 302, which were seven points above that that we discussed on Thursday night's video is super bullish with a high probability of a measured potential move into the 320 area on the queues, any close below that, obviously we go back to sell bias mode. So sometimes, you know, technical analysis, especially for new traders can be very, very tricky. Okay, there's a lot of moving parts, there's a lot of sentiment. But with all these things that we talked about that finally, right, that finally happen, and you see where we finally closed above the 302 area that's gonna replicate the series of events that started on 315, that if you're a bull, you can have a pretty good high probability test that if everything works out correctly, I think we can rally at least for the next few days to start off the week, if not the whole week itself. So that's pretty much it. I'm not gonna, you know, sit there for two hours to try to bombard you with more data. But the most important part is see what happens next, observe the data. Like I've been saying for years and years and years, there's no such thing as bulls, there's no such thing as bears. When I was sell buys for the last, you know, pretty much five months, it's because of technical analysis. It wasn't my opinion. I didn't want the market to go down. I understand how, you know, emotions rise and people are in bad moods. I get that. But it's all about where the market is, not where the market wants. So let me give you guys some ideas going into Tuesday's session. It's all tech heavy, for the exception of Disney. I kind of like Disney as well. Look at Disney, right? First close over the 20, it's mirroring, it's mirroring the spies, right? By the way, spies has room initially that for, you know, 419, 420 area. You can see the same thing. You see how the spies close over the 20 on Friday? So they're kind of one day ahead of us, right? So the spies are moving up. That's kind of the whole point of the NASDAQ first close over the 20. So I like Disney. I like Disney over the 20 confirmation. Above that 109.5, 110 area has room to 15, 18 if the market continues to go. On the video, completely engulfed, completely engulfed their earnings. Again, remember, first close over the 20 on Thursday, right? Another 10 points on Friday. Apple, if they can get above this whole channel, all these charts are gonna look exactly the same, guys. You may notice every chart is above the 20-day moving average. So if Apple gets above this whole range here, there's what, five, six points on a potential move. I like Adobe coming in through the bottom. Adobe actually reclaimed the 50-day moving average, which was super, super bullish. And again, it's not really a rock star setup just because if you look at, excuse me, it's not really a rock star, a rock star kind of an annotation of what Adobe's done, but it's gone sideways for such a long time. It kind of turned into a premium setup here. So if you look at the weekly chart, right? It finally reclaimed this whole area on the weekly chart. So if they could just confirm the 50-day average tomorrow, man, you got another 20, 25 points in the trade. Obviously, the other stocks that we always watch, Tesla, I think, needs one more day to get out of this channel to start moving potentially into the eights. I like Square, right? Look at Square. There's so many guys. If you go through charts this weekend, you're gonna see a million charts. You can literally put a million charts. I just put the names that I wanna watch. I trade all the time. I don't have to guess what their measure potential is. I know the way they're gonna move. And the most important part is to feel comfortable in your own skin. So that's it, guys. Let's hope for the best. If you are a bull, hopefully this is a good window for you to take back control. But it's something, again, just to put for the future, right? So if you ever see, and you just have a learning lesson to what happens next. So when you have stocks reclaiming supply, that's bullish. When you have, and that's risk-on, you're getting a little more aggressive. Maybe with your tier size, maybe multiple days. When you see your stock, for example, lose supply and start closing below macro levels to the downside. Again, it's not a gift to buy stock on the dip. Let it dip, right? Let it dip until it confirms back again. Again, I love Kathy Wood. I think she's a genius. But all she had to do realistically, and I've been saying this now for a while, all she had to do is hire a kid out of college, pay the kid 50 grand a year, and be like, hey, Ms. Woods, you realize I realize you're a genius, I get it. But boy, oh boy, you're buying stocks wrong. They're not cheap because they keep on going down. They're cheap because they're technically not reclaiming back levels. And sometimes it's just as simple thinking as that. Guys, have a great day. Have an awesome Memorial Day. Go get your rest, go get your hamburgers, go get your beer, whatever your drug of choice is, allegedly, and the most important thing is be happy. Guys, God bless Memorial Day. God bless, I'll see you all on Tuesday.