 thank you very much for attending today's webinar it's the weekly charting analysis with myself Jasper Lawler we're going to look through what could be a key week for markets we've obviously got firstly the Bank of Japan they're concluding a review of their monetary policy and obviously also setting monetary policy and of course the Federal Reserve markets pricing in a very low chance that the Fed hikes rates this time so it means they probably won't but obviously with expectations skewed so far one way certainly were they to surprise the market you know you'd imagine the reaction would be fairly volatile more likely though probably going to be a bit of inaction from the Bank of Japan and inaction from the Fed so we will be keying into what they have to say that's the big macro event of the week obviously hard to look past it really definitely a bit of volatility kicks back into markets in the last week or so we had a pretty quiet session of trading I mean some good moves in the oil markets and bidding currencies not too much direction wise but some big moves occasionally but in stock markets are very quiet that seems to have changed a bit and I think you wouldn't be too difficult to pin the volatility when I say volatility I just mean more movement so for example the S&P 500 if we pull that chart up that had been moving in such a tight range that the daily price change hadn't moved by more than half a percent in in going on two months but obviously we've had a big change out of that you know that change has been to the downside but we've seen some big updates as well my focus tends to be on the US 30 so since I'm talking about stock markets let's bring that up and it's something I first started alluding to last week and you know I think the theme remains that we've basically broken down so through a few key levels not only in this US 30 chart but I think it's some of the other major indices as well so it's not to say that we can't just rebound from here and the correction's over but to my mind the probability now is shifting towards this breakdown of the previous swing low suggesting that there's a bit more downside in order so if we pull out to this weekly chart now I've been referencing this previous record high we're down through that we're also as of last week now well as of the week before last sorry down through this swing low here down around this sort of 1800 mark 18 to 20 we've come down to what was a fairly clear cut old piece of support here dipped a bit below it obviously but basically in and around the 18,000 mark and rebounded back back as of last week we pretty much bounded at rebounded at 1700 rebounded right back to that old resistance that I referenced in last week's webinar so that's where we are we broke down through these areas of support and we've rebounded to test it so support turned resistance and that's that's where we currently found us find ourselves now will will the resistance break again to the top side that's obviously always possible but my thinking is that somewhere in and around this previous low up to that that old record level around the 18,370 somewhere in this zone it seems to me likely that mark is going to roll over again if it doesn't then I think we're probably moving up for a new test up at the 18 sort of 550 area this old swing peak here and if it does manage to sort of survive this then there's a good chance we push up to to new records as well so this is to me is quite key because we've had a change in the structure of the market we've kind of put in a lower lower high here made a lower low through this old weekly swing as I mentioned and we're up trying to challenge it at the moment if it holds then you know we're rolling over at least to test the low around 1700 again and then more likely down to the the 200 dma and possibly down to 1700 which is this old swing weekly swing down here which we broke through only the day following brexit and then recovered again afterwards that's quite a big level and then obviously the brexit low down here it's 1700 basically so that's the potential we got going here obviously the market was trending higher we pulled into a range now the question is have we broken down into what would become a down trend or if we just expanded into kind of larger range and we push up to the top again here so that's that's the kuna two scenarios but I'd be looking at but it's still either way I think there's a good probability of the market selling off in here and obviously if it doesn't then again you look to the top of the range I would say because I think we're in range bound conditions nonetheless it's not going to be an immediate break to the top side again you're looking maybe for the market to sell off around the top area here and support to that is a bit of intermarket analysis where we skip over to the the UK 100 and we see a pretty similar kind of dynamic so again pulling out to the weekly chart it's it's this it's this low down here we've got a low high on this side and a lower on this side and just about and we pushed through it we did rebound off those lows quite well the week before last we've gapped up this week but is this trying to suck people in for another for another move lower possibly so something I've got my eye on is we lose if we use this swing high here which is where we began the breakdown if you like through that previous swing low here where we made the lower low then in between this kind of zone here is possibly where there's going to be some interest at the 78.6 and the 61.8 and then we've got these swing lows right in the middle there which is you know that swing that's the daily swing low and that's where we've just tested the highs obviously you know no coincidence at the markets sold off from there so we could have already started to find the top or we could push a bit higher up to this towards this 78.6 somewhere again a bit like the US 30 if that does give way then you're probably looking at the previous daily swing up here at 6,890 as the next key resistance zone but we've had a breakdown through a daily here's the kind of general idea here is that we've we've not managed to break through the resistance we're putting a lower high then we've broken through down made it you know broken change the market structure a bit we're not making higher high higher lows anymore we've made a lower low and now we're pushing up and we're tracing that that move so does it resume its decline is that's kind of a possibility in here obviously a lot of this rests on what the central banks do this week by default if the Fed doesn't hike then obviously that continues the low interest rate environment which has been good for stocks for all these years the tricky thing is there is that that it may be what they would call a hawkish hold where they hold interest rates but they talk up the chances of December now that could actually be negative for markets and that could be the scenario in which we see ourselves if it doesn't pursue in the in the days leading up to it so you know looking at today maybe into sort of tomorrow through midday maybe 24 hours from now there's there's a possibility that the mass market pushes into this area to form its top before the Fed so we'll see and again a bit of extra confirmation seeing a similar thing in the the Germany 30 I'm down on quite a short time frame here before I explain kind of what's going on there I'm just going to show the same same idea obviously we broke out out of our kind of trading range here and then double topped you'll remember I'm sure you probably have on your charts as well but there's a decent trend line coming through here just through one of those tops as well through these peaks and then we seem to have double topped and then we've gapped down through the you know through the the shoulder of the double top so if I get rid of this purple thing maybe so I'm looking at here is just this this kind of short term swing and then see the 61.8 percent retracement fits nicely on that that daily swing and then actually the 78.6 level fits nicely on the the four hourly peak from the last from the last four hours so fibs seem to be working a bit here so we've come to the low can we get back up to that high or do we hold here and roll over again again if we do get through there then we're looking up to the the previous swings and you know if they give way then we're back into the range again just a larger range in FX markets the the dollar's selling off a bit today and that's obviously strengthening some of the other pairs but we saw a pretty massive sell-off in sterling on Friday it seemed seemed pretty out of left field but if you look in the context of the the short term trend that we're in you know it's in the right direction it was just a big move we basically took took cable right down to 130 again now you may remember from or let me tell you a short term chart there from last week's video that I had this 136 DI'd out as an area of support because it'd been tested multiple times we brushed straight through that and went that right down to 130 so that was a you know sort of 200 plus pit move pushing 250 pit move that we got on Friday so you know well done to any of you as short would mention of course that my my note at the beginning of Friday was that there's a downside bias given that we'd taken out this swing low here no actually I was talking about this it's higher swing low 132 40 so I was saying I was saying based on this the fact that we've taken out here the bias to the downside and then breaking through this low down here should take us down here in fact it even took us down to 130 so actually quite clear cut price action where there was a swing low there got a rebound broke down retested it again here with a little push above inch a day but closed at that level and then just dropped right down into through this support here and eventually found support just at the round number 130 so 130 you know the general context of what we're dealing with here in sterling obviously is we're trying to spread out my shot of it here what is the general concept and you know why did the market roll over here why does it keep dipping it's because we're in a range and there's no precise top and bottom here but on my chart I've just got 128 50 130 450 as the sort of maybe midpoint of the bottom and top of the range and so we basically got up into that top part of the range market rolled over started taking out some of those old daily swing lows and then just now now we're basically heading towards the bottom of the range again 130 you know we don't have to head straight down there obviously we could have a bigger correction and so if that if a bigger correction was to take out take place at some point you know 130 after obviously anyone along the market it's probably going to have their stops either below this 130 140 or below the one sort of 30 60 that I'd highlighted so a bunch of stops have been blown out there so anyone any big institutional money buying at 130 you know they'll have had lots of opportunities to to buy off all these people selling down here with their stop losses being blown out so there's you know maybe there's some accumulation taking place if you think that is happening that was the kind of basis of my short-term chart here is that maybe after this kind of push up here we're getting another drop into a kind of better lower risk area to try and buy into the 130 so maybe that would take place again in between that 61 78.6 and 61.8 kind of maybe in these mid highs down here drop through this maybe drop through this support a bit into this zone and then push higher that's a possibility if not another retest of 130 and then push higher likewise we saw some moves low in the in the euro pretty sharply not as drastic as in a cable you know it's really a pretty pretty messy looking chart still the euro so generally here we can say that the these kind of weekly swings are holding so looking here at this weekly chart you know we had a so obviously we're moving down here we came to the sort of 110 roughly couldn't sustain prices below it and then we had this big move off 110 took out this weekly swing here weren't able to close above it but dipped below it and then finally pushed above but we got just shy of 114 again what you could call basically the top near the top of this long-term range that we've been in and the market just started to roll over again because it's very trendless at the moment so just wasn't able to sustain the higher prices we got towards the top of the range now it's formed a lower weekly swing low here but it's also formed a a higher low here so we're kind of trapped inside this area at the moment and hard to really say which way the market's going i think where you want to start looking for the opportunities is if we do get a break below this this previous swing low here even with the false break lower then the market closes higher and you look for some opportunities for it to continue this upward drift or if it actually closes below then you know then with them it looks like maybe we found a little room to me at top and we're going down to challenge this low if not the bottom of the the longer term range again the messy chart and not not my favorite at the moment a nicer looking chart certainly though my mind though is is dolly yen this is this long term downtrend line still strictly speaking in a downtrend but it just looks like it's forming a base at 100 and so the result has been that longer term trend line forming a bit of a so you can see it's kind of worked here we've got a little false break here these two highs here a false push above held there false push above and we're basically just grinding down this long term downward trend line but we've also had a few nicely connected peaks through here which i've just drawn as a kind of shorter term dashed line you could call that line here maybe i'll draw a different kind of color maybe even red thicker line sort of that red line and then the 100 mark or even you know if you felt like it connecting these two bottoms you could say that we're in a kind of triangle base so we obviously don't know which way it's going to break out of that triangle you just got to be a bit aware of the the fact the pattern's in place so any pushes up to the top side towards this this triangle um i think probably you know unless we finally get the break higher you know the the risk is for the market to roll over from there and then this is a kind of short term area of support which again from this rally off the low the 61.8 has been holding the price level holding the price is higher and then the next level down be the 78.6 and then the 100 i think directionally hard to call i mean it's still strictly speaking long term downtrend and i think a lot of people calling for it to go lower but 100 is a big psychological level and you would it looks like there's some sort of accumulation taking place here um but obviously it could actually be some more distribution into the rallies any questions at all at any point obviously just always feel free to let me know um what do you mean by that Warren um the commodities priced in pounds bit tricky for me to show you that one actually because we only price the commodities in in dollars um so you can't trade gold in sterling if that if that's what you mean through us obviously you can do a sort of combination trade of sterling dollar and and one of the dollar pairs but it's not something i frequently look at but i'm about to look at commodities now um if you can explain explain a bit what you mean um or sterling it gets commodity blocks so yeah i'll be happy to answer as best i can in the meantime one of the big drivers today is that oil prices are pushing higher that's helping the FTSE obviously the energy sectors up so if you have a look at um the Brent chart here we've got this nice little trend line through here which explains how that basically this the rally up here ended fairly sharply but um we are basically in a in a trading range capped by 45 to sort of 49 to 50 really um looks like the upper half of that range is is declining but um overall you know based on based on the kind of weekly outlook you could say that well obviously we're in a trending environment here but now now we're in a range based environment so the best opportunities are going to be um down close to 40 um but obviously more recently 45 which is the midpoint of the range there's been some activity so a breakdown from the midpoint of the range at 45 um could open opportunities down to take it to the lows near near a 40 but i think that's just a good way to view even if you're doing some short-term trading if i kind of just completely clear up my chart for a second get all these levels off simply speaking you know what what are we dealing with here i mean we're basically just dealing with you know this was the environment markets generally are on the on the weekly on the weekly time frame you know now we're kind of dealing with this environment where really kind of prices are pretty much sideways so even if we're dealing with a bit of a downtrend in the short term here you know it's because we reached the upper end of the range and if we get to the bottom end of the range it's it's far from guaranteed and you know could end up being a double top and more price is lower but that's really where you'd start wanting to look for some sort of triggers whatever you use um oversold oscillators or you know reversal candlestick patterns etc for the range to be maintained that would be the higher probability trade um based on the current environment we're in you know sideways weekly trend but then obviously flipping over to the the the daily time frame with that in mind you know you're looking for the kind of lower risk entries so that's when we're looking for you know retracement excuse me sudden coughing of it you know into kind of higher areas of probability for for another sell-off and that you know we've got some here um we haven't been able to take out this low once we take up this low you know then you'd want some some rebounds back towards the low again to take us lower but um yeah we're in the midpoint of a trading range so generally they're kind of you know the uh the least kind of favorable probability trades because obviously it can just go kind of go either way and still be in this range oh that's just my short term gold chart let me look at my own so uh yeah similar situation in gold obviously if i if i move all of these these are the levels out the way we're basically trading sideways in in gold we've got the fed meeting this week which is obviously always the um key consideration for gold one thing that i've noted is that you know even if you're not necessarily trading the news or following the news you you know you're attending a charting webinar here so you know i'm assuming you put a bit more emphasis on the prices and maybe the news one thing to note with gold is that the environment the environment in general has been quite positive equities have been selling off a bit from their highs and uh you know there's a i think it's a 14 percent likelihood the fed raises rates in september at this point something in that vicinity very low probability the fed raises rates and then who knows after the us election there's a good chance they just don't hike rates at all this year at this point um but nonetheless gold has been heading down in in the two in the environment that should be positive for gold equities going lower and chance of a fed right hike going lower yet gold has been going lower too so weakness in positive news is not a good sign and if you were taking that information you would think that actually maybe gold setting up for a break below 1300 um and we obviously there's you know that that's if we pull out to our weekly chart again you know this was our trend as you know as the high high highs being made and then we come back test test the old high can't get through the resistance come back down big long candle that we can't get you know can't get through even the previous swing let alone the the old high here so signs of weakness in gold and so you know it's starting to look like we could ever move down to maybe this kind of old swing somewhere in this vicinity here there's obviously a peak there i've got a vertical line for some reason but um somewhere in this range i would suspect i would suspect towards the bottom end of that range minimum if we get through 1300 you know it's not to say it's all done for gold but it's just looking a bit weak at the moment so we'll uh we'll have to see what this this week's fed meeting brings okay so i think i'm gonna well i'll go say i've got a couple of minutes here so i'm gonna just have a question tell you why don't you ever see a bit slow on that one yeah when you're talking about the the commodity pairs obviously against the sterling so i'll pull up um how do we do it do we do we know i think we've got it have we got a price both ways so that should be the proper way of doing it um so this is just having a look at sterling against the the kiwi and um obviously a bit of a bit of a base former here at the 180 being the key kind of round number involved and then a quite you know quite well-defined rising trend line to some degree you know you could be more conservative down here or maybe discount those two spikes so certainly um you know if you're it it would look to me at the moment um that uh we're about to break down through this level i mean that's kind of how it's looking we've formed a you know a series of we haven't really broken the the trend in terms of lower highs you know this this this one 82 80 held up pretty well and now it looks like we're kind of pushing into the lows here but um you know let's see how today finishes if you get a kind of false move lower um then slightly know start looking for you at your buy setups you could at least get up back up to these back up to these peaks again because because it's been trying to base here for a while you'd imagine this is probably going to be quite a serious move lower in sterling should should this um should this hold up you know you're sort of looking at something akin to a doesn't work particularly well but you know it's that you know that's akin to a you know you'd be you'd basically looking for this kind of this kind of move to happen from here that would take you down to sort of 160 and further i think so certainly want to want to look out for and um i'm sure that's probably pretty similarly confirmed against the the Aussie let's have a look at that so sterling looking a bit firmer against the Aussie still kind of challenging the lows but it made it interesting that um you know that's one of the one of those occasions i suppose where you know if you've been trading the trying to trade the breakout higher and sterling against the Aussie you know worth checking against the Kiwi you would have seen that actually you know it hadn't made a new high against the Kiwi so the Kiwi wasn't confirming the Aussie and we ended up rolling over again but it looks like that kind of key level it's given way we're down at a good support so again you know look look look for a short-term price action here if it starts to take out some short-term highs or you know turns over oversold and then comes out the older oversold on the short term you know maybe this this support level can hold but generally you know my bias would probably be that's going to give way we're going to test the lows again as per the the Kiwi so yeah i think that's uh i think that's about it um obviously yeah we've got the the Fed and Bank of Japan that's really what it's all about this week not too much in the way of the earnings and the likes from the US or the UK so let's let's see what those meetings bring obviously the Bank of Japan is Tuesday night um Fed is um well i say it's one Wednesday morning London time and uh the Fed is Wednesday evening and the action and the currencies will be right then but in the stock markets it'll be Thursday morning so good trading it's Jasper Law signing out