 None of the presidential candidates can match me, says Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the new Nigeria People's Party, NNPP. And southern hypocrisy will help Atikua Buabakar to succeed Buhari, political pundits have stated. Well this is Plus Politics, I'm Mary Anacoff. After the presidential primaries held by the People's Democratic Party PDP last weekend, which produced former Vice President Atikua Buabakar as the party's candidate for next year's election, political leaders in the south have been accusing the north of betrayal. Two southern groups, the Pan-Niger Delta Forum, PANDEF, the Middle Belt Forum, have also led the charge. Now just as the southerners had begun to clamour for a southern presidency, anti-zoning elements began to voice out their beliefs, even though it was this zoning formula that produced past presidents. The south is obviously not happy with the way things are as regards to the zone and the next president where he might come from. Who should they blame or hold accountable while joining us to discuss this? Francis Chilaca and Shegwensho Piton, both are political analysts. Thank you so much gentlemen for joining us. Thanks for having me, Narayan. Great. For the Nigeria. Great, great, great. Let me just start with you. The Pan-Niger Delta Forum, the Middle Belt Forum, a lot of people, even in the south west, have continuously asked for zoning of party tickets to different parts of the south. In fact, they have just said, we need a southern president. But then what happened over last weekend that produced former Vice President Atikua Buwaka has had many people speaking out against the People's Democratic Party and again also speaking about the fact that soudners may not necessarily be ready to produce a southern candidate. But what are your thoughts, especially from what happened over the weekend last week? Thank you once again. So, you know, I don't think anybody that has been watching political events over the last decade or thereabouts would have been surprised by what happened over the weekend. I mean, it was expected. I don't think the PDP would have done anything else. I don't think any other candidate would ever be going to take that ticket. And the reason is very, very simple. In spite of, you know, the sentiments about rotation, you know, between the north and the south and what have you, we must remember that at the end of the day, the people that are involved in all of these calculations, you know, and strategizing and all of that are politicians. And to them, the overriding interest is their own interest. So, you know, the emergence of Aladji Atikwa-Tubaka was more about which of the candidates those politicians felt to the greatest chance of defeating an incumbent government, you know, regardless of whichever candidate that that's incumbent government or incumbent party eventually presents. You know, so in the eyes of the delegates and what have you, they felt that whether, regardless of the zoning arrangements, at equals to the biggest chance, that's not to say, you know, that's without prejudice to the very show of shame that we saw with how money became also became a major factor. But observers will tell you that the money alone wasn't going to be enough. If money alone was going to do it, then we came would have won, but we came would have won because, you know, the news is, I mean, you know, the information is out there, which regards to the dollars that were flying around and what have you, so money in itself was not enough. This was about interest, you know, and I think that the interest of the People's Democratic Party, the guys that were making this show felt was best served by the emergence of Aladji Atikwa-Tubaka and that's what we saw play out. But do you think that the reason why the PDP necessarily went for Aladji Atikwa, the delegates, let's use the delegates now, not necessarily the PDP, allowed for the former vice president to emerge yet again, did you think they were looking at mostly the likelihood of, you know, others not being able to withstand what the ruling party or whoever the ruling party would be fielding, I mean, come this weekend, could it have been about that, could it be that they were afraid that maybe all of these other candidates did not have the kind of rich that the former vice president does have, and again, looking at the former vice presidents and all of the other presidential aspirants on the other different platforms of political parties, including the NNPP and of course the ADC that also has at least 12 presidential candidates, you know, in the running, does Atikwa really stand the chance or do we see something somewhat of a stalemate coming, you know, down the line? Yeah, so Aladji Atikwa-Tubaka remember is a seasoned campaigner, is a seasoned warrior and when you look at the field, if you look at the playing field right now, outside of the ruling party, there really isn't anybody that has his touch up and that's just the truth, you know, he has run for the presidency numerous times and he hasn't done particularly badly in spite of what you might want to call the baggage that appeared to have surrounded him, his person and his personality in those previous elections, he hasn't done too badly, so if you, is it Governor Wiki that you're going to present as the opposition candidate or who, I mean, which or is it, is it Bukalasa Raki, you know, and all of those other people, even a Kwan Kwan So with the influence that he wields, that influence is limited, significantly limited to a specific legion in the north, once you step out of that legion, he doesn't stand a chance, you know, but if you look at Elijah Tukwabaka, he's done it before, you know, in 2011, he won votes all across all of the entire country, so yes, I think that, you know, the calculation was more about his chances in the polls against a ruling party that is incumbent and I'll have the machinery of states to support their, you know, their candidature. If what you just said, the last statement you made is anything to go by, you're talking about the fact that the former vice president has run, in other words, he's been given an opportunity by the party, he was canvassed for by the party, in other words, they, they tried to make sure that he had likeability across the board and that's why he was able to, again, pick up that ticket. But then if we're looking at the Kwan Kwan So or let's say, let's say Governor Wiki, if they were to give those people an opportunity, don't you think they would also somewhat win that likeability being that, like you said, the PDP does have a structure across the country? Well, yes, you could, you could, you could push that argument or that perspective, maybe with the Kwan Kwan So, because he doesn't have some, you know, he's been around for a while. He has, you know, allies across the country, you know, in Lagos, in Southwest, maybe even to a much lesser extent, maybe in the Southeast, and to much lesser extent, maybe in the South, South, you know, so you could argue that, yes, if a Kwan Kwan So gets the full support of the PDP, maybe he might also have not done too badly, but you cannot rule out the, the influence of the personality itself. Remember that Nigeria, the Nigerian political space at the moment is all about personality close calls, you know, we're not, we're not, the, the institutions themselves really, really don't carry that much weight, you know, and, and that's the reason, for example, why the APC against all odds went for a Buhari candidates in 2015. It's all about the personality. So the article personality, you know, the, the fact that he's been a vice president for two terms, and he's wrong for the presidency, there are several times, this is, I think this is the third time, if I'm not mistaken, the fact that he, of course, is very, very well resourced, you know, he has huge, huge watches that the party itself will meet to rely on, given that they are not in government at the moment. They don't have access to our resources, our commonwealth and the sector. You know, so, yes, you might argue that maybe a park was so might have done fairly well, but it couldn't have done as well as article did. And as far as I'm concerned, forget about the weekend candidates here. I think that was dead on arrival, because, you know, by virtue of the nature of the politics that the gentleman practices, you know, he's not a very, very popular and likeable person. Remember, look, if you look at the article, the guy is a very widely politician. He knows the right sound, sound bites to issue in the right places. This guy has invested his life in building acceptance across board. So he's married a Yoruba woman, he's married an evil woman, you know, and all of that. These were all strategic steps that he's taken over the years to send himself to an entire country. You know, you can't equate such a personality, maybe with a weekend or even a conference. So I think his celibacy was a major factor in his emergence, you know, at that convention, more than anything else. Now, let's move from the PDP to the ruling party, the APC. We see, you know, a lot is happening. A lot has even happened within the week leading up to the, you know, the ruling party's primaries, which is coming up soon. We've seen a shift in date over and over again. Many pundits have said that the APC probably has too many candidates and they do not know which to pick. Some pundits would say that the APC was waiting to see who would emerge within the PDP before they were able to make a choice. But then we also have seen, let's come back to the south because we're talking about the south here. We've seen the southern candidates in the APC. They seem to outnumber candidates from every other place. We're seeing more of them. But then would we see the same hypocrisy play out when it comes to the APC as to a southern candidate emerging or holding that flag, you know, come the primaries day for, you know, the APC? Because many are saying that the south just is clamoring. But then when it comes down to it, we're not as supportive of one another as we should be. I would like for you to see if you agree or disagree with this. I mean, look, before you that argument to the ruling party, you have to start that argument with the opposition party, the main opposition party, the PDP, you know, the hypocrisy of our politicians is legendary in proportions. You know, Iran calls the high heavens. So in one breath, over the last two and a half, maybe three years as the elections drew close to that, a lot, most of the southern politicians, governors, the governor's forum, the legislators, you know, and the rest of them have been insistent that, you know, power must come back to the south, right? Then the primaries come up and there's this, there's this, there's quite a number of southern candidates or candidates that you can sell in the south. But they didn't get, they didn't get the votes of the delegates from their own region, because that's the only way that Aladjah would have defeated Governor Wike with the margin that he did. It means that a huge chunk of the people from the south voted for Tiku. And therein lies the hypocrisy. So on the one hand, yes, we're saying one is southern candidate, but when you now hold up that supposed desire against their personal interests, political and financial, we all know which one to pass, which one eventually took the day. So therein lies the hypocrisy there. Now, if you move that debate to the ruling party, it's even more, I think it's more complex because, like you rightly said, the majority of the candidates that have emerged or that have indicated interest in the ruling party are from the south, right? So talking about the hypocrisy, one would have expected that knowing fully well that at this moment, the opposition party has gone for an arrangement of pragmatism and have gone for a candidate that can give the ruling party a good run for their money. One would have expected that the southern elements within the ruling party would align very quickly around one of them. And maybe the one that will stand the best electoral chance at the polls. But, you know, maybe it's early in the day to talk too much about this because their families are around the corner. But if anything, if all the intrigues and all the stories that we've been hearing is anything to go by, it's probably going to be a very bloody battle. And there's going to be a lot of bloody nurses at the end of families. I suspect that there's going to be a joker. You know, so the recent statement by the president to the governor's forum is probably an indicator that they're planning a joker of some sort. And one, you know, is to take people that are highly connected to the corridors of power to know what that joker is likely to be. But it takes me to something that it takes me to something that I have been, you know, tinkering on why the president should be the one to determine. I mean, we have governors, we have delegates. These are people that should have a right to decide whether it should be a consensus. And of course, correct me if I'm wrong, for a consensus to, you know, be sacrosanct, it has to be agreed by all parties that are involved, even though the AP would say that APC would say that, you know, consensus way would be the best way. But then we also see that we have, you know, big figures. We have people who are strong men in quotes within the party. And the interests, you know, differ. I mean, let's start with the likes of the former governor of Lagos days. And then we have the vice president. We also have former governors. We have a Rocha, so called a child. We we have so many of these people, including the Senate president, Laowen. And so these are very strong personalities. And you talked about, you know, a joker. If now if if what people have been saying, the pundits have been, you know, talking about the fact that if the PDP goes with a northern candidate, then the opposite, the ruling party might also want to go with a northern candidate in order to be able to, you know, match them. But do you necessarily think that we as a country are at a place where we are looking at where you come from, or we're looking at who's able to steer the ship in the right direction? You know, the the police station. In Nigeria at the moment and the and the considerations, even of the suffering masses are sadly very mundane for want of a better expression. So really, like you said, we should be looking at who's the best candidate for the job at this time. But that unfortunately appears to be a distant third of what consideration, as far as these politicians are concerned, and as far as quite a large chunk of, you know, even the voting public is concerned. People are more concerned about where somebody is from, where should go and all of those things, you know. So it remains to be seen how this is going to play out between the candidacy of the former governor of Lagos and the current vice president, the current Senate president and maybe a potential dark horse in the clergyman who has said, who has declared that God has shown him that he's number 16, president 16. We'll see how that plays out. I think probably those are the biggest contenders. Now, I doubt very strongly that the APC will make the political strategy error of presenting the Senate president just because it's from the North. And I say that because, you know, again, just like I said, with regards to Attiku Abu Bakar, Alaji Attiku Abu Bakar, you know, Nigeria is still a country, our politics is driven by personality calls, strongmen, rather than strong institutions. This is a huge factor. Who is Ahmed Lawan in the political equation of Nigeria? He is the Senate president that is not particularly charismatic. But he's served in the National Assembly for at least 35 years. So that question, who is he? Exactly. Exactly. But that exactly is the point for somebody who has been, you know, more or less in the corridors of power as a public officer for that long. You would think that he would command more clouds and more respect and more influence across board. Remember, the key factor here is that whoever is going to contest against Alaji Attiku Abu Bakar at the moment must be able to swing influence across board, across the Niger and the Benoist. So for me, the APC, I'm very, very sure you know, because the politicians are very strategic creatures and very sure they won't make that mistake. If the APC presents that gentleman, then very, very likely two scenarios, one, the PDP wins or? Mr. Shepidon, are you still there? I think we lost to you for a second. Mr. Shepidon, are you still there? I think that we lost that connection briefly. I'll try again. Mr. Shepidon, can you hear me? OK, yes, I can hear you now. OK, great, great, great. We lost you for a second. You were trying to say that it's either the PDP loses or what? Yes, so if the APC were to make the strategic error of presenting the current Senate president, then what you would have is two possible scenarios. One, Alaji Attiku Abu Bakar will win, you know, by a significant margin. That's one. A second possible scenario that a lot of Nigerians would be hoping for is that the current movement, the current momentum that is gathering behind the candidacy of Mr. Peter Albi becomes a beneficiary, you know, because, you know, that gentleman is beginning to rustle feathers, you know, that there's a lot of he has captured the imagination of the Nigeria. He has captured the imagination of Nigeria. And so if the two major parties don't play their cards right, Peter Albi is waiting with the wings to take the day, you know. So and I'm sure that the guys in the APC know this and I'm sure they'll play their games right. So regardless of whatever the concentrations about North and South dichotomy and what you might be. So but again, like I said, we have to wait to see how things are played out in a couple of days. Talking about ruffling feathers, let's look at some the video that's been trending of the former governor of Lagos States. Some people would call it a meltdown of sorts while he was meeting with heads of government in the Southwest. He he did make bold to say that he gave President Buhari the opportunity to lead the country. He also talks about Governor Dakbar Birna. I'm sorry, he talks about other people, you know, that he made a way for and some people would call that a sense of entitlement. And and some would say that, well, he's saying that he has been a kingmaker and it's time for a kingmaker to be made king. What are your reactions to that video and the contents? Mostly said in Yoruba, obviously, but it was translated because you're Yoruba. I'm sure that you understood every bit of it. What did you make of it? Do you think that the former governor is sensing that there might, like you said, be a joke of sorts that might upstage him and other members of the party or is there something else underneath? So so so one of the strongest indicators that gave me personally as a king observer of the process and, you know, indeed, somebody who is actually involved, you know, I'm also involved in this process on behalf of the Third Force. We're trying to build concessors, build alliances and build coalitions to give the two able twin brothers a good run for their money. So as somebody who is involved in this process, listening to Ashwaju kind of made me smile because, first of all, to put that that meltdown, like you called it, because it was a meltdown, to put that meltdown into context, you have to realize and recognize that this gentleman has his ass right on the walls of Asorok, whatever is happening in those places, he hears about them, right? So for him to have come out to say those things, it was a cry of desperation. It was, it was, this was a man that had seen that, that has seen that, you know, things are not going this way and is now throwing the kitchen sink. He's basically throwing tantrums at the president and reminding the president that you would not have been here today if it wasn't for me. Therefore you must reciprocate. Therefore you must know that it is my turn, you know, and all of that. Thank you for staying with us. Apologies for that break. We have been speaking about the zoning formula for different political parties. And of course, we have been speaking with Shagun Shopitan, who's a political analyst and he's of Ant Network. Shagun, because we are almost out of time quickly, wrapping up now, I spoke earlier today with the presidential aspirants for the NNPP, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwan Kwaso on the readiness, mental readiness of Niger, the average Nigerian to embrace new political parties, other political parties, other than the APC and the PDP. And he seemed to be very optimistic as to the fact that Nigerians are looking for something new. For someone who works with, you know, social, you work with the, you work with NGOs, you work with people, civil society, you are into voter education. Do you think that Nigerians have come of age to embrace other political parties and move away from the norm in closing? Yeah, Nigerians are very, very ready from all of the feedback that we get from all the engagements that are ongoing. Nigerians are not just ready, like they're desperate, but you have to define what we mean by Nigerians when we say this, because Nigeria is a classic case of the tale of two cities. We have two Nigerians. We have the Nigeria of the downtrodden, very poor masses in quotes, who really will do the bidding of their masters. And then you have the latent dominant voters who have never really participated in the process because they are disenchanted, either because they believe their votes will not count or because they believe that whoever is going to emerge will not serve their interests, right? If we look at that second Nigeria, they are all desperate to see that third party, that third alternative, that third option emerge. So what needs to happen? What the likes of Madam Kwan Kwan Sok must recognize is that the only way that this will work, the only way that any of those parties, whether it's NMPP, whether it's Liberal Party, whether it's AGC, any one of them, the only way they're going to spend any chance, the slightest of chances, and it will be a slight chance because we're talking about two behemoths that have been around since this Fourth Republic started. The only way they will spend the chance is if they align and they work together and they forget their personal interests. We cannot have two presidents. Kwan Kwan Sok cannot be president and Peter will be president. Somebody must be president, somebody must be vice and then others must be either ministers or members of the National Assembly. So if these parties, yeah, if these parties can come together, then mainly, just maybe there might be a chance. Well, Shagu Shopita is a political analyst and he's of ACT Network. Thank you so much for being part of the conversation. Always a pleasure to be here. Thanks for having me. Thank you so much for being part of the conversation. Well, we'll take a quick break. When we come back, we'll discuss former Governor Rabiu Kwan Kwan Sok and, of course, the NNPP as he gets set to take over the party's flag come the National Convention. Stay with us.