 Well, thank you so much for having me here and everybody's sticking around, you know It was a little bit dicey as to whether I was gonna go Be able to make it today, but I'm very happy. I'm here. Although I it was we're talking and it I've been it's actually worked out that you get one less hour of happy hour So we'll try and make it as worth your while as possible. But what I want to talk about today is I Just want to talk through some of what the strategy that we just released the design actually for maintaining maritime superiority it's an exciting time because this thing is hit the street I'll talk a little bit about the process though before I Really get into the substance, you know We got this the original idea the kernel of the ideas for the design Really together during transition and then you know Relieved I'm a greener on the 18th of September and on the 19th of September Saturday morning We got the four stars all together. Most of them were in town one I think everybody was in town and and we started talking about it then and we You know it grew stronger by virtue of that Discussion and then we opened it up to the three stars and all along We were it was three stars and SES as I should say right the senior SES is so civilian leadership right along with us the whole way it got stronger still and then just probably three four weeks ago now rolled it out to the entire Navy leadership the flags and SES is at a conference and still you know it was a A permeable Thing still open to input and even at that time it got stronger still and all along the way There has been sort of this steady degree of ownership and buy-in as people saw that this really is you know our idea As a Navy in terms of how to go forward and so now we're we're promulgating we're in execution and as you can as you will discuss here this afternoon and even still you know, we've got to be mindful that It's a very complex environment. It's a complex world environment complex threat environment even our environment the blue environment is complex you think you know everything, but you've got to Respect really that we don't right and so even as we step into this Design and we start to execute around along the lines of effort that I'll describe We're very mindful that we're going to have to assess ourselves closely and adjust as needed And so I consider this discussion Really a an element of gaining further understanding of what the design is saying And so I look forward really to the question-and-answer period Because that is what allows you that understanding that deep understanding is what really allows for decentralized Execution, which I think is absolutely critical to Success in the era in which we operate right now And so you know the the neat thing about the idea of distributed lethality is Not just the lethality, but the distributed part right and so you've got this distributed force Which understands commanders intend to the degree that they are able to take care take advantage of fleeting Opportunities to see and respond to things quickly and so These types of sessions are critical to make sure that we have thought through as many contingencies as many Possibilities as as we can so that when we leave the room, we've got that much deeper understanding of the plan Okay, so with that we'll get rolling and let me see Okay, so the idea here is that I'm You know, I propose I hypothesize that we're in a contest for maritime superiority Okay, and the key word here is contest and it has been some number of decades that we have really been Contested on the high seas okay, so that is sort of the thing that drives my thinking forward and Often in fact most often when you talk about national security issues even maritime Security issues the concentration is always to talk about the teams that are involved the competitors in You know the the competition but what I have really focused on is The fact that you know since how we're voting and I got commissioned there in 1982 together Like the character of the game has changed so much and is changing faster still almost day by day That if we don't address that we're just not going to be able to Remain competitive not going to be able to achieve our Potential or worse. We're not going to be able to even maintain superiority over our competitors. So I want to talk a little bit about the character of the game Okay, I see this in terms of three forces that are acting on us right now That defined this changing character, you know, this is no new thing to anybody in this room this global Maritime system the system of seas and oceans the traffic over those oceans the geographic choke points Should be very very familiar to everybody in this room It really goes back to you know when we first set sail and started to trade and And establish security. We have you know merchants and navies on the water But I will tell you that While the geography has made has remained much the same the activity is Much much higher. So, you know, I can think of sort of my career if you will and you know three steps one is when I was commissioned in 1982, you know, we had the Cold war in full swing Bipolar competition with the Soviet Union. So that was the that was the World into which I was commissioned about late 80s early 90s wall came down and We had pretty much unmatched superiority on the oceans, okay and since that time since 1992 on this system of the merit season oceans Maritime traffic has increased by a factor of four All right, so if you you know snap a chocolate in 1992 and you fast forward to now four-fold increase which is you know vastly outpaces the Rising in the world's GDP which is increased by about 80 percent almost doubled As well There are parts of this system that are accessible now that were not accessible even a few years ago Okay, so The Arctic is one region The extent of the Arctic ice this last September was about 30 percent less Then it has been if you average it over the last 30 years All right, and it is the fourth lowest value ever since Satellite records have been kept. Okay starting in about 1979 and that receding Ice pack has opened up Transit routes, you know particularly over the north of Europe and Russia that are going to have Strategic implications, and we've got to watch those very closely That northern sea route used to be open for about two weeks per year now going to be open by For a six weeks a year other projections for 2025 And that route cuts up the the transit from Europe into Asia in half And so that's going to be very closely watched by anybody who wants to move Something from Europe to Asia in addition in addition to the traffic on the surface of the seas the Accessibility of the seafloor has increased not only because of the receding ice You know the Arctic climate change But also by technology which allows us to more easily get access to mineral deposits oil deposits gas oil What have you and so all of that has become more accessible and more accessed over these last few years Deep water and oil and gas projection is expected to increase by another 50 percent in the next 15 years And the mineral deposits are also in that much more accessible So if you fast forward, you know, that was the traffic this is sort of an indication of where some of those mineral deposits are and And there's more right this is sort of the naturally occurring resources, but there is also a growing Infrastructure on the ocean floor and so this represents the undersea cables that connect us You know one continent to another That run along the ocean floor 99% of the internet traffic that happens runs through these cables. Okay, so Extremely important. We think that this is you know, it's we log onto our computers It's all completely accessible to us there right at our keyboard But the fact on the matter is that it runs through these cable. There's an infrastructure associated with this and just like The physical system there are choke points There are nodes and those nodes can be exploited and give rise to Opportunities and vulnerabilities to which we must be paying attention Okay, so you have this one force which is the rising use the rising importance the rising competition and the contested System of seas and oceans traffic increasingly used Areas increasingly accessible. This is also sort of a transition slide to introduce the next Global force, which is this rise of information information system global information. It is pervasive Okay, much of the information runs over these undersea cables and Just to give you a sense of how fast this is changing IBM estimates that 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created every day okay that quintillion that's a lot of zeros and What that really means from a practical standpoint is that? 90% of the data that exists in the world today has been created in the last two years Okay, and that there's this exponential acceleration in that regard and The cost of entry to participate and compete in this system is going down as well All right in 1995 about the time that the wall came down One gigabyte of memory cost about six hundred and twenty five dollars and oh by the way That was the biggest hard drive you could buy them right that was the maximum size hard drive That size you have that much memory a gigabyte of memory today Is trivial it costs about a nickel all right and the The maximum capacity of a hard drive is increased by a factor of six thousand right to six terabytes And so you can see you know this Technology that enables more and more use of this information system cell phones as you know and you've heard have more computing power than the entire system, you know both in Houston and certainly on the Lunar module and the spaceship that transported it when we landed on the moon in in 1969 and these links that connect people continue to multiply as well So this is getting again more pervasive and so the very first commercial server that feeds it and supports this system came on board in 1993 and In the first quarter of 2014 There were 2.7 million servers shipped around the world Okay, so you can see you can get a sense of this acceleration not only of the Infrastructure that supports this information system, but the information that has carried on it 90% of the world's information produced in the last two years and it's not just these cables You know and I'd ask you just to see again the structure the nodes that are associated with this but if we go out into space a lot of that information is carried on satellites and You know again here You've got about 1,300 satellites operating in orbit, but you just look at that picture. It's not completely uniformly distributed There is structure. There are nodes. There are opportunities and vulnerabilities associated with that Okay, third system. I'm interested in is the rate at which technology is introduced and you can see right now that all of these forces are interrelated right the information system acts and Impacts how we operate in the maritime system and in fact accelerates our Activity there the usage of that system and the competition there on and similarly the rate at which technology is introduced Accelerates the amount of information traffic that is carried on all that infrastructure and technology that's produced and so here's just some graphs that I'll spit spin through pretty quickly the US patents granted as a function of time you can see you know that very familiar exponential curve All right, here's another one in terms of the capacity of private manufacturing following right along and the third one being the rise of the internet right the number of I Think it's the number of servers. I can't quite read it here, but you can see this This exponential almost vertical pace of improvement in increasing performance there with the internet and so you You see that this third force the introduction of technology is Is another thing that's it that's quickly accelerating and it's not just the technology itself But it is being adapted and adopted. Yeah, we're getting darker and darker here. So I'm Starting to wonder what's going on You know this technology is being adopted faster and faster So if you look you know out at the left-hand side of that chart you get that's the Telephone, okay, and It took you know a number of years 35 years for I'm sorry 46 years for 25% of Americans to get a telephone in their house Okay, you come today With the smartphone that that same amount you know 25% of the American population had a smartphone in seven years And when Facebook was introduced it took three years for 25% of the American population to jump on and have a Facebook page Anybody in here have a Facebook page? None of you guys All right, okay, this is gonna be a harder lecture than I thought Okay, all right, but we'll keep going all right, this is PowerPoint. I know you're very familiar with that All right got it all right So so there's these these forces that are acting on our Environment that are changing the character of competition in the modern age and these forces really you know You start to look at this daddy It could almost send yourself being pushed back in your seat by the acceleration that we're seeing in the environment okay, so I'm sorry. I'm a nuke and so I've got to draw a graph and so you know you get this sense of You know just throw down a couple of axes performance over time and it you know all of those lines Kind of look that shape All right, there's this sense of this exponential type of increase in performance and You know it is not all Moore's law right that technology piece is not just Moore's law But it's also advances in material science advances in a genetic science advances in artificial Intelligence and so forth and so on you know Moore's law is actually kind of Moore's edict right he did Told his team. We're going to achieve superiority by doubling every 18 months and so far they've been able to stick to that but there's so much more that is involved, okay, so this is the Potential curve if you will all right This is you know sort of a Maritime bureaucracy that has been acting certainly has been increasing Okay, but you know is at a point now where I believe if we don't change the way we're going to do business and And I say bureaucracy, but there's there's more to it than that of course if we don't change the way we do business if we don't Get faster and more agile We run a great risk of falling well behind our potential and worse falling behind our adversaries And so the fun part is you know, where would you draw? Where would you strike a chalk line on those curves if time is along the bottom axis the x-axis? Where would you say we are right now? Anybody want to take a stab? Okay, maybe right about there Okay right just where we've Sliced right there at 2015. Okay, and it's a super interesting time Right as as the tech but the performance curve has just crossed kind of our historical trajectory The gap is opening But it is not widened to the point where maybe all of us are feeling that sense of alarm and urgency And nervousness in our gut on our best, you know Most calm days we might be able to convince ourselves. We still got this under control and you know the current system will be okay And I would argue that it's just going to get wider unless we change. Okay But there you know So we talked about the character of the game and it's important that we also talk about the teams in the competition All right, and so I see these breaking down into three groups and I don't talk about them in tears But I do talk about them in groups and as I've said before in one group There is a group of great powers great power competition is back and so again for the first time in 25 years We are really in an era of great power competition in another group We have other powers. I don't think we would define them as great powers, but certainly Considerable powers I wouldn't define them as regional powers because I think everything has a trans regional global dimension Right if you think about some of those forces that are acting on the environment Information system the maritime system the technology those are global forces and as we become increasingly globalized Those forces come under more stress more contested more competed. And so these forces are Not great powers, but they are neither regional powers. They are just another aspect in another category of competitor and then there is this third competitor yet, which is the challenge of transnational terrorism, which has proven very resilient very hard to to Root out and will continue to challenge us going forward. And so you know if you if you go back to 1982 certainly when I have a road that I came into the service even back to 1991 you see that the character of the game has changed a great deal and the players of the game has changed The competitors have changed as well All right, let's see how these two can merge together, right? So we'll go back to a Description or a depiction of the maritime system and we'll take a look at some of the traditional Nose the choke points the geographic choke points super familiar to everybody in this room And what I've done is I've drawn these yellow circles with sort of a traditional radius of a You know a cruise missile, you know Anti-ship cruise missile Okay coastal defense type of a cruise missile and you can see that largely It remains kind of at the choke point. It remains a very regional You know confined type of thing at the geographic choke point Take all of those forces that we just described apply them To a security type of a context where you now have these forces enabling much longer range Which with much greater precision? 800 miles is not You know stretching the imagination in terms of the capability of those systems That's what the world looks like when you draw an 800 mile circle around some of those choke points It really starts to become a suffocating Type of a challenge unless we address it. All right, so this is how you know the character of the game The comp competitors in the game can come together to really pose a challenge All right, so back to the performance curves. We now can add potentially a Competitor curve All right, and again, you know you think about that very interesting part of where we are Right about even slightly ahead of our most challenging competitor Slightly behind the potential curve and the slopes Which is the interesting part maybe not working in our favor right now and so you can see this need to Accelerate to learn faster to get better Okay, fourth force Even as these challenges become more complex as the character of the game Accelerates forward and becomes faster more challenging as the as the competitors Also become more numerous and more challenging Our budget is likely to remain under pressure For the foreseeable future and you can see here, you know kind of our projected budget And when you apply inflation our buying power and so again, no new news to folks in this room But that's our that's our future as we can foresee it and best predict it right now. Certainly The planning factor that we should use and so it's clear that we're not going to be able to just spend and buy our way out of this We've got to be thinking about new ways to do business as I've said before Okay, so in this environment In this accelerating Environment security environment that we've talked about security and commercial environment with all of these new competitors Why and what is the purpose of the Navy and I think our mission statement has remained the same This is pretty much right out of title 10, right? So the United States Navy will be ready to conduct prompt and sustained combat incident operations at sea That is our mission from title 10 will protect America and preserve our strategic influence in key regions of the world and that challenge now stretches from the seafloor to space from deep water to the literals and in the information domain as well and we've never fought alone and I don't see that change in going forward and so we'll have to do this on terms that Include our partners and allies and if deterrence fails We will conduct decisive combat operations to defeat any enemy and so that remains our mission our general approach to Continuing to meet our mission in this accelerating changed environment Really is to address these four general challenges, right? The sea system is increasingly important and contested information system increasingly important pervasive Lightning fast operating in near real-time anywhere in the globe Technology is being introduced and adopted at an accelerating rate and the budget will remain under pressure We respond and we will Challenge our ability and improve our ability to operate from deep water to the literal if you go back to those 800 mile circles you know that's going to require us to Be as sharp as we can in blue water This is not going to be an uncontested approach to shore for power projection We're going to have to work our way in there and from the deep floor ocean floor to space We're going to mainstream information warfare in response to the amazing potential That's brought about by the increase in the information system We're going to learn faster And our process are going to become more streamlined so that we too Can adopt that technology and put it to best use in our security challenge and then with respect to addressing our challenge within a Pressurized budget we will look to combine things in more creative ways so that those combinations of Capabilities will be Greater than the sum of their individual parts and this is not without historical precedent, right? so that one of my favorite examples there is At the outbreak of World War two Radar, thank you know thanks to some of the great work that had been done by the US Navy The Office of Naval Research a radar was pretty ubiquitous, right if you were a high-end Military you had radar in fact the Germans probably had the very best radars kit by kit at that time But it was the British An air marshal doubting who stitched those together in a network that allowed Britain to defend itself with this home defense network and really was Critical to their winning the battle of Britain. It was stitching together the radars in a network that allowed them to You know achieve so much greater capability than individual radars operating on their own even if kit by kit That the Germans had a better set so not without and there are other Examples as well, so this is our general approach Going back to our set of curves here I know there will be a quiz on this at the end so You do not get any drink tickets unless you can draw this set of curves You know when we take a look at combining our current technologies Accelerating our adoption if we do all four elements of those response I believe that you know with the creativity of the people in this room the bright minds and in the fleet and throughout the Navy It this will allow us to achieve Performance that is greater than just the potential Offered by technology it is the combination of all of those forces With the creativity of our people that would allow us to achieve performance that will outstrip certainly the potential by technology alone, but also our most importantly our Competition, okay, so how are we going to do that? Well First we're going to start with our core attributes. We're going to make sure that our foundation is solid When we talk about decentralized operations as I mentioned at the outset It's fundamental to have a very clear and thorough understanding of commander's guidance So that when you're out there operating on your own You know exactly what the boss would expect when presented with a challenge Just as important is to make sure that we've got our values straight And so you know we spend a fair amount of time talking about this in the design the importance of our core values I think that you and everybody else who raised their right hand at one time to swear and oath to protect and defend the Constitution did so because You were attracted by the values that that represented You were attracted by the idea of being part of something bigger than yourselves And so we need to make sure that our behaviors as an organization Remain as consistent as possible with our values as a profession And so the idea behind these core attributes is if we use these as criteria For our behaviors and our decisions if we act with integrity Accountability initiative and toughness Then we will be in pretty good grant water right will be fair in the channel on course and our behaviors will be consistent with our values When that doesn't happen, and I think we've all been in organizations where that's been questioned you know That say-do-mismatch Causes our people to leave and the best people will leave first Because they just don't tolerate they know it can be better They know they've got opportunities. They know that they want to work for a high-class organization We are that high-class organization, and we need to continue to strive to be better there Okay, and then we'll have four lines of effort, and I'm going to go through these quickly so we can get to questions Our first and most important line of effort is to strengthen our navy team. All right It starts with people all that great technology that we talked about. You know, that was the brainchild of a person All right, it just didn't fall, you know grow out of the ground And then you know once you have the idea about the technology It also has to be built right and so for the shipbuilders and the equipment builders in the room You know how hard it is to build some of these things to the standards And precision that's required But all of those builders and those manufacturing processes are designed by people and executed by people And finally we take these exquisite warships and we hand them off to our sailors in the fleet And those people will operate them and achieve the maximum potential and so it's we do everything By with and through our people and that's all of our people right Certainly our navy team would include our sailors our navy civilians And our families and you don't have to think too hard to broaden that out To that special relationship with the industrial base Many of whom are here in In living color Okay, we're going to learn faster We're going to do everything we can to achieve higher velocity learning And it's going to we're going to do this at every level in the navy. This is not going to be At the top down. This is not going to be at echelon one or echelon two You know that idea is that the lines of effort in this design Are scalable Okay, so that even down at your command level at your o5 command even down at your department Even down at your division or your work center You can find some way to pile in and learn faster Take care of your people and execute along the lines of effort in the design It is scalable. All right and learning is scalable as well There's been a tremendous amount of work done learning science learning technologies That'll allow us to learn faster and better at individual level at team level You can stitch these trainers together I just came up from pennsacola last week and they're doing terrific work to try and really get a Current suite of simulators on board and they were very excited about the next generation Which is going to be delivered there and piloted in the next few months That'll allow us to just learn so much faster the sets and reps required to do our business effectively You can just get through those so much faster and and we you know, we all Are bear the scars of the first run-through of computer-based training And you know, I cautioned everybody who was walking me through this to be very skeptical And you know many of these people who are doing this are master chiefs and warrants that were there When we did this the first time and know what it looks like and they're saying this Is a completely different animal. This is ender's game Right where you can't tell reality from simulation. It's kind of that good All right, we need to take advantage of all of that in our navy and just learn faster Uh As I said, we don't do anything To maximum effect if we do it alone And so we are going to expand and strengthen our network of partners as powerful as the united states navy is In many respects it is a node in several networks Right, it is certainly a node in the network of the joint force And you know, in fact our closest partner Is the united states marine corps And they even they don't even appear really in this line of effort. They're that close They're back, you know, they'll be in the next line of effort Which i'll describe talking about operations and war fighting and so you'll see the word naval Through this design and that is absolutely on purpose because we are shoulder to shoulder with our Partners in the department of the navy at the marine corps Just outside that is our We are a team on the joint force We are part of the united states government the interagency process We need to partner more with industry All right at the strategic level Partner as closely as we can particularly when resources are short, right? There's no room for misunderstanding all of that misunderstanding results in wasted money wasted Expense wasted effort. So we need to understand each other's strategy as closely as possible need to partner with academia and the labs the research institutions and then Offshore if you will we need to Excuse me partner with our allies and partners overseas to really get a global understanding To you know security in all of the regions in the world where we Strive to have strategic influence Okay, so there's this idea of expanding and strengthening our network of partners And then There is sort of right in our wheelhouse This idea of enhancing naval power at and from the sea, okay Both at and from And we need to make sure that we are as sharp as possible I think that this is exactly The center of gravity for all of the distributed lethality work Albert rodin and i have had many conversations about this You know, how are we going to build a navy where essentially any sensor can connect to any shooter? And apply any applicable weapon to that target That's distributed lethality in a fully Informationalized environment that takes advantage of not only stealth in the traditional sense But stealth in the magnetic electromagnetic sense Stealth Decoys spoofs the whole thing right and I know you've heard about that But this is where distributed lethality comes in and so we're going to Sharpen our skills in deep water maritime combat We're going to sharpen our skills in all of those Areas where our competitors are challenging us just below the threshold of traditional high-end competition this kind of gray war That's been talked about We're going to sharpen our skills in mainstream information warfare And we're going to get that baked in right now. We're still my sense. We're giving it a lot of attention But it's still something that's kind of layered on at the end. We go to our traditional war fighting communities Uh surface always start with the surface and I swear to god, that's the way we start It's not just because I'm at sna that I say that but um, and then uh, you know, uh Naval aviation some re undersea warfare And then information warfare. How does that get baked in from the start? Okay, and so that's really it Of just sent some time talking about the environment that we're in that not only have the competitors on the field changed But the character of the game has changed right playing the game the same way we did Even 10 years ago is not going to be a winning strategy. We could have the best defensive lineup in the nfl in the league But if we can't get on and off the field in time and get set in time to confront the no huddle offense We're just going to be penalized and caught for too many men on the field and unprepared for the snap And we will get beaten and so we need to get better