 Great, thank you. So I'm Doug Arendt at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. It's a pleasure to be here I'm gonna go very very fast. So I've got a bunch of slides. I'm gonna try to be a mixture between entertainment and and provide you some good information And this is going toward the solution space. So Jake basically laid out a problem Which is how do we turn our carbon emissions? Peek them and then turn them actually aggressively down and this is The pie chart of where emissions actually come from globally and I think it's important to recognize what he said It's the bulk of them come out of power and transport or go to provide power and transport Power actually goes into buildings. So building buildings in a correct manner is really important And then what is the carbon emission of your power and frankly how much of your transport at least? Surface transport can be electrified or fueled by Low-carbon fuels those are kind of the key questions in terms of the low-hanging fruit of actually where we have solutions today that are implementable and affordable And the key thing is how do we think about those? How do we include those in development pathways so that their least cost solutions and Frankly, how do we account for those particularly in this audience in terms of economic modeling and thinking which may not actually ever be part of? economics classically economics research But it is part of what I call bottoms-up technical analyses And there's a very nice marriage between the bottoms-up analysis and the top-down Economy-wide modeling that some of you do and certainly many of others do Which can bring you this insight in terms of what's going on technologically So let me give you a snapshot of the state of these technologies. So that gives you a bit of background So this is a bit of just these are going to flow by themselves I'm going to tell you about that state of current technologies There's going to be a series of maps down here going to get you to look at them They're about the growth in markets of key renewable technologies as well as LEDs and electric vehicles as well as the reduction of cost And the key thing to look at each of those is that costs have reduced 5060 80 maybe 90% Over the last numbers of decades markets have now reached an incredible tipping point and then in fact Clean energy particularly renewable power has been 50% of all global power Investments per year Over the last at least five years or so it averages about 300 billion dollars a year right now So this hundred billion dollars a year that needs to go to developing countries actually might be fairly achievable if we Increase this 300 billion to five or six hundred billion dollars a year and this Mobilization per se that was done in Copenhagen Actually implies that they help leverage private investment. It's not going to be public dollars that go into that hundred billion dollars per year so the question is is if that Story that I just said is true about the cost reduction capacity growth etc How much renewables can actually get built into a system? So for those that don't study energy There is a classic myth that says you can't do very much with renewables Actually, there are 15 or 20 countries in the world that almost have a hundred percent of their power for renewables Most of that is from hydro and we'll come back to that at the end, but there are other countries particularly here in northern Europe where they get 40 50 or 60 percent of their power from wind and solar and That actually is expanding and that is now technically and economically feasible And I'm gonna tell you a story about how do you take advantage? Particularly of these indigenous resources that are not fossil fuels in the ground so there's a bunch of stories here Analyses that talk about the potential of creating much more or achieving much more clean energy Particularly around electricity and transportation. Those are just a bunch of studies and more importantly There are now 150 plus countries in the world with clean energy or renewables targets the installed capacity each year of Wind solar biomass Geothermal and hydro together is more than a hundred gigawatts. So that's more than 100 new nuclear plants Built every year out of clean energy, which is in fact 40 more Nuclear power plants that are on the books to be built in the next 25 years So one should think about that and in fact there are solar plants being built in Saudi Arabia now Delivering power under a power purchase agreement for five cents a kilowatt hour and in Nevada I think for 3.6 cents a kilowatt hour the Nevada one has some subsidies built into it by the way But just so you know that whole line of things that you just saw there was about what's happening in different countries and Where their commitments being made to clean energy? I think one of the most interesting one is in fact The island nation so we talked about Hawaii, but there are many other island nations. They have a distinct I'll call it value proposition to change to clean energy because most of their power has come from bunker sea fuel imported fuels very expensive Average cost of electricity for example on most islands and Hawaii is an example 35 to 40 cents a kilowatt hour and Renewables can deliver it at about a tenth of that or sorry at about third of that So there are four themes in this I'll call it technology innovation piece And it's actually not just technology and I want to come back to this because I'm going to go through each of these and Put some in developing country context. It's about technology. I've told you about that It's about policy innovation and they mentioned a little bit about that going forward It's also about finance innovation and so that happens all the way down in in developing countries where there's incredible creativity in terms of marrying Cell phone charging and cell phone services and cell phone payment systems with power systems for homes or villages and things like that All the way up into the climate bonds and climate financing which goes off into the end of the capital markets And then there are business models which have changed from you and I have to purchase something to How about if I lease it to you or how about if I just sell services to you or how about if I sell Charging services for your cell phone because that's what improves your economic development so that you can You can talk to the markets and actually sell, you know from rural villages The the agriculture at higher prices a lot of innovation. They're all powered by clean energy This one's a cartoon about how power systems change and I know most of you are not power engineers So I'll try to describe it very simply and you'll see this evolution in power systems Which is today's system is on the left. It is what most of us actually don't ever think about There's a power plant somewhere. In fact, there's a coal power plant just across the water there if you walk around It develops power it sticks it on a wire and where does your power come from it comes from the light switch Or it comes from the plug in the wall and that's all you know when you pay a bill, right? However, that system is changing pretty dramatically and it's changing very dramatically in developing countries and in villages where you have Diverse resources solar wind even small hydro It may be even diesel in a lot of places today We're trying to get rid of that of course because it's both expensive and the power generators break down and Kids drink the diesel because it's in coke bottles and things like that There are all sorts of horrendous stories about why diesel is a bad thing to do But that system has multi multi multiple connections to it So the power system itself is evolving. That's a lot of technical innovation going on and let me just keep this going So let me share with you a story about how could a country and here I'm going to use the u.s Because this is where we did the study, but there are other studies actually generate almost all clean power and Typically if you're not thinking about power, which many people don't most people don't You would never ask the question. Could you get the bulk of your power from renewables? Well now the US is asking that in fact there are some leaders in China asking that We just signed an MOU with state grid corporation of China This is that the large power come power generator operator there And so this shows a map of the US very published study. It's around on the online If you look at it that shows what a power system in the US would look like in 2050 with 80 percent renewables We did a study looking between 30 and 90 percent We then looked at detail at an hourly basis of how that power system would operate and in fact it meets today's reliability requirements at the same economic cost as it would be Relative cost for power If you had done an economy-wide carbon tax or a cap and trade system and things like that Now it doesn't mean that there's not leakage into other parts of the economy But it does say that you can at least achieve it in the power system Lots of details here in terms of which renewables get built in a lease cost economic model So this is a capacity expansion model. It's got all sorts of interesting micro economics in it as we go forward and Where that power comes from now one of the key things to remember is that when I say 80 percent renewables It doesn't mean 80 percent variable renewables. So that's what most people complain about They say no the wind the wind doesn't blow all the time and the sun sun doesn't shine you need storage while storage is Not the silver bullet to how systems need to operate. I'll show you a little bit of that This is at 80 percent. It's about 45 percent variable And in fact the whole system will operate reliably at today's reliability requirements at least an hourly basis With that much variability in it. It's the same amount that Denmark's achieving etc. It comes from everywhere There's balance and there's trade. So there's economic trade-offs, of course And this is the list of things that you can do if you want to balance a system like that So you can think of lots of different mini systems among villages that have these Characteristics and are working together to balance or you could think of the South African power the southern Africa power pool Or you could think of even a larger grid in fact this chairman of state grid China came out with a new book called global Global interconnectivity where his vision is you take high voltage DC lines and you interconnect continents And therefore you balance out the global electricity system very bold vision. I don't know if that's politically feasible, but we'll see so What does this system look like? Let me show you just a quick video of The power system operating fictitiously in 2050 in the United States This is by the hour and you can see Plants coming on and in the east when the Sun comes up and then the Sun comes across the US And you see the solar then light up on the west in the in the afternoon and you know while it's already dark on the east coast That's what the system operates It's a lot of dynamics and it works through it But it actually works at least at an hourly basis. So this is just a calculation and a visual of what that looks like so Why did I tell you about all that power? well the question was is can we actually reduce emissions and in fact if you Generate 80% of your power with renewables it happens It's not linear of course, but it's very non-linear But it does come out to be that you actually can get 80% reduction in carbon emissions because the bulk of what you offset is coal and natural gas So that's a very good thing And in fact what you can then do and we've got this built in is you electrify more and more of your transport So you become you start to decarbonize your your transportation as well at least your surface transportation And so the question is is really what's happening on this technology front the finance front the policy front and the policy front As we go through it this shows what's called levelized cost of electricity projections for 2030 It's out of a recent NREL study called annual technology baseline And this comes to what many people ask about different competitiveness of wind and solar versus coal and natural gas Etc. And here you can see and I quoted some numbers already from today 2015 where solar is at five cents a kilowatt hour in certain areas and those cost projections are Continuing to go down one can think that maybe solar will be a two or three cents a kilowatt hour on a levelized basis by 2030 that beats coal even at today's coal prices and certainly possibly at future coal prices And it doesn't even include the externalities which I would I would certainly encourage each of you to think about when you're doing your economic Calculation and it's not just the co2 externality. It's the particulate matter externality. It's water water requirements and water vulnerability Requirements particularly if you're in arid climates to think about water cooled power plants and things like that So there are a lot of pieces on the on the on the externality element If you're gonna do I'll call it evens to evens economics analysis to think about clean power for development So that just shows those things on the policy front The climate piece that Jake introduced is in fact a significant driver But it's not the only driver And I think that's really important because China for example is moving toward capping their coal and toward cleaning up their air because predominantly they want to clean up their air and If I don't have you've been there, but I've been there a few times this year sometimes it gets really bad And then there are all these other policy concerns. And so this policy dynamic is Different for different countries and it's different even in a region in a different country So it may be that you want to promote clean energy in rural villages because it's actually Lease cost it's actually Flexible it's adaptable you can start from a small solar system to a village system and you can grow the power requirements without large capital investment and Provide all of the quality of service and all of the economic opportunity For the for what the rural village needs and then at some point in time you interconnect it when and if needed to a national grid and That flexibility is incredibly attractive financially And it also meets the requirements and the needs of The population so these pieces are very dynamic. This is not all of them. Of course, it's just kind of my Idea about how policy dynamics all change here. And of course you've got you've got many others Finance innovation. I talked about that very quickly. This shows the growth in what's called green bonds So this is in the capital markets. So this is where companies are actually Investing and and buying into projects Putting them off into a financial product into the capital markets and selling those assets and the and the amortization of those assets Into the capital market structure. That's very important because it brings Trillions of dollars of potential capital into the clean energy financing system and that's very very important That's on top of all of the innovation I talked about before in terms of cell phone payment systems leasing systems things like that that is making it Very affordable or more affordable. Let's put it that way. This includes crowdfunding, by the way There's a very interesting map. I didn't throw it in here of a dozen or more crowdfunding Platforms for clean energy investment including those for rural villages in developing countries or Programs or projects in the US or in Europe Most importantly, I think we want to come back to the climate piece but not think just about the mitigation side One of the most important things to be thinking about and I would I would implore you to think about this going forward is about resiliency and So I introduce it here in this in this figure about climate water food and and and energy interaction But one of the biggest pieces to think about particularly in development economics is adaptation and so the the the combination of mitigation and adaptation in a simplistic way is to think about how do you make climate resilient infrastructure investments which are long-lived and Unaffordable now so that you don't leave stranded assets there and also promote the development aspects of that That's really important and it leads to understanding Particularly hydrogeologic cycles how much water is coming? We've got Brazil in a potential deep crisis right now because 80 or 90 percent or so of their power comes from hydro And they're seeing a major drought and they're not they don't have a good set of options about low carbon future power Many people have probably heard about the drought in California, etc. So complex interactions on that front I only leave you with this thought that so maybe it's more than just quote sustainable development It might be called a resilient development going forward So there are lots of different things to think about there's a lot of innovation happening in this clean energy space It is the low-hanging fruit of what really can help achieve this the the climate peaking Carbon peaking and turn that turn that pathway going forward. So I Look forward to your questions and thank you for the attention