 Hi, this is Gerhard Leonhard, Media Futurist in Basel, Switzerland. Welcome to another edition of Goode Tube. I want to talk to you today about the fact that our world has been completely turned upside down. I mean, people call this inversion, not perversion, but inversion. I think that what we're seeing is that our world has changed so much. As you can see on this slide, just 10 years ago, the world view was very sort of Anglo-centric, especially in technology, as you can see on this rather funny map, is that we were thinking all of the innovation comes from America and all the good things come from America, which of course they did to some degree. But now the world is changing, it's turning upside down. A lot of good stuff and a lot of innovation is happening in the East, in China, and of course in India, even in Russia and in South Africa. We have lots of initiatives that rival what's happening in Silicon Valley. So my view in general is that the developing countries are taking the lead. Developing countries for me means Russia, India, Brazil, China, Indonesia. And the BRIC countries, as people call them. As you can see on this map, most of the world is a developing country. In fact, there's about 3 billion people who are not connected currently to the Internet to large degree at all, just using mobile phones. And they will all be connected in the next three years. So this is going to be absolutely humongous numbers. Right now we have 4.5 billion people connected on mobile phones and 2.1 billion on the Internet. So imagine the other 3 billion, there's actually a company called O3B that exists that makes this happen together with Google. The other 3 billion going online actually connecting with the mobile phone and they will be in Brazil, in Africa, in India. And they will do all the stuff that we want to do, which is to consume content, watch TV shows, communicate, sell stuff, probably not on eBay, but on different platforms like this. So the developing countries will take the lead because they have a real hunger for change. They have a real hunger for getting to be more prosper in Europe and America. We're largely saturated. So we're going to have a hard time competing with other Asian developing countries. As you can see on this slide, the fact is that actually Asia and Africa are the countries or the continents where people use the mobile Internet the most. So even though they have bad connectivity, they're very involved users. For example, I spent some time in the Middle East lately and you can see every single young person is on Facebook. Everybody is communicating. Of course, we've seen the political consequences of this with all of the changes happening in there. So people are really into this in Iran, for example, which is not known for a lot of liberal activities, of course. Half the population is under the age of 25 and they use social networks, they use mobile phones. We're going to see a lot of activity in that regard and moving the sort of emphasis to those countries. In general, we would see, of course, because of this, because of the shift that we're seeing, there's a huge power shift to the consumers, the so-called consumers, which are no longer actually consumers. They're now sort of producers. They're people who are engaged. They're people who have comments. And all these things are basically going in one direction where we're saying this is sort of the people formerly known as consumers to quote Prince to some degree. But we have dramatically increased power out of those consumers. So this is a huge shift. The world is inverting back from the power of the corporation, the governments and big companies to the power of the consumer. And this has nothing to do with socialism or any of those things. It's actually a very capitalist development in some ways maybe too Darwinistic even, because imagine five billion people voting, whether they like your restaurant or your shop or any of those things. So that's changing a lot. So if you look at this graph, what's happening is that Google has now sort of topped out as the number one place on the web for search. Now Facebook has taken over. People are using Facebook to find stuff, to even buy cars, to look at classifieds, to sell stuff. Delta Airlines is on Facebook and Warner Brothers movies is on Facebook and 47% of American corporations are active on Facebook already. So now it's about social mobile. It's about now. It's about here, location. It's about tribes. It's no longer about finding cool stuff on Google. Well, it's still about Google, of course, to a large degree, but we're going to have Google and Facebook side-by-side in the future. When Facebook goes public next year, you can expect them to rival Google in terms of market value very, very soon. We also have this upside-down inversion in advertising. Advertising and marketing used to be essentially let's face it lying, which means telling us stuff that really wasn't true, or telling us stuff that we don't care about so that we buy something. So the old paradigm of advertising was essentially that it would get disrupted for 10, 20, 50 times. Eventually we would get to know your car and then possibly buy it, right? I mean, the whole mode of advertising was about interruption of meaningless stuff that we don't need. Now advertising has to become an asset. It has to become valuable. It has to become meaningful. And that's completely upside-down. We're talking about a $1 trillion business, roughly $550 billion in advertising, the rest of marketing services being inverted. So there's lots and lots of chains there. As Henry Jenkins of MIT says, most importantly, it's not about the cool tech stuff. It's not about the iPhones. It's not about the Internet. It's about changing cultural practices. So people are now actually changing their behavior because they have these tools. And that's changing culture. It's changing business. It's changing the way that we communicate. So imagine if you could actually realize those changes and recognize them, understand them earlier. And this, of course, is some of the work that I do with the future's agency is to try to get into that. But it's about habit change, not about technologies. Very important to keep that in mind. It's not about the gadgets. It's about the consequences. Take a look at this slide, the music industry. Clearly, the music industry has declined 71% in the last decade. That's how utterly foolish they have responded to the change of user behavior by putting about 27,000 people suing them, not putting them in jail, but close to threatening to put them into jail. You see the result of this is basically demise is death. Because now it's the user that makes the rules. And we have to get used to that. I mean, that is the only way forward for lots of businesses, for banks, for insurances, for travel companies, for media companies. It's the users that make the rules if you don't please the user your toast. We can see with YouTube what YouTube has done in about 24 months to MTV, Viacom, VH1. They're still there. They're still on cable. But are the kids still watching by and large? They're not. YouTube has taken over as a primary channel of finding music, of discovering cool stuff, of sharing with your friends. We used to go places and say, have you seen this clip of XYZ on MTV now we're sending each other YouTube links? So complete disruption of this because YouTube's mantra is broadcast yourself which would have been unthinkable 10 years ago because it wasn't possible to broadcast myself. It was too expensive and you have to have cable TV or be on cable TV. So this change is very large. It's complete inversion of the structure. So no longer do we have huge international broadcaster companies only. We still will have them of course but we also have our own options and there's Hulu, there's Netflix, there's Amazon, Direct Distribution, there's BBC iPlayer, there's many other video sets like YouTube around the world. Of course Chinese versions like Q-Zone and many others do the same thing to a broad public audience. Now we have sort of the generation of next cable television which is Facebook. Facebook is a broadcaster. It's not on cable which means we don't have to pay for cable. Facebook is becoming a TV station, a broadcaster on a global proportion that we've never seen before. So now we already have Batman the Dark Knight from Warner Brothers and a bunch of other stuff on Facebook. You can watch the movie on Facebook. It's not free yet but it will be free because there'll be lots of ways to advertise around the movie and subsidize free content. So we're going to see the next cable TV emerging with social networks on a global level. We're going to see those companies become very, very valuable properties inverting the entire idea of investing in infrastructure like cable or satellite to do this I think in five years that's sort of a demising path there. Cable is still very well off and it's going to continue to be well off for a while because we're so used to it in developing countries but in developing countries we're going to see lots and lots of people moving to over the top content completely inverting the food chain of how that works. So basically this is a world that's sort of in many ways turned upside down and those are new rules that we have to get used to and we can't actually flip it back like it has been tried in the music business and we're sort of facing the fact that we're not really in control of this change anymore. This is a very big factor and I hope you enjoyed this brief show check out mediafuturist.com and G Leonhardt on Twitter. Thanks very much for tuning in and I'll see you down the road.