 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We've got a fun weekend in sports coming up Not just conference tournaments and men's college basketball, which we discussed on Wednesday Not just UFC which we talked through with Austin Swain yesterday, but also get EPL. We've got NASCAR in Phoenix It is going to be a fun weekend We're gonna get you said for that weekend by talking to Austin Casper today We'll get his read on the EPL slate also talks in futures And then I'll go through what my numbers are saying about the NASCAR cup series and Excidity series in Phoenix over at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Austin Cas check him out on Twitter at Austin Cas He is a writer for us over at number fire calm Austin It is almost the weekend almost a fun slate in the EPL. How are you doing today? Doing really well. Yeah, it's just feels like a really fun time of the year with all the sports that are going on So and it is fun and you also do college basketball stuff for us at number fire And we're gonna have you on next Wednesday and break down the Thursday games in the NCAA tournament That's it's a really fun time of year I think that honestly having all this to watch is is nice for me as someone who Has a lot of downtime between Football and baseball start it's nice to have fun events like this to kind of keep the juices flowing throughout March Yeah, I feel the exact same and it's a tough balance of trying to get work done Yeah, I'll do basketball at the same time. I mean, I'm basically off next Thursday I think you're off the some sometimes next week too So it's it's nice to have you know sneak out a little bit and watch some sports when we can for sure We're gonna break down the EPL slate for today and get Austin thoughts on that Then we'll circuit back later on and talk about some NASCAR But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the covering of the spread of podcast feed wherever you get your Podcasts we have our USC preview thoughts and swing up Well, there is a time stamp for that into the episode description from yesterday's show If you want to check out some USC thoughts for tomorrow as well then coming up on Monday We have our live stream of the NCAA tournament bracket breakdown We'll have Dr. Ed Feng and Bennett Corcoran here to break down their thoughts in the bracket They'll talk strategy for tournaments For the bracket and get you ready to win your pools as well That'll be live on the Fandall YouTube page 6 p.m. Eastern and then also up on the covering the spread podcast feed after that So go search for that wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Now Austin when we've had you on before we talked a lot about the top of the table We talked about our snow we talked about Man City, but over Fandall sports book You can also bet on which teams will finish inside the top four for this year right now Manchester United Is down at minus 950 so pretty locked in there live your pool minus 135 Tottenham is plus 230 new castles plus 270 When you look at this market Austin any value stand out for you to finish top four as of right now Yeah, I really like Liverpool as you just laid out. This is Price is pretty much a three-team race between Liverpool Tottenham and Newcastle for the fourth and final Champions League spot I think Liverpool should probably be a slightly bigger favorite than what they are at this minus 135 price as we talked about last week Liverpool have been getting healthier and Going by expected goals. They've been playing much better lately particularly in attack scoring at least 1.8 expected goals in five of their last six matches and that all came to fruition as they be United 7-0 last weekend So heading into this weekend Liverpool are fifth in the table just three points behind Tottenham With the game in hand and Newcastle are one point behind Liverpool with the game in hand on Liverpool So there's a lot of moving parts here But despite everything that's gone wrong for Liverpool this season and how poor they've looked Especially in defense at times and how many injuries they've had. They're still in a pretty nice spot to get into the top four And just based on talent They're the most talented team of those the three teams battling for this four spot And I really like that they're already out of the FA Cup and they're probably going to be out of the Champions League this time next week So getting into the top four is going to be their sole focus the rest of the way So I like them at this minus 135 price Yeah, you'd mentioned them last week their money line and I was out at brunch and the game was on The matches on TV in the place where after brunch and I saw was 3-0. I was like, okay, cool I don't have to worry about that I can just like let that coast. I didn't realize until after I got home It was 7-0 by the end. So a stomping there. What do the expected goals look like when you defeat a team 7-0? I'm assuming it's obviously not quite that optimistic But like that had to be just a slaughtering in terms of even the advanced metrics there Yeah, you know soccer is a crazy sport It wasn't as bad as you would think It was definitely lopsided toward Liverpool. I want to say it was like basically two or three to like under one Yeah, but that's kind of happened sometimes and then you know Liverpool had it happen the other way to them They lost 5-2 to Real Madrid in a game. They won expected goals. Yeah Yeah, it's just weird things can happen a goalie mistake or a guide scores a great goal from You know distance that can really throw off things. Yeah, so Liverpool feeling themselves right now getting both the Advanced metrics and the results in their favor. So minus 135 to finish top four Austin is seeing value in that right now Let's talk now about the Saturday slate. It is a six-game slate in the EPL for this week Austin Looking there anything stand out to you in the more traditional markets Yeah, I'm looking at the Brentford Everton matchup Specifically the Tyno bet market and I'm really into Brentford out there minus 110 price The games basically priced as like a pretty even matchup, which is a hedge-scratcher for me I always get a little bit nervous when I think that the lines are off because I I don't know as much as they do Right, but all signs are pointing to Brentford for me and this mark the line is moving toward Brentford Which makes me feel a lot better Everton have been better since hiring Sean Dyche, but they still bring pretty bad. They've won only once Since their big upset over Arsenal and Dyches first game and then that five match run they've played three sides that are in the top 11 and Brentford are in ninth and in those three matches. They've conceded 2.7 2.2 and 1.9 XG Per FB refs expected goals model the 1.9 came in a home match against Aston Villa Which is a side that's pretty comparable to Brentford, but Brentford's actually a little bit better So even though this match is at Everton and Everton have a ton to play for with Their spot in the table and how they're fighting for their lives I think Brentford are going to be able to create a lot of chances and Brentford have not lost a Premier League match since October 23rd That's a run of 12 fixtures and I haven't lost to a team in the bottom half of the table all season long So everything's pointing to Brentford at that minus one ten time of that price for me And I don't even mind them at the 160 or I guess plus 170 money line price either Yeah, 170 is the money line if you include a tie. It's minus 110 if you make the tie No bet, which is what Austin is recommending here. Why do you think the market is skeptical of them? given the stuff you laid out because I was when I when I Have a spot where I am off from the market. I try to reverse engineer. Okay Why am I off or why is the market different from where I'm at? So when you try to Concoct the reasoning for this what reasoning comes to your mind So I do the same thing and I yeah, I it's really fun process to try to figure it out I think and I would say for for me the motivation that Everton has Being an 18th really in a dangerous spot where they are going to find themselves Fighting to say in the Premier League the matches at home Everton was in a similar position last year and Really ended up leaning heavily on their home field advantage to get out of it So I think that's probably why the market is where it is but the Aston Villa match earlier that I mentioned where Aston Villa had 1.9 XG and That game was actually at Everton as well. So the home field advantage hasn't paid Off that well so far for Everton. And yeah, like I said just everything is Coming up Brentford for me when I look at this game Okay So even if we know why the market may be there we can still disagree with that reasoning and think that That you know sometimes the market can just be off So minus 110 for Brentford against Everton in the tie I know Betmark and Austin study a bit of interest in the the money line at plus 170 if you include the tie as well What about player props across Saturday Austin anything stand out to you there? Well, the the player proper really like for this weekend. It's actually a Sunday game. It's okay wolves and Newcastle Okay St. James Park. I want to bet on Newcastle starting striker Which is probably going to be either Alexander Isaac or Calum Wilson to score or assist both guys are priced at minus 110 and Gonna have I'm gonna wait till 1130 Eastern time on Sunday morning to Make this bet once I see the starting lineup because it's likely only one of those two starts, but Newcastle got off to an amazing start this year at one point looked like they were almost locks to finish in the top four But they've really slowed In league play, but there's there's a lot of bad luck at play here over their last eight Premier League matches. They've scored only three goals despite amassing 11.3 Expected goals So in short their Newcastle are due and wolves are beatable wolves have given up the seventh most Expected goals this season and have allowed at least one goal and ten consecutive away matches Newcastle are gonna be able to create some chances and either Isaac or Wilson Whichever one of them starts is gonna be a focal point and have a really good chance to be involved with either a goal or an assist So both those again as you mentioned minus 110 the two guys you outlined Calum Wilson Alexander Isaac They're both minus 110 right now. That's for the Newcastle versus the wolves matchup. That is on Sunday So awesome liking both those there depending on who starts for people who may not know aka me When do lineups get announced? Is it 60 minutes before? Before the match begins. Yep, it's 60 minutes before and this this matches a 1230 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, so at 11 30 they'll be out Okay, and do markets shift a lot based on starters or because this one, you know, it's again It's minus 110 for both these guys seem like that's probably set in stone Effectively and it won't shift a ton right when the lineups are announced. You're right. Yep They usually bake in okay The probability of maybe somebody starting at striker, which is okay typically the position that scores the most goals if Something odd happened and neither Wilson nor Isaac started and say Anthony Gordon started the striker His member might drop just a little bit But yeah, they normally account for that and just play it safe on their end Okay, well, hopefully that's a phone primer for the EPL Saturday slate That is Austin cast again find his EP out work over at number fire calm next week You'll find him here on the show on Wednesday talking about some NCAA tournament men's basketball games Austin have a fantastic weekend Enjoy the EPL enjoy the conference championship games. It will talk to you once again next week for a again another fun episode Sounds good. Thank you very much Check out Austin on Twitter at Austin cast and again find his work over at number fire calm We're a toxin NASCAR at Phoenix both the Cups series and the XINITY series in just one second But first the NBA season is hurtling towards the playoffs And now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use Then you can bet on everything from the money line to points scores and threes drained plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same-game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 and bonus bets make every moment more a Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus the president select states first online a real money wager only ten dollar deposit required Refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restricted apply see full terms at fandall.com sportsbook gambling problem call 1-800 gambler What was the fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 over the cc pg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming, Kansas 1-800 5 2 2 4700 we're in Kansas KS gambling help calm in Louisiana 1-877 770 stop in a Maryland MD gambling help org in New York 1-877 a open wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler Net let's talk some NASCAR now We got the cup series and the extended series out in Phoenix for this weekend And it's a very new setup for the cup series for this week because they are changing up their entire short track and road course package to Try to make the racing better than it was on those tracks last year and that does apply to Phoenix as well The expected change here is about a 30% reduction in downforce and that's a big change And it means that last year's data is tainted from what we saw there so I still have a model for this race because I do think that We can account for these changes increase projected incident rates increase the variance as well, but I'm not going to not build a model So proceed with some caution, but I do think that we can still find some good bets here And there are three top 10 bets I like prior to practice which is scheduled for tonight at 635 p.m Eastern those ones are Eric Elmerola Brad keselowski and Austin synderic Elmerola the big one for me he's down to plus 250 to finish inside the top 10 that is a Pretty significant move from where he opened. He was plus 340. I believe it opened. He's down to plus 250 so he missed out a lot here in terms of Getting the best number But I still think there's value here the implied market plus 250 is 28.6 percent I have Elmerola at 43.6 percent. So it's still about 15 percentage points of value there That's a pretty big gap Which as discussed with Austin does make you a bit nervous, but I think it's for a good reason Elmerola is 10 races in Phoenix with steward house racing Spans four different rules packages or cars and In those 10 races. He's finished top five and a half So 50 top turn rate with this team at this track If you expand that sample and look at all short flat tracks from 2020 on so Ever since they shifted to that lower downforce package in 2020 20 race sample In that time Elmerola has a top 10 and 10 out of 20 races. So again, 50 percent there as well Now in that sample specifically Just one of those top 10s came in phoenix, but he also had finishes of 11th 12th and 13th in those races So It's not like he was bad at phoenix specifically. He just wasn't as good as he was at new hampshire Richmond and martinsville For elmerola again the implied mark's here 28.6 percent He has shortened a lot. So the value is not as plum as it was before But I do still think it is too low in elmerola. Again, I've got him at 43.6 percent So pretty well above market plus 250 not the best number you could have gotten but still a value for me He is the primary guy i'm focusing on for this week in the nascar cup series Other two as mentioned are brad keselowski and allston syndrick keselowski three to one syndrick plus 340 I have kez at 29 percent to finish top 10 syndrick 28.5 percent implied for keselowski is Is 25 percent and syndrick is 22.7 percent keselowski If you look back to last year seven races on short flat tracks And he crossed the finish line inside of top 10 in two of those seven races. So 28.5 percent rate He did get disqualified once so it didn't count, but he had the speed I think that what was especially encouraging for me was that the speed in rfk racing for keselowski and chris busher Got better as a year went along keselowski and busher in the first richman race ran pretty well Second richman race busher almost won it keselowski finished top 10 in phoenix or in new hampshire. He also Did finish really well in martinsville, but again was disqualified there Phoenix historically not like the best track for keselowski relative to equipment So this one's more so about the gains that rfk racing made Buying to keselowski as a driver. I think that three to one a good number for him syndrick no top 10 finishes last year on this track type But he finished between 11th and 13th four separate times in seven races So he was right there knocking on the doorstep just couldn't quite cross that threshold He also syndrick won twice at phoenix in the extended series He was a runner-up and another got passed by daniel hemrick on the last lap there So this should be a good bounce back spot for ford with aro mattering less than it did at the other tracks So i'm fine buying into all these guys. The the best one for me right now again is almerola even down to plus 250 I like keselowski three to one syndrick and plus 340 to finish inside the top 10 I think all those pretty good values for me the one guy i'd watch in turn in practice on Uh friday night is ryan blaney. He's eight to one to win right now I do show value there based on my current model, but again, I'm not really sure The accuracy of it given the changes So holding off there and i'm okay waiting until practice If blaney comes out and is fast in practice on friday, even if he reopens at like Honestly seven to one i'm probably still going to be showing value Based on where i'm at right now. So i'm okay Slow playing this taking a wait and see approach and seeing how blaney runs in practice on friday night If he does what he did last year at phoenix where he Had i think the best car in the first race. He had the best car in the second race too, but kind of Gave his teammate joey legano, uh some slack cut him some slack let legano win on the championship race Legano won the championship blaney. He's due for a win here given how well he's run So blaney to me is the main guy i'm focusing on practice Martin tricks to any other guy who I show A decent amount of value on to win right now But I do want to see practice for the win bets for top 10s. I don't care as much but For the win bets i'll hold off. So blaney and truex is the main guys i'm focusing on there But for the top 10 bets i like almarola plus 250 keselowski 300 and syndrick plus 340 Each to finish inside the top 10 On the xfinity series side. We are once again dealing with kyle bush bush running the xfinity series He has been dominant there in the past and was very fast last weekend in vegas, but didn't win Oh, we got the austin hill winner here on the show 20 to 1 in that one last week. So I do still think we can bet against kyle bush and feel pretty good about it The problem is the guy I was going to bet on was brandon jones and as I look at the xfinity series odds right now He has turned to plus 950 He was uh 15 to 1 as of this morning. So a pretty big move on brandon jones there So the value on jones that we had seen previously is now gone I will say though you can likely still get brandon jones at uh 15 to 1 elsewhere I'm gonna check one of the book here quickly to see where jones is that there because If you can still get 15 to 1 on jones, I think that is a very good number He's 12 to 1 elsewhere, you know, that's not bad. The reason I'm on jones is because He's been pretty good on this track type. Um He uh is a 10 to win for me and when he was at joe gibbs racing He was pretty good on this track type He won martinsville the first race last year finished runner-up in phoenix the first race Could have won the second martinsville race, but we got wrecked by his teammate ty gibbs Now jones is with junior motorsports. So different team. It's still A top fly team. Um, I think that junior motorsports and gibbs the top two teams in the xenuity series jones again really good on this track type He has shortened from 15 to 1 I would shop around if you can still find 15 to 1 to win for for brandon jones I would take that uh because I think there's good value there If you can only get 12 to 1 that's fine not as good, obviously It is a pretty significant move. Uh, I can see jones to podium at 4 to 1 elsewhere And then jones plus 170 to finish inside the top five So the implied odds of plus 170 are 37 percent. I've got jones at 42.8 percent to finish top five. So a bit above that So if you want to avoid cowl bush, I don't mind taking jones, uh Plus 170 to finish inside the top five. I think that's a a good value based on what he did based on this team, etc etc So shop around, um, brandon jones the primary guy who I think could be a good bet for this week So shop right on jones. See what you can find there based on the current odds of fans I think the one guy I could have interested in is sammy smith. He's 17 to 1 to win right now I think that's a very Enticing number smith is driving for joe gibbs racing. So uh, the team that jones was at last year teammate of jones hunter neiman check neiman check right now Is five to one ryan trexon gibbs as well. He's 15 to one I'm not sure why trex is shorter than sammy smith. Uh, I actually do have I guess Um, trex a bit above smith myself as well, but I've got smith at 5.8 percent to win So Recently optimistic there. There wasn't a value in his top five market. Uh, previously the implied odds 17 to 1 for smith Are 5.6 percent. So just a bit below where I have him, but um, I still think that's an okay value So if you can't find brandon jones 15 to 1 Maybe as short as 12 to 1 kind of a maybe there. I would check out sammy smith, but um, I do think that The smith top five market the jones top five market both those enticing again jones Plus 170 if you can get them there to finish top five would be a value for me So hopefully you can still find some good numbers out there annoying when things shorten as you're recording mid recording But um, I do still think that the jones top five number of plus 170 is a good bet if you can find it That is all that we have here for today On covering the spread want to give a big thank you once again Two austin cast are swinging by and talking about his thoughts in the epl slay and breaking that down again A reminder coming up on monday Our show for the day will be up late because we're going to do that live stream 6 p.m. Eastern on the fandal youtube page We'll put that up here on the covering the spread podcast feed after that as well So if you want to watch live Check out the fandal youtube page swing by there 6 p.m. Eastern myself not giving advice Just asking questions with dr. Ed fang benet corcoran or shock quality They'll give their insights and their thoughts and attorney to help you win your bracket and more ncda tournament podcasts coming up throughout the week as well So subscribe to covering the spread or check out the fandal youtube page to get all those as they go live If you have any questions, whether it be scheduling or something else For me on twitter. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across this very fun sports weekend We'll talk to you once again monday to break down the ncda men's tournament This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network