 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Hazel Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Yeah on this Tuesday the 20th of June gosh the month seems to have flown by we're looking at the Dow down ups a wrong one let's go to the Dow right yeah there we are looking at the Dow down 233 now this is going to be really important why look when you get a leg D we're waiting waiting waiting for the Chapman waves to make a leg D when you get that D and then you immediately turn down sharply first of all the candle that I didn't type in and I'll type in now because I didn't forgot to do that Chapman wave roll candle so there's a particular candle that I make it make it quite an important note of whenever it occurs if it's at the top usually you will get it where there's a tiny wick at the top and then a sharp move down and then a long wick because halfway to three-quarters of the way the bounce up creates the candle that looks like a Roman cat when it's inverted red Roman candle at the top it has almost the same implication but the methodology is a little different in that let me just change the size you make that a nine there are in that when it is upside down there was a long wick and then the red big red body halfway going to the top with a tiny little wick at the top I can say if there is a round if there is a slide that goes halfway into the wick for instance this was a good one right here and that's a small but it's a Chapman wave Roman candle nevertheless if there's a move in a shorter time frame that goes halfway into the wick and holds for a certain period of time be careful because it's there's a great chance that it could just not only drop but actually touch the low that was made but if it closes above that two out of three sessions above the wick high that's really positive that's exactly what you saw here on the low of 25th of May at 32,586 in the Dow the inverse would be and I didn't make a big deal about it because my feeling was that we were going to see some negative action not only that the Chapman wave very low Tring gauge on Friday suggested that there should be the very next trading day there should be a very weak Dow before it should go negative before it tries to rally and go positive but it should go negative well we got that in the futures yesterday the Dow futures were down but we got the same thing today now this is the issue you see this nine-period moving average above the 14 way up and it is at this time it's a 34,022 and the black 14-period moving average is a 33,085 to get that green to slump and go down sharply and cross negative you would have to see the Dow to 33,700 probably 32,600 level it's time or it's price or it's both and as far as I'm concerned one of the reasons why I said no we won't go short just yet we are still long three times long the Dow ups I shouldn't say that because I think we just got taken out let me just double check no I don't think we did I needed to check I want to talk apples to apples I said yeah no we're still long and the one of the reasons is to get that nine-period I see this all the time this is one of the reasons why every every minute of the day that I'm around I'll be I'll be looking or trading or looking at the the way the nine-period moving average and this is what I worked on last week while I was out of town how what are the opportunities to get a two-click session that's number one that in other words based mostly on the 10-minute chart if you can get the low of the of the morning can you get a two-click session that goes all the way to early afternoon maybe two o'clock but sometimes as on Friday it goes all the way to the close or it has on other days so what I'm looking at here is that that that was one study but the other is the nine-period moving average look it's green look what had to happen in this particular instance for this one this 10-minute chart to go negative not only did you have to drop sharply you really had to plummet yet it's and not really not only that it took all the way for 1 2 3 took 30 40 minutes it took 40 minutes for it to turn negative so that's what I'm looking at here that there's a process that's involved the greater the distance between the two moving averages the longer the time and the greater the price takes to reverse that so here we are we haven't even touched the green nine-period moving average I suspect that there are still buyers out there and you're going to see a flurry of activity you remember late David White used to talk about used to talk about the crossover in terms of the nine-period moving average but he used it in a very different way where we come down sharply then you bounce and then if you come back under it that's usually very negative I have a slightly different way of looking at that but I have the pattern that I call the dreaded age I'm suspecting we're going to get some form of a U shaped pattern and then we'll full gap at some point this week maybe but we'll get above the close the lower Friday was just 34,285 we got a distance to be 300 points below that and we'll get somewhere into this candle and then we'll see what happens remember my rule count the inverse chapter we've Roman care read Roman candle there's an inverse one is that I want to see two closes out of three sessions doesn't matter what it is is the daily bars underneath that low and that'll say to me okay now you're going to start to see weakness occur in the nine-period moving average you haven't yet look even the MACD look at that distance between the high the nine-period differential green and the red 26 period expenditure moving average but the stochastic has gone down from the 90s to 87% still very positive but it is turning down on balance volume blue turned down sharpening relative strength is still pretty good around about 52% so that's the dating wiki chart says we fulfilled everything we wanted there's a left side right side price time match from the 34,712 high peak B way back in that was November I believe and just double check that was December the say week of the 16th to the midpoint the long-legged doji candle of the 17th of week of the 17th of March at 31,429 and now we've run up and it went to the day but it missed the price it went perfectly in time but it hasn't gone perfectly in price so the higher of 34,588 on Friday missed the 34,712 level I don't think it's going to get in this move right now this is the choppy period that we're looking at and yeah you know I probably should have started one short position in the position that we wanted and said let's add it at a certain point because it's going to be a process and I suspect that the process is going to be one there whereby there's just one sudden spike to the upside that fails and that's the one that you really have to time perfectly all right so I spent a little time on the Dow why because that to me is so important it is a leg deep on to a potential 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free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Hi folks so just let me talk about this very quickly we're talking about the 200-period moving average in the 10-minute chart of the E-mini this is the September E-mini look at this it touched it way back there that PB minus it failed at about just before four o'clock on I think it was Friday was that Friday on the 19th what is that the 19th yep the 19th and look what happened it kept trying to get even though it made peak days it couldn't get there couldn't get there couldn't get there went to an A and then a B minus right there at 4 10 this morning a.m. and then it had a really nice move from this love I think it was 32 yeah 44 32.00 round number low it goes peak A peak B peak C crosses positive D pulls back holds the 9-period moving average the 9-period moving average never went negative in the 10-minute chart then it goes to an E and fails under the neath and I'd say typed into the then 44 44 to 44 46 that's going to be very strong resistance and what we did was we ran all the way in this instance to 44 45 point right zero zero round number and now it's pulling back sharply so that's the 10-minute point I just wanted to show you that that 200-period moving average and one of the things I'd like to look at is see if this is early morning five o'clock six o'clock you make some kind of a low and then it really sharply and that takes you to about the 8 39 o'clock time frame where the news is you know got this economic news and all that then there's the time from 10 from from that moment until 10 20 so you've got your your early very early morning action mostly overseas but early morning then you've got kind of a consolidation going to 10 20 and a 10 20 exactly now as we are 10 20 on the 20th of June this is where you're going to start to see the real action come in and that should take you to about between 12 30 and maybe 115 and then you get the afternoon session and that's going to be very important and I see it at this particular moment the action from Thursday into Friday and then Sunday night into Monday in the futures and then the action going into this afternoon is going to be really important the deeper we go down the less chance you get in this particular phase this particular week of going very much higher now let me show you something that I in the video I did for my subscribers every weekend I do a video about 45 minutes to an hour hour and five minutes just going over a whole bunch of things the overview in the market the different sectors what they might be looking at what I'm looking at what I'd like to get what I've missed what I'd like to get in a pullback etc and what we're looking at here is that yes the Dow is making a pd I said that there's a real good chance that we make that pd there was a real good chance that the s and p which has an alternate alternate count g says see could in fact hold quite nicely have one spike that gets us close that makes like a c1 c2 or maybe even a d but we are getting really close in this particular phase to some kind of consolidation but look at this caterpillar which has an alternate count went to a peak e but you've got pave which is has all of those ingredients this is the global x us infrastructure development etf there's no other way I can count this I've got this as a c and that's the reason it's one of the few reasons why I was looking at many reasons but a couple of reasons that came in that said you know it's going to be rotational probably we're going to be pulling back and what's really important is how does the area in the pave which is the infrastructure how does the slx which is the this is the vent egg vector steel etf I'm calling this a peak b how does it consolidate there's still residual strength how does it unfold how does there was one of the stuff I want to look at right now oh apple apple has an alternate count g slash b but look at technically stronger days right now it started to show signs of a little bit of wear and tear but as we as we're looking at it right now up seven cents and 184 185 it's just holding fabulously so that's the reason why I'm thinking that there's a there's a process that's going on but now that the dow is down 350 that is a bigger number and one of the reasons is you've got bowing which is heavily weighted in the dow which went to a peak d e double top wow I love these double tops it's just amazing I thought I looked at it over the weekend I guess I didn't look at this the high of a week ago was on the 12th of June 223.9 91 the high on Friday was 223.87 four cents difference I mean I just didn't I don't know how to explain this because if you go back to February the week of the 17th of February of this year 271.31 was the high 271 wait I think I wrote that wrong I mean 221 I wasn't saying no that's impossible 221 30 31 I mean really how does that happen look how close look at this 221.31 and here we are double topping at 223.91 and 223.87 I mean that's just amazing right and here you are talking about months going from February to June so it's fascinating that it happens but it did make a leg see in the monthly chart down really sharpie and that's part of the doubt at this particular point is starting to see the the the diversion of instruments in the components between the cyclicals which Boeing is a cyclical and something like let's go to something like what kind of Amgen Amgen and Amgen is trading down just a little bit 80 cents at 228.86 but it's in the Dow so you've got this diversion between buy a farmer give me a break why you've got a cyclical so the Dow industrials forget that so now what we're looking at is this is a rotational correction because even when I'm looking at deer deer is only down three at 404.74 this is a peak A peak B and a peak C there's no new high today there's no other way and it should go with with a buy mode in place it should there's just absolutely no reason why I shouldn't go there one extra leg to give you that leg D and then we can pull back and that's what I'm saying I think this is a process and it might be a rotational process that in fact the overall Dow because it's already made a D can start your fair and some of these others they linger and linger and they just manage to scrape to a new recovery height to get that leg D like pave it's it all right enough with that now what I want you to show you is this just to do it real quickly because I can't remember if I did it during the opening segment of the of the update to 10 o'clock so the S&P is now down 40 at 43.70 and if you're looking at the mag D it's flattening a little bit but it's still very strong stochastic still good at 90% on balance volume has pulled back together with the price if you're looking at the QQQ NDX100 trading down 330 at 364.62 with that nine over the 14 the mag is still pretty good and it could be much bigger than the others and look at this guest tonight so this is Rose as the connector phase and that's Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors TFNN has just launched their new 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page of TFNN.com All right in the Tiger YouTube page mentions that the six ounce cans have become seven ounce cans I've been noticing that I actually been talking about this for for years and years and years that we've been slowly watching the the half ounce become you know it gets shrunk down a little bit pound one pound becomes a little less than a pound and the price goes up actually so it's a double whammy but we'll have to get used to that and meantime back at the ranch down the S&P is down 42 a couple of things I just wanted to mention here in passing was that someone had mentioned Amazon Amazon you see this cluster formation with almost like an H pattern has made a G stash seed could almost be a little double top here in this particular instance the Magdi has turned down the stochastic still good at 81% but it's starting to weaken and the on balance volume is weakened but look at the relative strength for the last week as the price has been up near these recovery highs this gray line right here the relative strength has been weakening so in this particular instance I would say that yeah if I think someone said they would they started a buy or nibbling on Amazon is that what I saw I just say be a little careful in this particular phase right now because I think that the heavies are the ones that are going to come have a little bit of a pullback at this point I don't see anything more than a reasonable you know 3% 5% even pullback if you're looking at I showed apple let's see where apple is now apple is now down 17 cents you see just sort of reversal it's got the pressure of the markets that even the winners are starting to focus now on the general market as some money's been taken off I'm my big concern is that the XLF I was worried about it over the weekend and I said at the 200 period moving average that makes me look in leg F I'm not even it says that it could be a chapter with instant restart but I said I'm more inclined to keep this as an F right now the MACDs goods the castics good 87% even with this pullback on balance on was very weak rental strength to start to weaken but still pretty good and the 90s still way over the 14 but I'm concerned that it didn't show the kind of leadership that I wanted which said that the financials S&P select financial spider fund should have gone a lot higher should have gone and held in the 34s instead of not getting to 34 and now pulling back to 33.02 that includes KRE trading at 41.94 I just wanted to check something here you see I tighten the stop so that we still make a profit we are no more long and one of the reasons is because of this cluster formation this should become an a cup so that the next move would be above the higher Friday and the way it was acting I threw myself if it takes out the low of Thursday and that low on KRE which is the S&P regional banking ETF is at 42.47 we could go quite a bit lower if this market is ready for some kind of a digestive phase so I tighten the stop so we made a little bit of money but we're out and I'll have to wait again and I'll have to wait for the XLF and I'll have to wait because Bank of America was what we normally get into every year for the last seven years or so but for the last six or eight months or more maybe we haven't gone into that I just do not like the way it's acting and that's part of this whole thing that I was trying to impart to my subscribers over the weekend in my overview video is that this is a market that favors some sectors and we took a stock the other day that was out of the ordinary it was it was a non-GMO of food company I thought let's see if this can go under the under the radar have a decent rally and at least whole steady and show me that we got a rotational market in that other sectors are starting to work rather than just the artificial intelligence and the tax sector it didn't work out so that's said to me hey the financials haven't been acting very well just be a little careful here so we can come back but I'm out I just don't like this now I'm going to mention bots which is something we're talking about and I say it's getting very overboard we're lucky to get on almost at the exact top of we've got we're taking a little bit off we've got we've got a position we're taking a little bit off I wanted a bigger position so now we have to wait we've taken really good gains I I'm just look at leg E in the weekly chart a beautiful I don't want to spend time on this now cut formation a breaks out doubles to the upside I like everything about it but it's overboard there's no question global ex robotics and AI ETF we'll get we'll add back we've already we have how holding the core position but we will get back the parts that we took off plus the second position at some point I like the sector but I think right now there's telling us that it is extremely overbought all right so with that said we've taken profits in a lot of things we've raised our cash position I'm even looking at this do you remember I spoke about the DBA which is in leg C yes another reason why I said we couldn't see some kind of a rotation here and then sudden spikes to the upside maybe not taking out the highs but you've got this DBA agricultural fund looking like it wants to get to a leg D the high on Friday was 22.07 was it no 22 round oh did you realize 22 round number high today's high is 21.99 so so far this is going to look like it could make a peak C but when we expect a peak D and that's all those grades the grades did fantastically yes wheat does wheat a leg C pulls back today but it's still close to the high of Friday that's the same as the DBA look at soybeans continuous contract extended higher leg B look at a corn extended higher leg D so all of these are suggesting and this is the this is the part that I think the Fed has to really be concerned about all of this is suggesting that that whole rotation between crude oil pulling back and look at this yes crude oil down to dollar 71 and 70.21 it's not been going anywhere I've spoken everybody kept saying crude oil going up to the 90s as someone said I heard someone say right back to the highs of earlier earlier this last year you know I said they couldn't be right I just don't see it in the chart maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see it and you can see it's stuck in a trading range at some point if crude oil is trading at 78 I have a completely different opinion I'm sure but at this particular point you've got deflation in this whole sector that's so important which is the crude oil you've got deflation if you're looking at high grade copper high grade copper pulling back a tad at 3.86 on the continuous contract but look at the weekly and monthly chart lower lows and lower highs look at wood the ice shares global timber and forestry ETF made an alternate count E slash B the other day under the 200 period moving average but look at the weekly it's just in a sideways range this is timber and forestry worldwide ETF so that says to me aha but nobody was looking to see grains suddenly move up so sharply so that's the dba and that says so here we have some deflationary aspects in the commodities that's oil that's gold let me just go back to gold uh can I do that yes gold look at that now down 27 wheat these are important soybean I mean this is so important let's see what live cattle is doing live cattle made a peak denouced stolen yeah so I'm looking at a rotation through the inflation report I'll be back the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom o'brien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xau hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom o'brien's gold report news letter now at tfnn.com are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom o'brien is here to help tom o'brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC tom o'brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis in our gear to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom o'brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 8664767523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american ntsx under the symbol vgz so let me just go through a couple of things that i was asked about so the uh triple m triple m traded down to the 92s about three weeks or so ago had a big gap up spike and has not filled that gap at all in fact it's made a higher high it's down today down three at 101.50 and this just speaks to a couple of things first of all let me explain what i want you to do is coincidentally having been asked about this it's just purely coincidental that i'm also going to use this as an example so in the chapel wave you see we're coming down here this is a trough e and as soon as it rallies it still remains a trough e but the moment that this low of the week of 24th of march at 105.48 he's taken out you've got to be real careful um in naming this because that becomes a leg after the downside i also like to have a look back because if there was a chapel wave incident restart on the downside you could have an alternate count this would become e slash b a and this becomes f slash b but in the meantime look what happened it makes a low at 92.38 the week of the second of uh june there's a weekly chart have a look at this you see this huge spike and you see that i cannot put a leg a here why cannot i not put a leg a here because i have to wait i don't know that that's the low bar i can only start the count after a trough is made so if there is the next day if the low is not 92.38 but 92.39 that becomes a trough even though it's one penny i can start the wave count so this is wrong in fact let me do this because this is a good example this is not right this is not a leg a because i can only start the count after i've made the trough that's a leg a because there's after the trough over there this is now a brand new a weekly a over there so okay that's number one number two is i remember i think it was sue that called a long time ago i was looking at a triple m and i say you know i i don't like the action of triple m i'd be real careful i think it was now where what i should have made a note where it was i think it was was it in the last was it may yeah i maybe it was somewhere over there anyway it was in the hundred and four hundred and five area and i said just be real careful and then i made a peak c1 c2 the implication is that it didn't go by one penny higher than peak c it stole just under it in other words it went to 190 oh it's 190 it's a little hard to see 107.30 the week of the 18th of uh april uh there we are 107.30 and then the week of the 25th of april it goes to 107.30 down in exact if it went one penny higher that would have been a leg d so because it did that and the magnate was still good and there was a little bump in the stochastic and the on balance volume i said we can call that a peak c2 and then i put a red plus sign above it to say it's going to act exactly like a down arrow but there could be another running to even go to a peak c3 or even a d but be ready that this could turn down and it could be quite sharp well of course it did turn down did make that double top it went to 103 point i said 103 105 point what 83 no wait a minute oh 107.30 that went to 106.83 there so that's like a c2 i didn't put that in i'm going to put that in right now just to show you how the chamois works it is a methodology that needs to be repeated over and over because you don't want to break rules the whole idea of methodology is to stick to the rule this is a rule that was broken on the whole idea of peak d's a long long time i'm talking about when i used to do hand charting still so certainly the early 80s so the rule of thumb being that this acts like a double top do the measure the vertical measure to see if it's weakening and of course it was you can go down a lot deeper well lo and behold we went down to the low of 92.38 that was the week of the first of june then it was a big spike and this is just telling me that there are you know and triple m is a cyclical uh three m is called uh it is in the in the in the area it isn't a heavy duty like like steel or anything but it's like i would consider it to be in the in the area of cyclicals so this to me i normally i would draw a rectangle like this right there right rectangle and say this could climb even in a shorter time span this is a daily chart to a leg d sometimes it doesn't in the exact same time so in the daily chart well this didn't this just went a and then still and the idea is it can go after that flagpole turned down if it's making higher highs and higher lows it can go just under right on or just above the previous high then you've got to be careful because if it breaks and closes below a halfway point of this red long rectangle formation there would be a 101 let's go to 101 let's go to 101 right now that says it could go all the way back down to this low right here and that's the low of 97.29 the week of the 6th of june but look what happened this high was on the second of this is a daily chart second of june was 155 the high on friday was one 104.89 just barely above and now it's pulling back so i'm just going to suggest i think that triple m is attempting now to form some kind of a base to participate in any rally later this year which i think is going to happen uh sometime this summer we could get the next phase to the upside but at the same time just be a little careful so if you're being along anywhere from under say 98 i'd say i i put that in the that's good category if it gets it closes under 98 i'd say hey you know what just if you had a stop in and you're prepared to hold that stop of two points say i'd keep that but under 108 makes me a little nervous because it says it's giving up everything that it's gained this is a good sign that it's a rally but it's also a sign that says look at the weekly the weekly 9th breed moving averages way under the 14th it is improving the magnies improving the stochastics improving the on balance volume is not and that just says could be choppy be careful but that monthly chart is just horrendous so i i suspect that in 2023 this year sometime you will see chopple m and the 114s maybe even higher 116 is 118 is the 200 period no so 118 is the black 14 period moving average of the monthly chart but that's that's that's it next question came in about oh we want to we want to see sx huh c sx i haven't looked at that for a little while c sx very nice rally huh look at that so it didn't take out the starting point here for the buy signal to buy mode which went to a d when it pulled back so the starting point was 30 29.93 it runs all the way to a peak d second peak d in about three or four three or four weeks and it goes to 3307 on the 22nd of may pulls back didn't take that out so i have no choice but and remember i can't use the low bar let me just double check uh this a makes the low cannot be the high as well except in the instant restart at 2d so this is an a right a and we've got to receive is that an opportunity to see could be i'll be back in a moment thousand faces tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's 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front page of tfnn.com if i could look at vgz and i and you've traded it for 10 years all i can say is you're the expert i have it doesn't look great to me but at 0.53 i can see it pulling back to the 0.45 level um and then i think it needs to rally but the monthly chart is starting to improve enough that i can say possibly by late july maybe august i think it could be retesting the 0.70s uh to the 0.80s if this if it doesn't close below 0.45 that's if it closes under 45 0.45 it's a problem now you i think you have the best you've traded for 10 years you're definitely the best person to to pick out i'm sure you'll be able to pick out a bottom is this the bottom no i think it's trying to establish some kind of a bottom it's not there yet so a couple of things let me just review uh so the dow is actually down sharper than i would have liked to have seen down 340 if it was together with the s and p down 56 instead of down 37 i said okay we are in a process now that's going to make it really hard to rally but i think that there's just enough areas of uh support let's say we can have a sudden spike to the upside i don't think we're going to take out the 34,588 high in the in the dow we have now got no trading position in the s in the u d o w three times long we've taken our profits now we're sitting on the side for that position we've still got a core position from october and i i i i just i pondered this all weekend should i start a position in the short side and i i didn't i said i am pretty top phase and the nine over the 14 the average just says don't fall they could still be some precious up spikes don't have to take out the high up spikes if you are stunned and rolling over the process have a wonderful rest of the day everybody's back in town stay tuned great programming coming up steve is back whoo