 What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update today's Friday, November 8th Hope everybody had a great week of trading. We are reporting live from Las Vegas, Nevada Our one and only dr. Chad Searsie brought the heat talking about the iron duck at the traders expo here and So we're heading out tomorrow. So it's been a been a good week Met some that's good people good traders So if you ever get the chance make sure you come out to a trading event like this It's a great place to interact with other traders Let's jump in starting with who got caught being hot and This week goes to Thomas Gerard. Hope I'm saying that right Thomas But Thomas is a is the newer trader and he continues to ask a lot of great questions Just getting feedback posting a lot and and you know just just the fact of asking all those questions Not only helps him learn, but I know is helping some other newer traders as well So Thomas keep up the heat. You got caught being hot Let's jump into the alerts starting with Monday the fourth and our first trade was an opening trade that we did in SPX and we did an iron duck now with implied volatility so low That's when we really need to go further out to get the kind of the risk reward that we're looking for on these ducks So we went out to 21 days to expiration Gave us a max profit of 610 which is also Where we will exit if we get to that point on a on the downside on the loss point and then at that point We're still holding our other iron duck and SPX with nine days, which we later took off this week in it in a alert I'll get to her in a minute, but let's go to the platform and take a look at SPX at this one So here's where we're at prices moved even higher since we put this on so you can see we're nearing the beak profit there Still got a lot of time left if we move our break even over to just at the base of the duck beak You can see that you can see there's still over 33% chance that price can get back down here into that max profit area So we're not looking to take that off yet if this gets down to under 10% chance of getting back into the max profit We will just take it off and move on but for now we're gonna be holding Next trade was a rolling just in trade in Ford slash NG which is our net gas So we've got two pieces in that gas still we've got the two different sets of short strangles I got down to 21 days to expiration So we rolled one of those out to January and then we're still holding the other one in In the previous cycle now we're down to 17 days to expiration Which you know technically as far as kind of timing we could have or you know Potentially should have rolled the other one as well, but I'm just giving it over the weekend To see if we can squeeze a little bit more juice out of it before we roll that second piece So if we go to Natty gas, here's the one that we just rolled You can see prices come down since we did that so we've we've made back a little bit of profit since we did that roll Still got a decent buffer to the downside Natty gas has been I mean just look at this thing huge swings and Which has actually been good It's kind of got us back into center of these two positions and then here's the other one in the previous cycle You can see we're over 50% of max profit and again, I'm just holding this over the weekend We will roll this Monday To the next expiration cycle and just continue to work our way back to profits in Natty gas Next trade rolling just in trade in Apple. So this is a long put vertical We've we've continued to hold for that short Delta exposure. Unfortunately Apple has been extremely strong So we went ahead and rolled this out To adjust our strikes get us back to that positive theta position Had I had a question about this in the community this week. So let me address that let's go to Apple So we rolled this to you know Kind of bring price back into range because when price is in range and you can see when I move this price slice Look at the theta right there if it's inside of our range You're seeing a positive theta number meaning as those top options decay as we get closer to expiration That's working in our favor, but watch when I move the price slice out of range You'll see that that theta numbers start to go negative. So, you know, we're not as soon as it goes as soon as it gets out of range We're not gonna we're not gonna make any adjustments. You don't want to over adjust But price had run quite a bit higher and so we're getting down in November to the last week of expiration anyway And so we went ahead and rolled this out to get that price back into range Get that to get that theta number back to being positive working in our favor And just to continue to keep that short Delta exposure in our portfolio So that's where we're at on Apple in regards to the rest of our portfolio We've got about two and a half to one on our short Delta to our theta So we like to keep it in that range of kind of one to one to five to one in that range somewhere Just keeping some short Delta in you know for the case where we do see some some downside velocity Obviously when the market is just continuing to rip higher like it has You know that short Delta hurts. I mean, you know, we have not had a down ticket in October. It doesn't feel like so Obviously that with that short Delta is gonna work against you But you know, it's kind of a we talked about this in the community It's kind of a double-edged sword, you know when the market's going up You wish you didn't have any but when the market goes down you wish you had more So that's why we always just keep some short Delta in our portfolio You know, we're gonna it's gonna work against us on the way up But it's gonna benefit us on the way down and especially if we have a big move down That's when it that's when it really comes into play. So That is the game plan Next trade a opening adjusting trade in ZB So we had a short strangle in ZB and then price kind of moved out of its range a little bit So we added another short strangle just to collect some more credit kind of widen out our overall break-evens on the trade So if we go to ZB ZB bonds been really weak And so here's the here's the one that we have that we already had on and you can see price has moved out of the out of the Range here got some questions about, you know, are we gonna adjust this one? Well, what we do is we look at how much value is left in that untested side So if we look at just the calls you can see you can see we still have a decent amount a little bit A decent amount of premium left In those options, so we're not looking to roll those calls down yet If price continues much lower than then that's what we'll do roll those calls Down lower, but for now, we're just holding now. Here's that from the alert Here's the one we just added just another centered strangle You can see prices moved a little off-center and we're down a little bit because implied volatility has gone up on that one But still obviously well within range close to center. So just holding that piece at this point Next trade opening trade in RUT. So we put on a weekly double calendar we did this with nine days to expiration just because that was the Available options in RUT doesn't have as many expiration cycles as like SPX So we went ahead and did a couple days later with nine days to expiration on the front week 24 days on the back week And and so we are still in that. Let's take a look at RUT on the platform and I did this in RUT because we've already got a Iron con or an iron duck and SPX so I didn't want to muddy the waters and the same symbol too much So that's that's one of the reasons we chose RUT here So you can see we've got a little bit of profit here in this weekly double calendar, but just holding on for more We're gonna hold this all the way up close to expiration unless we have to bail early So we've got six days to expiration. So late next week will be when we look to potentially take that off Next trade opening trade in IYR. So implied volatility had a big spike earlier this week in IYR So we went ahead and sold some premium Defined our risk using a kind of a tight iron condor with IYR being you know under a hundred dollar symbol We looked at doing a short strangle, but the buying power just didn't really make a lot of sense And you can't do a wide iron condor because the price is too too low So we did we'd like to do kind of a tight iron condor in cases like this So if we take a look at what that looks like on the risk profile You can see we're up about a hundred bucks on the trade But just waiting for some more profit before we do anything there and when we tighten these in like this We want to we like to book profits a little bit earlier. So it's almost kind of like in between a Butterfly and an iron condor where you know butterflies. We're managing like 20 or 25 percent of max profit and Iron condors. We're looking at 30 or 40. Well, this is kind of in between so kind of 25 to 30 percent of max profit Is where we're looking to take that one off Next trade closing trade in CL oil booked another nice profit in oil Oil continues to be a great trading vehicle very profitable for us So we we are out of oil at that point Next trade rolling adjusting trading QQQ. So one of our sets of short call verticals We rolled from November to December and adjusted the a strikes appropriately kind of similar to what we just talked about an apple Keeping that short dealt the exposure getting us back to a positive theta position And so we still have one in November which will address this and potentially roll that next week And then here's the one that we did roll so prices moved up a little bit So but we're still within range from where we rolled that one Next trade we did a opening earnings iron duck in Roku. And so this just had two days to expiration when we put it on Roku made a pretty decent move down after earnings. Let's take a look at the chart Rok you made a big move down after earnings and kind of held and then Today Friday it bounced a little bit higher got right in our duck head and we shot that duck right in the head So that's nice trade in Roku Next trade opening adjusting trade in ZW in wheat So we added an iron condor in wheat and then we took off our previous one So we booked over 50% of max profit on that piece of the trade and then reopened one in the next cycle I mean technically you can you can kind of think of this as rolling even though It's two different trades. It's two different alerts Essentially, we're just closing one out and reopening it in the next cycle with new strikes Just still working our way back to profits in wheat So if we take a look at our iron condor and wheat still fairly centered just waiting for some more time to pass on that one Next trade closing trade in forward slash 6b So had had a nice little down movement in 6b had to make a couple adjustments to this trade But just staying mechanical ended up booking a profit of 250 after adjustments So we're out of 6b and let's take a look at FXB the corresponding ETF I was looking to potentially get back into this. Yeah implied volatility is popping back up So next week assuming implied volatility doesn't crash. We're gonna we're gonna get back into 6b Sell some more premium. You can't trade FXB the options just aren't great in there you know, they're They're a little bit wide 20 cents wide. It's just 6b is a much better trading vehicle So look for a look for an entry into 6b early next week Next trade closing trade in SPX. So that was our other iron duck that we had on in SPX This one still had six days to expiration But with price being so strong it just ran up that beak And so we just went ahead and took that off book that beak profit and Redeploy that care have that capital to redeploy You know, it's still a six day. So we're not gonna hold the trade for six more days When the chance of us just getting that big profit are very high, you know Over 90% chance of taking that big profit. So we just want to take that and run and use that capital elsewhere Next trade opening trade in booking BKNG another earnings iron duck and this one with just one day to expiration So we put this on on Thursday and then we closed it out today on Friday and What we did on Friday today was we just let it expire. And so if we go to Booking you could see what happened after earnings is oops That doesn't look right. Oh Yeah, okay. So yeah, it is down. Oh, that was before earnings. That's right. Okay, so That big down day was actually in reference to Expedia announcing earnings booking had a big drop before they even announced Are they announced? Look like it may be a little bit of an overreaction. So it actually opened up the next day. So when we put on our iron duck We ended up right here Wave in the beak. So we ended up just letting these options expire booked a profit of $202 per contract on that one Which we just did one contract in the alert So nice another nice duck trade there Next trade rolling adjusting trade in DIA. So one set of our short call verticals in DIA We've rolled from November to December kind of a similar situation to QQQ just adjusted those strikes Extend duration keep that short delta in our portfolio and get that back to a positive theta So if we look at DIA, we've got two pieces on here This is the one we just rolled you can see prices right here right where we rolled it today The other piece here with three contracts Prices just right right around the break even just outside the break even so again just holding that for that short delta exposure Next trade. Oh is the closing trade in Roku? So I already went over that and then lastly the closing trade in Booking so book those two iron duck profits. So those are all the alerts Let's take a look at some of the other positions starting with ES Another short delta position long put vertical that one's basically at max loss at this point So you can't get assigned on futures until after they expire. So there's no hurry here So we're just gonna hold this one pretty close all the way up to expiration If by chance in the next next week we get a big move down in the SNPs That'll benefit us, but we can't really get hurt if it continues higher at this point From where it is. So we're just gonna hold on to that into late next week GC I mentioned gold. I mentioned Natty. I mentioned bonds. I mentioned weed. I mentioned apple booking John Deere We've got another short delta position here prices just outside the break even just looking for some more downside to benefit that IWM same thing another short delta position Long put vertical here. Just looking for some downside to benefit that IWR I mentioned QQQ rut SMH. We've got this adjusted short strangle You can see price has moved out of our range But similar to what I was talking about before if we look at just the untested side You can see there's still some decent premium left in those puts So we are not looking to roll those puts up quite yet I'd love to add to this one, but I mean IV percentiles at one IV ranks at one There's no premium in these things. So not looking to add to that, but we'll just continue to manage our current piece SPY we've got an iron condor Price is hanging out up here in the upper end of the range So just looking for some downside to get back into center and some more theta to decay in our favor on that one and then XLK another Short delta position. This is also a long put vertical Just looking for some downside to get back into range there just outside the break even and then XRT We've got a what we put on as a short strangle. Originally. We adjusted it into a straddle See since we adjusted it were up about 127 bucks We're down a tiny bit still overall in trade, but in good shape well within range So just holding on to that until we get out see kind of a a big spike and then a contraction in that implied volatility so we're a good shape there just looking to hold that and And look to take that off once we get into profits So like I said next week look for 6b look first to get back into oil. Let's take a look at actually Let's take a look at USO Where's the implied volatility on that today? Yes, it's it's it's really starting to Just steadily decline so we get a little bit of a pop and implied volatility We may look to get it back into oil next week But definitely 6b and then continue to manage these we'll look for some more earnings iron ducks and other potential Iron ducks and ETFs or indices as well Everybody have a great weekend. Talk to you next week. See ya