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Published on Nov 19, 2016
There were two consensus views heading into the US Presidential Election count night. Firstly that Hillary Clinton would win the election, after all Nate Silver had her penned at a 71% probability whilst the New York Times was touting 85% and so were the betting markets discounting a Hillary win with Trump trading on Betfair at 6.6 whilst Hillary stood at just 1.17 an hour before the polls closed. Then there were Hillary's wall street backers who had all but discounted their candidate winning.
Secondly, IF the highly improbable doomsday scenario happened and Trump won, then the prevailing view was that it would result in a market panic, the mother of all stock crashes, a catastrophe, a stock market armageddon blood bad. That and the gold price would soar as the US Dollar along with stocks nose dived. This was the Trump win market script consensus view right across the financial media and beyond, and one does not need to look far for this prevalent doom view from the FT and New York Times downwards as the following google search of 7th November 2016 illustrates of what the market commentariat expected to happen if the unthinkable Trump win materialised.
The stock market had been marking time for much of October but as election day drew nearer, the polls and odds still all suggested Hillary would definitely win which resulted in a 2 day rally of over 400 points into the close of trading on the 8th of November 2016.