 Hello, and good morning. My name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm and welcome to this video on my thoughts on the dollar Swiss Frank and I'm going to be going over my technical analysis as well as some fundamental and sentiment analysis Regarding potential Sell on this trade right so first of all from a technical perspective we have prices have come up into this supply zone and We know areas of supply and demand are areas of potential value. So if we're looking to get short on this trade right then We are saying that the Swiss Frank is potentially undervalued against the US dollar, right? So once we've determined that prices are in a supply and demand zone that we want to be that we're interested in then We need to determine the supply and demand order equation And what I mean by that is we need to decide from a technical perspective and the motives and understand the motives behind Why traders would be buying or selling within this area and why there should be more sell orders or supply? or more Demand or buy orders within a certain location So we can break that down into three different disciplines or discipline being support and resistance, but Three different ways of breaking down this area right and the first area would be traders who trade Horizontal support and resistance right from technical perspective. So we've got you know the support There's support there undersides we've got some resistance right and so traders are going to be looking at this area here and They're going to be willing Right to enter sure right, which means that they're going to be taking their money out of you know their account Right and then as soon as they press sell their money is now in the market, you know sell order, right? So there's willing selling now willing to enter the market and the same principle applies to traders who trade diagonal support and resistance you have So you might a little bit you've got Start here and then you've got traders that would join up that lower high there and then project into the future And this aligns with this horizontal Area of Resistance so you have horizontal traders horizontal resistance traders getting in here You have diagonal resistance traders getting in here as well. So it's you know net net We should have some supply here. So willing supply coming in right at this area Then you have dynamic support and resistance Dynamic support and resistance are basically moving averages right and one of the popular moving averages Is the 100 moving average which we do have? Right aligned, which is a green line And this is an EMA or an SMA I can't remember which one is but we have it aligned within this area here as well as you can see if we zoom in Right prices have actually touched the green 100 EMA or SMA, right? so Traders will be trading the underside and the bounce of that dynamic Resistance, right? So net net we should have from a technical perspective, right? A lot of willing Supply if you want to know A bit more about forced and willing supply Did a course recently and the link is in the description box below and I go into a lot more detail as to and With some trade examples as well Regarding willing and forced supply, right? so You're gonna have traders willing to enter short based on This area and also obviously, you know, if they see the white top of price action Some traders will enter on pending orders alone at this area. It's ninety six Zero point nine eight. Sorry, you know six level, etc. Right, so this will be a cluster Round this area of willing supply. All right, and then we've got obviously for supply Which I'll go into again in the training video if you want to have a watch So technically this is a great setup, right? So really good setup and Something that I would consider taking but From a fundamental perspective It's not the Trade that I am looking to take at this particular point in time simply because we have the dollar Federal reserve is just raise interest rates. So You know, we're looking at dollar strength at the moment The Swiss National Bank have come out and said that they think that the Swiss Frank is highly valid, right? If we go to news article here, and I know this is the Euro Swiss But pretty much the Swiss National Bank retains Frank Frank high value Language, right? So they think in general that their currency is is quite highly valued and they want a cheaper Swiss Frank, right? So if they want to cheaper Swiss Frank that means that What they're looking for is for prices to go a bit higher now the market moves and markets move for For a number of reasons One being fundamental analysis and value, right? That's how did we determine value beyond a price chart? Secondly is a risk sentiment. So risk on or risk off and the thirdly is the zero sum gain, which is Basically things like stop hunting right and market manipulation. Those are that those are the key drivers of price movement within a chart not Technical analysis price doesn't move simply because you see a pinball or a doji candle at a level of support or resistance If you want to have an extra edge in the market, you need to really understand what, you know drives the markets And to have that edge on your side as well as a technical edge as well And it will there it should improve your trading. No no doubt so My reasons for not entering this trade right at the moment is Simply because I want to be a buyer of the dollar the seller of the Swiss Frank So I'm waiting for some sort of pullback into a demand zone, which at the moment We haven't got one but it could be created in the future before looking to get Long now does that mean I will definitely never be a buyer of the Swiss Frank over the US dollar There are moments when you can take advantage of potential pullbacks and this week we have the Some news today we have a lot of our FOMC members speaking, but the most important one is the Fed chair pal right so Depending on obviously what you know pal says then You know that could or could not move the markets But we also have data coming out on Friday, which is average hourly earnings. We've got the non-farm Employment change and we have obviously the unemployment change now depending on the data and what is forecasted compared to what? The actual is will depend on whether I may take advantage or you could take advantage of Some short-term sentiment on no negative sentiment on the US dollar Right and if you want to know how to You know trade news in the way that I do and look for you know news deviation trades Then there is a link to the fundamental analysis free course, which I have produced for you you take you to this page Right and if you go to videos 9 and 10 Talk about news trading Establishing the theme and his news priced in and also news trading and calculating news Deviation if you are still trying to trade News in the typical way as far as our positive number Right means buy and a negative number means sell You are a severe disadvantage right the news Trading just doesn't work that way now if it did then I guess we all be retired you know by now so Depending on what happens obviously today fed chest Speech as well as Friday's data. You could want to take advantage of some Short-term Or even long term you never know prices may pull back You know all the way down here depending, you know on on on the data, etc Right, we have no idea But what we want to do is just as traders put the probabilities on our side, right? and Doesn't like I said doesn't mean that this won't you know pull back But if you are looking to buy the dollar right and sticking to your fundamental principles then You know basically it's looking for a pullback before looking to potentially get long or getting long and Or taking advantage of some short-term negative sentiment on the dollar depending on the data. So if you have any questions Feel free to leave a comment in the section box below or email me at info at trading 180.com. Hope you have a great trading week and take care