 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Baddon. Today's date is Monday, the 23rd of November, 2020, and the time has just gone 8.58 GMT. And it's been a fairly positive start to the European trading session, not long ago, not too long ago, in the last couple of hours, an hour and a half, we heard some extra additional positive news in relation to a possible vaccine for COVID-19. AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford are working on a drug, and it was announced that, on average, the effectiveness rate is just over 70%. In two trials or rounds of the drug, one of the results was 90% effective, while the other one was 62%. On a more practical basis, it can be stored and transported at minus three degrees south, minus three degrees, so it makes it much more practical from a logistical point of view and a production point of view. So even though the headline effectiveness rate isn't as high as that posted by the likes of Moderna and Pfizer and BioNTech, it's still actually looking quite promising. So this story has kind of helped stock markets gain ground. Sentiment was reasonably positive on index futures markets anyways before this was announced, so this has just been another shot in the arm to the overall sentiment in the equity markets. We capping on results we heard last week, there was a lot of optimism in relation to the Pfizer and BioNTech are working on. Same goes for with the Moderna drug. There is speculation and there's hope that the Pfizer and BioNTech drug could be available, could receive authorization by the UK regulator this week. Back in the last week, Pfizer and BioNTech requested that the FDA, the US regulator, approve their drugs, so things are moving in the right direction. So I think overall in stock markets, the drug story, the vaccine story continues to be the headline news. Also, what's going to be in play in the next few weeks and months probably is going to be the US stimulus package. At the back end of last week, there were going to be the recommencement of talks between Democrats and Republicans in relation to the stimulus package. Keep in mind, it was dragging on for weeks and months before the US election. There's probably no guarantee that's going to be resolved quickly, but be aware that that's going to be talked about for the time being. Before the US presidential election, there was a huge gap between what both sides wanted. Certain elements of the Democratic Party, the Democrats wanted a $2 trillion package where the some Republicans were aiming for some in the region of a few hundred million. So there's a huge gap between what both sides wanted, but things are now going to change with the US election. Now I will run through the major events of the week and then move on to the major markets. The Weakhead article can be found on our website if you go to CBCMarkets.com under insights, latest news and analysis, scrolling down. Today we've already had the figures out from Daily Mail, the newspaper group. We've also had manufacturing numbers and service numbers coming out from Germany and France. We're also going to be having manufacturing and service numbers coming out from the UK shortly. Tomorrow, AO World, the online retailer, you can specialize in electrical goods and the likes. They have funded numbers out. They are one of the beneficiaries of the lockdown because e-commerce just went through the roof at the expense of traditional retailers. Best Buy over in the US, they've managed to do quite well, particularly once again on the online front because e-commerce has really taken off. Compass Group, they've funded numbers coming out tomorrow as well. HB over in the US have four quarter numbers. US Consumer Confidence, we posted on Tuesday, tomorrow on Wednesday. We have numbers out from Deer. To be honest, it's a pretty quiet week in terms of corporate stories and it's not going to be overly busy. On Wednesday, we have the Fed Minutes from the US. Let's face it, the Federal Reserve are exactly going to be doing a whole lot in terms of their alteration to monetary policy anytime soon. So the Minutes from the update, she gives a bit of a better idea of what the Fed are thinking. Also Wednesday, we have US Personal Spending and Final GDP, the third quarter GDP that is. The spending figure is going to be interesting because this would be the kind of acid test of how willing are Americans to go out and actually spend money. Now in the last few days, there's been an increase, there's been continued worried about the rate of increased COVID cases in the US. A number of states, including California and New York City, have had bringing in tighter restrictions. So we could see a tapering off an economic activity from here on. But the spending figures will be interesting to see how much Americans are actually willing to go out and spend money. There's also going to be a spending review from the UK in relation to how much money has been basically thrown at the COVID-19 crisis. What kind of taxes could we be looking at as a way of recouping that? On Thursday, we have third quarter numbers coming out from Aviva, the insurance company. To be honest, this week, as you can see by the calendar, it's not going to be overly exciting to be perfectly honest. And if you do see any action in terms of volatility, it's likely to be in the first few days of the week because Thursday, the US markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. And there will be some markets will have limited hours in the US on Friday. And we could even see, we often see a lot of American traders and investors take both days off or at least one day off. So around the kind of Thanksgiving itself and the Friday afterwards, tend to be pretty quiet. Starting off now, the FTSE 100, I did the usual structure where I do the major indices, the major currency pairs, and the major commodities. So as we can see here from the FTSE 100, it's been a strong upward trend since basically from late 6th to late October, the highs of last week, the highest ever seen since June. We've had a bit of a pullback in results, but we are actually higher. So we're still very much in this kind of upward trend. If you press that higher from here and we take out the highs of last Monday, we could then be looking at targeting the highs that were achieved in June that comes into play at 6,513. Any moves to the downside could find some support from the lows of last week in around 6,258 or maybe down towards a kind of 6,200 mark. But if we move below that, we could be heading back down for this red line here to turn the movie average and that comes into play at 6,070. And notice how that metric acted nicely in support back in the middle of the month. And if a metric has been in importance in the past, it makes it more likely it'll be of importance in the future, although there are no guarantees. Taking a look at what's going on over in Germany on the decks. So as you can see here, we're currently basically kind of running up against the highs that were achieved a couple of Mondays ago back in the start of the month, which is also driven by vaccine optimism. This could be quite significant if you break above this, just because there's been a few occasions where we tried to move higher. We can't really get higher. The upward trend is not very much in play. It seems to me that the markets can clearly retest in the highs of a couple of Mondays ago. If you do manage to break beyond this level, we could be looking at retargeting the highs of early September in a 13,462. I keep in mind those highs that were achieved back in early September, they are the highest level achieved since late February. And if you take out those highs, we could then be looking at retesting the old-time highs, which were achieved just before the crisis really took hold in Europe. And those highs are in around 13,786. And at the downside, should we move lower? Keep in mind that the trend has been very much a strong upward trend the last few weeks and months. If we move lower, we could be likely heading back down towards these moving averages here. We got the water moving average is the yellow line here, and the 50 moving averages is the blue line here. And the two metrics are not too far away from each other. And as we can see in the last few weeks and months, all those metrics are in and around those metrics, but not precisely on those lines. We have seen both support and resistance from those metrics in the last few weeks and months. So if we do have a fairly decent move to the downside, we could find support from this general zone here in around 12,825, down to around 12,740. So that area could act as support should we move lower. But keep in mind how much ground we travel between the lows of late October and here. So even if we do go back to this zone, this general area, the upward trend would still be intact. Looking at what's going on over the US, I'll start off with the Dow Jones up to the seminar. At the very beginning of the month, we skyrocketed. We had another major move with the upside last Monday. So I think you're still very much looking to the upside on the Dow Jones. If you could look to press on higher from here because we're currently trading around 29,465. If you press on higher from here, we could be looking at re-testing the 30,000 zone. And if you go beyond that, that'll be fresh all-time highs. And that should pave the way for further gains. A move to the downside could find support from this area here in around 28,868. And a move below that could take us back down towards blue line here, the fifth-day movie average at 28,181. And once again, you can see on a few occasions that metric active lycea support in the last few weeks and months. So once again, it could be of importance in the future. Take a look at what's going on with the S&P 500. Similar scenario here whereby an all-time high was achieved at the beginning of the month or towards the start of November. The highest ever achieved in the middle of the month didn't re-test the all-time high. So we're still in the upward trend. If you can look to press on higher from here, we could be looking at heading towards 3600. If you go beyond that, we could be looking at re-testing the highs of mid-November in at 3,640. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at re-testing the all-time highs at 3,674. Any pullbacks could find support from this zone here at 3,511. And if you go below that, we could be looking at heading back down towards this blue line here, the fifth-day movie average. Similar scenario, we saw actors both support and resistance in October. We saw a fair bit of consolidation around that metric in early October and actually nicely as support back in September as well. And even if you go below that, we could find support from this yellow line here, the water-removing average at 3,382. In a similar scenario, and actually nicely as support back in late September, granted, had a quite aggressive move below it in October. But once it got back above it, it then started to resume its supporting role there to keep an eye out for that metric too. Turning our attention, though, towards the big currency pairs starting off at pound-dollar, Brexit talks are going to be, once again, in focus. There's a report over the weekend, one of the UK newspapers talking about how Boris Johnson is gearing up for a big intervention on the issue. So it looks like the Prime Minister is keen to get a deal, but there's nothing to caveat. There's nothing as agreed until everything is agreed. So there is room for talks to break down. But this here is the pound versus the US dollar. There's major political uncertainty in relation to the UK's future relationship with the EU. But if you look at the price action, the markets are behaving as if a deal is going to be achieved. In fact, today's level was the highest level seen in pound-dollar, this is early September. So we're talking multi-month highs achieved on the current sphere. It continues to be an awkward trend of the last few weeks and months. If you press on higher front here, we could be targeting the highs just beyond September. And if you go beyond the highs of September, we could be heading to one spot 3515, a level last seen about a year ago. It was in December last year, 13515 was achieved. Any moves at a downside could find support in around the one spot 32 area. And if you go below that, we could find support from this zone here in one spot 3106. That is the pound versus the dollar coming onto the euro versus the US dollar. Euro dollar as the broader upward trend of the last few months remains in place. Keep in mind, it has been kind of range bound recently, but nonetheless, while we hold above this blue line here, the fifthly moving average, it's like a kind of wider uptrend could remain intact. Should we change that? Get a better view of it. It's like a wider upward trend. If you can continue to hold above this blue line here, it's like a broader upward trend of the last few weeks and months is going to remain intact. And should that be the case, we could be heading back towards this level here, the highest of very September just north of one spot 20. And keep in mind, the level that was achieved then was actually a multi-year high. It was the highest level in a couple of years. It was the highest level since May 2018. A few months have drifted a bit lower on the euro versus the dollar. Support could come into play from the fifthly moving average, this blue line here, in one spot 1775. And the move below that could take us back down toward this zone here down around one spot 1612, down in a one spot 1602. And this area could be a fairly important area of, we can see a few times it was supported nicely, this general area is here. So if you have a break below that, that could be quite significant, and it could take us to potentially actually back down to the one spot in the area. Coming up to Gorgon. Gorgon's been relatively quiet. Obviously, I had a major move to the downside at the beginning of the month when the kind of first big vaccine story broke. So I put major pressure on the gold market, but notice how the lows on Monday the 9th still didn't manage to take up the lows that were achieved in late September. So it seems to me that the kind of 1848, 1850 zone is quite significant. If you can hold above that, perhaps the kind of the broader upward trend of gold, which has been in place for a while, is going to remain intact, but that's on the kind of the base that if you could hold above 1850, 1848. It is clearly not worth knowing that the kind of the recent trend that actually sessions has been in the downside. So if you break below 1848, it could take us back down towards the kind of 1800 mark. And it kind of moves below that. So we take a look below, we take out 1800. It could easily put us, sorry, take out 1848. It could easily take us back down towards this area here in around the kind of 1800 zone. Any move to the upside could run into resistance from, well, first of all, keep an eye out for this blue line. The fifthly moving average in at 1898 just south on the psychology port 1900 mark. We can notice here how the fifthly moving average actually has support in early September and actually had resistance on a couple of occasions. Now granted, when I had the certain volatility in this area, it completely kind of just, you know, broke above it and then broke, well, back below it, but keep an eye on that on the metric. And same goes for this yellow line here, the 180 moving average in at 1910. And once again, we can see that actually support and resistance in the last few weeks and months. And lastly, coming on to the oil market. Now oil has done quite well recently. You know, the oil market tends to kind of move in step with the overall kind of sentiment about how the particular perceived perception of the health of the global economy and all the kind of vaccine hopes have really kind of spurred on buying in oil recently. In fact today, we've had a level last seen in early September, so we're talking, you know, multi-month highs, multi-week highs, we've racked up in the oil markets. This here is Brent crude, the January contract. And if you continue to press on higher from here, we're going to retest the highs of August and that comes to play in at $47.31 and you move the downsides. I couldn't find support in this yellow line here. We wanted to move the average in 43, 360. And once again, again, this is something that's not metric, metric, actually supported on three occasions last week. And the only thing we've got about that similar scenario, this Lunar here, the fifth moving average in the 42 spot 37 could act as support also. We know of similar scenario. And actually, as you know, we saw active resistance in the middle of October and early November in active support. So please keep an eye out for those metrics. That's all from this video. Thank you for listening. Have a good training week and good luck.